U.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationU.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Research Opportunitiesat the Census BureauThe ASA/NSF/Census Bureau Research Fellow Program

Issued July 2001

DIR/01-RFP

Research Opportunitiesat the Census Bureau

U.S. Department of CommerceDonald L. Evans,

Secretary

Economics and Statistics AdministrationKathleen B. Cooper, Under Secretary

for Economic Affairs

U.S. CENSUS BUREAUWilliam G. Barron, Jr.,

Acting Director

Issued July 2001

DIR/01-RFPThe ASA/NSF/Census Bureau Research Fellow Program

U.S. CENSUS BUREAUWilliam G. Barron, Jr.,

Acting Director

William G. Barron, Jr.,Deputy Director

John H. Thompson,Principal Associate Director

for Programs

Cynthia Z.F. Clark,Associate Director for

Methodology and Standards

Economics and StatisticsAdministration

Kathleen B. Cooper,Under Secretary

for Economic Affairs

ECONOMICS

AND STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION

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Table of Contents

Program Description ......................................................................................................... 3

About the Census Bureau .................................................................................................. 4

Advantages of This Program ............................................................................................. 4

Suggested Projects ............................................................................................................ 4

Social and Demographic Studies ....................................................................................... 5

Economic Measurement and Analysis ................................................................................ 8

Statistical Methodology and Computing .......................................................................... 11

Administrative Information ............................................................................................. 14

Application Procedure ..................................................................................................... 15

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Program Description

The ASA/NSF/Census Bureau Research FellowProgram will help to bridge the gap betweengovernment and academic science. This ap-proach brings researchers closer to the produc-tion of the data sets relevant to their research.The program allows senior statisticians, socialscientists, computer scientists, geographers,and others to come to the Census Bureau asResearch Fellows for a period of 6 to 12 monthsto use Census Bureau data sets and interact withCensus Bureau staff.

Applicants for fellowships should have recog-nized research records and considerable exper-tise in their areas of proposed research. Theproposed projects may be in any area related toCensus Bureau methodology or data. Researchtopics of interest to the Census Bureau are citedin this brochure.

We also encourage proposals in other areasrelevant to Census Bureau data or methodology.Applicants must submit detailed research pro-posals for competitive evaluation. A ProgramReview Board composed of staff from the CensusBureau and members of academic associationsrelevant to the areas of research review theapplications and select the Fellows for theprogram.

We encourage researchers to seek further sup-port from the National Science Foundation (NSF)for their work begun under, or stimulated by, theresearch program. Such support requires apply-ing to NSF for a regular project grant. Informa-tion about procedures for submitting proposalsto NSF should be requested soon after enteringthe research program. If such continuing re-search is funded, it may continue at the CensusBureau or at an academic or supporting institu-tion.

See Administrative Information for the applica-tion procedure.

Program ManagerMs. Peggy PooleMethodology and Standards DirectorateCensus BureauWashington, DC 20233-9001Telephone: 301-457-4895E-mail: Margaret.A.Poole@census.gov

Statistical MethodologyDr. William BellSenior Mathematical Statistician for

Small Area EstimationMethodology and Standards DirectorateCensus BureauWashington, DC 20233-9100Telephone: 301-457-4728E-mail: William.R.Bell@census.gov

Direct questions about fellowships or research topics to any of the following program representativesat the Census Bureau, Washington, DC 20233.

Social and Demographic StudiesDr. Daniel WeinbergChief, Housing and Household Economic

StatisticsCensus BureauWashington, DC 20233-8500Telephone: 301-457-3234E-mail: Daniel.H.Weinberg@census.gov

GeographyDr. Robert MarxChief, Geography DivisionCensus BureauWashington, DC 20233-7400Telephone: 301-457-2131E-mail: Robert.W.Marx@census.gov

Economic StudiesDr. Arnold ReznekCenter for Economic StudiesCensus BureauWashington, DC 20233-6300Telephone: 301-457-1856E-mail: rezne001@ces.census.gov

ASA/NSF/Census Bureau Research Fellow Program

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About the Census Bureau

The Census Bureau is the largest general-purpose statistical agency in the United States.By conducting censuses and surveys of house-holds, individuals, business firms, and govern-ments, the Census Bureau produces demo-graphic and economic statistics. These statisticscount and profile the people and institutions ofthe United States and their interaction with therest of the world. Specifically, the Census Bureauconducts censuses and sample surveys in theareas of population, housing, manufactures,business (wholesale trade, retail trade, and ser-vices), mineral industries, construction, finance,transportation, governments, and foreign trade.

The Census Bureau produces data for publicationand use by other government agencies. By con-ducting surveys for other government agencies,the Census Bureau actually collects and tabulatesmuch of the data these agencies publish. Ex-amples include the American Housing Survey forthe Department of Housing and Urban Develop-ment, the National Crime Victimization Surveyfor the Department of Justice, the ManufacturingEnergy Consumption Survey for the Departmentof Energy, and the Consumer Expenditure Surveyfor the Department of Labor. In addition, theCensus Bureau makes extensive use of otherfederal agencies’ administrative records incompiling its statistical data. The Census Bureauhas garnered the reputation as the “Factfinderfor the Nation.” The annual Census Catalogand Guide is the best reference on the CensusBureau’s programs. This reference contains aproduct overview and index, abstracts of prod-ucts released since 1980, ordering informationand forms, lists of sources of assistance, andan informative series of facts on Census Bureauprograms. The publication is available in locallibraries and from the Customer Service Center,Marketing Services Office, Census Bureau,Washington, DC 20233-1900, 301-763-4636.

The Census Bureau conducts its own method-ological and subject-matter research aimed atimproving its data production programs. Currentbroad research areas include statistical stand-ards, survey design and estimation, evaluation

and quality assurance, confidentiality, nonsampl-ing errors, automation, data analysis, time seriesanalysis, statistical computing, and organization-al research.

Advantages of This Program

By conducting research projects at the CensusBureau, the researchers have a unique opportu-nity to make major advances in methodologyand applications in many areas. These areasinclude, but are not limited to, the suggestedprojects discussed in this brochure. This oppor-tunity is unique for three reasons: (1) research-ers become special sworn Census Bureau em-ployees; (2) researchers can work directly withCensus Bureau staff who are most familiar withthe data and with methods of producing thedata; and (3) researchers have the opportunity tobecome more familiar with federal statisticalagencies and resources in the Washington area.The status of a special sworn Census Bureauemployee gives the researchers access to surveymicrodata that regular Census Bureau employeeshave. This is particularly advantageous asmicrodata are not generally released because ofthe legal requirement to protect respondentconfidentiality. Researchers have the sameresponsibility as employees to protect the confi-dentiality of Census Bureau data.

Suggested Projects

Suggested projects are listed under three head-ings reflecting the organization of the CensusBureau: social and demographic studies, eco-nomic measurement and analysis, and statisticalmethodology and computing. Proposed projectsmay fall into more than one category and arenot limited to those listed here. Any proposedproject should have the potential to encouragefurther significant broadly based research and

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should require hands-on access to CensusBureau data. We welcome projects that couldlead to improvements in the quality and useful-ness of our data.

Social and Demographic Studies

Projects in this area concern Census Bureausurveys and censuses of households and indi-viduals.

Decennial Census Undercount Research.Much discussion in the legal, political, andstatistical communities concerns estimating theundercount in the census. We are solicitingproposals to investigate the following issues:

• How census coverage can best be measured?

• How local area estimates of coverage canbest be made?

• How census coverage might affect criticaluses of the data?

Survey of Income and Program Participation(SIPP). The SIPP is a series of nationally repre-sentative panels of the noninstitutionalizedpopulation. To date, there have been ten panelsintroduced annually; each panel typically re-mains in the survey for 2 1/2 years. In 1996, anew panel was introduced to last 4 years. EachSIPP panel provides detailed information throughpersonal interviews at 4-month intervals. Theinformation contains intrayear sources of moneyand nonmoney income, taxes, assets, and liabili-ties. Information is also collected on specialtopics, such as education and work history,health and disability, fertility, migration, andemployer-provided benefits.

Research Fellows may use SIPP data for concep-tual, methodological, or applied studies on largelongitudinal social science databases. Oneparticularly useful approach might be to matchcontextual variables to the local geography.Some principal areas of research interest includethe following:

• Sources of, and reasons for, intrayearchanges in income, assets, and programparticipation.

• Methods to compensate for attrition andnonresponse.

• Stochastic modeling of events, such asmovement into and out of poverty.

• Measurement of the dynamics of householdand family composition and how they relateto program participation and poverty status.

The American Community Survey (ACS).The ACS is being tested as an eventual replace-ment for the census long form. Starting in 2003,the ACS will sample 250,000 different addresseseach month, providing detailed demographic andsocial data for geographic areas and populationgroups. Between now and 2003, there is ongo-ing testing and evaluation of the ACS, includingdetailed comparisons of 1999-2001 ACS aver-ages with the Census 2000 estimates. Areas ofresearch interest include:

• Methods for analyzing moving averages,including uses in formulas to allocate fundsaccording to measures of need.

• Statistical modeling of effects on surveydata due to differences in questionnairesand residence definitions.

• Models to estimate survey costs andoptimize survey operations.

Analysis and Evaluation of Housing Statis-tics. Statistics on housing are available fromthe decennial census and from several periodicnational surveys. We welcome proposals forapplied studies using these data and for thefollowing projects that are of particular interest:

• Use of modeling to help improve estimatesof households’ utility costs.

• Evaluation of data items on the qualityand value of housing.

• Research to explain consistent differences,across censuses and surveys, in the numbersof owner-occupied housing units and rentedunits.

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• Design of a sampling frame to estimateadditions to the housing stock from sourcesother than new construction.

• Development of county-level estimates ofthe number of housing units.

Intercensal Population Estimates and Pop-ulation Projections. This project develops,produces, and disseminates population estimatesand projections by major demographic character-istics for the nation, states, counties, and sub-county areas in a timely fashion. Populationestimates are produced using the last censusdata as the base, and current administrativerecords, such as births, deaths, federal taxreturns, medicare enrollment, immigration, etc.,for changes since the last census. Populationprojections are estimates for future dates andillustrate plausible courses of future populationchange based on assumptions about futurebirths, deaths, international migration, andinternal migration.

Projects in this area could include a wide varietyof topics:

• Exact matching techniques foradministrative data sets.

• Geographic coding procedures tomatch mailing address informationto census geography.

• Methods of correcting for biasedcoverage of administrative records.

• Methods for expanding the level ofgeographic and characteristic detailin Census Bureau estimates.

• Procedures for combining short- andlong-term population projection models.

• Methods of estimating and presentingmultiple projections scenarios versusforecast intervals.

• Application of time series methods topopulation projections.

• Combination of demographic andeconomic methods in populationprojections.

• Development of current measures ofthe various components of internation-al migration, including measures ofunauthorized and temporary migrationand emigration.

Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates.The Census Bureau has begun a program toprovide a biennial series of estimates of sixstatistics of income and poverty—per capitaincome, median household income, and thenumber of persons below the poverty thresholdfor four age groups (age 65 and over, age 5-17,under 5 years of age, and all ages)—for statesand counties. County-level estimates have beenissued for income years 1993, 1995, and 1997,and state-level estimates for years 1993, 1995,1996, and 1997. State-level estimates will beissued for income year 1998 in 2001, andcounty-level estimates for income year 1999 inlate 2002. Estimates are based on modelscombining decennial census estimates, directsample estimates, and federal administrativedata. Projects in this area could include:

• Investigations relating concurrentmeasurements of basic income andpoverty statistics from any pair ofsources—the decennial census andcurrent surveys, the census and admin-istrative records, or current surveysand administrative records.

• Optimal methods for combining“symptomatic indicators”; e.g., numberof food stamp recipients, with moredirect measures of income and poverty.

• Validation studies.

Research is also needed on methodologicaltopics including: using of mixed GeneralizedLinear Models to address the discreteness of thecounty poverty data; developing better ways tointegrate the state and county models; improv-ing estimates of mean squared error for themodel-based estimates; assessing alternativeways of incorporating 2000 census data into themodels; and developing and assessing alterna-tive procedures, and possibly models, for theschool district estimation.

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Estimation and Analysis of Biases andErrors in Demographic Estimates. From ademographic or statistical perspective, ResearchFellows would investigate ways to improveCensus Bureau postcensus demographic esti-mates. These data include estimates of popula-tion by age, race, and sex for national andsubnational geographic areas. Research wouldcenter on gaining a better understanding ofbiases in the current estimation methods,specifying new methods to reduce these biases,and estimating error variances of the methods.Sample topics include the following:

• Investigation of possible basic deficienciesin the Census Bureau’s handling of demo-graphic accounts for estimates (especiallythe international migration component),such as whether the demographic compo-nents are adequately measured or estimatedor whether better estimation procedures canbe devised using other indicator variables orrelationships than are now used.

• Use of statistical or simulation methods toquantify biases in demographic estimatesand the sensitivity of the estimationmethods to changes in their underlyingassumptions.

Adjusting for Nonsampling Errors in In-come Surveys. Income statistics derived fromSurvey of Income and Program Participation andthe March Current Population Survey are subjectto nonsampling error problems. These errorsaffect the accuracy of our measures of incomeinequality, estimates of the low- income popula-tion, and estimates of participation in govern-ment transfer programs. The researcher woulddevelop profiles of the level and characteristicsof the nonsampling error for specific incometypes and would investigate alternative proce-dures for adjusting the survey data at themicrolevel to reduce the magnitude of theseerrors.

Coverage Evaluation in Demographic Sur-veys. Undercoverage in demographic surveys ismuch higher than in the decennial census, and itvaries across demographic groups. For example,the estimate for undercoverage is more than15 percent for Black males and is even greaterfor young Black males in the Current PopulationSurvey. Research could focus on:

• Reasons for greater undercoverage insurveys than in the census.

• Types of people missed in surveys whoare not missed in the census.

• Coverage comparisons among differentCensus Bureau surveys or between CensusBureau surveys and those of other countries.

• Field tests of methods that may improvecoverage.

Valuation of Noncash Benefits. Noncashbenefits have become an increasingly importantcomponent of economic well-being in the UnitedStates. These benefits are received by house-holds all along the income distribution, rangingfrom means-tested transfer provided by thegovernment to various fringe benefits providedby employers. Although extensive survey in-formation is available on the recipiency of thesebenefits, much more work is needed to assigndollar values to them. Extensive work has beendone at the Census Bureau to value the majorgovernment-provided benefits, such as foodstamps, free or reduced-price school lunches,public housing, medicaid, and medicare. Addi-tional work is needed, however, to refine theseestimates, particularly for medical care. Workis also underway for valuing employer-providedbenefits, such as contributions for health careand pensions, but much more effort is needed.Such privately provided benefits are much moredifficult to value than government-providedbenefits because they come in so many differentforms, and independent administrative dataare often scarce. The researcher could developmethodologies to produce and refine estimatesof noncash benefits, assess the accuracy ofthese estimates, and examine the effect onmeasures of income distribution and poverty.

Analysis of Special Population Groups.The Census Bureau conducts research on a widearray of population groups for whom the agencycollects data in its current surveys and in thedecennial census. Among these groups arethose identified in questions on age, gender,race, Hispanic origin, ancestry, place of birth,citizenship, and year of entry. One key focus ison the five standard Office of Management andBudget racial categories (White, Black or AfricanAmerican, American Indian and Alaska Native,

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Asian, and Native Hawaiian and Other PacificIslander), the Hispanic population, and theforeign-born population. In addition, there isconsiderable interest in issues affecting thepopulation by gender and also for particular agegroups, especially the older population. Finally,there is increasing interest in the population thatresides transiently or not at all in households,including some components of the institutional-ized population (e.g., prisons and jail inmates),group quarters population (e.g., shelter resi-dents), as well as the population with no usualresidence. Some of the salient research issues inthis subject-matter area are:

• Reasons for persistently greater under-coverage in surveys and the census amongcertain population groups (e.g., Blacks orAfrican Americans, American Indians andAlaska Natives, Hispanics, and the foreignborn).

• Methods for improving coverage amongpersistently undercounted groups.

• Social, economic, and demographic differen-tials among population groups.

• Cultural changes and differences thataffect questionnaire design and surveyprocedures.

• Changing living arrangements occurringin today’s society.

International Demographic and Socioeco-nomic Analysis. The Census Bureau hasworking relationships and information exchangeprograms with many national statistical officesaround the world and therefore has a wealth ofinternational statistics, including a 100,000volume international library. It produces popula-tion estimates and projections for all countriesof the world and makes these data available ina database on the Internet. Areas of interestinclude:

• Demographic methods for incomplete anddefective data.

• Population projection methods forsubnational areas.

• International demographic and socio-economic aspects of population aging.

• The demographic impact of HIV/AIDSin developing countries.

• Building geodemographic databases andanalyses.

• Social, demographic, and economic trendsin post-Soviet Eastern and Central Europe.

Economic Measurementand Analysis

Projects in this area concern censuses andsurveys of business establishments, firms, andpublic sector agencies. General areas of interestinclude the following:

• Conceptual and empirical issues in themeasurement of economic and relatedvariables.

• Procedures for assessing the accuracyand improving the measurement ofeconomic variables.

• Development and application of appropriateeconomic and econometric frameworks foranalyzing detailed Census Bureau data forbusinesses and other economic entities.

• Analysis of changes in federal, state, andlocal fiscal responsibility for providingservices.

• Survey implications measuring e-businessand other new economy issues.

• Survey implications of the introduction ofthe North American Industry ClassificationSystem and the revised Standard Occupa-tional Classification.

• Exploration of forecasting and policy usesof Census Bureau data at the national andregional levels.

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• Topics of particular interest are notedbelow, but we encourage proposals inother areas.

Analysis of Establishment and Firm Data.The Longitudinal Research Database (LRD) isavailable for econometric studies of establish-ments and firms. The LRD contains annualdata from 1972 to the most recently completedsurvey year, covering over 350,000 manufactur-ing establishments in census years and from55,000 to 70,000 in noncensus years. Themicrodata in the files are confidential, whichprecludes direct use except by sworn CensusBureau employees, including Research Fellowsand Census Bureau Scholars. Together with datafrom other surveys (e.g., Research and Develop-ment, Capacity Utilization, Pollution Abatement),the LRD enables researchers to conduct a widerange of economic and econometric time seriesand cross-section studies of individual establish-ments and groups of establishments. The dataare well suited for econometric studies of pro-duction relationships and industrial organizationstudies.

Econometric studies of production relationships,such as:

• Production and cost models.

• Interrelated factor demand analyses.

• Technical change, productivity, and efficiency.

• Economies of scale and scope.

• Input and output measurement.

Industrial organization studies, such as:

• Entry and exit of firms.

• Mergers and acquisition.

• Relationship between firm size andemployment dynamics.

• Effects of technical change on marketstructure.

Analysis of Research and DevelopmentActivity. The Census Bureau conducts anannual survey of research and development

(R&D) expenditures by major R&D performingand sponsoring companies. Both cross-sectionand time series studies can be conducted usingcompany-level files containing data from 1972.These data contain a wide range of informationon firm R&D, including expenditures by type,location, and industry. These data permit re-searchers to address a wide range of importantR&D-related economic measurement and policyissues. Some examples are:

• R&D in relation to productivity.

• Innovation and its diffusion.

• Demand for scientists and engineers.

• Capital formation and R&D.

Economic Measurement and Analysis in theService Sectors. The Census Bureau is expand-ing industry coverage and the types of datacollected for these sectors, especially telecom-munication, real estate and finance, transporta-tion, and various business services, such asadvertising, accounting, and legal services.We welcome proposals on the following topics:

• Output measurement and deflation(particularly in multiple-output ormultiple-characteristics frameworks).

• Input definition and measurement,technological change.

• Capital input measurement, depreciation,and obsolescence.

• Economies of scale and scope.

• Conceptual framework for productclassification system for services.

• Market share definition, stability, and trends.

Construction Cost and Output Indexes.Indexes used by the Census Bureau to deflatethe value of new nonresidential construction putin place have been inadequate. Research todevelop a new indexing program would involvedevelopment of cost models for different typesof nonresidential construction, such as indus-trial, commercial, and medical; a review ofcurrent program data for application to costmodels; and recommendations for additional

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data collection to support improved index meth-ods.

Small Business Entrepreneurship: TheCharacteristics of Business Owners (CBO)Survey. This survey is sponsored by the CensusBureau, the Minority Business DevelopmentAgency, and the Small Business Administration.The survey presents data about the demo-graphic, sociological, and financial characteris-tics of minority- and women-owned businesses,as well as a comparable nonminority malebusiness universe. The data from this samplesurvey were collected as part of the economiccensuses and are intended to expand andaugment the data published in two economiccensuses reports—the Survey of Women-OwnedBusiness Enterprises and the Survey of Minority-Owned Business Enterprises. Research Fellowswill have access to the microdata from the CBOsurvey (covering 125,000 business owners andtheir enterprises in each of 1982, 1987, and1992). These data are particularly suited tostudies of minority small business entrepreneur-ship.

Improving Merchandise Trade Statistics.The Census Bureau is responsible for compilingdetailed U.S. merchandise trade statistics, usingdocuments collected by the Customs Service,Department of the Treasury. In recent years,increasing concern has developed about theeconomic effects of foreign trade, resulting incriticism of the scope, accuracy, and timelinessof the available data on trade.

We welcome research proposals that may lead toimproved estimates, especially in the followingareas:

• Determining what trade information is likelyto be most in demand and require the great-est accuracy in the coming decades, andsuggesting changes in the existing datasystem to provide this information.

• Improving data collection, data processing,estimates of low-valued transactions, andquality assurance through such means asintroducing sampling into the collectionprocess and increasing the use of automa-tion.

• Improving monthly real (deflated) estimatesof merchandise trade flows.

• Evaluating the coverage of the merchandisetrade statistics, particularly for exports.

• Evaluating the impact of the new AutomatedExport System on the coverage, accuracy,and consistency of the trade data.

• Evaluating the interpretation, quality, cover-age, and consistency of the subnational tradedata, such as by state or metropolitan area.

Measurement of Capital Investment inEconomic Surveys. The Census Bureau mea-sures capital investment in a variety of ways inits economic survey programs. A primary usefor these data is in the nonresidential fixedinvestment component of the Gross DomesticProduct. Conceptually, these data are not com-pletely consistent with each other or with theGross National Product investment definition.The Census Bureau welcomes proposals thatwould help provide greater standardization andconsistency among these measures of capitalinvestment. A related issue is the improvementof measures of capital stocks, taking into ac-count such factors as the economic life of capitalgoods and the sensitivity of capital stocks tochanges in technology and relative factor prices.

Microfoundations of Macroeconomics.Recently, researchers at the Census Bureau andelsewhere have begun to recognize that under-standing aggregate (macroeconomic) fluctua-tions requires studying the behavior of individualplants and firms. For example, studies usingdata from the Longitudinal Research Databaseshow that when economic conditions change,plants’ and firms’ adjustments in employmentand investment are often lumpy (not smooth)and that such microeconomic reallocation andrestructuring has macroeconomic effects. Thecurrently available macroeconomic time seriesoften mask these effects. Further, some re-searchers suggest that our understanding ofaggregate fluctuations could be enhanced ifcertain new aggregate measures were madeavailable—based on the higher moments (e.g.,skewness, kurtosis) of the cross-section distri-butions of variables, such as investment andemployment. Research proposals in this newresearch area are particularly welcome.

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E-Business Measurements. The integrationof information, communication, and computertechnology opens new purchasing channels toconsumers and provides firms with the opportu-nity to fundamentally change the way theyoperate and conduct their business. The Eco-nomic Directorate has an ambitious programunderway that provides the first official govern-ment estimates of e-commerce sales ande-business process use. Research is underwayto better understand the impact of e-businessprocesses on industries, companies, and ourprograms. The research includes such areas as:

• Measuring and analyzing e-businessprocesses.

• Designing surveys of the supply chain,based on recent research on how e-businessprocesses are changing supply chain relation-ships and functions.

• Surveying e-business activities of govern-ment entities.

• The impact of electronic distribution anddelivery of products on the nation’s foreigntrade statistics program.

Statistical Methodologyand Computing

This area includes research that is not necessar-ily tied to particular Census Bureau data sets, buthas broad application to the collection, process-ing, or analysis of Census Bureau data. Surveymethodology and related areas are of particularinterest, along with any other research topicsthat may lead to improved data quality andreduced costs.

Survey Methodology. The Census Bureau isinterested in projects dealing with any aspect ofsurvey methodology, which (for purposes of thisbrochure) encompass all the steps taken inconducting a survey or a census:

• Determining survey objectives.

• Defining the target population.

• Selecting the frame (or frames).

• Designing the sample.

• Choosing the method of measurement(e.g., personal or telephone interviews,or mailed questionnaires).

• Selecting the information to be obtainedand the questions to be asked.

• Selecting and training interviewers andother field workers.

• Conducting pretests.

• Organizing the fieldwork.

• Organizing data management (dataprocessing and quality control).

• Data analysis, particularly of longitudinaldata.

These items are of continuing interest to theCensus Bureau because the Census Bureau iscontinually developing and redesigning itssurveys and censuses. Many of the CensusBureau’s demographic surveys (of householdsand individuals) are redesigned around the timeof the decennial census, and many of the eco-nomic surveys (of business establishments andfirms) are redesigned around the time of thevarious economic censuses which are conductedin years ending in “2” and “7.” Many of theprojects below and those in other sections ofthis brochure relate to particular problems ofsurvey methodology.

The Adjustment for Nonresponse in SampleSurveys and Censuses. Research in this areawould be aimed at improving data quality by:

• Developing data collection proceduresthat reduce nonresponse (e.g., throughimproved questionnaire design, trainingin interviewing techniques, etc.).

• Exploring and evaluating new or existingtechniques for reducing nonresponse biasin estimates.

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Quality Improvement and Its Measurement.The Census Bureau encourages proposals forways to apply a wide range of quality improve-ment methods to a variety of Census Bureauoperations, including interviewing and dataprocessing. Researchers could investigate suchtopics as the following:

• Methods to objectively estimate costs tousers of various kinds of errors in CensusBureau data (loss functions).

• Integrated overall error models, withprovisions for estimating magnitudes ofrelationships among various error sources.

• Methods of adapting evolutionary operationstechniques to various Census Bureau opera-tions, especially controlled experimentsunder operating conditions.

• Ways to measure how quality and produc-tivity relate to factors, such as alternativeorganizational structures, or presumedmorale builders, such as quality circles.

• Effective patterns of quality control feedback,training, and incentives for enumerators andmanagers that would be applicable to largeeconomic or demographic censuses andsurveys.

• Ways to report to users most usefully andobjectively the levels and relationships oferrors.

Cognitive Processes and Question Re-sponse. The construction of questions andquestionnaires is frequently described as an “art”or “craft.” Survey methodologists have studiedsuch issues as the effects of question placementwithin a questionnaire and the tendency ofrespondents to recall events as happening morerecently or more distantly than they actuallyoccurred. Proposals are sought from those whowould use the methods of the cognitive sciencesto improve the understanding of such question-naire construction issues as question order, thechoice of vocabulary in a question, the choice ofresponse categories, and response analysisstudies of questionnaires. The topic offerscognitive and other social scientists the opportu-nity to use Census Bureau surveys to extendlaboratory-based theories of the way in which

people comprehend, store, and retrieve informa-tion, make judgments and causal inferences, andrespond to questions.

Telephone Survey Methods. In anticipationof the increasing use of centralized telephoneinterviewing in data collection, the CensusBureau has conducted experiments withComputer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing(CATI) and Random Digit Dialing (RDD) telephonesampling. In addition, the Census Bureau hasinvestigated dual-frame mixed mode samplingdesigns. Developmental and evaluative researchtopics in this area include the following:

• Modeling and estimation of telephonesurvey nonsampling error.

• Comparison of CATI and conventionalinterviewing in terms of data quality,costs, and estimates produced.

• Touchtone data entry and voice recognition.

• Cost modeling of new and conventionalcollection methods and minimization ofsurvey costs.

• Improving the efficiency of RDD, list-assisted,and related telephone sampling methods.

• Optimum allocation of resources in dual-frame sampling designs, taking both sam-pling and nonsampling errors into account.

Confidentiality Protection and RelatedTopics. Statistical confidentiality deals with theproblem of releasing statistical data that are asaccurate and complete as possible while avoid-ing disclosure of information collected fromindividual respondents. We welcome proposalsthat would supplement the Census Bureau’sresearch in the following topics:

• Masking and microaggregation techniques.

• Rounding and other perturbation techniquesfor frequency counts.

• Cell suppression strategies for aggregatedata based on mathematical programmingformulations.

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• Development of suitable measures ofdisclosure risk and the effects of disclosure-avoidance methods on data usefulness.

Related areas of interest for proposals include:

• Development of public use files of economicmicrodata (see Developing Public Use Files ofEconomic Microdata above).

• Statistical database security.

• Methods to assess and improve or maintainpublic attitudes about confidentiality infederal statistical programs.

Small Area Estimation. The Census Bureauhas broad interests in research into statisticalmethods for small area estimation with applica-tion to Census Bureau surveys. One importantapplication is the Small Area Income and PovertyEstimates program, discussed earlier underSocial and Demographic Studies. Other areasof potential application include the AmericanCommunity Survey and small area coverageestimation for the decennial census. Researchinterests cover a wide range of small area topicsrelevant to models of survey aggregates or tounit level models.

Census Coverage Estimation. The CensusBureau has had a long term commitment tocontinually improve the coverage of the de-cennial census. A critical component of anongoing research effort is to obtain new andimproved measurements of census coverage.For Census 2000, the Accuracy and CoverageEvaluation (A.C.E.) provides an independentassessment of census coverage. The methodol-ogy, known as dual-system estimation, is basedon the capture/recapture technique to estimatenet coverage error. Continued research is need-ed to develop better estimators so that coverageproperties of the decennial census can be betterunderstood. In particular, more research isneeded on better statistical methods to estimatethe gross error components of census coveragefor both housing units and persons. Addition-ally, research is necessary to determine howthese errors are distributed to small geographicareas. Possible areas of exploration includedeveloping enhanced missing data procedures,new post-strata, new models for estimating net

or gross error, new models for small area esti-mates, or new models for joint coverage ofpersons and housing units. The A.C.E. providesa wealth of data for researchers to explore andanalyze new techniques. Research is needed todevelop innovative ideas that could improve thequality of the next decennial census.

Geographic Issues for Current Surveys.The Census Bureau publishes data for severalsubnational geographic units, such as states,regions, counties, and metropolitan areas. Manydata users say that the Census Bureau shouldpublish more data for different types of geo-graphic units. Suggestions include types ofsettlement areas (e.g., neighborhoods, inner-cityareas, or open countryside) or substantive typesof places (e.g., expanding or declining housingmarkets). Research in this topic could focus on:

• What geographic units best measure varioussubnational social, economic, and demo-graphic phenomena.

• How the Census Bureau can effectivelyincorporate such units into its surveyprograms to produce more usefulsubnational data.

Time Series Methods for Periodic Surveys.Research has shown that time series techniquescan use both past and current data to produceimproved current estimates for periodic surveys.Additional research is needed on practical prob-lems that arise in applying these techniques,such as modeling the covariance structure overtime of the sampling error, dealing with theeffects of establishing benchmarks, and handlingdata problems, such as outliers, missing data,and changes in sample design or sample size.Investigation of the amount of improvement overconventional estimates that can be realized inpractice is also needed.

Time Series Analysis. As a publisher of largenumbers of economic and demographic timeseries, the Census Bureau has a strong interestin the development and application of timeseries methodology, and provides an excellentenvironment for research in this area. Areasof interest cover a broad range of topics in uni-variate and multivariate time series methodologyand applications. Topics of particular interestinclude the following:

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• Modeling and forecasting of demographictime series.

• Analysis of spatial data (such as state orcounty data).

• Methods of dealing with outliers in timeseries modeling and seasonal adjustment.

• Various topics in seasonal adjustment,including estimating error variances forseasonally adjusted data.

• Methods for modeling, forecasting, andseasonally adjusting large numbers oftime series.

Statistical Computing and Graphics. TheCensus Bureau is conducting a research anddevelopment program to provide the mostmodern statistical computing support to itsresearch and data analysis programs. The majorsubject areas in this research are statisticaldatabases (including development of a statisticaldatabase for tabulating and analyzing data fromCensus Bureau surveys); statistical graphics(including use of color graphics); generalizedstatistical software, such as for data editing orrecord linkage, artificial intelligence; and soft-ware requirements for data analysis workstationsfor nonprogrammers. We welcome proposalsthat relate to one or more of these areas.

High-Speed Networking. The Census Bureau’snetwork is one of the more advanced networksin the world. In keeping pace with emergingtechnologies, the Census Bureau has developedan architecture for audio, voice, video, andintegrated data. Videoconferencing and internetprotocol television are key components of thisapproach that also includes implementation ofleading edge voice-over-internet protocol orinternet protocol phones. It operates on CiscoCatalyst 6500 series gigabit capable switchesand virtual LANS. It is a totally redundant net-work with no single points of failure. Asynchro-nous Transfer Mode 100 baseT and 10 baseTare all running over this network. This systemgives us a cost-effective solution with modernfunctionality, voice mail scalability, and unifiedmessaging, which allows integration with LotusNotes. The Census Bureau is implementing asmall scale pilot for telecommuting with plansto expand the opportunity to its employees.

The remote access system is protected by mul-tiple firewalls and is one of the most secure inthe federal government. The remote accesssystem was converted from a Windows NT 4domain-based authentication for remote accessto RADIUS-based authentication using netwaredirectory services. Storage has always been acritical element of any information technologyorganization, but now with the requirement toprovide fast access and retrieval of data atanytime, it is imperative to have a well thought-out solution. The storage area network is beingbuilt to eventually handle up to thirty terabytesof data at any given time, day or night, which isbeyond the capacity of many storage systems.Topics of particular research interest include thefollowing:

• Voice-over-internet protocol expansionof internet protocol phones throughoutthe Census Bureau’s area network.

• The integration of the remark voice mailsystem with Lotus Notes.

• Migration from NT4 to Windows 2000.

• Expansion of videoconferencing and internetprotocol television video capability andstorage of a minimum of three terabytesof video on the storage area network.

• A phased approach to manage Unix withe-directory for password synchronization.

Administrative Information

Conditions of Appointment and Benefits

Research Fellows and Census Bureau Scholarswill conduct their research at the Census Bureauin Suitland, Maryland, a suburb of Washington,DC. While participating in the program, they areto follow normal Census Bureau policies andpractices. The researchers are reimbursed by theASA and are on a guest worker arrangement withthe Census Bureau, or they are paid under theIntergovernmental Personnel Act (IPA).

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The stipends received by researchers in thisprogram are commensurate with their qualifica-tions and experience. Fringe benefits and travelallowances are negotiable. Usually, the CensusBureau can negotiate retention of fringe benefitswith the permanent employer.

The duration of the fellowship appointment isflexible; the usual term is 6 months to 1 year.Extensions to appointments, appointments splitinto two separate terms, and part-time fellow-ships are also possible.

Census Bureau computing resources available tothe researchers include Unix servers and work-stations, DEC minicomputers, and various per-sonal computers. Computer networks alsoprovide internal electronic mail, as well as accessto the Internet through our isolated server work-station. Other support provided to researchersincludes technical and secretarial support, libraryfacilities, a travel allowance, and interaction withthe Census Bureau’s professional staff. Fundsare also available to accommodate specializedneeds for computer software and hardware.The researchers who work with Census Bureaucomputing equipment are subject to a routinesecurity clearance.

Application Procedure

The following information is required of allfellowship applicants:

1. A curriculum vitae.

2. The names and addresses of threereferences who may be contacted.

3. Three copies of a detailed researchproposal to include the following:

a. Short descriptive title for the project.

b. If the applicant is applying to any of theother fellowship programs in additionto the Census Bureau (i.e., BLS or NCES),please indicate the agency.

c. Abstract of one-half page or less thatsummarizes the project.

d. Proposed term (approximate dates).

e. Background information on researchtopic with references.

f. Statement of relevant work alreadyaccomplished by the researcher.

g. Proposed research plan with sufficientdetail for evaluation of expected results.

h. Significance of expected results.

i. Advantages of conducting the researchat the Census Bureau.

j. Requirements for research supportand work facilities.

k. Budget required for appointmentincluding:

- salary costs for term of appointment,

- benefits,

- research assistance costs,

- hardware costs, and

- travel costs.

Note: The following are not eligible for thesefellowships: U.S. federal government employees,members of Review Boards of ASA-sponsoredfellowship programs, and members of the Boardof Directors of ASA.

Applications for the ASA/NSF/Census BureauResearch Fellow Program should be sent to:

Ms. Carolyn Kesner ASA/NSF/Census Bureau Research Fellowship Program American Statistical Association 1429 Duke Street Alexandria, VA 22314-3415 E-mail: carolyn@amstat.org

The application deadline is December 10.Final decisions will be made by March.