Researching on-line:Where is it coming from, where is it heading to?

Olaf HofmannManaging DirectorSKOPOS Germany

• Olaf Hofmann, Psychology Graduate, 35 years of age

• Chairman of the German On-line Research Society

• Managing director of SKOPOS Market Research

• Founded in 1995 by Olaf Hofmann & Jörg Korff

Who’s talking?

• SKOPOS has been researching on-line since 1998

• Strategic partnership with dooyoo, an internet opinion portal since 2000

• Branches in Cologne, London, Paris, Madrid, Rome

• Clients: Ford, GM, BMW, Ericsson, Siemens etc.

Who’s talking?

1. The early days

2. The state of the art

3. Future trends

Preview

Early activities were (mis-)guided by:

• the view that the web would be a cure-all

• over-ambitious expectations

• too many companies entering the market

• Non adherence to established quality standards

The early days

Contrasting prognoses with reality gives an idea of the misconceptions:

• In 1999 a proportion of up to 10% of on-line projects was expected for 2001 for the German market

• The actual proportion in 2001 will be as low as 2 to 3%...

The early days

High pioneering spirit, massive VC investmentsand low barriers to market entry trapped manyonline research providers into:

• a quick-and-cheap (and dirty...) approach

• inappropriate deployment of available technology

• a premature entry into an• extremely small• rapidly growing• quarterly changing• methodologicalwise extremely difficult market

The early days

1. The early days

2. The state of the art

3. Future trends

Preview

• The field has sobered up, the hype has vanished.

• Markets are getting cleared up:

portals, ISPs etc. are either withdrawing or turning into mere data delivery services

• which is good: for them, for us, for you

The state of the art

• Two main camps are discernible:

• Some contest the value of researching on-line

• Others have started sorting out what is feasible on-line and what isn’t

• The latter camp focuses on quality standards...

The state of the art

On-line panels illustrate the development of contemporary research.

From the beginning, they were an important resource. Their advantages:

• simple recruitment

• easy and detailed screening

• quick access

• highly specific target groups

research in hitherto inaccessible domains

The state of the art

The state of the art

However, insufficient attention was paid to the recruitment:

• participants of many panels were passively recruited

• recruitment was hardly controlled for effects of selection

• marketing and market research activities have been mixed

The state of the art

This caused a number of problems:

• High panel mortality

• “professional participants”

• low representativity due to:

• an undefined population

• “incentive hunters”

• low response rates

The state of the art

Several strategies were developed to overcome such problems:

• Combining active recruiting methods (e.g. CATI, web sites, post etc.) attenuates response bias

• Constant adjustment to online-population parameters by means of reference studies (“rotating panel”)

• Permanent evaluation of:

• panellists (panel satisfaction, mortality etc.)

• raw data (checks of consistency and plausibility)

1. The early days

2. The state of the art

3. Future trends

Preview

Beyond the early days-hype, on-line research is coming to be viewed as an integral componentof market research

On-line research is not a stand-alone method nor an alternative to off-line research

Integration and useful extension of researchmethods are the keywords for the future

Future trends

Integration of on-line components into studiesmust turn into advantage the real assets ofon-line tools:

• Improved piloting

• Maximised time & cost efficiency

• Better field control in international studies

Future trends

Integration will work on several levels of mixedoff-line & online studies:

• Off-line recruiting for on-line panels

• Studio tests of on-line materials

• On-line piloting for lab experiments

Future trends

Quality standards will be rigorously adhered to

The quick-and-dirty approach of the old days is nolonger feasible

Current research regulations and codes of practicemust be amended to reflect this development

Future trends

Researching on-line could usefully extend therepertoire of research methods

Most importantly, on-line research should focus onmore than just putting questionnaires to the web

For the first time, data is available on-line that oncecould only be collected in the studio!

New technologies from basic research can beseamlessly transferred to market research

Future trends

Implicit Assessment Technology (IAT) might serve toillustrate the smart new methods:

IAT can be used to measure consumer’s attitudes toproducts, brands or adverts

Future trends

Unlike traditional measures, IAT measures responsetimes during dichotomous classification of products, brands or adverts

Specific response criteria suppress consciouscognition

This yields unbiased data at unrivalled test power Even subtle effects no longer go undetected

Future trends

IAT-based studies will require fewer participants

• reduced field costs

• faster studies

• more complex designs with less effort

An example: context effects on ad placement

Future trends

IAT design

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3Ad contact No ad contact

N=250 N=250 N=250

General recommendations for deployment of on-line research:

• Use of excellent & independent MR Agencies due to lack of in house experience

• start to build a feeling for:

- on-line target groups

- dos & don‘ts of on-line research

- sampling problems in the net

• transition phase:

- use both methods, at the same time for a limited time, costs more for a while, saves money medium term, gives you the opportunity to learn, develop a

feeling

Future trends

Established methods

• vertical panels

• B2B research (ad pre-tests)

• international/global research

• adaptive conjoints & pricing

• IAT is coming in place

Ad hoc marketing research

Future trends

IT decision makers

pregnant women

minorities

• Image tracking

• tracking of ad efficancy

• Any type of tracking (except web site research)

Problematic methods

On-line research is one of the most difficult methods to implement:

Future trends

Need for on-line research

Outcome

Seduction

+_

• Ad banners (self-recruitment)

• Generalisation despite low coverage

• Active recruitment

• Careful handling of target groups

Marketing

Cost reduction Expectations

Difficulties & Challenges