RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT FIXED SERVICES IN THE MIDDLE … · 2020-04-05 · Fixed: broadband market penetration will grow in most countries driven by ... Fixed Internet traffic per

Fixed services in the Middle East and North Africa: trends and forecasts 2017–2022 based on 2Q 2017 data

© Analysys Mason Limited 2018

RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT

analysysmason.com

FIXED SERVICES IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA:

TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2017–2022 BASED ON 2Q 2017 DATA

KARIM YAICI and ALEX BOISOT



WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT

2

This report provides commentary and trend analysis for fixed

services to support our 5-year forecast for the Middle East and

North Africa (MENA). It includes worldwide context and

commentary on six key countries: Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi

Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Our forecasts are based on our robust set of historical data and

draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool that applies a

rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources,

standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

For the complete data set for the region, please see:

www.analysysmason.com/DataHub.

About this report

▪ Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at fixed operators in

the Middle East and North Africa.

▪ Regulatory bodies in the Middle East and North Africa.

▪ Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the

region, or advise others that do so.

▪ Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the

Middle East and North Africa fixed telecoms market.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE KEY METRICS

Regions modelled:

▪ Midde East and North Africa

(MENA)

Countries analysed in this report:

▪ Iran

▪ Kuwait

▪ Oman

▪ Qatar

▪ Saudi Arabia

▪ United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Fixed connections

▪ Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up

▪ Narrowband voice, VoBB

▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed revenue

▪ Service,1 retail

▪ Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up,

BNS

▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed voice traffic

▪ Outgoing minutes, MoU

1 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

http://www.analysysmason.com/DataHub


© Analysys Mason Limited 2018 3

5. Executive summary

6. The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD72.1 billion in 2022,

amidst increased competition and challenging operating conditions

7. Worldwide trends

8. Worldwide: fixed revenue growth will stagnate during the forecast period

due to market saturation

9. Regional trends

10. The total revenue increase will continue, but growth will slow over the

forecast period

11. Fixed: broadband market penetration will grow in most countries driven by

demand and new infrastructure investments

12. Fixed: broadband penetration will grow in all modelled countries, supported

by competition and national broadband plans

13. Fixed: speed upgrades and increased penetration of fibre services will help

to maintain broadband a high average revenue per line

14. Fixed: the broadband market will grow steadily, while voice revenue will

decline due to reduced usage and mobile competition

15. Country-level trends

16. Iran: investment in fixed broadband infrastructure will underpin revenue

growth

17. Kuwait: the fixed market is in need of liberalisation to support infrastructure

investment and improve broadband penetration

18. Oman: fibre connections will grow strongly during the forecast period

thanks to an ambitious national broadband plan

19. Qatar: bundled offerings will help to drive further demand for

fixed voice and broadband services

20. Saudi Arabia: the number of fixed voice and broadband connections will

increase during the forecast period

21. UAE: fixed broadband connections will grow at a stable pace, underpinned

by investment in infrastructure

22. About the author and Analysys Mason

23. About the author

24. About Analysys Mason

25. Research from Analysys Mason

26. Consulting from Analysys Mason

Contents



Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue,

Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 2: Fixed service revenue by location, Middle East and North Africa and

worldwide, 2012–2022

Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed

broadband ASPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by fixed service type, total service revenue

and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2022

Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa,

2016–2022

Figure 6: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa

(million), 2012–2022

Figure 7: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD

billion), 2012–2022

Figure 8: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband

connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 9: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and

North Africa (MB per month), 2012–2022

Figure 10a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East

and North Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 10b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East

and North Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 11a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North

Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 11b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North

Africa, 2012–2022

Figure 12: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Iran (IRR thousand per

month), 2012–2022

Figure 13: Broadband connections by technology, Iran (million), 2012–2022

Figure 14: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per

month), 2012–2022

Figure 15: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (million), 2012–2022

Figure 16: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per

month), 2012–2022

Figure 17: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (million), 2012–2022

Figure 18: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month),

2012–2022

Figure 19: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (million), 2012–2022

Figure 20: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per

month), 2012–2022

Figure 21: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2012–

2022

Figure 22: Fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month),

2012–2022

Figure 23: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2012–2022

List of figures



Figure 2: Fixed service revenue by location, Middle East and North Africa and worldwide,

2012–2022

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Worldwide growth in fixed service revenue will be marginal

between 2016 and 2022, at a CAGR of 0.1%.

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), North America (NA) and

developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) will be the only regions with

declining fixed service revenue. In terms of CAGR, Sub-Saharan

Africa (SSA) will be the fastest growing region, though this is

because fixed service revenue in the region is currently negligible.

The second-fastest growing region will be MENA. Western Europe

(WE) will be the only region where the CAGR between 2016 and

2022 will be higher than it was between 2012 and 2016. This

region is emerging from a period of strong competition as

operators readjust their pricing strategies. Both MENA and

emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP) have gone through a period of rapid

growth over the past few years, and as a result, their growth rates

will slow down the most during the forecast period.

MENA’s share of worldwide fixed revenue will increase slightly

between 2016 and 2022, from 3.6% to 4.1%.

Broadband penetration in MENA reached 30.8% in 2016, which

indicates that the market retains plenty of scope for expansion. By

2022, we expect household penetration to reach 40.0%. We

project robust growth in both connections and revenue over the

forecast period, albeit lower than during 2012—2016 as high

levels of mobile penetration and increasing 4G coverage in the

region continue to reduce consumers’ dependence on fixed

services.

Worldwide: fixed revenue growth will stagnate during the

forecast period due to market saturation

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Middle East and North AfricaRest of the world

Source: Analysys Mason



Connection typeConnections (million) CAGR

2016 2022 2012–2016 2016–2022

Fixed voice 60.7 65.2 –1.2% 1.2%

Fixed broadband 28.1 40.7 15.5% 6.4%

IPTV 1.7 4.1 18.4% 15.6%

Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2016–2022

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1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.2 Includes retail and wholesale revenue.

Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by fixed service type, total service revenue and growth rates,


The total revenue increase will continue, but growth will slow over the

forecast period

Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU,


Retail revenue: Fixed voice and narrowband

Fixed broadband

Business network services

Fixed voice ASPU

Fixed broadband ASPU

Service typeRevenue (USD billion) CAGR

2016 2022 2012–2016 2016–2022

Fixed voice and narrowband1 6.4 5.1 -1.2% -3.3%

Fixed broadband 8.7 11.5 9.3% 4.7%

Business network services 4.4 5.6 12.5% 4.0%

Total retail fixed revenue 19.4 22.2 5.9% 2.3%

Total service fixed revenue2 20.8 23.7 5.9% 2.2%

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Source: Analysys Mason



CONTENTSCONTENTS

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

WORLDWIDE TRENDS

REGIONAL TRENDS

COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS

IRAN

KUWAIT

OMAN

QATAR

SAUDI ARABIA

UAE

ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON



About the authors

Alex Boisot (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market

Matrix and European Country Reports research programmes. Alex holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of East

Anglia. He conducted research on the impact of telecommunications technologies on modern societies during his studies, writing his

dissertation on e-government and e-democracy.

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason’s The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of

specialisation include operators’ digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to

joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications.

Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information

Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human–computer interaction from the University of Surrey.



Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

24

CONSULTING

▪ We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms

industry:

communications and digital service providers, vendors,

financial and strategic investors, private equity and

infrastructure funds, governments, regulators,

broadcasters, and service and content providers

▪ Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges

facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.

▪ We are future-focused and help clients understand the

challenges and opportunities that new technology brings.

RESEARCH

▪ Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the

different services accessed by consumers and enterprises.

▪ We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and

technology delivering those services.

▪ Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct

access to analysts.

Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio



Research from Analysys Mason



Consulting from Analysys Mason



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© Analysys Mason Limited 2018. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic,

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Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any

client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only.

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MARCH 2018

Documents

RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT FIXED SERVICES IN THE MIDDLE … · 2020-04-05 · Fixed: broadband market penetration will grow in most countries driven by ... Fixed Internet traffic per