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DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 454 120 SO 032 806
AUTHOR Stauffer, Cheryl Lynn, Ed.TITLE Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change.INSTITUTION Population Reference Bureau, Inc., Washington, DC.SPONS AGENCY Minneapolis Foundation, MN.PUB DATE 2000-00-00NOTE 131p.; Includes World Population Data Sheet and Teacher's
Guide. This document is an update of "World Population:Fundamentals of Growth" and "World Population: Toward theNext Century"; see ED 391 712 and ED 258 804.
AVAILABLE FROM Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW,Suite 520, Washington, DC 20009. Tel: 202-483-1100; Fax:202-328-3937; e-mail: [email protected]. For Full Text:http://www.prb.orgief/.
PUB TYPE Guides Classroom Teacher (052) -- Numerical/QuantitativeData (110)
EDRS PRICE MF01/PC06 Plus Postage.DESCRIPTORS Demography; *Females; Foreign Countries; *Futures (of
Society); Health; Human Geography; Middle Schools;*Population Growth; Secondary Education; Social Studies;Socioeconomic Status; *Urban Population; *World Problems
IDENTIFIERS Environmental Problems; *Global Issues
ABSTRACT
This booklet focuses on eight elements of populationdynamics: "Population Growth and Distribution"; "Natural Increase and FutureGrowth"; "Effect of Migration on Population Growth"; "Three Patterns ofPopulation Change"; "Patterns of World Urbanization"; "The Status of Women";"World Health"; and "Environmental Relationships." Charts and graphssupplement each topic with one full-size chart suitable for classdistribution or transparencies. A series of defined terms and a frequentlyasked question accompany each topic. The most recent "World Population DataSheet" and a teacher's guide, which contains information and questions forclass discussion, accompany the booklet. (BT)
Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be madefrom the original document.
'
U S
DE
PA
RT
ME
NT
OF
ED
UC
AT
ION
Offi
ce o
f Edu
catio
nal R
esea
rch
and
Impr
ovem
ent
ED
UC
AT
ION
AL
RE
SO
UR
CE
SIN
FO
RM
AT
ION
/C
EN
TE
R (
ER
IC)
Thi
s do
cum
ent h
as b
een
repr
oduc
ed a
sre
ceiv
ed fr
om th
e pe
rson
oro
rgan
izat
ion
orig
inat
ing
itM
inor
cha
nges
hav
e be
enm
ade
to
impr
ove
repr
oduc
tion
qual
ity
Poi
nts
of v
iew
or
opin
ions
stat
ed in
this
docu
men
t do
not n
eces
saril
yre
pres
ent
offic
ial O
ER
I pos
itior
or
polic
y
PE
RM
ISS
ION
TO
RE
PR
OD
UC
E A
ND
DIS
SE
MIN
AT
E T
HIS
MA
TE
RIA
L H
AS
BE
EN
GR
AN
TE
D B
Y
e.I-
toL
vt_t
oteL
TO
TH
E E
DU
CA
TIO
NA
L R
ES
OU
RC
ES
INF
OR
MA
TIO
N C
EN
TE
R (
ER
IC)
u an
iF
unda
men
tals
of g
row
th a
nd c
hang
e
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
ndC
hang
e is
an
upda
te o
f Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n:F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion:
Tow
ard
the
Nex
t Cen
tury
. Rev
isio
ns a
nd a
dditi
ons
wer
e m
ade
by C
hery
l Lyn
n S
tauf
fer,
Nov
embe
r 20
00.
Spe
cial
than
ks a
re g
iven
to D
iana
Cor
neliu
s, M
ary
Ken
t, an
d Y
vette
Col
lym
ore
who
rev
iew
ed th
e co
n-te
nt. S
haro
n H
ersh
ey F
ay d
esig
ned
the
publ
icat
ion.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
ndC
hang
e w
as p
rodu
ced
with
fund
ing
from
The
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n F
und
of T
he M
inne
apol
isF
ound
atio
n.
Thi
s bo
okle
t foc
uses
on
eigh
t ele
men
ts o
f pop
u-la
tion
dyna
mic
s. C
hart
s an
d gr
aphs
sup
plem
ent e
ach
topi
c w
ith o
ne fu
ll-si
ze c
hart
sui
tabl
e fo
r cl
ass
dist
ri-bu
tion
or tr
ansp
aren
cies
. Alo
ng w
ith e
ach
topi
c ar
ea
serie
s of
def
ined
term
s an
d a
freq
uent
ly a
sked
ques
tion.
The
mos
t rec
ent W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Dat
aS
heet
and
a te
ache
r's g
uide
of d
iscu
ssio
n qu
estio
nsan
d w
eb r
esou
rces
acc
ompa
ny th
is b
ookl
et.
Gra
de le
vel:
mid
dle
to h
igh
scho
ol
Tim
e re
quire
d: o
ne w
eek
Sub
ject
s: s
ocia
l stu
dies
, geo
grap
hy, a
nd w
orld
hist
ory
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
ndC
hang
e is
ava
ilabl
e on
line
at P
RB
's E
duca
tors
For
um: w
ww
.prb
.org
Ief/
© C
opyr
ight
200
0P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau,
Was
hing
ton,
DC
.
K-1
2 ed
ucat
ors
and
stud
ents
who
wis
h to
rep
rodu
ceth
is b
ookl
et fo
r us
e in
thei
r cl
assr
oom
s m
ay d
o so
with
out o
btai
ning
per
mis
sion
.
For
per
mis
sion
to r
eprin
t any
par
t of t
his
book
let i
nan
othe
r pu
blic
atio
n, p
leas
e co
ntac
t PR
B.
Pop
ulat
ion
Ref
eren
ce B
urea
u18
75 C
onne
ctic
ut A
ve.,
NW
, Sui
te 5
20W
ashi
ngto
n, D
C 2
0009
Pho
ne: (
202)
483
-110
0F
ax: (
202)
328
-393
7E
-mai
l: po
pref
@pr
b.or
gW
ebsi
te: w
ww
.prb
.org
t 'I
TA
BLE
OF
CO
NT
EN
TS
PO
PU
LAT
ION
GR
OW
TH
AN
DD
IST
RIB
UT
ION
Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
, 175
0-21
50.
..2
Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n di
strib
utio
n by
reg
ion,
1800
-205
03
Top
10
larg
est u
rban
agg
lom
erat
ions
in19
50, 2
000,
201
54
Has
the
wor
ld's
pop
ulat
ion
dist
ribut
ion
chan
ged
muc
h ov
er ti
me?
5
NA
TU
RA
L IN
CR
EA
SE
AN
DF
UT
UR
E G
RO
WT
HP
opul
atio
n gr
owth
thro
ugh
natu
ral
incr
ease
, 177
5-20
006
Com
pone
nts
of p
opul
atio
n ch
ange
7
Fut
ure
of w
orld
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th:
thre
e sc
enar
ios,
200
0 to
205
08
Whe
n co
uld
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n st
opgr
owin
g?9
EF
FE
CT
OF
MIG
RA
TIO
N O
NP
OP
ULA
TIO
N G
RO
WT
HR
egio
nal o
rigin
s of
imm
igra
nts
to th
eU
nite
d S
tate
s, s
elec
ted
year
s10
Per
cent
age
of U
.S. p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
from
mig
ratio
n, 1
900-
1999
12
How
den
sely
pop
ulat
ed is
the
plan
et?
..
13
Pop
ulat
ion
dens
ities
, 200
013
8
II
TH
RE
E P
AT
TE
RN
S O
FP
OP
ULA
TIO
N C
HA
NG
ET
hree
pat
tern
s of
pop
ulat
ion
chan
ge, 2
000
14
Age
-sex
str
uctu
res
in tr
ansi
tion
16
Why
doe
s it
take
so
long
to s
low
or
stop
popu
latio
n gr
owth
?17
PA
TT
ER
NS
OF
WO
RLD
UR
BA
NIZ
AT
ION
Larg
est u
rban
agg
lom
erat
ions
,19
50, 2
000,
201
518
Gro
wth
of u
rban
agg
lom
erat
ions
,19
50-2
015
19
Top
10
larg
est u
rban
agg
lom
erat
ions
in19
50, 2
000,
201
520
Wha
t are
the
soci
al im
plic
atio
ns o
fra
pid
popu
latio
n gr
owth
in le
ssde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s?21
TH
E S
TA
TU
S O
F W
OM
EN
Wom
en's
edu
catio
n an
d fa
mily
siz
e in
sele
cted
cou
ntrie
s, 1
990s
22
Wom
en's
age
at f
irst m
arria
ge (
year
s)an
d fa
mily
siz
e (T
FR
) in
sel
ecte
dco
untr
ies,
199
0s23
Dem
ogra
phic
and
soc
ioec
onom
icin
dica
tors
in In
dia
and
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes,
late
199
0s24
Whi
ch p
olic
ies
are
mos
t effe
ctiv
e in
redu
cing
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th?
25
WO
RLD
HE
ALT
HM
ajor
cau
ses
of d
eath
in th
e U
nite
dS
tate
s an
d P
eru
26D
eath
s to
chi
ldre
n un
der
age
5 by
mai
n ca
use,
less
dev
elop
edco
untr
ies,
199
527
Wor
ld in
fant
mor
talit
y ra
tes
in s
elec
ted
coun
trie
s, 2
000
28P
erce
nt o
f wor
ld's
HIV
/AID
S c
ases
,19
99, a
nd p
erce
nt o
f wor
ldpo
pula
tion,
200
028
Doe
s A
IDS
hav
e a
sign
ifica
nt im
pact
on
popu
latio
n gr
owth
?29
EN
VIR
ON
ME
NT
AL
RE
LAT
ION
SH
IPS
Per
cap
ita a
nnua
l ren
ewab
le fr
eshw
ater
avai
labi
lity,
195
0, 1
995,
205
030
Sha
re o
f pop
ulat
ion
and
ener
gypr
oduc
tion
and
cons
umpt
ion,
199
5.
32
Doe
s th
e re
latio
nshi
p be
twee
npo
pula
tion
and
the
envi
ronm
ent
vary
by
regi
on?
33
9
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 1
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 2
WO
RLD
PO
PU
LAT
ION
GR
OW
TH
, 175
0-21
50
Pop
ulat
ion
(in b
illio
ns)
10 8 6 4 2
2000
6.1
billi
on/
deve
lope
dLe
ss
0 LI1
N.
a-
0 0 00 a-
0 L11
CO a-
0 0 C1 a
0 LA 01 e-
0 0 0 N
coun
trie
s
Mor
e de
velo
ped
coun
trie
s
0 LA 0 CS
I
0 0 tN
Sou
rce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
, Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n P
rosp
ects
, The
199
8 R
evis
ion;
and
est
imat
es b
y th
e P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau.
0 LA M1
1011
In 2
000,
the
wor
ld h
ad 6
.1 b
illio
nhu
man
inha
bita
nts.
Thi
s nu
mbe
r co
uld
rise
tom
ore
than
9 b
illio
n in
the
next
50
year
s. F
orth
e la
st 5
0 ye
ars,
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n m
ultip
lied
mor
e ra
pidl
y th
an e
ver
befo
re, a
nd m
ore
rapi
dly
than
it w
ill e
ver
grow
in th
e fu
ture
.A
nthr
opol
ogis
ts b
elie
ve th
e hu
man
spe
cies
date
s ba
ck a
t lea
st 3
mill
ion
year
s. F
or m
ost o
fou
r hi
stor
y, th
ese
dist
ant a
nces
tors
live
d a
pre-
cario
us e
xist
ence
as
hunt
ers
and
gath
erer
s. T
his
way
of l
ife k
ept t
heir
tota
l num
bers
sm
all,
prob
ably
less
than
10
mill
ion.
How
ever
, as
agri-
cultu
re w
as in
trod
uced
, com
mun
ities
evo
lved
that
cou
ld s
uppo
rt m
ore
peop
le.
Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n ex
pand
ed to
abo
ut 3
00m
illio
n by
A.D
. 1 a
nd c
ontin
ued
to g
row
at a
mod
erat
e ra
te. B
ut a
fter
the
star
t of t
heIn
dust
rial R
evol
utio
n in
the
18th
cen
tury
, liv
-in
g st
anda
rds
rose
and
wid
espr
ead
fam
ines
and
epid
emic
s di
min
ishe
d in
som
e re
gion
s.P
opul
atio
n gr
owth
acc
eler
ated
. The
pop
ula-
tion
clim
bed
to a
bout
760
mill
ion
in 1
750
and
reac
hed
1 bi
llion
aro
und
1800
(se
e ch
art,
"Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
, 175
0-21
50,"
p. 2
).In
180
0, th
e va
st m
ajor
ity o
f the
wor
ld's
popu
latio
n (8
6 pe
rcen
t) r
esid
ed in
Asi
a an
dE
urop
e, w
ith 6
5 pe
rcen
t in
Asi
a al
one
(see
char
t, "W
orld
pop
ulat
ion
dist
ribut
ion
byre
gion
, 180
0-20
50")
. By
1900
, Eur
ope'
s sh
are
of w
orld
pop
ulat
ion
had
risen
to 2
5 pe
rcen
t,fu
eled
by
the
popu
latio
n in
crea
se th
at a
ccom
-pa
nied
the
Indu
stria
l Rev
olut
ion.
Som
e of
this
grow
th s
pille
d ov
er to
the
Am
eric
as, i
ncre
as-
ing
thei
r sh
are
of th
e w
orld
tota
l.
12
and
TR
IBU
TIO
NW
orld
pop
ulat
ion
dist
ribut
ion
by r
egio
n, 1
800-
2050
"r
Nt)
ui
in9
F
o co 0 N
r.
NN
Nor
th A
mer
ica)
1800
1900
2000
2050
)3
Sou
rce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n, B
riefin
g P
acke
t 199
8 R
evis
ion
of W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Pro
spec
ts.
Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
acc
eler
ated
afte
r W
orld
War
II, w
hen
the
popu
latio
n of
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
bega
n to
incr
ease
dram
atic
ally
. Afte
r m
illio
ns o
f yea
rs o
fex
trem
ely
slow
gro
wth
, the
hum
an p
opul
a-tio
n in
deed
gre
w e
xplo
sive
ly, d
oubl
ing
agai
nan
d ag
ain;
a b
illio
n pe
ople
wer
e ad
ded
betw
een
1960
and
197
5; a
noth
er b
illio
n w
ere
adde
d be
twee
n 19
75 a
nd 1
987.
Thr
ough
out
the
20th
cen
tury
eac
h ad
ditio
nal b
illio
n ha
s
been
ach
ieve
d in
a s
hort
er p
erio
d of
tim
e.H
uman
pop
ulat
ion
ente
red
the
20th
cen
tury
with
1.6
bill
ion
peop
le a
nd le
ft th
e ce
ntur
yw
ith 6
.1 b
illio
n.T
he g
row
th o
f the
last
200
yea
rs a
ppea
rsex
plos
ive
on th
e hi
stor
ical
tim
elin
e. T
heov
eral
l effe
cts
of th
is g
row
th o
n liv
ing
stan
dard
s, r
esou
rce
use,
and
the
envi
ronm
ent
will
con
tinue
to c
hang
e th
e w
orld
land
scap
elo
ng a
fter.
13H
uman
Pop
ulat
ion:
Fun
dam
enta
ls o
f Gro
wth
and
Cha
nge
3
EX
PO
NE
NT
IAL
GR
OW
TH
As
long
ago
as
1789
, Tho
mas
Mal
thus
stud
ied
the
natu
re o
f pop
ulat
ion
grow
th in
Eur
ope.
He
clai
med
that
pop
ulat
ion
was
incr
easi
ng fa
ster
than
food
pro
duct
ion,
and
he fe
ared
eve
ntua
l glo
bal s
tarv
atio
n. O
fco
urse
he
coul
d no
t for
esee
how
mod
ern
tech
nolo
gy w
ould
exp
and
food
pro
duct
ion,
but h
is o
bser
vatio
ns a
bout
how
pop
ulat
ions
incr
ease
wer
e im
port
ant.
Pop
ulat
ion
grow
sge
omet
rical
ly (
1, 2
, 4, 8
...),
rat
her
than
arit
h-m
etic
ally
(1,
2, 3
, 4...
), w
hich
is w
hy th
e nu
m-
bers
can
incr
ease
so
quic
kly.
A s
tory
sai
d to
hav
e or
igin
ated
in P
ersi
aof
fers
a c
lass
ic e
xam
ple
of e
xpon
entia
lgr
owth
. It t
ells
of a
cle
ver
cour
tier
who
pre
-se
nted
a b
eaut
iful c
hess
set
to h
is k
ing
and
inre
turn
ask
ed o
nly
that
the
king
giv
e hi
m o
negr
ain
of r
ice
for
the
first
squ
are,
two
grai
ns,
or d
oubl
e th
e am
ount
, for
the
seco
nd s
quar
e,fo
ur g
rain
s (o
r do
uble
aga
in)
for
the
third
,an
d so
fort
h. T
he k
ing,
not
bei
ng m
athe
mat
i-ca
lly in
clin
ed, a
gree
d an
d or
dere
d th
e ric
e to
be b
roug
ht fr
om s
tora
ge. T
he e
ight
h sq
uare
requ
ired
128
grai
ns, t
he 1
2th
took
mor
e th
anon
e po
und.
Lon
g be
fore
rea
chin
g th
e 64
thsq
uare
, eve
ry g
rain
of r
ice
in th
e ki
ngdo
mha
d be
en u
sed.
Eve
n to
day,
the
tota
l wor
ldric
e pr
oduc
tion
wou
ld n
ot b
e en
ough
to m
eet
the
amou
nt r
equi
red
for
the
final
squ
are
ofth
e ch
essb
oard
. The
sec
ret t
o un
ders
tand
ing
the
arith
met
ic is
that
the
rate
of g
row
th(d
oubl
ing
for
each
squ
are)
app
lies
to a
n ev
er-
expa
ndin
g am
ount
of r
ice,
so
the
num
ber
ofgr
ains
add
ed w
ith e
ach
doub
ling
goes
up,
even
thou
gh th
e ra
te o
f gro
wth
is c
onst
ant.
Sim
ilarly
, if a
cou
ntry
's p
opul
atio
n be
gins
with
1 m
illio
n an
d gr
ows
at a
ste
ady
3 pe
r-ce
nt a
nnua
lly, i
t will
add
30,
000
pers
ons
the
first
yea
r, a
lmos
t 31,
000
the
seco
nd y
ear,
and
40,0
00 b
y th
e 10
th y
ear.
At a
3 p
erce
ntgr
owth
rat
e, it
s do
ublin
g tim
e-or
the
num
-
1 4
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 4
Top
10
larg
est u
rban
agg
lom
erat
ions
in 1
950,
200
0, 2
015
1950
2000
2015
1. N
ew Y
ork,
US
A12
.31.
Tok
yo, J
apan
26.4
1. T
okyo
, Jap
an26
.42.
Lon
don,
Eng
land
8.7
2. M
exic
o C
ity, M
exic
o18
.42.
Bom
bay,
Indi
a26
.1
3. T
okyo
, Jap
an6.
93.
Bom
bay,
Indi
a18
.03.
Lag
os, N
iger
ia23
.2
4. P
aris
, Fra
nce
5.4
4. S
ao P
aulo
, Bra
zil
17.8
4. D
haka
, Ban
glad
esh
21.1
5. M
osco
w, R
ussi
a5.
45.
New
Yor
k, U
SA
16.6
5. S
ao P
aulo
, Bra
zil
20.4
6. S
hang
hai,
Chi
na5.
36.
Lag
os, N
iger
ia13
.46.
Kar
achi
, Pak
ista
n19
.2
7. E
ssen
, Ger
man
y5.
37.
Los
Ang
eles
, US
A13
.17.
Mex
ico
City
, Mex
ico
19.2
8. B
ueno
s A
ires,
Arg
entin
a5.
08.
Cal
cutta
, Ind
ia12
.98.
New
Yor
k, U
SA
17.4
9. C
hica
go, U
SA
4.9
9. S
hang
hai,
Chi
na12
.99.
Jak
arta
, Ind
ones
ia17
.3
10. C
alcu
tta, I
ndia
4.4
10. B
ueno
s A
ires,
Arg
entin
a 12
.610
. Cal
cutta
, Ind
ia17
.3
Sou
rce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
, Wor
ld U
rban
izat
ion
Pro
spec
ts, T
he 1
999
Rev
isio
n.
ber
of y
ears
to d
oubl
e in
siz
e-is
23
year
s.(T
he d
oubl
ing
time
for
a po
pula
tion
can
bero
ughl
y de
term
ined
by
divi
ding
the
curr
ent
grow
th r
ate
into
the
num
ber
"69.
" T
here
fore
,69
/3=
23 y
ears
. Of c
ours
e, if
a p
opul
atio
n's
grow
th r
ate
does
not
rem
ain
at th
is r
ate,
the
proj
ecte
d do
ublin
g tim
e w
ould
nee
d to
be
reca
lcul
ated
.)T
he 2
000
grow
th r
ate
of 1
.4 p
erce
nt,
whe
n ap
plie
d to
the
wor
ld's
6.1
bill
ion
popu
-la
tion,
yie
lds
an a
nnua
l inc
reas
e of
abo
ut 8
5m
illio
n pe
ople
. Bec
ause
of t
he la
rge
and
incr
easi
ng p
opul
atio
n si
ze, t
he n
umbe
r of
peop
le a
dded
to th
e gl
obal
pop
ulat
ion
will
rem
ain
high
for
seve
ral d
ecad
es, e
ven
asgr
owth
rat
es c
ontin
ue to
dec
line.
Bet
wee
n 20
00 a
nd 2
030,
nea
rly 1
00 p
er-
cent
of t
his
annu
al g
row
th w
ill o
ccur
in th
ele
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntrie
s in
Afr
ica,
Asi
a, a
ndLa
tin A
mer
ica,
who
se p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
rate
s ar
e m
uch
high
er th
an th
ose
in m
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies.
Gro
wth
rat
es o
f 1.9
per
-ce
nt a
nd h
ighe
r m
ean
that
pop
ulat
ions
wou
lddo
uble
in a
bout
36
year
s, if
thes
e ra
tes
con-
tinue
. Dem
ogra
pher
s do
not
bel
ieve
they
will
.P
roje
ctio
ns o
f gro
wth
rat
es a
re lo
wer
than
1.9
perc
ent b
ecau
se b
irth
rate
s ar
e de
clin
ing
and
are
expe
cted
to c
ontin
ue to
do
so. T
he p
opu-
latio
ns in
the
less
dev
elop
ed r
egio
ns w
ill m
ost
likel
y co
ntin
ue to
com
man
d a
larg
er p
ropo
r-tio
n of
the
wor
ld to
tal.
Whi
le A
sia'
s sh
are
ofw
orld
pop
ulat
ion
may
con
tinue
to h
over
arou
nd 5
5 pe
rcen
t thr
ough
the
next
cen
tury
,E
urop
e's
port
ion
has
decl
ined
sha
rply
and
coul
d dr
op e
ven
mor
e du
ring
the
21st
cen
-tu
ry. A
fric
a an
d La
tin A
mer
ica
each
wou
ldga
in p
art o
f Eur
ope'
s po
rtio
n. B
y 21
00, A
fric
ais
exp
ecte
d to
cap
ture
the
grea
test
sha
re (
see
char
t, "W
orld
pop
ulat
ion
dist
ribut
ion
byre
gion
, 180
0-20
50,"
p. 3
).T
he m
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies
in E
urop
ean
d N
orth
Am
eric
a, a
s w
ell a
s Ja
pan,
Aus
tral
ia, a
nd N
ew Z
eala
nd, a
re g
row
ing
byle
ss th
an 1
per
cent
ann
ually
. Pop
ulat
ion
grow
th r
ates
are
neg
ativ
e in
man
y E
urop
ean
coun
trie
s, in
clud
ing
Rus
sia
(-0.
6%),
Est
onia
(-0.
5%),
Hun
gary
(-0
.4%
), a
nd U
krai
ne(-
0.4%
). If
the
grow
th r
ates
in th
ese
coun
trie
sco
ntin
ue to
fall
belo
w z
ero,
pop
ulat
ion
size
wou
ld s
low
ly d
eclin
e. A
s th
e ch
art "
Wor
ldpo
pula
tion
grow
th, 1
750-
2150
" (p
. 2)
show
s,po
pula
tion
incr
ease
in m
ore
deve
lope
dco
untr
ies
is a
lread
y lo
w a
nd is
exp
ecte
dto
sta
biliz
e.
Has
the
wor
ld's
pop
ulat
ion
dist
ribut
ion
chan
ged
muc
h ov
er ti
me?
Sur
pris
ingl
y, n
o. D
urin
g th
e la
st tw
o ce
ntur
ies
mos
t of t
he w
orld
's p
eopl
e liv
ed in
Asi
a, w
hile
rela
tivel
y fe
w li
ved
in L
atin
Am
eric
a, N
orth
Am
eric
a, a
nd O
cean
ia. E
urop
e ra
nks
seco
ndto
Asi
a, b
ut it
s sh
are
is d
ecre
asin
g w
hile
Afr
ica'
s sh
are
is in
crea
sing
.P
rior
to 1
800,
Asi
a's
popu
latio
n re
pre-
sent
ed r
ough
ly tw
o-th
irds
of th
e w
orld
tota
l.E
urop
e an
d A
fric
a flu
ctua
ted,
eac
h us
ually
hold
ing
betw
een
15 p
erce
nt a
nd 2
0 pe
rcen
tof
the
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n. T
he r
emai
ning
few
peop
le w
ere
scat
tere
d in
Lat
in A
mer
ica,
Nor
thA
mer
ica,
and
Oce
ania
, with
Lat
in A
mer
ica
havi
ng th
e la
rges
t num
ber.
By
1800
, the
Indu
stria
l Rev
olut
ion
bega
n in
Eur
ope
and
itssh
are
of g
loba
l pop
ulat
ion
incr
ease
d. A
sia
mai
ntai
ned
two-
third
s of
the
wor
ld's
peo
ple
and
Afr
ica'
s sh
are
decl
ined
. Les
s th
an 5
per
-ce
nt r
esid
ed in
the
Am
eric
as a
nd O
cean
iaco
mbi
ned
(see
cha
rt, "
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
nD
istr
ibut
ion
by R
egio
n, 1
800-
2050
," p
. 3).
By
1900
, Asi
a's
shar
e of
the
wor
ld p
opul
atio
nde
clin
ed to
abo
ut o
ne-h
alf a
s E
urop
e, N
orth
Am
eric
a, a
nd L
atin
Am
eric
a gr
ew r
apid
ly.
Sin
ce r
ates
of p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
are
cur
-re
ntly
hig
hest
in th
e le
ss d
evel
oped
reg
ions
,th
eir
shar
e of
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n w
ill in
crea
se.
In 2
000,
Asi
a's
popu
latio
n ro
se a
gain
toac
coun
t for
60
perc
ent o
f the
wor
ld to
tal;
Afr
ica'
s sh
are
incr
ease
d to
be
equa
l to
Eur
ope'
s po
rtio
n. If
cur
rent
tren
ds c
ontin
ue,
Asi
a w
ill r
emai
n at
60
perc
ent o
f the
wor
ldto
tal i
n 20
50, A
fric
a's
shar
e w
ill r
ise
to a
bout
16
20 p
erce
nt, a
nd E
urop
e's
shar
e w
ill d
rop
belo
w L
atin
Am
eric
a'sl
ess
than
10
perc
ent.
Ove
r tim
e, th
e di
strib
utio
n of
pop
ulat
ion
chan
ges
beca
use
of v
aria
tions
in th
e ra
te o
fna
tura
l inc
reas
e an
d ne
t mig
ratio
n. In
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
two-
third
s of
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th is
from
nat
ural
incr
ease
and
one
-thi
rdis
from
imm
igra
tion
or in
tern
atio
nal m
igra
-tio
n. In
tern
al c
hang
e in
pop
ulat
ion
dist
ribu-
tion
with
in th
e U
nite
d S
tate
s oc
curs
bec
ause
of in
tern
al m
igra
tion
rath
er th
an a
s a
resu
ltof
nat
ural
incr
ease
. Eve
ry y
ear,
nea
rly o
ne in
five
Am
eric
ans
mov
es to
a n
ew lo
catio
n, m
ak-
ing
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
one
of th
e w
orld
's m
ost
mob
ile s
ocie
ties.
Rur
al-t
o-ur
ban
mig
ratio
n, c
ombi
ned
with
natu
ral i
ncre
ase,
is le
adin
g to
a d
ispr
opor
tion-
ate
incr
ease
in u
rban
pop
ulat
ion,
esp
ecia
lly in
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries.
A c
entu
ry a
go, o
nly
10 p
erce
nt o
f the
wor
ld's
pop
ulat
ion
lived
inur
ban
area
s. B
y 19
50, t
he u
rban
sha
re h
adris
en to
29
perc
ent,
and
toda
y it
is 4
5 pe
rcen
t.B
y th
e ye
ar 2
020,
the
maj
ority
of h
uman
bein
gsab
out t
hree
-fift
hsar
e pr
ojec
ted
toliv
e in
urb
an a
reas
, ran
ging
from
mar
ket
tow
ns to
meg
aciti
es.
Urb
an a
reas
are
get
ting
larg
er. I
n 19
50,
only
the
New
Yor
k ur
ban
area
had
ove
r 10
mill
ion
peop
le. B
y 20
10, t
here
cou
ld b
e m
ore
than
26
urba
n ar
eas
over
10
mill
iont
wic
eth
e nu
mbe
r in
199
0. F
ive
of th
ese
urba
n ar
eas
wou
ld h
old
over
20
mill
ion
peop
le e
ach.
Onl
ytw
o of
the
10 la
rges
t urb
an a
reas
pro
ject
edfo
r 20
10 a
re e
xpec
ted
to b
e in
the
mor
ede
velo
ped
coun
trie
s (s
ee ta
ble,
"T
op 1
0la
rges
t urb
an a
gglo
mer
atio
ns,"
p. 4
).
TE
RM
SD
oubl
ing
time
The
num
ber
ofye
ars
requ
ired
for
the
popu
la-
tion
of a
n ar
ea to
dou
ble
itspr
esen
t siz
e, g
iven
the
curr
ent
rate
of p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
.P
opul
atio
n do
ublin
g tim
e is
use
-fu
l to
dem
onst
rate
the
long
-te
rm e
ffect
of a
gro
wth
rat
e,bu
t sho
uld
not b
e us
ed to
pro
-je
ct p
opul
atio
n si
ze. M
any
mor
ede
velo
ped
coun
trie
s ha
ve v
ery
low
gro
wth
rat
es a
nd, a
s a
resu
lt, th
e eq
uatio
n sh
ows
dou-
blin
g tim
es o
f hun
dred
s or
thou
-sa
nds
of y
ears
. But
thes
eco
untr
ies
are
not e
xpec
ted
to
ever
dou
ble
agai
n. M
ost,
in fa
ct,
likel
y ha
ve p
opul
atio
n de
clin
esin
thei
r fu
ture
. Man
y le
ss d
evel
-op
ed c
ount
ries
have
hig
hgr
owth
rat
es th
at a
re a
ssoc
iate
dw
ith s
hort
dou
blin
g tim
es, b
utar
e ex
pect
ed to
gro
w m
ore
slow
ly a
s bi
rth
rate
s ar
e ex
pect
-ed
to c
ontin
ue to
dec
line.
Gro
wth
rat
e T
he n
umbe
r of
pers
ons
adde
d to
(or
sub
trac
ted
from
) a
popu
latio
n in
a y
ear
due
to n
atur
al in
crea
se a
nd n
etm
igra
tion;
exp
ress
ed a
s a
per-
cent
age
of th
e po
pula
tion
at
the
begi
nnin
g of
the
time
perio
d.
Less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
Less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
incl
ude
all c
ount
ries
in A
fric
a, A
sia
(exc
ludi
ng J
apan
), a
nd L
atin
Am
eric
a an
d th
e C
arib
bean
, and
the
regi
ons
of M
elan
esia
,M
icro
nesi
a, a
nd P
olyn
esia
.
Mor
e de
velo
ped
coun
trie
sM
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies
incl
ude
all c
ount
ries
in E
urop
e,N
orth
Am
eric
a, A
ustr
alia
, New
Zea
land
, and
Jap
an.
^0
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 5
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 6
PO
PU
LAT
ION
GR
OW
TH
TH
RO
UG
H N
AT
UR
AL
INC
RE
AS
E,
1775
-200
0
Less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
Nat
ural
incr
ease
Mor
e de
velo
ped
coun
trie
s
Nat
ural
incr
ease
Birt
h ra
te
Dea
th r
ate
oLI
10
LA0
L11
01.
110
Lf1
0Lf
lo
Lt1
0Lf
10
LA0
0N
111
N0
MI
LA1%
.0
N0
tNLA
N0
CV
111
N0
00C
OC
OC
OO
N0a
0101
0N
CO
CO
CO
CO
0113
101
(31
0I-
a-a-
a-a-
a-e-
a-fN
a-a-
a-a-
a-a-
a-a-
a-f's
l
Sou
rce:
Pop
ulat
ion
Ref
eren
ce B
urea
u.
7f*
Pop
ulat
ion
chan
ge a
ffect
s al
l our
lives
in a
muc
h m
ore
imm
edia
te w
ay to
day
than
it h
as th
roug
hout
mos
t of h
uman
his
-to
ry. F
or th
e fir
st o
ne-h
alf m
illio
n ye
ars
ofhu
man
exi
sten
ce,-
the
popu
latio
n gr
owth
rat
ew
as a
bout
zer
o. T
he p
opul
atio
n st
ayed
abo
utth
e sa
me
size
from
yea
r to
yea
r. It
was
not
--un
til th
e 17
00s
that
the
mod
ern
era
of p
opu-
latio
n gr
owth
beg
an. B
etw
een
1850
and
1900
, the
ann
ual g
row
th r
ate
reac
hed
0.5
perc
ent.
The
rat
e su
rged
to 2
.0 p
erce
nt b
yth
e m
id-1
960s
, dro
pped
to 1
.7 p
erce
nt b
y th
em
id-1
980s
, and
dec
lined
to a
bout
1.4
per
cent
by 2
000.
Why
has
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n gr
own
at s
uch
diffe
rent
rat
es th
roug
hout
his
tory
?P
opul
atio
n ch
ange
res
ults
from
the
inte
rac-
tion
of th
ree
varia
bles
: birt
hs, d
eath
s, a
ndm
igra
tion.
Thi
s re
latio
nshi
p is
sum
mar
ized
by
a fo
rmul
a kn
own
as th
e ba
lanc
ing
equa
tion.
The
diff
eren
ce b
etw
een
birt
hs a
nd d
eath
s in
a po
pula
tion
prod
uces
the
natu
ral i
ncre
ase
(or
decr
ease
) of
a p
opul
atio
n. N
et m
igra
tion
is th
e di
ffere
nce
betw
een
the
num
ber
of p
er-
sons
ent
erin
g a
geog
raph
ic a
rea
(imm
igra
nts)
and
thos
e le
avin
g (e
mig
rant
s). N
atur
alin
crea
se u
sual
ly a
ccou
nts
for
the
grea
test
amou
nt o
f gro
wth
in a
pop
ulat
ion,
esp
ecia
llyw
ithin
a s
hort
per
iod
of ti
me.
For
the
wor
ld,
grow
th o
ccur
s on
ly w
hen
ther
e ar
e m
ore
birt
hs th
an d
eath
s; fo
r in
divi
dual
cou
ntrie
s,m
igra
tion
is a
lso
a fa
ctor
.
TH
E M
OR
TA
LIT
Y R
EV
OLU
TIO
NH
uman
pop
ulat
ion
grew
rap
idly
dur
ing
the
Indu
stria
l Rev
olut
ion,
not
bec
ause
the
birt
hra
te in
crea
sed,
but
bec
ause
the
deat
h ra
tebe
gan
to fa
ll. T
his
mor
talit
y re
volu
tion
bega
nin
the
1700
s in
Eur
ope
and
spre
ad to
Nor
th_A
mer
ica
by th
e m
id-1
800s
. Dea
th r
ates
fell
asne
wia
rmin
g_an
d tr
ansp
orta
tion
tech
nolo
gyex
pand
ed th
e fo
od-S
-013
ply
and_
less
ened
the
dang
er o
f fam
ine.
New
tech
nolo
gieS
and
_in
crea
sing
indu
stria
lizat
ion
impr
oved
pub
liche
alth
and
livi
ng s
tand
ards
. Lat
e in
the
19th
cent
ury,
birt
h ra
tes
also
beg
an to
fall
inE
urop
e an
d N
orth
Am
eric
a, s
low
ing
the
popu
latio
n gr
owth
that
had
res
ulte
d fr
omco
ntin
ued
mod
erat
ely
high
er b
irth
rate
s th
ande
ath
rate
s.
toric
low
s. H
owev
er, t
he to
tal f
ertil
ity r
ate
(TF
R)
in m
any
mor
e de
velo
ped
coun
trie
s ar
ew
ell b
elow
rep
lace
men
t lev
els
of tw
o ch
il-dr
en p
er c
oupl
e. In
add
ition
, poo
r ec
onom
icco
nditi
ons
in th
e co
untr
ies
of th
e fo
rmer
Sov
iet U
nion
hav
e le
d to
a s
erio
us d
eclin
e in
birt
h ra
tes
and
incr
ease
in d
eath
rat
es, c
on-
trib
utin
g to
dec
linin
g po
pula
tion
size
inso
me
of th
ese
coun
trie
s.
TH
E D
EM
OG
RA
PH
IC T
RA
NS
ITIO
ND
emog
raph
ers
have
atte
mpt
ed to
exp
lain
the
expe
rienc
e of
thes
e m
ore
deve
lope
dco
untr
ies
as a
dem
ogra
phic
tran
sitio
n fr
omhi
gh b
irth
rate
s an
d de
ath
rate
s to
the
cur-
rent
low
leve
ls. T
his
proc
ess
tend
s to
occ
ur in
thre
e st
ages
. Firs
t, bi
rth
and
deat
h ra
tes
are
both
hig
h, s
o lit
tle g
row
th o
ccur
s. S
econ
d,
Com
pone
nts
of p
opul
atio
n ch
ange
Birt
hsD
eath
sIm
mig
rant
s -
Em
igra
nts
or N
atur
al In
crea
se)
k or
Net
Mig
ratio
nG
row
th(o
r D
ecre
ase)
Sin
ce 1
900,
bot
h bi
rth
and
deat
h ra
tes
inth
e m
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies
have
con
tin-
ued
to fa
ll in
tand
em, w
ith a
few
inte
rrup
-tio
ns. A
wor
ldw
ide
influ
enza
pan
dem
ic in
1918
cau
sed
the
deat
h of
bet
wee
n 20
mill
ion
and
40 m
illio
n pe
ople
and
pro
duce
d a
tem
-po
rary
incr
ease
in th
e de
ath
rate
. A s
light
incr
ease
in b
irth
rate
s oc
curr
ed a
fter
Wor
ldW
ars
I and
II. I
n th
e 19
80s,
birt
h an
d de
ath
rate
s in
the
mor
e de
velo
ped
wor
ld fe
ll to
his
-
deat
h ra
tes
fall
due
to im
prov
ed li
ving
con
di-
tions
, whi
le b
irth
rate
s re
mai
n hi
gh. D
urin
gth
is p
erio
d po
pula
tion
grow
s ra
pidl
y. T
he-t
hird
sta
ge o
f the
tran
sitio
n is
rea
ched
whe
nfe
rtili
ty fa
lls a
nd c
lose
s th
e ga
p be
twee
nbi
rth
and
deat
h ra
tes,
res
ultin
g ag
ain
in a
slow
er p
ace
of p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
. The
cha
rt"P
opul
atio
n gr
owth
thro
ugh
natu
ral
incr
ease
" (p
. 6)
is a
cru
de r
epre
sent
atio
n of
this
tran
sitio
n. A
ll th
e m
ore
deve
lope
d co
un-
21H
uman
Pop
ulat
ion:
Fun
dam
enta
ls o
f Gro
wth
and
Cha
nge
7
Fut
ure
of w
orld
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th: t
hree
sce
nario
s, 2
000
to 2
050
10.7
,,,o0
°00
000°
8.9
_'.3
,0: °
1:1
:70
_,=
3,,,,
,,, 0
pc,
0 m
oo0,
6.0
0la
°
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Hig
hfe
rtili
ty(2
.5 c
hild
ren
per
wom
an)
Med
ium
fert
ility
(2.
0 ch
ildre
n pe
r w
oman
)
Low
fert
ility
(1.
6 ch
ildre
n pe
r w
oman
)
Sou
rce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
, Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n P
rosp
ects
, The
1998
Rev
isio
n.
trie
s ha
ve e
nter
ed th
is th
ird s
tage
of t
hede
mog
raph
ic tr
ansi
tion.
A fe
w h
ave
gone
on
to a
four
th s
tage
in w
hich
dea
th r
ates
are
high
er th
an b
irth
rate
s, a
nd th
e po
pula
tion
decl
ines
.In
con
tras
t to
the
mor
e de
velo
ped
coun
-tr
ies,
the
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
riesi
n A
sia,
Afr
ica,
and
Lat
in A
mer
icah
ad b
oth
high
erbi
rth
and
deat
h ra
tes
in th
e 19
00s
than
Eur
ope
and
Nor
th A
mer
ica
had
in th
e 17
00s,
and
thes
e hi
gher
rat
es h
ave
cont
inue
dth
roug
hout
the
20th
cen
tury
. In
mos
t les
sde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s, th
e m
orta
lity
revo
lutio
ndi
d no
t beg
in in
ear
nest
unt
il af
ter
Wor
ldW
ar II
, and
it fo
llow
ed a
diff
eren
t pat
tern
than
that
in E
urop
ean
coun
trie
s. B
irth
and
deat
h ra
tes
wer
e hi
gher
at t
he s
tart
of t
hede
mog
raph
ic tr
ansi
tion
than
they
had
bee
n
in E
urop
e or
Nor
th A
mer
ica.
Dea
th r
ates
fell
rapi
dly
in le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntrie
s th
roug
hth
e in
trod
uctio
n of
med
ical
and
pub
lic h
ealth
tech
nolo
gy; a
ntib
iotic
s an
d im
mun
izat
ion
redu
ced
deat
hs fr
om in
fect
ious
dis
ease
s; a
ndin
sect
icid
es h
elpe
d co
ntro
l mal
aria
. The
sech
ange
s di
d no
t res
ult f
rom
eco
nom
ic d
evel
-op
men
t with
in th
e co
untr
ies,
but
wer
e a
resu
lt of
inte
rnat
iona
l for
eign
aid
.In
the
seco
nd s
tage
of t
he d
emog
raph
ictr
ansi
tion
of th
ese
regi
ons,
mor
talit
y de
clin
esle
d to
con
tinue
d po
pula
tion
grow
th. B
irth
rate
s ev
en in
crea
sed
as a
res
ult o
f the
bet
ter
heal
th e
njoy
ed b
y th
e po
pula
tion.
With
decl
inin
g m
orta
lity
and
incr
easi
ng fe
rtili
tyra
tes,
the
popu
latio
n gr
owth
of t
he le
ssde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s ac
hiev
ed a
n un
para
l-le
led
2.5
perc
ent p
er y
ear
in th
e 19
60s.
Ove
rall,
mor
talit
y ra
tes
in th
e le
ss d
evel
oped
coun
trie
s fe
ll m
uch
fast
er th
an d
urin
g th
ede
mog
raph
ic tr
ansi
tion
in th
e m
ore
deve
l-op
ed c
ount
ries.
As
a re
sult,
ther
e de
velo
ped
a la
rge
gap
in th
e pe
rcen
tage
of g
row
thbe
twee
n th
ese
two
regi
ons.
Sin
ce 1
970,
birt
hra
tes
have
falle
n, b
ut th
e de
ath
rate
has
falle
n fa
ster
. The
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th r
ate
isst
ill h
igh,
abo
ut 1
.9 p
erce
nt a
nnua
lly in
200
0.W
hile
the
patte
rns
of fe
rtili
ty d
eclin
e ha
veva
ried
dram
atic
ally
thro
ugho
ut th
e le
ssde
velo
ped
wor
ld, m
any
coun
trie
s ar
e w
ell
into
the
tran
sitio
n pr
oces
s. E
ven
in s
ub-
Sah
aran
Afr
ica,
whe
re b
irth
rate
s re
mai
ned
high
thro
ugh
muc
h of
the
1980
s an
d 19
90s,
fert
ility
rat
es in
mos
t cou
ntrie
s ar
e de
clin
ing.
PR
OJE
CT
ION
S O
F W
OR
LD P
OP
ULA
TIO
NN
o on
e re
ally
kno
ws
how
larg
e th
e w
orld
'spo
pula
tion
will
be
in th
e fu
ture
. But
we
can
mak
e ed
ucat
ed g
uess
es b
y lo
okin
g at
pas
tan
d pr
esen
t tre
nds
in tw
o of
the
com
pone
nts
of p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
: birt
hs a
nd d
eath
s. T
heth
ird c
ompo
nent
, mig
ratio
n, c
an a
ffect
the
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 8
grow
th o
f ind
ivid
ual c
ount
ries,
but
not
tow
orld
pop
ulat
ion.
The
cha
rt "
Fut
ure
of w
orld
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th"
(at l
eft)
illu
stra
tes
thre
e sc
enar
ios
for
popu
latio
n ch
ange
, dep
endi
ng o
n le
vels
of
fert
ility
. Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n is
pro
ject
ed to
incr
ease
to 7
.8 b
illio
n by
202
5, a
nd to
rea
ch8.
9 bi
llion
by
2050
, acc
ordi
ng to
the
med
ium
scen
ario
whe
re fe
rtili
ty s
tabi
lizes
at 2
.1 c
hil-
dren
per
wom
en. T
his
proj
ectio
n do
es n
ot c
or-
resp
ond
with
the
doub
ling
time
of 5
1 ye
ars
asso
ciat
ed w
ith th
e an
nual
gro
wth
rat
e in
2000
. The
pro
ject
ion
assu
mes
that
the
grow
thra
te w
ill d
rop
slig
htly
by
2020
and
con
tinue
decl
inin
g as
the
cent
ury
prog
ress
es. I
f the
grow
th r
ate
does
fall
and
the
wor
ld p
opul
a-tio
n re
ache
s 11
bill
ion
by 2
100,
the
popu
latio
nw
ill h
ave
doub
led
in a
bout
100
yea
rs.
Bec
ause
mos
t of t
he w
orld
's p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
is li
kely
to c
ontin
ue to
be
in le
ssde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s, A
sia
will
con
tinue
toho
ld th
e m
ajor
ity o
f the
wor
ld's
peo
ple.
Afr
ica
and
Latin
Am
eric
a w
ill g
ain
larg
ersh
ares
than
they
hav
e at
pre
sent
. The
pop
u-la
tion
of th
ese
regi
ons
may
incr
ease
by
100
perc
ent b
y 21
00, a
ccor
ding
to m
oder
ate
pro-
ject
ions
. In
2100
, nea
rly 9
0 pe
rcen
t of w
orld
popu
latio
n co
uld
live
in c
ount
ries
curr
ently
cons
ider
ed le
ss d
evel
oped
, com
pare
d w
ithab
out 8
0 pe
rcen
t tod
ay.
Whe
n co
uld
wor
ld p
opul
atio
nst
op g
row
ing?
Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n w
ill s
top
grow
ing
whe
n th
ebi
rth
rate
equ
als
the
deat
h ra
te; n
o on
ekn
ows
whe
ther
this
will
hap
pen.
Dem
ogra
pher
s us
ually
ass
ume
that
the
birt
h ra
te a
nd th
e de
ath
rate
will
eve
ntua
llyre
ach
equi
libriu
m s
ever
al d
ecad
es a
fter
cou-
ples
ave
rage
two
child
ren
each
. Thi
s tw
o-ch
ildav
erag
e is
cal
led
repl
acem
ent l
evel
fert
ility
,be
caus
e ea
ch c
oupl
e re
plac
es th
emse
lves
inth
e nu
mbe
r of
peo
ple
in a
pop
ulat
ion.
The
tota
l fer
tility
rat
e re
fers
to th
e av
erag
enu
m-
ber
of c
hild
ren
wom
en a
re h
avin
g. W
hen
the
tota
l fer
tility
rat
e is
at r
epla
cem
ent (
or 2
.1ch
ildre
n pe
r fa
mily
), th
e tw
o ch
ildre
n bo
rnes
sent
ially
rep
lace
the
pare
nts
whe
n th
ey d
ie.
The
dec
imal
val
ue a
ccou
nts
for
child
mor
tal-
ity. B
ecau
se s
ome
child
ren
die
befo
re th
eygr
ow u
p to
hav
e th
eir
own
child
ren,
the
aver
-ag
e nu
mbe
r of
chi
ldre
n bo
rn c
an s
till b
esl
ight
ly a
bove
two
and
fert
ility
wou
ld b
eco
n-si
dere
d at
rep
lace
men
t lev
el. T
here
fore
, the
valu
e fo
r re
plac
emen
t lev
el fe
rtili
ty c
ould
be
high
er in
a c
ount
ry w
here
mor
talit
y is
hig
her.
Whi
le n
o on
e kn
ows
exac
tly w
hen
the
popu
latio
n w
ill s
top
grow
ing,
the
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
and
oth
er o
rgan
izat
ions
est
imat
e th
atw
orld
pop
ulat
ion
coul
d co
ntin
ue to
grow
wel
lin
to th
e 22
nd c
entu
ry, r
each
ing
9.8
billi
on b
y21
50. T
hese
out
com
es a
re b
ased
on
the
me-
dium
pro
ject
ions
, whi
ch a
ssum
e (t
o va
ryin
gde
gree
s fo
r di
ffere
nt c
ount
ries)
that
the
dow
nwar
d tr
end
of fe
rtili
ty r
ates
will
con
tinue
and
stab
ilize
at 2
.1 c
hild
ren
per
wom
an. T
hey
also
ass
ume
cont
inue
d m
orta
lity
decl
ines
. If
fert
ility
wer
e to
dec
reas
e at
a m
uch
fast
erpa
ce a
nd s
tabi
lize
at 1
.6 c
hild
ren
per
wom
en,
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n co
uld
stop
gro
win
g m
uch
soon
erby
205
0at 7
.3 b
illio
n. G
iven
that
scen
ario
, the
pop
ulat
ion
wou
ld d
eclin
e to
5.3
billi
on b
y 21
50. O
n th
e ot
her
hand
, slo
wer
decl
ines
in fe
rtili
ty c
ould
lead
to a
glo
bal
popu
latio
n of
10.
7 bi
llion
by
2050
and
16.
2bi
llion
in 2
150,
with
fert
ility
pro
ject
ing
tost
abili
ze a
t 2.5
chi
ldre
n pe
r w
oman
.W
e do
kno
w th
at fu
ture
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th is
inev
itabl
e. B
ut th
e ra
nge
of p
ossi
-bl
e fu
ture
pop
ulat
ion
size
s va
ries
dram
ati-
cally
. Fiv
e pl
ausi
ble
proj
ectio
ns p
ublis
hed
byth
e U
nite
d N
atio
ns le
ad to
out
com
es r
angi
ngfr
om 7
.3 b
illio
n pe
ople
to 1
0.7
billi
on p
eopl
ein
205
0.
0c
TE
RM
SB
irth
rate
(or
cru
de b
irth
rate
)T
he n
umbe
r of
live
birt
hs p
er1,
000
popu
latio
n in
a g
iven
year
. Not
to b
e co
nfus
ed w
ithth
e gr
owth
rat
e.
Dea
th r
ate
(or
crud
e de
ath
rate
) T
he n
umbe
r of
dea
ths
per
1,00
0 po
pula
tion
in a
giv
en y
ear.
Dem
ogra
phic
tran
sitio
n T
hehi
stor
ical
shi
ft of
birt
h an
d de
ath
rate
s fr
om h
igh
to lo
w le
vels
in a
popu
latio
n. T
he d
eclin
e of
mor
-ta
lity
usua
lly p
rece
des
the
decl
ine
in fe
rtili
ty, t
hus
prod
uc-
ing
rapi
d po
pula
tion
grow
thdu
ring
the
tran
sitio
n pe
riod.
Rat
e of
nat
ural
incr
ease
The
rate
at w
hich
a p
opul
atio
n is
incr
easi
ng (
or d
ecre
asin
g) in
agi
ven
year
due
to a
sur
plus
(or
defic
it) o
f birt
hs o
ver
deat
hs,
expr
esse
d as
a p
erce
ntag
e of
the
base
pop
ulat
ion.
Tot
al fe
rtili
ty r
ate
(TF
R)
The
num
ber
of c
hild
ren
wom
en a
reha
ving
toda
y. T
he a
vera
ge n
um-
ber
of c
hild
ren
that
wou
ld b
ebo
rn a
live
to a
wom
en d
urin
gim
ehe
r ch
ildbe
arin
g ye
ars
if sh
eco
nfor
med
to th
e ag
e-sp
ecifi
cfe
rtili
ty r
ates
of a
giv
en y
ear.
J
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 9
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 10
RE
GIO
NA
L O
RIG
INS
OF
IMM
IGR
AN
TS
TO
TH
E U
NIT
ED
ST
AT
ES
, SE
LEC
TE
D Y
EA
RS
4,10
7,20
9
1,03
5,03
9
3,32
1,67
7
7,33
8,06
27,
605,
068
1901
-191
019
21-1
930
1941
-195
019
61-1
970
1981
-199
019
91-1
998
Oth
erE
urop
eA
sia
Sou
rce:
Imm
igra
tion
and
Nat
ural
izat
ion
Ser
vice
, 199
8 S
tatis
tical
Yea
rboo
k.
Can
ada
Latin
Am
eric
a
2627
Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n gr
ows
as a
res
ult
of n
atur
al in
crea
sebe
caus
e th
ere
are
mor
ebi
rths
than
dea
ths.
In a
dditi
on to
nat
ural
`incr
ease
, cou
ntry
or
regi
onal
pop
ulat
ions
can
grow
from
Mig
ratio
n._N
et m
igra
tion
is th
edi
ffere
nce
betw
een
the
num
ber
of p
erso
nsen
terin
g a
geog
raph
ic a
rea
(imm
igra
nts)
' and
thos
e le
avin
g (e
mig
rant
s). O
ver
time,
mig
ra-
tion
cont
ribut
es m
ore
than
just
the
initi
alnu
mbe
r of
peo
ple
mov
ing
into
an
area
,be
caus
e th
e ch
ildre
n an
d gr
andc
hild
ren
born
to th
e im
mig
rant
pop
ulat
ion
add
seve
ral
times
the
orig
inal
num
ber
to th
e po
pula
tion
base
. The
re is
als
o an
incr
ease
in th
e nu
mbe
rof
dea
ths
as a
res
ult o
f in-
mig
ratio
n.M
ost A
mer
ican
s ar
e im
mig
rant
s or
desc
enda
nts
of im
mig
rant
s w
ho a
rriv
ed h
ere
over
the
past
200
yea
rs. O
nly
a sm
all f
ract
ion
of th
e po
pula
tion
is r
elat
ed to
the
Am
eric
anIn
dian
s w
ho w
ere
here
whe
n th
e fir
stE
urop
ean
settl
ers
arriv
ed in
the
1600
s.A
ustr
alia
and
Bra
zil a
re o
ther
cou
ntrie
sw
hose
cur
rent
pop
ulat
ions
con
sist
prim
arily
of d
esce
ndan
ts o
f per
sons
who
imm
igra
ted
ther
e du
ring
the
past
two
cent
urie
s.
INT
ER
NA
TIO
NA
L M
IGR
AT
ION
Inte
rnat
iona
l mig
ratio
n is
at a
n al
l-tim
e hi
ghin
term
s of
abs
olut
e nu
mbe
rs. A
bout
- 14
5-m
il--li
on-p
eopl
e-liv
ed o
utsi
de th
eir
nativ
e co
un-
trie
s in
the
mid
-199
0s, a
nd th
e nu
mbe
r is
incr
easi
ng b
y an
ywhe
re fr
om 2
mill
ion
to 4
mill
ion
each
yea
r.
48ae
i
In th
e m
id-1
990s
, the
larg
est i
mm
igra
tion
flow
s w
ere
from
Lat
in A
mer
ica
and
Asi
a in
toN
orth
Am
eric
a, a
nd fr
om E
aste
rn E
urop
e, th
eco
untr
ies
of th
e fo
rmer
Sov
iet U
nion
, and
Nor
th A
fric
a in
to N
orth
ern
and
Wes
tern
Eur
ope.
The
Mid
dle
Eas
t dra
ws
mig
rant
sfr
om A
fric
a an
d A
sia
and
host
s m
illio
ns o
fre
fuge
es-f
rom
with
in th
e re
gion
. The
re is
cons
ider
able
mig
ratio
n w
ithin
Asi
a, A
fric
a,an
d La
tin A
mer
ica.
WH
Y P
EO
PLE
MO
VE
Mos
t peo
ple
mov
e fo
r ec
onom
ic r
easo
ns, b
utso
me
mig
rate
to e
scap
e po
litic
al o
r re
ligio
uspe
rsec
utio
n or
sim
ply
to fu
lfill
a pe
rson
aldr
eam
. Som
e ex
pert
s di
vide
the
man
y re
a-so
ns p
eopl
e le
ave
thei
r ho
mes
for
a ne
w o
nein
to p
ush
and
pull
fact
ors.
Pus
h fa
ctor
s m
ight
be w
ides
prea
d un
empl
oym
ent,
lack
of f
arm
-la
nd, f
amin
e, o
r w
ar a
t hom
e. T
he G
reat
Dep
ress
ion
(192
9-19
39)
is a
goo
d ex
ampl
e of
a pu
sh fa
ctor
, as
hard
tim
es e
ncou
rage
dm
ore
resi
dent
s to
leav
e th
e U
nite
d S
tate
sth
an m
ove
in. I
n th
e 19
80s
and
1990
s, h
un-
dred
s of
thou
sand
s of
Afr
ican
s w
ere
push
edou
t of t
heir
hom
elan
ds to
nei
ghbo
ring
coun
-tr
ies
beca
use
of fa
min
e an
d ci
vil w
ar.
Fac
tors
that
attr
act m
igra
nts
incl
ude
a--
boom
ing
econ
omy,
favo
rabl
e im
mig
ratio
nla
ws,
or
free
agr
icul
tura
l lan
d in
the
area
tow
hich
the
mig
rant
is m
ovin
g. T
he, l
abor
shor
tage
in J
apan
is p
ullin
g re
cord
num
bers
of le
gal a
nd il
lega
l im
mig
rant
s to
fill
the
low
-st
atus
, low
-pay
ing,
or
dang
erou
s jo
bs th
at
Japa
nese
nat
ives
rej
ect.
The
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
estim
ates
that
to k
eep
a w
orki
ng p
opul
atio
nof
87
mill
ion
thro
ugh
2050
, Jap
an w
ould
have
to a
ccep
t 609
,000
imm
igra
nts
a ye
ar.
Bet
wee
n 19
90 a
nd 1
999,
the
num
ber
of le
gal
fore
igne
rs in
crea
sed
from
1.1
mill
ion
to 1
.6m
illio
n. E
stim
ates
of i
llega
l mig
rant
s in
Jap
anra
nge
from
150
,000
to 3
00,0
00.
The
maj
ority
of m
igra
nts
to th
e U
nite
dS
tate
s in
the
past
200
yea
rs w
ere
Eur
opea
n.D
urin
g th
e fir
st d
ecad
e of
this
cen
tury
nea
rly9
mill
ion
imm
igra
nts
ente
red
this
cou
ntry
,an
d m
ore
than
90
perc
ent w
ere
from
Eur
ope
(see
cha
rt, "
Reg
iona
l orig
ins
of im
mig
rant
s to
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes,
sel
ecte
d ye
ars,
" p.
10)
. By
mid
-cen
tury
, jus
t hal
f of t
he m
igra
nts
wer
efr
om. E
urop
e. T
he to
tal n
umbe
r of
imm
i-gr
ants
fell
to a
roun
d 1
mill
ion
in th
e 19
40s.
In th
e 19
80s
the
num
ber
of m
igra
nts
incr
ease
d to
leve
ls s
imila
r to
thos
e at
the
turn
of t
he c
entu
ry. B
ut 8
4 pe
rcen
t of t
hese
mig
rant
s w
ere
from
Lat
in A
mer
ica
and
Asi
a,an
d ju
st 1
0 pe
rcen
t wer
e fr
om E
urop
e. T
hevo
lum
e of
lega
l im
mig
ratio
n an
d th
e pr
eva-
lenc
e of
mig
rant
s fr
om A
sia
and
Latin
Am
eric
a w
ill c
ontin
ue in
the
new
cen
tury
.T
he o
rigin
s of
imm
igra
nts
chan
ge o
ver
time,
as
do th
eir
num
bers
and
the
effe
ct th
atth
ey h
ave
on U
.S. p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
.A
ccor
ding
to o
ne e
stim
ate,
abo
ut 4
2 pe
rcen
tof
the
U.S
. pop
ulat
ion
in 1
900
resu
lted
from
imm
igra
tion
durin
g th
e pr
eced
ing
cent
ury.
Imm
igra
tion
was
an
even
gre
ater
fact
or in
grow
th b
etw
een
1900
and
195
0, w
hen
200
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 11
Per
cent
age
of U
.S. p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
from
mig
ratio
n,19
00-1
999
ao
m N
0
-ai
0
0a! N
ai N
Zigrn M
a% 0 131
rn
N 0 N rn
rn 0 cn
0 a%
0 at
rn 0 0 ao al
0rn co 0 co al
C.' 0 cr,
Sou
rce:
U.S
. Cen
sus
Bur
eau,
Cur
rent
Pop
ulat
ion
Rep
orts
.
30
mill
ion
peop
le e
nter
ed th
e co
untr
y. N
atur
alin
crea
se a
dded
an
aver
age
of 1
per
cent
of
the
popu
latio
n in
crea
se p
er y
ear
durin
g th
atpe
riod.
At t
hat r
ate
the
popu
latio
n w
ould
have
dou
bled
in a
bout
70
year
s. B
ut it
took
only
50
year
s to
dou
ble.
Mig
ratio
n st
eppe
dup
the
doub
ling
by 2
0 ye
ars
(see
cha
rt,
"Per
cent
age
of U
.S. p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
from
mig
ratio
n,"
at le
ft).
The
vol
ume
of le
gal m
igra
tion
has
fluct
u-at
ed s
ince
the
1930
s. Im
mig
ratio
n ha
sac
coun
ted
for
an in
crea
sing
por
tion
of p
opu-
latio
n gr
owth
as
Am
eric
an w
omen
beg
anha
ving
few
er c
hild
ren.
Tod
ay o
ne-t
hird
of
the
U.S
. pop
ulat
ion
grow
th is
from
net
mig
ratio
n. T
he U
.S. C
ensu
s B
urea
u pr
ojec
tsth
at th
e U
.S. p
opul
atio
n w
ill r
each
403,
687,
000
by 2
050.
Of t
his
proj
ecte
dgr
owth
, 36
perc
ent m
ay r
esul
t fro
m im
mig
ra-
tion,
with
46,
691,
756
new
imm
igra
nts
bein
gad
ded
in th
e ne
xt 5
0 ye
ars.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 12
GO
VE
RN
ME
NT
PO
LIC
IES
Of t
he th
ree
com
pone
nts
of p
opul
atio
nch
ange
, mig
ratio
n is
the
mos
t diff
icul
t com
-po
nent
to p
redi
ct a
nd is
mos
t affe
cted
by
gove
rnm
ent p
olic
ies
and
gove
rnm
ent p
oli-
cies
. Bec
ause
nat
ions
can
con
trol
thei
r bo
r-de
rs, t
hey
may
reg
ulat
e th
e flo
w o
f leg
alim
mig
rant
s. T
he o
il-pr
oduc
ing
coun
trie
s in
the
Mid
dle
Eas
t offe
red
finan
cial
ince
ntiv
esto
attr
act i
mm
igra
nts,
just
as
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
and
Aus
tral
ia o
nce
offe
red
free
land
.In
199
0, J
apan
per
mitt
ed e
mpl
oym
ent r
ight
san
d re
side
nce
for
ethn
ic J
apan
ese
from
Lat
inA
mer
ica.
In 1
998,
660
,477
imm
igra
nts
wer
ead
mitt
ed le
gally
to th
e U
nite
d S
tate
s. M
any
fore
igne
rs a
lso
ente
r th
e co
untr
y ill
egal
lyea
ch y
ear.
The
exa
ct n
umbe
r of
per
sons
mig
ratin
g ill
egal
ly to
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
isun
know
n, b
ut e
stim
ates
ran
ge fr
om 1
00,0
00to
500
,000
per
yea
r.
31
How
den
sely
pop
ulat
ed is
the
plan
et?
The
wor
ld's
maj
or r
egio
ns n
ot o
nly
vary
inpo
pula
tion
size
, the
y al
so v
ary
in te
rms
ofpo
pula
tion
dens
ityth
e nu
mbe
r of
peo
ple
per
squa
re m
ile (
or o
ther
uni
t of l
and
area
).T
he m
ost d
ense
ly s
ettle
d re
gion
is W
este
rnE
urop
e, w
ith 4
29 in
habi
tant
s pe
r sq
uare
mile
.T
he C
arib
bean
ran
ks s
econ
d, w
ith 4
01 p
eopl
epe
r sq
uare
mile
. The
leas
t den
sely
set
tled
regi
on, O
cean
ia, h
as n
ine
peop
le p
er s
quar
em
ileab
out t
he s
ame
as C
anad
a. T
he p
opul
a-tio
n de
nsity
of t
he U
nite
d S
tate
s is
74
(see
tabl
e, "
Pop
ulat
ion
dens
ities
," a
t rig
ht).
Whi
le p
opul
atio
n de
nsiti
es v
ary
from
regi
on to
reg
ion,
they
act
ually
tell
us li
ttle
abou
t whe
re p
eopl
e liv
e, th
e av
aila
bilit
y of
reso
urce
s, o
r th
e st
anda
rd o
f liv
ing
in a
par
-tic
ular
reg
ion.
In A
ustr
alia
, for
exa
mpl
e, o
ver-
all p
opul
atio
n de
nsity
is v
ery
low
six
peop
lepe
r sq
uare
mile
. How
ever
, 85
perc
ent o
f the
popu
latio
n liv
es in
urb
an a
reas
whe
re d
ensi
-tie
s ar
e m
uch
high
er. T
wen
ty-o
ne p
erce
nt o
fA
ustr
alia
ns r
esid
e in
Syd
ney,
whe
re th
e de
n-si
ty is
10,
437
peop
le p
er s
quar
e m
ile.
Pop
ulat
ion
dens
ity, p
artic
ular
ly in
urb
an-
ized
are
as, d
oes
play
a r
ole
in e
nviro
nmen
tal
degr
adat
ion.
Som
e an
alys
ts s
pecu
late
that
high
leve
ls o
f pop
ulat
ion
dens
ity c
an tr
igge
ren
viro
nmen
tal d
egra
datio
n or
soc
ially
dis
rup-
tive
even
ts s
uch
as m
ass
mig
ratio
n or
civ
ilvi
olen
ce.
But
pop
ulat
ion
dens
ity a
lone
doe
s no
tde
term
ine
wel
l-bei
ng. A
den
sely
pop
ulat
edS
inga
pore
has
a p
er c
apita
gro
ss n
atio
nal
prod
uct t
hat i
s ne
arly
US
$30,
170,
com
pare
dto
spa
rsel
y po
pula
ted
Som
alia
, whi
ch c
ontin
u-al
ly fa
ces
seve
re fo
od s
hort
ages
, des
pite
ade
nsity
of 2
9 pe
ople
per
squ
are
mile
.
TE
RM
SE
mig
ratio
n T
he p
roce
ss o
fle
avin
g on
e co
untr
y to
take
up
perm
anen
t or
sem
iper
man
ent
resi
denc
e in
ano
ther
.
Imm
igra
tion
The
pro
cess
of
ente
ring
one
coun
try
from
anot
her
to ta
ke u
p pe
rman
ent
or s
emip
erm
anen
t res
iden
ce.
Net
mig
ratio
n T
he n
et e
ffect
of im
mig
ratio
n an
d em
igra
tion
on a
n ar
ea's
pop
ulat
ion
in a
give
n tim
e pe
riod,
exp
ress
ed a
san
incr
ease
or
decr
ease
.
Pus
h-pu
ll fa
ctor
s A
mig
ratio
nth
eory
that
sug
gest
s th
at c
ir-cu
mst
ance
s at
the
plac
e of
ori-
gin
(suc
h as
pov
erty
and
une
m-
ploy
men
t) r
epel
or
push
peo
ple
out o
f tha
t pla
ce to
oth
er p
lace
sth
at e
xert
a p
ositi
ve a
ttrac
tion
or p
ull (
such
as
a hi
gh s
tand
ard
of li
ving
or
job
oppo
rtun
ities
).
3
Pop
ulat
ion
dens
ities
, 200
0R
egio
nP
op./S
q. m
ileW
orld
117
Mor
e de
velo
ped
coun
trie
s60
Less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
153
Afr
ica
68
Sub
-Sah
aran
Afr
ica
78
Nor
ther
n A
fric
a53
Wes
tern
Afr
ica
99
Eas
tern
Afr
ica
100
Mid
dle
Afr
ica
38
Sou
ther
n A
fric
a48
Nor
th A
mer
ica
40
Latin
Am
eric
a/C
arib
bean
65
Cen
tral
Am
eric
a14
5
Car
ibbe
an40
1
Sou
th A
mer
ica
50
Asi
a30
0
Wes
tern
Asi
a10
4
Sou
th C
entr
al A
sia
355
Sou
thea
st A
sia
304
Eas
t Asi
a32
8
Eur
ope
82
Nor
ther
n E
urop
e14
2
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
429
Eas
tern
Eur
ope
42
Sou
ther
n E
urop
e28
5
Oce
ania
9
Sou
rce:
Pop
ulat
ion
Ref
eren
ce B
urea
u, 2
000
Wor
ldP
opul
atio
n D
ata
She
et.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 13
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 14
TH
RE
E P
AT
TE
RN
S O
F P
OP
ULA
TIO
N C
HA
NG
E, 2
000
Rap
id g
row
thD
emoc
ratic
Rep
ublic
of C
ongo
Age
80+
75-7
970
-74
65-6
960
-64
55-5
9m
ale
fem
ale
50-5
4m
ale
45-5
940
-44
35-3
930
-34
25-2
920
-24
15-1
910
-14
5-9
0-4
III10
8 6
4 2
02
4 6
8 10
perc
ent
Slo
w g
row
thU
nite
d S
tate
sN
egat
ive
grow
thG
erm
any
Yea
r of
birt
hB
efor
e 19
2019
20-2
419
25-2
919
30-3
419
35-3
919
40-4
4fe
mal
e19
45-4
9m
ale
fem
ale
1950
-54
1955
-59
1960
-64
1965
-69
1970
-74
1975
-79
1980
-84
1985
-89
1990
-94
1995
-99
4 2
02
44
20
2 4
perc
ent
perc
ent
Sou
rce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
, Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n P
rosp
ects
, The
199
8 R
evis
ion.
3433
too
titie
fioN
CH
AN
GE
Asi
de fr
om th
e to
tal s
ize,
the
mos
tim
port
ant d
emog
raph
ic c
hara
cter
istic
of a
popu
latio
n is
its
age
and
sex
stru
ctur
e, o
r th
epr
opor
tion
of p
eopl
e at
eac
h ag
e, b
y se
x. T
heag
e-se
x st
ruct
ure
dete
rmin
es p
oten
tial f
orfu
ture
gro
wth
of s
peci
fic-a
ge g
roup
s, a
s w
ell
as th
e to
tal p
opul
atio
n. F
or th
ese
reas
ons,
the-
age
stru
ctur
e ha
s si
gnifi
cant
gov
ernm
ent p
oli-
cy im
plic
atio
ns. A
pop
ulat
ion
of y
oung
peo
ple
need
s a
suffi
cien
t num
ber
of s
choo
ls a
nd,
late
r, e
noug
h jo
bs to
acc
omm
odat
e th
em.
Cou
ntrie
s w
ith a
larg
e pr
opor
tion
of o
lder
peop
le m
ust d
evel
op r
etire
men
t sys
tem
s an
dm
edic
al fa
cilit
ies
to s
erve
them
. The
refo
re,
as a
pop
ulat
ion
ages
, nee
ds c
hang
e fr
omch
ildca
re a
nd s
choo
ls to
jobs
, hou
sing
, and
med
ical
car
e.
PO
PU
LAT
ION
PY
RA
MID
ST
he a
ge-s
ex s
truc
ture
of a
cou
ntry
can
be
stud
ied
thro
ugh
popu
latio
n py
ram
ids.
The
over
all s
hape
of t
he p
yram
id in
dica
tes
the
pote
ntia
l for
futu
re g
row
th. T
he fo
ur r
epre
-se
ntat
ions
of p
opul
atio
n ag
e-se
x st
ruct
ure
onp.
16
prov
ide
an o
vera
ll ex
ampl
e of
wha
t apy
ram
id fo
r di
ffere
nt le
vels
of p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
wou
ld lo
ok li
kera
pid
grow
th, s
low
grow
th, z
ero
grow
th, a
nd n
egat
ive
grow
th.
The
hor
izon
tal b
ars
show
the
perc
enta
ge (
or-
in s
ome
case
s th
e ac
tual
num
bers
) of
mal
esan
d fe
mal
es in
eac
h ag
e gr
oup.
The
cou
ntry
pyr
amid
s sh
own
on th
e ch
art
"Thr
ee p
atte
rns
of p
opul
atio
n ch
ange
"(p
. 14)
, als
o re
pres
ent d
iffer
ent s
tage
s of
3C
popu
latio
n gr
owth
goi
ng o
n to
day.
The
firs
tpy
ram
id, r
epre
sent
ing
the
popu
latio
n of
the
Dem
ocra
tic R
epub
lic o
f Con
go, w
ith it
s w
ide
base
and
nar
row
top,
is ty
pica
l of a
you
ngpo
pula
tion.
Thi
s sh
ape
is th
e re
sult
of h
igh
birt
h ra
tes
that
feed
mor
e an
d m
ore
peop
lein
to th
e lo
wes
t bar
s an
d in
turn
shr
ink
the
rela
tive-
prop
ortio
n at
the
olde
st a
ges.
As
the
deat
h ra
te d
eclin
e-S
,-m
ore
peop
le s
urvi
ve to
the
repr
oduc
tive
ages
and
bey
o-nd
:The
birt
hsth
ey h
ave
furt
her
wid
en th
e ba
se o
f the
pyr
a-m
id. T
his
shap
e is
com
mon
in m
any
less
dev
el-
oped
cou
ntrie
s th
at h
ave
expe
rienc
edim
prov
emen
ts in
life
exp
ecta
ncy
but c
ontin
ueto
hav
e hi
gh b
irth
rate
s. It
ref
lect
s bo
th a
his
-to
ry o
f rap
id p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
and
the
pote
ntia
l for
futu
re r
apid
gro
wth
.T
he s
econ
d ag
e-se
x py
ram
id is
typi
cal o
f asl
owly
gro
win
g po
pula
tion.
The
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
is a
n ex
ampl
e of
a c
ount
ry in
slo
w g
row
th.
The
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
has
had
decl
inin
g fe
rtili
tyan
d m
orta
lity
rate
s fo
r m
ost o
f thi
s ce
ntur
y.W
ith lo
wer
fert
ility
, few
er p
eopl
e ha
veen
tere
d th
e lo
wes
t bar
s of
the
pyra
mid
, and
as li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y ha
s in
crea
sed,
a g
reat
erpe
rcen
tage
of t
he "
birt
hs"
have
sur
vive
d un
tilol
d ag
e. A
s a
resu
lt, th
e po
pula
tion
has
been
agin
g, m
eani
ng th
at th
e pr
opor
tion
of o
lder
pers
ons
in th
e po
pula
tion
has
been
gro
win
g.T
his
tren
d w
as in
terr
upte
d by
the
post
war
baby
boo
m, 1
946-
1964
, whe
n bi
rth
rate
scl
imbe
d ag
ain.
(T
he b
ulge
of t
he b
aby-
boom
gene
ratio
n ca
n be
see
n in
the
pyra
mid
for
ages
35-
54 in
200
0.)
Afte
r 19
64, b
irth
rate
s
cont
inue
d th
eir
dow
nwar
d tr
end
until
the
late
197
0s. A
s th
e la
st m
embe
rs o
f the
bab
ybo
om a
ppro
ache
d th
eir
child
bear
ing
year
sdu
ring
the
1980
s, th
e nu
mbe
r of
birt
hs r
ose
agai
n, p
eaki
ng in
199
0. T
hese
chi
ldre
n, th
eyo
unge
st g
ener
atio
n, a
re r
epre
sent
ed b
y th
esl
ight
ly w
iden
ing
base
of t
he p
yram
id. E
ven
thou
gh th
e nu
mbe
r of
birt
hs p
er w
oman
islo
wer
than
eve
r be
fore
, the
pop
ulat
ion
cont
inue
s to
gro
w b
ecau
se o
f the
chi
ldre
nan
d gr
andc
hild
ren
of th
e hu
ge b
aby-
boom
gene
ratio
n.A
few
cou
ntrie
s ha
ve r
each
ed z
ero
popu
-la
tion
grow
th o
r ar
e ex
perie
ncin
g ne
gativ
egr
owth
bec
ause
of l
ow b
irth
rate
s an
d an
old
age
stru
ctur
e co
uple
d w
ith m
inim
al n
etm
igra
tion.
Whi
le G
erm
any'
s de
ath
rate
exce
eds
its b
irth
rate
, its
pop
ulat
ion
cont
inue
sto
gro
w b
ecau
se o
f net
mig
ratio
n. P
yram
ids
in w
hich
the
prop
ortio
ns o
f the
pop
ulat
ion
are
fairl
y ev
enly
dis
trib
uted
am
ong
all a
gegr
oups
are
rep
rese
ntat
ive
of m
any
high
lyin
dust
rializ
ed s
ocie
ties.
Ger
man
y's
old
popu
la-
tion
refle
cts
an e
xten
ded
perio
d of
low
birt
han
d de
ath
rate
s. W
hile
few
er c
hild
ren
have
been
bor
n, m
ost o
f tho
se b
orn
surv
ive
thro
ugh
to o
ld a
ge. T
he n
et e
ffect
is z
ero
grow
th-o
r no
nat
ural
incr
ease
. Ger
man
y's
pyra
mid
als
o sh
ows
the
effe
ct o
f hig
her
mor
-ta
lity
amon
g m
ales
. In
an in
dust
rializ
ed s
oci-
ety,
fem
ales
gen
eral
ly o
utnu
mbe
r m
ales
afte
rag
e 40
. Thi
s tr
end
is p
artic
ular
ly e
vide
nt in
Ger
man
y's
olde
st a
ge g
roup
.
37H
uman
Pop
ulat
ion:
Fun
dam
enta
ls o
f Gro
wth
and
Cha
nge
15
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 16
Age
-sex
str
uctu
res
in tr
ansi
tion
mal
e=
fem
ale
Rap
id g
row
th
fem
ale
mal
e
Slo
w g
row
th
fem
ale
Zer
o gr
owth
mal
efe
mal
e
Neg
ativ
e gr
owth
Whi
le b
irth
and
deat
h ra
tes
usua
lly d
eter
-m
ine
the
basi
c py
ram
id s
hape
, mig
ratio
n al
soaf
fect
s it.
Typ
ical
ly, m
ost m
igra
nts
are
in th
ew
orki
ng a
ges,
and
ofte
n m
ore
mal
es th
anfe
mal
es m
igra
te a
cros
s na
tiona
l bor
ders
. In
som
e M
iddl
e E
aste
rn c
ount
ries
a la
rge
num
-be
r of
men
mig
rate
d to
wor
k in
the
oil f
ield
s,w
hich
cau
sed
a bu
lge
in o
ne s
ide
of th
e py
ra-
38
mid
, whi
le it
took
a "
bite
" ou
t of t
he p
yram
idof
som
e of
the
coun
trie
s fr
om w
hich
they
cam
e. Sho
rt-t
erm
fluc
tuat
ions
in b
irth
and
deat
hra
tes
that
pro
duce
unu
sual
bite
s or
bul
ges
inpo
pula
tion
pyra
mid
s, s
uch
as th
e ba
by b
oom
,of
ten
can
be tr
aced
to s
uch
hist
oric
al e
vent
sas
war
s, e
pide
mic
s, e
cono
mic
boo
ms,
or
depr
essi
ons.
The
dec
line
in th
e bi
rth
rate
dur
-in
g th
e G
reat
Dep
ress
ion
caus
ed a
sm
all b
itein
the
U.S
. pyr
amid
for
the
grou
p bo
rnbe
twee
n 19
30 a
nd 1
934.
Wor
ld W
ars
I and
IIca
used
a d
efic
it of
old
er m
en in
Ger
man
y. T
heim
pact
of t
hese
eve
nts
emph
asiz
es th
e in
ter-
rela
tions
hips
am
ong
popu
latio
n ch
ange
and
econ
omic
, soc
ial,
polit
ical
, and
hea
lth fa
ctor
s.
39
Why
doe
s it
take
so lo
ng to
slo
w o
r st
op p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
?G
row
th th
roug
h na
tura
l inc
reas
e oc
curs
whe
nth
e bi
rth
rate
exc
eeds
the
deat
h ra
te. F
orex
ampl
e, th
e U
.S. b
irth
rate
in 1
999
was
14
birt
hs p
er 1
,000
peo
ple
and
the
deat
h ra
tew
as9,
yie
ldin
g a
net i
ncre
ase
of fi
ve p
erso
ns fo
rev
ery
1,00
0 pe
rson
s in
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes,
or
appr
oxim
atel
y 1.
6 m
illio
n ad
ditio
nal p
erso
nsfo
r th
at y
ear.
Thi
s ga
p oc
curr
ed in
spi
te o
fa
very
sm
all a
vera
ge fa
mily
siz
e m
easu
red
by th
eto
tal f
ertil
ity r
atea
n es
timat
e of
the
num
ber
of b
irths
to w
omen
dur
ing
thei
r lif
etim
es.
The
rat
e of
nat
ural
incr
ease
of a
pop
ula-
tion
depe
nds
on b
irth
and
deat
h ra
tes,
whi
char
e st
rong
ly in
fluen
ced
by th
e po
pula
tion
age
stru
ctur
e. B
irths
occ
ur p
rimar
ily to
peo
ple
inth
e yo
unge
r-ad
ult a
ge g
roup
s. If
ther
e ar
eco
mpa
rativ
ely
mor
e yo
ung
adul
ts th
an o
lder
adul
ts w
here
mor
talit
y is
hig
hest
, the
nev
enat
rep
lace
men
t fer
tility
leve
ls (
whe
n ea
ch
wom
an h
as a
bout
an
aver
age
of tw
o ch
il-dr
en)
ther
e w
ill b
e m
ore
birt
hs th
an d
eath
s.H
ence
, a r
elat
ivel
y la
rge
num
ber
of c
oupl
esea
ch h
avin
g on
e or
two
child
ren
can
still
pro
-du
ce a
larg
e ex
cess
of b
irths
. Thi
s ph
enom
e-no
n is
kno
wn
as p
opul
atio
n m
omen
tum
.In
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes,
birt
h ra
tes
are
high
-er
than
dea
th r
ates
at p
rese
nt, p
artly
due
toth
e la
rge
size
of t
he b
aby-
boom
gen
erat
ion
(who
are
stil
l in
thei
r re
prod
uctiv
e ye
ars)
.E
ven
thou
gh b
aby-
boom
cou
ples
are
hav
ing
smal
l fam
ilies
abou
t tw
o ch
ildre
n on
ave
r-ag
ebirt
hs to
this
gro
up s
till e
xcee
d th
enu
mbe
r of
dea
ths
in a
ll ag
e gr
oups
.
J
The
mom
entu
m o
f pop
ulat
ion
grow
th in
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
will
onl
y be
slo
wed
whe
n th
e la
rge
num
ber
of y
oung
adu
ltsre
sulti
ng fr
om p
revi
ous
high
fert
ility
hav
epa
ssed
out
of t
he c
hild
bear
ing
year
s an
da
succ
eedi
ng s
mal
ler
gene
ratio
n re
prod
uces
at
repl
acem
ent l
evel
fert
ility
. Thi
s m
omen
tum
isve
ry p
rono
unce
d in
Chi
na, w
here
wom
en h
ave
abou
t tw
o ch
ildre
n, b
ut th
e nu
mbe
r of
wom
en h
avin
g ch
ildre
n is
now
muc
h la
rger
than
in th
e pr
evio
us g
ener
atio
n. T
hus,
even
thou
gh it
has
rea
ched
rep
lace
men
t lev
elfe
rtili
ty, C
hina
's p
opul
atio
n co
ntin
ues
togr
ow.
TE
RM
SA
ge-s
ex s
truc
ture
The
com
po-
sitio
n of
a p
opul
atio
n as
det
er-
min
ed b
y th
e nu
mbe
r or
prop
ortio
n of
mal
es a
ndfe
mal
es in
eac
h ag
e ca
tego
ry.
The
age
-sex
str
uctu
re o
f a p
opu-
latio
n is
the
cum
ulat
ive
resu
lt of
past
tren
ds in
fert
ility
, mor
talit
y,an
d m
igra
tion.
Info
rmat
ion
onag
e-se
x co
mpo
sitio
n is
ess
entia
lfo
r th
e de
scrip
tion
and
anal
ysis
of m
any
othe
r ty
pes
of d
emo-
grap
hic
data
.
Bab
y bo
om A
dra
mat
icin
crea
se in
fert
ility
rat
es a
nd in
the
abso
lute
num
ber
of b
irths
.In
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
this
occ
ured
durin
g th
e pe
riod
follo
win
gW
orld
War
II (
1946
-196
4).
Pop
ulat
ion
pyra
mid
A b
arch
art,
arra
nged
ver
tical
ly, t
hat
show
s th
e di
strib
utio
n of
a p
opu-
latio
n by
age
and
sex
. By
conv
en-
tion,
the
youn
ger
ages
are
at t
hebo
ttom
, with
mal
es o
n th
e le
ftan
d fe
mal
es o
n th
e rig
ht.
Zer
o po
pula
tion
grow
th A
popu
latio
n in
equ
ilibr
ium
, with
a gr
owth
rat
e of
zer
o, a
chie
ved
whe
n bi
rths
plu
s im
mig
ratio
neq
ual d
eath
s pl
us e
mig
ratio
n.Z
ero
grow
th is
not
to b
e co
n-fu
sed
with
rep
lace
men
t lev
elfe
rtili
ty.
L
41
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 17
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 18
LAR
GE
ST
UR
BA
N A
GG
LOM
ER
AT
ION
S, 1
950,
200
0, 2
015
t'.
0)
)(C
e°1.?y
5'
®I
®.
oo/
c"
\op
11V
b\®
0.
Siz
e of
urb
an p
opul
atio
no
5 m
illio
n an
d ov
er s
ince
195
0
5 m
illio
n an
d ov
er s
ince
200
0
O 5
mill
ion
and
over
in 2
015
(pro
ject
ed)
Sou
rce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
, Wor
ld U
rban
izat
ion
Pro
spec
ts, T
he 1
999
Rev
isio
n.
.s4
1
9
aftE
ditil
iAT
ION
Thr
ough
mos
t of h
isto
ry, t
hehu
man
pop
ulat
ion
has
lived
a r
ural
life
styl
e,de
pend
ent o
n ag
ricul
ture
and
hun
ting
for
surv
ival
. In
1800
, onl
y 3
perc
ent o
f the
wor
ld's
pop
tilat
ion_
lived
in u
rban
are
as. B
y19
00, a
lmos
t 14
perc
ent w
ere
urba
nite
s,al
thou
gh o
nly
12 c
ities
had
1 m
illio
n or
mor
e --
inha
bita
nts.
In 1
950,
30
perc
ent o
f the
wor
ld's
pop
ulat
ion
resi
ded
in u
rban
cen
ters
.T
he n
umbe
r of
citi
es w
ith o
ver
1 m
illio
n pe
r-so
ns h
ad g
row
n to
83.
The
wor
ld h
as e
xper
ienc
ed u
npre
cede
nt-
ed u
rban
gro
wth
in r
ecen
t dec
ades
. In
2000
,ab
out 4
7 pe
rcen
t of t
he w
orld
's p
opul
atio
nliv
ed in
urb
an a
reas
, abo
ut 2
.8 b
illio
n. T
here
are
411
citie
s ov
er 1
mill
ion.
Mor
e de
velo
ped
natio
ns a
re a
bout
76
perc
ent u
rban
, whi
le 4
0pe
rcen
t of r
esid
ents
of l
ess
deve
lope
d co
un-
trie
s liv
e in
urb
an a
reas
. How
ever
, urb
aniz
a-tio
n is
occ
urrin
g ra
pidl
y in
man
y le
ssde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s. It
is e
xpec
ted
that
60
perc
ent o
f the
wor
ld p
opul
atio
n w
ill b
eur
ban
by 2
030,
and
that
mos
t urb
an g
row
thw
ill o
ccur
in le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntrie
s.W
hat i
s an
urb
an a
rea?
An
urba
n ar
eam
ay b
e de
fined
by
the
num
ber
of r
esid
ents
,th
e po
pula
tion
dens
ity, t
he p
erce
nt o
f per
-so
ns n
ot d
epen
dent
upo
n ag
ricul
ture
, or
the
prov
isio
n of
suc
h pu
blic
util
ities
and
ser
vice
sas
ele
ctric
ity a
nd e
duca
tion.
Som
e co
untr
ies
defin
e an
y pl
ace
with
a p
opul
atio
n of
2,5
00or
mor
e as
urb
an; o
ther
s se
t a m
inim
um o
f20
,000
. The
re a
re n
o un
iver
sal s
tand
ards
, and
gene
rally
eac
h co
untr
y de
velo
ps it
s ow
n se
t
4 4
Gro
wth
of u
rban
agg
lom
erat
ions
, 195
0-20
15
Pop
ulat
ion
(in m
illio
ns)
I1
1950
1970
2000
2015
25 20 15 10 5
111 C
airo
,E
gypt
Lond
onE
ngla
ndN
ew Y
ork,
US
AM
exic
oC
ity,
Mex
ico
nLa
gos,
Nig
eria
Sha
ngha
i, B
omba
y, S
ao P
aolo
, Tok
yo,
Chi
naIn
dia
Bra
zil
Japa
n
Sou
rce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
, Wor
ld U
rban
izat
ion
Pro
spec
ts, T
he 1
999
Rev
isio
n.
of c
riter
ia fo
r di
stin
guis
hing
urb
an a
reas
. The
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
defin
es u
rban
as
a ci
ty, t
own,
or v
illag
e w
ith a
min
imum
pop
ulat
ion
of2,
500
peop
le. T
he c
lass
ifica
tion
of m
etro
poli-
tan
incl
udes
bot
h ur
ban
area
s as
wel
l as
rura
lar
eas
that
are
soc
ially
and
eco
nom
ical
ly in
te-
grat
ed w
ith a
par
ticul
ar c
ity.
Whe
n co
mpa
ring
coun
trie
s it
is o
ften
help
ful t
o lo
ok b
eyon
d th
e pr
opor
tion
ofpo
pula
tions
that
are
rur
al o
r ur
ban
and
inst
ead
cons
ider
the
size
of c
ities
. Cou
ntrie
sdi
ffer
mar
kedl
y in
the
dist
ribut
ion
of th
eir
urba
n po
pula
tion.
For
exa
mpl
e, m
any
urba
n
dwel
lers
in A
fric
a liv
e in
citi
es o
f few
er th
an10
,000
res
iden
ts. I
n A
rgen
tina,
90
perc
ent o
fth
e 20
00 p
opul
atio
n w
as u
rban
, and
38
per-
cent
of t
hese
peo
ple
lived
in ju
st o
ne c
ity,
Bue
nos
Aire
s. In
200
0, 3
9 pe
rcen
t of t
hew
orld
's u
rban
ites
Jive
d in
agg
lom
erat
ions
of
1 m
illio
n or
mor
e in
habi
tant
s, a
nd 1
5 pe
rcen
tre
side
d in
agg
lom
erat
ions
of 5
mill
ion
orm
ore.
Onl
y 8
perc
ent o
f Am
eric
ans
live
inci
ties
of 1
mill
ion
or m
ore.
4.J
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 19
Top
10
larg
est u
rban
agg
lom
erat
ions
in 1
950,
200
0, 2
015
1950
2000
2015
1. N
ew Y
ork,
US
A12
.31.
Tok
yo, J
apan
26.4
1. T
okyo
, Jap
an26
.42.
Lon
don,
Eng
land
8.7
2. M
exic
o C
ity, M
exic
o18
.42.
Bom
bay,
Indi
a26
.1
3. T
okyo
, Jap
an6.
93.
Bom
bay,
Indi
a18
.03.
Lag
os, N
iger
ia23
.2
4. P
aris
, Fra
nce
5.4
4. S
ao P
aulo
, Bra
zil
17.8
4. D
haka
, Ban
glad
esh
21.1
5. M
osco
w, R
ussi
a5.
45.
New
Yor
k, U
SA
16.6
5. S
ao P
aulo
, Bra
zil
20.4
6. S
hang
hai,
Chi
na5.
36.
Lag
os, N
iger
ia13
.46.
Kar
achi
, Pak
ista
n19
.2
7. E
ssen
, Ger
man
y5.
37.
Los
Ang
eles
, US
A13
.17.
Mex
ico
City
, Mex
ico
19.2
8. B
ueno
s A
ires,
Arg
entin
a5.
08.
Cal
cutta
, Ind
ia12
.98.
New
Yor
k, U
SA
17.4
9. C
hica
go, U
SA
4.9
9. S
hang
hai,
Chi
na12
.99.
Jak
arta
, Ind
ones
ia17
.3
10. C
alcu
tta, I
ndia
4.4
10. B
ueno
s A
ires,
Arg
entin
a 12
.610
. Cal
cutta
, Ind
ia17
.3
Sou
rce:
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
, Wor
ld U
rban
izat
ion
Pro
spec
ts, T
he 1
999
Rev
isio
n.
MIG
RA
TIO
N O
R N
AT
UR
AL
INC
RE
AS
EA
city
gro
ws
thro
ugh
natu
ral i
ncre
ase-
the
exce
ss o
f birt
hs o
ver
deat
hs-a
nd b
ecau
se th
ein
-mig
ratio
n of
peo
ple
from
oth
er c
ities
, rur
alar
eas,
or
coun
trie
s is
gre
ater
than
out
-mig
ra-
tion.
Mor
e de
velo
ped
and
less
dev
elop
edco
untr
ies
of th
e w
orld
diff
er n
ot o
nly
in th
epe
rcen
t liv
ing
in c
ities
, but
als
o in
the
way
inw
hich
urb
aniz
atio
n is
occ
urrin
g.D
urin
g th
e 19
th a
nd e
arly
20t
h ce
ntur
ies,
urba
niza
tion
resu
lted
from
and
con
trib
uted
to in
dust
rializ
atio
n. N
ew jo
b op
port
uniti
es in
the
citie
s sp
urre
d th
e m
ass
mov
emen
t of s
ur-
plus
pop
ulat
ion
away
from
the
coun
trys
ide.
At t
he s
ame
time,
mig
rant
s pr
ovid
ed c
heap
,pl
entif
ul la
bor
for
the
emer
ging
fact
orie
s.W
hile
the
prop
ortio
n in
crea
sed
thro
ugh
rura
lto
urb
an m
igra
tion,
hig
h de
ath
rate
s in
the
citie
s sl
owed
urb
an g
row
th. C
ities
wer
eun
heal
thy
plac
es b
ecau
se o
f cro
wde
d liv
ing
cond
ition
s, th
e pr
eval
ence
of c
onta
giou
s di
s-ea
ses,
and
the
lack
of s
anita
tion.
Unt
il th
em
id-1
800s
, the
num
ber
of d
eath
s ex
ceed
edbi
rths
in m
any
larg
e E
urop
ean
citie
s.M
igra
tion
acco
unte
d fo
r as
muc
h as
90
per-
cent
of c
ity g
row
th d
urin
g th
is p
erio
d.
46
Urb
aniz
atio
n in
mos
t les
s de
velo
ped
coun
trie
s in
the
past
50
year
s co
ntra
sts
shar
ply
with
the
expe
rienc
e of
the
mor
ede
velo
ped
coun
trie
s. D
eath
rat
es h
ave
falle
nfa
ster
in u
rban
are
as b
ecau
se o
f gre
ater
acce
ss to
hea
lth s
ervi
ces.
Bec
ause
birt
h ra
tes
are
rela
tivel
y hi
gh in
mos
t les
s de
velo
ped
coun
trie
s, th
e ra
tes
of n
atur
al in
crea
se a
real
so q
uite
hig
h in
citi
es. M
igra
tion
also
fuel
sur
ban
grow
th in
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
aspe
ople
leav
e th
e co
untr
ysid
e in
sea
rch
ofbe
tter
jobs
.T
he c
hart
"G
row
th o
f urb
an a
gglo
mer
a-tio
ns"
(p. 1
9) s
how
s po
pula
tion
grow
th in
sele
cted
citi
es. N
ew Y
ork
and
Lond
on a
re ty
pi-
cal o
f lar
ge c
ities
in m
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies
that
aro
se in
the
1800
s an
d ea
rly 1
900s
,re
ache
d th
eir
curr
ent s
ize
mid
-cen
tury
, and
have
sin
ce e
xper
ienc
ed s
low
gro
wth
or
decl
ine.
Citi
es in
som
e le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
n-tr
ies,
suc
h as
Mex
ico
City
, gre
w v
ery
rapi
dly
betw
een
1950
and
198
0, a
nd a
re g
row
ing
mor
e sl
owly
now
. Man
y A
sian
and
Afr
ican
citie
s, s
uch
as L
agos
and
Bom
bay,
are
exp
eri-
enci
ng v
ery
rapi
d gr
owth
now
and
are
pro
-je
cted
to c
ontin
ue a
t thi
s pa
ce.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 20
ME
GA
CIT
IES
As
the
popu
latio
n in
crea
ses,
mor
e pe
ople
will
live
in la
rge
citie
s. M
any
peop
le w
ill li
ve in
the
grow
ing
num
ber
of c
ities
with
ove
r 5
mil-
lion
habi
tant
s kn
own
as m
egac
ities
. As
the
map
"La
rges
t urb
an a
gglo
mer
atio
ns"
(p. 1
8)sh
ows,
just
eig
ht c
ities
had
pop
ulat
ions
of 5
mill
ion
or m
ore
in 1
950,
two
of th
em in
less
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies.
Meg
aciti
es n
umbe
red
41in
200
0. B
y 20
15, 5
9 m
egac
ities
will
exi
st, 4
8in
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries.
By
the
turn
of t
he c
entu
ry, c
ities
of 1
0 m
il-lio
n an
d la
rger
will
be
mor
e co
mm
on. I
n 19
50,
only
one
city
had
mor
e th
an 1
0 m
illio
n in
habi
-ta
nts
(see
tabl
e, "
Top
10
larg
est u
rban
aggl
omer
atio
ns,"
at l
eft)
. By
2015
, 23
citie
sar
e pr
ojec
ted
to h
old
over
10
mill
ion
peop
le;
all b
ut fo
ur w
ill b
e in
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries.
47
Wha
t are
the
soci
al im
plic
atio
ns o
f rap
id p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
in le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntrie
s?T
his
is a
com
plex
issu
e. R
apid
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th in
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
is li
nked
to m
any
prob
lem
sinc
ludi
ng p
over
ty,
hung
er, h
igh
infa
nt m
orta
lity,
and
inad
equa
-ci
es in
soc
ial s
ervi
ces,
hea
lth s
ervi
ces,
and
infr
astr
uctu
re (
tran
spor
tatio
n, c
omm
unic
a-tio
n, e
tc.)
. It w
ould
be
a gr
oss
over
sim
plifi
ca-
tion
to s
ay th
at p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
cau
ses
thes
e pr
oble
ms.
Pop
ulat
ion
grow
th c
ould
just
as e
asily
hav
e be
en th
e ef
fect
of e
cono
mic
inse
curit
y an
d po
or h
ealth
car
e. H
owev
er,
rapi
d po
pula
tion
grow
th m
ay d
efea
t effo
rts
to c
omba
t pov
erty
and
hun
ger
and
toim
prov
e se
rvic
es, a
s in
crea
sing
num
bers
of
peop
le p
ut s
erio
us p
ress
ures
on
the
econ
omy
and
soci
ety
of p
oor
natio
ns.
Pov
erty
, for
exa
mpl
e, e
xist
ed lo
ng b
efor
eth
e re
cent
per
iod
of r
apid
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th.
An
asse
ssm
ent o
f pov
erty
mus
t con
side
r th
eam
ount
and
type
of n
atur
al r
esou
rces
, inc
lud-
ing
min
eral
s an
d ge
ogra
phic
feat
ures
, tha
t aco
untr
y po
sses
ses
or la
cks.
It m
ust a
lso
incl
ude
an e
xam
inat
ion
of th
e co
untr
y's
polit
ical
and
soci
al s
truc
ture
. In
area
s w
here
pow
er a
ndw
ealth
are
con
cent
rate
d in
the
hand
s of
afe
w, i
t is
diffi
cult
for
the
poor
to b
reak
out
of
the
cycl
e of
pov
erty
that
is o
ften
pass
ed fr
omge
nera
tion
to g
ener
atio
n. R
apid
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th m
akes
this
effo
rt e
ven
mor
e di
fficu
lt.
4 3
Hun
ger
has
alw
ays
been
a c
ompa
nion
topo
vert
y. M
ost e
xper
ts a
gree
that
the
wor
ldco
uld
feed
toda
y's
popu
latio
n, a
nd a
con
sid-
erab
ly la
rger
num
ber,
if in
com
e w
ere
redi
s-tr
ibut
ed, i
f mod
ern
farm
ing
met
hods
wer
eus
ed e
very
whe
re, i
f lan
d re
form
pol
icie
s w
ere
put i
nto
effe
ct, i
f mea
t con
sum
ptio
n w
ere
redu
ced,
if n
on-n
utrit
ious
cro
ps w
ere
repl
aced
by
nutr
itiou
s cr
ops,
and
if w
aste
and
corr
uptio
n w
ere
cont
rolle
d. H
owev
er, r
apid
popu
latio
n gr
owth
may
inte
nsify
the
hung
erpr
oble
m; i
n th
e m
ost r
apid
ly g
row
ing
coun
-tr
ies,
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th c
an r
educ
e or
elim
i-na
te fo
od p
rodu
ctio
n ga
ins
resu
lting
from
mod
erni
zatio
n of
farm
ing.
Pop
ulat
ion
pres
-su
res
may
als
o en
cour
age
prac
tices
suc
h as
over
irrig
atio
n an
d ov
erus
e of
cro
plan
ds,
whi
ch u
nder
min
e th
e ca
paci
ty to
feed
larg
ernu
mbe
rs.
In s
ome
case
s, p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
is q
uite
dire
ctly
rel
ated
to a
soc
ial p
robl
em b
ecau
se it
incr
ease
s th
e ab
solu
te n
umbe
rs w
hose
nee
dsm
ust b
e m
et. F
or e
xam
ple,
som
e le
ss d
evel
-op
ed c
ount
ries
have
mad
e en
orm
ous
prog
ress
in in
crea
sing
the
perc
enta
ge o
f chi
ldre
nen
rolle
d in
sch
ool.
How
ever
, bec
ause
of p
opu-
latio
n gr
owth
dur
ing
the
sam
e pe
riod,
the
num
ber
of c
hild
ren
who
are
not
enr
olle
d in
scho
ol a
lso
incr
ease
d be
caus
e th
ere
wer
ein
suffi
cien
t res
ourc
es to
mee
t the
gro
win
gne
ed. S
imila
r ob
serv
atio
ns c
ould
be
mad
eab
out j
obs,
hou
sing
, san
itatio
n, a
nd o
ther
hum
an n
eeds
. The
se p
robl
ems
are
com
poun
d-ed
whe
n la
rge
num
bers
mig
rate
from
rur
al to
urba
n ar
eas
and
incr
ease
the
burd
en p
lace
don
alre
ady
inad
equa
te s
uppl
ies
and
serv
ices
.
TE
RM
SM
egac
ities
A c
ity w
ith a
popu
latio
n of
10
mill
ion
orm
ore
resi
dent
s.
Met
ropo
litan
are
a A
larg
eco
ncen
trat
ion
of p
opul
atio
n,us
ually
an
area
with
100
,000
or
mor
e pe
ople
. The
are
a ty
pica
llyin
clud
es a
n im
port
ant c
ity w
ith50
,000
or
mor
e in
habi
tant
s an
dth
e ad
min
istr
ativ
e ar
eas
bord
er-
ing
the
city
that
are
soc
ially
and
econ
omic
ally
inte
grat
ed w
ith it
.
Urb
an C
ount
ries
diffe
r in
the
way
they
cla
ssify
pop
ulat
ion
as"u
rban
" or
"ru
ral."
Typ
ical
ly, a
com
mun
ity o
r se
ttlem
ent w
ith a
popu
latio
n of
2,0
00 o
r m
ore
isco
nsid
ered
urb
an. A
list
ing
ofco
untr
y de
finiti
ons
is p
ublis
hed
annu
ally
in th
e U
nite
d N
atio
nsD
emog
raph
ic Y
earb
ook.
Urb
an a
gglo
mer
atio
n U
rban
aggl
omer
atio
ns a
re a
reas
of
1 m
illio
n po
pula
tion
or m
ore.
The
con
cept
of a
gglo
mer
atio
nde
fines
the
popu
latio
n co
n-ta
ined
with
in th
e co
ntou
rs o
fco
ntig
uous
terr
itory
inha
bite
dat
urb
an le
vels
of r
esid
entia
lde
nsity
with
out r
egar
d to
adm
inis
trat
ive
boun
darie
s.
Urb
aniz
atio
n G
row
th in
the
prop
ortio
n of
a p
opul
atio
n liv
-in
g in
urb
an a
reas
.
4 j
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 21
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 22
WO
ME
N'S
ED
UC
AT
ION
AN
D F
AM
ILY
SIZ
E IN
SE
LEC
TE
DC
OU
NT
RIE
S, 1
990s
Tot
al fe
rtili
ty r
ate
No
educ
atio
nP
rimar
yco
mpl
eted
Sec
onda
ryco
mpl
eted
7.8
4.6
7.1
6.9
6.1
5.8
5.7
3.6
5.0
3.6
3.6
Nig
erG
uate
mal
aY
emen
Hai
tiK
enya
Pak
ista
nP
hirp
pine
sJo
rdan
1998
1999
1997
Sou
rce:
Dem
ogra
phic
and
Hea
lth S
urve
ys, 1
991-
1999
.
1995
1998
1991
1998
1997
5051
The
pop
ulat
ion
of th
e w
orld
sur
ged
from
2.4
bill
ion
in 1
950
to 6
.1 b
illio
n 50
yea
rsla
ter,
bec
ause
birt
h ra
tes
rem
aine
d hi
gh a
t the
sam
e tim
e th
at d
eath
rat
es b
egan
to fa
ll. T
henu
mbe
r of
chi
ldre
n th
at a
cou
ple
will
hav
e is
dete
rmin
ed b
y m
any
fact
or's
, inc
ludi
ng h
ealth
,re
ligio
n, c
ultu
re, e
cono
mic
sta
tus,
and
the
abil-
ity to
hav
e th
e nu
mbe
r th
ey w
ish
to h
ave.
Man
y of
thes
e fa
ctor
s re
late
to th
e st
atus
of
wom
enth
e so
cial
, eco
nom
ic, a
nd c
ultu
ral c
ir-cu
mst
ance
s of
wom
en in
soc
iety
and
of i
ndi-
vidu
al w
omen
in d
iffer
ent s
ocie
ties.
Bec
ause
thes
e fa
ctor
s he
lp d
eter
min
e th
e nu
mbe
r, s
pac-
ing,
and
tim
ing
of b
irths
, wom
en's
cho
ices
(or
lack
ther
eof)
reg
ardi
ng c
hild
birt
h di
rect
lyaf
fect
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th.
FA
CT
OR
S A
FF
EC
TIN
G F
AM
ILY
SIZ
EB
iolo
gica
l, cu
ltura
l, an
d so
cioe
cono
mic
con
di-
tions
toge
ther
det
erm
ine
the
num
ber
ofch
ildre
n th
at a
wom
an w
ill h
ave.
The
se c
ondi
-tio
ns in
fluen
ce h
er e
xpos
ure
to in
terc
ours
ean
d he
r ab
ility
to c
once
ive
a ch
ild, a
s w
ell a
sth
e nu
mbe
r of
chi
ldre
n sh
e m
ay w
ish
to h
ave.
Som
e fa
ctor
s in
clud
e ag
e at
mar
riage
, use
of
fam
ily p
lann
ing
met
hods
, and
bre
astfe
edin
g.M
any
soci
oeco
nom
ic fa
ctor
s ar
e al
so im
por-
tant
influ
ence
s on
fert
ility
. The
se fa
ctor
s ar
eso
met
imes
indi
rect
ly r
elat
ed. E
duca
tion,
urba
niza
tion,
labo
r fo
rce
part
icip
atio
n, a
ndin
fant
mor
talit
y ha
ve a
str
ong
corr
elat
ion
with
leve
ls o
f fer
tility
. But
it is
diff
icul
t to
dete
rmin
e di
rect
cau
satio
n an
d on
e m
ust b
eca
refu
l not
to c
onfu
se c
ausa
tion
with
cor
-
V 0
J
Wom
en's
age
at f
irst
mar
riage
(ye
ars)
and
fam
ilysi
ze (
TF
R)
in s
elec
ted
coun
trie
s, 1
990s
MC
)
'OM
illoa
9
Cha
d
Yem
en
Gua
tem
ala
Hai
ti
Jord
an
6.6
6.5
5.0
4.7
4.4
8.9
wog
`46:
Ban
glad
eshla
gE
gypt
Indo
nesi
aE
nU
zbek
ista
nE
nU
SA
Elin
Ave
rage
age
at fi
rst
mar
riage
Tot
alfe
rtili
tyra
te
Sou
rces
: Dem
ogra
phic
and
Hea
lth S
urve
ys, 1
991-
1999
;an
d P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau,
200
0 W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Dat
a S
heet
.
rela
tion.
Som
e fa
ctor
s m
ay b
e m
erel
y re
late
dto
fert
ility
rat
es, a
nd o
ther
unk
now
n fa
ctor
sm
ay b
e th
e re
al c
ause
of d
iffer
ent l
evel
s of
fert
ility
am
ong
diffe
rent
wom
en a
nd d
iffer
-en
t soc
ietie
s.G
ener
ally
, the
age
at w
hich
a w
oman
firs
tm
arrie
s is
dire
ctly
rel
ated
to th
e nu
mbe
r of
child
ren
she
will
bea
r be
caus
e it
affe
cts
the
leng
th o
f tim
e sh
e w
ill b
e at
ris
k of
bec
omin
gpr
egna
nt. O
f cou
rse,
unm
arrie
d w
omen
may
also
hav
e ch
ildre
n, b
ut th
e va
st m
ajor
ity o
fch
ildbe
arin
g ta
kes
plac
e w
ithin
mar
riage
thro
ugho
ut m
ost o
f the
wor
ld, w
hich
mak
esth
e ag
e at
mar
riage
a v
alua
ble
indi
cato
r of
aw
oman
's li
fetim
e fe
rtili
ty. T
he to
tal f
ertil
ityra
teor
ave
rage
birt
hs p
er w
oman
for
Ger
man
wom
en, w
ho m
arry
aro
und
age
24,
is 1
.3. C
onve
rsel
y, w
omen
in C
had,
who
mar
ryea
rlier
, ave
rage
7 c
hild
ren
(see
cha
rt,
"Wom
en's
age
at f
irst m
arria
ge a
nd fa
mily
size
," a
t lef
t). W
ithin
cou
ntrie
s, r
ural
wom
ente
nd to
mar
ry e
arlie
r th
an u
rban
wom
en a
ndte
nd to
hav
e la
rger
fam
ilies
. Acc
ess
to c
ontr
a-ce
ptio
n is
an
impo
rtan
t con
trib
utor
to th
e di
f-fe
renc
es in
the
fert
ility
rat
es a
mon
g co
untr
ies,
but c
ultu
re a
nd s
ocio
econ
omic
s w
eigh
hea
vily
as w
ell.
Wom
en's
acc
ess
to e
duca
tion,
hea
lth c
are,
fam
ily p
lann
ing,
and
em
ploy
men
t all
affe
ctfa
mily
siz
e. S
tudi
es s
how
that
wom
en w
hoha
ve c
ompl
eted
prim
ary
scho
ol h
ave
few
erch
ildre
n th
an th
ose
with
no
educ
atio
n.E
duca
tion
is k
ey b
ecau
se e
duca
ted
wom
enar
e m
ore
likel
y to
kno
w w
hat s
ocia
l, co
mm
u-ni
ty, a
nd h
ealth
ser
vice
s, in
clud
ing
fam
ilypl
anni
ng, a
re a
vaila
ble
and
to h
ave
the
conf
i-de
nce
to u
se th
em. I
n ad
ditio
n, w
omen
with
mor
e ed
ucat
ion
have
mor
e op
port
uniti
es o
ut-
side
the
hom
e an
d ca
n se
e th
e be
nefit
s of
educ
atio
n fo
r th
eir
child
ren.
Wom
en w
hoac
hiev
e a
rela
tivel
y hi
gh le
vel o
f edu
catio
nar
e al
so m
ore
likel
y to
ent
er th
e la
bor
forc
e
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
rovi
ldi a
ed C
hang
e 23
befo
re th
ey m
arry
or
begi
n ch
ildbe
arin
g, a
ndul
timat
ely
to h
ave
smal
ler
fam
ilies
than
wom
en w
ho m
arry
in th
eir
teen
s. T
his
tren
dis
evi
dent
in a
lmos
t eve
ry c
ount
ry w
here
dat
aar
e av
aila
ble.
As
the
char
t "W
omen
's e
duca
-tio
n an
d fa
mily
siz
e" (
p. 2
2) s
how
s, w
omen
with
a s
econ
dary
sch
ool e
duca
tion
have
sub
-st
antia
lly s
mal
ler
fam
ilies
than
wom
en w
ithle
ss e
duca
tion.
Evi
denc
e sh
ows
that
effo
rts
to lo
wer
birt
h ra
tes
may
dep
end
on im
prov
ing
the
sta-
tus
of w
omen
. Par
t of t
he C
airo
Pro
gram
me
of A
ctio
n, d
evel
oped
at t
he 1
994
Inte
r-na
tiona
l Con
fere
nce
on P
opul
atio
n an
dD
evel
opm
ent,
calls
for
univ
ersa
l acc
ess
toed
ucat
ion,
em
ploy
men
t opp
ortu
nitie
s fo
rw
omen
, and
an
end
to d
iscr
imin
atio
n ag
ains
tw
omen
. Exp
erie
nces
in s
ome
coun
trie
s ha
vesh
own
that
fert
ility
pat
tern
s ca
n ch
ange
in a
slit
tle a
s a
deca
de, a
nd th
at v
olun
tary
pol
icie
san
d pr
ogra
ms
can
be h
ighl
y ef
fect
ive
inen
cour
agin
g th
e ch
ange
.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 24
AN
EX
AM
PLE
FR
OM
IND
IAW
omen
in th
e so
uthe
rn In
dian
sta
te o
f Ker
ala
dem
onst
rate
the
role
of a
wom
an's
sta
tus
inlo
wer
ing
birt
h ra
tes
and
impr
ovin
g ch
ild a
ndm
ater
nal h
ealth
. Ker
ala
is p
rimar
ily r
ural
and
agric
ultu
ral,
as is
mos
t of I
ndia
. The
res
iden
tsha
ve lo
w in
com
es. Y
et, i
n th
e ea
rly 1
990s
,w
omen
in K
eral
a w
ere
bear
ing
abou
t tw
och
ildre
n, o
n av
erag
e. T
hat i
s th
e sa
me
as th
eav
erag
e in
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
toda
y, a
nd le
ssth
an th
e av
erag
e fo
r In
dia
(3.2
). B
etw
een
1970
and
199
2, K
eral
a's
TF
R d
ropp
ed fr
om 4
.1to
2.0
chi
ldre
n pe
r w
oman
, the
larg
est d
eclin
eof
any
Indi
an s
tate
. By
the
end
of th
e 19
90s,
the
tota
l fer
tility
rat
e w
as d
own
to a
bout
1.8
child
ren
per
wom
an. T
he in
fant
mor
talit
y ra
teis
als
o lo
w, 1
4 de
aths
of i
nfan
ts u
nder
age
1pe
r 1,
000
live
birt
hs in
a g
iven
yea
r.W
hy a
re th
e w
omen
in K
eral
a di
ffere
nt?
One
obv
ious
diff
eren
ce is
thei
r hi
gher
edu
ca-
tiona
l lev
el. W
hile
mos
t Ind
ian
wom
en c
anno
tre
ad a
nd w
rite,
85
perc
ent o
f wom
en in
Ker
ala
are
liter
ate.
The
sta
te g
over
nmen
t has
assi
gned
a h
igh
prio
rity
to e
nsur
ing
that
all
resi
dent
s ha
ve a
cces
s to
edu
catio
n.B
ut to
day'
s hi
gh li
tera
cy r
ates
and
goo
dm
ater
nal h
ealth
are
onl
y tw
o in
dica
tors
of
the
high
er s
tatu
s w
omen
in K
eral
a ha
veen
joye
d fo
r a
long
tim
e. In
trad
ition
alK
eral
ese
cultu
re, w
omen
can
inhe
rit la
nd a
nd
Dem
ogra
phic
and
soc
io-
econ
omic
indi
cato
rs in
Indi
aan
d th
e U
nite
d S
tate
s, la
te19
90s
:la-0 I
AC
Dal
Ces C
cu
Tot
al fe
rtili
ty r
ate
2.1
3.2
1.8
Infa
nt m
orta
lity
rate
768
14
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
(mal
e)74
6071
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
(fem
ale)
7961
75
Fem
ale
liter
acy
9957
85
Con
trac
eptiv
e pr
eval
ence
(all
met
hods
)76
48.2
63.7
Sou
rces
: Pop
ulat
ion
Ref
eren
ce B
urea
u, 2
000
Wor
ldP
opul
atio
n D
ata
She
et; R
egis
trar
Gen
eral
of I
ndia
; and
and
Nat
iona
l Fam
ily H
ealth
Sur
vey
1998
-99
(N
FH
S-2
).
wie
ld s
ome
polit
ical
pow
era
shar
p co
ntra
stw
ith o
ther
par
ts o
f Ind
ia. A
nd, w
hile
in m
ost
of In
dia
girls
are
con
side
red
a dr
ain
on fa
mily
finan
ces
beca
use
thei
r pa
rent
s m
ust p
ay a
dow
ry to
mar
ry th
em o
ff, K
eral
ese
wom
enbr
ing
thei
r fa
mili
es a
brid
epric
e. In
Ker
ala,
girls
are
con
side
red
an a
sset
.
Whi
ch p
olic
ies
are
mos
t effe
ctiv
e in
red
ucin
gI p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
?S
ince
197
0, b
irth
rate
s ha
ve d
ropp
ed, s
ome-
times
qui
te r
apid
ly, i
n m
any
less
dev
elop
edco
untr
ies.
Thi
s is
an
enco
urag
ing
sign
to th
ose
gove
rnm
ents
that
hav
e id
entif
ied
rapi
d po
pu-
latio
n gr
owth
as
an o
bsta
cle
to th
eir
deve
lop-
men
t goa
ls. D
eclin
es h
ave
occu
rred
in s
ettin
gsth
at v
ary
wid
ely.
In a
n at
tem
pt to
influ
ence
the
popu
latio
n si
ze a
nd c
ompo
sitio
n of
thei
rco
untr
y, g
over
nmen
ts h
ave
esta
blis
hed
popu
-la
tion
polic
ies.
Res
earc
h st
udie
s ha
ve fo
und
that
org
an-
ized
pro
gram
s to
mak
e fa
mily
pla
nnin
g in
for-
mat
ion
and
serv
ices
wid
ely
avai
labl
e ha
ve th
em
ost i
mm
edia
te r
esul
ts a
nd c
ost l
ess
than
othe
r pr
ogra
ms.
Les
s de
velo
ped
coun
trie
sth
at h
ave
impl
emen
ted
succ
essf
ul p
rogr
ams
have
mad
e a
stro
ng p
oliti
cal c
omm
itmen
t to
cultu
rally
sen
sitiv
e, c
onve
nien
tly lo
cate
d ou
t-re
ach
prog
ram
s th
at o
ffer
user
s a
wid
e va
ri-et
y of
fam
ily p
lann
ing
met
hods
. In
part
icul
ar,
prog
ram
s in
whi
ch fe
mal
e fa
mily
pla
nnin
gw
orke
rs v
isit
wom
en in
thei
r ho
mes
brin
gab
out a
trem
endo
us in
crea
se in
the
use
ofco
ntra
cept
ion.
In tr
aditi
onal
soc
ietie
s, fa
mily
plan
ning
pro
gram
s ar
e m
ost s
ucce
ssfu
l whe
nco
mm
unity
lead
ers,
thos
e pe
ople
who
hav
e a
stro
ng in
fluen
ce o
n a
grou
p's
deci
sion
mak
ing
G
and
on in
divi
dual
atti
tude
s, s
uppo
rt th
em.
The
impo
rtan
ce o
f thi
s fa
ctor
is r
einf
orce
d by
a re
anal
ysis
of t
he fe
rtili
ty d
eclin
e in
19t
hce
ntur
y E
urop
e. T
he s
tudy
foun
d th
at a
chan
ge in
cul
tura
l atti
tude
s to
war
d th
eac
cept
abili
ty o
f lim
iting
fam
ily s
ize
was
as
esse
ntia
l as
the
soci
al a
nd e
cono
mic
impr
ove-
men
ts th
at w
ere
occu
rrin
g.H
owev
er, t
o re
duce
fert
ility
to th
e le
vel
requ
ired
to b
ring
abou
t slo
w p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
, soc
ial a
nd e
cono
mic
impr
ovem
ent i
sne
cess
ary
as w
ell.
Cou
ples
livi
ng in
ext
rem
epo
vert
y ha
ve li
ttle
reas
on to
thin
k th
at h
av-
ing
few
er c
hild
ren
wou
ld im
prov
e th
eir
mar
-gi
nal e
xist
ence
. Chi
ldre
n m
ay in
deed
repr
esen
t the
ir fu
ture
sec
urity
sin
ce m
any
peop
le d
epen
d on
thei
r ch
ildre
n fo
r ho
use-
hold
and
agr
icul
tura
l wor
k an
d fo
r su
ppor
t in
old
age.
Stu
dies
hav
e fo
und
that
whe
n po
orfa
mili
es a
chie
ve a
cer
tain
leve
l of i
ncom
eth
ere
is a
dro
p in
fert
ility
. The
ava
ilabi
lity
offa
mily
pla
nnin
g se
rvic
es c
an h
elp
tran
slat
eid
eas
abou
t sm
alle
r fa
mily
siz
e in
to r
ealit
y.
The
sta
tus
of w
omen
als
o af
fect
s fe
rtili
tyle
vels
. Man
y w
omen
, esp
ecia
lly in
less
dev
el-
oped
cou
ntrie
s, h
ave
few
cho
ices
in li
fe o
ut-
side
of m
arria
ge a
nd c
hild
ren
and
tend
toha
ve la
rge
fam
ilies
. Inv
estin
g in
wom
en, b
ypr
ovid
ing
educ
atio
n, h
ealth
, and
oth
er s
erv-
ices
, hel
ps to
wid
en th
eir
oppo
rtun
ities
and
redu
ce th
eir
depe
nden
ce o
n ch
ildre
n fo
r st
a-tu
s an
d su
ppor
t.Im
mig
ratio
n po
licie
s ar
e al
so u
sed
tore
gula
te p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
. Som
e co
untr
ies
open
ly e
ncou
rage
em
igra
tion
to r
elie
vecr
owdi
ng a
nd u
nem
ploy
men
t. O
ther
cou
n-tr
ies
rest
rict t
he n
umbe
r of
peo
ple
who
may
ente
r an
d be
com
e ci
tizen
s. S
ome
coun
trie
sab
sorb
man
y ill
egal
imm
igra
nts
desp
ite s
pe-
cific
pol
icy
choi
ces,
and
oth
ers
may
cho
ose
toac
cept
a la
rge
num
ber
of r
efug
ees.
TE
RM
SF
amily
Usu
ally
two
or m
ore
pers
ons
livin
g to
geth
er a
ndre
late
d by
birt
h, m
arria
ge, o
rad
optio
n. F
amili
es m
ay c
onsi
stof
sib
lings
or
othe
r re
lativ
es a
sw
ell a
s m
arrie
d co
uple
s an
d an
ych
ildre
n th
ey h
ave.
Fam
ily p
lann
ing
The
con
scio
usef
fort
of c
oupl
es to
reg
ulat
e th
enu
mbe
r an
d sp
acin
g of
birt
hsth
roug
h ar
tific
ial a
nd n
atur
alm
etho
ds o
f con
trac
eptio
n.
Lite
racy
The
abi
lity
to r
ead
and
writ
e.
Pop
ulat
ion
polic
y E
xplic
it or
impl
icit
mea
sure
s in
stitu
ted
by a
gove
rnm
ent t
o in
fluen
ce p
opu-
latio
n si
ze, g
row
th, d
istr
ibut
ion,
or c
ompo
sitio
n.
5 /
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 25
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 26
MA
JOR
CA
US
ES
OF
DE
AT
H IN
TH
E U
NIT
ED
ST
AT
ES
AN
D P
ER
U
Live
r-di
seas
e,--
13%
HIV
/AID
S, 0
.7%
Can
cer,
4%
Ear
ly in
fanc
y di
seas
es, 3
.1%
t Hom
icid
e, 0
.9%
Sui
cide
, 1.3
%
Dia
bete
s, 2
.7%
Nut
ritio
nal d
efic
ienc
ies,
3.2
%S
trok
e, 4
%U
rinar
y sy
stem
dis
ease
s, 3
.5%
Pne
uem
onia
/Influ
enza
, 3.7
%I
Ear
ly in
fanc
y di
seas
es, 4
%C
ereb
rova
scul
ar d
isea
se, 4
%A
ccid
ents
, 4.1
%i
Kid
ney
dise
ase,
5%
Tub
ercu
losi
s, 5
%
Hea
rt d
isea
se8.
6%
Pul
mon
ary
dise
ase,
4.7
%
Infe
ctio
us &
para
sitic
dis
ease
s, 8
%C
ereb
rova
scul
ar d
isea
se, 6
.9%
I
Hea
rt d
isea
se9%
All
othe
r20
.3%
Dig
estiv
e di
seas
es10
.9%
Gas
troi
ntes
tinal
dis
ease
*9%
Can
cer
15.2
%T
uber
culo
sis
11%
Can
cer
23.3
%
Hea
rt d
isea
se31
.4%
Res
pira
tory
infe
ctio
ns16
.3%
Res
pira
tory
dis
ease
s **
16%
All
othe
r30
.2%
All
othe
r29
%
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Per
u19
0019
92U
nite
d S
tate
s19
97
* In
clud
es d
iarr
hea
and
infla
mm
atio
n of
the
stom
ach
and
inte
stin
es.
** P
rimar
ily in
fluen
za, b
ronc
hitis
, and
pne
umon
ia.
Sou
rce:
Pan
Am
eric
an H
ealth
Org
aniz
atio
n, H
ealth
in th
e A
mer
icas
2 (
1998
); a
nd N
atio
nal C
ente
r fo
r H
ealth
Sta
tistic
s,N
atio
nal V
ital S
tatis
tics
Rep
orts
47:
19
(Jun
e 30
, 199
9).
5059
Dec
linin
g m
orta
lity,
not
ris
ing
fert
il-ity
, has
bee
n th
e ca
use
of th
e ac
cele
ratin
gpa
ce o
f wor
ld p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
. By
atta
ck-
ing
the
caus
es o
f dea
th th
at h
ave
kept
pop
u-la
tion
grow
th lo
w fo
r m
ost o
f hum
anex
iste
nce,
we
have
ext
ende
d lif
e_ex
pect
anci
esan
d m
ultip
lied
our
num
bers
.--
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
has
incr
ease
d st
eadi
lyth
roug
h hi
stor
y. D
urin
g th
e R
oman
Em
pire
,av
erag
e lif
e ex
pect
ancy
at b
irth
was
a b
rief
22 y
ears
. By
the
Mid
dle
Age
s it
had
risen
toab
out 3
3 ye
ars
in E
ngla
nd, a
nd in
crea
sed
to 4
3ye
ars
by th
e m
iddl
e of
the
19th
cen
tury
. In
the
early
190
0s, l
ife e
xpec
tanc
ies
in m
ore
deve
l-op
ed c
ount
ries
rang
ed fr
om 3
5 to
55.
The
yha
ve c
limbe
d to
abo
ut 7
5 ye
ars
toda
y, a
nd c
on-
tinue
to im
prov
e. M
eanw
hile
, life
exp
ecta
ncy
inle
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntrie
s ha
s gr
adua
lly c
limbe
d,ris
ing
to a
bout
64
year
s in
199
5.In
itial
dec
lines
in m
orta
lity
can
be a
ttrib
-ut
ed to
impr
ovem
ents
in p
ublic
hea
lth a
ndliv
ing
stan
dard
s th
at a
ccom
pani
ed th
eIn
dust
rial R
evol
utio
n. G
reat
er d
eclin
es in
the
early
20t
h ce
ntur
y w
ere
attr
ibut
able
toim
prov
emen
ts in
med
ical
tech
nolo
gy, w
hich
led
to th
e co
ntro
l of s
uch
infe
ctio
us d
isea
ses
as tu
berc
ulos
is, s
mal
lpox
, and
cho
lera
. Fur
ther
impr
ovem
ents
in li
fe e
xpec
tanc
y ar
e an
tici-
pate
d in
mos
t cou
ntrie
s. In
cou
ntrie
s w
here
deat
h fr
orn
infe
ctio
us d
isea
ses
is m
inim
al, t
heim
prov
emen
ts w
ill c
ome
from
the
decl
ine
inm
orta
lity
from
deg
ener
ativ
e di
seas
es s
uch
ashe
art d
isea
se a
nd c
ance
r. In
som
e co
untr
ies,
the
spre
ad o
f AID
S a
nd o
ther
infe
ctio
us a
il-
Dea
ths
to c
hild
ren
unde
r ag
e5
by m
ain
caus
e, le
ssde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s, 1
995
Per
inat
al
Mea
sles
/7%
Mal
aria
5%
Dia
rrhe
a19
%
Sou
rce:
UN
ICE
F, T
he S
tate
of t
he W
orld
's C
hild
ren,
199
8.
men
ts is
a p
oten
tial t
hrea
t to
furt
her
gain
s in
life
expe
ctan
cy. I
n C
entr
al A
fric
a, w
here
the
spre
ad o
f HIV
infe
ctio
n is
dis
prop
ortio
nate
lyhi
gh, l
ife e
xpec
tanc
y ha
s be
gun
to d
eclin
e.
INF
AN
T A
ND
CH
ILD
MO
RT
ALI
TY
In le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntrie
s, th
e ch
ance
sof
dyi
ng a
re g
reat
est a
t inf
ancy
and
rem
ain
high
dur
ing
the
first
few
yea
rs o
f chi
ldho
od.
A n
ewbo
rn c
hild
is fr
agile
and
has
not
dev
el-
oped
imm
uniti
es to
com
mon
ailm
ents
. Whe
n
a co
untr
y ha
s a
high
rat
e of
infa
nt d
eath
, it
usua
lly s
igna
ls h
igh
mor
talit
y ris
k fr
om in
fec-
tious
, par
asiti
c, c
omm
unic
able
, and
oth
er d
is-
ease
s as
soci
ated
with
poo
r sa
nita
ry c
ondi
tions
and
mal
nour
ishm
ent.
As
a re
sult,
the
infa
ntm
orta
lity
rate
(IM
R),
or
annu
al n
umbe
r of
deat
hs o
f chi
ldre
n un
der
age
1 pe
r 1,
000
live
birt
hs, i
s co
nsid
ered
one
of t
he m
ost s
ensi
tive
mea
sure
s of
a n
atio
n's
heal
th.
Wor
ldw
ide
abou
t 8 m
illio
n ba
bies
die
annu
ally
bef
ore
thei
r fir
st b
irthd
ay. A
s th
ech
art "
Dea
ths
to c
hild
ren
unde
r ag
e 5
bym
ain
caus
e" (
at le
ft) in
dica
tes,
two
of th
e pr
i-m
ary
caus
es o
f inf
ant a
nd c
hild
dea
ths
are
acut
e re
spira
tory
dis
ease
ssuc
h as
pne
umo-
nia,
tube
rcul
osis
, and
influ
enza
and
diar
-rh
ea. O
ther
infe
ctio
us d
isea
ses,
suc
h as
mea
sles
, are
als
o m
ajor
cau
ses
of d
eath
s to
infa
nts
and
child
ren.
Dea
th fr
om th
ese
cond
i-tio
ns is
alm
ost u
nhea
rd o
f for
infa
nts
in m
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies.
But
in le
ss d
evel
oped
coun
trie
s w
here
mal
nour
ishm
ent w
eake
nssm
all b
odie
s, m
edic
al fa
cilit
ies
are
scar
ce, a
ndliv
ing
area
s m
ay b
e un
sani
tary
, inf
ant d
eath
sar
e co
mm
on. I
n 20
00, w
orld
IMR
s ra
nge
from
2.6
per
1,00
0 bi
rths
in Ic
elan
d to
157
per
1,00
0 in
Sie
rra
Leon
e.-
-As
coun
trie
s de
velo
p ec
onom
ical
ly, i
nfan
tm
orta
lity
usua
lly d
eclin
es. T
he IM
R in
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
was
pro
babl
y ab
out 1
00 in
1900
arou
nd th
e le
vel o
f the
IMR
s of
som
eof
the
poor
est c
ount
ries
in th
e w
orld
toda
y.T
he IM
R in
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
has
now
falle
nto
bel
ow 1
0. M
any
coun
trie
s ha
ve e
ven
low
er
6H
uman
Pop
ulat
ion:
Fun
dam
enta
ls o
f Gro
wth
and
Cha
nge
27
rate
s, w
ith J
apan
, Sw
eden
, and
Fin
land
hea
d-in
g th
e lis
t (se
e ch
art b
elow
, "W
orld
infa
ntm
orta
lity
rate
s in
sel
ecte
d co
untr
ies"
).
Wor
ld in
fant
mor
talit
y ra
tes
inse
lect
ed c
ount
ries,
200
0
IJap
an, 3
.5
IUS
A, 7
IIRus
sia,
17 Per
u, 4
3
Eth
iopi
a, 1
16
Afg
hani
stan
, 150
Sou
rce:
Pop
ulat
ion
Ref
eren
ce B
urea
u, 2
000
Wor
ldP
opul
atio
n D
ata
She
et. 62
CA
US
ES
OF
DE
AT
HT
he c
hart
"M
ajor
cau
ses
of d
eath
in th
eU
nite
d S
tate
s an
d P
eru"
(p.
26)
, is
usef
ul fo
rde
velo
ping
a b
ette
r un
ders
tand
ing
of th
ech
ange
s in
mor
talit
y in
this
cen
tury
. It s
how
sth
e m
ajor
cau
ses
of d
eath
for
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
in 1
900
and
1997
, and
for
Per
u in
199
2.E
ach
colu
mn
acco
unts
for
all c
ause
s of
dea
thw
ith th
e to
p ca
uses
spe
cifie
d. S
ome
caus
esar
e co
mbi
ned
beca
use
of th
eir
sim
ilarit
ies.
Dat
a on
cau
se o
f dea
th s
houl
d be
inte
rpre
ted
caut
ious
ly b
ecau
se s
ome
caus
es a
re m
ore
easi
-ly
iden
tifie
d th
an o
ther
s an
d ar
e re
port
edm
ore
com
plet
ely.
In th
e U
nite
d S
tate
s in
190
0, r
espi
rato
ry,
infe
ctio
us a
nd p
aras
itic,
and
gas
troi
ntes
tinal
dise
ases
(in
clud
ing
diar
rhea
) ac
coun
ted
for
near
ly 4
0 pe
rcen
t of a
ll de
aths
. Sin
ce th
en,
mor
talit
y ra
tes
from
thes
e di
seas
es h
ave
decl
ined
sha
rply
. For
exa
mpl
e, tu
berc
ulos
is,
whi
ch a
ccou
nted
for
11 p
erce
nt o
f dea
ths
in19
00, a
ccou
nted
for
less
than
1 p
erce
nt in
1997
. Hea
rt d
isea
ses,
str
oke,
and
can
cer,
whi
ch a
ccou
nt fo
r m
ore
than
hal
f of a
llde
aths
toda
y, c
ause
d on
ly a
bout
15
perc
ent
of d
eath
s in
190
0.In
Per
u to
day,
like
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
in19
90, t
he c
ause
s of
dea
th a
re m
ore
broa
dly
disp
erse
d. F
ifty
perc
ent a
re a
ttrib
utab
le to
the
top
four
cau
ses.
Res
pira
tory
dis
ease
s to
pth
e lis
t, w
ith c
ance
r, d
iges
tive,
and
hea
rt d
is-
ease
s al
so c
ontr
ibut
ing
a la
rge
shar
e.A
s P
eru
and
othe
r co
untr
ies
cont
inue
tode
velo
p, th
eir
caus
es o
f dea
th m
ay m
ore
clos
ely
rese
mbl
e th
ose
of th
e U
nite
d S
tate
sto
day.
As
life
expe
ctan
cy im
prov
es a
nd th
ero
le o
f inf
ectio
us, p
aras
itic,
and
res
pira
tory
dise
ases
dim
inis
hes,
mor
e pe
ople
will
sur
vive
to o
lder
age
s an
d ch
roni
c de
gene
rativ
e di
s-ea
ses
such
as
stro
ke, c
ance
r, a
nd h
eart
dis
ease
will
bec
ome
mor
e co
mm
on c
ause
s of
dea
th.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 28
Per
cent
of w
orld
's H
IV/A
IDS
case
s, 1
999
Eur
ope
Oce
ania
2.7%
0.1%
Am
eric
as7.
4%
Asi
a17
.8%
Afr
ica
71.9
%
Per
cent
of w
orld
pop
ulat
ion,
2000
Oce
ania
/Am
eric
as13
.6%
Sou
rces
: UN
AID
S, R
epor
t on
Glo
bal H
IV/A
IDS
Epi
dem
ic20
00; a
nd P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau,
200
0 W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Dat
a S
heet
.
C3
Doe
s A
IDS
hav
ea
sign
ifica
nt im
pact
on p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
?Y
es. T
he h
igh
degr
ee o
f HIV
prev
alen
cew
orld
wid
e ha
s ha
d a
dram
atic
impa
ct o
npo
pula
tion
grow
th r
ates
. In
the
early
1990
s,fe
w e
xper
ts p
redi
cted
the
curr
ent l
evel
of
HIV
/AID
S c
ases
. In
fact
, man
y be
lieve
dth
atA
IDS
wou
ld h
ave
little
or
no im
pact
on
popu
-la
tion
grow
th. A
t tha
t tim
e, it
was
diff
icul
t to
pred
ict o
r im
agin
e th
at th
ere
wou
ldbe
any
coun
try
with
mor
e th
an 2
5 pe
rcen
t of t
hepo
pula
tion
ages
15
to 4
9 in
fect
ed w
ithH
IV.
Sin
ce th
e bu
boni
c pl
ague
of t
he 1
4th
cen-
tury
, no
epid
emic
has
had
as s
tron
g an
influ
-en
ce o
n po
pula
tion
grow
th a
s H
IV/A
IDS
. The
plag
ue, o
r B
lack
Dea
th, k
illed
an e
stim
ated
25
mill
ion
to 3
5 m
illio
n pe
ople
inE
urop
e al
one,
a nu
mbe
r th
at r
epre
sent
ed a
ppro
xim
atel
yon
e-th
ird o
f its
pop
ulat
ion.
Acc
ordi
ngto
rece
nt e
stim
ates
by
the
Join
t Uni
ted
Nat
ions
Pro
gram
me
on H
IV/A
IDS
(U
NA
IDS
) an
dth
eW
orld
Hea
lth O
rgan
izat
ion
(WH
O),
34.3
mil-
lion
peop
le a
re li
ving
with
HIV
in 2
000.
An
estim
ated
18.
8 m
illio
n pe
ople
hav
edi
ed fr
omA
IDS
sin
ce th
e be
ginn
ing
of th
eep
idem
ic.
In s
ome
regi
ons,
the
impa
ct o
f AID
Sha
sbe
en m
ore
pron
ounc
ed. I
nsu
b-S
ahar
anA
fric
a, 2
4.5
mill
ion
adul
ts a
nd c
hild
ren
are
liv-
ing
with
HIV
/AID
S. T
his
repr
esen
ts 7
1 pe
rcen
t
'41
of th
e gl
obal
HIV
/AID
Sca
ses
(see
cha
rt,
"Per
cent
of w
orld
's H
IV/A
IDS
cas
es,"
p. 2
8). I
n16
cou
ntrie
s in
this
reg
ion,
at l
east
one
out o
fev
ery
10 a
dults
is H
IV p
ositi
ve. I
nse
ven
ofth
ese
16 c
ount
ries,
one
adu
lt in
five
is li
ving
with
HIV
/AID
S.
The
AID
S e
pide
mic
has
nea
rlyer
ased
the
impr
ovem
ents
in li
fe e
xpec
tanc
yac
hiev
ed in
the
last
20
year
s. T
he U
NA
IDS
/WH
Ore
port
note
s th
at th
e m
ost d
irect
impa
ct h
as b
een
the
incr
ease
in th
e ov
eral
l num
ber o
f dea
ths.
In S
outh
Afr
ica,
mor
talit
ypa
ttern
s of
adu
ltsar
e m
uch
high
er th
an th
ey w
ould
hav
e be
enif
AID
S w
ere
not s
o pr
eval
ent.
HIV
/AID
S h
asal
so c
ause
d a
decr
ease
in li
feex
pect
ancy
inso
me
plac
es. I
n S
outh
ern
Afr
ica,
life
expe
ctan
-ci
es in
201
0 w
ill fa
ll to
leve
ls o
fon
ly 3
0 ye
ars
of a
gele
vels
that
exi
sted
at th
e be
ginn
ing
of th
e 20
th c
entu
ry. I
nfan
t and
child
mor
talit
yra
tes
in s
ome
coun
trie
s ar
e hi
gher
than
they
wou
ld h
ave
been
with
out A
IDS
. In
Zim
babw
e,A
IDS
cau
ses
70 p
erce
nt o
f the
dea
ths
amon
gch
ildre
n le
ss th
an 5
yea
rs o
fag
e.
HIV
/AID
S is
als
o af
fect
ing
the
popu
latio
nco
mpo
sitio
n of
man
y pl
aces
. The
pyr
amid
that
is u
sed
to m
odel
the
age
and
sex
stru
ctur
e of
apo
pula
tion
is p
roje
cted
to lo
okm
ore
like
ach
imne
y in
thes
e co
untr
ies,
as la
rge
num
bers
of a
dults
ove
r 30
die
. The
bas
e of
the
pyra
mid
is a
lso
less
bro
ad, a
sm
ore
wom
en b
ecom
ein
fect
ed a
nd h
ave
few
er c
hild
ren.
The
bas
e of
the
pyra
mid
will
narr
ow. I
n 20
yea
rs, t
here
may
be m
ore
peop
le a
ges
60 to
80
than
age
s 40
to60
. The
res
ult o
f a n
ewag
e an
d se
x st
ruct
ure
for
som
e po
pula
tions
will
be
low
ergr
owth
rate
s an
d po
ssib
ly d
eclin
ing
popu
latio
ns.
Glo
bal p
opul
atio
n is
stil
l pro
ject
edto
incr
ease
desp
ite th
e di
seas
e si
nce
birt
hra
tes
rem
ain
high
and
gro
wth
rat
es in
mos
t pla
ces
cont
inue
to b
e po
sitiv
e. T
he g
reat
est i
mpa
ct o
f HIV
/AID
Sis
that
the
rate
of g
row
th is
now
low
er.
TE
RM
SIn
fant
mor
talit
y ra
te (
IMR
)T
he n
umbe
r of
dea
ths
of in
fant
sun
der
age
1 pe
r 1,
000
live
birt
hsin
a g
iven
yea
r.
Life
exp
ecta
ncy
The
aver
age
num
ber
of a
dditi
onal
yea
rs a
pers
on o
f a g
iven
age
cou
ld
expe
ct to
live
if c
urre
nt m
orta
l-ity
tren
ds w
ere
to c
ontin
ue fo
rth
e re
st o
f tha
t per
son'
s lif
e.M
ost c
omm
only
cite
d as
life
expe
ctan
cy a
t birt
h.
Mor
talit
y D
eath
s as
aco
mpo
-ne
nt o
f pop
ulat
ion
chan
ge.
Pre
vale
nce
rate
The
num
ber
of p
erso
ns h
avin
g a
part
icul
ardi
seas
e at
a g
iven
poi
nt in
tim
epe
r 1,
000
popu
latio
n at
ris
k. 65
L
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
ndC
hang
e 29
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 30
PE
R C
AP
ITA
AN
NU
AL
RE
NE
WA
BLE
FR
ES
HW
AT
ER
AV
AIL
AB
ILIT
Y, 1
950,
199
5, 2
050
Wat
er (
in c
ubic
met
ers)
1950
1995
2050
00 00
O N LA
0 N
In CO 00 a
O 00
N Ln
CO
00O
Ban
glad
esh
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Mex
ico
Ken
yaJo
rdan
Sou
rce:
Pop
ulat
ion
Act
ion
Inte
rnat
iona
l, S
usta
inin
g W
ater
, Era
sing
Sca
rcity
.
GG
Pop
ulat
ion
grow
th a
nddi
strib
utio
nha
ve s
igni
fican
t rol
es to
pla
y in
the
sust
ain-
abili
ty o
f the
wor
ld's
vas
tre
sour
ces.
Not
onl
yth
e nu
mbe
r of
peo
ple,
but
als
oth
e lif
esty
le,
cons
umpt
ion-
pat
tern
s, a
nd r
egio
nspe
ople
inha
bit a
nd u
tiliz
e di
rect
lY-a
ffect
_the
envi
ron-
men
t. T
he r
elat
ions
hip
betw
een
popu
latr
on-
grow
th a
nd e
nviro
nmen
tal d
egra
datio
n m
ayap
pear
to b
e ra
ther
str
aigh
tforw
ard.
Mor
epe
ople
dem
and
mor
ere
sour
ces
and
gene
rate
mor
e w
aste
. Cle
arly
one
of t
he c
halle
nges
ofa
grow
ing
popu
latio
n is
that
the
mer
e pr
es-
ence
of s
o m
any
peop
le s
harin
ga
limite
dnu
mbe
r of
res
ourc
es s
trai
ns th
een
viro
nmen
t.B
ut w
hen
look
ing
at th
e im
pact
of h
uman
activ
ities
, the
situ
atio
n is
mor
e co
mpl
icat
eddu
e to
the
wid
e va
riety
of
gove
rnm
ent p
oli-
cies
, tec
hnol
ogie
s, a
nd c
onsu
mpt
ion
patte
rns
wor
ldw
ide.
The
link
bet
wee
n po
pula
tion
grow
th a
ndth
e en
viro
nmen
t is
foun
dso
mew
here
betw
een
the
view
that
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th is
sole
ly r
espo
nsib
le fo
r al
l env
ironm
enta
l ills
and
the
view
that
mor
e pe
ople
mea
ns th
ede
velo
pmen
t of n
ew te
chno
logi
esto
ove
r-co
me
any
envi
ronm
enta
l pro
blem
s. M
ost
envi
ronm
enta
lists
agr
ee th
at p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
is o
nly
one
of s
ever
alin
tera
ctin
g fa
c-to
rs th
at p
lace
pre
ssur
e on
the
envi
ronm
ent.
-Hig
h le
vels
of c
onsu
mpt
ion
and
indu
stria
liza-
tion,
ineq
ualit
y in
wea
lth a
nd la
nddi
strib
u-tio
n, in
appr
opria
te g
over
nmen
tpo
licie
s,po
vert
y, a
nd in
effic
ient
tech
nolo
gies
all c
on-
trib
ute
to e
nviro
nmen
tal d
eclin
e.In
fact
,
popu
latio
n m
ay n
ot b
e a
root
caus
e in
env
i-ro
nmen
tal d
eclin
e, b
ut r
athe
r jus
t one
fact
oram
ong
man
y th
at e
xace
rbat
e or
mul
tiply
the
nega
tive
effe
cts
of o
ther
soc
ial,
econ
omic
,an
d po
litic
al fa
ctor
s.M
any
of th
e w
orld
's p
opul
atio
n liv
ein
poor
cou
ntrie
s al
read
y st
rain
ed b
y fo
odin
se-
curit
y; "
inad
equa
tesa
nita
tion,
wat
er s
uppl
ies
and
hous
ing;
and
an-
inab
ility
to m
eet t
heba
sic
need
s of
the
curr
ent p
opul
atio
n:T
hese
sam
e co
untr
ies
are
also
am
ong
the
fast
est
grow
ing
plac
es in
the
wor
ld. A
larg
epr
opor
-tio
n of
thes
e po
pula
tions
are
supp
orte
dth
roug
h su
bsis
tenc
e ag
ricul
ture
.A
s po
pula
-tio
ns g
row
, com
petit
ion
for
fert
ilela
nd a
ndth
e us
e of
lim
ited
reso
urce
s in
crea
ses.
The
peop
le li
ving
in th
ese
coun
trie
sar
e al
so m
ov-
ing
tow
ard
a gr
eate
r st
anda
rdof
livi
ng, p
er-
haps
mat
chin
g th
e lif
esty
les
of th
em
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies
who
secu
rren
t con
sum
p-tio
n pa
ttern
s an
dre
sour
ce u
se a
re n
ot n
eces
-sa
rily
sust
aina
ble.
FO
OD
PR
OD
UC
TIO
NM
eetin
g th
e in
crea
sing
dem
and
for
food
ispr
obab
ly th
e m
ost b
asic
cha
lleng
ean
d th
em
ost s
alie
nt p
opul
atio
n an
d en
viro
nmen
tal
cris
is. B
ut th
e fe
ar th
at p
opul
atio
n_si
zew
ould
-on
e da
y ex
ceed
the
food
sup
ply
has
not
prov
ed tr
ue. W
ith th
e de
velo
pmen
tof
fert
il-iz
ers,
pes
ticid
es, a
ndm
ore
effic
ient
farm
ing
tech
niqu
es, c
rop
yiel
ds p
erac
re h
ave
incr
ease
d an
d th
e am
ount
of l
and
unde
r cu
lti-
vatio
n ha
s ex
pand
ed. W
orld
food
prod
uctio
n
has
kept
pac
e w
ith p
opul
atio
ngr
owth
. Yet
ironi
cally
, mill
ions
of p
eopl
e do
not h
ave
enou
gh to
eat
. Foo
d in
secu
rity
is o
ften
are
sult
of th
e un
avai
labi
lity
offo
od, i
nsuf
fi-ci
ent p
urch
asin
g po
wer
, ina
ppro
pria
tedi
stri-
butio
n, o
r in
adeq
uate
use
of fo
od a
t the
hous
ehol
d le
vel.
Pov
erty
, nat
ural
disa
ster
s,po
litic
al v
iole
nce,
, and
oth
erge
opol
itica
l fac
-to
rs c
reat
e a
disp
ropo
rtio
nate
dist
ribut
ion
ofth
e w
orld
's fo
od.
The
gai
ns in
food
pro
duct
ion
have
been
a re
sult
of in
crea
sed
yiel
ds in
fert
ile la
nds
and
new
cul
tivat
ion
of m
argi
nal l
ands
thro
ugh
indu
stria
l agr
icul
ture
. How
ever
,im
prop
er u
seof
mac
hine
ry, c
hem
ical
s, a
ndex
tens
ive
irrig
a-tio
n, h
as r
esul
ted
in th
e de
grad
atio
nof
land
and
wat
er r
esou
rces
. Lan
d is
mad
e vu
lner
able
to w
ind
and
wat
er e
rosi
on. M
isgu
ided
irrig
a-tio
n pr
actic
es c
an m
ean
an in
crea
se in
soi
lsa
linity
and
a g
reat
er d
eman
don
irre
plac
e-ab
le g
roun
dwat
er. C
hem
ical
runo
ff fr
om fe
r-til
izer
s an
d pe
stic
ides
als
o da
mag
ew
ater
reso
urce
s.
Non
indu
stria
l far
min
g or
trad
ition
alag
ri-cu
lture
that
con
tinue
s to
inte
nsify
in le
ssde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s of
ten
invo
lves
the
culti
-va
tion
of fr
agile
soi
ls th
atar
e di
fficu
lt to
farm
, suc
h as
dry
land
s, h
ighl
ands
,an
d fo
rest
s.W
hen
farm
land
exp
ands
tow
ard
frag
ile la
nds
in o
rder
to k
eep
pace
with
the
need
s of
agr
owin
g po
pula
tion
in a
reg
ion,
itca
n le
ad to
defo
rest
atio
n, e
rosi
on, a
nd d
eser
tific
atio
n.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
ndC
hang
e 31
WA
TE
R R
ES
OU
RC
E M
AN
AG
EM
EN
TP
opul
atio
n gr
owth
and
dis
trib
utio
n ha
veal
way
s be
en li
nked
to th
e av
aila
bilit
y of
fres
hwat
er a
nd th
e su
stai
nabi
lity
of r
enew
-ab
le w
ater
res
ourc
es. T
he d
eman
d fo
r w
ater
has
grow
n si
gnifi
cant
ly o
ver
the
last
50
year
sno
t onl
y be
caus
e of
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th, b
utal
so b
ecau
se o
f an
incr
ease
in th
e us
es o
fw
ater
for
hous
ehol
ds, a
gric
ultu
re, a
nd in
dus-
tria
l pro
duct
ion.
App
ropr
iate
man
agem
ent o
fth
e w
orld
's w
ater
res
ourc
es is
ess
entia
l for
mee
ting
the
dem
ands
of a
gro
win
g po
pula
-tio
n an
d fo
r ex
pand
ing
wat
er u
ses.
At t
hesa
me
time,
we
mus
t als
o pr
even
t the
furt
her
degr
adat
ion
of o
ur w
ater
sou
rces
and
cle
anup
pol
lute
d w
ater
s.A
sig
nific
ant n
umbe
r of
the
wor
ld's
pop
u-la
tion
lack
acc
ess
to a
n ad
equa
te s
uppl
y of
safe
wat
er fo
r ho
useh
old
use.
In c
erta
in le
ssde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s, m
ore
than
one
-hal
f of
the
popu
latio
n is
with
out a
cces
s to
saf
ew
ater
. In
Hai
ti, a
n av
erag
e of
onl
y 37
per
cent
of th
e po
pula
tion
had
acce
ss to
saf
e w
ater
betw
een
1990
and
199
7. W
ater
sho
rtag
es a
ndpo
llute
d w
ater
s ca
n le
ad to
food
inse
curit
yan
d m
ajor
hea
lth p
robl
ems
amon
g th
ew
orld
's p
oor.
Bec
ause
wat
er d
oes
not s
top
at n
atio
nal
boun
darie
s, th
e us
e of
wat
er u
pstr
eam
, pol
lu-
tion,
and
red
uced
flow
s w
ill a
ffect
cou
ntrie
sdo
wns
trea
m. T
he fu
ture
of t
he w
orld
's w
ater
reso
urce
s de
pend
s on
impr
ovin
g m
anag
emen
tpo
licie
s an
d pr
actic
es g
loba
lly. W
ater
man
age-
men
t ins
titut
ions
mus
t inc
orpo
rate
effi
cien
tte
chni
ques
for
usin
g w
ater
in in
dust
ry a
ndag
ricul
ture
. And
mos
t im
port
ant,
man
age-
men
t pol
icie
s m
ust i
nvol
ve th
e in
tere
sts
of th
elo
cal c
omm
unity
in c
olla
bora
tion
with
na-
tiona
l gov
ernm
ents
in o
rder
to p
rote
ct w
ater
right
s an
d en
sure
suc
cess
of p
rogr
ams.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 32
Sha
re o
f pop
ulat
ion
and
ener
gy p
rodu
ctio
n an
d co
nsum
ptio
n,19
95
Pop
ulat
ion
Org
aniz
atio
n fo
rE
cono
mic
Coo
pera
tion
and
Dev
elop
men
t
Ene
rgy
prod
uctio
n
For
mer
Sov
iet R
epub
lics
and
Cen
tral
Eur
ope
Sou
rces
: Pop
ulat
ion
Ref
eren
ce B
urea
u, 2
000
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n D
ata
She
et; a
nd W
orld
Res
ourc
es In
stitu
te, 1
998-
99 W
orld
Res
ourc
es.
Ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion
Oth
erco
untr
ies
EN
ER
GY
Incr
ease
d po
pula
tion
size
and
incr
ease
d ec
o-no
mic
dev
elop
men
t has
led
to th
e st
eady
ris
eof
glo
bal e
nerg
y us
e fo
r m
any
deca
des
and
isex
pect
ed to
con
tinue
. The
cur
rent
dis
trib
utio
nof
ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion
does
not
equ
al th
edi
strib
utio
n of
glo
bal p
opul
atio
n. T
he c
hart
"Sha
re o
f pop
ulat
ion
and
ener
gy p
rodu
ctio
nan
d co
nsum
ptio
n" (
abov
e), s
how
s th
at in
1995
, the
wea
lthie
st in
dust
rializ
ed c
ount
ries,
mem
bers
of t
he O
rgan
izat
ion
for
Eco
nom
icC
oope
ratio
n an
d D
evel
opm
ent (
OE
CD
), m
ade
up o
nly
17 p
erce
nt o
f the
wor
ld's
pop
ulat
ion
but c
onsu
med
mor
e th
an h
alf o
f all
its e
n-er
gy. T
hese
cou
ntrie
s al
so p
rodu
ce 4
1 pe
rcen
tof
the
wor
ld's
ene
rgy.
In c
ontr
ast,
coun
trie
sw
here
thre
e-qu
arte
rs o
f the
pop
ulat
ion
live
acco
unte
d fo
r on
ly o
ne-t
hird
of w
orld
ene
rgy
cons
umpt
ion.
Les
s de
velo
ped
coun
trie
s ar
eex
pect
ed to
incr
ease
thei
r sh
are
of w
orld
ener
gy u
se to
alm
ost 4
0 pe
rcen
t in
the
next
10 y
ears
.
The
vas
t maj
ority
of e
nerg
y co
mes
from
the
burn
ing
of fo
ssil
fuel
s (o
il, n
atur
al g
as,
and
coal
). T
he in
crea
sed
use
of fo
ssil
fuel
s ha
sa
nega
tive
effe
ct o
n th
e he
alth
of t
he e
nvi-
ronm
ent i
n te
rms
of a
ir an
d w
ater
pol
lutio
n.A
ir po
llutio
n fr
om g
reat
er c
oal u
se a
nd v
ehi-
cle
exha
ust h
as le
d to
aci
d ra
in, w
hich
is p
ar-
ticul
arly
dam
agin
g to
fore
sts,
lake
s, a
ndst
ream
s. R
isin
g fo
ssil
fuel
use
als
o m
eans
agr
eate
r bu
ild-u
p of
car
bon
diox
ide
in th
eat
mos
pher
e, h
ighe
r gr
eenh
ouse
gas
em
is-
sion
s, a
nd g
loba
l war
min
g.T
he e
nviro
nmen
tal c
osts
of u
sing
foss
ilfu
els
have
led
to e
ffort
s to
dec
reas
e th
eir
leve
l of u
se. A
ltern
ativ
e en
ergy
sou
rces
that
are
mor
e ef
ficie
nt a
re b
eing
sou
ght,
such
as
rene
wab
le r
esou
rces
like
hyd
ropo
wer
and
sola
r po
wer
. Red
ucin
g th
e en
viro
nmen
tal
cost
s fr
om e
nerg
y co
nsum
ptio
n an
d en
surin
gth
ere
will
be
an a
dequ
ate
supp
ly o
f ene
rgy
for
the
futu
re in
volv
es th
e ca
refu
l man
age-
men
t of e
xist
ing
and
pote
ntia
l res
ourc
es.
Doe
s th
e re
latio
nshi
p be
twee
n po
pula
tion
and
the
envi
ronm
ent v
ary
by r
egio
n?Y
es. W
hen
mos
t peo
ple
link
popu
latio
ngr
owth
and
env
ironm
enta
l deg
rada
tion,
they
are
usua
lly r
efer
ring
to le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
n-tr
ies,
whe
re m
ost o
f the
wor
ld's
peo
ple
live
and
popu
latio
n gr
owth
is h
igh.
But
env
iron-
men
tal p
robl
ems
exis
t in
all c
ount
ries
rega
rd-
less
of t
he le
vel o
f dev
elop
men
t. M
ost o
f the
envi
ronm
enta
l deg
rada
tion
in in
dust
rializ
edco
untr
ies,
whe
re o
nly
20 p
erce
nt o
f the
wor
ld's
peo
ple
live,
is a
ttrib
utab
le to
hig
hco
nsum
ptio
n pa
ttern
s; e
ach
indi
vidu
al in
an
indu
stria
lized
cou
ntry
exe
rts
mor
e pr
essu
reon
the
envi
ronm
ent t
han
perh
aps
20 to
30
peop
le in
the
less
dev
elop
ed w
orld
. For
exa
m-
ple,
con
sum
ptio
n pa
ttern
s in
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
are
indi
cativ
e of
the
indu
stria
lized
wor
ld's
dis
prop
ortio
nate
use
of g
loba
lre
sour
ces.
The
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
has
5 pe
rcen
t of
the
wor
ld's
pop
ulat
ion,
use
s an
est
imat
ed 3
3pe
rcen
t of t
he w
orld
's r
esou
rces
, and
cau
ses
an e
stim
ated
33
perc
ent o
f the
wor
ld's
pol
lu-
tion.
Acc
ordi
ng to
one
est
imat
e, th
e av
erag
eA
mer
ican
use
s at
leas
t 30
times
the
amou
ntof
res
ourc
es a
s a
pers
on li
ving
in In
dia.
Exp
erts
are
atte
mpt
ing
to fi
nd q
uant
ita-
tive
way
s to
con
side
r bo
th c
onsu
mpt
ion
pat-
tern
s an
d po
pula
tion
size
whe
n de
term
inin
g
the
link
betw
een
peop
le a
nd th
e en
viro
n-m
ent.
Env
ironm
enta
lists
hav
e be
en u
sing
an
equa
tion
know
n as
l =
PA
T, w
hich
atte
mpt
s to
fact
or b
oth
caus
es in
to d
eter
min
ing
envi
ron-
men
tal i
mpa
cts.
Env
ironm
enta
lP
opul
atio
nA
fflue
nce
(or
Con
sum
ptio
n) x
Tec
hnol
ogy
Impa
ctS
ize
The
cau
ses
of tr
opic
al d
efor
esta
tion
liebo
th in
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th in
less
dev
elop
edco
untr
ies
and
cons
umpt
ion
leve
ls in
mor
ede
velo
ped
coun
trie
s. H
owev
er, f
or s
ome
othe
ren
viro
nmen
tal p
robl
ems
such
as
ozon
ede
plet
ion,
mos
t of t
he d
amag
e is
due
to th
eus
e of
ref
riger
ator
s an
d ai
r co
nditi
onin
gsy
stem
s in
indu
stria
lized
cou
ntrie
s, n
ot to
popu
latio
n gr
owth
.
1- c
if6
6.7
The
adv
erse
env
ironm
enta
l im
pact
of
cons
umpt
ion
patte
rns
in m
ore
deve
lope
dco
untr
ies
is li
kely
to in
crea
se a
s le
ss d
evel
-op
ed c
ount
ries
furt
her
indu
stria
lize
and
adop
t con
sum
ptio
n pa
ttern
s si
mila
r to
thos
eof
thei
r m
ore
finan
cial
ly w
ealth
y ne
ighb
ors.
Alre
ady,
elit
es in
the
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
mim
ic th
e pr
olifi
c co
nsum
ptio
n of
ric
hA
mer
ican
s or
Eur
opea
ns. C
onsu
mpt
ion
has
surg
ed in
Chi
na a
nd In
dia
sinc
e th
e 19
80s
and,
with
the
fall
of th
e U
SS
R, E
aste
rnE
urop
eans
hav
e in
crea
sed
thei
r ap
petit
es fo
rco
nsum
er g
oods
. The
mos
t rap
id g
row
th in
ener
gy c
onsu
mpt
ion
now
occ
urs
in le
ss d
evel
-op
ed c
ount
ries
beca
use
of r
isin
g af
fluen
ce,
cons
umpt
ion,
and
pop
ulat
ion.
TE
RM
SD
efor
esta
tion
The
loss
of
tree
s du
e to
ove
rcut
ting
offo
rest
s. O
ne c
onse
quen
ce o
fde
fore
stat
ion
is s
oil e
rosi
on,
whi
ch r
esul
ts in
the
loss
of p
ro-
tect
ive
soil
cove
r an
d th
e w
ater
-ho
ldin
g ca
paci
ty o
f the
soi
l.
Des
ertif
icat
ion
The
pro
cess
of
gras
slan
ds b
eing
con
vert
ed to
dese
rt m
ainl
y as
a r
esul
t of
defo
rest
atio
n, o
verg
razi
ng, a
nder
osio
n du
e to
poo
r la
ndm
anag
emen
t.
Foo
d in
secu
rity
A s
ituat
ion
that
exi
sts
whe
n pe
ople
lack
secu
re a
cces
s to
suf
ficie
ntam
ount
s of
saf
e an
d nu
triti
ous
food
for
norm
al g
row
th a
ndde
velo
pmen
t and
an
activ
e an
dhe
alth
y lif
e. F
ood
inse
curit
y m
aybe
chr
onic
, sea
sona
l, or
tran
sito
ry.
Fos
sil f
uel A
gro
up o
f prim
ary
ener
gy s
ourc
es c
reat
ed fr
om th
ein
com
plet
e bi
olog
ical
dec
ompo
-si
tion
of d
ead
orga
nic
mat
ter.
The
foss
il fu
els
incl
ude
oil,
coal
,an
d na
tura
l gas
and
acc
ount
for
abou
t 90
perc
ent o
f all
the
ener
gy c
onsu
med
in th
e w
orld
.
Irrig
atio
n T
he p
ract
ice
of s
up-
plyi
ng la
nd w
ith w
ater
art
ifi-
cial
ly b
y m
eans
of d
itche
s, p
ipes
,or
str
eam
s.
Ren
ewab
le w
ater
The
sur
face
wat
er r
unof
f fro
m lo
cal p
reci
pi-
tatio
n, th
e in
flow
from
oth
erre
gion
s, a
nd th
e gr
ound
wat
erre
char
ge th
at r
eple
nish
esaq
uife
rs.
Sub
sist
ence
agr
icul
ture
Far
min
g at
a le
vel a
t whi
ch o
nly
enou
gh fo
od is
pro
duce
d to
mee
t im
med
iate
loca
l nee
ds.
Hum
an P
opul
atio
n: F
unda
men
tals
of G
row
th a
nd C
hang
e 33
The
Pop
ulat
ion
Ref
eren
ce B
urea
u is
the
lead
er in
pro
vidi
ng ti
mel
y, o
bjec
tive
info
r-m
atio
n on
U.S
. and
inte
rnat
iona
l pop
ula-
tion
tren
ds a
nd th
eir
impl
icat
ions
. PR
Bin
form
s po
licym
aker
s, e
duca
tors
, the
med
ia,
and
conc
erne
d ci
tizen
s w
orki
ng in
the
pub-
lic in
tere
st a
roun
d th
e w
orld
thro
ugh
abr
oad
rang
e of
act
iviti
es in
clud
ing
publ
ica-
tions
, inf
orm
atio
n se
rvic
es, s
emin
ars
and
wor
ksho
ps, a
nd te
chni
cal s
uppo
rt. P
RB
is a
nonp
rofit
, non
advo
cacy
org
aniz
atio
n.
Mem
bers
hip
in P
RB
will
pro
vide
you
with
publ
icat
ions
and
info
rmat
ion
desi
gned
togi
ve y
ou u
nbia
sed
and
accu
rate
rep
ortin
g,an
d tim
ely
mat
eria
l. A
mon
g yo
ur m
any
ben-
efits
as
a P
RB
mem
ber
are
the
Pop
ulat
ion
Tod
ay n
ewsl
ette
r, th
e qu
arte
rly P
opul
atio
nB
ulle
tin, a
nd th
e an
nual
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
nD
ata
She
et.
Mem
bers
hip
is a
vaila
ble
to e
duca
tors
for
$39.
To
orde
r pu
blic
atio
ns o
r be
gin
your
mem
bers
hip,
cal
l PR
B(1
-800
-877
-988
1) o
r vi
sit o
urw
ebsi
te (
ww
w.p
rb.o
rg).
74.
RE
LAT
ED
PM
PU
BLO
CA
VO
NS
-W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion:
Mor
e T
han
Just
Num
bers
Thi
s P
RB
pub
licat
ion
prov
ides
aqu
ick,
cle
ar, a
nd c
ompr
ehen
sive
disc
ussi
on o
f wor
ld p
opul
atio
ntr
ends
in th
e 21
st c
entu
ry.
Inte
rnat
iona
l Pop
ulat
ion
Han
dboo
kT
his
hand
book
is a
qui
ck g
uide
topo
pula
tion
dyna
mic
s an
d ex
plai
nsho
w to
cal
cula
te a
nd u
se m
ajor
rate
s, r
atio
s, a
nd o
ther
mea
sure
s.
US
in th
e W
orld
A s
et o
f 41
fact
she
ets,
eac
h of
whi
ch p
rofil
es th
e po
pula
tion-
envi
ronm
ent t
rend
s of
a s
tate
and
its c
ompa
rabl
e de
velo
ping
coun
try.
The
Pop
ulat
ion
Sto
ry:
Pre
sent
atio
n G
uide
Vie
w a
nd d
ownl
oad
51 c
olor
ful
grap
hics
and
acc
ompa
nyin
gno
tesa
ll of
whi
ch te
ll th
est
ory
of p
opul
atio
n. (
only
ava
il-ab
le o
nlin
e: w
ww
.prb
.org
)
Pop
ulat
ion:
A L
ivel
y In
trod
uctio
nA
dis
cuss
ion
of th
e ba
sic
forc
es o
fde
mog
raph
ic c
hang
e an
d co
m-
mon
ass
essm
ent m
easu
res.
-2-
III
ekk.
11)
'27:
411.
Ik
41,
"..
13...
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of th
e P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
Dem
ogra
phic
Dat
a an
d E
stim
ates
for
the
Cou
ntrie
s an
d R
egio
ns o
f the
Wor
ld
BO
OK
ED
ITIO
N
-
Tab
le o
f Con
tent
sB
OO
K E
DIT
ION
New
Dat
a C
olum
n F
eatu
res
1
Pop
ulat
ion
data
for:
Wor
ld2
Afr
ica
2-3
Nor
th A
mer
ica
4La
tin A
mer
ica
& th
e C
arib
bean
4-5
Oce
ania
5A
sia
6-7
Eur
ope
8-9
Ack
now
ledg
men
ts, N
otes
,S
ourc
es, a
nd D
efin
ition
s10
-11
Abo
ut th
e P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
12
Cop
yrig
ht ©
200
1 P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau,
May
200
1IS
SN
008
5-83
15D
ata
prep
ared
by
PR
B d
emog
raph
ers
Car
l Hau
b an
d D
iana
Cor
neliu
sD
esig
n an
d pr
oduc
tion:
Hea
ther
Lill
ey, P
RB
Pho
to ©
200
0 A
rtvi
lle
POO
Popu
latio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
1875
Con
nect
icut
Ave
., N
W, S
uite
520
Was
hing
ton,
DC
200
09-5
728
USA
Tel
.: (2
02)
483-
1100
Fax:
(20
2) 3
28-3
937
E-m
ail:
popr
ef@
prb.
org
7 8
Web
site
: ww
w.p
rb.o
rg-.
"71
,Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n D
ata
She
et H
ighl
ight
sA
IDS
With
mor
e th
an 2
3 m
illio
n ad
ults
livi
ng w
ith H
IV/A
IDS,
sub
-Sah
aran
Afr
ica
is r
avag
ed b
y th
is e
pi-
dem
ic. A
n as
toun
ding
36
perc
ent o
f B
otsw
ana'
s 15
- to
49-
year
-old
s liv
e w
ith th
e di
seas
e. I
n L
esot
ho,
Swaz
iland
, and
Zim
babw
e, a
ppro
xim
atel
y 25
per
cent
of
adul
ts in
thes
e pr
ime
ages
hav
e H
IV N
amib
ia,
Sout
h A
fric
a, a
nd Z
ambi
a ea
ch h
ave
prev
alen
ce r
ates
of
20 p
erce
nt a
mon
g ad
ults
age
s 15
to 4
9. I
nan
othe
r ni
ne s
ub-S
ahar
an A
fric
an c
ount
ries
, mor
e th
an 1
0 pe
rcen
t of
adul
ts a
ges
15 to
49
are
infe
cted
.So
uth
Afr
ica
has
the
high
est n
umbe
r of
adu
lts li
ving
with
the
viru
s, a
t abo
ut 4
.1 m
illio
n. N
earl
y 3
mil-
lion
Eth
iopi
an a
dults
live
with
HIV
.O
utsi
de o
f su
b-Sa
hara
n A
fric
a, th
e la
rges
t num
bers
of
peop
le in
fect
ed w
ith H
IV o
r liv
ing
with
AID
Sar
e in
Ind
ia, a
t 3.5
mill
ion.
Glo
bally
, 15.
7 m
illio
n ad
ults
with
AID
S ar
e w
omen
and
1.3
mill
ion
are
child
ren
belo
w th
e ag
e of
15.
Pop
ulat
ion
Dec
line
in E
urop
eM
any
Eur
opea
n po
pula
tions
are
exp
erie
ncin
g m
ore
deat
hs th
an b
irth
s an
nual
ly, a
phe
nom
enon
that
isno
t occ
urri
ng in
any
oth
er w
orld
reg
ion.
Ukr
aine
and
Rus
sia
have
the
larg
est g
aps
betw
een
birt
h ra
tes
and
deat
h ra
tes.
The
pop
ulat
ion
of U
krai
ne is
losi
ng a
bout
340
,000
peo
ple
each
yea
r fr
om h
avin
g m
ore
deat
hs th
an b
irth
s an
d th
e po
pula
tion
of R
ussi
a is
losi
ng 9
50,0
00 p
eopl
e. I
n th
e ab
senc
e of
off
setti
ngin
tern
atio
nal m
igra
tion,
the
popu
latio
n of
thes
e co
untr
ies
will
dec
line
in s
ize.
In
addi
tion
to v
ery
low
birt
h ra
tes,
a c
hief
cau
se f
or s
urpl
us E
urop
ean
deat
hs is
the
rela
tivel
y hi
gh p
ropo
rtio
n of
the
regi
on's
popu
latio
n in
the
olde
r ag
es w
here
dea
th r
ates
are
hig
her.
Fif
teen
per
cent
of
Eur
ope'
s po
pula
tion
is a
ge65
or
olde
r, c
ompa
red
with
7 p
erce
nt f
or th
e w
orld
.
Pop
ulat
ion
Gro
wth
in L
ess
Dev
elop
ed C
ount
ries
Nea
rly
all o
f th
e w
orld
's p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
con
tinue
s to
occ
ur in
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
. Wor
ld p
opul
atio
n in
crea
ses
by a
bout
83 m
illio
n an
nual
ly-9
9 pe
rcen
t of
this
incr
ease
occ
urs
in th
e le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntri
es o
f A
fric
a, A
sia,
Lat
in A
mer
ica
and
the
Car
ibbe
an, a
nd O
cean
ia. A
ccor
ding
to c
urre
nt p
opul
atio
n pr
ojec
tions
, onl
y th
ree
of th
e m
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies,
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es,
Rus
sia,
and
Jap
an, a
re e
xpec
ted
to r
emai
n am
ong
the
wor
ld's
mos
t pop
ulou
s by
202
5. T
he U
nite
d St
ates
is e
xpec
ted
to r
emai
n in
thir
d pl
ace,
but
Rus
sia
will
dro
p fr
om s
even
th to
nin
th, J
apan
will
dro
p fr
om n
inth
to e
leve
nth,
and
Ger
man
y w
ill n
o lo
nger
be
inth
e to
p fi
ftee
n.
Wor
ld's
Lar
gest
Cou
ntrie
sin
200
1W
orld
's L
arge
st C
ount
ries
in 2
025
Ran
kC
ount
ryP
opul
atio
n(m
illio
ns)
Ran
kP
opul
atio
nC
ount
ry(m
illio
ns)
1C
hina
1,27
31
Chi
na1,
431
2In
dia
1,03
32
Indi
a1,
363
3U
nite
d S
tate
s28
53
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
346
4In
done
sia
206
4In
done
sia
272
5B
razi
l17
25
Pak
ista
n25
26
Pak
ista
n14
56
Bra
zil
219
7R
ussi
a14
47
Nig
eria
204
8B
angl
ades
h13
48
Ban
glad
esh
181
9Ja
pan
127
9R
ussi
a13
710
Nig
eria
127
10M
exic
o13
111
Mex
ico
100
11Ja
pan
121
12G
erm
any
8212
Eth
iopi
a11
813
Vie
tnam
7913
Phi
lippi
nes
108
14P
hilip
pine
s77
14C
ongo
, Dem
ocra
tic15
Egy
pt70
Rep
ublic
of (
Zai
re)
106
15V
ietn
am...
179
104
New
Dat
a C
olum
n F
eatu
res
Thi
s ye
ar, s
ever
al s
igni
fican
t cha
nges
have
bee
n m
ade
to th
e D
ata
She
et.
Firs
t, gi
ven
the
rapi
dly
grow
ing
impo
rtan
ce o
fH
IV/A
IDS
in b
oth
the
mor
talit
y le
vel a
nd c
onse
-
quen
ces
for
popu
latio
n pr
ojec
tions
, for
the
fore
see-
able
fut
ure
an a
nnua
l HIV
/AID
S pr
eval
ence
colu
mn
will
be
feat
ured
. Dem
ogra
pher
s on
ce
poin
ted
out t
hat p
opul
atio
n pr
ojec
tions
rar
ely,
ifev
er, i
ncor
pora
ted
any
antic
ipat
ed e
ffec
ts o
f fu
ture
epid
emic
s or
fam
ines
into
thei
r pr
ojec
tions
, but
AID
S ha
s ch
ange
d al
l tha
t. A
IDS
has
emer
ged
asa
vari
able
eve
ry b
it as
impo
rtan
t as
infa
nt m
or-
talit
y or
life
exp
ecta
ncy
and,
of
cour
se, a
ffec
tsev
en th
ose
vari
able
s.
Seco
nd, a
fter
com
men
ts f
rom
use
rs, i
t was
deci
ded
to r
emov
e "d
oubl
ing
time"
fro
m th
e D
ata
Shee
t, la
rgel
y be
caus
e it
has
beco
me
som
ewha
t
irre
leva
nt, p
artic
ular
ly in
mos
t mor
e de
velo
ped
coun
trie
s. I
t is
still
val
uabl
e as
a. t
each
ing
tool
tosh
ow th
at a
see
min
gly
low
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th r
ate
such
as
3 pe
rcen
t rea
lly is
qui
te h
igh.
We
will
cont
inue
to f
eatu
re h
ow d
oubl
ing
time
is c
alcu
lat-
ed a
nd it
s si
gnif
ican
ce in
the
note
s se
ctio
n of
the
Dat
a Sh
eet.
Dou
blin
g tim
e ha
s be
en r
epla
ced
bya
colu
mn
show
ing
the
perc
enta
ge g
row
th o
r
decl
ine
in p
opul
atio
n si
ze a
ntic
ipat
ed f
rom
the
base
yea
r (2
001
in th
is c
ase)
to m
idce
ntur
y. T
hat
perc
enta
ge c
an ta
ke in
to a
ccou
nt p
opul
atio
n
chan
ge r
esul
ting
from
ant
icip
ated
tren
ds in
fer
til-
ity, m
orta
lity,
and
mig
ratio
n.
Fina
lly, t
he c
olum
n on
Gro
ss N
atio
nal
Prod
uct (
now
cal
led
Gro
ss N
atio
nal I
ncom
e, o
rG
NI,
by
the
Wor
ld B
ank)
has
bee
n re
plac
ed b
yG
NI
adju
sted
for
Pur
chas
ing
Pow
er P
arity
or
PPP
(see
acc
ompa
nyin
g te
xt).
The
Val
ue o
f 'D
oubl
ing
Tim
e'T
he d
oubl
ing
time
of a
pop
ulat
ion
is s
im-
ply
the
num
ber
of y
ears
it w
ould
take
for
apo
pula
tion
to d
oubl
e in
siz
e if
the
pres
ent
Num
ber
of y
ears
to d
oubl
e70
0
600
500
400
300
200
100
If a
coun
try'
s po
pula
tion
cont
inue
s to
grow
at a
con
stan
t rat
e of
2 p
erce
nt,
it w
ill d
oubl
e in
siz
e ev
ery
35 y
ears
.70
÷ 2
.0 =
35
35 Y
ears
2.0
Per
cent
Gro
wth
Rat
e
.2.4
.6.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
Ann
ual g
row
th r
ate
(per
cent
)
©20
01 P
opul
atio
n R
efer
tint:e
.13t
trea
u
E
rate
of
grow
th r
emai
ned
unch
ange
d.U
sed
for
man
y ye
ars,
its
prim
ary
purp
ose
has
been
to e
mph
asiz
e ju
st h
ow q
uick
lypo
pula
tions
can
gro
w, d
oubl
ing
thei
rnu
mbe
rs g
eom
etri
cally
. Tod
ay h
owev
er,
man
y co
untr
ies,
par
ticul
arly
thos
e in
Eur
ope,
are
not
exp
ecte
d to
dou
ble
thei
rpo
pula
tion
num
bers
any
tim
e in
the
fore
-se
eabl
e fu
ture
, if
ever
.T
here
has
als
o be
en a
n un
ders
tand
-ab
le te
nden
cy f
or u
sers
of
the
Dat
a Sh
eet
to q
uote
dou
blin
g tim
es a
s if
they
cou
ldbe
use
d to
for
ecas
t a c
ount
ry's
fut
ure
popu
latio
n si
ze. M
ost p
roje
ctio
ns f
or le
ssde
velo
ped
coun
trie
s, h
owev
er, m
ake
the
assu
mpt
ion
that
fer
tility
will
dec
line
as a
natu
ral f
eatu
re o
f th
e de
mog
raph
ic tr
ansi
-tio
n fr
om h
igh
birt
h an
d de
ath
rate
s to
low
one
s, s
o th
at th
e ra
te o
f gr
owth
will
,in
fac
t, no
t rem
ain
cons
tant
. The
ris
e of
AID
S, p
artic
ular
ly in
sub
-Sah
aran
Afr
ica,
has
also
cha
nged
the
outlo
ok to
the
poin
tw
here
the
valu
e of
dou
blin
g tim
e is
eve
nfu
rthe
r di
min
ishe
d.B
ut th
e co
ncep
t stil
l doe
s ha
ve v
alue
.T
he p
ower
of
a gr
owth
rat
e su
ch a
s 3
per-
cent
(gi
ving
a d
oubl
ing
time
of o
nly
23ye
ars)
can
be
dram
atic
ally
illu
stra
ted.
In
addi
tion,
it s
erve
s to
rem
ind
us th
at p
opu-
latio
ns d
o do
uble
in s
ize
if th
eir
grow
thra
tes
rem
ain
cons
tant
. Thu
s, a
pop
ulat
ion
of 2
0 m
illio
n co
uld
grow
to 4
0 m
illio
n,th
en 8
0 m
illio
n, th
en 1
60 m
illio
n, a
nd s
oon
, unt
il th
e gr
owth
cur
ve b
ecom
es n
ear
vert
ical
. In
part
, it m
ay h
ave
been
this
rea
li-za
tion
that
cau
sed
so m
any
less
dev
elop
edco
untr
ies
to a
dopt
slo
w-g
row
th p
olic
ies
that
hav
e be
en m
et w
ith v
aryi
ng d
egre
es o
fsu
cces
s, a
s th
e D
ata
Shee
t cle
arly
sho
ws.
To
calc
ulat
e do
ublin
g tim
e, d
ivid
e th
eco
untr
y's
grow
th r
ate
into
the
num
ber
70(a
ctua
lly 6
9.3
for
bette
r ac
cura
cy).
Thu
s, a
Com
paris
on o
f Gro
ss N
atio
nal
Inco
me
and
Gro
ss N
atio
nal
Inco
me
in P
PP
, 199
9
Cou
ntry
Gro
ssN
atio
nal
Inco
me
per
capi
ta (
US
$)
Gro
ss N
atio
nal
Inco
me
inP
urch
asin
gP
ower
Par
itype
r ca
pita
(US
$)
Bra
zil
Chi
naE
thio
pia
Indi
aIn
done
sia
Japa
nN
iger
iaR
ussi
a
Sw
itzer
land
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
4,35
078
010
0
440
600
32,0
30 260
2,25
038
,380
31,9
10
6,84
03,
550
620
2,23
02,
660
25,1
7077
06,
990
28,7
6031
,910
Not
es: G
ross
Nat
iona
l Inc
ome
(GN
I) r
efer
s to
the
valu
e of
all
good
s an
d se
rvic
es p
rodu
ced
with
in a
coun
try
plus
net
inco
me
earn
ed fr
om a
broa
d by
natio
nals
. Gro
ss N
atio
nal I
ncom
e in
Pur
chas
ing
Pow
er P
arity
ref
ers
to th
e am
ount
of g
oods
and
serv
ices
that
GN
I wou
ld b
uy in
the
Uni
ted
Sta
tes.
grow
th r
ate
of 2
per
cent
will
dou
ble
a po
pu-
latio
n in
onl
y 35
yea
rs, 1
per
cent
in 7
0ye
ars,
and
so
fort
h.
Pur
chas
ing
Pow
er P
arity
Wha
tD
oes
a D
olla
r B
uy?
Ano
ther
sig
nifi
cant
cha
nge
we
are
mak
ing
to th
e D
ata
Shee
t thi
s ye
ar is
rep
laci
ng th
eco
lum
n on
Gro
ss N
atio
nal I
ncom
e (G
NI)
per
capi
ta (
form
erly
cal
led
Gro
ss N
atio
nal
Prod
uct,
or G
NP,
by
the
Wor
ld B
ank)
with
one
on G
ross
Nat
iona
l Inc
ome
per
capi
taad
just
ed f
or p
urch
asin
g po
wer
par
ity (
PPP)
.G
NI
PPP
per
capi
ta is
gro
ss n
atio
nal
(Con
tinue
d on
pag
e 9)
2001
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n D
ata
Stlit
et;'
1
WO
RLD
Dem
ogra
phic
Dat
a an
d E
stim
ates
for
the
Cou
ntrie
s an
d R
egio
ns o
f the
Wor
ld
Pro
ject
edP
erce
ntof
Pop
.P
erce
nt o
fM
arrie
dR
ate
Pop
.15
-49
Wom
en 1
5-49
Gov
t.G
NI P
PP
Birt
hs D
eath
sof
Cha
nge
Pro
ject
edP
erce
nt o
fLi
fe E
xpec
tanc
yw
ithU
sing
Vie
wP
erP
opul
atio
nP
erP
erN
atur
al20
01-
Pop
ulat
ion
Infa
ntT
otal
Pop
ulat
ion
at B
irth
Dat
aH
IV/A
IDS
Con
trac
eptio
n.of
Cap
ita,
Are
a of
Pop
. Per
Mid
-200
11,
000
1,00
0In
crea
se20
50(m
illio
ns)
Mor
talit
y F
ertil
ityof
Age
(yea
rs)
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il. P
erce
ntE
nd-
All
Mod
ern
Birt
h19
99,
Cou
ntrie
sS
quar
e(m
illio
ns)
Pop
.P
op.
(%)
(%)
2025
2050
Rat
eaR
ateb
<15
65+
Tot
alM
ale
Fem
ale
Cod
e' U
rban
1999
Met
hods
Met
hods
Rat
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US
S)
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are
mile
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ileC
apita
l City
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RLD
6,13
722
91.
347
7,81
89,
036
562.
830
767
6569
461.
160
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51,7
89,6
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8
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e D
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14
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242
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618
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7279
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14,5
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3.2
335
6463
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031
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illio
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ntT
otal
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ertil
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atea
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eb
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ge
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Bel
grad
e
ata
Col
umn
Fea
ture
s
(Con
tinue
d fr
om p
age
1)in
com
e in
pur
chas
ing
pow
er p
arity
div
ided
by m
idye
ar p
opul
atio
n.G
NI
is th
e to
tal v
alue
of
all g
oods
and
serv
ices
pro
duce
d w
ithin
a c
ount
ry p
lus
net
inco
me
earn
ed a
broa
d by
nat
iona
ls. G
NI
PPP
refe
rs to
gro
ss n
atio
nal i
ncom
e co
nver
t-ed
to "
inte
rnat
iona
l" d
olla
rs u
sing
a p
urch
as-
ing
pow
er p
arity
con
vers
ion
fact
or. I
nter
-na
tiona
l dol
lars
indi
cate
the
amou
nt o
fgo
ods
or s
ervi
ces
one
coul
d bu
y in
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es w
ith a
giv
en a
mou
nt o
f m
oney
.G
NI
PPP
prov
ides
an
indi
cato
r of
the
wel
fare
of
peop
le th
at is
com
para
ble
acro
ss
© 2
001
Popu
latio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
6
coun
trie
s fr
ee o
f pr
ice
and
exch
ange
rat
edi
stor
tions
that
occ
ur w
hen
GN
I is
con
vert
-ed
usi
ng m
arke
t exc
hang
e ra
tes.
Man
y in
tere
stin
g co
mpa
riso
ns r
esul
tfr
om th
e us
e of
PPP
. In
Indi
a, f
or e
xam
-pl
e, G
NI
per
capi
ta is
a lo
w U
S$44
0, b
ut,
whe
n ad
just
ed f
or p
urch
asin
g po
wer
, it
rise
s co
nsid
erab
ly to
US$
2,23
0, a
res
ult o
fth
e lo
wer
cos
t of
good
s an
d se
rvic
es in
Indi
a re
lativ
e to
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es. I
n ot
her
wor
ds, U
S$44
0 in
Ind
ia w
ould
buy
pur
-ch
ases
wor
th U
S$2,
230
in th
e U
nite
dSt
ates
. GN
I PP
P is
nea
rly
alw
ays
high
er For
note
s,
than
the
GN
I in
less
dev
elop
ed c
ount
ries
.H
owev
er, J
apan
and
man
y co
untr
ies
inw
este
rn E
urop
e ha
ve h
ighe
r co
sts
of li
ving
than
in th
e U
nite
d St
ates
. As
a re
sult,
thei
rG
NI
PPP
is lo
wer
than
GN
I co
nver
ted
atm
arke
t exc
hang
e ra
tes.
Not
e th
at b
ecau
seth
e U
.S. d
olla
r is
the
stan
dard
cur
renc
y on
whi
chP
PP
is b
ased
, GN
I an
d G
NI
PP
Pfo
rth
e U
nite
d St
ates
are
the
sam
e va
lue
in th
eta
ble
on p
age
1.O
ne c
avea
t is
that
GN
I da
ta s
houl
d no
tbe
con
fuse
d w
ith "
per
capi
ta in
com
e,"
orpe
rson
al m
oney
inco
me
earn
ed th
roug
hL
. t_.
see
page
10.
I"1
empl
oym
ent o
r ot
her
mea
ns. G
NI
does
not n
eces
sari
ly r
efle
ct th
e am
ount
of
mon
ey th
at p
eopl
e ha
ve to
spe
nd b
ecau
seso
me
of th
is in
com
e is
pai
d in
taxe
s or
othe
rwis
e un
avai
labl
e.T
he e
stim
ates
of
GN
IP
PP
used
her
e ar
efr
om th
e W
orld
Ban
k an
d ar
e re
gula
rly
publ
ishe
d in
the
annu
al W
orld
Ban
k A
tlas
and
Wor
ld D
evel
opm
ent I
ndic
ator
s. W
hile
no
mea
sure
of
econ
omic
wel
l-be
ing
is p
erfe
ct,
thes
eP
PP
estim
ates
sho
uld
help
mak
e be
t-te
r co
untr
y-to
-cou
ntry
com
pari
sons
of
peo-
ple'
s ec
onom
ic w
elfa
re.
2001
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n D
ata
Shee
t9
Ack
now
ledg
men
ts, N
otes
, Sou
rces
, and
Def
initi
ons
Ack
now
ledg
men
tsT
he a
utho
rs g
rate
fully
ack
now
ledg
e th
e as
sist
ance
and
coop
erat
ion
of s
taff
mem
bers
of t
he In
tern
atio
nal
Pro
gram
s C
ente
r of
the
U.S
. Cen
sus
Bur
eau;
the
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n an
d th
e S
tatis
tics
Div
isio
n of
the
Uni
ted
Nat
ions
(U
N);
the
Pop
ulat
ion
and
Mig
ratio
nD
ivis
ion
of th
e C
ounc
il of
Eur
ope;
the
Inst
itut n
atio
nal
d'et
udes
dem
ogra
phiq
ues
(IN
ED
), P
aris
; the
Wor
ldB
ank;
and
Ral
f Ulri
ch, C
EO
, Erid
ion
Gm
bH, G
erm
any,
inth
e pr
epar
atio
n of
this
yea
r's D
ata
She
et. S
uzan
neB
aker
, for
mer
PR
B P
olic
y F
ello
w, p
rodu
ced
man
y of
the
popu
latio
n pr
ojec
tions
in th
is y
ear's
Dat
a S
heet
.
Not
es()
indi
cate
s da
ta u
nava
ilabl
e or
inap
plic
able
z=Le
ss th
an 0
.5 p
erce
nta
Infa
nt d
eath
s pe
r 1,
000
live
birt
hs. R
ates
sho
wn
with
deci
mal
s in
dica
te n
atio
nal s
tatis
tics
repo
rted
as
com
-pl
etel
y re
gist
ered
, whi
le th
ose
with
out a
re e
stim
ates
from
the
sour
ces
cite
d on
rev
erse
. Rat
es s
how
n in
ital
icar
e ba
sed
upon
less
than
50
annu
al in
fant
dea
ths
and,
as a
res
ult,
are
subj
ect t
o co
nsid
erab
le y
early
var
iabi
lity.
b A
vera
ge n
umbe
r of
chi
ldre
n bo
rn to
a w
oman
dur
ing
her
lifet
ime
A=
com
plet
e da
ta ..
. D=
little
or
no d
ata
d H
=to
o hi
gh; S
=sa
tisfa
ctor
y; L
=to
o lo
we
Spe
cial
Adm
inis
trat
ive
Reg
ion
f The
form
er Y
ugos
lav
Rep
ublic
*Dat
a pr
ior
to 1
995
are
show
n in
ital
ics.
SS
1020
01 W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Dat
a S
heet
The
Dat
a S
heet
list
s al
l geo
polit
ical
ent
ities
with
popu
latio
ns o
f 150
,000
or
mor
e an
d al
l mem
bers
of
the
UN
. The
se in
clud
e so
vere
ign
stat
es, d
epen
denc
ies,
over
seas
dep
artm
ents
, and
som
e te
rrito
ries
who
se s
ta-
tus
or b
ound
arie
s m
ay b
e un
dete
rmin
ed o
r in
dis
pute
.M
ore
deve
lope
d re
gion
s, fo
llow
ing
the
UN
cla
ssifi
-ca
tion,
com
pris
e al
l of E
urop
e an
d N
orth
Am
eric
a, p
lus
Aus
tral
ia, J
apan
, and
New
Zea
land
. All
othe
r re
gion
san
d co
untr
ies
are
clas
sifie
d as
less
dev
elop
ed.
Cou
ntry
reg
iona
l des
igna
tions
als
o fo
llow
UN
pra
ctic
e.A
s a
resu
lt, N
orth
Am
eric
a do
es n
ot in
clud
e co
untr
ies
of L
atin
Am
eric
a cl
assi
fied
as le
ss d
evel
oped
.W
orld
and
Reg
iona
l Tot
als:
Reg
iona
l pop
ulat
ion
tota
ls a
re in
depe
nden
tly r
ound
ed a
nd in
clud
e sm
all
coun
trie
s or
are
as n
ot s
how
n. R
egio
nal a
nd w
orld
rat
esan
d pe
rcen
tage
s ar
e w
eigh
ted
aver
ages
of c
ount
ries
for
whi
ch d
ata
are
avai
labl
e; r
egio
nal a
vera
ges
are
show
nw
hen
data
or
estim
ates
are
ava
ilabl
e fo
r at
leas
t thr
ee-
quar
ters
of t
he r
egio
n's
popu
latio
n.S
ub-S
ahar
an A
fric
a: A
ll co
untr
ies
of A
fric
a ex
cept
the
Nor
ther
n A
fric
an c
ount
ries
of A
lger
ia, E
gypt
, Lib
ya,
Mor
occo
, Tun
isia
, and
Wes
tern
Sah
ara.
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n D
ata
She
ets
from
diff
eren
t yea
rssh
ould
not
be
used
as
a tim
e se
ries.
Flu
ctua
tions
in v
alue
s fr
om y
ear
to y
ear
ofte
n re
flect
rev
isio
nsba
sed
on n
ew d
ata
or e
stim
ates
rat
her
than
act
ual
chan
ges
in le
vels
. Add
ition
al in
form
atio
n on
like
lytr
ends
and
con
sist
ent t
ime
serie
s ca
n be
obt
aine
dfr
om P
RB
, and
are
als
o av
aila
ble
in U
N a
nd U
.S.
Cen
sus
Bur
eau
publ
icat
ions
.
Sou
rces
The
rat
es a
nd fi
gure
s ar
e pr
imar
ily c
ompi
led
from
the
follo
win
g so
urce
s: o
ffici
al c
ount
ry s
tatis
tical
yea
rboo
ksan
d bu
lletin
s; U
nite
d N
atio
ns D
emog
raph
ic Y
earb
ook,
1999
(fo
rthc
omin
g) a
nd P
opul
atio
n an
d V
ital S
tatis
tics
Rep
ort D
ata
Ava
ilabl
e as
of 1
Apr
il 20
01 (
fort
hcom
-in
g) o
f the
UN
Sta
tistic
s D
ivis
ion;
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
nP
rosp
ects
: The
200
0 R
evis
ion
of th
e U
N P
opul
atio
nD
ivis
ion;
the
UN
Sta
tistic
al L
ibra
ry; R
ecen
t Dem
o-gr
aphi
c D
evel
opm
ents
in E
urop
e, 2
000
of th
e C
ounc
ilof
Eur
ope;
Pop
ulat
ion
55:4
-5 (
INE
D)
La c
onjo
nctu
rede
mog
raph
ique
, by
Jean
-Pau
l Sar
don;
and
the
data
files
and
libr
ary
reso
urce
s of
the
Inte
rnat
iona
lP
rogr
ams
Cen
ter,
U.S
. Cen
sus
Bur
eau.
Oth
er s
ourc
esin
clud
e re
cent
dem
ogra
phic
sur
veys
suc
h as
the
Dem
ogra
phic
and
Hea
lth S
urve
ys, R
epro
duct
ive
Hea
lthS
urve
ys, s
peci
al s
tudi
es, a
nd d
irect
com
mun
icat
ion
with
dem
ogra
pher
s an
d st
atis
tical
bur
eaus
in th
eU
nite
d S
tate
s an
d ab
road
. Spe
cific
dat
a so
urce
s m
aybe
obt
aine
d by
con
tact
ing
the
auth
ors
of th
e 20
01W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Dat
a S
heet
.F
or c
ount
ries
with
com
plet
e re
gist
ratio
n of
birt
hsan
d de
aths
, rat
es a
re th
ose
mos
t rec
ently
rep
orte
d. F
orm
ore
deve
lope
d co
untr
ies,
nea
rly a
ll vi
tal r
ates
ref
erto
199
9 or
200
0, a
nd fo
r le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntrie
s, fo
rso
me
poin
t in
the
late
199
0s.
99©
200
1 P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
Def
initi
ons
Mid
-200
1 P
opul
atio
nE
stim
ates
are
bas
ed o
n a
rece
nt c
ensu
s, o
ffici
al n
a-tio
nal d
ata,
or
UN
and
U.S
. Cen
sus
Bur
eau
proj
ectio
ns.
The
effe
cts
of r
efug
ee m
ovem
ents
, lar
ge n
umbe
rs o
ffo
reig
n w
orke
rs, a
nd p
opul
atio
n sh
ifts
due
to c
onte
m-
pora
ry p
oliti
cal e
vent
s ar
e ta
ken
into
acc
ount
to th
eex
tent
pos
sibl
e.
Birt
h an
d D
eath
Rat
eT
he a
nnua
l num
ber
of b
irths
and
dea
ths
per
1,00
0to
tal p
opul
atio
n. T
hese
rat
es a
re o
ften
refe
rred
to a
s"c
rude
rat
es"
sinc
e th
ey d
o no
t tak
e a
popu
latio
n's
age
stru
ctur
e in
to a
ccou
nt. T
hus,
cru
de d
eath
rat
es in
mor
ede
velo
ped
coun
trie
s, w
ith a
rel
ativ
ely
larg
e pr
opor
tion
of h
igh-
mor
talit
y ol
der
popu
latio
n, a
re o
ften
high
erth
an th
ose
in le
ss d
evel
oped
cou
ntrie
s w
ith lo
wer
life
expe
ctan
cy.
Rat
e of
Nat
ural
Incr
ease
(R
NI)
The
birt
h ra
te m
inus
the
deat
h ra
te, i
mpl
ying
the
annu
al r
ate
of p
opul
atio
n gr
owth
with
out r
egar
d fo
rm
igra
tion.
Exp
ress
ed a
s a
perc
enta
ge.
Pro
ject
ed P
opul
atio
n 20
25 a
nd 2
050
Pro
ject
ed p
opul
atio
ns b
ased
upo
n re
ason
able
ass
ump-
tions
on
the
futu
re c
ours
e of
fert
ility
, mor
talit
y, a
ndm
igra
tion.
Pro
ject
ions
are
bas
ed u
pon
offic
ial c
ount
rypr
ojec
tions
, ser
ies
issu
ed b
y th
e U
N o
r th
e U
.S. C
ensu
sB
urea
u, o
r P
RB
pro
ject
ions
.
Infa
nt M
orta
lity
Rat
eT
he a
nnua
l num
ber
of d
eath
s of
infa
nts
unde
r ag
e 1
year
per
1,0
00 li
ve b
irths
. Rat
es s
how
n w
ith d
ecim
als
indi
cate
nat
iona
l sta
tistic
s re
port
ed a
s co
mpl
etel
y re
gis-
tere
d, w
hile
thos
e w
ithou
t are
est
imat
es fr
om th
eso
urce
s ci
ted
abov
e. R
ates
sho
wn
in it
alic
are
bas
edup
on le
ss th
an 5
0 an
nual
infa
nt d
eath
s an
d, a
s a
resu
lt,ar
e su
bjec
t to
cons
ider
able
yea
rly v
aria
bilit
y.
© 2
001
Popu
latio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
10 0
Tot
al F
ertil
ity R
ate
(TF
R)
The
ave
rage
num
ber
of c
hild
ren
a w
oman
wou
ld h
ave
assu
min
g th
at c
urre
nt a
ge-s
peci
fic b
irth
rate
s re
mai
nco
nsta
nt th
roug
hout
her
chi
ldbe
arin
g ye
ars
(usu
ally
cons
ider
ed to
be
ages
15
to 4
9).
Pop
ulat
ion
Und
er A
ge 1
5/A
ge 6
5+T
he p
erce
ntag
e of
the
tota
l pop
ulat
ion
in th
ese
ages
,w
hich
are
ofte
n co
nsid
ered
the
"dep
ende
nt a
ges.
"
Life
Exp
ecta
ncy
at B
irth
The
ave
rage
num
ber
of y
ears
a n
ewbo
rn in
fant
can
expe
ct to
live
und
er c
urre
nt m
orta
lity
leve
ls.
Dat
a A
vaila
bilit
y C
ode
Pro
vide
s a
gene
ral i
ndic
atio
n of
dat
a av
aila
bilit
y. A
n"A
" in
dica
tes
a co
untr
y w
ith b
oth
com
plet
e vi
tal s
tatis
-tic
s (b
irth
and
deat
h da
ta)
and
eith
er a
nat
iona
l-lev
elce
nsus
with
in 1
0 ye
ars
or a
con
tinuo
us p
opul
atio
n re
gis-
ter.
If a
cou
ntry
has
com
plet
e vi
tal s
tatis
tics
or a
con
tin-
uous
pop
ulat
ion
regi
ster
and
a n
atio
nal-l
evel
cen
sus
with
in 1
5 ye
ars,
they
are
rat
ed "
B."
Als
o ra
ted
"B"
are
coun
trie
s th
at h
ave
one
of th
e th
ree
sour
ces
nece
ssar
yfo
r an
"A
" pl
us e
ither
a u
sabl
e na
tiona
l sur
vey
or a
sam
ple
regi
stra
tion
syst
em w
ithin
10
year
s. "
C"
indi
-ca
tes
that
at l
east
a c
ensu
s (w
ithin
15
year
s), a
sur
vey
(with
in 1
0 ye
ars)
, or
sam
ple
regi
stra
tion
syst
em is
ava
il-ab
le. "
D"
indi
cate
s th
at li
ttle
or n
o re
liabl
e de
mog
raph
-ic
info
rmat
ion
is a
vaila
ble
and
that
est
imat
es a
re b
ased
on fr
agm
enta
ry d
ata
or d
emog
raph
ic m
odel
s. C
ount
ries
who
se d
emog
raph
ic s
ituat
ions
hav
e be
en s
erio
usly
dis
-ru
pted
and
for
whi
ch th
ere
are
few
rec
ent d
ata
are
also
code
d "D
." T
here
can
be
cons
ider
able
var
iatio
n in
the
qual
ity o
f dat
a w
ithin
the
sam
e ca
tego
ry.
Per
cent
Urb
anP
erce
ntag
e of
the
tota
l pop
ulat
ion
livin
g in
are
aste
rmed
"ur
ban"
by
that
cou
ntry
. Typ
ical
ly, t
he p
opul
a-tio
n liv
ing
in to
wns
of 2
,000
or
mor
e or
in n
atio
nal a
ndpr
ovin
cial
cap
itals
is c
lass
ified
"ur
ban.
"
Per
cent
of A
dult
Pop
ulat
ion
Age
s 15
to 4
9W
ith H
IV/A
IDS
The
est
imat
ed p
erce
ntag
e of
adu
lts w
ith H
IV/A
IDS
at
the
end
of 1
999.
The
se d
ata
are
com
pile
d by
UN
AID
San
d th
e W
orld
Hea
lth O
rgan
izat
ion.
Con
trac
eptiv
e U
seT
he p
erce
ntag
e of
cur
rent
ly m
arrie
d or
"in
-uni
on"
wom
en o
f rep
rodu
ctiv
e ag
e w
ho a
re c
urre
ntly
usi
ngan
y fo
rm o
f con
trac
eptio
n."M
oder
n" m
etho
ds in
clud
e cl
inic
and
sup
ply
met
hods
suc
h as
the
pill,
IUD
, con
dom
, and
ste
riliz
atio
n.D
ata
are
from
the
mos
t rec
ent a
vaila
ble
natio
nal-l
evel
surv
eys,
suc
h as
the
Dem
ogra
phic
and
Hea
lth S
urve
y,R
epro
duct
ive
Hea
lth S
urve
y pr
ogra
ms,
and
the
UN
Pop
ulat
ion
Div
isio
n Le
vels
and
Tre
nds
of C
ontr
acep
tive
Use
as
Ass
esse
d in
199
8. O
ther
sou
rces
incl
ude
dire
ctco
mm
unic
atio
n w
ith n
atio
nal s
tatis
tical
org
aniz
atio
nsan
d th
e da
taba
ses
of th
e U
nite
d N
atio
ns P
opul
atio
nD
ivis
ion
and
the
U.S
. Cen
sus
Bur
eau.
Dat
a re
fer
toso
me
poin
t in
the
1990
s. D
ata
prio
r to
199
5 ar
e sh
own
in it
alic
s.
Gov
ernm
ent V
iew
of C
urre
nt B
irth
Rat
eT
his
popu
latio
n po
licy
indi
cato
r pr
esen
ts th
e of
ficia
llyst
ated
pos
ition
of c
ount
ry g
over
nmen
ts o
n th
e le
vel o
fth
e na
tiona
l birt
h ra
te. M
ost i
ndic
ator
s ar
e fr
om th
eU
N P
opul
atio
n D
ivis
ion,
Glo
bal P
opul
atio
n P
olic
y D
ata
Bas
e, 1
999.
GN
I PP
P P
er C
apita
, 199
9 (U
S$)
GN
I PP
P p
er c
apita
is G
ross
Nat
iona
l Inc
ome
in p
urch
as-
ing
pow
er p
arity
(P
PP
) di
vide
d by
mid
year
pop
ulat
ion.
GN
I PP
P r
efer
s to
Gro
ss N
atio
nal I
ncom
e co
nver
ted
to"in
tern
atio
nal"
dolla
rs u
sing
a p
urch
asin
g po
wer
par
ityco
nver
sion
fact
or. I
nter
natio
nal d
olla
rs in
dica
te th
eam
ount
of g
oods
and
ser
vice
s on
e co
uld
buy
in th
eU
nite
d S
tate
s w
ith a
giv
en a
mou
nt o
f mon
ey.
1011
2001
Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n D
ata
Shee
t1
Abo
ut th
e P
opul
atio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
Foun
ded
in 1
929,
the
Popu
latio
n R
efer
ence
Bur
eau
is th
ele
ader
in p
rovi
ding
tim
ely,
obj
ectiv
e in
form
atio
n on
U.S
.an
d in
tern
atio
nal p
opul
atio
n tr
ends
and
thei
r im
plic
atio
ns.
PRB
info
rms
polic
ymak
ers,
edu
cato
rs, t
he m
edia
, and
con
-ce
rned
citi
zens
wor
king
in th
e pu
blic
inte
rest
aro
und
the
wor
ld. P
RB
is a
non
prof
it, n
onad
voca
cy o
rgan
izat
ion.
Our
effo
rts
are
supp
orte
d by
gov
ernm
ent c
ontr
acts
, fou
ndat
ion
gran
ts, i
ndiv
idua
l and
cor
pora
te c
ontr
ibut
ions
, and
the
sale
of p
ublic
atio
ns. P
RB
is g
over
ned
by a
Boa
rd o
f T
rust
ees
repr
esen
ting
dive
rse
com
mun
ity a
nd p
rofe
ssio
nal i
nter
ests
.PR
B g
athe
rs, i
nter
pret
s, a
nd d
isse
min
ates
pop
ulat
ion
info
rmat
ion
thro
ugh
a br
oad
rang
e of
act
iviti
es:
Res
earc
h an
d P
olic
y A
naly
sis
PRB
's s
taff
mon
itors
pop
ulat
ion
tren
ds a
nd in
vest
igat
esth
e de
mog
raph
ic d
imen
sion
s of
a v
arie
ty o
f so
cial
and
eco
-no
mic
issu
es s
uch
as r
epro
duct
ive
heal
th, f
amily
pla
nnin
g,ag
ing,
cri
me,
imm
igra
tion,
cha
ngin
g fa
mily
str
uctu
re,
min
oriti
es' s
tatu
s, a
nd th
e en
viro
nmen
t.
Pub
licat
ions
We
prod
uce
a la
rge
num
ber
of p
ublic
atio
ns f
or p
olic
y-m
aker
s, e
duca
tors
, jou
rnal
ists
, and
man
y ot
her
nont
echn
i-ca
l aud
ienc
es. P
RB
pub
licat
ions
incl
ude
the
Popu
latio
nT
oday
new
slet
ter,
the
quar
terl
y Po
pula
tion
Bul
letin
, the
annu
al W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Dat
a Sh
eet,
and
PRB
Rep
orts
on
Am
eric
a. P
RB
als
o pr
oduc
es s
peci
aliz
ed p
ublic
atio
ns c
over
-in
g po
pula
tion
and
publ
ic p
olic
y is
sues
in th
e U
nite
dSt
ates
and
in o
ther
cou
ntri
es.
Med
ia O
utre
ach
Pro
gram
sPR
B h
elps
mak
e te
chni
cal r
esea
rch
acce
ssib
le to
pri
ntan
d br
oadc
ast j
ourn
alis
ts a
roun
d th
e w
orld
. We
do th
isth
roug
h co
llabo
rativ
e m
edia
net
wor
ks, b
ackg
roun
d pu
bli-
catio
ns, s
emin
ars,
pre
ss c
onfe
renc
es, a
nd b
rief
ings
. We
also
gen
erat
e ar
ticle
s fo
r m
any
new
spap
ers,
mag
azin
es,
and
wir
e se
rvic
es.
Tec
hnic
al S
ervi
ces
PRB
pro
vide
s te
chni
cal s
uppo
rt to
gov
ernm
ent i
nstit
utio
nsan
d pr
ivat
e or
gani
zatio
ns. W
e he
lp c
ount
ries
incr
ease
awar
enes
s an
d un
ders
tand
ing
of p
opul
atio
n is
sues
.
1220
01 W
orld
Pop
ulat
ion
Dat
a Sh
eet
1021
1
Info
rmat
ion
Ser
vice
sW
e of
fer
info
rmat
ion
on a
wid
e ra
nge
of to
pics
, thr
ough
ava
riet
y of
cha
nnel
s in
clud
ing
sem
inar
s an
d in
tern
ship
s.PR
B m
aint
ains
one
of
the
larg
est s
peci
aliz
ed p
opul
atio
nlib
rari
es in
the
Uni
ted
Stat
es. P
RB
's w
ebsi
te (
ww
w.p
rb.o
rg)
has
full
text
or
exce
rpts
of
man
y PR
B p
ublic
atio
ns, a
s w
ell
as li
nks
to m
any
othe
r w
ebsi
tes
on p
opul
atio
n.
Edu
catio
nO
ur e
duca
tion
prog
ram
pro
vide
s pr
imar
y an
d se
cond
ary
scho
ol te
ache
rs w
ith e
very
thin
g fr
om c
urri
culu
m m
ater
ials
and
teac
hing
kits
to s
emin
ars
and
teac
her
trai
ning
wor
k-sh
ops.
In
this
way
, we
help
edu
cato
rs to
bet
ter
cove
r to
pics
like
popu
latio
n an
d th
e en
viro
nmen
t, et
hnic
div
ersi
ty, a
ndw
orld
pop
ulat
ion
grow
th.
NO
W $
0am
ine
a P
RE
MaE
ratia
lcao
,PR
B is
a m
embe
rshi
p or
gani
zatio
n. A
s a
PRB
mem
ber,
you
can
help
incr
ease
pub
lic a
war
enes
s of
the
role
that
pop
ula-
tion
play
s in
sha
ping
our
wor
ld. M
embe
rshi
p in
PR
B w
illpr
ovid
e yo
u w
ith u
nbia
sed
info
rmat
ion,
acc
urat
e re
port
ing,
and
timel
y pu
blic
atio
ns.
Her
e ar
e a
few
of t
he m
any
PR
B m
embe
rshi
p be
nefit
s:T
he a
nnua
l Wor
ld P
opul
atio
n D
ata
Shee
t sum
mar
izes
and
com
pare
s th
e la
test
pop
ulat
ion
estim
ates
, pro
ject
ions
,an
d ot
her
key
indi
cato
rs f
or 2
00 c
ount
ries
.
The
qua
rter
ly P
opul
atio
n B
ulle
tin g
ives
you
in-d
epth
cov
-er
age
of im
port
ant d
omes
tic a
nd in
tern
atio
nal p
opul
a-tio
n is
sues
.T
he n
ewsl
ette
r Po
pula
tion
Tod
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109
TEACHER'S GUIDE
C 3
Fundamentals of growth and change
Population Reference Bureau1-1-0
The Population Reference Bureau is the leader in providing timely, objective informationon U.S. and international population trends and their implications. PRB informs policy-makers, educators, the media, and concerned citizens working in the public interestaround the world through a broad range of activities including publications, informationservices, seminars and workshops, and technical support. PRB is a nonprofit, nonadvocacyorganization.
Membership in PRB will provide you with publications and information designed to giveyou unbiased and accurate reporting, and timely material. Among your many benefits asa PRB member are the Population Today newsletter, the quarterly Population Bulletin,and the annual World Population Data Sheet.
Membership is availableto educators for $39. To order publications or begin your membership,
call PRB (1-800-877-9881) or visit our website(www.prb.org).
Human Population: Fundamentals of Growthand Change is available online at PRB'sEducators Forum: www.prb.org /efl
Human Population: Fundamentals of Growthand Change is an update of WorldPopulation: Fundamentals of Growth andWorld Population: Toward the Next Century.Revisions and additions were made by CherylLynn Stauffer, November 2000.
Special thanks are given to Diana Cornelius,Mary Kent, and Yvette Collymore whoreviewed the content. Sharon Hershey Faydesigned the publication.
Human Population: Fundamentals of Growthand Change was produced with funding fromThe World Population Fund of TheMinneapolis Foundation.
OD Copyright 2000Population Reference Bureau,Washington, DC.K-12 educators and students who wish toreproduce this booklet for use in theirclassrooms may do so without obtainingpermission.
For permission to reprint any part of thisbooklet in another publication, please con-tact PRB.
Population Reference Bureau1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520Washington, DC 20009Phone: (202) 483-1100Fax: (202) 328-3937E-mail: [email protected]: www.prb.org 111
Fundamentals of growth and change
Population Growth and Distribution 2
Natural Increase and Future Growth 4
Effect of Migration on Population Growth 6
Three Patterns of Population Change 8
Patterns of World Urbanization 10
The Status of Women 12
World Health 14
Environmental Relationships 16
112
Discussion questions
CHART
1. According to the projection shown on"World population growth: 1750-2150," about what percentage ofgrowth is projected to occur in lessdeveloped countries after 2100?
2. Which region is projected to gain thegreatest share of world populationbetween 2000 and 2050? P 151
3. During what "age" of human historydid the world's population begin to grow rapidly?
UTIONWorld Population Growth, 1750-2150
Population (in billions)
10
READING
1. What is the world's population in 2000? How many people were added tothe world population in 2000?
2. Which regions have the fastest rate of population growth?3. In which region does the greatest share of the world's population reside?
DATA
Examine the World Population Data Sheet insert in this publication.1. Select five countries and find the corresponding population estimates,
growth rates (rate of natural increase), and doubling times. Apply the rateof natural increase to the population to find the number of people beingadded to those countries this year. How do the doubling times (for the cur-rent rates of natural increase) relate to the projected populations?
2. Find the countries with the highest and lowest growth rates. In whichregions are these countries located?
DISCUSSION
1. World population growth was very slow during the Stone Age. Why wasgrowth so slow during this period?
113
2 Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change
e. resources
Food For Thought Lesson Plan, from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.orglefflessons/food_for thought htmlFood for Thought is a spatial graphing activity that requires the partici-pants to be part of the graph. The purpose of the activity is to help stu-dents develop a true feeling for the similarities and differences betweenpopulations of major regions on Earth. Many measures are used for com-parison including population, population density, population growthrates, life expectancy, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and more.Middle to high school.
How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?www.prb.org/wf/quickfacts/everlive.htmThis is a popularly asked question, answered by the PopulationReference Bureau. Provides benchmark estimates from 8000 B.C. and dis-cussion about how difficult these estimates are to make.
World Population Data Sheet, from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.org/pubs/wpds2000/The World Population Data Sheet contains the latest population esti-mates, projections, and other key indicators for all geographic entitieswith populations of 150,000 or more and all members of the UnitedNations. Students can also create customized data tables from PRB'ssearchable database.
Historical Estimates of World Population, from the U.S. Census Bureauwww.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.htmlA series of historical world population estimates from a variety ofsources up to 1950.
World Population Profile, from the U.S. Census Bureauwww.census.gov/ipc/www/world.htmlThe U.S. Census Bureau piece is a look into the composition and distribu-tion of world population for the current year. Also provides links to sta-tistics on population counts and vital statistics.
World Population Growth from Year 0 to 2050, from the United Nationswww.popin.org/pop1998/4.htmFrom the United Nations revision of World Population Estimates andProjections, this chapter looks at the history of world population growth.
114 Teacher's Guide 3
digis OWTHDiscussion questions
CHART
1. What were the levels of birth and deathrates in less developed countries and inmore developed countries in 1775?
2. Describe how the birth and death ratesin the less developed and more devel-oped countries changed from 1775 to1995.
READING
Population Growth Through NaturalIncrease, 1775-2000
Le%duenegged"°%117,1',11:1Ped
Naturecrease
1. What are the components of population change?2. How does the world population growth rate today compare with the
growth rate at other times in history?3. What were the causes of the "mortality revolution" in Europe and North
America?4. Compare and contrast the demographic transition in more developed and
less developed countries.5. How are population projections made?
DATA
The rate of natural increase is the difference between birth and death rates.It measures the degree to which a population is growing. Since birth anddeath rates are measured as the number of births (or deaths) occurring per1,000 population, the difference is divided by 10 to convert this rate into apercentage.
Rate of Natural Increase = Birth Rate - Death Rate10
1. Using the birth and death rates from the World Population Data Sheet, cal-culate the rate of natural increase for five countries or regions. (Due torounding, answers may differ slightly from the rates of natural increase onthe data sheet.)
2. Find five countries that appear to have reached the fourth stage of thedemographic transition (in which death rates are higher than birth rates).
115
4 Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change
DISCUSSION1. What technological, economic, and social factors might cause levels of mor-
tality and fertility to change?2. What do you think the prospects are for the changes in birth and death
rates in the United States?3. Examine the projections shown in "Future of world population growth:
three scenarios, 2000 to 2050" (p. 8 in Human Population booklet). Whichprojection do you think is most likely? Why?
e resources
Facts in Focus Lesson Plan, from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.orglefIlessons/facts_in_focus.htmlA series of short activities examining the wealth of data on the world,regions and individual countries from PRB's World Population DataSheet. This piece also introduces students to major demographic con-cepts through computational and data analysis activities. Middle tohigh school.
World Population Data Sheet, from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.org/pubs/wpds2000/The World Population Data Sheet contains the latest population esti-mates, projections, and other key indicators for all geographic entitieswith populations of 150,000 or more and all members of the UnitedNations. Students can also create customized data tables from PRB'ssearchable database.
The Population Story Presentation Guide, from the Population ReferenceBureauwww.prb.org/pubs/population_storylcontents.htmThis publication is an online resource tool of 51 colorful charts andgraphs that can be used to tell the population story in your own lectures.PDF versions can be used to print transparencies, and each chart andgraph has bulleted talking points.
World Population Estimates and Projections, from the U.S. Census Bureauwww.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.htmlThe Census Bureau International Data Base includes a profile of popula-tion for 227 countries and selected groups of countries. Estimates andprojections date back as far as 1950 and as far ahead as 2050.
World Population Estimates and Projections, from the United Nationswww.un.orglesalpopulation/worldpop1998.htmThis publication is the official li.sting of the United Nations' estimates andprojections for world population.
116 Teacher's Guide 5
Discussion questions
CHART
1. How has the proportion of Asian immi-grants changed during the 20th century?
READING
1. How much does immigration contributeto population growth in the UnitedStates?
2. Why do people move?3. Give examples of other "push" and
"pull" factors.
Regional Origins of Immigrants tothe United States, Selected Years
EE
1900s 1920s 19405 1960s 19805 1991-1998
Other Europe Asia MI Canada 0 LatinAmerica
DATA
1. Obtain data from a library, your state data center, the U.S. Census Bureau,or the Population Reference Bureau on the recent components of changefor your state. How much growth in your state is due to net migration?
DISCUSSION
1. Where did your ancestors come from? If your ancestors are not AmericanIndian, Alaska Native, or Native Hawaiian, when did they come to theUnited States? Why?
117
6 Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change
e resources
International Migration: A Global Challenge, from the PopulationReference Bureauwww.prb.org/pubs/population_bulletinlbu51-1/51 _1 _intro.htmThis 44-page report examines the forces behind international migrationpatterns including a discussion of the many demographic and economicfactors involved. This is a great background piece for more informationon the subject of migration.
Teacher Resources, from the Immigration and Naturalization Servicewww.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/aboutins/history/teacher/Resources.htmThis section links educators to information about the history of immigra-tion into the United States and a summary of developments within immi-gration law. There are also links to immigration statistics and fact sheetsfor understanding historical and recent trends.
Foreign-Born Population Estimates, from the U.S. Census Bureauwww.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/foreign.htmlA series of reports on the recent trends of immigrants into the UnitedStates; includes the characteristics of natives and the foreign-born popu-lation. A working paper provides a historical look at the foreign-bornpopulation from 1850.
Migration Newsmigration.ucdavis.edu/mn/index.htmlMigration News summarizes the most important immigration develop-ments around the world each month, including reviews of recentresearch publications. Each article is of reasonable length at a highschool reading level.
118 Teacher's Guide 7
Discussion questions
CHART
1. What percentage of the populationof the Democratic Republic ofCongo, the United States, andGermany are 0-4 years old?
2. Which of the three countries has thegreatest proportion of people ages65 and older?
ION
Three Patterns of Population Change
Rapid growthDemocratic Republic
of CongoZrUnited
Negative growthGermany
male l S female male female male female
1086420246810 42024 42024
READING
1. How can the age-sex structure of a population help determine the needs ofthat population?
2. What does it mean to have a "young" or "old" population?3. How can migration affect the shape of a pyramid?4. What is "zero population growth"? Which pyramid represents this
concept?
DATA
The dependency ratio is a measure used to indicate the ratio of persons in the"dependent" ages (under 15 and ages 65 and older) per 100 persons in the"economically productive" ages (15-64 years of age). The formula for thedependency ratio is:
% Population under age 15 + % Population age 65+
Population ages 15-64x 100
The age dependency ratio for the United States is shown below at 54.
22 + 13x 100 = 53.8
65
This means that there were 54 persons in the dependent ages for every 100persons in the working ages.
1. Calculate the dependency ratios for Kenya, Germany, Brazil, and Japan.Compare the components of each of them.
1
8 Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change
DISCUSSION1. Discuss the implications of high or low dependency ratios for economic
resources and development.
e resources
Pyramid Building Lesson Plan, from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.org/pubsilessons/pyramid.htmA graphing activity to help students understand the importance of agestructure on population growth; for middle to high school.
Instructions for Creating Population Pyramids using Microsoft Excel,from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.orgipt/1999/may99_pt.pdfThis article from PRB's Population Today newsletter includes steps to uti-lize the spreadsheet program Excel to create age and sex diagrams.
U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates and Projectionswww.census.gov/population/www/estimates/popest.htmlUse this link as a starting point to gather age and sex data by race andHispanic origin for national, state and county estimates for the years1990 to the most recent year. Data for lower level geography (places,census tracts, metro areas) can be obtained for 1990 (STF3) fromAmerican Fact Finder: http://factfinder.census.gov.www.census.gov/population/www/projections/popproj.html*Use this link as a starting point to gather data on projections of ageand sex by race and Hispanic origin for the nation and states to the year2025.
U.S. Census Bureau International Data Basewww.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyrhtmlA graphical display of population pyramids by country for 2000, 2025,and 2050. Provides a dynamic function to display the change in age-sexdistribution over time.www.census.gov/ipdwww/idbacc.htmlProvides access to estimates and projections of age and sex data by coun-try for the years 1950 to 2050.
Teacher's Guide 9
1211
Oh gillA TIONDiscussion questions
CHART
1. Where will most of the new 5 million-plus cities spring up in 2015in moredeveloped or less developed countries?
2. How did growth in London differfrom that of Lagos in the past50 years?
Largest Urban Agglomerations,1950, 2000, 2015
Size of Urban Populationo 5 million and over since 1950
READING 5 million and over since 20005 million and over in 2015 (projected)
1. What is the definition of an urbanarea?
2. In 2000, do most of the world's people live in rural or urban areas?3. Describe the differences in the patterns of urbanization in the more devel-
oped and less developed countries.
DATA
1. Find the column on the World Population Data Sheet showing the percentof population residing in urban areas. Also examine the list of the largestcities found in the table "Top 10 largest agglomerations" (p. 20 in HumanPopulation booklet). For the 10 largest cities, calculate the proportion of thecountry's population living in that city in 2000. For example, 18.4 millionpeople reside in Mexico City; this is 18.5 percent of Mexico's population.
DISCUSSION
1. Why are megacities increasing so rapidly in less developed countries? Whatare some implications of rapid growth in these cities?
12.1,
10 Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change
e. resources
An Urbanizing World, from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.org/pubslpopulation_bulletin/bu55-3/55_3_intro.htmlThe 44-page report discusses urban population trends, demographics,and challenges in the world's cities. This is a great background piece toget more information about issues concerning urban populations.
Urbanization Prospects, from the United Nationswww.un.org/esa/population/urbanization.htmThis piece presents estimates and projections for urban and rural popula-tions of the world for the period 1950-2030.
Cities of Today, Cities of Tomorrow Curriculum Unit, from the UnitedNationswww.un.org/Pubs/CyberSchoolBusIspeciallhabitatlindex.htmlThe project provides a systematic and interactive study of cities from ahistorical overview of urban development to specific studies of urbanviolence or homelessness. The curriculum and all its activities will culmi-nate in the creation of an "Ideal City."
Urbanization Issues, from The World Bank Groupwww.worldbank.org/htmllschools/issues/urban.htmThis section points to discussions about urbanization issues, data, andnews within the World Bank. The site includes a global perspective onurbanization and its implications, and resources for teachers.
122'Teacher's Guide 11
VtainitiDiscussion questions
CHART
1. After examining the information on therelated chart, what can be observedabout the relationship betweenwomen's education and family size?
READING
1. What are some of the ways that educa-tion can playa role in determining fami-ly size?
2. What determines the number of children a woman will have?3. What are some of the factors that "indirectly" affect fertility?
Women's Education and Family Sizein Selected Countries, 1990s
0 No M Primary NI SecondaryTo al fert ra e education completed completed
1
fi?' 16 se AI: /.0A
DATA
1. Contraceptive prevalence is a determinant of fertility. Using informationfrom the World Population Data Sheet, prepare a graph to show the rela-tionship between contraceptive use and fertility?
2. What other indicators on the World Population Data Sheet might provideinformation on the status of women?
DISCUSSION
1. Consider how the status of women in the United States has affectedfamily size.
12 Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change
We resources
Women of the World Data Sheet, from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.org/pubs/women98.htmThis resource from PRB provides data for more than 150 countries on thequality of women's lives around the world. It also includes charts andsmall pieces on special topics. The data is also available on PRB's search-able database.
Information on Women, from the United Nationswww.un.org/ecosocdev/geninfo/women/This site provides various statistics featuring women's political participa-tion, women and education, labor, population, health, and violence.There are also links to UN documents and websites that relate to women.
Gender Issues, from the World Bank Groupwww.worldbank.org/htmllschools/issues/genderhtmThis section points to discussions about gender issues and resources fromthe World Bank, including links to gender statistics and world develop-ment indicators. The site provides further information about gender andeconomic development, and gender and education.
Women and Population Issues in Sustainable Development, from theUnited Nationswww.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/sustdev/WPdirect/WPhomepg.htmA section of Sustainable Development DIMENSIONS, from the Food andAgriculture Organization of the United Nations, the information hereconsists of news, analysis, and resources on gender-population concerns,especially in rural areas.
1
Teacher's Guide 13
NOLTHDiscussion questions
CHART
1. What was the leading cause of death in theUnited States in 1997? What proportion ofdeaths was attributable to this cause in theUnited States in 1900 and in Peru in 1992?
2. What proportion of deaths in Peru in 1992did infectious and parasitic diseases cause?
Major Causes of Death in theUnited States and Peru
READING United States
1. How have life expectancies changed in 1900
more developed countries since the Roman Empire?2. Why are infant mortality rates over 100 in some less developed countries?3. What types of diseases are the most common causes of death in the more
developed regions?
Peru1992
United States1997
DATA
1. Examine the columns on the World Population Data Sheet showing infantmortality and life expectancy. Find these variables for 10 countries andexamine their relationship. Examine the relationship between the IMR, thebirth rate, and GNP per capita.
DISCUSSION
1. Consider the implications of citizens' health on decisionmakers in localgovernments.
12.5
14 Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change
e. resources
Attaining Global Health: Challenges and Opportunities, from thePopulation Reference Bureauwww.prb.org/pu bs/population_bulletin/bu 55-1/55_1 _intro.htmThis report from PRB looks at trends in health over the past century,including an exploration of the multiple factors that determine health.The report also includes a variety of health-related charts and graphs.
World Health Organizationwww. who. int/This United Nations' agency site provides information on global health.The World Health Report provides access to health-related statistics andupdates on health trends and issues.
Pan American Health Organizationwww.paho.org/This organization focuses on the health of the Americas and providescountry health profiles, health indicators, and health trends and analysis.The site also includes short news reports and statistics by country.
National Center for Health Statisticswww.cdc.govinchs/NCHS collects data on births and deaths for the United States and poststabulated data by state on a variety of health-related statistics. Some ofthe data is available in spreadsheet format and includes charts and graphs.
United Nations HIV/AIDS Informationwww.unaids.orgThis site provides information about the current status of the disease.Online access is available for background reports, surveillance statistics,and fact sheets.
126Teacher's Guide 15
VIRON11/111,TDiscussion questions
CHART
1. Why do countries vary so greatly inthe availability of fresh water?Especially in places like Kenya andJordan?
2. The United States and Bangladeshhave roughly the same amount ofrenewable fresh water, yet theamount of water available to eachperson in Bangladesh is almost twice the amount available to each U.S. citi-zen in 1995. Why might the rate of water availability be projected to fallmore quickly in Bangladesh over the next 50 years?
Per Capita Annual Freshwater Availability,1950, 1995, 2050
Water (in cubic meters)
Ell 1950NI 1995Cl 2050
Bangladesh United MexicoStates
Kenya Jordan
READING1. Outline some of the links between population and the environment.2. Describe how consumption patterns and population size may each con-
tribute to environmental degradation.3. What are the implications of disparity between population size and energy
production and consumption?
DATA1. Examine environmental data available online from organizations like the
World Resources Institute (www.wri.org) and look at how these variablescompare with what is happening in your local region or state with dataavailable from organizations like the Environmental Protection Agency(www.epa.gov).
2. Compare environmental data with demographic indicators on the WorldPopulation Data Sheet. Create two choropleth maps for two comparableindicators.
DISCUSSION1. What are some important considerations to keep in mind when developing
strategies or plans to ensure sustainable development?
127
16 Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth and Change
e s resources
Adventures on Earth: Exploring Our Global Links Lesson Plans, from thePopulation Reference Bureauwww.prb.orglef/lessons/adventures_on_earth.htmlAdventures on Earth is a 50-page classroom guide of interactive lessons,designed for educating students about how people use the environment,the consequences of meeting human needs, and the environmentalimpact of people's actions and choices.
US in the World, from the Population Reference Bureauwww.prb.org/news/usworld.htmUS in the World is a project to help Americans explore how shared con-cern for the environment links people in the United States to people inother parts of the world. The project includes the production of a seriesof fact sheets profiling the population-environment trends of a state inthe United States and its comparable developing country.
Environmental Education on the Internetwww.nceetsnre.umich.edu/A project by the North American Association of EnvironmentalEducation, this site provides links to a variety of websites with educationresources for teachers and students.
World Resources Institutewww.wri.orgThe materials published by WRI include their annual World Resources,reporting the latest trends related to environmental issues. The site alsoincludes country profiles and statistics.
Environmental Protection Agencywww.epa.govThe U.S. Environmental Protection Agency posts information aboutnational, state, and local environmental issues. The site has a special sec-tion for teachers, with background resources and materials, and anotherfor students to explore a variety of topics.
128
Teacher's Guide 17
Visit PRB's Educators ForumTools for teaching about population issues, trends, andtheir implications. Access to lesson plans and populationinformation.
wvvw.prb.org/ef/
Population Reference Bureau1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 520Washington, DC 20009
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