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Understanding China’s Economic and Market Developments: Managing China’s Transition Into Global Benchmarks [Document subtitle, 13.5pt, white or burgundy] 2018 | ftserussell.com
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
2
Executive Summary
Since the introduction of economic reforms some 40 years ago, China’s
economy has metamorphosed into a formidable driver of global growth as it
opens its market to international investors.
This growth has been driven by decades of policy and economic reforms
that has transformed its economy into the second largest in the world.
Its achievement has been based on political stability and long-term reforms
that have urbanized its vast population to drive its expansionary policies
into manufacturing and export-orientated growth.
Large investment in infrastructure and expansion of its cities have
supported the migration of its workforce, although an aging population and
a growing, wealthy middle class have shifted focus towards automation,
robotics and a service-based economy.
China's focus on economic growth has been at the cost of high levels of air,
water and soil pollution which has spurred growth in environmental
initiatives supported by government subsidies and investment
opportunities.
State-owned companies have consolidated in support of the shift in
economic policy. This has led to a spotlight in how companies are
managed, on corporate governance and the adoption of international
accounting principles.
Stock exchanges and regulators are driving change to listing requirements
as well as the way companies report. Regulators have opened the door to
international institutional investors to access equities and the China
Interbank Bond markets. They have expanded the Stock Connect scheme
to include the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and opened Bond
Connect.
All these developments provide opportunities to international investors as
they look to diversify their exposure to a market where the majority of
investors have historically had no access.
FTSE Russell continues to support these investment choices via years of
experience in the mainland China market. As the first international index
provider of mainland Chinese benchmarks and an index product suite that
demonstrates the breadth and depth of China's equity/bond markets, FTSE
Russell leads the way in providing solutions to our clients' needs.
As a result of recent enhancements, China A Shares (available through the
‘Northbound’ Stock Connect route) will be assigned as Secondary
Emerging and will join the FTSE Russell’s global equity benchmarks in
June 2019.
China A Shares
(available through the
‘Northbound’ Stock
Connect route) will be
assigned as Secondary
Emerging and will join
the FTSE Russell’s
global equity
benchmarks in June
2019.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
3
For fixed income, FTSE Russell has recently completed a market
consultation on a proposal to establish a transparent and evidence-driven
country classification framework for the FTSE global fixed income
benchmarks. It will calibrate an annually-reviewed “Market Accessibility
Level” for local currency government bond markets.
As within the equity framework, a Watch List of countries on the cusp of
reclassification will be published and maintained. China government bonds
will be added to this Watch List and assessed against the stated criteria of
the framework for possible inclusion in the flagship investment grade FTSE
World Government Bond Index.
Historic reforms drive China's economic transformation
1978: Economic reforms introduced by Deng Xiaoping: the Third Plenary Session of the
11th
Central Committee of the Communist Party lays the groundwork for future growth.
1979: The Law on Chinese Foreign Equity Joint Ventures allows foreign capital to enter
the country, boosting regional economies.
1980: The Chinese government permits companies to retain profits and set up their own
wage structures, increasing GDP and the pace of urbanization. Shenzhen becomes the
first 'special economic zone'.
1990: The Shanghai stock market reopens for the first time since 1949.
1991: The Shenzhen stock exchange opens.
1996: Renminbi becomes a convertible currency.
2001: China joins the World Trade Organization leading to a deeper integration into the
world economy.
2002: Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme launches.
2005-2006: Non-tradable share reform which increased the number of shares available
to trade and reduced government ownership of listed shares - prior to reforms non-
tradable shares accounted for 64% of total shares outstanding*.
2006: Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme launches.
2011: Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) scheme launches.
2014: Shanghai/Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme launches.
2016: IMF adds renminbi to SDR basket, Shenzhen Stock Connect launches, AIIB
launches.
2017: Bond Connect scheme launches.
2019: Inclusion into the FTSE Russell global equity benchmarks.
Sources: *CSRC, February 2007 and https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/07/brief-history-of-china-
economic-growth/
FTSE Russell has
recently completed a
market consultation on
a proposal to establish a
transparent and
evidence-driven country
classification framework
for the FTSE global
fixed income
benchmarks.
With over 16 years of
experience developing
China market indexes,
FTSE Russell’s China
benchmarks have
become widely
recognized by investors
and ETF issuers
globally as a leading
measure of the China
equity market.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
4
Contents
1. Old to New – China's Giant Steps ...................................................... 5
2. Chinese equity markets: a mirror on ‘New China’ .......................... 16
3. China is adapting its corporate governance framework ................ 19
4. The opportunity set: access to China's domestic market .............. 22
5. Rising star – China's fixed-income market ...................................... 29
6. Foreign investor access to the Chinese onshore bond market ................................................................................................ 34
7. China is opening its equity market to international investors ....... 38
8. FTSE Russell's approach to managing China's transition into global benchmarks .................................................................... 40
9. Appendix ............................................................................................ 48
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
5
1. Old to New – China's Giant Steps
Since the introduction of economic reforms some 40 years ago, China's economy
has metamorphosed into a formidable driver of global growth. From a largely
agrarian society, the country has evolved into a manufacturing powerhouse and
is transitioning under President Xi's guidance into a high-end, service-based
economy.
China is the second largest G20 economy behind the United States (Chart 1).
Chart 1: China a leader among G20 economies
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters Datastream, December 2017.
China has owed its rapid expansion to decades of policy and economic reforms,
the openness of its markets to attract international capital, strong exports and the
substantial urbanization of its society. The country gained from its status as the
manufacturing hub of the developed world where companies set up assembling
plants for re-exports by taking advantage of lower labor costs.
This resulted in one of the largest work-migrant transfers in recent history as rural
migrants, in search of a better life, moved to cities, fueling the country's
spectacular economic boom. To house the growing number of workers, hundreds
of new cities were built or expanded, requiring large investment in infrastructure.
At the beginning of Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms in 1978, about 18% of the
Chinese population lived in urban areas. By 2018, this figure had risen to 57.9%1
and is forecast to approach 80% by 2050, according to United Nations estimates
(Chart 2).
1 Source: Worldometer: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/china-population/
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Ch
ina
Japa
n
Germ
any
Un
ite
d K
ing
dom
Fra
nce
India
Ita
ly
Bra
zil
Ca
nad
a
Kore
a
Ru
ssia
Spain
Austr
alia
Me
xic
o
Indon
esia
Turk
ey
Ne
therl
and
s
Sw
itzerl
and
Saud
i A
rabia
G20 Countries Nominal GDP (USD, billions)
57.9% Chinese live in
urban areas; United
Nations estimates this
to rise to 80% by 2050.
China is the second
largest G20 economy
behind the United
States.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
6
Chart 2: China has rapidly urbanized during the past 50 years
Source: United Nations, 2018.
Transitioning to a service-based economy
By the mid-2000s, China saw its economic dependency on heavy industries
diminish as it moved up the value chain and embraced new technologies. As
living standards improved and salaries increased, Chinese industries shifted
focus towards automation, robotics and a new service-based economy.
Chart 3: A new service-based economy emerges from mid-2000s
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at June 30, 2017.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Urban Population (%)
% Urban Population
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
China GDP by Industry (%)
Industrial Agriculture Services
Improving living
standards increases
focus on automation,
robotics and a new
service-based economy.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
7
Today China aims to become a High-Income economy an increase from its
Upper-Middle Income level currently, based on the World Bank's GNI per Capita
Rating in 2017. The country's per capita gross national income (GNI) has more
than quadrupled since the mid-1990s, but it is still significantly below that of
some Asian economies. China's GNI per capita is US$8,250, compared to
US$27,600 for South Korea and US$37,930 for Japan (Chart 4).
On a relative percentage basis, China’s per capita GNI is only 11.3%2 of that of
the United States with large parts of the country still resembling the early stages
of economic development seen in South Korea and Japan for example.
Chart 4. The long road: China economic journey
Source: FTSE Russell, Thomson Reuters and the World Bank GNI Per Capital Rating as at June, 30 2017.
As its economy becomes more mature, China's growth rate is on a trajectory to
grow by a more sustainable 6% per annum. In 2017, the country's GDP grew by
6.9%3 driven by private consumption and investment growth.
2 Source: World Bank (January 1998−January 2018)
3 http://www.imf.org/External/spring/2018/imfc/statement/eng/chn.pdf
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
GNI Per Capita (USD, World Bank Atlas Method)
United States China Japan South Korea
High Income: Above $12,236
Upper-Middle Income: $3,956-$12,235
Lower-Middle Income: $1,906-$3,955
Low Income: Below $1,005
The opportunity: China’s
GNI is still significantly
below that of some
Asian countries but the
country aims to become
a High-Income
economy.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
8
Chart 5: Chinese growth has slowed from teens to single digit
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at June 30, 2018.
China and the US have been the dominant contributors to global GDP growth
since 2012, offsetting negative growth elsewhere in the world (Chart 6). Should
China's role as a growth driver diminish, what will the impact be for the world
economy? The Chinese government has taken numerous steps to offset slowing
growth, including a middle-class tax cut aimed at stimulating consumer spending
following a fall in retail sales. The central bank has also cut the reserve
requirement ratio for lenders several times during 2018, amid concerns over
market liquidity and the potential impact from a trade dispute with the US.
Chart 6: China has been a main contributor to global growth since 2012
Source: World Bank and FTSE Russell, as at December 31, 2017.
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
China Real GDP Growth (%)
GDP (ex Hong Kong and Macau)
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
World China US Eurozone Brazil Japan
Expansion of GDP 2012-2017 (USD, Bn)
The Chinese
government has taken
numerous steps to
offset slowing growth.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
9
China's actions reverberate worldwide
China's significant contribution to the world economy means that its actions can
have unexpected consequences beyond its borders. One instance was when the
authorities unilaterally took actions to depreciate the yuan in August 2015 to
make it more competitive on the back of a slowing economy. The move impacted
currency, fixed income, equity and commodity markets globally (Chart 7).
Chart 7: The fall in Chinese equity market affected global stock markets
Source: FTSE Russell as at September 1, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns
shown prior to index launch reflect hypothetical historical performance. Please see the end for important legal disclosures.
The Chinese authorities promptly restored confidence by successfully stepping in
to defend the renminbi using their foreign exchange reserves and enacting
several measures to stem the tide of turbulence such as cutting interest rates,
buying equities, halting initial public offerings and limiting capital outflows and
short selling. A similar effort of currency intervention was implemented during
2018 as trade tensions with the United States intensified.
Chart 8: Contraction of foreign exchange reserves has stabilized
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at July 31, 2018.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FTSE China All Cap Inclusion vs FTSE Global All Cap TR (USD, Rebased)
FTSE China All Cap Inclusion Index FTSE Global All Cap Index
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
China FX Reserves (USD, billions)
Foreign Reserves
China's significant
contribution to the world
economy means that its
actions can have
unexpected
consequences beyond
its borders.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
10
For much of the past two years, the yuan has appreciated against the US dollar
but an escalation in trade tensions during 2018 reversed the trend prompting a
sharp devaluation of the Chinese currency (Chart 9).
Chart 9: The yuan has taken the brunt of China-US trade tensions
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at August 30, 2018.
Despite China's attempts to diversify its large foreign reserves and
internationalize the yuan, the US Treasury market (US$15.7 trillion)4 has
remained the only relatively low risk market which is liquid enough to provide
China with investible assets for its large foreign reserves. Most of those reserves
- around US$2 trillion - are held in US dollars, of which about US$1.2 trillion
today is invested in US Treasuries5, some 37% of China's total foreign exchange
reserves (Chart 10).
4 Source: US Treasury website; https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm, as at August 30, 2018
5 http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt, June 2018
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18
Chinese Yuan to USD
Yuan to USD
Some 37% of China’s
total foreign exchange
reserves are held in US
Treasuries.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
11
Chart 10: China is the single largest foreign owner of US government debt
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at June 30, 2018.
Headwinds: China's heavy debt burden
However, China's high debt level has become a notable headwind for the
country's economic growth plans. The sheer size grew out of the large build-up of
debt in the non-financial corporate sector as the Chinese authorities flooded the
market with liquidity to stimulate the economy in the aftermath of the global
financial crisis.
The government combined cuts in short-term interest rates with a reduction in its
banks' reserve requirement ratio to encourage lending to state-owned enterprises
(SOEs). This fostered unprecedented demand, not only for corporate, but also for
household borrowing.
In January 2018, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of the financial
risk posed by the credit growth outpacing GDP growth if left unchecked and
called for the need to deflate the 'credit boom'.6 Household debt, while still
comparatively low, has also been rising (Chart 11).
6 IMF Working Paper, Credit Booms – Is China Different, Sally Chen and Joong Shik Kang
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Chinese Holdings of US Treasuries % of FX Reserves
China has a high debt
level which has become
a notable headwind for
the country's economic
growth plans.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
12
Chart 11: Non-financial corporations debt is responsible for China's debt
problem
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at December 30, 2017.
Between 2006 and 2017, China became one of most indebted countries in the
world after Japan (Chart 12) as its non-financial corporate debt rose from 146%
to 255% of GDP (Chart 11).
Chart 12: China joins Japan as the most indebted countries in the world
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at December 30, 2017.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China Debt to GDP by Sector (%)
Non-Financial Corporations Government Households Total Debt
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total debt to GDP
China United States Japan Eurozone Developing Countries
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
13
To support growth, the authorities increased their lending to state-owned
enterprises and for a while, their output soared and profits grew. Over time
however, it created overcapacity and misallocations of capital, especially in
sectors such as steel, cement, solar, shipbuilding, heavy machinery and mining.
Cheap loans also ignited a housing boom, boosting the construction sector and
sending real estate prices higher (Chart 13).
Chart 13: Easy credits fueled housing bubble
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at July 31, 2018.
The non-performing loans dilemma
For years international investors have viewed Chinese banks' official non-
performing loan (NPL) ratios with concern, amid suspicion that banks were using
loan rollovers or off-balance-sheet accounting - known as shadow banking - to
disguise the extent of their credit losses.
Shadow banking explained
Shadow banking involves the creation of off-balance sheet assets via
wealth management (WMP) and trust products that are sold by banks and
non-bank financial institutions. WMPs and trusts promise higher fixed
returns compared to bank deposits and generally have short maturities.
Proceeds from these products are usually invested in the mainland bond
and equity markets where, due to their short maturities (maturity
mismatching) and leveraged trading, investments tend to have rollover and
principal risks7.
7 Source: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-gets-serious-financial-reform/)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15China House Prices (70 medium & large cities)
Monthly % (LHS) Yearly % (RHS)
Cheap housing loans
ignited a housing
bubble.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
14
The Chinese authorities are implementing measures to address the non-
performing loans (NPLs). In 2008 at the height of the Global Financial Crisis, the
average NPL rate had declined significantly as the Agricultural Bank of China
transferred most of its NPLs to its asset management companies.8 In 2016, the
former banking regulator, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC),
enforced one of the highest coverage-ratio provisions by requiring commercial
banks to adopt a range of 120%-150% to curb lending. This helped drive the ratio
of NPLs as a percentage of total loans from over 10% to around 2%. However,
during 2018 the number of bad loans from real estate has risen as part of
regulator's clamping down on risks in the financial sector9 (Chart 14).
Chart 14: Chinese authorities have been tackling the non-performing loans
Source: FTSE Russell and Thomson Reuters as at June 30, 2018.
Even so, given China's size in the world economy, the IMF in a January 2018
working paper raised its concerns about the country's systematic risks and the
impact it could have on the global economy due to its growing influence.10
Headwind: Will China get old before it gets rich?
Aging population is another potential impediment to China's economic growth.
The government's imposition of strict controls on family size (One Child Policy)
between 1980 to 2016 significantly increased the proportion of its elderly
population (Chart 15). As a consequence, the working age population (those
aged 15-64) started to decline in 2014.11
China's dependency ratio (the
difference between those not in the labor force with those who are working) could
also rise to 44%12
by 2050, causing further challenges.
8 Source: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/chinas-problem-with-non-performing-loans/
9 Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-03/chinese-bank-s-capital-almost-wiped-out-as-loan-rules-tightened
10 IMF Working Paper: Credit Booms-Is China Different? By Sally Chen and Joong Shik Kang, January 2018
11 National Bureau of Statistics of China: http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=C01
12 United Nations
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Value of Chinese Non-Performing Loans (Qly % Change, CNY)
China’s working
population is decreasing
to such an extent that it
could become a
potential impediment to
its economic growth.
The Chinese authorities
are implementing
measures to address
their non-performing
loans problem.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
15
The Chinese authorities have been exploring ways to reduce the problem.
Among the ideas being considered are lifting family-size limits, raising the
retirement age from 60 years for men, 55 for female (white-collar workers) and
50 for female blue-collar employees and improving the health care system.
Chart 15: China's worker to retiree ratio is sharply falling
Source: United Nations, September 2018.
23.5 22.3 18.7
66.9 63.5 55.0
9.7 14.2 26.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2025 2050
China % Population by Age Group
0-19 20-64 65+
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
16
2. Chinese equity markets: a mirror on ‘New China’
As China's economy transformed so did the size and the make-up of its equity
market. Home to three of the world's 10 largest stock exchanges (Shanghai and
Shenzhen in Mainland China and Hong Kong), China's domestic equity market is
the second largest in the world with a market capitalization of about US$9
trillion.13
Chart 16: Market-capitalization of domestic listed companies in 2017
(USD trillion)
Source: World Bank as at December 29, 2017.
New Chinese sectors are displacing old ones
Healthcare, technology, consumer-related sectors, education, entertainment and
financial services have gained market share during the last 10 years at the
expense of heavy industries, oil and gas and basic materials.
China has rapidly automated its manufacturing industry and today dominates the
production of most consumer electronics and a large share of industrial
electronics. Called the "robot revolution" the country owns the highest stock of
industrial robots globally, consuming 30% of the world's total supply of robots in
2016, as China looks to offset rising labor costs and the beginning of a falling
labor force.14
Renewable energy is another important sector in which China has made
significant investments. High levels of air, water and soil pollution had spurred
the Chinese government to heavily invest in environmental initiatives. In 2017,
Chinese investments accounted for 45% of the global total.
13
Worldbank.org as at December 29, 2017 14
IFR.org as at December 2016, https://ifr.org/downloads/press/Executive_Summary_WR_2017_Industrial_Robots.pdf
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
United States China Euro area Japan
Healthcare, technology
and financial and
consumer services have
gained market share
during the last 10 years.
China's domestic equity
market is the second
largest in the world.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
17
Within a broad green economy universe15
of some 3000 companies, China now
represents 12% of the market with both the number of green companies and their
green revenues exposure outpacing many other nations.
Chart 17: China has become a significant participant in the green economy.
Source: FTSE Russell, December 2017
China is uniquely placed in that it has become a global market-leader in the
production of solar panels and is rapidly taking market share in the manufacture
and adoption of electric vehicles. China was one of the fastest growing markets
for plug-in electrical vehicles in Q1 2017.16
Domestically, China is also recognized as the largest installer of renewable
energy. However the cost of renewable projects, which have been heavily
subsidized by the Chinese government, have added to the country's existing high
debt levels and resulted in the oversupply of solar energy.
To limit waste and reduce costs, the authorities have introduced alternative
schemes. For example, recent projects have included setting capacity limits in
regions with high waste rates, launching a nationwide carbon emissions trading
market and issuing via the China National Renewable Energy Centre green
electricity trading certificates.
15
FTSE Russell paper, Investing in the global green economy: busting common myths on FTSErussell.com 16
Source: EV-volumes.com as at Q1 2017, http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/
United States 43%
Japan 13%
China 12%
Germany 4%
Taiwan 4%
France 3%
Other 21%
Green economy by country of domicile
China represents 12%
of the green economy
universe.
China is the global
leader in solar panels
production.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
18
Chart 18: Over the last 10 years, China has diversified across a broader
section of industries
Source: FTSE Russell as at August 31, 2018.
Although financials are gradually losing their market dominance to the faster
growing technology sector, they still represent a significant portion of the equity
market, especially in financial services where new opportunities are opening up.
China's demographics will change the future national reallocations of resources
and priorities as more funds are expected to flow to health care, pensions and
insurance with existing and newly formed financial institutions (as the industry
and services move online) lying at the heart of this structural change. Further
reforms to the banking, securities, futures, asset management and insurance
sectors are opening up these areas to foreign investment, therefore increasing
choice and competition.
The country's pension system will need to further develop to avoid a large
funding gap and meet the needs of an aging population. Occupational pensions
(through the Enterprise Annuity system) and private pensions for individuals are
still in their infancy with most Chinese dependent on the government-run
schemes the Public Pension Fund (PPF) and the National Council for Social
Security Fund (NCSSF). Substantial regulatory progress have already been
made. Asset managers are now able to pitch for external allocations from the
state-run pension funds. The enterprise annuity market is adopting a hybrid
system, where both employers and employees contribute and gradually open it
up to foreign companies and for individual retirement accounts. The State
Council is introducing a pilot tax deferred pension plan and promoting elderly
endowment insurance17
. In doing so, it would provide an opportunity for an
important shift into occupational or private pension savings in the future and pave
the way for China to become one of the world's most dynamic pension markets.
17
KPMG, https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/cn/pdf/en/2017/12/china-pension-outlook.pdf
05
10152025303540
FTSE China Intl All Cap Inclusion (no Quota) Industry Weight (%)
10 Years Ago 5 Years Ago Current
China's demographics
will change the future
national reallocations of
resources and priorities
as more funds are
expected to flow to
health care, pensions
and insurance.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
19
3. China is adapting its corporate governance framework
The corporate governance framework in China is developing and adapting as the
country's economy transforms. Stock exchanges and regulators are driving
changes to the listing requirements as well as the way companies report. A large
part of this change is via state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which are regulated by
the State-Owned Assets Supervision & Administration Commission (SASAC).
This oversees some US$30 trillion in government assets. 18
In recent years, the government has increased the pace of its reform of the
financial industry as it seeks to internationalize its economy and business
practices. In 2015, the authorities unveiled a comprehensive plan to establish a
modern enterprise system and management system under the State Council
blueprint for state-owned enterprise consolidation.19
As a result, SOEs have been
consolidating, bringing a new generation of more-entrepreneurial managers to
run them more efficiently, shutting down loss-making 'zombie' companies and
encouraging private capital.
Until recently, the oversight of securities, banking and insurance had been under
different regulators. This had created a fragmented financial regulatory structure.
To better address financial risks (i.e. the large debt levels of SOEs), China's
State Council created in 2017 a super regulator, the Financial Stability
Development Committee, to coordinate the supervision and management of
financial stability. At the same time, China's central bank, the People's Bank of
China (PBOC), was given a larger role with new powers to exercise
macro-prudential regulation and safeguard against systemic risks.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the State
Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) have remained separate regulators.
Their role is to continue the pace of reform and open the domestic stock markets
to global investors.
As more global investors consider investing in Chinese equities, these efforts
have put a spotlight on how companies are managed and their adoption of
standard accounting principles20
and corporate governance.
Accounting principles are aligned to international standards
Chinese authorities have adopted their version of International Financial
Reporting Standards (IFRS) in 2006 to align them with global standards. The
convergence of Chinese accounting rules into international accounting standards
has been an important step towards China's continuing integration into the world
economy. Depending on their specific circumstances, companies are required to
implement the appropriate accounting standard as follows:
18
Size and Sectoral Distribution of State-Owned Enterprises:
https://www.oecd.org/industry/ind/Item_6_3_OECD_Korin_Kane.pdf 19
https://www.linklaters.com/en/insights/publications/asia-news/asia-corporate/2018/chinas-state-council-kickstarts-market-for-prc-listed-depositary-receipts-for-overseas-listed-shares 20
https://www2.deloitte.com/cn/en/pages/risk/solutions/cg-governance-profile.html)
Stock exchanges and
regulators are driving
changes to the listing
requirements as well as
the way companies
report.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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All publicly listed Chinese companies which trade in China are required
to use Chinese Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises (ASBEs)
for financial reporting within mainland China.
Chinese companies, whose securities trade on the Hong Kong Stock
Exchange, can choose between IFRS Standards, Hong Kong Financial
Reporting Standards (HKFRS) and ASBEs for the purposes of financial
reporting to Hong Kong investors.
Where international and Chinese accounting rules can differ is in the
treatment of 'related party' accounting. The International Accounting
Standard Board requires entities to disclose in their financial statements
information about transactions with related parties. However, state-
owned enterprises have a partial exemption for 'related party' disclosures
due to the large ownership of government enterprises situated off-
balance sheet.
The formulation and implementation of regulatory provisions has greatly
promoted the corporate governance reform process and facilitated the
improvement of the corporate governance level of listed companies in the areas
of independent directorship; information disclosure; interest related party
transaction; general shareholders' meeting; merger and acquisition;
reorganization; and investor protection.
Shareholder rights today are similar to other markets
The Company Law of the People's Republic of China (PRC Company Law)
provides many of the rights and protections for shareholders:
Shareholders have the right to attend and vote at shareholder meetings
(via one share, one vote principle).
Shareholders are entitled to dividend payments and to liquidation of
proceeds in the event of bankruptcy.
Shareholders can appoint a candidate as an independent director for
shareholders who hold 1% or more shares of a listed company.
No fewer than one-third of the board of directors of a listed company
should be independent directors.
Shareholders are to be treated equally in the event of a takeover.
When an investor's shareholding reaches 5% of the issued shares of a
target company the investor is required to disclose their position.
However, foreign investors should be aware of existing limitations:
The PRC Company Law only provides for common shares and to date
does not include preferred stock, deferred stock or golden shares. Hence
in practice, there are no meetings for certain classes of shareholders.
Article 104 of the Company Law provides that each shareholder is
entitled to one vote per share.
The Company Law of
the People's Republic of
China (PRC Company
Law) provides many of
the rights and
protections for
shareholders.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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There are regulatory oversight differences between A Share (mainland
China) and H Share (Hong Kong) listings, in some cases for the same
company, contributing to extra layers of risk and complexity.
Companies employing variable interest entity (VIE) governance
structures are often tilted to favor the founder and ownership risk is
increased due to legal uncertainties.
Many Chinese companies have a degree of direct and/or indirect state
ownership.
The overall foreign ownership is limited to 30% for most companies.
China's Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structure in brief
VIE is a structure in which an investor has a controlling interest which
is not based on a majority of voting rights. To achieve the initial public
offering, Chinese companies can opt for an offshore-listing structure,
which allows foreign investors access to Chinese companies in
'restricted' industries (i.e. Internet).
More than one hundred Chinese companies have adopted the VIE
structure for their offshore listings. Examples include well-known
technology companies such as, Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu.
International investors should inform themselves of the potential risks of
investing in VIE structures, some of the which are as follows:
Offshore holding companies can lose control over domestic
companies within the structure.
Changes to founder, senior management or shareholder of the
domestic company, could affect the life of the structure.
The reputation and equity commitment held by the founder is key to
the company's success.
The structure may not be compliant with PRC law, posing risks to
settlement of disputes.
The incorporation in the Cayman Islands (utilizing the CI 'Exempt
Companies' provisions) means an absence of legal requirements to
hold AGMs and an excessively high request threshold for calling an
EGM.
Source: China Law Insight21
21
https://www.chinalawinsight.com/2012/02/articles/corporate/foreign-investment/variable-interest-entity-structure-in-china/
Many Chinese
companies have a
degree of direct and/or
indirect state ownership.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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4. The opportunity set: access to China's domestic market
China has historically been a difficult market to access for foreign investors. Up
until 2002, international institutional investors aiming to enter China had to be in
a joint venture with a local Chinese equivalent. Since then, regulators have
opened the door to overseas investors to access the China A Share market and
the China Interbank Bond Market.
Although investors can gain exposure to China through overseas listings, the
domestic A Share market accounts for the majority of the China equity
opportunity set. The table below provides an overview of the different types of
shares available to Chinese and foreign equity investors.
Table 1: Guide to Chinese Share Classes and where there are traded
Shares Class
Country of Incorporation
Country of Listing Country of Listing
Currency of Listing
Open to Chinese Investors
Open to Foreign investors
A Share China China Chinese companies incorporated on the Mainland traded on the domestic Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.
RMB Yes Yes
via QFII, RQFII and Stock Connect schemes.
B Share China China Chinese companies incorporated on the Mainland and traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.
USD (Shanghai), HKD (Shenzhen)
Yes with foreign currency dealing accounts.
Yes
H Share China Hong Kong Chinese companies incorporated on the Mainland and traded in Hong Kong (HKEX). The majority of companies have an associated A- share listing.
HKD Yes if QDII approved or under Stock Connect Schemes.
Yes
Red Chip Outside China Hong Kong State-owned Chinese companies incorporated outside the Mainland and traded on HKEX.
HKD Yes if QDII approved or under Stock Connect Schemes.
Yes
P Chip Outside China Hong Kong Private Chinese companies incorporated outside the mainland (Cayman Islands, Bermuda) and traded in HK (HKEX).
HKD Yes if QDII approved or under Stock Connect Schemes.
Yes
S Chip Outside China Singapore Chinese companies incorporated outside the mainland (Cayman Islands, Bermuda) and traded in Singapore (SGX).
SGD/USD Yes if QDII approved.
Yes
Regulators have
opened the door to
overseas investors to
access the China A
Share market and the
China Interbank Bond
Market.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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Shares Class
Country of Incorporation
Country of Listing Country of Listing
Currency of Listing
Open to Chinese Investors
Open to Foreign investors
N Share Outside China United States (New York-listing)
Chinese companies incorporated outside the mainland (Cayman Islands, Bermuda) and traded in the USA on NYSE or NASDAQ.
USD Yes if QDII approved.
Yes
L Share Outside China United Kingdom
Chinese companies incorporated outside the mainland (Cayman Islands, Bermuda) and traded on the London Stock Exchange (LSE).
GBP Yes if QDII approved.
Yes
Chinese depositary receipt (CDR)
A new route for Chinese companies to list back on the mainland China equity
market is via Chinese depository receipts (CDRs). The authorities have offered
CDRs to some of its biggest and fastest growing companies, many of which had
listed overseas to avoid the legal and technical barriers to a mainland listing as
well as to gain access to international investors and bond markets.
China Depositary Receipt
China’s depository receipts are a certificate issued by a custodian bank
that represents a pool of foreign equity that is traded on Chinese
exchanges. Chinese regulators have modelled CDRs after US-listed
American depositary receipts so that overseas stocks could be traded on
China's mainland market. The goal of issuing CDRs is to entice capital
back to the Chinese market to drive the economy as China's technology
giants have traditionally opted to list outside their home market.
The issuance of CDRs allows both Chinese institutional and private
investors to own shares in Chinese foreign-listed companies.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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Main entry routes to China A Shares for foreign investors
There are three main points of access which can be used by foreign investors:
The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII), the Renminbi Qualified
Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) and the Connect schemes. Each provides a
mechanism for foreign investors to invest in one of the largest global markets.
Using the current access points, to date international institutional investors
represent only 2.3%22
of the China A Share market.
Chart 19: Timeline of access schemes for international investors
Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and other arrangements
The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor scheme has historically been the
primary channel to access China, although the Connect schemes have now
become a popular route for international investors.
Introduced in December 2002, QFII allows institutional investors who meet
certain requirements to directly invest on both the Shanghai and Shenzhen
exchanges. Foreign investments in China are restricted due to foreign exchange
control; the quota, products, accounts and fund conversions are strictly
monitored and regulated.
22
FTSE Russell paper, data as at March 29, 2018 – Embracing China’s economic shift through the Total China Concept
2002 2011 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2002
Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) Scheme
2011
Renminbi Qualified foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) Scheme
2013
Qualified Domestic Limited Partnership
2014
Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect
Scheme
2015
Mutual Recognition of Funds
Scheme
2016
Shenzhen Stock Connect & China Interbank Bond Market Access Scheme
2017
Bond Connect Scheme
Connect schemes are
the newest and most
flexible entry points to
China's domestic equity
(Stock Connect) and
bond (Bond Connect)
markets for foreign
investors.
Foreign investors have
three main points of
accessing China A
Shares: Stock Connect,
QFII and RQFII.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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QFII requirements & other Arrangements
International fund management institutions, insurance companies,
securities companies and other asset management institutions must be
approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and
granted investment quotas by the State Administration of Foreign
exchange (SAFE).
For Chinese investors, a reciprocal scheme to QFII, the Qualified
Domestic Institutional Investor scheme (QDII), was introduced in 2006 that
allows Chinese financial institutions to invest overseas in foreign fixed
income and equities. The eligible foreign markets include those that have
signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the CSRC.
Wholly foreign-owned enterprises (WFOE) are also available for overseas
companies to access the mainland market. They are 100% foreign-owned
firms that can manufacture and market their own products for sale to
mainland investors. This structure allows overseas asset management
companies to operate under their own name and benefit from the same
rules as local private funds.23
Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII)
Introduced in 2011, RQFII is a local currency version of QFII which permits
investment in the same range of investment products and is subject to many of
the same restrictions. Initially the RQFII program was limited to only Chinese
financial institutions with subsidiaries in Hong Kong but has been expanded to
other Hong Kong financial institutions and institutions in other countries including
Australia, Canada, United States, Hungary, France, Germany, Switzerland,
Luxembourg, Ireland, United Kingdom, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan,
Malaysia, Thailand, UAE and Chile.24
Like QFII, approvals from both CSRC and
SAFE are also required.
23
Source: http://www.wfoe.org/ 24
CSRC
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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Prior to the Stock Connect scheme, if investors did not have QFII/RQFII quota,
their only alternative access point to the mainland market was via overseas
Chinese listings. However, only 24% of China A Share companies (by market
cap) can be accessed by other China share classes. Although large cap China A
Shares have the highest representation, they make up only 33.7% (Chart 21).
Chart 21: Overseas China listings only provide a small exposure to the
mainland equity market
Source: FTSE Russell as at August 31, 2018.
Connect Schemes
Connect schemes are the newest and most flexible entry points to China's
domestic equity (Stock Connect) and bond (Bond Connect) markets for foreign
investors. Connect provides a mutual market-access program that allows
international and mainland Chinese investors to trade securities in each other's
markets using eligible local trading and clearing facilities. Connect helps pave the
way for Chinese securities to be included in global benchmarks.
Stock Connect
Stock Connect has been growing rapidly. First launched in 2014 (Shanghai-Hong
Kong Stock Connect), Stock Connect is a collaboration between the Hong Kong,
Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and allows Hong Kong and foreign
investors to access eligible listed securities using broker accounts in Hong Kong.
The link was extended in 2016 to the Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock
exchanges (Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect). Each link has a daily quota of
RMB 52 billion (USD 8bn) − increased from RMB 13 billion (USD 2bn) since May
1, 2018.
33.7
5.7 2.0
24.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
FTSE China A LargeCap Index
FTSE China A MidCap Index
FTSE China A SmallCap Index
FTSE China A AllCap Index
% of China A Shares (by market cap) Accessed by Other China Share Classes
Stock Connect has
been growing rapidly.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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Under Shanghai Connect, Hong Kong investors can trade constituent stocks of
the SSE180, SSE 380 indexes and all dual-listed A Shares that have an
equivalent H Share on the Hong Kong stock exchange.25
For Shenzhen Connect, Hong Kong and overseas institutional investors can
trade the Shenzhen Component index - the main index whose constituent stocks
are available for investment through the scheme - and the Shenzhen Mid- and
Small-Cap Innovation index, with a minimum market cap of RMB 6 billion. This
represents some 900-listed securities. Similar to the Shanghai Connect, all dual-
listed A Shares that have an equivalent H Share on the Hong Kong stock
exchange are also eligible.
Elsewhere, separate preparations are being made to create a new link between
Shanghai and the London Stock exchanges (Shanghai-London Stock Connect).
Today, the Stock Connect program covers some 2000 eligible Chinese
equities.26
Restrictions of access schemes
While the development of access routes is constantly evolving, there are still
some restrictions which do not provide the same mechanisms and coverage that
international investors are accustomed to when accessing capital in other
developing markets.
The recent removal of restrictions on the outflow of capital is a positive
development. However, QFII and RQFII accounts are not available to all
investors. For example an investor has to be of a certain size, assets
under management, experience and have its principal place of business
in certain jurisdictions to receive a license and quota.
Stock Connect, QFII and RQFII access routes operate on a pre-funded
basis, with securities settling on T+0 and cash settling on T+1. For Stock
Connect, Delivery versus Payment (DvP) is not available or available at
an additional cost via a local broker/custodian.
There are concerns over the availability of CNH/CNY around index
balances. The PBOC recently permitted 20 foreign exchange banks in
Hong Kong which have a China Foreign Exchange Trade System
(CFETS) license to offer onshore RMB (CNY) for Stock Connect
settlement which should alleviate this concern.
Security suspensions: a barrier to entry
Despite continued positive market developments, the high incidence of security
suspensions, which far exceeds those in other markets, affect the ability of index
trackers to replicate benchmark changes. At the height of the stock market
decline on July 9, 2015, nearly half of China's 1424-plus listed companies, as
measured by the FTSE China A All Cap Index, halted trading.
25
HKEX at https://www.hkex.com.hk/Mutual-Market/Stock-Connect/Eligible-Stocks/View-All-Eligible-Securities?sc_lang=en 26
HKEX at http://www.hkex.com.hk/Mutual-Market/Stock-Connect?sc_lang=en
There has been a high
incidence of security
suspensions, but more
recently levels have
decreased to about 4%.
Stock Connect covers
some 2000 eligible
Chinese equities.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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On average between the beginning of 2015 to August 201827
approximately 8%
of China A Share securities in the FTSE China A All Cap Index have been
suspended on a daily basis. More recently, levels have decreased to about 4%.
Chart 20: The rising number of suspensions has affected the Chinese
market
Source: FTSE Russell, Wind, data as at August 31, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns shown prior to index launch reflect hypothetical, historical performance. Please see the end for important disclosures.
For a detailed summary of the different equity access schemes consult
Table 1 in the Appendix (page 48).
27
FTSE Russell, data from January 5, 2015 to August 31, 2018.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Pric
e R
etru
n In
dex (C
NY
) Nu
mb
er
of
Su
sp
en
sio
ns
Number of Suspensions vs FTSE China A All Cap (CNY)
Number of Suspensions (LHS) FTSE China A All Cap Index (RHS)
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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5. Rising star – China's fixed-income market
China's bond market has come a long way since the first bond was issued in
1980. It ranks today as the third largest bond market in the world behind the
United States and Japan.
Chart 22: Chinese bond market has grown significantly in the last 10 years
Source: WIND, August 31, 2018.
China's onshore bond market is dominated by sovereign and regional
government bonds with a growing credit sector. Investors view policy bank bonds
(non-commercial, 100 percent state-owned banks that lend in support of
government priorities) having similar risk as sovereign bonds. Municipal bonds
have been growing rapidly since 2015.
Chart 23: Segmentation of the Chinese onshore bond market (% weight)
Source: WIND, August 31, 2018.
Size RMB Trillion, 81.21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Siz
e i
n R
MB
Tri
llio
n
Size of Chinese Bond Market Since 2009
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Commercial papers
Asset-backed securities (ABS)
Negotiable certificate of deposit (NCD)
Policy bank bonds
China government bonds
Regional government bonds (Municipal bonds)
Corporate bonds
China’s bond market
ranks third largest in the
world.
China’s domestic bond
market is dominated by
sovereign and regional
government bonds.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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The majority of outstanding issues, many of which have implied government
support, are AA-rated by local Chinese rating agencies (Chart 24).
Although international foreign ratings agencies are now allowed to operate in
China to rate domestic Chinese issuers, at the time of writing none had been
granted a license. Prior to the change in the rules, global rating agencies could
only hold minority stakes in joint-venture operations and not issue ratings on local
bonds.
Chart 24: Most Chinese bonds, which defaulted, were rated AA at issuance
Source: Wind, August 31, 2018.
Chinese onshore bonds are mostly traded through the interbank bond market
(Chart 25), which includes a wide range of financial institutions. In addition to
their on-balance sheet holdings, commercial banks, which dominate the market
in terms of ownership, control many bonds through their off-balance sheet wealth
management products (see Shadow Banking box on page 13) that they sell to
customers as a higher yielding alternative to traditional saving deposits.28
28
Financial Times, July 3, 2017 – China’s interbank bond market in five charts
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
AA
A
AA
+
AA
AA
- A A-
A-1
BB
B
No
n-R
ate
d
Rating at Issuance (Outstanding Amount %)
Chinese onshore bonds
are mostly traded
through the interbank
bond market.
International foreign
ratings agencies are
now allowed to operate
in China to rate
domestic Chinese
issuers, but none has
been granted a license.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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Chart 25: The majority of local bonds trade on the China Interbank Bond
Market
Source: CCDC, SCH, CSDC and HSBC Securities Services.
As the authorities continue to restrict off-balance sheet lending and push up
funding costs, corporate bond defaults have risen six-fold since the end of 2015.
2016 saw the largest number of defaults when 78 bonds defaulted, which
represented RMB 39.3 billion in principal amount. In the first eight months in
2018, the issue sizes were significantly larger with 60 bond defaults representing
RMB 57.38 billion in principal amount (Chart 26).
Chart 26: The number of corporate bond defaults peaked in 2016, but is
rising again
Source: Wind, August 31, 2018.
85.6
13.2
1.0 0.2
Share of Bond Markets (%)
Interbank
Exchange
OTC
Others
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 tillAugust 31
To
tal d
efa
ults
(RM
B b
illion
)
Nu
mb
er
of
Defa
ult
s
Number of defaults (LHS) Total Amount in default (RHS)
The number of
corporate bond defaults
peaked in 2016, but is
rising again.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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The increased incidence of corporate defaults reflects the government's efforts to
contain leverage and reduce complexity in the financial system, particularly
through a clampdown on shadow-financing activities. Corporates over stretched
their balance sheets during the previous credit boom to fund aggressive business
expansion, and those which had uncompetitive or structurally ailing business
models have struggled to refinance their maturing debt.
Nearly 20% of bond defaults are by state-owned enterprises as regulators moved
away from the old model of implicit guarantees for most debt securities to allow
defaults to take place.
Chart 27: Corporate issuers are making up the majority of defaulting bonds
Source: Wind as at August 31, 2014-2018.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Chinese andforeign joint
venture
Foreignenterprise
local state-owned
enterprise
Privateenterprise
State-ownedenterprise
Whollyforeign-owned
enterprise
Others
Percentage of Default Bonds
Nearly 20% of bond
defaults are by state-
owned enterprises.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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Much of the outstanding debt issuance has been tilted towards short maturities,
with the majority of issues due to mature in less than four years (Chart 28).
Chart 28: China's average bond life is less than five years
Source: FTSE Russell and Wind, August 31, 2018; WAL= Weighted Average Life based on FTSE Chinese (Onshore CNY) Broad Bond Index, Regional Government and FTSE Chinese (Onshore CNY) Broad Bond Index, Corporate.
New issuance has fallen sharply as the central bank has squeezed liquidity and
China's banking regulator introduced new regulations to discourage leveraged
investment in the bond market.
Chart 29: Bond issuance has declined sharply since 2016
Source: FTSE Russell and Wind, August 31, 2018.
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18
We
igh
ted
Ave
rage
Lif
e (
Ye
ars)
Municipal WAL Corporate WAL
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
New Issuance Amount (RMB Billion)
Municipal bonds (local government) Corporate bonds
August 31, 2018
New issuance has fallen
sharply as China's
banking regulator
introduced new
regulations to
discourage leveraged
investment in the bond
market.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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6. Foreign investor access to the Chinese onshore bond market
Foreign investor access to the Chinese domestic debt market has been less
restrictive than equities. The market has grown to RMB 81 trillion (USD12 trillion).
In 2002, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the PBOC initiated the
QFII scheme to allow foreign investors to enter China's capital markets directly.
Chart 30: Evolution of the opening up of the Chinese bond market
Source: FTSE Russell
Like the equity access, international investors can access the Chinese
government bond market via a number of routes: QFII, RQFII, CIBM* Direct and
Bond Connect schemes (refer to Table 2 on page 35).
International investors are also given direct access to primary issuances in the
CIBM. Not all derivatives are yet available to foreign investors, although more
derivatives are available on CIBM. For Bond Connect, only cash bonds are
available currently.
Bond Connect
Launched in July 2017, Bond Connect29
provides the Northbound access to the
China Interbank Bond Market. This mutual market-access scheme allows
investors from mainland China and overseas to trade in each other's bond
29
Bond Connect admission of eligible foreign investors http://www.chinabondconnect.com/documents/AccessRules-20170630.pdf
*CIBM= Chinese Interbank Bond Market
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Aug 2010 PBOC launched a pilot scheme allowing (i) foreign banks or monetary authorities, (ii) RMB settlement banks in HK and Macau and (iii) cross-border RMB settlement participating banks in HK and Macau to trade and settle bonds in the CIBM.
2013 RQFIIs across jurisdictions were also allowed to invest in the CIBM, subject to PBOC approval.
Apr 2015 First onshore SOE defaults.
July 2015 PBOC announced that central banks, monetary authorities, international financial organizations could invest in the CIBM without approval requirements and quota limits.
Feb 2017 Hedging tools including FX forwards, FX swaps and currency swaps approved by policy makers.
July 2017 Bond Connect is operational, allowing international investors to access the onshore bond market via HK accounts.
Dec 2011 HK-based subsidiaries of
Chinese fund management and securities companies, which had been granted RQFII status during the 1
st phase of the scheme
were allowed to apply for approval and quota to invest in the CIBM via a bond settlement agent.
Feb 2016 Quota-free access to CIBM market.
May 2016 Restrictions on repatriation of currency and holdings periods are eliminated.
Oct 2016 IMF includes CNY in the Special Drawing Right basket, the 1
st addition for 15 years and
making it the 3rd
largest in the basket of currencies held as reserves for IMF members.
Feb 2018 Phased, inclusion of
Onshore Treasury bonds into the FTSE EMGBI, AGBI and APGBI.
Jun 2018 SAFE removed the restrictions on the repatriation for QFII/RQFII investors; also allows currency forward to be used for hedging purpose.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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markets through connection between the related mainland and Hong Kong
Financial Infrastructure Institutions (the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing
Limited (HKEX) and the Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU).
Prior to Bond Connect, foreign investors could access China’s onshore bond
market through the CIBM direct channel without quota through a local bond
settlement agent. Today, foreign investors can buy Chinese debt directly through
Bond Connect.
Table 2: Comparison of the various bond access schemes available to
foreign institutional investors
Shares Class QFII RQFII.
RMB Participating Bank CIBM Bond Connect
Scheme Launch Year
2002 2011 Opened to foreign investors in March 2016 (but available to central banks, SWF and international organizations since July 2015)
2017
Eligible Investments
Cash bonds Cash bonds Cash bonds; RMB repo
Cash bonds, RMB IRS and bond forwards for hedging
Cash bonds
Repatriation No monthly repatriation limit since June 2018
No monthly repatriation limit since June 2018
RMB only Roughly maintain foreign currency and RMB ratio
No repatriation restrictions
Quota Investment quota for each QFII
Investment quota for each RQFII
Investment quota for each RMB participating bank
No investment limit; no intended amount
No investment limit
Source: FTSE Russell and Linklaters 2017.
However, there remains some restrictions for foreign investors
Monetary policy communication appears to be less clear compared with
that of major central banks, in major bond markets (UK, US, Japan and
Eurozone).
Perception of exchange rate risk could remain high if China's 'managed
floating' regime continues to see frequent parameter changes that are
not clearly articulated.
RMB is the highest ranked emerging market currency by turnover, but its
share of global turnover remains relatively modest (~4%).
Sovereign credit risk is difficult to assess given the potential large
liabilities not reflected by the level of government debt and fiscal deficit.
Bond Connect provides
the Northbound access
to the China Interbank
Bond Market.
There remains some
restrictions for foreign
investors to access
China’s onshore bonds.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
36
The level of foreign ownership in the overall domestic market is markedly
low, at around 2%, despite a 41% YOY growth in foreign inflows in
2017.30
The index impact of its inclusion will be significant, owing to the
substantial size of the Chinese debt market.
The inclusion of Onshore Treasuries would represent 5.8% of the FTSE
World Government Bond Index.
While it is generally improving, liquidity remains a concern particularly for
off-the-run bonds, Policy Bank bonds are more liquid than treasuries.
CDs are the most actively traded instrument on Bond Connect.
There is no coverage of onshore CNY credit bonds by international rating
agencies which are in the process of getting a license.
However, since August 30, 2018, foreign bond investors have been exempted
from corporate income tax and VAT for a tentative period of three years for non-
government bonds (regional and government bonds are exempted).
Renminbi: Gaining importance globally?
China's opening of its financial and capital markets is helping the renminbi
become a major global currency which, based on the Bank of International
Settlements data,31
ranks as the 8th most traded currency worldwide (Table 2).
The introduction of a hybrid net settlement clearing system, the Cross-Border
Interbank Payment System (CIPS) for on and offshore businesses trading in
yuan, has created an express channel for the internationalization of the currency.
CIPS is modelled on USD CHIPS and uses SWIFT messaging as well as SWIFT
standards.32
The use of CIPS has greatly improved the efficiency of cross-border clearing and
marked major progress in establishing a modern payment system that complies
with international standards. As a result, the Chinese yuan has become
increasingly used as a settlement currency within Asia Pacific since the
establishment of Hong Kong and Shanghai as offshore RMB clearing centers.
30
Wind, September 2018 31
BIS, April 2016, https://www.bis.org/statistics/d11_1.pdf 32
Source: TMI, January 2016 https://www.treasury-management.com/article/1/355/2929/cips-chinas-hybrid-net-settlement-clearing-system.html
Since August 30, 2018,
foreign bond investors
are exempted from
corporate income tax.
China's opening of its
financial and capital
markets is helping the
renminbi become a
major global currency
which ranks as the 8th
most traded currency
worldwide.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)
CIPS provides controlled cross-border access to the onshore CNY
clearing system (China National Automated Payment System version 2)
for use in offshore and cross-border CNY payments, so that offshore CNY
settlement can access onshore liquidity directly. However, CIPS does not
facilitate funds transfer, rather it sends payment orders which must be
settled by correspondent accounts that the institutions have with each
other.
Table 2: The yuan ranks in the top ten of the most traded currencies
Year 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
FX Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank Share Rank
USD 89.9 1 88 1 85.6 1 84.9 1 87 1 87.6 1
EUR 37.9 2 37.4 2 37 2 39 2 33.4 2 31.4 2
JPY 23.5 3 20.8 3 17.2 3 19 3 23 3 21.6 3
GBP 13 4 16.5 4 14.9 4 12.9 4 11.8 4 12.8 4
AUD 4.3 7 6 6 6.6 6 7.6 5 8.6 5 6.9 5
CAD 4.5 6 4.2 7 4.3 7 5.3 7 4.6 7 5.1 6
CHF 6 5 6 5 6.8 5 6.3 6 5.2 6 4.8 7
CNY 0.0 35 0.1 29 0.5 20 0.9 17 2.2 9 4.0 8
SEK 2.5 8 2.2 8 2.7 9 2.2 9 1.8 11 2.2 9
NZD 0.6 16 1.1 13 1.9 11 1.6 10 2 10 2.1 10
Source: BIS, April 2016.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
38
7. China is opening its equity market to international investors
China's deepening integration into global financial markets provide opportunities
to international investors as they look to diversify their exposure to a market
where the majority of investors have historically had no access. However there
remain outstanding questions on the appropriate allocation and trading schemes
to accomplish this. For example, when do investors need to review their current
China portfolios in the light of the opening of the mainland Chinese equity
market? Do investors have a diversified representation of the Chinese economy?
Do their existing allocations support changes in accessibility of the China share
classes and its future economic shift?
As China continues to open its financial markets to international investors, it will
become increasingly important for investors to understand the profile of each to
make informed decisions around their China equity allocations. For example,
China's listed equity markets will come to dwarf the rest of the emerging markets
(Chart 31). In the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion (No Quota)
Index, exposure to China A Shares makes up nearly half of the total China
weight, while in contrast China A Shares are not currently included in the FTSE
China Index.
Chart 31: China's A Shares represent a large weight within emerging
market indexes.
Source: FTSE Russell, data as at August 31, 2018. Hypothetical index created for research and illustrative purposes only. Please see the end for important legal disclosures.
Investors will also need to understand that over half of the Chinese stock
universe is represented by China A Shares to which they have had limited
access historically.
32.2 30.9 25.2 22.8
4.0 21.7 29.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
China(excluding China A
Shares)
China(including China A
Shares at theiraggregate quota)
China(including China A
Shares at theirforeign ownershipadjusted weight)
China(including China AShares at their free
float adjusted weight)
Weig
ht
in in
dex (
%)
China's expansion in various FTSE Emerging markets All Cap Indexes
B Share, H Share, N Share, Red Chip, P Chip, S Chip
China A Share
Hypothetical index with neither FOL or
R/QFII quota restrictions for A
Shares
FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap
China A Inclusion
(No Quota) Index
China's listed markets
will come to dwarf the
rest of the emerging
markets.
FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap
China A Inclusion Index FTSE Emerging All
Cap Index
It will become
increasingly important
for foreign investors to
understand the onshore
market profile to make
informed decisions
around their China
equity allocations.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
39
Chart 32: Investor access to overseas listings (excludes China A Shares)
Source: FTSE Russell, data as at August 31, 2018, based on FTSE China International All Cap Index.
The FTSE China A All Cap Index comprises 1,919 China A Share constituents,
representing 56% of the total Chinese equity market universe.
Chart 33: China A Shares are significantly larger than the other China share
class listings
Source: FTSE Russell, data as at August 31, 2018, based on FTSE China International All Cap Index; the weight is calculated assuming the A Shares are included at their free float adjusted market capitalization (i.e. without FOL).
A growing but small number of investors have already 'dipped their toes' into the
domestic Chinese market via strategic allocation in QFII/RQFII that has grown
over time as they become more accustomed to the mainland market.
Others have used tactical allocations via futures and funds tracking key index
benchmarks depending on whether they want exposure to China A Shares or
related equities that are listed in Hong Kong and overseas markets.
1.0
33.0
23.9
29.8
12.1 0.2
Weight in China Universe (%)
B Shares
H Shares
N Shares
P Chips
Red Chips
S Chips
53
143
36
174
63 7
Number of Constituents in China Universe
B Shares
H Shares
N Shares
P Chips
Red Chips
S Chips
0.4
14.5
10.5
13.1
5.3
0.1
56.0
Weight in China Universe (%)
B Shares
H Shares
N Shares
P Chips
Red Chips
S Chips
A Shares
53 143 36
174
63
7
1,919
Number of Constituents in China Universe
B Shares
H Shares
N Shares
P Chips
Red Chips
S Chips
A Shares
China A Shares are
significantly larger than
the other China share
class listings.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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8. FTSE Russell's approach to managing China's transition into global benchmarks
FTSE Russell continues to support investment choices through years of
experience in the mainland China market. As the first international provider of
mainland Chinese benchmarks and an index product range that demonstrates
the breadth and depth of China's equity and bond markets, FTSE Russell leads
the way in providing solutions to its clients' needs.
FTSE Russell acknowledges the efforts of the Chinese authorities to increase the
accessibility of the China A Share market for international investors. Since March
2018, FTSE Russell has evaluated the China A market against the three access
routes available to foreign investors:
Stock Connect
Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII)
Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII).
As a result of recent enhancements to the Northbound Stock Connect program,
including but not limited to a four-fold increase in the Daily Quota limit and the
use of the Special Segregated Accounts (SPSA), which allows the facilitation of
effective DvP via the Northbound Stock Connect program, China A Shares
available via the Northbound Stock Connect route will be assigned as
Secondary Emerging.
The following provides a high level summary of the first phase of FTSE Russell’s
China A share implementation plan:
Stock Selection: constituents of the FTSE China A Stock Connect All
Cap Index
Size Segments: large, mid and small securities
Portion of China A Shares being added: 25% of each security's
investability weight
Implementation Commencing: June 2019 (nine months’ notification)
Implementation Schedule: Three tranches - June 2019, September
2019 and March 2020 (phase 1)
Size Tranche: 20% in June 2019, 40% in September 2019* and 40% in
March 2020*
Regional Review: China to be reviewed separately from Asia Pacific ex
Japan
* Please note that the implementation of Tranche 2 in September 2019 and Tranche 3 in March 2020 will be contingent upon the successful implementation of Tranche 1 in June 2019.
China A Shares
available via the
Northbound Stock
Connect route will be
assigned as Secondary
Emerging.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
41
The future: the inclusion of China A Shares in FTSE Russell’s global equity indexes
How the addition of China’s A Shares in the FTSE Russell’s indexes will look like
in the future will depend on the continued development of this market. The end
goal is for all China A Shares to be included, not just those that are available via
the Northbound Stock Connect program. Constituents will initially be weighted by
foreign ownership limits (and not quota), and finally, where foreign ownership
restrictions have been relaxed, companies will be weighted by their free floats.
Prior to the conclusion of phase 1 in March 2020, FTSE Russell will consider the
inclusion of future tranches and any market developments that have taken place
in the meantime. Such a future proposal would consider:
Whether the size of the next phase should be based on a) any increase
to the quota sizes since the commencement of phase 1, or b) whether
phase 1 should be repeated (i.e., taking the total inclusion factor to 50%);
Whether stocks outside of Stock Connect should be included (this will
depend on enhancements to the QFII and RQFII access routes);
The availability of DvP via the QFII and RQFII access routes;
The timing of future tranches.
Chart 34. The growth of China A Shares in the FTSE Emerging Index
The sizes of tranches
Source: FTSE Russell – data as at 31 August 2018. This graph contains forward-
looking representations based upon a number of
assumptions concerning future conditions that ultimately may prove to be inaccurate.
33.79 33.01 32.02 31.09 26.46 24.26
1.17 3.40 5.51 19.57 26.24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Weig
ht
in I
nd
ex (
%) 50.51
46.03
36.59
China ex A Shares (includes B, H, N Shares & P, Red,S Chips)
China A Shares (Stock Connect)
China A Shares
FOL adjusted
China A Shares
free float adjusted
Jun
2019
Aug 2018
35.42 34.17 0
Sep 2019
Mar 2020
the Future
FTSE Russell will
consider the inclusion of
future tranches following
the conclusion of the
phase 1 inclusion.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
42
Chart 35. The expected growth of China A Shares in the FTSE All-World
Index
Source: FTSE Russell – data as at 31 August 2018. These charts contain forward-looking representations based upon a number of assumptions concerning future conditions that ultimately may prove to be inaccurate. Please see the end for important legal disclosures.
Full details of the implementation are available on the FTSE Russell website at:
https://www.ftse.com/products/indices/country-classification
FTSE Russell has a rigorous inclusion methodology
While an important first step, it takes more than just opening up a market to
attract foreign capital. Investors must be assured that important criteria for
market efficiency and quality (such as asset security, ease of access and trading)
are met. Ensuring that those investor conditions are achieved lies at the
foundation of the FTSE Russell country classification evaluation process.
China's classification process is a result of constructive engagement with
Chinese regulators, stock market officials and international investors/custodians.
To attain the Secondary Emerging classification, a market must satisfy nine of
the 21 key market quality and regulatory criteria, referred to as the FTSE Quality
of Markets Matrix.
Consistent with the Principles for Financial Benchmarks published in 2013 by
International Organization of Securities Commissions, which promotes regulatory
standards for the world's securities and futures markets, the operation of the
country classification process is overseen by FTSE Russell's strong internal
governance structure, supported by independent advisory committees consisting
of senior market practitioners with extensive global market knowledge and
experience.
3.22 3.22 3.21 3.21 3.15 3.12
0.11 0.34 0.57
2.33 3.37
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Weig
ht
in I
nd
ex (
%)
China ex A Shares (includes B, H, N Shares & P, Red, S Chips)
China A Shares (Stock Connect)
China A Shares
FOL adjusted
China A Shares
free float adjusted
Aug
2018
Jun 2019
Sep 2019
Mar 2020
the Future
6.48
5.48
3.77 3.56 3.34
0
China's classification
process is a result of
constructive
engagement with
Chinese regulators,
stock market officials
and international
investors/custodians.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
43
FTSE Russell classifies countries according to objective criteria and engages
with stock exchanges, regulators and central banks in those countries where
markets are being considered for potential reclassification. The transparency of
the process provides portfolio managers and asset allocators with a clear view of
expected future index evolution.
To give investors time to plan for potential classification changes, FTSE Russell
operates a Watch List of those countries with scores on the Quality of Markets
matrix that have been judged to have met (or are becoming close to meeting) the
technical criteria required for reclassification.
China's inclusion into the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS)
FTSE Global China A Inclusion Indexes are available for market participants,
with a choice of how to include China A-shares in global benchmarks. The series
also includes FTSE China A Indexes and China A Stock Connect Indexes.
Please refer to the following Link for further information on FTSE Russell
Country Classification: .https://www.ftse.com/products/downloads/FTSE-
Country-Classification-Update_latest.pdf
The transparency of the
process provides
portfolio managers and
asset allocators with a
clear view of expected
future index evolution.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
44
Table 3: China A Shares latest inclusion assessment in global equity
benchmarks
FTSE Quality of Markets
Secondary Emerging
China A Share via Stock Connect *
China A Share via QFII**
China A Share via RQFII**
Formal stock market regulatory authorities actively monitor market
Yes Pass Pass Pass
No objection to or significant restrictions or penalties applied to the investment of capital or the repatriation of capital and income
Yes Pass Restricted Restricted
Settlement – rare incidence of failed trades
Yes Pass Pass Pass
Custody – sufficient competition to ensure high quality custodian services
Yes Pass Pass Pass
Clearing and settlement – T+2 / T+3
Yes T+0 / T+1*** T+0 T+0
Brokerage – sufficient competition to ensure high quality broker services
Yes Pass Restricted Restricted
Liquidity – sufficient broad market liquidity to support sizeable global investment
Yes Pass Pass Pass
Transaction costs – implicit and explicit costs to be reasonable and competitive
Yes
Pass Pass Pass
Transparency – market depth information / visibility and timely trade reporting process
Yes
Pass Pass Pass
Source: FTSE Russell as at September 26, 2018.
* China A Share via Northbound Stock Connect to be reclassified as Secondary Emerging,
commencing June 2019
** Other China A Share access routes - currently Unclassified
*** Indicates a rating change from March 2018 decision
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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The FTSE Russell Country Classification Process
FTSE Russell classifies stock markets as either Developed, Advanced
Emerging, Secondary Emerging or Frontier following a rigorous, systematic
and research-based process.
Markets are assessed against a set of 21 criteria referred to as the FTSE
Quality of Markets Matrix, which is used to evaluate the suitability of inclusion
based on each market’s scale, regulatory environment, liquidity, stability and
ease of non-domestic investor access.
The FTSE Russell process was developed in conjunction with and is
supported by an independent Country Classification Advisory Committee,
which consists of senior market practitioners with a wide range of technical
expertise in trading, portfolio management and custody services. With support
from its independent advisors, FTSE Russell also actively engages with local
authorities on technical issues or concerns that may require to meet
international standards.
FTSE Russell maintains a “Watch List” for markets potentially approaching
reclassification and, as a policy of engagement, to help them understand the
steps needed to meet international standards.
On this basis, the Country Classification Advisory Committee makes
recommendations to FTSE Russell’s Product Governance Board, which
renders the final decision on classifications. The Annual Country
Classification announcement is published each September and an Interim
Update is published in March.
http://www.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/indexing-the-world_0.pdf
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
46
FTSE Russell’s approach to China’s onshore bonds classification
FTSE Russell provides a range of fixed income indexes designed to measure the
performance of onshore Chinese yuan-denominated fixed-rate government,
agency, and corporate debt issued in mainland China. These include the FTSE
Chinese (Onshore CNY) Broad Bond, the FTSE Chinese (Onshore CNY) Broad
Bond Index and the FTSE Chinese Government and Policy Bank Bond
(CNGPBI) Indexes.
FTSE Russell’s multi-currency benchmarks were also the first to include Onshore
Chinese government bonds in emerging market and regional government bond
indexes − following a 2016 client consultation, it was announced in March 2017
that China would be added to the flagship EM local currency FTSE EMGBI; as
well as the regional FTSE Asian Government Bond Index (AGBI). Inclusion was
effective from February 2018, with weight staggering over three months. While
FTSE Russell’s fixed income benchmarks offer broad tracking of China in
standalone, emerging markets and regional benchmarks, it is not currently a
member of our flagship multi-currency government investment grade FTSE
World Government Bond Index (WGBI).
In the fixed income benchmarking world, credit quality has tended to supersede
formal emerging market definitions, creating what are commonly referred to as
“crossover markets” within flagship investment grade, multi-currency benchmarks
for global portfolios. Benchmarks such as the FTSE World Government Bond
Index (WGBI) are comprised of high credit quality government bond markets that
are generally considered developed but have overlap with dedicated emerging
markets benchmarks such as the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond
Index (EMGBI). Examples of such crossover markets currently include South
Africa, Mexico and potentially China.
FTSE Russell has recently completed a market consultation on our proposal for a
robust and process-oriented fixed income country classification framework for
local currency government markets. It will calibrate a Market Accessibility Level
for a superset of local fixed-rate government bond markets with accessibility
measured across four dimensions: Market, Macroeconomic and Regulation;
Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Derivatives; Technical and Market
Structure; and Global Settlement and Custody. These levels will be formally
incorporated into the inclusion criteria of flagship multi-currency FTSE Russell
government benchmarks and available for use in custom indexes.
As with the equity framework, a Watch list of countries on the cusp of
reclassification will be published and maintained with status updates provided
each March and September. Inclusion of a market on the Watch List signals
FTSE Russell’s intent to engage with governments, central banks and regulators
to address specific feedback from investors on the fulfilment of the criteria for the
proposed accessibility level. China government bonds will be added to this
Watch List and assessed against the stated criteria of the framework for possible
inclusion in the FTSE World Government Bond Index. The full FTSE Fixed
FTSE Russell has
recently completed a
market consultation on
our proposal for a
robust and process-
oriented fixed income
country classification
framework for local
currency government
markets.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
47
Income Country Classification framework and a complete Watch List will be
published later this year.
Our goal as a multi-asset index provider is to offer index users and stakeholders
clarity and transparency into the country classifications that underpin our
benchmark construction for both fixed income and equity markets, while
acknowledging and preserving the clear and important nuances between the two
asset classes.
Conclusion
China has achieved an extraordinary economic transformation over the last fifty
years to become the world’s second largest economy. Political stability and long-
term reforms have urbanized its vast population and driven its expansionary
policies into manufacturing and export-orientated growth. Lifestyles are changing
with increasing demand for better healthcare and consumer services by a rapidly
growing middle class and a focus towards automation and robotics by a shrinking
working population. In the process of this gigantic undertaking, there has been
costs to the environment and financial stability. But these are being addressed
and redirected into new opportunities. China today is becoming a dominant
player in the green economy and reforming its financial system to provide a
robust corporate governance framework in which international investors can
operate.
Historically, international investors have had limited access to China’s vast
domestic market. Today there are a number of investment access routes as the
country opens its local market to international investors. As more overseas
investors enter China’s onshore markets, they will need to review their existing
investment strategy and determine whether they have sufficient representation of
the Chinese economy and their allocations are diversified across the different
China share classes.
FTSE Russell is delighted to announce the introduction of China A Shares into its
global equity benchmarks. As a result of recent enhancements to the Northbound
Stock Connect program, including but not limited to a four-fold increase in the
Daily Quota limit and the use of the Special Segregated Accounts (SPSA), which
allows the facilitation of DvP, China A Shares available via the Northbound Stock
Connect route will be classified as a Secondary Emerging market.
For fixed income, FTSE Russell has recently completed a market consultation on
our proposal for a robust and process-oriented fixed income country classification
framework for local currency government markets. China has been included on
the Watch List of markets for potential future promotion.
The full FTSE Fixed
Income Country
Classification framework
and a complete Watch
List will be published
later this year.
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
48
9. Appendix
Table 1: The table below compares the different equity access schemes
and summarizes important differences (June 2018).
QFII RQFII Northbound Stock Connect
Scheme Launch Year 2002 2011 2014
Eligible Entities Asset Management
- Having operated fund business for over 2 years
- Not less than US$500 million in securities asset under management in the last financial year
Insurance companies
- Established for over 2 years
- Not less than US$500 million in securities asset under management in the last financial year.
Securities companies
- Having operated securities business for over 5 years
- Not less than US$500 million in net assets and not less than US$5 billion in securities asset under management in the last financial year.
Commercial banks
- Having operated banking business for over 10 years
- Not less than US$300 million in tier one capital and not less than US$5 billion in securities asset under management in the last financial year.
Others (pension fund, charity fund, endowment fund, trust company, government investment institution)
- Established for over 2 years
- Not less than US$500 million in securities asset under management in the last financial year.
- Qualified financial institutions registered and having its principal place of business in the approved RQFII sites with asset management license issued by the competent local securities regulator, and have already conducted relevant asset management business.
-Total 19 RQFII sites: Australia, Canada, Chile, France, Germany, Hong Kong, SAR, Hungary, Ireland, South Korea, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Qatar, Singapore, Switzerland, Thailand, UAE, UK, United States, and Japan. Note: QFII license holder is allowed to apply for RQFII as well.
Enable eligible Hong Kong investors investing to Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) & Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) - All Hong Kong and overseas institutional investors
- All Hong Kong and overseas individual investors Note: Shares listed on the ChiNextBoard of the SZSE will be available only to institutional professional investors
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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QFII RQFII Northbound Stock Connect
Investment Scope Shares, bonds and warrants listed and transferred on the stock exchange:
- Fixed income products traded on China Interbank Bond Market.* - Securities investment funds Index futures. - Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SMEs) Private Placement Bonds. - Other financial instruments as approved by CSRC. - Subscription to IPO, additional issuance, rights issues, and convertible bond issuance. - FX derivatives (for hedging purposes).
*QFIIs and RQFIIs are allowed to trade cash bond, bond IPO and Negotiable Certificate of Deposit(per PBOC & CSRC’s verbal guidance). But trade in repo, margin trading and securities lending are still not allowed at the moment.
Same as QFII Currently limited to: SH-HK Northbound SC:
- All the constituent stocks of the SSE 180 Index and the SSE 380 Index.
- The SSE-listed shares which are dual-listed in Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK) (A+H Shares)
- Excluding: B Shares and shares under “risk alert”. SZ-HK Northbound SC
- All the constituent stocks of the SZSE Component Index and SZSE Small/Mid Cap Innovation Index with market capitalization of >RMB 6bn
- The SZSE-listed shares which are dual-listed in SEHK (A+H shares)
- Excluding: B Shares and shares under “risk alert”
Scheme Currency USD and other foreign currencies (converted to RMB onshore before investment commences).
RMB RMB
Quota Management Unique allowable investment allocation to each financial institution; funding is converted in RMB and registered with SAFE.
- QFIIs may obtain a Basic Quota up to a certain percentage of their asset size through filing with SAFE.
- When applying for the investment quota which exceeds the Basic Quota, QFII shall obtain SAFE’s approval.
When applying for additional quota for existing QFIIs:
- approved quota + additional quota < Basic Quota: filing with SAFE.
- approved quota + additional quota > Basic Quota: shall obtain SAFE’s approval.
Allocated to offshore regions
- RQFIIs may obtain a Basic Quota up to a certain percentage of their asset size through filing with SAFE
- When applying for the investment quota which exceeds the Basic Quota, RQFII shall obtain SAFE’s approval.
- When applying for additional quota for existing RQFIIs:
- approved quota + additional quota < Basic Quota: filing with SAFE
- approved quota + additional quota > Basic Quota: shall obtain SAFE’s approval
- A Basic Quota will be granted according to below benchmark:
- For RQFII or its group
Daily quota of the Northbound Stock Connect: RMB 52 billion.
Note: The quota is on a ‘first come first served’ basis.
SEHK Subsidiary shall continuously monitor the daily quota usage of Northbound Trading:
- Daily remaining quota=daily quota allowance – placed purchase orders + executed sale orders + cancelled/rejected purchase orders + difference between order price and execution price.
- Once the daily quota limit is triggered during continuous auction period, SEHK Subsidiary shall stop receiving
FTSE Russell | Understanding China’s Economic Development: Opportunities and Challenges for International Investors
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QFII RQFII Northbound Stock Connect
- A Basic Quota will be granted according to below benchmark:
- For QFII or its group company's asset (or assets under management) being mostly outside of mainland China: Basic Quota = USD100 million + 0.2%* average asset size or securities assets under management in the past three years
- approved RQFII Quota (USD equivalent) ;
- For QFII or its group company's asset (or assets under management) being mostly within mainland China: Basic Quota = RMB 5 billion + 80% * asset size or securities assets under management in the past one year
- approved RQFII quota (USD equivalent);
- Sovereign funds, central banks, and monetary authorities may obtain corresponding investment quota based on the investment needs in domestic capital market, and not be restricted by a certain percentage of their asset size
- Not exceeding USD 5 billion (including foreign central banks, monetary authorities and sovereign funds);
- Not less than USD 20 million
- Where a QFII fails to effectively utilize the investment quota within 1 year since filing or approval of investment quota upon obtaining the investment quota, SAFE has the right to revoke part or all of its unused Investment Quota.
- Adopted Balance Management regime: the accumulative net remitted-in amount by QFIIs shall not exceed the investment quota filed with or approved by SAFE.
-Sell or transfer of quota is prohibited.
company's asset (or assets under management) being mostly outside of mainland China: Basic Quota = USD100 million + 0.2% * average asset size or securities assets under management in the past three years - approved QFII Quota (RMB equivalent) ;
- For RQFII or its group company's asset (or assets under management) being mostly within mainland China: Basic Quota = RMB 5 billion + 80% * asset size or securities assets under management in the past one year - approved QFII quota (RMB equivalent);
- Sovereign funds, central banks, and monetary authorities may obtain corresponding investment quota based on the investment needs in domestic capital market, and not be restricted by a certain percentage of their asset size
- Where a RQFII fails to effectively utilize the investment quota within 1 year since filing or approval of investment quota upon obtaining the investment quota, SAFE has the right to revoke part or all of its unused Investment Quota.
-Adopted Balance Management regime: the accumulative net remitted-in amount by RQFIIs shall not exceed the investment quota filed with or approved by SAFE.
- Sell or transfer of quota is prohibited.
purchase orders while sale orders can be accepted.
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QFII RQFII Northbound Stock Connect
Other Regulations & Restrictions
No lock-up period. Needs to be prefunded. FX derivatives trading are permitted: To engage in the onshore FX derivative trading following ‘trading on actual needs’ principle for the purpose of hedging FX risk. Positions of FX derivatives not to exceed their onshore asset value (ex cash) as of the previous month-end. FX derivatives can be adjusted on a monthly basis, within 5 working days of the following month to ensure compliance with the ‘trading on actual needs’ principle.
No lock-up period. RQFIIs are exempted from business tax on gains derived from the trading of securities in China. However, they are required to pay 10% corporate income tax of dividends, bonuses and interest income gained in China.
Funds must return to origin; No lock-up period. Connect covers only about 50% of listed shares on the mainland.
Trading Mechanism - For stock exchange trading: each QFII can appoint 3 domestic securities companies at Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges respectively for securities trading.
-For CIBM trading: QFIIs shall appoint an interbank bond market settlement agent with international clearing capacity for trading and settlement.
Same as QFII Follow the same trading rules as China A Share market
Trading currency in RMB.
For SH-HK SC: SEHK will establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Shanghai to receive orders to trade in SSE securities from Exchange Participants and rout them onto SSE’s trading platform for execution on SSE.
For SZ-HK SC: SEHK has established another SEHK
Subsidiary in Qianhai Shenzhen, whose principal function is to receive
orders to trade in SZSE Securities from SEHK Participants and route them
onto SZSE’s trading platform for matching and execution on SZSE.
When trading mainland stocks investors can only place limit orders; orders for Shenzhen- and Shanghai-traded stocks must be within the price limit of +/-10% based on the securities’ previous closing price. Buy orders of A Shares must be in board lot of 100 shares, while sell orders can be in odd lots. Currently all Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed stocks are traded in renminbi.
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QFII RQFII Northbound Stock Connect
Investors are not allowed of conducting day trading of mainland-listed securities. It means A Shares purchased by investors on a trading day cannot be resold before settlement which is on the following business day.
Investors are only allowed to trade on the other markets when both markets are opened.
Investors are unable to trade A Shares on July 1st and June 30th.
Foreign Ownership Limit -Shareholding by a foreign investor through a QFII in a single listed company shall not exceed 10% of the total number of shares of the listed company;
-Aggregate shareholding of A Shares by all foreign investors in a single listed company shall not exceed 30% of the total number of shares of the listed company.
Same as QFII - Shareholding by a foreign investor through a QFII in a single listed company shall not exceed 10% of the total number of shares of the listed company;
-Aggregate shareholding of A Shares by all foreign investors in a single listed company shall not exceed 30% of the total number of shares of the listed company.
Settlement & Clearing T+0 (securities); T+1 (cash) Same as QFII T+0/T+1; SPSA process permits brokers to take a snapshot of the investor’s holdings to conduct pre-trading checks (synthetic DvP and Real-Time DvP are achieved via brokers pre-funding settlement).
Brokerage Services Can appoint up to 3 brokers in Shanghai and 3 brokers in Shenzhen. Although there are a number of brokers covering the two exchanges, these restrictions limit choice and may be an issue around major index rebalances in the event that the primary broker encounters any issues.
same as QFII
Market Cost Fees and taxes applicable to normal A-share trade:
-Securities Management Fee
- 0.00200% of the consideration of a transaction per side (Charged by CSRC)
-Transfer Fee
- Equities: 0.002% on the consideration payable by both
Same as QFII -Handling Fee – 0.00487% of the consideration of a transaction per side (Charged by SSE/SZSE)
-Securities Management Fee – 0.00200% of the consideration of a transaction per side (Charged by CSRC)
Transfer Fee – 0.002% of consideration of a transaction
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QFII RQFII Northbound Stock Connect
the buyer and seller levied by the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corp (CSDC) Shanghai and Shenzhen.
- Bonds: 0.005% is imposed on par value of shares transferred per trade, payable by transferor, with the minimum charged of CNY 10 and maximum of CNY 10000 levied by the CSDC Shanghai and Shenzhen. No charge for Bond Code segment 019 and 020.
-Stamp Duty
- 0.10000% of the consideration of a transaction on the seller (Charged by SAT)
For market cost of CIBM trades, please refer to those specified under CIBM section.
per side (charged by ChinaClear); 0.002% of consideration of a transaction per side (Charged by HKSCC)
Stamp Duty – 0.10000% of the consideration of a transaction on the seller (Charged by SAT)
33.
33
Source: Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) Website (http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/market/sec_tradinfra/chinaconnect/Documents/Investor_Book_En.pdf)
FTSE Russell 54
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