Report No. 6651-KE

KenyaForestry Subsector ReviewVolume l: Main ReportFebruary 26,1988

Agriculture Operations DivisionEastern Africa Department

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

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Document of the World Bank

This report has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Units are Kenya Shillings (KSh) and Pounds (K£)

KSh 20 - , K£KSh 1.00 = US$ 0.06US$ 1.00 KSh 16US$ 1.00 = 0.85 SDR

Since August 1985, the Kenya Shilling has been pegged to the SDRat a rate of SDR 1 = KSh 17.74. The rate vis-a-vis the dollar fluctuates.The KSh dollar equivalent above was as of December 1986, when most of thework for this report was done.

The Government's fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30.

This report was prepared by a team which visited Kenya in September, 1986;team members were: Ms. P. Cox, Ms. K. McNamara, Mr. G. Donovan,

Mr. J. Spears, Ms. B. Hanan (Bank),Mr. J. Allaway, Mr. P. Dewees, Mr. J. Easton (Consultants),Mr. T. Abell (ODA), Mr. B. Armitage (CIDA), Mr. K. Bjork (FINNIDA),Ms. L. Buck (CARE), Mr. G. Campbell (FAO), Ms. N. Chavangi (Netherlands),Mr. W. Hunziker (Switzerland), Mr. A. Juhola (FINNIDA), Mr. M. Sommerlatte(GTZ), and Mr. A. van Gelder (Netherlands). Research assistance wasprovided by Mr. P. Higgins and Ms. J. VanDomelen. Ms. C. El-Hamri andMs. K. Fry assisted with preparation of this report.

F!oE OFF0I US ONLY

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ACCF Assistant Chief Conservator of ForostsACF Assistant Conservator of ForestsADMT Air Dry Metric TonAFC Agricultural Finance CorporationAFRMLA Agroforestry Research Network in AfricaAO Agricultural OfficerBDMT Bone Dry Metric TonCARE Cooperative for American Relief Everywhere, Inc.CBS Central Bureau of StatisticsCC? Chief Conservator of ForestsCF Conservator of ForestsCGIAR Consultative Group on International Agrinultural ResearchCIDA Canadian International Development AgencyDANIDA Danish International Develvpment AgencyDAO District Agricultural OfficerDC District CommissionerDCCF Deputy Chief Conservator of ForestsDDP District Development PlanDETO District Education and Training OfficerDFEO District Forest Extension OfficerDFO District Forest Officer3AAFRO East African Agriculture and Forest Research OrganizationEATEC East African Tanning Extracts CorporationEDI Energy/Development InternationalESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance ProgramESU Energy Supply UnitFD Forest DepartmentFINNIDA Finnish International Development AgencyFITC Forest Industries Training CentreFMT Finished Metric TonOOK Government of KenyaGTZ Gesellschaft fur Twchniache Zusanmenarbeit (Agency for Technical

Cooperation of the Federal Republic of Germany)IC.RE International Council for Forestry Research and ExtensionICRAW International Council for Research In AgroforestryIDRC International Development Research Center (Canada)ILCA International Livestock Center for AfricaIUFRO International Union of Forestry Research OrganisationsJICA Japanese International Cooperation AgencyKARI Kenya Agricultural Research InstituteKEFRI Kenya Forestry Research InstituteKENGO Kenya Energy Non-Governmental OrganizationsKREDP Kenya Renewablo Energy Development ProjectKRENU enya Rangeland Ecological Monitoring UnitMOALD1 Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development

1/ The MOALD was divided, during November 1986, Into separate Ilnistries ofAgriculture and Livestock Development. The combined title, which has beonretained in Annexes of this report should be read as MOA.

of their ofcia duties Its contents may not otherwis be discbsed wihout World Bank athoration.

KTDA Kenya Tea Development AuthorityMENR Ministry of Environment and Natural ResourcesNEU Monitoring and Evaluation UnitMIS Management Information ServiceMOA Ministry of AgricultureMOERD Ministry of Energy and Regional DevelopmentMOP Ministry of Finance (Treasury)MPND Ministry of Planning and National DevelopmentMSU Management Support UnitNGOs Non-Governmental OrganizationsNORAD Norwegian Aid AgencyODA Overseas Development Administration (UK)PC Provincial CommissionerPFO Provincial Forest OfficerPPM Pan African Paper Mills (EA) Ltd.RAES Rural Afforestation Extension ServiceRDA Regional Development AuthorityROB Roundwood Over BarkSIDA Swedish International Development AgencyTA Technical Assistant or Technical AssistanceT&V Training and Visit ExtensionTDRI Tropical Development and Research InstituteUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeUSAID United States Agency for International Development

9*'*i* ~~~~~ KENYA

Forestry Sv,osector Review

Table of Contents

Suauuary....... < 1I. Forest Resources, Land Use and Environmental Issues..*... 6

Forest R es ources 6Forests, Land Use and the Environment ................. 7

II. FarmFootylRoles of Trees in FarmingFactors Influencing Farmers' Decisions

to Practice Farm Forestry 12Forms of Tree-Growing on Kenyan Farms 13Windbreaks and Shelterbelts 15Farm Forestry and Soil Conset vation .15Markets for Cash TreeCrops .15Technical Development of Farm Tree Cropping............16

-- Farm Forestry Research.... ................. ... 17-- Incentives for Tree-Growing....e...............18-- Extension.. . .. .. . . .... 19--Monitoring and Evaluation......,...............20

-II. Trees as a Source ofFuelvood and Charcoal Demand and Supply.... **.........21Urban Fuolwood.22Urban Charcoal........... * 23Strategies for Developing Urban Woodfuel Supplies ......24

-- Main Problems for this Program9#..........,..25IV. Industrial Forestry.27

Current Status of Kenya's Forest Industry ....... ... . 27Wood and Wood Products Demand and Supply ..............29Forest Management .............. 3Forest Department Finances ... 31

V* Research... ............ e. .. .......... 31VI. Training and Institutional Development ..................34

Education and Training .......... 34-- Lond$ani... .............. .034

-- Mo$ University .......... 34Recommendations Regarding Education and Training .......35The Forest Department ...... 36

VII. Five Year Development Program..........................37Table 1. Five Year Forest Development Program .........38Table 2. Five Year Program By Components.o.............39Table 3. Action Program ....... 40

Annex I. Forests, Land Use and Environmental IssuesAnnex II. Farm ForestryAnnex III. Urban Woodfuel Issues and Forestry in KenyaAnnex IV. Industrial ForestryAnnex V. Forest ResearchAnnex VI. Institutional Development of the Forest Department

Bibliography

KENYA

FORESTRY SUB8ECTOR REVIEW

SUMNARY

1. The forestry subsector in Kenya is facing serious problems. Ifthey are not addressed, the economic costs incurred could be great.Critical watersohd protection forests are in danger of being lost toencroacbment or damaged irreparably, threatening downstream agriculturethrough erosion and flooding, human populations through disruption to watersupplies, hydro electric schemes through siltation problems, the touristindustry through damage to wildlife habitat, and future generations throughloss of invaluable gene pools of flora and fauna. A woodfuels crisis islikely to accompany the movement of charcoal production on a wider scale onto ecologically fragile savannah forests and woodlands in the 1990s. Thereis an urgent need for improvements to forest land use planning. The legal,policy, management and financial structures in place at present needstrengthening to deal with these problems. A major redirection of forestryis needed.

2. The strateav recommended in this report is aimed at tighteningcontrol over what is happening in the natural forests, establishing forestland use planning on a sound basis, improving management of both naturaland exotic forests, and creating a climate which would ecourage majorInvestment by the country's farmers in tree growing. The major emphasis ontree growing on Individual farms calls for a redirection of officialpolicies and activities in forestry, and is in line with the priority givento tree growing In the Government's 1986 Sessional Papert EconomicManagement for Renewed Growth. The recommended program outlined belowincludes investment In forest protection and management, inventories,research and extension; updating of laws and changes In policies; and aprogram of institutional development for the Forest Department whichaddresses its financial and labor force difficulties. The report has beenprepared by a team from the World Bank and various donor agencies whichvisited Kenya in September, 1986.

3. The report deals with issues in five critical areas:

(a) Preservation and management of Kenya's natural forests forerosion control, water regulation, habitats for wildlife,conservation of gene pools for flora and fauna, and growth ofthe tourist industry (Chapter I and Anne I);

(b) Expansion and improvement of tree srowint on farms to takeadvantage of the economic and environmental benefits to berealized, and to make a major contribution to alleviating thewoodfuels crisis foreseen for the 1990s (Chapter II and AnnexII);

(c) Addressing the more than twofold expansion in demand forwoodfuels foreseen for the next 20 years as the populationcontinues its rapid increase (Chapter III and Annex III);

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(d) Management of the Industrial Plantations for more efficientproduction of t-heir current contribution of around KSh 1billion annually to the country's economy, and the expectedtripling of demand for industrial products in the next 25years (Chapter IV and Annex IV)1

(e) Institutional changes and development programs needed to moveforestry in new directions in Kenya (Chapters V and VI andAnnexes V and VI).

Preserving and Managinx the Natural Forests

4. If nothing were done to contain the continuing encroachment on thenatural forests, and forests on key watersheds were cut down, there wouldbe severe erosion in these watersheds, serious disruption of water suppliesin most of Kenya's Important rivers, and downstream effects on agriculturalproduction. This would affect, in particular, the Kerio, Ewaso Ngiro,Thika, Tana, Athi, Tsavo, and Galana rivers, upon which a signif1.cantproportion of the country's population depends for their water supplies.River flows would become highly erratic and would diminish -itically forlong periods in each year. There would also be severe siltation problemsfor major hydro electric schemes, both current and planned. Agriculturalproduction would be affected through flooding, erosion and reduction inwater available for irrigation. Water supplies and vegetation in majorgame parks would be threatened, which could lead to decreases in numbers ofgame animals. The resulting damage to the tourist industry could totalmore than KSh 640 million (US$ 40 million) per year. A reduction in outputof major agricultural crops of only 12 would cost the country at least KSh170 million (US$ 11 million) per year. There would be losses to thecountry's livestock industry through reduction in grazing and watersupplies. Last, but not least, valuable gene pools would be lost, of bothflora and the many species of fauna which find their habitat in theforests.

5. To prevent the damage and losses described above, it is imperativeto stow encroachment on the forests, and to improve forest management andforest laud use planning (paras 1.15 - 1.20). An urgent first step is toextend effective control of the Forest Department (FD) over all vulnerableforests. This implies gazettement of at least an additional 500,000hectares of forest land, and strengthening the abilities of the FD toprotect gazetted lands. More information is also needed quickly, whichrequires further survey work and establishment of a detailed forestinventory. Based on this information a nationwide forest land usemanagement plan should be prepared. It is estimated that a five yearprogram of inventory and strengthened protection covering 40 ForestReserves could cost about KSh 118 million (US$ 7.4 million) (Table 1).Some 702 of this would be recurrent costs.

Development of Tree Growing on Farms

6. Farmers in Kenya grow trees on their farms to a striking extentand use them in a wide variety of ways. In some localities of highpopulation density, more than 20% of the land area is under woody biomassand more than 7S under managed woody biomass -- trees planted deliberatelyin woodlots, hedges and windrows. It is estimated that Eucalyptus and

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Black Wattle woodlots alone generate more than KSh 10 million per annum inmarketed products and perhaps 10-20 times that much in economic value.Trees provide a wide range of physical and economic benefits, and they haveimportant effects on the environment within which other farm enterprisesare carried out. Many tree products are used in the home or for cash sale.Tree culture is also a means of managing risk, using farm labor effectivelyand distributing income within the family. A review of the markets forconstruction poles, sawn timber, pulpwood and woodfuels suggests profitableways to expand tree growing on farms. Returns in the vicinity of KSh 35-45per day of labor are feasible. There are also valuable opportunities formanaging trees in conjunction with other crop and livestock enterprises toenhance the productivity of these enterprises.

7. To exploit some of these tree growing enterprises on farms, and toopen up further opportunities, new approaches to research and emphasis onextension are required, as well as changes in policies to encourageprofitable initiatives by individual farmers (paras 2.17 - 2.26). Thisreport recommends that subsidised distribution of tree seedlings by thepublic sector should be drastically reduced, and confined to cases wheretrees are difficult to raise on farms. This could save more than KSh 25million per year in subsidies and focus attention on management of trees onfarms. In most situations individual farmers are well able to grow theirown seedlings and should be encouraged to do so, but their managementpractices need improvement. In order to encourage sustainable productionof woodfuels, the pricinx system, particularly for charcoal, needs to beexamined and adjusted. Provision of credit specifically designed for treecropping could be a valuable incentive, for medium sized and larger farms.

8. Efforts in the public sector should be focused on improving thegenetic potential of tree species, and on developing new or improvedagricultural systems involving trees and transferring these to farmers.The major concerns in research are to develop the Kenya Forest ResearchInstitute (KEFRI) into an innovative and dynamic center, restructure itsprograms, and establish close coordination among the numerous organizationsworking in related fields, including KARI, MOERD's Regional AgroforestryCenters, NGOs and many donor-supported projects. The Rural AfforestationExtension Service (RAES) of the Forest Department should take the lead incoordinatinft extension for tree growint. The most efficient arrangementwould be for RAES staff to become Subject Matter Specialists in farmforestry, providing technical guidance and support to field workers in theMinistry of Agriculture's T and V extension service, who would in turnconvey technical messages to farmers. A five year program to begin settingup the kind of research and extension systems needed could cost KSh 238million (US$ 15 million), including research and extension to underpin thewoodfuel development program outlined below (Table 1, components B, C andE).

Kenya's Woodfuels Situation

9. A woodfuels crisis is impending in Kenya because within 5-10 yearsmost of the lands from which charcoal for urban use are today obtained willbe cleared and settled for agriculture. At that point, clearing of treesfor charcoal production is likely to move to ecologically fragile areaswhere it would have devastating effects on soil and water resources. Ifnothing is done to co.unter this trend, more than 2.7 million hectares of

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fragile savannah forests or 450,000 hectares of highland catebment forest(or some combination of the two) may be cleared in the latter part of thiscentury. Because the voodfuels crisis is only 5-10 years away, there isvery little time in which to put in place the measures to deal with it. Toavoid the approaching crisis, this rePort recommends development ofsustainable a M lies of woodfuel, to be grown primarily by farmers and theprivate sector close to urban areas, combined with protection andmanagement of existing forest resources (paras 3.14 - 3.17).

10. The development protram recommended would comprise about 100.000hectares of woodlots established in Forest Reserves, and 200.000 hectaresof woodlots on farms (pare 3.15). A crucial assumption is that iricinaincentives and woodfuel conservation measures would be in place to reduceurban demand to about 65Z of what it would be in the absence of suchmeasures. The woodfuel development program could require investmentsbetween 1988 and the year 2000 of KSh 1.1 billion in the public sector andKSh 1.8 billion in the private sector, a total of KSh 3.0 billion, or anaverage of KSh 250 million p.a. over the 12 year period. By comparison,importing kerosene with the energy equivalent of charcoal production in theyear 2000 could cost more than KSh 2 billion p.a. by that time, andrestoring degraded lands could cost KSh 20 billion in public investment.The initial five year woodfuel program recommended (Table 1) is estimatedto cost KSh 145 million (US$ 9 million) in the public sector, of which onethird would be the research and extension already mentioned above.

Industrial Forestry

11. Kenya's industrial plantations, 165,000 hectares in extent, meetthe greater part of the sewn timber, pulp and paper and other vood productsdemands which together are worth almost KSh 1 billion annually to theeconomy. Demand for these products is projected to increase by more thanthree times over the next 25 years. The plantations are currently beingundercut, however, and estimates In this report suggest that theaccumulating volume might sustain the industry until about the year 2035.Since this calculation is based upon many theoretical assumptions, it wouldbe prudent to plan for, further additions to the plantations long beforethat date. It is safe to conclude, however, that no now plantations needbe established for at least the next 15 years (para 4.08). In the meantimethe emphasis should be on tightening management of existing plantations,including replanting where necessary (par"s 4.10 - 4.11). In particular,assumptions that accumulating wood supplies will help to meet expandingdemand depend on ensuring that thinning of plantations is not undulydelayed.

12. This report recommends tightening of management includingincreases in royalties, continued reductions in the labor force andincreases in labor productivity in industrial operations, and exploringpossibilities for contract labor for certain activities such as pruning andthinning (pares 4.06 and 4.13). Urgent attention is needed to FD finances,since cost recovery targets have not been mets without correction, incomecould drop to 25% of FD expenditures by 1990. A five year program ofinventory, tending and replanting existing industrial plantations,including institutional development connected with these, could cost in thevicinity of KSh 290 million (US$ 18 million).

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Changes In Institutions and Organizations

13. The Forest Department (FD) in the Miniatry of Environment andNatural Resources is the organization most directly responsible fordevelopment of forestry programs in Kenya. It requires but does not alwaysget the consistent, strong political support It needs to deal with thecomplex natural resource issues and development programs it is .hargedwith. As a result it has been repeatedly frustrated in its endeavours. Asmajor priorities, first, the statement of national forest ,olicv should bere-cast to reflect demands on the subsector over the next few years.Second, the forest letislation should be amended to provide the FD moreadequately with the powers it needs to implement the Government's forestpolicy (para 6.10).

14. Given these, the PD should develop in new directions from those ofthe past (para 6.10). While the industrial forestry labor force is beingreduced and management tightened up, much more emphasis now needs to begiven to protection of the natural forests, development of voodfuelresources, and promotion of farm forestry. The increasing Importance offarm forestry extension should be reflected in the establishment in the FDof a new career stream for extension, fully the equal In status andopportunities to that already existing for conventional forestry. Manymore women will be needed in this activity for more effective promotion offarm forestry techniques among Kenya's many women farmers. It would bedesirable to establish Woodfuel Manazement and Monitorins and EvaluationUnits in the PD. Costs for research, extension and a five year program ofinstitutional development at PD headquarters have been Included in thevarious estimates above.

15. Education and traininag of personnel for these new tasks also needto take new directions (pars 6.07). The curricula of the Kenya ForestryCollege at Londiani and Mot University should Include more materialrelating to farm forestry, and to conservation and management of naturalforests. Specializations should be developed in the training programs toprepare students for the new career opportunities which it is recommendedbe set up in the forestry sector. The staff and facilities of theseteaching Institutions need strengthening along lines detailed in thereport.

Develogment Prosram

16. Preliminary estimates covering all of the above proposals suggesta five year development program totalling KSh 742 million (US$ 46 million)which is given in more detail in Tables 1 and 2. The initial steps forwoodfuel development would take up about 20% of this total, and maintenanceof industrial plantations 39Z. Further work is needed to strengthen theseestimates, some of which are notional at this stage. The Forest Departmentshare of the total would be about KSh 515 million, or KSh 103 million peryear. This would be an addition of 27X to the present budget for forestrywhich is about KSh 60 million per annum in recurrent expenditure, and KSh320 million in development expenditure for the 1987188 fiscal year. If theactions recommended are not undertaken, the costs to the economy couldtotal, each vear, more than the entire recommended five year program.

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1. FOREST RESOURCES. LAND USE ANDENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

Forest Resources

1.01 Kenya's gaxetted forests comprise some 1.7 million ha of land(about 2.92 of the land area of 575,000 sq.km.). The gazetted forestsinclude some 50,000 ha of mangroves, mostly In Lamu, Kilifi and KwaleDistricts of the Coast Province. Otherwise, they are mostly contiguoushigh forests. Of the gazetted forests, 652 are in Rift Valley Province,21% in Central Province and Nairobi, 5% in Eastern Province, 7S in CoastProvince and 21 in Western Province. The Forest Department is proposingthat a further 0.5 million ha (222 Government and 782 Trust land) begazetted, i.e. reserved permanently for forestry, including environmentalprotection. This report supports that proposal.

1.02 Outside of the gazetted forests are the large tracts in Trustlands under County Councils, and in the National Parks and NationalReserves. Some 237,000 ha, mainly at high elevations on six majormountains, are reserved as National Parks and 375,000 ha in six widelydistributed areas as National Reserves. The areas under forest withinthese Parks and Reserves is not known. Outside all the above categoriesare the extensive woodlands of the arid and semi-arid areas, covering asmuch as 47 million ha.

1.03 Forest lands are under various forms of management. Those thatare gazetted are managed by the Forest Department (on behalf of CountyCouncils in the case of the tracts that are in Trust lands). Gazettedforests are managed either as production forests (for output of woodproducts) or protection forests (for maintaining watershed, fauna and floravalues). Within the former category, some 165,000 ha (101 of the total)have been converted to industrial plantations, principally of exoticsoftwoods, while 53,300 ha (31 of the total) are specially protected asNature Reserves. The National Parks and National Reserves are administeredby the Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife for nature conservation andtourism, extractive activities being prohibited. Some forests and mostwoodlands are not under any special management designation but are treatedas ordinary Government or County Council Trust land. Many encroachmentproblems occur on these lands, which are not under FD control.

1.04 There has been no complete inventory or mapping of the forestswith respect to their actual extent, content or condition. The work thathas been done in these respects, apart from being fragmentary, is largelyout of date and therefore inaccurate in reflecting the current situation.There has been no inventory of the natural forests to provide a basis forcalculation and management on sustained yield principles since the 1960's.Information on growth In harvested areas is minimal. There are noestimates of sustained yield harvesting rates in those management plansthat exist.

1.05 Considerable areas within the gazetted forests are not covered byactual forest vegetation. Depletion of the forests in face of other landuses has been in progress for many years, and is continuing. Surveys of a

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sample of 62,000 ha of forest by the Kenya Rangeland Ecological MonitoringUnit (KREMU) in 1981, using satellite imagery and aerial photography,indicate that the tracts examined had been depleted at a rate of about 22per annum over eight years. Such rates vary markedly from forest toforest, and some areas have been completely degraded within the past twoyears. Recent sample surveys carried out with the assistance of the BeijerInstitute have intdicated the widespread, relatively high area ccverage oftrees on farms: in some regions as much as 202 of the land area is underwoody biomass. A comprehensive Inventory and assessment of the conditionof the forests, and of wood resources outside of forest reserves, is neededurgently as a basis for policy review, management planning and action.

1.06 The forests and woodlands are the source of important economic,social and onvironmental benefits to the country. They play vital,multiple roles regulating and optimizing the distribution and flow ofwaters conserving and protecting the soil mantle; providing habitat and dryseason refuge for the wildlife complex that, along with wilderness values,are the foundation of Kenya's important tourist industry. They are thesource of virtually all the nation's supply of building and other poles,fuelwood, sawntimber, veneers and plywood, pulp and paper, provide numerousforms of other commodities, e.g. fruit and fodder, that are of particularimportance to rural people, and ameliorate the human environment. Theproducts of Kenya's forests are valued at more than KSh 2 billion perannum, providing about 9X of the country's agricultural GDP, and wood-basedindustry import savings of an estimated KSh 928 million per annum (3.8S ofthe total import bill). Charcoal and fuelvood provide 772 of total energyconsumed. About 14.000 persons find employment in management of forestsand up to 6,000 in wood processing industries. Charcoal extractionprobably creates the equivalent of 30,000 full time jobs for charcoalburners, and another 1,200 further down the marketing chain.

1.07 It is clear that the forest and woodland areas have diminishedgreatly in the past, and are continuing to be reduced, primarily as aresult of extreme pressures for agricultural land -- particularly in thehigh rainfall areas where natural forests occur adjacent to the bestagricultural land -- as well as from excessive harvesting of woodfuels andlivestock fodder. Some 202 of the land is classified as having high ormedium potential for agricultural production. On it live 802 of thepopulation. These higher potential areas also contain 801 of the forests.The country's burgeoning population, growing at 4X pa, is threatening theintegrity of the remaining forest and woodland cover to an increasingdegree, and -- in the absence of controls -- at an increasing rate ofdepletion.

Forests, Land Use and the Environment

1.08 Encroacbment on, and overcutting and overgrazing of the forestsare threatening their critical functions in preventing erosion, regulatingwater supplies, providing refuge and habitat for wildlife, and protectingvaluable gene pools of flora and fauna. Destruction of these criticalfunctions in turn would have a significant impact on the agriculture andtourist industries which are vital to Kenya's economic wellbeing, as wellas threatening water supplies for a large proportion of the population andcausing severe siltation problems for hydro-electric schemes on the major

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rivers. Most of Kenya's important rivers, in particular the Kerio, EwasoNgiro, Thika, Tana, Athi, Tsavo, and Galana, have their upper catchmentsprotected by forests which are subject to intense pressures.

1.09 In the worst case, were forests on key watersheds to be cut downwith no provisions for soil conservation, river flows would become highlyerratic and would be reduced to very low levels for lengthy periods of eachyear. This would bring about major disruptions in water supplies for alarge proportion of the population. It would result in severe flooding atother seasons of the year, with serious consequences for the many thousandsof people living in flooded areas. The disruption of water supplies tomajor game parks would threaten both the vegetation cover and the gameanimals themselves. The resulting damage to the tourist industry couldtotal more than KSh 640 million (US$ 40 million) per year (Annex I, pp43-48). Even a 1S drop in yields of major agricultural crops and livestockwould reduce the value of production by KSh 170 million (US$ 11 million)annually. Siltation of reservoirs in hydro-electric and Irrigation schemeswould seriously reduce their effectiveness, life and contribution to theeconomy. The value of lost gene pools is impossible to calculate.

1.10 Assessing the consequences of losing the protection forests isgreatly hampered by lack of data. This review was able to make onlyindicative assessments (Annex I) because even data such as numbers ofpersons living along major rivers and their agricultural production, or theprecise status of various forests, were unavailable. Although scientistsare agreed on the general directions of the erosion, water regulation,flooding and sedimentation effects described above, there have been fewexperiments which have successfully quantified them in Kenya. An fm.ortantrecommendation of this report, therefore. is for marked improvement in theinformation available for Planning. While the necessary manatemement plansare prepared it is essential that the forests are protected from furtherencroacbment and damage.

1.11 A major complication in assessing damage from clearing forests isthat the damage depends upon how the land is used following clearing. Thesituation described above is the worst outcome, resulting from uncontrolledstripping of the forests with no precautions taken. While there aresignificant areas of forest in Kenya for which no alternatives exist, thelands being too steep or ecologically fragile to countenance other uses,there are several possibilities for other areas. These range from a smallfarm, mixed annual cropping agriculture through livestock grazing, moreextensive cropping on larger farms, perennial crops such as tea and coffee,farm woodlots, and other forms of forestry to replace cleared forests(Annex I, pp. 27-39). While the amount of care taken with specific soilconservation measures (such as cultivation and planting on contours,terracing, and individual tree planting In critical places) affects theenvironmental damage associated with any one of these alternative landus8e small scale annual cropping is, in general, likely to lead to themost severe erosion. This has been the most common land use to followencroachment on the forests in Kenya. Most forms of land use other thanforests would, of course, lead to reduction of wildlife habitat with lossesto the tourist Industry, and to the decline of gene pools.

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1.12 Leaving aside the environmental and wildlife/tourism consequences,comparisons of various alternative land uses (Annex I, Table 16) suggestthat the most valuable alternatives would be perennial crops such as teaand coffee, and pyrethrum and potatoes. Returns from fuelvood and charcoalwoodlots compared favorably with those estimated for annual crops andllvestock, except for particularly intensive and well managed variants ofthe latter two. The most common enterprises currently carried out on landsconverted from agriculture -- maize and wheat at low levels of technology-- were less attractive, and some activities showed negative returns.Adding environmental effects could alter the ranking of some of theseenterprises, by affecting the performance of the enterprises themselves aswell as by causing downstream damage of undetermined magnitude.

1.13 What is actually happening in the forests? The results of theassessment carried out for this review are detailed in Annex I (pp.15-25,summarized in Table 9). The assessment is based on inspections from theground and air, review of relevant studies, and analysis of the limitedinventory data available. It covers 10 major highland forests, 4 semi-aridforests and 5 main coastal forest areas. In most of the first group therewas serious encroachment by farmers or pastoralists -- sometimesspearheaded by abuses of the Forest Department's shamba system and/orexacerbated by its retired workers. The growing stock has been, andcontinues to be subject to overcutting -- sometimes illegal. Encroachment,observed In all forests, is especially severe in the Mau forests and inthose of the Machakos area. In the Mau forests those parts underjurisdiction of the Narok County Council have been particularly depleted.There were instances of boundary disputes and others in which the integrityof the forest was threatened by proposed public road construction. Theissuance of too many licenses and inadequate patrolling have led toharvesting in many areas far beyond sustained yield rates. Overcutting wasobserved particularly in the Mt. Kenya and Kakamega forests, and illegalcutting in the Aberdares, Mt. Kenya, Mt. Elgon, Mau and Arabuko forests.Frequently the areas under greatest pressure are those outside gazettedforests, and therefore not under effective control of the ForestDepartment.

1.14 Protection of the forests in the semi-arid areas (including thoseat the source of Mombasa's water supply) has been made more difficult bythe isolation and often small size of the forest tracts. Nevertheless,most have been subject to over exploitation, over grazing, encroachment forcultivation and residence, and burning, in some cases to the point ofextinction. These practices have applied also to the remaining forests ofthe coastal area and riverine forests in the dry regions. The mangroves(as well as the fish and crustacean stocks for which they provide breedinggrounds) are subject to severe depletion through heavy cutting and saltproduction.

1.15 It is a matter of urgency that protection of the forests should bestrengthened. and forest exploitation brought under control before anyother significant decisions are taken about future land use. This requiresextending an effective mandate to the Forest Department to bring under itsprotection all vulnerable forests. The immediate priorities should be to:

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- finalize and enact legislation to gazette all the lands whichneed to be brought under the protection mandate given to the ForestDepartment;

- halt encroachment of all forms into and evict illegal occupantsfrom the gazetted and other public forests;

- eliminate illegal cutting and pitsawing;

- suspend cutting, at least for the time being, in over exploitedareas and all riverine forests;

- reduce licensed cutting rates where they are manifestlyunsustainable;

- intensify the control of legal harvesting;

- re-assert the physical demarcation of forest boundaries andintensify patrolling, giving priority to imediately threatened sectors;

- suspend action temporarily on any new excisions from thegazetted forests.

To give effect to these measures, a significant increase is needed in theresources which the FD devotes to forest protection, along with trainingand deployment of the additional staff involved.

1.16 Simultaneously a national forernt inventory, including up-dating ofcover and land use maps, should be initiated to establish the extent,content and condition of forested lands. This activity would begin with arapidly conducted reconnaissance of all categories of national land as wellas pertinent existing information, to enable planning of the detailedinventory, to facilitate review and up-dating of the Government's land useand forest policies as well as definition of strategies to implement them.As detailed inventory data become available, preparation of national andindividual gazetted forest management vlans (reflecting sustained yieldharvesting rates wherever appropriate) should proceed as a priority (AnnexI, pp. 56-58). Areas would be identified for management as ProtectionForests, Nature Reserves, Buffer Zones to these two categories, and asthose to be used for tourism. Some areas should be transferred to NationalParks, with strengthening of the National Parks Service to manageeffectively the wildlife and woodland resources of the parks. Oncecompleted, the forest inventory would need to be updated at regularintervals (say 5 years) to aid effective management.

1.17 Proposals to excise land from gazetted forests to other uses,particularly agriculture, should be made sparingly in the light ofexceptional circumstanees, should be carefully planned and made only on thebasis of realistic assessment of the environmental consequences.Conversion to traditional annual cropping should normally be avoided. Insuch instances and when land is to be transferred fo_ grazing purposes,intensive soil conservation measures should be insisted upon. Where itwould be unrealistic to regain heavily encroached areas, they should beexcised. In any event, wider conversion of forest land to agriculture

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would have only a limited impact on Kenya's shortage of agricultural land(Annex I, p. 53) while introducing environmental problems if done in thewrong way.

1.18 To minimize adverse environmental effects, the best candidates foralternative land uses would be perennial crops (especially tea) and privatefuelwood and charcoal production under overall Forest Department guidance.A related development is the Tea Belt scheme which Government has launchedwith the dual goals of forest protection (a 100 metre wide belt of teaaround the perimeters of gazetted forests), and revenue earning (allrevenues are to accrue to Government, which manages the scheme on gazettedforest lands). While a plausible idea in principle, this scheme needsfurther careful planning and evaluation before it is Implemented on a widerscale as a major form of forest protection. Because of unsuitability ofsome lands for tea production, the result is likely to be patches of tearather than a belt--it is uncertain whether this will be sufficient toprotect the forest areas, or whether it would do the job better than moreclearly demarcating and policing forest boundaries. Furthermore,management of the scheme is likely to be difficult because of the dispersednature of the plantings, which may result in uneconomic production of lowquality tea.

1.19 Early, deliberate action will be necessary to enlarge andstrengthen the Inventory and Forest Management Planning Sections of theForest Department and the planning capabilities of the CCF's office andmajor subdivisions at headquarters. At the same times, some reorganizationand strengthening of Provincial, District and Forest Station staffs will berequired to intensify administration, management and protection of theforests. Above all, staff at all levels should be fully informed ofrevised policies and action plans and instructed in detail as to what willbe required of them. These matters are discussed in Annex V.

1.20 Finally, research should be done on growth rates and regenerationof indigenous trees, and continued water and catchment studies, especiallybuilding on earlier studies done in the Kericho and Kimakia areas; furtherresearch Is needed to develop technical packages for rehabilitation andmanagement of degraded lands, rainfall capture, and rotational grazing. Itwould be worthwhile to examine ways in which some of the benefits of forestprotection could be distributed to those living adjacent to them, asincentives for improving protection. There is also a need to expand soilconservation measures on lands taken out of forests, strengthening effortsto this end in the Ministry of Agriculture and making District DevelopmentCommittees the focus of these efforts.

II. FARM FORESTRY

Roles of Trees in Farminh Systems

2.01 Farmers in Kenya grow trees on a remarkably large scale to yield awide range of physical products and environmental benefits, the formerbeing used for home consumption, barter or to augment cash income. Trees

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are valued for their many contributions to the farm economy. Theyconstitute resources for the management of risk, while their hur't2!ndryeffectively distributes farm labor and helps in the allocation of resourceswithin the family. Trees are closely integrated into farming systems inmany parts of the country, but this integration is very poorly documentedby scientific study.

2.02 Physical products include firewood and charcoal, building andother poles, sawlogs, pulpwood, extractives such as essential oils andmedicines, tanbark, livestock fodder, fruits, nuts, flowers and seeds.Markets for these products are in various stages of development and varyacross the country. The most highly organized are those for industrialproducts and the least for livestock fodder. In some instances attentionmay be needed to market development, particularly where it is proposed tointroduce credit into development, since this would imply participation byfarmers in the cash economy.

2.03 Depending on species choice and tree crop design, theenvironmental benefits of trees on the farm can include soil stabilizationand erosion control; improvement of soil structure through the buildup oforganic matterl enhanced soil fertility through nitrogen fixation andmovement of both major and trace elements from deep soil horizons closer tothe 3urface; amelioration of the microclimate for associated or nearbycrops through protection from winds, frost and desiccation of the soilsurface; reduction of evapotranspiration, and increasing humidity by someof the foregoing means as well as capture and stem flow of misty andheavier rain; amelioration of the environment for humans and theirlivestock; providing physical barriers to contain livestock, delineate farmboundaries and increase privacy.

2.04 Some of these functions may have negative as well as positiveeffects. For example, while some trees improve soil chemistry, others makesoils more inhospitable for other crops, either by releasing harmfulchemicals or by competing vigorously for nutrients (including water).Under some circumstances, shading effects may provide a less hospitablemicroclimate for crop production than would have existed in the absence oftrees. The interactions between trees and other crops are simultaneous,complex, only partially understood and little quantified. This means thatimproving the productivity of trees in farming systems involves carefulresearch. A key requirement is to know where simple improvements inmanagement could be introduced to raise tree productivity.

Factors Influencing Farmers' Decisions to Practice Farm Forestry

2.05 Apart from their physical effects, trees influence in complex waysthe management of farming systems. Understanding their role thereforeimplies more than measuring their physical effects, difficult as that maybe. It also involves some comprehension of how farmers perceive the longerterm future and plan for it, and how they prepare strategies to deal withrisks. The division of labor within the farm family also has an importantbearing on decisions about how to use trees.

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2.06 In Kenya, the major aspects of the smallholder's economy--capital,land, labor, and risk management--have particular meaning in relation totree growing. A significant proportion of small farms have operatedlargely outside the cash economy until recent years. The widening networkof primary schooling, however, has increased demand for cash to meet thefees and other costs families incur in ensuring education for theirchildren, which is valued highly. Tree growing can generate some cash withvery little cash outlay, and has been taken up for this reason in somecash-poor areas, where farmers have limited or no access to credit. Fromthe point of view of risk management, trees are attractive because they donot have to be harvested on a rigid time schedule, but keep accumulatingvalue (wood products) and provide a "bank account" which can be drawn uponwhen needed, e.g. in periods of emergency.

2.07 In spite of population pressure on the land in Kenya, many areasexperience labor shortages in agriculture. This apparently paradoxicalsituation arises because of outmigration of men to urban areas, preferencesof men who remain in rural areas for wage labor and for exercisingconsultative roles as community elders, and increasing attendance at schoolby children. On a significant proportion of farms the bulk of farm laborand decision making is provided by women, whose many tasks in foodproduction, household maintenance and family care often leave them short oflabor for expanding farm output. Although trees sometimes yield relativelylow income per unit of land, the return per unit of labor may be quitehigh. Where there is not enough labor available for further cropincreases, therefore, and marginal labor is highly valued as a result,trees may yield a good return.

2.08 Several aspects of land tenure and quality affect decisionsregarding growing of trees. On steep hillsides and other parts of farmswhich might otherwise be unsuitable for cultivation, trees may offer ameans of using the land productively while protecting it against soilerosion. In many parts of Kenya growing trees has been a traditional meansof demarcating land, and of claiming tenure rights over land. At the sametime uncertainty about land tenure as adjudication proceeds in the countryprevents some farmers from planting trees which they might otherwise findadvantageous. In certain regions a tradition that trees belong to menbecause trees are an integral part of the land, which is mostly under maleownership, and that men's permission is required before harvesting treeproducts, has slowed tree growing by women who might otherwise make themajority of decisions on farms. In some Instances creative ways have beenfound to deal with these inhibiting factors.

Forms of Tree Growing on Kenyan Farms

2.09 Although much needs to be learned about the importance and extentof tree growing on farms, certain information is already available. ADistrict Resource Inventory carried out under the Kenya WoodfuelDevelopment Program (KWDP) of the Ministry of Energy and RegionalDevelopment (MOERD) provided interesting data for three Districts withpopulation densities in the range of 260-400 persons per sq.km. For theseDistricts -- Kakamega, Kisii and Murang'a -- more than 20X of the land areawas found to be under woody biomass, and more than 7X under managed woodybiomass i.e. trees deliberately planted in woodlots, hedges and windrows.

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Regression analysis shows that high population density was associated withhigher proportions of farm areas under managed trees. This suggests thatpopulation increase does not necessarily result in long run deforestation,but that initial cutting of indigenous trees may be followed by planting ofnew trees and development of sustainable tree management practices.

2.10 Examples of cash tree crops on farms includes

(a) Eucalyptus woodlots, an estimated 60,000 ha of which exist inhigh potential agricultural areas, typically comprising up to25X of even small holdings in Kakamega District, andsometimes providing the sole source of farm income. Grown onrotations of 3-8 years, estimated incomes from suchenterprises can be as much as KSh 2,600/ha per year;

(b) black wattle woodlots: some 20,000-30,000 ha of these aregrowing in high potential agricultural areas, having beenplanted originally for production of tanbark for which treeswere felled at 8 years of age. Now that the tannin industryhas declined somewhat, the woodlots are used for fitos(slender sticks for traditional house construction made fromearly thinnings), fence posts, building materials andfuelwood. Estimated income is KSh 1,000-1,500/ha; it isestimated that Eucalyptus and wattle together generate morethan KSh 10 million per annum in farm income (thisconservative estimate reflects the small proportion of outputsold in formal markets; the value of the total harvest may be10-20 times as much);

(c) cypress and vine windrows: in multi-storey hedges, individualtrees are frequently left to grow taller as a source ofsawlogs after a 20-30 year rotation. Prunings are a sourceof fuelwood;

(d) pulpwoods around 10,000 cu.m. per year are sold by farmers tocontractors for the Pan African Paper Mills, at Webuye. Muchof this is reported to be from felling over aged Eucalvptuswindrows which are not being replaced;

(e) horticultural tree crops: these include mango, cashew,macadamia, papaya, tamarind, coconut, guava, citrus andavocado, which make a significant contribution to thecountry's economy. Management strategies for these cropshave been developed by MOA.

2.11 The major species of trees used on farms for indirect incomegeneration ares

(a) for nitrogen fixationt several indigenous species of Acacia(except A.mearnsii and A.tortilis which are avoided becauseof their allelopathic effects on other crops and theircompetition for water) and Sesbania which is commonlyintercropped with maize in Western Kenya;

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(b) for mulch: Markhamia platycalyx, Albisia awumifora,Asadirschta lndica, Cordia abvssinlca, Croton me-alocarous,Erythrina abyssinica, Grevillea robusta, Acrocarnusfraxinifolius, and Glvricidia seplum;

(c) for livestock fodder and browse: while the use of treefodder is common throughout the semi-arid uplands and aridwoodlands of Northern Kenya, using the natural vegetation,few trees are planted there for this purpose. Planted treesfor livestock fodder are mostly in living fences, which alsoproduce fuelwood and poles. The most common species areAcacia brevispica, Zisyphus mauritanta and A.elation. Alsofavoured for fodder production are A.albida and Sesbaniasesban. Euihorbia tirucalli is an important hedge plant anddry season fodder.

Windbreaks and Shelterbelts

2.12 Windbreaks and shelterlelts are especially common in the RiftValley around Nakuru and on the Rinangop and Keringet plateaus. While nodata are available from Kenya 6s to the value of such shelter, aspeculative calculation for Kakamega District, based on data for the Sudan,suggests that the shelter effect could be worth as much as KSh 30 millionp.a. in net incremental production of crops. The fact that farmers plantfor shelter testifies to the perceived worth of such investment, and thelack of data points to the need for further study.

Farm Forestry and Soil Conservation

2.13 Soil conservation is widely and intensively practiced in Kenya,terracing being a feature on 312 of all farms. The incorporation of treesinto these measures, in designs such as alley cropping, is rapidly gainingacceptance. Species of Leucaena and Ervthrina are used for these purposes.

Narkets for Cash Tree Crops

2.14 Before advocating improvements to, or expansion of tree productionon farms, it is Important to be sure that reasonable markets exist for theproducts. A considerable amount of further work is required to developadequate understanding and quantification of these markets in Kenya.Preliminary calculations, of which more details are given in Annexes II,III and IV, suggest the followings

- construction voles: the present demand of about 1 million cu.m.per year seems likely to double by the year 2000. At least half of thepresent demand is met by formal markets, with prices ranging from KSh 250per cu.m. for large poles to RSh 475 per cu.m. for fitos. The most commonindigenous species used are Markhamia platycalyx, Bridelia micrantha andTerminalia brownii, while the most common exotics are the Eucalyptus. Thepole mArkets are poorly understood and need study urgently. A model forimproved smallholder pole production (Annex II) estimates returns with apresent value of KSh 23,000/ha over 20 years, or KSh 36 per day of laborexpended;

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- black wattles until recently, it has been quite lucrative forfanmers to sell wattle bark to one of the two tanning extracts companies inThika or Eldoret, but the market has since become seriously depressed byintense international competition from synthetic tannins. Farmers haveaccordingly fallen back on the other products (fence posts, buildingmaterials and fuelvood) which have hitherto been secondary but are nowvalued at about twice as much as the bark;

- sawntimber: the current demand of about 195,000 cu.m. per yearis also expected to double by the year 2000. Since trees for sawnwood areoften grown on boundaries and around homesteads, this provides income atlow cost and with low management requirements. Major indigenous speciesused include Chlorophora excelsa, Maesopsis eminii, Afzelia cuanzensis andPodocarpus gracilior; other species are Cupressus lusitanica, Acrocarpusfraxinifolius and Grevillea robusta.

- pulwoods the Pan African Paper Mills currently uses around30,000 cu.m. of Eucalyptus per year, which is 1OX of its total intake. Ifa proposed expansion of the mill takes place the demand for Eucalyptuscould increase to 60,000 cu.m per year, which would present to tree farmersa significant opportunity if they could obtain a fair stumpage price. Thisamount of pulpwood could be produced from 2,500 ha of Eucalyptus woodlotsmanaged on a sustained yield basis. A model for this activity suggests apossible return of KSh 45 per day of labor expended (Annex II);

- fuelwood and charcoal: markets for these products are morediffuse than for the other products, and will be dealt with later in asection devoted specifically to them; they also are likely to providesignificant opportunities to farmers who are eager to expand tree cropping.

Technical Development of Farm Tree CroppLng

2.15 Because trees are already used extensively in many of Kenya'sagricultural areas, development of tree enterprises can comprise a mixtureof improvements to existing techniques and introductions of new techniques,species and initiatives. One of the principal limitations to thisdevelopment is lack of scientific knowledge itself, and the unavailabilityin some instances of well proven technical packages ready for uptake byfarmers. One prospect for improvement of existina systems is introducinginto hedgerows species which have greater potential for nitrogen fixation,fodder production and use as mulch. Another technology for whichimprovements have already been demonstrated on some farms is theSesbania/Maize intercropping system, to which passion fruit as a cash crophas been added successfully, using the Sesbania poles as support structuresfor the vines. Knowledge about better nurseries, woodlot planting andhusbandry practices, tree spacing and coppice management, is largelyavailable and could be spread more widely among farmers. New uses fortrees, whose uptake could be expanded, include alley cropping (an estimated2,000 farmers in Western Kenya have adopted Leucaena alley cropping), treesin soil conservation systems, and management of trees in communal lands.

2.16 Developing tree cropping on farms will entail much work onelaboration of viable technical packages, dissemination of knowledge to thefarming community, distribution of inputs, market development, and putting

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in place policies which will ensure that farmers have adequate incentivesto expand activities demonstrably beneficial to the country's economy. Ascrops on farms trees lag behind o her crops in attention to all of thesedetails, because of the past emphasis on plantation management of trees forindustrial end uses. Some priorities for research, extension and policieswill be discussed here, leaving until later the organizational arrangementsbest suited to the proposed development program.

2.17 Farm Forestry Research should be oriented towards both subsistenceproduction of fuelwood, fruit, fodder, and building poles, and cashenterprises producing poles, fuelvood and pulpwood from woodlots, as wellas intereropping trees with other crops. Priorities include socioeconomicstudies of constraints to uptake of tree enterprises, market development,identification and genetic improvement of multi-purpose fast growingspecies, production and distribution of seeds for these, elaboration ofmanagement packages for higher yields, studies to improve understanding ofinteractions between trees and other crops and their effects on soils,growth and yield studies, rotational grazing and range managementtechniques. For energy applications, better techniques are needed forshort rotation intensive fuelwood plantations, Eucalyptus rehabilitation,Improved use of waste wood, charcoal manufacture, and woodlenergyconversion. Advanced technologies from other countries would provideuseful starting points in many of these areas. In some cases they wouldprovide reasonably well tested technologies which could require onlyadaptive research in Kenya. A comprehensive survey of available knowledgeshould therefore be done, before anything else.

2.18 Tree "provement work should be designed to exploit the variationin biomass and pod production potential inherent in Acacia and Prosopisspecies, to examine through provenance trials the potential of the recentlyre-aligned genera of the Casuarinaceae (introduced along with their nativerhizobia), and to seek genetic improvement in such indigenous species asMarkhamia Platvcalvx and Balanites ae=yptica for use as multipurpose treesin more marginal areas. There is a largely unfulfilled need for seed ofgenetically improved cultivars of the species with which farm forestry isconcerned. A very promising seed technology program has been initiatedwhich needs strong support. The aim should be for farmers eventually to beusing only genetically improved seed, even if attainment of this goal ismany years away. The Kenya Forest Research Institute (KEFRI) shouldposition itself as soon as possible to distribute basic packages forestablishment of seed stands or orchards by whatever organizations can growthem. These organizations (e.g. RAES, various NGOs, and the AgroforestryCenters of MOERD) would then distribute genetically superior seed for useby individual farmers to raise their own planting stock.

2.19 Nursery practices should be reviewed as a basis for advisingfarmers on the best methods for raising seedlings. Vegetative propagation,particularly cuttings and 'ayering, should be developed and promoted foruse by farmers wherever feasible. Specific recommendations need to bedeveloped regarding tree management methods such as lopping, pollarding andcoppicing. Preliminary work begun on these at the Agroforestry Centers ofMOERD should be extended and systematized. Models based on data from thesemi-arid Machakos area and research in other countries (Hoekstra, 1983)suggest that trees planted in various agroforestry designs -- shelterbelts,

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hedges, alleys, field borders and scattered individual plantings -- wouldbe likely to confer significant benefits on crops associated with them.There are no rigorous basic research results yet from Kenya to confirmwhether this is so. Such research is badly needed, to measure the impactof various tree formations on crop yields and soils, and allow design ofbetter systems. To do this would improve the basis for species selection,decisions about height, spacing and density of trees, and design ofcultivation and cultural treatments. For fuelwood and fodder, studies areneeded to produce volume and yield tables which account for total biomassand usable products from various types of tree stands.

2.20 The major input needed in farm tree growing is good qualityplanting material. The approach taken to this so far in Kenya has focusedon seedling production and distribution through public agencies, oftensubsidized. It is overwhelmingly clear that farmers can, for most trees,grow their own seedlings, although their management of nurseries oftenneeds upgrading. Administration of the subsidy program leads to an FDfocus on seedling production rather than advising farmers how to improvemanagement. This report recommends that public production of seedlingsshould be sharply curtailed, and confined to:

- trees in arid and semi-arid areas;

- trees difficult to germinate on farms;

- trees with low survival rates;

- trees for which the availability of seedstock is low; and

- Improved genetic stock.

2.21 Incentives for tree zrowint need further study. They arediscussed in Annex II. The burden of seedling subsidies is likely soon tobecome intolerable -- the Forest Department is selling 60 million seedlingsper year at a price of KSh 7.51100 which cost the Department KSh 50/100 toraise. The KSh 26 million subsidy represents 7.51 of the total present FDbudget. Abolishing the subsidy, however, raises questions about a possibledisincentive effect, and whether any less costly ways of providingincentives can be found, if indeed they are necessary. Tax incentivescould be useful for stimulating larger scale tree planting, as returns fromtrees become unfavorable if taxed too steeply. Provisions to allow farmersto write off tree investment costs against other income would be welcomedby farmers, but there are no precedents for such provisions, and it couldbe difficult to get them into the tax structure. Income support throughbonuses to farmers to grow trees could be a viable interim measure. It isdifficult to set the level and timing of such bonuses, however, and merelyhaving them would not guarantee a market for the tree products when theywere forthcoming. Where there are potential markets for tree products,vigorous market development should be a priority. Credit could be useful,especially for the medium sized farm, but the problem in Kenya has beendelivering credit to small farmers on a significant scale. Government isnow actively supporting lending through commercial banks, and allowingmargins to be increased to encourage this. For the small farmer, creditmay not be attractive, because repayment within a set period removes the

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flexibility of harvesting time. Furthermore, risk discount rates for smallfarmers may be too high to allow borrowing cash for Investments whosereturns accrue only over a number of years.

Extension

2.22 In dealing with tree growing on farms, various modes of extensionhave been tried in Kenya (Annex II, pp. 27-33). While valuable lessonshave been learned from this diversity, the time has come to consolidateextension by adopting a dominant approach which will be replicable over awide area. The main public sector extension services are (i) that of MOAwhich operates through a Training and Visits (T and V) system (advice abouttrees is at present carried mainly by NOA's Soil and Water ConservationProgram), and (ii) that of the Ministry of Environment and NaturalResources through the Rural Afforestation Extension Service (RAES) of theForest Department. The Ministry of Energy and Regional Development(NOERD), through its six Agroforestry Centers, provides training andconducts deionstrations, especially related to woodfuel development. Itsdemonstrations of Improved designs for cookstoves have assistedestablishment of private sector mantfacture.

2.23 Outside the public sector, more than 50 NGOs have been active inthe extension field, including CARE-Kenya, Catholic Dioceses, Mennonites,the National Council of Women, the Freedom from Hunger Council, WildlifeClubs, Mazangira Institute, Action Aid and the Salvation Army. Theobjectives of NGOs have included income L aration by small farmers,woodfuel products, wildlife preservation and beautification. Importantcoordinating work has been done by the non-profit body Kenya Energy Non-Governmental Organizations (KENGO), which among other things has publishedseveral useful books and pamphlets related to tree growing, and has pusheddevelopment of improved cookstoves. This large number of disparate effortsshould be more closely coordinated in future to avoid duplication.

2.24 This report recommuends that RAES should take the lead indeveloping a strong national agroforestry plan, and in coordinatingimprovements in extension for tree growing. RAES should be strengthened byassigning direct responsiblity for it to one of the Assistant ChiefConservators of forests, upgrading its District Forest Extension Officersto the level of District Forest Officers, developing career paths inextension as prestigious and attractive as those in traditional forestry,improving the salaries, housing and mobility of field staff, and trainingthem for their roles as technical specialists in tree culture.

2.25 This report recommends close coordination between RAES, and MOA'sT&V extension service together with other agencies involved in extensionsuch as Women Groups, Church Groups and other NGOs. The most efficientarrangement would be for RAES staff to develop appropriate technicalpackages and convey the technical messages to farmers through all availableextension agencies. The PD plans that its RARS should develop sufficientfield staff to convey technical packages and messages to the farmerdirectly where necessary and through other extension agencies available.

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2.26 Extension must deal with agro-ecological conditions which changesharply from place to place, dozens of farming systems, hundreds ofcropping patterns, over 30 different local language groups, and widelyvarying local customs and beliefs, with complex roles for different familymembers. The circumstances dictate flexibility and adaptability inextension. Where tree products are sold on a reliable market (or yieldclearly defined non-cash benefits), and technical packages are available,regular extension of the "Training and Visits' variety is appropriate, andthis report recommends that it become the dominant mode for the develomentof agroforestry, incorporating a flexible range of different approaches tofarmers called for in different situations.

2.27 Where tree products are grown solely for the farm household andthere are factors constraining farmer acceptance which need to bediscovered and overcome, an approach involving intensive socioeconomicstudy followed by a promotional campaign targetting the specificconstraining factors has been found to be successful. Used in the KenyaWoodfuel Development Project (KWDP), this employed a slmilar dialogue inboth group discussions and community theatro, wherein solutions were notproposed, but audiences were left wondering about solutions and weresusceptible to followup. Through these means a limited number of peoplowere able to reach a large population. A third approach has been used inthe CARE-Kenya Agroforestry Extension Project. This has been helpful forwork with farmers who are both poor and resource-poor, and the benefit oftrees is unknown or unspecified at the outset. This is a technology-generation process through intensive interaction between farmer andtechnician. It would be too costly to employ on a large scale forextension. Finally, there are some extension messages which lendthemselves to dissemination through mass media, such as radio, television,or theatre. These are effective for promoting general principles such asuse of leguminous trees, or diversifying to include indigenous varieties.Following mass media promotion, farmers can interpret and adapt the messagethemselves. This report also advocates increased use of mass media in treocrop extension in Kenya.

Monitorint and Evaluation

2.28 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) is a data gathering and analysistool to help managers. It provides information for Improved planning,implementation, and assessment of the degree to which objectives are met.M&E contains four broad elements addressed at different project phases:(i) context monitoring, i.e. the environmental and socioeconomic factorsaffecting project design and planning; (ii) project or program monitoringon the basis of inputs (physical, financial or other); (iii) monitoringoutputs, e.g. survival and growth of transplants; (iv) impact evaluation;i.e. the direct and indirect physical and socioeconomic effects. The M&Eprocess is capable of a high degree of objectivity. It can be used toprovide information to different levels of management in respect of e.g.seed distribution, nursery management regimes, plant types, methods of

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distribution or planting, market prices and their structuring, differenttypes ol Interventions, different extension or labor employment strategies,different identAfied social constraints or time scales. M&E providesvaluable feedback for research and extension.

2.29 M&E in relation to some or all of the four project phasesmentioned in the foregoing paragraph is practiced by numerous agencies inKenya involved in promoting tree planting, e.g. NGOs, the FD, MOERD, MOA(in relation to its T&V extension service). However, in few instances isit applied comprehensively, across whole programs of individual agencies orin coordinated fashion in relation to projects of similar nature mounted bydifferent agencies (who might benefit by coordinated M&E activityl). M&Eprograms have been proposed in relation to ESNAP's Kenya FuelwoodDevelopment Project and farm forestry programs in Kenya. This reportrecommends that M&E be initiated in relation to forestry programs as awhole in the country (including conservation of natural forests building onthe PD's Forest Inspection and Protection Unit). It is recommended that,from a small scale beginning, such a program be extended to RAES's farmforestry program, eventually covering all the Districts in which it isapplied. At an appropriate stage all agencies engaged in farm forestryshould be brought into the program. A full discussion of concepts,organization and procedures is included in Annex II.

III. TREES AS A SOURCE OF ENERGY

Fuelwood and Charcoal Demand and Supply

3.01 If fertility and mortality rates remain constant, Kenya'spopulation is projected to grow from around 21.1 million in 1986 to morethan 70 million by the year 2010. Since some 771 of the country's energyneeds are met from woodfuels (either fuelwood itself, or charcoal), thispopulation growth is likely to put a lot of pressure on these sources ofenergy. Based on studies of consumption carried out in the 1970s, and aplanning model used by MOERD, demand for total woodfuels is projected torise from 31 million cu.m. in 1985 to 57.3 million cu.m. by the year 2000,and to 71.6 million cu.m. by 2005, an increase of 131% in 20 years (AnnexIII, Table 1). In rural areas consumption would be largely of fuelwood,demand for which is part of overall rural demand for wood. In urban areasdemand would be met through vigorous market systems, mainly for charcoal.Within the same 20 year period, charcoal demand is projected to rise by1841. By the year 2000, charcoal could account for 431 of total woodfueldemand compared with 35X at present. This is Important because ofsignificant energy losses which occur during the process of carbonizationby which charcoal is made.

3.02 About one half of charcoal is consumed by urban households. Some75% of this occurs in Nairobi and Mombasa, and the balance largely in sevenother urban areass Kisumu, Nakuru, Eldoret, Meru, Thika, Kisii and Nyeri.Rural demand for charcoal is also likely to grow. Woodfuels remain easilythe cheapest source of energy available, and they would have to becomesignificantly more expensive before consumers would shift their preferencesto other sources. A more likely outcome would be sustained conservation

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efforts as wood becomes more scarce. More efficient cooking stoves wouldcontribute to this. Assuming modest increases in prices and incomes,demand for charcoal in the year 2000 could be 35% lower than estimatesgiven above. Even given these conservation efforts, however, a largeexpansion in demand is foreseen.

3.03 In the early 1980., standing stocks of woody biomass wereestimated to be 1.17 billion cu.m., or about 37 times annual demand (AnnexIII, Table 3). Sustainable yields, however, were thought to beconsiderably less than annual demand. A significant depletion of standingstocks could therefore be anticipa%ed. More than one half of current totaldemand (including 902 of urban charcoal demand) is likely met by felling ofstanding stocks which are not replaced.

Urban Fuelwood

3.04 Even though fuelwood satisfies a small proportion of the demandfor woodfuels in urban households (more than 902 of which is accounted forby charcoal), nevertheless demand for energy in this form is projected tomultiply three times in the next 15 years. Fuelwood use in urbanhouseholds is mainly by the poor who cannot afford commercial fuels such asparaffin or charcoal. The poor are allowed to collect dead wood in mostreserved forests and some plantations for a monthly permit fee equivalentto KSh 2 to KSh 5 per cu.m. The bulk of fuelwood consumed in the urbansector is sold directly to agroindustrial and institutional consumers or tofuelwood merchants. These sales are heavily subsidized. The ForestDepartment estimates the cost of growing fuelvood in plantations to be atleast three times the current rate of royalty payment. Fuelwoodcontractors typically obtain supplies from the FD at very low cost and sellthem for very large profits (Annex III, Table 5).

3.05 In 1985 an estimated KSh 2.8 million worth of fuelwood wasdelivered to urban consumers. It provided the energy equivalent of 3million litres of fuel oil, which otherwise would hAve cost industries andother urban consumers about KSh 8.8 million, anc .ne national economy KSh15.3 million. Foreign exchange savings of KSh 15 million from industrialuse of fuelwood instead of fuel oil effectively cost the Government aroundKSh 5 million in fuelwood subsidies. The justification for continuing tosubsidize industrial consumers is unclear. A 1981 FD study recommended analmost three-fold increase in stumpage price to around KSh 60 per solidcu.m. in current terms. Other studies suggested that fuelwood royaltiesshould be as high as KSh 90/cu.m. to cover FD management costs completely,or to pay rent on valuable agricultural land used for plantations.

3.06 This report recommends that serious consideration be tiven toraising the price of fuelwood grown in Forest Department plantations atleast to reflect the cost of replacement. This would be likely to have thefollowing effects:

(a) smallholders and the private sector would be encouraged toproduce fuelwood to meet industrial demands, because theywould probably be able to produce it at lower cost than theForest Department;

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(b) industrial consumers would probably do more of their ownharvesting from reserves and plantations;

(c) industrial users would be less likely to convert theirboilers to use fuelwood instead of conventional fuels; theymight also be encouraged to replace existing wood burnerswith more efficient designs (UNEP is examining the economicsof such substitution); and

(d) urban households would probably demand less marketed fuelwood(this result is unclear because of a lack of data on priceand income elasticities of demand).

3.07 Would such a price rise adversely affect the urban poor?This is an important consideration, because while the percentage of urbanhouseholds heavily dependent on fuelwood for domestic energy is quite low,nevertheless their dependency is also clear. The matter should be studiedfurther along with other aspects of the pricing decision. The analysisdone in this report, however (Annex III, pp.12-14), suggests thatincreasing the price of plantation grown fuelwood would have only a minordirect effect on the urban poor. The main reason for this is that theurban poor who are dependent on fuelvood do not get it through the market,but at low cost from reserved areas, trees growing on private lands, andother sources.

Urban Charcoal

3.08 Most urban demand for woodfuel (more than 90X) is met by charcoal.Virtually all charcoal is marketed. Most of it (601) comes from clearfelling closed forests or savannah rangelands, in small scale lots, whichare being developed for crops or livestock grazing, often in areas recentlyadjudicated. Thus charcoal is not the primary purpose of land clearing,but an efficient by-product, and the resulting charcoal production is notsustainable. Another 20S of charcoal is from small family operations innatural bush, especially in semi-arid rangelands. Under certain conditionsof range productivity and intensity of operation this activity may besustainable, and may create the equivalent of 6,000 full time jobs in ruralareas. The most truly sustainable charcoal enterprises were a by-productof the industry producing tannin from black wattle bark, but price controlshave forced the company involved out of the charcoal business. The largescale, damaging exploitation of rangelands upon which the earlier lucrativeexport trade in charcoal was based has mostly ceased with limits placed onthis trade in the late 1970s.

3.09 Charcoal valued at around KSh 810 million was delivered to urbanmarkets in 1985. This generated an estimated KSh 350 million insupplementary household income in rural areas, creating the equivalent of30,000 full time jobs for charcoal burners, 400 jobs for transporters, and800 jobs for full time retail dealers. For that portion of the charcoalcoming from sustainable systems, employment in growing trees for the tradeis also significant.

3.10 Most charcoal producers pay little or nothing for the wood theyuse. Therefore the costs of charcoal production at present are defined

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largely by producers' labor and materials, efficiency of the conversionprocess, and transportation distances. If costs of growing trees wereadded, charcoal production would not be viable under the current priceceilings for retail sale. Therefore, as long as low cost wood supplieslast, there is little incentive for sustainable systems of charcoalproduction. The current gazetted prices for charcoal are probably breachedon a per-sack basis, but because sacks typically contain more than thegazetted weight, market prices per unit of weight appear to be close totheir equivalent gazetted levels.

3.11 Sustainable charcoal production systems do not play a major rolein today's markets for sound economic reasons:

- trees are cropped for more highly valued products, such aspoles and sawntimber;

- commercial growers cannot compete with virtually freealternative supplies of wood;

- opportunity costs for labor and land are lower in thetraditional charcoal making areas than in places where sustainable treecropping would be likely to occur; and

- indigenous timber, being denser, makes better charcoal thanthat from faster growing, short rotation trees.

3.12 Nevertheless, there are at present some opportunities fordeveloping sustainable systems of charcoal production. For instance,charcoal made close to urban areas could probably be delivered at pricescompetitive with supplies from far away. The distances involved intraditional charcoal haulage are steadily becoming greater. Furthermore,in areas of labor shortages, tree growing begins to make more sense thanother crops because trees need little labor. Trees will also growsuccessfully on some land which, because of its slope or soil structure, isnot well suited to other crops and has a lower opportunity cost. Finally,tree growing for charcoal would relieve pressure on ecologically fragileareas by providing alternatives to clearing rangelands and savannahwoodlands to meet urban charcoal demands.

Strategies For Developing Urban Woodfuel Supplies

3.13 There is little evidence of an urban woodfuel crisis today. Thisstate of affairs is likely to change sharply, however, by the mid-1990s.Within 5-10 years, the lands which are today the principal sources ofcharcoal will be mostly cleared for agriculture, and settled. When thathappens, charcoal will become a primary, rather than a secondary purposefor land clearing. Such clearing would then be likely to shift toecologically fragile areas, where it would have devastating andirreversible negative effects on soil and water resources. If nothing isdone, more than 2.7 million hectares of fragile savannah forests or 450,000hectares of highland catchment forest (or some combination of the two) maybe cleared in the latter part of this century.

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3.14 To avoid the approaching crisis, this report recommends thedevelopment of sustainable suaplies of woodfuel, primarily by farmers andthe private sector close to urban areas, and protection and management ofexisting forest resources. This approach would be less costly than eitherimporting petroleum products to fill the energy gap, or leaving woodfuelmarkets to develop as they will, and being faced with the costs ofrestoring areas degraded as a result. The woodfuel development programoutlined here (details in Annex III, pp. 37-40), could require investmentsbetween 1988 and 2000 of KSh 1.14 billion in the public sector, and KSh1.84 billion in the private sector (Annex III, Table 20), a total of KSh 3billion (US$ 186 million). By comparison, restoring degraded lands couldcost at least KSh 20 billion In public investment, and importing kerosenewith the energy equivalent of charcoal production in the year 2000 couldcost more than KSh 2 billion annually by that time.

3.15 The development proRram envisaged would comprise about 100,000 haof woodlots established in Forest Reserves, and 200,000 ha of on-farmwoodlots. It is estimated that production from such areas could meet thedemand for charcoal in the ten largest urban areas of Kenya. A crucialassumption is that pricina incentives and woodfuel conservation measureswould be in place to reduce urban demand to about 65% of what it would bein the absence of these measures.

3.16 The analysis in Annex III examines other possibilities, such asdeveloping plantations on municipal lands, and sustained yield managementof high forest or savannah rangelands. In both of these cases, the largeareas which would have to be placed under tight management make them lessdesirable than the options recommended. The analysis also examines sixdifferent ways of managing woodfuel production in Forest Reserves (AnnexIII, Table 18), and concludes that a carefully controlled program ofencouraging smallholders to establish woodlots would be the most costeffective solution.

3.17 What would be the main problems for this program, and the furtheractions needed to address these and make it work? Following is a summary:

(a) Opening some Forest Reserve areas to smallholders woulddepart from a more than fifty year tradition of exclusivemanagement by the Forest Department in the interests oftaking the pressure off indigenous forests.

The Forest Department accepts the principle of some woodfuel developmentwithin gazetted forest areas, on condition that such development would beunder its own management. The mission believes this would be viable onlyif the costs typical of past plantation development could be reducedsubstantially. One reason for the FD's exclusive management has been thelong rotations for both indigenous and exotic species in plantationforestry. The argtuments for introducing smallholders into woodfuelproduction are that rotations for this purpose are much shorter (5-7years), and are already undertaken by smallholder tree farmers in Kenya;the savings to Government would be considerable; intensively managed shortrotation tree farming increases the productivity of indigenous forest landat least 20-fold over the sustainable yield of slow growing indigenousspecies, without major risks to watersheds; and other countries have had

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success with this approach (India, Malaysia, Philippines). The FD'sargument for public management of woodfuel plantation in gazetted areas isthat it would be too difficult to control smallholders, and that the longleases involved would be tantamount to giving up these areas permanently.The differences in perception here are difficult to resolve by discussion.In view of the eventual size of program envisaged, and the economictradeoffs, a pilot scheme to test smallholder management is stronglyrecommended.

(b) Tree farming inside Forest Reserves runs counter to thepolicy of not allowing further felling of indigenous forestsinside these reserves.

It is likely that substantial areas of already degraded and cutover forestscan be found inside reserves. Sustained yield woodlots would not reducewater yields or damage soil resources in catchment areas. The programwould use a maximum of 10% of currently reserved areas, in return forpreventing indiscriminate cutting of even larger areas of Kenya'srangelands and forests.

(c) Regardless of the above issues, is there enough landavailable of the right type, and especially with the rightlocation?

The answer to this can be complete only following further survey work.Preliminary surveys suggest that up to 40,000 ha of suitable land could befound within 75 km of Nairobi (Annex III, p.33). This may turn out to be akey factor limiting woodfuel development in close proximity to its mainmarkets.

(d) Price controls limit the ability of sustainable charcoalproducers to recover their costs of growing trees, urbanretail prices are too low to encourage widespread adoption ofImproved cookstoves, royalties which subsidize agroindustrialusers and fuelwood merchants discourage the private sectorfrom developing its own supplies, and there is insufficientincentive to move away from simple earthern kilns to moreefficient units for producing charcoal itself.

The solution would be to adlust price controls in the right direction, orremove them altogether, and eliminate subsidies.

(e) The policy and legal framework for facilitating the programis out of date, and not enough is known about woodfueldemand, supply and prices.

A new statement of Forest Policy is needed to replace that of 1968,especially to clarify legal and institutional mechanisms for closing areasto charcoal burning and controlling flows of charcoal into urban areas.Market surveys are urgently needed to improve the information base forplanning.

(f) Besides incentives, farmers who are potential tree growerswill need comprehensive information about the subject.

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There are significant opportunities for developing farm forestry throughthe forestry and agricultural extension services.

(g) Shifting towards sustainable urban woodfuel development isgoing to be a formidable task. The proposed planting program(av. 20,000 ha per year) is 30 times as big as public sectorwoodfuel plantation establishment over the past 20 years, andthree times the size of the PD's industrial planting program.

Over the short term, priority should be given to pilot schemes to find waysof involving the private sector, especially smallholders, in tree farmingfor urban woodfuel development; to correcting pricing policies; todeveloping an appropriate legal framework; to market studies and buildingup the necessary extension services. Other important initiatives wouldinclude creating a Woodfuel Manarement Unit in the Forest Department,strengthening other aspects of FD management (including its monitoring andevaluation capabilities), and accelerating research in technical areas.

IV. INDUSTRIAL FORESTRY

Current Status of Kenya's Forest Industry

4.01 Virtually the total output of Kenya's forest industry is used tosupply the domestic market. At present the export of timber is restricted.The principal elements of the industry are:

- sawmillinp: about 350 licensed mills, 105 of them long term,produce about 200,000 cu.m. of sawntimber each year. The number oflicensed mills has grown from 180 in 1974. In addition there is anunknown, large number of unlicensed mills, including pitsawyers. Theseunits are difficult to control. Due to technical and financialinadequacies, the product from small mills is generally of low quality.The licensed mills use some 310,000 cu.m. of softwood and 100,000 cu.m. ofindigenous sawlogs each year;

- wood based panel industry, comprising four plywood mills, oneparticleboard and one fibreboard mill, all but one of the plywood millsbeing integrated with sawmills. Annual production includes 27,400 cu.m. ofplywood, 2,800 cu. m. of fibreboard, 535 cu.m. of blockboard and 5,000cu.m. of particleboard;

- plp and paper: the industry comprises one integrated pulp andpaper mill and four non-integrated paper mills. The former, Pan AfricanPaper Mills (EA) Ltd. at Webuye, is the largest wood consumer in Kenya,currently using about 300,000 cu.m. per annum, with sufficient installedcapacity to reach 350,000 cu.m. Its production capacity is 56,000 air drymetric tons per annum (ADMTPA) of chemical pulp and 15,000 ADMTPA ofmechanical pulp, to yield 66,000 finished metric tons per annum (FMTPA).In 1985 production levels reached 93% of pulp capacity and 95Z of paper andpaper board. Three non-integrated paper mills located at Eldoret, Nairobiand Thika produce some 7,000 metric tons per annum (MTPA) of paper, 4,200

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MTPA of tissues and 7,000 MTPA of wrapping papers from recycled waste paperand imported pulp. A fourth similar enterprise, in Nairobi, plans toproduce up to 5,500 MTPA of paper;

- added value enterprisess numerous small enterprisesmanufacture pre-fabricated houses, furniture, machined products such as T &G, parquet and woodblock flooring, mouldings, flush doors and small itemssuch as curtain rings.

4.02 Most mills have difficulty in obtaining their allocated volumes oflogs and therefore operate below capacity. This is not due to shortages ofstanding timber, except in the natural forests. It is due partly to thedepredations of unlicensed operators, but mainly to shortcomings of 7orestDepartment planning and control of forest management and harvesting.Further factors are the technical, mechanical and managerial inefficienciesof the operators, who are susceptible to disruptive market fluctuations inrural areas. The softwood industry shows definite resistance tosubstituting pine for cypress, even though the latter's availability iscurrently one third that of pine. The proportion of cypress will increase,however, in the early 1990s. a

4.03 Sawntimber prices have increased very rapidly during the 1980s.Ex-mill prices are currently about KSh 1,600/cu.m. for cypress andKSh 800-1,500/cu.m. for pine. Although these are below equivalent importprices, Kenyan exports could not compete on cost outside the adjacentregional market. When harvesting of natural forests is fully under controlit may be possible to loosen the restriction on timber exports without illeffect. Exports of paper, which have declined continuously with the riseof domestic consumption, could similarly compete on the regional market.&'f production capacity were increased ahead of domestic demand, formerexport customers could probably be regained. The implications of the newmill in Tanzania would need to be taken into account.

4.04 The level of technology in most of the larger sawmills, plywood,panel and pulp and paper operations, is appropriate to Kenyan conditions,providing a product of reasonable quality while maximizing employmentopportunities. The various elements of the industry are assessed in detailin Annex IV, pp. 1-13. The sawmill under Government management at theForest Industries Training Centre (FITC) was established to be a standardssetting example to the industry as well as a training center. It is bothmore capital intensive and operates at higher cost than traditional millsin Kenya. It is therefore not necessarily a good model for development ofthe country's sawmilling industry. Plans for further capital investmentsuch as addition of a log sorting line are questionable and should bereviewed. The FD reportedly is transforming FITC into a production unit,and plans to make alternative arrangements for training.

4.05 As outlined below, growth in the sawmilling, plywood and papermarkets is likely to be substantial. The implications of this for theindustry are discussed in Annex IV, pp. 37-38, in which it is suggestedthat:

- there should be trials to determine the suitability ofEucalyptus species for use in making veneers, especiallysliced veneers;

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- an interesting market for small diameter EucalyDtus could becreated by using it to supplement supplies of softwood forchemical pulp used in printing and writing papersl

- the possibilities for setting up short rotation farm woodlotsto supply the pulpmill should be considered - such voodlotshave beon developed successfully in the Philippines; and

- to keep costs down, further expansion in pulping capacity atthe existing site at Webuye would reduce overheads, whilefuture expansion of plantations should aim at minimizing woodtransport costs to the mills.

4.06 Two Pricing issues need to be addressed. A study in 1985recommended a 252 increase in product prices from the FITC sawmill in orderto make it profitable in normal commercial terms, which is QOK policy forthis mill. The recommendation has not yet been adopted, and the mill'scontinuing low pricing practices could be affecting viability of privateindustry, since it is one of tho five largest mills In the country. Thesecond issue relates to royalties on wood from Forest Departmentplantations. If these industrial plantations were managed on a commercialbasis (oxcluding extension and forest protection costs borne by the FD),the average breakeven royalty would have to be about KSh 290/cu.m. comparedwith current levels of KSh 134/cu.m. for pulplogs and KSh 260/cu.m. forsawlogs. Raising the royalty as indicated would raise paper prices byabout 32, and sawntlmber and plywood prices by about 152.

Wood and Wood Products Demand and SuPPlY

4.07 Total production of roundwood logs rose from 13.9 million cu.m.(7.2Z coniferous) in 1975 to 19.2 million cu.m. (7.72 coniferous) in 1983,a 382 increase. As much as 92S of this roundwood Is used for fuelwood,2.22 for sawlogs and veneers, 1.51 as pulplogs, and the balance, believedto be mainly Eucalyptus, for other Industrial uses'. Sawntimberconsumption, 199,000 cu.m. in 1986, is projected to increase by 872 by theyear 2000, and by 153X by 2010. Plywood production was 26,000 cu.m. in1986, and could double by 2000, and increase by 235 by 2010. About109,000 FTPA of paper and paperboard were consumed in 1986, three quartersof it locally produced. Consumption could increase 542 by 2000 and morethan double by 2010.

4.08 Annual demand for wood products is projected to remain below thetheoretical sustained yield of the softwood plantations until about theyear 2010 (Annex IV, pp. 28-29). Because demand is likely to be belowpotential supply until that year, the plantations will be cut below theirpotential, and will accumulate standing volumes upon which the industry candraw after 2010. This reserve of delayed thinnings and postponed finalfellings, together with annual growth, should sustain the industry untilabout the year 2035. By that year plantation areas 20-252 bigger than atpresent will be needed to meet estimated roundwood demand on a sustainedbasis. The sustained cut of the plantations, currently estimated at 2.4million cu.m. per annum, will thereafter need to be raised to over 3million cu.m. per annum. The implication of these calculations is that nonew plantations need be developed for a considerable period, perhaps 15

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years or so. In the meantime, the emphasis should be on tighter managementof existing plantations, including their replanting where necessary. Sincethe calculations above are based on limited available data, they should beregarded as indicating trends rather than giving precise guidance. They donot, for example, distinguish between surpluses located in major areas offorest industry and those in less accessible locations. There is an urgentneed for a plantation inventory which, with regular updating is essentialfor accurate planning and management. Firmer conclusions will then bepossible, indicative plans for forest industry development can be prepared,and current maintenance and felling plans can be updated.

Forest Managtement

4.09 The ban on harvesting in natural forests is likely to be followedby limited exploitation when Government has tightened control of thesituation (paras 1.15-1.16). In principle, these forests should be able tosustain carefully supervised logging of camphor, Meru oak, Maesopsis eminiiand other species important for the furniture and veneer industries. Ithas proved very difficult, however, to control even such limited use inKenya. It should not be taken up before ways to contain past abuses havebeen found, and the limited areas suitable have been identified carefully.

4.10 For harvesting exotic forests, future expansion of pulp millcapacity should be designed to use wood down to 8 cm. top diameter (theexisting chemical mill takes only 20 cm. and above). If the pulp mill isto expand on the present site, there would not be enough wood in theexisting pulpwood working circle to sustain expansion beyond 1995. Therewould therefore be a need to introduce intearated harvesting outside thepulpwood circle. The introduction of this form of harvesting is in factdesirable in principle, as it vould tend to maximize wood utilization. Thedemand and supply projections worked out in detail in Annex IV assume thatall wood from the pulpwood working circle, plus all wood below 20 cm. fromthe sawlog working circle, is classified as pulpwood. This is the mostpractical assumption for the period under review, although in other areasof the world integrated logging is applied throughout industrialplantantions (Annex IV, p. 21). Using this concept would imply consideringall material over 20 cm. diameter for sawlogs, and that below 20 cm. aspulpwood. This report recommends that, where feasible, cypress and pinestands in the pulpwood circle should be thinned and pruned for supply ofhigher quality sawlogs to sawmills and plywood mills in the vicinity. Somesuggestions about dealing with practical details are outlined in Annex IV,pp. 29-33.

4.11 Research needs for industrial plantations and forest industriesinclude the following prioritioss

- widening the range of species, especially fast-growing ones,and ensuring their genetic improvements;

- improving silvicultural techniques, particularlyestablishment and harvesting. In many respects appropriatetechniques are available. The function of research would be,

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in part, to demonstrate the proper use of appropriatetechnologies already available, and thus to Improveoperational standards;

- economic studies of ttulage routes and Industry scale;

- improving conversion and processing techniques.

Forest Department Finances

4.12 In the past 15 years, Forest Department expenditures have probablynot risen much in real terms, but in nominal terms have increased from KE 2million to around XI 14 million pa, while income has increased from 162 to34% of expenditures. Cost recovery targets have not been met, and withoutcorrection are likely to drop to 25S by 1990. The fact that personnelcosts take up 802 of the FD budget makes funds scarce for capitalinvestment, and curbs progress under donor assisted projects.

4.13 This report recommends that the Forest Department should Improvethe financial viability of its plantations, by taking the same steps aprivate commercial organization would need to take for managing theforests, namely: Increase royalties, continue to reduce labor and increasetheir producti$.ity. and explore possibilities for contract labor.

V. RESEARCH

5.01 The priorities for research have been outlined above, in relationto environmental concerns, tree growing on farms, wood based energyproduction and industrial forestry. This section describes theorganizations responsible for research, and outlines how they might berendered more effective. A more detailed analysis is provided in Annex V.Principal among the research organizations is the Kena Forest ResearchInstitute (KEFRI), formed in July, 1986 from the former Forest ResearchDepartment of the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI). It is nowplaced within the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MENR).Its origins go back, through different organizational arrangements, to1934. By the time of its separation from KARI it had a meagre budget, itsstaff were depleted and suffering from low morale, and Its equipment,housing and programs had been reduced almost to nothing. Its managementfaces the formidable task of reviving and restoring the Institute, andputting It back to effective work.

5.02 Important research with forestry concerns with which KEFRI shouldachieve close coordination are:

- KARLt it is proposed that the forthcoming donor supportedproject to strengthen KARI should include a component on agroforestry,linked with the six agroforestry centers of MOERD;

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MOERD's Regional Agroforestry Centerss the six centers arelocated in the following zones -- coastal (Mtwapa), arid/semi-arid (Kitui),central highlands (Wambugu), upland savannah (Ngong/Jamhuri), westernhighlands (Bukura) and Lake Basin (Kisii). The principal activities ofthese centers are species screening, seed production, demonstrations andtraining. They have a potential to extend farm forestry research, someuseful initiatives already being underway at Mtwapal

- NOOss these include on-farm work under the CARE-Kenya program,by the Greenbelt Movement and Baobab Farms, and the studies of theInternational Council for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), particularlythe detailed research on climateltree/soillcrop interactions just beginningat the latter's field station near Machakos;

- Other Agenciess other research related to trees is being doneby Nairobi University (basic work on vegetative propagation), ILCA(ecological surveys and range management), KREMU (surveys and land useassessments), ODA and Dutch assisted projects near Lake Baringo (range andwoodland rehabilitation and management trials), and EATEC (trials onintercropping maize with wattle).

In addition, it has been proposed under the ESMAP Woodfuel DevelopmentProject to post to each District a Forest Research Officer (Extension)(FROE) who would investigate and develop smallholder tree managementpractices. These should be linked closely to KEFRI's Social andAgroforestry Research Group.

5.03 There are three major concerns regarding the strengthening offorest research: developing REFRI into an innovative and dynamic center,establishing close coordination among the numerous organizations alreadyworking in the field, and improving the programs of those which havepotential for doing more or better work than they are doing at present.Considerations pertinent to the urgent need to restore the formereffectiveness of KEFRI are:

- firm commitment to fundint KEFRI: this may seem obvious, butthe effective contribution which research made to forest sector developmentin the 1950s and 1960s was allowed to waste away in later years, withobvious effects on sector performance, through a lack of such support;

- research should be focused on development objectives, withresearch managers involved in planning and implementing their programs inclose association with the operations they are supposed to support;

- revitalization should begin with clear definition of theprogram to be carried out; linkages with other organizations in research,and with extension and resource management; staff development plans;budgeted needs for facilities and equipment, approved by the Board ofManagement and the Minister;

- to existing regional research stations at Gede, Londiani, andTurbo should be added eventually stations for semi-arid areas, e.g. atKibwezi and in the Kakamega/Kisumu area;

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- the main components of the program should be Individualprojects, each with a designated leader, clear, attainable objectives andannual goals or work targets. Most studies would be carried out withinKEFRI, with some contracted out. Documentation for projects and studieswhich would Include budgets, would be reviewed by a Program Committee madeup of the Director, Deputy Director and disciplinary section heads (furtherdetails are in Annex V, pp. 28-32);

- salary increases for scientists should be based on performance,and special attention should be paid to other means of motivation,including adequate work resources (equipment, library, laboratory, fieldfacilities, technicians), interaction with peers, opportunities to presentresults at seminars and conferences, and study tours;

- research projects should be conducted within a well researchedsocioeconomic framework, and should relate to defined, agro-ecologicalxones of the country. The most detailed classification of these is givenin the several volumes of the Farm Management Handbook of Kenya, 1982,based on technical and economic surveys carried out with GTZ assistance,while a moro generalized stratification has recently been published by ODA;

- most staff members of KEFRI need graduate training, as well astraining in research method and experimental design and analysis, while themanagers and disciplinary section heads require training in researchprogram management. Such training may be provided most effectively throughtwinning arranaouents with other research institutes, augmented by someshort period technical assistance;

- estimates detailed in Annex V (Appendix 3) indicate that a fiveyear program for KEFRI (1987188 - 1991192) could cost a total of KSh 189million (US$ 11.8 million); this would be made up of KSh 84 million forsalaries of existing staff, KSh 38 million for operating expenses ofexisting staff and programs (a level of funding considerably greater thanthe present, inadequate level), and KSh 67 million (US$ 4.2 million)additional investment in facilities, equipment, training and salaries ofincremental staff.

5.04 As noted above, there are plans to have agroforestry researchprograms in both KEPRI and KARI. To maximize the effectiveness of these,the specialized inputs of each institute should be part of a single, sharedresearch project. In this research KEFRI should work on the treecom2onents and KARr on the atricultural crop components, includinginteractions between the tree and agricultural crops. KEFRI should alsocoordinate its work particularly closely with the forestry extensionservices. With respect to liaison with the Forest Department, it isspecifically proposed that the Assistant Chief Conservator (Administration,Services and Training) should be responsible to ensure that effectivearrangements are in place for channelling information from the forestryextension service to KEFRI. Two potential research networks would be ofparticular interest to forest research in Kenya -- ICRAF's attempts to forman Agroforestry Research Network for Africa (AFRENA), and IUFRO's proposalto develop ICFRE. In view of the needed redirection of research towardsagroforestry, KEFRI and KARI should develop the closest possiblecoordination.

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VI. TRAINING AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

6.01 Most higher level posts in the Forest Department are filled bygraduates from one or other of the country's two institutions providingtertiary instruction in forestry subjects--the Kenya Forestry College atLondiani and the Faculty of Forest Resources and Wildlife Management at MoiUniversity in Eldoret. There is a need to tie together more explicitly forplanning purposes the graduate output of these teaching institutions andthe staffing needs of the Forest Department. At present the latter hasposts for 127 graduates (of which 90 are filled), 546 diploma holders (ofwhich 258 are filled), and 127 certificate holders (there are 186 staffholding certificates, some of whom will go on to complete diplomas after aperiod of satisfactory job performance). The question of what should bethe number of persons emerging each year from the training institutionsremains to be clarified.

6.02 Londiani. Established in 1957, this college offers 2-yearCertificate and 3-year Diploma courses, the required qualifications forForest Assistants and Foresters, respectively, in the Forest Department.The college's 1987 intake was 103 students, selected from around 6,000applicants. Only 7% of trainees are women. More women will be needed infuture, especially for extension activities. Entry requires an "0" levelpass in mathematics and science subjects. Some 90X of the trainees jointhe Rural Afforestation Extension Service (RAE$) of the Forest Department.There are plans to double enrollment in the future, but there is somequestion whether the FD can absorb so many trainees. The college has a4,000 ha training forest (3,700 ha under exotic species) and nursery. Itlacks training facilities in semi-arid rangelands, however, and has poorphysical plant, training equipment, transport, teaching materials,workshops, library facilities, and housing. A special need is for a farmforestry textbook. Some of these constraints would be addressed under aproposed GTZ-financled project. A semi-arid outstation at Isiolo, possiblyfinanced by ODA, is under consii-,Bration.

6.03 The college has 19 staff, of whom 5 have degrees, and the rest areDiploma or Certificate holders. It is expected that staff will beIncreased in number to 25-30, but there are no specific plans to meetneeds. Staff lack qualifications in subjects of importance, and receive notraining. They are on fixed-term appointments, are rotated out without anyapparent reason, and lack financial incentives. The teacher/student ratio,currently 1:16, needs to be raised to 1slO. The curriculum is orientedtowards industrial forestry, including silviculture, surveying, forestprotection, engineering, measurement, wood use and administration. Withthe likely future path of tree growing in the country in mind, thecurriculum should be revised to emphasize trees on farms, management of dryrangelands, and natural resource conservation. More field training andpractical work are also needed. It is proposed that a project under GTZfinancing would address some of these matters.

6.04 Moi University. The Paculty in forest related subjects was startedin 1984, growing out of the former Department of Forestry at NairobiUniversity, which had been initiated in 1977. Graduates obtain a 3-yearB.Sc. in forestry, which qualifies them to be Assistant District Forest

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Officers in the Forest Department. There is a plan to introduce a 2-yearM.Sc. program in 1987, and a Ph.D. program later, when there are enoughstudents and the proper staff. The current annual intake is 34 (29 men and5 women), with an entry requirement of "Al level passes in mathematics andscience subjects. The Faculty has a 1,200 ha farm, is developing anursery, and is negotiating with the Ministry of Environment and NaturalResources (MENR) to use a 500 ha indigenous forest at Trans-Mara as atraining and research center. A dryland station is also being planned atMarigat in Baringo District. The university campus is being enlarged toprovide laboratories, library, classrooms, offices and social amenities.There is still a lack of books and training equipment, but budgets havebeen approved, and transport is adequate.

6.05 At present the Faculty has 5 academic staff (two of whom areKenyan) and is planning to have 12 by 1990. The teacher/student ratio willimprove from 1:16 to 1X10. It was also planned that the syllabus would berevised during the 1986/1987 year in such a way as to de-emphasize itsalmost exclusive concern with industrial forestry and management ofplantations. The proposed station at Marigat will provide training in farmforestry and management of arid and semi-arid lands. M.Sc. specialtieswill include forest soils, silviculture, tree breeding, wood science,forest pathology and wildlife management. Research is weak in all fieldsrelating to forestry. While most of the graduates at the Bachelor levelwill join the FD, some 101 are likely to remain to build up the Faculty,and another 101 join other agencies, including NGCs. The Intake does notyet correspond to FD opportunities, and needs to be better planned withthese in mind. More attention is needed to attracting women anplicants.

6.06 It has been proposed that career development in the ForestDepartment should provide for specialization of staff, in both theprofessional and technical cadres, in either farm or social forestry(including development of extension skills) on the one hand, or inenvironmental and industrial forestry on the other. If lmplemented thisproposal would require each student in the college diploma and universitydegree courses to indicate their preference for specialized training (forat least part of the time) during the final year. Since the career path ofevery member of staff should lead to the highest position in his/her cadre,it will be important to arrange curricula so that an individual'sprogression is not prejudiced by over-specialized initial training.

Recommendations Regarding Education and Trainina

6.07 To address problems mentioned in the above overview, and toaccomodate a new emphasis on tree growing on farms, the following actionsare recommendeds

- include more farm forestry, conservation and natural forestmanagement in the syllabuses at Londiani and Moi, as well as in primary andsecondary schools, and teacher colleges (specific curriculum changes wouldneed to be studied in the context of Government education policy);

- coordinate the use of field stations between the twoinstitutions, and emphasize field activities in the arid and semi-aridlands;

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- extend practical field work to 6 months for graduates;

- introduce graduate specializations in the 3rd. year at Noi,extend the B.Sc. degree to four years, Introduce postgraduate degrees atMoi up to Ph.D. level, and include farm forestry as a specialty;

- in the Certificate and Diploma programs at Londiani introducespecializations in farm forestry, traditional forestry, and environment atlater stages of courses of study;

- improve teaching staff at both institutions;

- provide the necessary in-service training to re-orient stafftowards farm forestry in the RAES, MOA and MOERDI

- improve training and publicity materials, including manuals,pamphlets, posters, slide packages, films, and programs for radio and TV;

- conduct public awareness campaigns about tree growing on farms,and conservation matters, through school newsletters, club magaaines,environmental comics, wildlife clubs, woments groups, church groups,farmers' associations, and the media, including theatre.

The Forest Department

6.08 Many of the problems in Kenya's forests have been made moredifficult by the the fact that the Forest Department has not been givenenough political support. With the best of will some problems havenevertheless been beyond its powers to solve, and where it has operatedunder such constraints its performance has been as good as could beexpected. It is therefore a major priority that the FD should be empoweredto do more about the problems it is asked to address. Since the FD is theorganization directly responsible for the development of forestry programsin Kenya, its structure is described, and wide ranging proposals for itsreorganization, strengthening and development are appended in Annex VI.These are summarized here. The FD, reporting through the Chief Conservatorof Forests to the Permanent Secretary of its parent Ministry (MENR), isorganized to provide a broad base of headquarters management. In practice,however, this has been narrowed by leaving positions unfilled (the FD hasabout 3,200 approved professional and technical positions, of which lassthan half are filled), by coordination problems, and creation of new unitsto perform new tasks that should be integrated into existing programs. Thetime is ripe for a re-assessment of all headquarters tasks, with a view toorganizing them more'efficiently.

6.09 A special personnel problem in the FD is posed by its beingburdened with an oversized, inefficient plantation labor force. Thehistorical background to this problem is described in Annex VI. The FD hasnot been empowered to deal with this problem adequately, with the resultthat the FD's plantation development, management and protection costs areextremely and unduly high. Personnel costs, now totalling X£ 5.5 millionper year, take up 702 of the FD's plantation development budget. Between1975/76 and 1981182, expenditures on salaries for plantation developmentincreased by 660X, while the annual rate of plantatioi. establishment rose

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by only 402. The labor force is more than double the size it needs to be,is not supervised adequately, and lacks performance incentives; itsproductivity is low. The problem cannot be solved simply. Nevertheless itis of major importance. It should be analyzed carefully, and corrected, inthe country's interest, patiently but with high priority. Establishingsome laborers in smallholder woodfuel production in forest reserves (para.3.17) could be part of the solution.

Recommendations for Orsanization and Functioning of the Forest Department

6.10 Following is a consolidated summary of recommendations made invarious places throughout this reports

- leuislation: enact an extension of FD authority as necessaryover forested lands, produce an up-to-date statement of Government ForestPolicy, and up-date the Forest Act and the Chiefs' Act as it relates tofoiestryl

- managments assign routine tasks now done by the ChiefConservator of Forests to three ACCFs, of equal rank, dealing withAdministrative Services and Training, Development, and Extension andConservation (the latter would head the RAES); provide manatement traininato managers and supervisors throughout the Department; and inform allmembers of Forest Department staff, in terms appropriate to their variouslevels, of the mandate, objectives and programs of the organization andtheir roles and responsibilities within it;

- re-organizations establish Monitorinx and Evaluation andWoodfuel Management Units, strengthen the Accounting Office, EconomicSection, and the Manatement Support Unit;

- personnel developments establish two career streams, adding onefor extension to that already existing for conventional forestry; prepareposition descriptions for all technical, managerial, supervisory and lawenforcement positions in the FD; and ensure close working relations betweenKEFRI and the FD;

VII. FIVE YEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

7.01 As an indicative exercise, to suggest the order of magnitude of adevelopment program incorporating the elements outlined throughout thisreport, preliminary estimates have been made of costs involved, and theresults reported in Tables 1 and 2. These estimates should be regarded asa starting point for more detailed and accurate planning. They suggest atotal cost, to be added to the 1989-1993 Development Plan, of around KSh742 million (US$ 46 million), of which woodfuel development would take upabout 20%, and maintenance of industrial plantations 39%. The ForestDepartment share of the total would be about KSh 515 million. Thiscompares with the current budget for forestry development which is aboutKSh 60 million per annum in recurrent expenditure, and KSh 320 million indevelopment expenditure for the 1987/88 fiscal year. The suggested programwould be, on average, 27% higher per year than that for the current year.A synopsis of actions recommended, and their timing, is given in Table 3.

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Table 1Indicative Costs of Proposed Five YearForest Development Proaram: 1989-1993

(in 1986 terms)

Responsible Likely CostAsency KSh million

A. Natural Forests protection, managementand exploitation control FD 105 1/

Natural Forests inventory 13 2/Sub-total, Natural Forests 118

B. Farm Forestry (in addition to coverage in C below)Extension services development FD 42

and delivery MOA 42MOERD 11

Sub-total. Farm Forestry 95 3/

C. Woodfuel DevelopmentInstitutional Development FD 22Research KEFRI 7

Others 2Training FD 12Woodlots development

ED land (pilot) PD 5Private sector (promotion) FD 8

Farm forestry extension (woodfuels) FD, MOA, MOERD 40Consumption surveys, monitoring

and biomass inventory MOERD 49Sub-total, Woodfuel Development 145 4/

D. Industrial PlantationsInventory 14 5/Tending and renewal of plantations 232 6/Institutional development 44 7/

Sut-total, Industrial Plantations 290

E. ResearchKEFRI (excl. portion attributed to woodfuel) 60 8/Other institutions 34 91

94

TOTAL KSH 742 millionor US$ 46.4 million

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Notes:

1/ Equivalent of 40 Forest Reserves for 5 years (Annex VI, Appendix 3).

2t 0.8 million ha @ $1/ha (based on estimates for comparable inventory inUganda).

3/ ESMAP estimates assume fuelwood development project extension wouldaccount for 30X of the overall farm forestry extension costs. Theremaining 702 (KSh 95 million) is assumed here to be attributable toother agroforestry, and is divided notionally among the three likelyparticipants, namely RAES, MOA, and MOERD's 6 agroforestry centres.

4/ ESMAP estimates (in 1986 terms i.e. without contingencies).

5/ Based on Uganda figures for ODA plantation inventorys $5 or KSh 80/ha.Assume all the plantations (165,000 ha) are covered in the 5-yearperiod.

6/ Notionals say 8,000 ha replanted @ KSh 9,000/ha and 80,000 ha oftending, thinning and pruning @ KSh 2,000/ha.

71 Notionals 2 X FD headquarters institutional development costs.

8/ Estimate for strengthening KEFRI from Annex V (net of salaries andoperating costs of existing staff), less amount included for researchunder C. Woodfuel Development.

9/ Notional.

Table 2Five Year Proaram By Components (KSh million)

Component A B C D E Totals USSm

Investment a/ 30 20 22 80 52 204 12.7Salaries b/ 58 14 28 )192 19 )413 25.8Operating Expenses 17 25 49 ) 11 )Training - 16 19 - 9 44 2.8Technical Assistance - 20 27 4 3 54 3.4Forest Inventories 13 - - 14 - 27 1.7

Totals 118 95 145 290 94 742 46.4(US$ million) (7.4) (5.9) (9.1) (18.1) (5.9) (46.4)

a/ Buildings, vehicles, equipmentb/ Incremental staff

-rAF8ESREl SUBSF-T1OR

Table 8. ACTs

£gmkaook Action NeedId Suams Ti..T Perigd A_elies R_semmeihle

A. Forest retectlgon 1. Mm statemt of Forest polIcy 1068 fD2. Gaztte vulnerable forests 1988 Legislation3. Halt enroach.snt and Illegal cutting l118-09 FD4. Prepare ntional forest inventory 198863 FD5. Prepare foret management plans 1989-9 FD6. Research on natural forests, catch_ent studies 19688-2 FD, KREIW, IEFRI

B. E.N Fostr 1. Ioplemet Extenion Pilot operations 1987-98 RAES, MCA2. Survey available technical knowledge 1968 RAES3. Upgrade career stream for Extension tn FD 1088 FD4. Train RAES special lets 1688-8 FD5. Chan *yllabs at Lodini n Not 1968-U Loodiani, MoD6. Study tree product mrkts incentives and credit 1088-91 FD Ecoesmi. Section7. Stud phaing out of seeling subidies an

encuras on-form nurseries 1989-3 FD8. Consolidate extension services through RAES/10A

coordination 1969-93 RAS9. Reserch on tree rowing for forms 19S8-200 KEFRI, KARI

C. Woodful Develosmant 1. Establish Woodfuel Managomnt Unit 19S8 FD2. Establish pilot smallboldor woodlots 1068-91 FD 03. Study woodfuel markets, Incentives and policies 1986-40 FD Economic Section, MOERM4. Biosmss inventories 1968-03 OERDS. Raise price of fueolood from FD planations 1989-93 FD6. Introduce pro motonal package for private

sector woodful- production 1980-93 FD7. Phase out s_bidies for agro-industrial user 1989-93 FD8. Decontrol charcoel price 1069-9a Legislation9. Research on tree growing for woodf els 19BB-2M _EPRI, KARI

D. Industrial Forstwr 1. Reduce plantation labor force 1987-OS FD2. Raise royalties nd FITC price 1987-93 FD3. Inventory of plantaions ( Iready started) 1968-S1 FD4. Introduce Integrated harvestIng in industrial

plantation (already started in two Districts) 1988-93 FDS. Studies of haulag routes ond Industry scale 1989-01 FD Econ oie Section6. Improve convorsion and processing technique 1969-03 FD, mils7. Research on tree groing for industrlal use 198B-200 #EFII

E. Institutional Develomment 1. Establish 3 ACCF positions Done already FD2. Strongthbn Inventory and Manaeement Plans

Sections 1068 FD3. Uptrade career stream for Extension 1988 FD4. Establlsh Monitoring and Evaluation Unit 1988-90 FD5. Strongthen Accounting Office and Economic

Section 1968-96 FD8. Position descriptions, all professional staff 1988-91 FD7. Training 1988-93 FD, KEFRI UOERD

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