Research and policy making:

Evidence-based trade policymaking

Dr Mia Mikić, Chief Trade Policy and Analysis Section

mikic@un.org

Myanmar and the Asia-Pacific region: Role of policy research in

economic and trade reforms

Yangon University of Economics, 19-21 Feb 2015

WHAT IS EVIDENCE-BASED POLICYMAKING?

An approach that helps people make well

informed decisions about policies,

programmes and projects by putting the best

available evidence at the heart of policy

development and implementation.

2

Putting the best available evidence at the heart of policy making?

Single

Survey

Expert

Practice of

Political Life Judgement Experience Resources

Lobby system ► Think-tank

► Opinion leaders

► Media

► Civil Society

Tech

nic

al

Cap

acit

y

Policy Environment

Evidence-influenced

Opinion-based

Evidence-based

Evidence-influenced

Drivers of change

• Increasing emphasis on the quantity and quality of evidence and its use (modernising and democratizing Government);

• Increasing amount of data

• Multiple uses: to underpin and inform strategy, policy, regulatory work, foresight; and to mitigate risk;

• Evidence must be reviewed and challenged;

• Future evidence needs will greatly define strategic priorities

Evidence for policy is…

• …any robust information that helps to turn a more abstract strategic priorities and other objectives into something concrete (measurable), manageable and achievable.

– evidence as data

– analytical evidence

– evidence of stakeholder opinions (beliefs)

– is ‘good science’ the same as ‘good evidence’ for policy?

Why do we need evidence and analysis?

To:

• Confirm what we think we know

• Enrich our understanding

• Explain complex issues

• Challenge received wisdom

• Scope opportunities for change

Components of robust evidence and analysis (supply side)

• Is the evidence credible?

• Can we make generalisations from it?

• Is it reliable enough for M&E or impact assessments?

• Is it objective? How do we account for bias?

• Is it rooted in an understanding of the framing assumptions?

Components of robust evidence & analysis (demand side)

• Is the evidence policy relevant?

• Is it timely? Has it been delivered fast enough to inform policy decisions?

• Is it accessible to all key stakeholders, not just researchers?

• Is the evidence cost-effective?

• Is it interdisciplinary enough to address cross-cutting issues?

Evidence-based policy making is not a sacred cow:

There are policies that:

Use good information… …and use it well…

…and use it poorly… Use poor information…

Analysis and evidence for policy

Procuring, managing

and carrying out

research to provide

new evidence

Scoping the issue,

asking the question,

deciding what sort of

evidence is needed

Interpreting & applying

new or existing evidence,

monitoring & evaluating

the policy once

implemented

Evidence and analysis needed rapidly to answer

pressing policy questions

Longer-term policy and strategy development

EBPM in practice

• Putting policy in the lead;

• Developing a clear ‘line of sight’ between policy priorities and evidence provision;

• Constructing lines of argument with stakeholders (how to keep them current?);

• Analysing in relation to the policy cycle - policy mapping tool;

• Being very clear that ‘good science’ is not the same as good evidence for policy.

EBPM in practice – ‘whys’

Constructing a line of argument against which to assess policy’s needs for evidence and analysis:

• Why is this issue important?

• Why are thing changing, for better or for

worse?

• Why does Government need to intervene?

• Why do we need a policy on this issue?

EBPM in practice: the policy mapping tool

Given the line(s) of argument, what evidence do we need to…

Understand where we are and

where we’re heading

Improve and deliver our

policy outputs

Monitoring and

evaluate policy

outcomes and

impacts

A.

Understanding

the context -

fundamental

processes and

phenomena,

baselines &

benchmarks

B. Development

of models,

methodologies

and tools

C.

Developing

and using the

evidence base

to scope the

issue and help

set targets

D.

Development &

appraisal of

options /

solutions,

including pilots

E.

Effective

implementation

with delivery

partners and

other

stakeholders

F.

Monitoring

progress

towards policy/

programme

targets

G. Policy

/

programme

evaluation

Categories of trade policy changes

• Negotiated trade policy changes:

– Interactions between: • Negotiating countries (governments)

• Government and domestic interest groups

– Open or closed process

• Non-negotiated (unilateral) trade policy changes as:

– Responses to external pressures

– Part of a strategic redesign of trade and other policies

– Effort to improve the coherence of national policies

• [Research methods and approaches depend on RQ]

“Value of research” for policy making

Type of policy change

Instrumental changes

Conceptual changes (paradigmatic shifts)

Categories of research

Research as ideas CA-USA FTA (ch 2) Capital goods protocol AR-BRA (ch 4) India approach to TF (ch 7)

Research as data NAFTA (ch2) CET of Mercosur (ch 4) MFN lib (ch 6)

Research as argumentation

HKM (ch 3) Euro-med EPA (ch3) G33 (ch 9) Cons. In WTO (ch8)

Nigeria’s CET (ch 5) Egyp-EU EPA (ch 6) Rule making WTO (ch 8)

Tussie, 2009, p.10

What do we need for trade

research and analysis? – Statistical data on trade of goods and services flows,

FDI, etc (labour mobility, energy, …)

– Data on tariffs and other types of direct and indirect trade barriers (trade costs, wages, etc…)

– (Ready to use) Trade performance indicators

– Tools for analysis:

• Descriptive statistics (lots of ready made products)

• Gravity and other regressions

• CGE

– Access to expert advice and guidance

– Access to stakeholders (for feedback/check on the “reality check”)

The “quality” challenge:

How to match technical rigour and policy

relevance?

Technical rigour

but no policy relevance

Policy relevance

but no technical rigour

Evidence

that is

technically

rigorous

and policy

relevant.

How TID/ESCAP could help?

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• Communities of knowledge

• Toolkits

• Datasets

• Courses for all stakeholders

• Advisory teams

• Evaluation (especially for adjustment purposes)

• Networking with donors, subregional and national

institutions

All of the above with developmental focus

Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT)

• Open regional network of trade research institutions across the

ESCAP region.

• Over 60 Institutional Members and associate partners from

across the region

• Objective: increasing the amount of quality and relevant trade

research in the region

– harnessing the research capacity already available

– developing additional capacity through regional team

research projects

– enhanced research dissemination mechanisms

– increased interactions between policymakers and

researchers

– and specific capacity building activities catering to

researchers and research institutions from least

developed countries.

• Examples of workshops:

– Capacity Building Workshop for Trade Research, June

– CGE, Gravity modeling

– Tailored national workshops

To note:

• Many sources of evidence– easy to get

lost or carried away

• One should be careful when using data

from different sources (frequently cannot

be combined)

• The amount of data does not replace

sound analysis

• Value of ARTNeT membership

THANK YOU

www.artnet.unescap.org

www.unescap.org/tid

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