Research on Expert Systems

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ITTIHAD UNIVERSITY, COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS

Student Name: Zubaidah Abdul Rehman Al DinStudent ID: 20042080

Expert System Introduction

It is an intelligent computer program that uses no!ledge and in"erence procedures to sol#e problems that are di""icult

enough to re$uire signi"icant human e%pertise "or their solution&' ()eigenbaum *+82,

-he area o" e%pert s.stems is a #er. success"ul appro%imate solution to the classic a problem o" programming

intelligence& -hus/ an e%pert s.stem emulatesthe decisionmaing abilit. o" a human e%pert&

A decisionmaing and1or problemsol#ing pacage o" computer hard!are and so"t!are that can reach a le#el o"

per"ormance comparable to (or e#en e%ceeding that o",/ a human e%pert in some specialied and usuall. narro! problem

area&

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Expert systems versus problem-solvi!"

-he principal distinction bet!een e%pert s.stems and traditional problem sol#ing programs is the !a. in !hich the

problem related e%pertise is coded& In traditional applications/ problem e%pertise is encoded in both program and data

structures& In the e%pert s.stem approach all o" the problem related e%pertise is encoded in data structures onl.C none is

in programs& Se#eral bene"its immediatel. "ollo! "rom this organiation&

An e%ample ma. help contrast the traditional problem sol#ing program !ith the e%pert s.stem approach& -he e%ample is

the problem o" ta% ad#ice& In the traditional approach data structures describe the ta%pa.er and ta% tables/ and a program

in !hich there are statements representing an e%pert ta% consultants no!ledge/ such as statements !hich relate

in"ormation about the ta%pa.er to ta% table choices& It is this representation o" the ta% e%perts no!ledge that is di""icult "or

the ta% e%pert to understand or modi".&

In the e%pert s.stem approach/ the in"ormation about ta%pa.ers and ta% computations is again "ound in data structures/

but no! the no!ledge describing the relationships bet!een them is encoded in data structures as !ell& -he programs o"

an e%pert s.stem are independent o" the problem domain (ta%es, and ser#e to process the data structures !ithout regard

to the nature o" the problem area the. describe& )or e%ample/ there are programs to ac$uire the described data #alues

through user interaction/ programs to represent and process special organiations o" description/ and programs to

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process the declarations that represent semantic relationships !ithin the problem domain and an algorithm to control the

processing se$uence and "ocus&

-he general architecture o" an e%pert s.stem in#ol#es t!o principal components: a problem dependent set o" datadeclarations called the no!ledge base or rule base/ and a problem independent (although highl. data structure

dependent, program !hich is called the in"erence engine&

I#ivi#u$ls ivolve# %it& expert systems"

-here are generall. three indi#iduals ha#ing an interaction !ith e%pert s.stems& 5rimar. among these is the enduserC the

indi#idual !ho uses the s.stem "or its problem sol#ing assistance& In the building and maintenance o" the s.stem there

are t!o other roles: the problem domain e%pert !ho builds and supplies the no!ledge base pro#iding the domain

e%pertise/ and a no!ledge engineer !ho assists the e%perts in determining the representation o" their no!ledge/ enters

this no!ledge into an e%planation module and !ho de"ines the in"erence techni$ue re$uired to obtain use"ul problemsol#ing acti#it.& @suall./ the no!ledge engineer !ill represent the problem sol#ing acti#it. in the "orm o" rules !hich is

re"erred to as a rulebased e%pert s.stem& hen these rules are created "rom the domain e%pertise/ the no!ledge base

stores the rules o" the e%pert s.stem&

T&e e# user"

-he enduser usuall. sees an e%pert s.stem through an interacti#e dialog/ an e%ample o" !hich "ollo!s:

& Do .ou no! to !hich restaurant .ou !ant to goE

A& No

& Is there an. ind o" "ood .ou !ould particularl. lieE

A& No

& Do .ou lie spic. "oodE

A& No

& Do .ou usuall. drin !ine !ith mealsE

A& 6es

& hen .ou drin !ine/ is it )rench !ineE

A& 6es

It is #er. di""icult to implement a general e%planation s.stem (ans!ering $uestions lie h. and ;o!, in traditiona

s.stems& -he response o" the e%pert s.stem to the $uestion ;6 is an e%posure o" the underl.ing no!ledge structure& I

is a ruleC a set o" antecedent conditions !hich/ i" true/ allo! the assertion o" a conse$uent& -he rule re"erences #alues/

and tests them against #arious constraints or asserts constraints onto them& -his/ in "act/ is a signi"icant part o" the

no!ledge structure& -here are #alues/ !hich ma. be associated !ith some organiing entit.& )or e%ample/ the indi#idua

diner is an entit. !ith #arious attributes (#alues, including !hether the. drin !ine and the ind o" !ine& -here are also



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rules/ !hich associate the currentl. no!n #alues o" some attributes !ith assertions that can be made about other

attributes& It is the orderl. processing o" these rules that dictates the dialog itsel"&

Application Bac!round

3%pert s.stems are designed and created to "acilitate tass in the "ields o" accounting/ medicine/ process control/ "inancia

ser#ice/ production/ human resources etc& Indeed/ the "oundation o" a success"ul e%pert s.stem depends on a series o"

technical procedures and de#elopment that ma. be designed b. certain technicians and related e%perts& hen a

corporation begins to de#elop and implement an e%pert s.stem proFect/ it !ill use sel" sourcing/ in sourcing and1or

outsourcing techni$ues&

hile e%pert s.stems ha#e distinguished themsel#es in AI research in "inding practical application/ their application has

been limited& 3%pert s.stems are notoriousl. narro! in their domain o" no!ledgeGas an amusing e%ample/ a researcher

used the Hsin diseaseH e%pert s.stem to diagnose his rust bucet car as liel. to ha#e de#eloped measlesGand the

s.stems !ere thus prone to maing errors that humans !ould easil. spot&

Additionall./ once some o" the m.sti$ue had !orn o""/ most programmers realied that simple e%pert s.stems !ere

essentiall. Fust slightl. more elaborate #ersions o" the decision logic the. had alread. been using& -here"ore/ some o" the

techni$ues o" e%pert s.stems can no! be "ound in most comple% programs !ithout an. "uss about them&

An e%ample and a good demonstration o" the limitations o"/ an e%pert s.stem used b. man. people is the 7icroso"t

indo!s operating s.stem troubleshooting so"t!are located in the HhelpH section in the tasbar menu& >btaining e%pert 1

technical operating s.stem support is o"ten di""icult "or indi#iduals not closel. in#ol#ed !ith the de#elopment o" the

operating s.stem& 7icroso"t has designed their e%pert s.stem to pro#ide solutions/ ad#ice/ and suggestions to common

errors encountered throughout using the operating s.stems&

Another *+0s and *+80s application o" e%pert s.stems G !hich !e toda. !ould simpl. call AI G !as in computer

games& )or e%ample/ the computer baseball games 3arl ea#er ?aseball and -on.


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"urpose o# Expert System

3%pertise is trans"erred "rom the e%pert to the computer/ users can call on the computer "or speci"ic ad#ice/ the computer

maes in"erences and arri#es at a speci"ic conclusion/ and the computer ad#ises the no e%perts (i&e& users, and e%plains/

i" necessar./ the logic behind the ad#ice:

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3%pert s.stems are most #aluable to organiations that ha#e a highle#el o" no!ho! e%perience and e%pertise that

cannot be easil. trans"erred to other members& -he. are designed to carr. the intelligence and in"ormation "ound in the

intellect o" e%perts and pro#ide this no!ledge to other members o" the organiation "or problemsol#ing purposes&

-.picall./ the problems to be sol#ed are o" the sort that !ould normall. be tacled b. a medical or other pro"essional& Real

e%perts in the problem domain (!hich !ill t.picall. be #er. narro!/ "or instance Hdiagnosing sin in human teenagersH, are

ased to pro#ide Hrules o" thumbH on ho! the. e#aluate the problems/ either e%plicitl. !ith the aid o" e%perienced s.stems

de#elopers/ or sometimes implicitl./ b. getting such e%perts to e#aluate test cases and using computer programs to

e%amine the test data and (in a strictl. limited manner, deri#e rules "rom that& =enerall. e%pert s.stems are used "or

problems "or !hich there is no single HcorrectH solution !hich can be encoded in a con#entional algorithm G one !ould

not !rite an e%pert s.stem to "ind shortest paths through graphs/ or sort data/ as there are simpl. easier !a.s to do these

tass& Simple s.stems use simple true1"alse logic to e#aluate data/ but more sophisticated s.stems are capable o"

per"orming at least some e#aluation taing into account real!orld uncertainties/ using such methods as "u. logic& Such

sophistication is di""icult to de#elop and still highl. imper"ect& >ne important "eature o" e%pert s.stems is the !a. the.

(usuall., separate domain speci"ic no!ledge "rom more general purpose reasoning and representation techni$ues& -he

general purpose bit (in the dotted bo% in the "igure, is re"erred to as an e%pert s.stem shell& As !e see in the "igure/ the

shell !ill pro#ide the in"erence engine (and no!ledge representation scheme,/ a user inter"ace/ an e%planation s.stem

and sometimes a no!ledge base editor& =i#en a ne! ind o" problem to sol#e (sa./ car design,/ !e can usuall. "ind a

shell that pro#ides the right sort o" support "or that problem/ so all !e need to do is pro#ide the e%pert no!ledge& -here

are numerous commercial e%pert s.stem shells/ each one appropriate "or a slightl. di""erent range o" problems& (3%pert



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s.stems !or in industr. includes both !riting e%pert s.stem shells and !riting e%pert s.stems using shells&, @sing shells

to !rite e%pert s.stems generall. greatl. reduces the cost and time o" de#elopment (compared !ith !riting the e%pert

s.stem "rom scratch,&

Importance o# Expert System

H>ne maFor insight gained "rom

earl. !or in problem sol#ing !as

the importance o" domainspeci"ic

no!ledge& A doctor/ "or e%ampleis not e""ecti#e at diagnosing illness

solel. because she possesses

some innate general problem

sol#ing sillC she is e""ecti#e

because she no!s a lot abou

medicine& Similarl./ a geologist is

e""ecti#e at disco#ering mineral deposits because he is able to appl. a good deal o" theoretical and empirical no!ledge

about geolog. to the problem at hand&

3%pert no!ledge is a combination o" a theoretical understanding o" the problem and a collection o" heuristic problem

sol#ing rules that e%perience has sho!n to be e""ecti#e in the domain& 3%pert s.stems are constructed b. obtaining this

no!ledge "rom a human e%pert and coding it into a "orm that a computer ma. appl. to similar problems& -his reliance on

the no!ledge o" a human domain e%pert "or the s.stems problem sol#ing strategies is a maFor "eature o" e%pert

s.stems&H

-he importance o" e%pert s.stems are:

7anagerial decision maing becomes more comple%

Increasing "oreign and domestic competition

9hanging en#ironment1go#ernment policies

orld shrining' and time compressed'

-echnolog. ad#ancement

A model in an 3%pert online is idealiation o" real situation !hich permits to e%periment on a scale !hile obtaining

reasonable #alid results as the essence o":

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hati"

Simulation

Ad hoc anal.sis

7onitoring o" business operations

In"ormation access and $uer.

It !ill t.picall. in#ol#e:

*, Database retrie#al and a report!riting "acilit.

2, A relational database

J, Spreadsheet pacages

4, -ablehandling pacages

K, >ther data process acti#ities

a& perations

b& Arithmetic >perations

c& 9onditional 3%pressions

L, =raphical and picture operations

Another ad#antage o" e%pert s.stems o#er traditional methods o" programming is that the. allo! the use o" con"idences

hen a human reasons he does not al!a.s conclude things !ith *00M con"idence& ;e might sa./ HI" )rit is green/ then

he is probabl. a "rogH (a"ter all/ he might be a chameleon,& -his t.pe o" reasoning can be imitated b. using numeric #alues

called con"idences&

)or e%ample/ i" it is no!n that )rit is green/ it might be concluded !ith 0&8K con"idences that he is a "rogC or/ i" it is no!n

that he is a "rog/ it might be concluded !ith 0&+K 9on"idence that he hops& -hese numbers are similar in nature to

probabilities/ but the. are not the same& -he. are meant to imitate the con"idences humans use in reasoning rather than

to "ollo! the mathematical de"initions used in calculating probabilities&

-he "ollo!ing general points about e%pert s.stems and their architecture ha#e been illustrated:

*& -he se$uence o" steps taen to reach a conclusion is d.namicall. s.nthesied !ith each ne! case& It is not e%plicitl.

programmed !hen the s.stem is built&

2& 3%pert s.stems can process multiple #alues "or an. problem parameter& -his permits more than one line o" reasoning to

be pursued and the results o" incomplete (not "ull. determined, reasoning to be presented&

J& 5roblem sol#ing is accomplished b. appl.ing speci"ic no!ledge rather than speci"ic techni$ue&

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-his is a e. idea in e%pert s.stems technolog.& It re"lects the belie" that human e%perts do not process their no!ledge

di""erentl. "rom others/ but the. do possess di""erent no!ledge& ith this philosoph./ !hen one "inds that their e%pert

s.stem does not produce the desired results/ !or begins to e%pand the no!ledge base/ not to reprogram theprocedures& -he user inter"ace and the procedure inter"ace are t!o important "unctions in the in"ormation collection

process&

Details

In terms o" 3%pert S.stems the business "unctionalareas ha#e been

and are continuing to be built "or applications as:

)inance

Accounting

7areting

9ontracting

9onstruction 7anagement

Strategic 7anagement

3%pert s.stems e%ercise in"ormation technolog. to ac$uire and utilie human e%pertise& It can be bee'i(i$l "o

organiations that ha#e clear obFecti#es/ rules and procedures& 3%pert s.stems can:

5ro#ide consistent ans!ers "or repetiti#e decisions/ processes and tass

;old and maintain signi"icant le#els o" in"ormation

Reduce emplo.ee training costs

9entralie the decision maing process

9reate e""iciencies and reduce time needed to sol#e problems

9ombine multiple human e%pert intelligences

Reduce the amount o" human errors

=i#e strategic and comparati#e ad#antages creating entr. barriers to competitors

Re#ie! transactions that human e%perts ma. o#erloo

Although signi"icantl. ad#antageous to man. entities/ limit$tioso" e%pert s.stems ma. arise through:

-he lac o" human common sense needed in some decision maings

-he creati#e responses human e%perts can respond to in unusual circumstances

Domain e%perts not al!a.s being able to e%plain their logic and reasoning

-he challenges o" automating comple% processes

-he lac o" "le%ibilit. and abilit. to adapt to changing en#ironments

Not being able to recognie !hen no ans!er is a#ailable

5rominent 3%pert S.stems:

)amous Application *, Dendral anal.se mass spectra

)amous Application 2, Dipmeter Ad#isor anal.sis o" data gathered during oil e%ploration

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)amous Application J, 7.cin diagnose in"ectious blood diseases and recommend antibiotics (b. Stan"ord @ni#ersit.,

)amous Application 4, 9AD@93@S (e%pert s.stem, bloodborne in"ectious bacteria

)amous Application K, R* (e%pert s.stem,19on order processing

)amous Application L, 5rolog programming language

)amous Application , 9


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>thers done automaticall.:

a& =enerate a command "ile&

b& Acti#ate the DSS in such a !a. that it e%ecutes the command "ile&c& 9apture the output produced b. DSS a"ter the command "ile has been run&

d& Determine !hether it should generate and run additional command "iles based on the output&

?ene"its:

3as. to learn the built language and combines numerical capabilities !ith s.mbolic reasoning&

Ad#antage o" simulation tools "or user pro#ided b. DSS&

Decision Support !ith 3%pert S.stems Diagram Sample:

ES 3) 3%pert S.stems and Decision Support S.stems in Auditing/ @ni#ersit. o" Southern 9ali"ornia/ Los Angeles

Its 5er"ormance maFor tass are:

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(i, 3lectronic data processing auditing&

(ii, 3%ternal auditing&

(iii, =o#ernmental auditing&(i#, Internal auditing&

?ene"its:

Audit planning and tracing&

Automatic sample selection "rom main"rame data&

Identi"ies patterns in sample data&

>nline $uestionnaire "or polic. testing and speci"ic regulation&

5ro#ides e%planations o" $uestions&

Records internal auditor comments during the audit&

Displa.s polic. documents online&

=enerates !or papers&

5rints branch e%ception reports&

ES 4) An 3%pert S.stem "or )inancial Anal.sis/ @ni#ersit. o" North 9arolina/ Chapel Hill

Its 5er"ormance tass are:

(i, -o identi". and e%plain "inancial P operational problems be"ore the. become critical&

(ii, -o e%amine reports "or accounting errors b. comparison o" budgets/ b. use o" ratio anal.sis/ and b.

testing the reasonableness o" selected "inancial data #isQ#is related operational data&(iii, -o re#ie! "inancial data !ith an e.e to disco#ering the potential "or management or emplo.ee "raud o

the"t&

(i#, -o prepare "orecasts o" sales/ e%penses/ and other account categories that are necessar. "or e""ecti#e

budgeting and "or management decision maing&

%ata Analysis Insights %ecision

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>ther e%amples o" 3%pert S.stems:

I) -he )inancial Statement Anal.er/ Arthur Andersen and 9o&/ Chicago

II) -he De#elopment o" an 3%pert S.stem that estimates casualt. insurance loss reser#es/ =eorge 7ason @ni#ersit./ Faira!

III) 3%pert S.stems in ;ealth Insurance/ ?lue 9ross/ Western "enns#l$ania

I%) 3%pert S.stems in 7areting and Sales/ Applied 3%pert S.stems (A53, Inc& and Ad#anced S.stems Inc&/ Waltha&

%) An 3%pert S.stem @S 3nerg. In"ormation Administration "or ualit. Assurance and Statistical Sur#e. Support

%I) 3%pert S.stems "or 9risis 7anagement: -he ;it 5roFect/ @ni#ersit. o" North -e%as/ Denton

%II)An 3%pert S.stem De#elopment 7ethodolog. as Applied to 5roFect 7anagement/ @ni#ersit. o" 7iami' Coral (ales

$onclusion

-he collection o" computer so"t!are and hard!are components that ha#e been properl. selected/ designed/ de#eloped/

combined and con"igured in order to deli#er a ser#ice that emulates in an e""ecti#e and reliable manner the reasoning

process o" domain e%perts o#er the eb&'

' A standard gi#es credibilit. to our industr.

' e deal !ith deep linguistic technolog.'/ so !e canOt de#elop man. languages/ a standard can help us to

sell1bu.' products to1"rom other countriesO competitors

-he technologies and methods to de#elop and deplo. decision support s.stems in planning and management ha#e

matured considerabl. o#er the past "our .ears& ;o!e#er/ certain aspects o" this "ield are changing rapidl. e#en no!& )or

e%ample/ the possibilit. o" $uicl. accessing and processing large/ spatiall. distributed databases o#er highspeed/ readil.

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accessible net!ors o""ers a tremendous impro#ement in the !a. that these s.stems are de#eloped and the e""ecti#eness

!ith !hich the. are used&

-he gro!ing acceptance o" graphical/ user "riendl. operating s.stems and so"t!are has opened the door "or moredecision maers to tae an acti#e role in the use o" these s.stems& -his trend should continue and !ill liel. bring more

"ocus on the "ormulation o" support s.stems !hich are responsi#e to the needs o" the decision maers rather than the

modelers and de#elopers&

-he architecture o" the ne%t generation o" e%pert s.stems pro#ides "or "ull integration o" e%pert s.stem !ith e%ternal

s.stems and data bases& Although all researchers are addressing most o" the technological limitations o" earl. e%pert

s.stems/ companies are still !aiting "or so"t!are standards and de#elopment methodologies&

Re#erences: internet lins/ presentations online/ boos and other use"ul boos

Internet nline 5resentations:

http:11!!!&cs&.or&ac&u1hci1ADIS3S1documents1Doas&ppt

!!!&parsol&go#&u1documents1es!slides218&M203%pertM20S.stemM20andM20)astM20-rac&ppt

http:11!!!&acct&tamu&edu1smith1boos1aisboo1aisch0K&ppt

http:11godel&stan"ord&[email protected]&ppt

http:11!!!&cee&h!&ac&u1lachlan1dbislectures1lectures1e%pert&ppt

http:11!!!&ait&unl&edu1siau1*++1mgmt4K1lecture*&ppt

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?oos:

ames Igniio/ Introduction to 3%pert S.stems (*++*,/ IS?N 00+0+8KK

oseph 9& =iarratano/ =ar. Rile. 3%pert S.stems/ 5rinciples and 5rogramming (200K,/ IS?N 0KJ4J844*

5eter acson Introduction to 3%pert S.stems (*++8,/ IS?N 020*8L8L8

Dimitris N& 9hora"as/ Appl.ing 3%pert S.stems in ?usiness (*+8,/ IS?N 000*0880J

a.

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Research on Expert Systems