Research Program:

Drivers of spatial and temporal climate variability in extra-tropical Australia

Dietmar Dommenget

mode

Centre of Excellence

Land Convection (Atmosphere) Ocean

Extremes Modes of Variability

Research Programs

Climate Variability Community

CIs PostDocs PhD students

Dietmar Dommenget Claudia Frauen Lam Hoang

Micheal Reeder Laura O’Brien Teresa Parker

Byju Pookandy

Nick Tyrrell

Gang Wang

Core Team

Core Team

Themes

ACCESS

Weather-Climate

ENSO

Decadal / Change

Model Errors

Seasonal Prediction

Themes

ACCESS

Weather-Climate

ENSO

Decadal / Change

Model Errors

Seasonal Prediction

ACCESS model hierarchy

Slab oceanAMIP

Slab oceanAMIP

ACCESS 1.3

ACCESS MOM-EP

UM-NXXX

ML-ocean

Ocean complexity

Atm

os. c

ompl

exity

ML-ocean Slab oceanENSO

published

running

building

UM-N96

UM-N48

EP-GCMAMIP Slab ocean ML-columns Coarse GCM

CMS-Team et al.

Themes

ACCESS

Weather-Climate

ENSO

Decadal / Change

Model Errors

Seasonal Prediction

backwards

Tess Parker et al.

Weather-Climate Connection

Examples:

Heat wave – Tropical cyclones

Weather Phenomenon

Climate Phenomenon

Weather Variables

Climate Variables

Weather Dynamics

Climate Dynamics

Heat wave Tropical Cyclone

forwardsTropical Cyclone Heat wave

Weather-Climate Connection

Examples:

Heat wave – Tropical cyclones

Fronts

Weather Phenomenon

Climate Phenomenon

Weather Variables

Climate Variables

Weather Dynamics

Climate Dynamics

Climatology of Fronts

Gareth Berry et al.

Weather-Climate Connection

Examples:

Heat wave – Tropical cyclones

Fronts

Walker/Hadley Cell

Weather Phenomenon

Climate Phenomenon

Weather Variables

Climate Variables

Weather Dynamics

Climate Dynamics

Hadley Circulation (meridional)

Juliane Schwendike et al.

Walker Circulation (zonal)

Stream function / Divergence

Themes

ACCESS

Weather-Climate

ENSO

Decadal / Change

Model Errors

Seasonal Prediction

ENSO

El Nino DiversityCP: central Pacific EP: east Pacific

ENSO

El Nino Diversity

Non-linear dynamics

Atmos. Dynamics

Wind response

-50% (La Nina)

50% (El Nino)

200% (El Nino) El Nino Diversity

Non-linear dynamics

Atmos. Dynamics

Non-linear teleconnections

ENSO

CP: central Pacific EP: east Pacific

SLP response per NINO3.4 SST

-200% (La Nina)

Claudia Frauen et al.

ENSO

El Nino Diversity

Non-linear dynamics

Atmos. Dynamics

Non-linear teleconnections

Tropical inter-basin interactions

- -

ENSO

El Nino Diversity

Non-linear dynamics

Atmos. Dynamics

Non-linear teleconnections

Tropical inter-basin interactions

ENSO <-> climate change

Themes

ACCESS

Weather-Climate

ENSO

Decadal / Change

Model Errors

Seasonal Prediction

Decadal Variability / Climate Change

What are the structures of Decadal variability?

How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact?

What is the role of the southern Ocean?

CMIP5 Percentage of decadal variability

Gang Wang et al.

Decadal Variability / Climate ChangeLa Nina causes Global Warming Hiatus ?

[Kosaka and Xie, Nature 2013]

CMIP5 Pacific trends 1980-2010

Jing-Jia Luo et al.

What are the structures of Decadal variability?

How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact?

What is the role of the southern Ocean?

How does climate change interact with decadal variability?

Decadal Variability / Climate ChangeLa Nina causes Global Warming Hiatus ?

[Kosaka and Xie, Nature 2013]

- -

Jing-Jia Luo et al.

What are the structures of Decadal variability?

How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact?

What is the role of the southern Ocean?

How does climate change interact with decadal variability?

What are the circulation changes under global warming and how can we understand them?

Themes

ACCESS

Weather-Climate

ENSO

Decadal / Change

Model Errors

Seasonal Prediction

Model Errors

Bottom Up approach

Process Process Process

CGCM

Climate

Top Down approach

CGCM

Process Process Process

Climate

Model Errors

Bottom Up approach

Traditional approach

Process Process Process

CGCM

Climate Error

Top Down approach

CGCM

Climate

Can we improve the GCMs without improving any

process?

Model uncertainties in climate sensitivity

Regional response difference [%]

Glob

al m

ean

resp

onse

diff

eren

ce [%

]

Model Errors

A simple (GREB) climate model study

Model Errors

Model uncertainties in climate sensitivity

Dommenget et al.

ACCESS

Weather-Climate

ENSO

Decadal / Change

Model Errors

Seasonal Prediction

Research Program:Modes of Variability

Football Team

DiscussionHow to improve CGCMs?

Current view (literature):

Improve model parts (Clouds, Convection, Ocean, Ice)

(physical parameterizations, resolution)

Hypothesis (this study):

Improve mean state climate(improve coupling)

(flux corrections, anomaly coupling)

CGCMs

Improve individual player skills(no coaching)

Improve team play(coaching)

Model Errors

1. Julie tropics vs. s-hemis2. Weather statistics?3. My climate change4. Process vs. coupled system