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8/14/2019 Research Approach to Investment_1
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R e s e a r c h A p p r o a
c h t o i n v
e s t m e n t i n
c o m m o d i t y m a r k e t s
S . V e n k a t a r a g h a v a n
V i c e P r e s i d e n t – R e s e a r c h
w w w . a l
t o s t r a d e . c o m
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D i s c l a i m e r
! T h e v i e w s e x p r e s s e d i n t h i s p
r e s e n t a t i o n a r e p e r s o n a l . T h e y a r e
n o t a
s o l i c i t a t i o n t
o b u y o r s e l l i n s t r u m e n t s .
! A l t o s A d v i s o r y S e r v i c e s L t d . , a l t o s t r a d e . c o m ,
T e n F o r d R i c h V
e n t u r e s
L t d . , G i b r a l t
a r , S p a i n – t h e c o
m p a n i e s t h a t I r e
p r e s e n t a r e n o t
r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a n y d e s i r e d o r u n d e s i r e d o u t c o
m e o f t h i s p r e s e n
t a t i o n .
! I n v e s t m e n t i n d e r i v a t i v e s b e a r s c o n s i d e r a b l e r i s k - r e w a r d t r a d e o
f f s .
! T h e r e i s a r i s k o f l o s s w h e n t r a d i n g i n d e r i v a t i v e s .
8/14/2019 Research Approach to Investment_1
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D i s c l o s u r e
I n v e s t m e n t s :
C o m m o d i t i e s &
D e r i v a t i v e s .
P r o p r i e t a r y P o
s i t i o n s
N o
F a m i l y a n d F r i e n d s
Y e s
C l i e n t s
Y e s
O t h e r C o n f l i c t s
M a y b e
8/14/2019 Research Approach to Investment_1
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D e d i c a t e d t o t h e G
r e a t e s t C a r t o o n i s t o f
a l l t i m e s
R . K . L a k s
h m a n
8/14/2019 Research Approach to Investment_1
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r i s p l a y e d t h e M
A T A D O R h e r e
I t r y t o d r a w a n a n a l o g
y f r o m t h a t s p o r t
t o t h e r e c e n t m o v e s i n f i n a n c i a l m
a r k e t s .
W e a
r e i n a s e c u l a r
b u l l m a r k e t f o r
C o m m o d i t i e s s
i l v e r , g o l d , a n d
m a n y o t h e r m e t a l s h e r e i s a n e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e
r e c e n t s e l l o f f s
,
I n S p
a i n t h e r e i s a g a m e w i t h t h e b u
l l " M A T A D O R "
a n a v e r a g e g u y s w h o t r i e s t o r i d e
t h e b u l l t y p i c a l l y l a s t o n l y
a b
o u t 5 s e c o n d s b e f o r e g e t t i n g b
u c k e d o f f .
T
h a t ' s t h e j o b o f
a b u l l , t o b u c k o
f f t h o s e w h o a t
t e m p t t o r i d e i t .
B u l l s a l s o g o r e p e o p l e w i t h t h e i r
h o r n s , a n d u s e
t h e i r h o r n s t o
t h r o w t h o s e b u l l r i d e r s i n t o t h e a i r .
T h e
s p i k e y o u s e e o n t h e g o l d a n d
s i l v e r p r i c e c h a
r t s t h a t
l o o k s i s a b u l l ' s h
o r n . I t j u s t g o r e d a n d k i l l e d a l l t h o s e w h o t r i e
d
t o
u s e b o r r o w e d m o n e y t o t r y t o t a k e a d v a n t a g e
o f t h e b u l l .
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I
S t h e r e a n a s s e t b u b b l e ?
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E q u i t y m
a r k e t s a
t 9 % V o
l a t i l i t y ?
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h o u s i n g a n d r e a l e s t a t e a s s e t m a r k e t
i s i t o v e r v a l u e d ?
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o m m o d i t y
M a r k e t s - R o l e o f i n
v e s t o r
b u y i n g o u t w
e i g h e d b y
f u n d a m e
n t a l s … …
I n v e s t o r b u y i n g i s o n e f a c t o
r t h a t h a s a d d e d u p s i d e t o
c o m m o d i t y m a r k e t s .
A s s e t d i v e r s i f i c a t i o n a s a c o n c e p t a m u s t ‘ j u s t b e i n g
r e i n f o r c e d ’
I n s p i t e o f t h e
R e c e n t F a l l s ,
T h e C o m m o d i t y I n d i c e s l i k
e R o g e r
I n d e x a n o
u t p e r f o r m e r y
e a r t o d a t e .
H o w e v e r o f g
r e a t e r s i g n i f i c
a n c e a r e t h e f u n d a m e n t a l f a c t o r s
t h a t w i l l s u p p o r t h i g h e r c o m m o d i t i e s p
r i c e s o v e r t h e
r e s t o f
t h i s d e c a d e :
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E l e c t r i c i t y
M e a t s
& L i v e S t o c k s
F i b e
r s : c o t t o n & w o o l
G r a i n s W h e a t & C o r n
S o y b
e a n , R a p e s e e d o i l
S o f t s : C o c o a , c o f f e e , S u g a r O
r a n g e J u i c e
E n e r g y P r o d u c t s : C r u d e
O i l , G a s o l i n e , H e a t i n g O
i l
F o r e s t r y P r o d u c t s : R u b b e r , L e a d &
P a p e r P u l p
B a s e M e t a l s : A l , C u , Z n , P
b , T i n
P r e c i o u s M e t a l s : G o l d
S i l v e r P l a t i n u m P a l l a d
i u m
L O C
A L
C L
I M A T I C
G
E O
P O L I T I C A L
M
A C R O
E C O N O M I C S
M O N E T A R Y
F u n d a m e n t a l F a
c t o r s t h a t i n f
l u e n c e s c o m m
o d i t y p r i c e s .
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E x a m p l e o f M o n e t a r y F a c t o r s
- P r e c i o u s
M e t a l s P r i c
e s
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p l e o f G e o p o
l i t i c a l & M a c r o E c o n o m i c F
a c t o r s
I r a n t e n s i o n d r i v e s
m a r k e t s w h e r e a s I n d i a ' s n u c
l e a r P l a n s t o d
r i v e t h e
‘ E c o n o m y ’ b a c k ?
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E x a m p l e o f G e o p o l i t i c a l – ‘ T h e t e r r o r p r e m i u m ’
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E x a m p l e o f C l i m
a t i c F a c t o r s
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8/14/2019 Research Approach to Investment_1
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p l e o f D i s r u p t i v e D e m a n d
S h i f t – F u e l s t o B i o F u e l s
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8/14/2019 Research Approach to Investment_1
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p l e o f L o c a l F a c t o
r s - B i r d f l u a n d M
a d C o w
o n M e a t P r i c e s & s o y f e e d
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8/14/2019 Research Approach to Investment_1
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/research-approach-to-investment1 24/36 D o n ’ t
k n o w w h e t h e r t o
c a l l t h i s m o n e t a r y , m a c r o e c o n o m i c
o r g e o p o l i t i c a l o r L o c a l ! ~ ~ !
S k e p t i c s w h o s a y c o m
m o d i t i e s d e m a
n d d r i v e i n C h i n a E x a g g e r a t e d ?
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I n a n h o n e s t s u r v e y
o f ‘ n e w e n t r a n t s ’ t o
t r a d
i n g i n c o m
m o d i t y m a r k e t s
I w a n t t o m a k
e m o r e m o n e y
5 5 %
I w a n t t o d i v e r s i f y m y a s s e t s
4 0 %
I d o n ’ t w a n t t o w a t c h s a a s b h i
5 %
k a b h i b a h u
t h i a n d I p r e f
e r
t o s i t i n f r o
n t o f a t r a d i n g
s c r e e n i n t h e e v e n i n g s
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R e s e a r c h A p p r o a c h o f P a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e
c o m m o d i t y
m a r k e t s
• I n v e s t o r &
F i n a n c i e r s .
• S p e c u l a t o r s / t r a d e r s
• H e d g e r s
• A r b i t r a g e u
r s
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R e
s e a r c h A p p r o a c h o f I n v e s t o r s
•
A n I n v e s t o r h
a s c o m m i t t e d
‘ x ’ a m o u n t o f
m o n e y w i t h a
n
i n t e n t i o n o f p u l l i n g o u t ‘ x ’ +
D e l t a ‘ x ’ , h e
h a s t h e c a p a c i t y
t o h o l d s i n c e h e b e l i e v e s t h a t a n i n t r i n s i c v a l u e o f a n y
c o m m o d i t y c a n n o t b e c o m e
z e r o .
•
H e n e v e r t a k e
s u n l i m i t e d r i s k s i n t h e m a r k e t a n d a s a r u l e i s
n e v e r l e v e r a g e d a n d i s w h o l l y c o l l a t e r a l i z e d . ( m e a n i n g i n
f u t u r e s a s m a r g i n a n d r e m a i n i n g v a l u e o f a s s e t a s T - b i l l s o r
b a n k s w e e p s ) T o
t a l Y i e l d f o r I n v e
s t o r s ( f u t u r e s ) =
I n c r e a s e o r
D e c r e a s e i n v a l u e o
f h i s p o s i t i o n s i n
f u t u r e s +
C o l l a t e r a l i z e d y i e l d - c o s t o f r o l l o v e r .
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R e s e a r c h A p p r o a c h
o f T h e F i n a n c i e r
•
T h e ‘ C a s h ’ F i n a n
c i e r i n a c o n t a n g
o s i t u a t i o n
B u y s C u r r e n t / S p o t "
T a k e s d e l i v
e r y ( d e m a t a m o r e t r a n s p a r e n t o p t i o n )
S i m u l t a n e o u s l y s
e l l s f u t u r e s "
E n j
o y s t h i s c o s t o f f i n a n c i n g t h e c o n t a n g o m a r k e t .
E g . ( o n 1 4 t h J u n e 2 0 0 6 ) M C X
0 5 J
U L 2 0 0 6 S I L V E R R
s . 1 5 2 9 5 p e r K g 3 0
K g s C o n t r a c t
0 5 S
E P 2 0 0 6 S I L V E R R
s . 1 5 7 2 5 p e r K g 3 0 K g s C o n t r a c t
D i f f e r e n t i a l = R s . 4 3 0
f i n a n c i e r e a r n s = 4 3 0 *
3 0 = R s . 1 2 , 9 0 0
F i n a n c i e r s c o m m i t m e n
t = 3 0 * 1 5 2 9 5 + 5 %
3 0 * 1 6 7 2 5
T o t a l Y i e l d f o r f i n a n c i e r = 4 3 0 / 1 6 1 3 1 . 2 5
= 2 . 6 6
% o r
a n n u a l i z e d 1 5 . 9 6 % R i s k F r e e
( * ) A s s u m i n g M a r g i n t o b e 5 % o n
f u t u r e s
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R e s e a r c h A p p r o a c
h o f T h e F i n a n c i e r C o n t d
•
T h e ‘ S t o c k ’ f i n a n c i e r i n b a c k w e r d a t i o n .
S e l l s C u r r e n t / S p o t "
G i v e s d e l i
v e r y ( d e m a t a m o r e t r a n s p a r e n t o p
t i o n )
S i m u l t a n e o u s l y
B u y f u t u r e s " T
a k e s d e l i v e r y
E n j o y s t h i s c o s t o f l o a n i n g h i s s t o c k t o t h e m a r k e
t .
E g 1 4 t h J u n e U R A D M C X
2 0 J U N 2 0 0 6 U
R A D
3 1 5 1 R s .
1 8 A U G U S T U
R A D
2 8 7 5 R s .
S t o c k f i n a n c i e r e a r n s #
R s . 2 7 6 o n t h e
d i f f e r e n c e +
r i s k f r e e r a t e o n 9 5 % o f t h e m o n e y h e h a s g o t b y g i v i n g
d e l i v e r y f o r a m o n t h ( s i n c
e a b o u t 5 % w o u l d g o f o r m a r g i n o n
t h i s f u t u r e s p o s i t i o n )
F i n a n c i e r s c o m m i t m e n t = S t o c k
T o t a l Y
i e l d f o r f i n a n c i e r
= I n f i n i t e s i n c e m o n e y
c o m m i t t e d i n t o t r a n s a c t i o n i s z e r o a n d i t i s o n l y a s s t o c k .
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R e s
e a r c h A p p r o a c h o f H e d g e r s
•
H e d g i n g D e f i n e d W h e n t w o r i s k
s o f f s e t e a c h o t h e r , o n e i s s a i d t o b e a
h e d g e f o r t h e o t h e r . A h e d g e d p
o s i t i o n h a s l e s s r i s k t h a n i t s s e p a r a t e
c o m p o n e n t s .
•
A C o m m o d i t y H e d g i n g E x a m p l e A f a r m e r w h o h
a s w h e a t i n t h e g
r o u n d
r i s k s t h a t t h e p r
i c e o f w h e a t w i l l
f a l l b e f o r e t h e J u
l y h a r v e s t .
•
A b a k e r w h o m
u s t b u y f l o u r i n J
u l y r i s k s t h a t t h e
p r i c e o f w h e a t w
i l l r i s e
b e f o r e J u l y .
•
A n a t u r a l h e d g e a p p e a r s p o s s i b l e b e c a u s e t h e s e t w o r i s k s a r e
c o m p l e m e n t a r y
.
•
T h e H e d g e I f t h e b a k e r b u y s a w
h e a t f u t u r e s c o n t r a c t f r o m t h e f a r
m e r ,
b o t h w i l l r e d u c e t h e i r n e t r i s k e x
p o s u r e .
•
A l t h o u g h t h e f u
t u r e s c o n t r a c t b y
i t s e l f m a y b e v e r y r i s k y , w h e n u s
e d i n
t h e s e h e d g e s , i t
r e d u c e s o v e r a l l r i s k .
•
T h e c o n t r a c t n e
e d n o t b e d e l i v e r
e d .
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•
T h e F a r m e r ’ s H e d g e : T h e
f a r m e r h e d g e s
h e r l o n g p o s i t i o n
( w h e a t i n t h e
g r o u n d ) w i t h a s h o r t p o s i t i o n
i n w h e a t f u t u r e s .
I f w h e a t p r i c e s f a l l , t h e f a r m
e r l o s e s o n h e
r h a r v e s t b u t g a i n s o n
h e r f u t u r e s p o s i t i o n , a n d v i c e v e r s a . ( W h a t i f h a i l d e s t r o y
s h e r
c r o p ? )
•
T h e B a k e r ’ s
H e d g e T h e b a
k e r h e d g e s h i s
s h o r t p o s i t i o n
( m u s t
b u y f l o u r ) w i t h a l o n g p o s i t i o n i n w h e a t f u
t u r e s .
I f w h e a t p r i c e s r i s e , t h e b a k
e r l o s e s o n h i s
f l o u r p u r c h a s e
b u t
g a i n s o n h i s f u t u r e s p o s i t i o n , a n d v i c e v e r s a . ( W h a t i f h e
l o s e s a
c o n t r a c t t o d e l i v e r b r e a d i n
J u l y ? ) .
•
H e d g i n g S u m
m a r y : H e d g i
n g i n v o l v e s t h e e x c h a n g e o f r i s k s
b u t n o t n e c e s s a r i l y a s s e t s .
•
M a n y f u t u r e s , s w a p s , a n d o
p t i o n s c o n t r a c t s h a v e b e e n
d e v e l o p e d t o
f a c i l i t a t e h e d g
e r s
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R
e s e a r c h A p
p r o a c h o f A
r b i t r a g e u r
s
• A r b i t r a g e u
r s u s e f u n d a m
e n t a l a n d t e c h
n i c a l m o d e l s t o
e s t i m a t e r e
l a t i v e d i f f e r e n
c e s i n f u n d a m
e n t a l v a l u e s .
• T h e y t r a d e
w h e n t h e r e l a
t i o n b e t w e e n t w o ( o r m o r e )
p r i c e s
d i f f e r s f r o m t h e r e l a t i o n
p r e d i c t e d b y t h e i r m o d e l s .
• T h e e f f e c t
o f t h e i r t r a d i n
g i s t o r e m o v e
t h e s e d i f f e r e n
c e s .
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R e s
e a r c h A p p r o a c h o f T r a d e r
s
• V a
l u e - m o t i v a t e d t r a d e r s e s t i m a t e f u n d a m e n t a l v a l u e s . V a l u e - m o t i v a t e d
t r a
d e r s u s e e c o n o m
i c m o d e l s t o e s t i m a t e s e c u r i t y v a l u e s .
–
F o r e c a s t c a s h f l o
w s .
–
A n a l y z e d i s c o u n t r a t e s .
–
V a l u e - m o t i v a t e d
t r a d e r s m u s t b e v e
r y d i s c i p l i n e d a b o u t t h e i r a s s u m p t i o n s .
–
O r g a n i z a t i o n s t h a t p u r s u e v a l u e - m o
t i v a t e d s t r a t e g i e s t e n d t o b e s h a p e d l i k e
p y r a m i d s .
• N e
w s t r a d e r s e s t i m
a t e c h a n g e s i n f u
n d a m e n t a l v a l u e s .
–
N e w s t r a d e r s f o l l o w n e w s c a r e f u l l y .
–
T h e y t r a d e o n e v
e n t s t h a t t h e y e x p e
c t t o c h a n g e p r i c e s .
–
N e w s t r a d e r s m u
s t a c t q u i c k l y .
–
O r g a n i z a t i o n s t h a t p u r s u e n e w s t r a d
i n g s t r a t e g i e s t e n d
t o b e f l a t .
• T e
c h n i c a l t r a d e r s t r y t o i d e n t i f y p r i c e p a t t e r n s t h a t a r e i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h
p r i c e s t h a t r e f l e c t f u n d a m e n t a l v a l u e
s .
–
I n f o r m a t i o n a l e f f i c i e n t p r i c e s s h o u l d n o t h a v e f o r e c a s t
a b l e c h a n g e s .
–
T e c h n i c a l t r a d e r s t r y t o f o r e c a s t p r i c e s f r o m p a s t p r i c e s a n d o t h e r m a r k e t
d a t a .
–
T h e i r t r a d i n g r e m
o v e s p r e d i c t a b l e p
r i c e p a t t e r n s .
–
T e c h n i c a l t r a d e r s p r o f i t w h e n o t h e r
t r a d e r s m a k e m i s t a k e s .
–
T h e y s c a v e n g e f o r t h e t i d b i t s t h a t o t h e r t r a d e r s l e a v e o
n t h e t a b l e .
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S p e c u l a t o r s
• I n f o r m e d t r a d e r s c o m p e t e t o a c q u i r e a n d
p r o f i t f r o m e x p e n s
i v e i n f o r m a t i o n .
• I n f o r m e d t r a d e r s e n t e r a n d e x
i t .
• O n l y e f f i c i e n t i n f o
r m e d t r a d e
r s m a k e
p r o f i t s .
• P r i c e i n f o r m a t i v e n e s s d e p e n d s o n t h e c
o s t s
o f a c q u i r i n g i n f o r m
a t i o n .
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A c k
n o w l e d
g e m e n t s
o o g l e . c o m
a g l e . s l a t e
. m s n . c o m
f o r a l l t h e c a r t o o n s .
e u t e r s – R
T C f o r c o m m o d i t i e s
c t i v e 8 - T
e l e r a t e .
M y R e s e a r
c h d e p a r t m
e n t f o r t h e
i r s u p p o r t
a n d
n a l y s t s a t
a l t o s f o r t h
e i r c o n s e n
s u s e s t i m a
t e .
M A T S