Report 13 – March 2018 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls · Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 3 POVERTY:

Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls (December 2017 data)

Patrick Vinck | Phuong Pham | Anupah Makoond

CONTENT p3. POVERTY: Dissatisfaction with access to

basic services and needs is growing and associated with the perception of government authorities.

p5. GOVERNANCE: Few people think that the

authorities (at all levels) represent the interests of the population.

p8. GOVERNANCE: Perceptions of government

efforts in key areas of peacebuilding and reconstruction are rarely positive and deteriorating.

p11. GOVERNANCE: The feeling of being able to

influence decisions and contribute to peace is frequent but unequal among women and men.

p13. KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS

Report 13 – March 2018

About the polls

This poll is the thirteenth in a series of quarterly polls conducted to provide reliable data and analysis on peace, security, justice and reconstruction in the Democratic

Republic of the Congo. The project is a joint initiative of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in

collaboration with MONUSCO Civil Affairs. HHI is responsible for the data collection, the independent data analysis and report writing, in partnership with the

Université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs, Université Catholique de Bukavu et Université de Bunia. Results for this poll are based on 5, 834 face‐to‐face interviews

conducted in December 2017 with randomly selected adults across eastern DRC. Additional interviews were conducted in six priority zones: 1 ‐ South Irumu

(n=435); 2 ‐ Kitchanga (n=791); 3 ‐ Ruzizi (n= 428); 4 ‐ Kalehe (n=420); 5 ‐ Mambasa (n=421); Beni (n=479)

North Kivu South Kivu Ituri

Territoire/Town Sample Territoire/Town Sample Territoire/Town Sample

Ville de Goma 221 Ville de Bukavu 300 Ville de Bunia 290 Ville de Beni 300 Fizi 216 Aru 218 Ville de Butembo 299 Idjwi 216 Djugu 216 Beni 215 Kabare 216 Irumu 220 Lubero 216 Kalehe 236 Mahagi 216 Masisi 217 Mwenga 216 Mambasa 216 Nyiragongo 220 Shabunda 216 Rutshuru 224 Ville d’Uvira 302 TOTAL 1,376

Walikale 196 Uvira 217 TOTAL 2,108 Walungu 215

TOTAL 2,350

TOTAL Eastern DRC 5,834 (Error margin of ± 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level).

Publications:

Poll Report # 12 [Goma], November 2017 (Data from Oct 2017)

Poll Report # 11, [Security], September 2017 (Data from July 2017)

Poll Report # 10, June 2017 (Data from March April 2017)

Poll Report # 9, March 2017 (Data from Dec 2016)

Poll Report # 8, November 2016 (Data from Sept 2016)

Poll Report # 7, August 2016 (Data from June 2016)

Poll Report #6, June 2016 (Data from March 2016) Poll Report #5, January 2016 (Data from Dec 2015)

Poll Report #4, November 2015 (Data from Sept ‐ Oct 2015)

Poll Report #3, August 2015 (Data from June‐July 2015)

Poll Report #2, June 2015 (Data from March‐May 2015)

Poll Report #1, March 2015 (Data from Dec 2014)

Baseline, May 2014 (Data from Dec 2013)

For more information, visit www.peacebuildingdata.org/drc or contact [email protected]

In collaboration with

With support from

© Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Program The information provided, and views expressed in this publication

do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners

Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 3

POVERTY: Dissatisfaction with access to basic services and needs is growing and associated with the perception of government authorities.

The polls regularly collect data on respondents' satisfaction with basic services and needs ‐ access to health

care, school for children, water, food, land, opportunities to find work and housing. The results show a growing

dissatisfaction in all areas between December 2015 and December 2017, with a more significant decrease in

satisfaction in the year 2017. This decline coincides with a period of rapid inflation, linked to the depreciation

of the Congolese franc against the dollar. It is likely that reduced purchasing power contributed to the decline

in satisfaction with basic services and needs.

The downward trend is general in all provinces. However, the perception of access to basic services and needs

remains more positive in Ituri compared to the other provinces. Conversely, dissatisfaction is most common in

South Kivu. For example, 26% of respondents are satisfied with their access to health care in Ituri, compared to

20% in North Kivu and 7% in South Kivu. Regarding access to water, only 1% of respondents interviewed in

Shabunda and 4% in Fizi said they had good or very good access in the December 2017 survey. The average

percentage for South Kivu is 17% of people satisfied with their access to water, compared to 30% in North Kivu

and 38% in Ituri.

It is possible that dissatisfaction with basic services is associated with dissatisfaction with the representation of

public interest by government authorities at all levels. For example, among those who feel that their access to

water is very poor, only 19% are positive about the representation of their interests by provincial authorities.

This percentage is 32% among people who are very satisfied with their access to water. In terms of health care,

among those who think their access to health care is very poor, only 11% are positive about the representation

of their interests by provincial authorities, compared to 34% of those who judge their access to care health as

being very good.


Figure: Access to services and basic needs

Dec. 2015 ‐ Dec 2017 (% good ‐ very good)

Access to

health care

Access to

school for

children

Access to

land

Access to

food

Access to

water

Housing

Opportunity

to find work

NK, 20%

SK, 7%

IT, 26%26% 27% 28%

24% 26% 26% 25%

Eastern DRC, 17%

NK, 14%SK, 8%

IT, 28%

23% 24% 26% 23% 26% 26% 26%Eastern DRC, 16%

NK, 16%SK, 24%

IT, 42%

33% 34% 34% 32% 32% 31% 31% Eastern DRC, 25%

NK, 18%

SK, 6%

IT, 29%29% 30%

26% 24% 25% 26% 25%

Eastern DRC, 17%

NK, 30%

SK, 17%

IT, 38%38% 41%

37%31% 32% 33% 34%

Eastern DRC, 28%

NK, 30%

SK, 14%

IT, 36%36% 38% 35%

29% 32% 34% 34%

Eastern DRC, 26%

NK, 6%SK, 1%

IT, 15%

9% 8% 7% 6% 8% 9% 9%Eastern DRC, 7%

Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16 Mar‐17 Jul‐17 Dec‐17


GOVERNANCE: Few people think that the authorities (at all levels)

represent the interests of the population.

Restoring a relationship of trust between the population and the governmental authorities that must serve

them is an essential component of peacebuilding. The polls conducted in the eastern part of the Democratic

Republic of Congo include questions to better understand how the population perceives these authorities.

Results of the December 2017 survey show that only one in four (27%) people in North and South Kivu and Ituri

consider local authorities ‐ village chiefs or neighborhood leaders ‐ to be good or very good at representing the

interests of the people. There are variations between provinces. The perception of the representation of the

interests of the population by local authorities is more frequently positive in Ituri (43%) than in North Kivu (21%)

and South Kivu (21%). At the level of the territories, it is in Butembo (8%) and in the territory of Idjwi (8%) that

the percentage is the lowest. It is much higher in Djugu in Ituri (63%), which probably reflects the individual

characteristics of the local authorities.

Figure: Perception of the representation of the interests of the population

by local authorities – chefs de quartiers / villages (% well ‐ very well)

Mambasa18%

Fizi25%

Walikale36%

Shabunda27%

Lubero18%

Beni18%

Aru44%

Djugu63%

Irumu34%

Mwenga31%

Kalehe27%

Masisi29%

Uvira10%

Mahagi26%

Rutshuru20%

Kabare20%

Walungu27%

Idjwi8%

Nyiragongo32%

Ville de Beni11%

Ville de Butembo8%

Ville de Bunia37%

Uvira Ville10%

Ville de Bukavu13%

Ville de Goma14%

IT – 43%

NK – 21%

SK – 21%

27%


The percentage of respondents considering that local authorities represent the interests of the population well

or very well is low (27%) across the region. However, it is markedly higher than the percentage of respondents

who believe that territorial, provincial or national authorities represent the interests of the population well or

very well. In all three provinces, only 15% of those interviewed consider that the Territorial Administration or

the Mairie (in the city) represent the interests of the population well or very well. The percentage is 8% for the

provincial government and 7% for the central government. Part of this trend can be explained by the fact that

the higher hierarchical authorities are also more distant from the population. This can result in less visibility and

fewer interactions. Local authorities generally live among the population and have regular interactions. This is

not the case for the Mayor or the Territory Administrator, and even less so for the provincial and national

authorities. Provincial trends are the same as for local authorities, with a higher percentage of people in Ituri

judging positively the representation of their interests by all levels of authorities compared to the other

provinces.

Figure: Perception of the representation of the interests of the population

by territorial, provincial and national authorities (% well ‐ very well)

Eastern DRC

Territorial

administration /

Mayor office

Provincial

government

National

government

December 2017 data

A gender analysis shows that women consider that the authorities represent the interests of the population in

positive terms more often than men for all levels of authorities examined in the survey. For example, for all

three provinces, 31% of women feel that local authorities represent the interests of the population well or very

well, compared to only 23% of men. It is possible that these differences based on gender represent different

expectations between men and women regarding the actions of authorities.

15%NK13%

SK10%

IT26%

8%NK3%

SK1%

IT22%

7%NK4%

SK1%

IT19%


Figure : Perception de la représentation des intérêts de la population

par les autorités (tous niveaux), par genre (% bien – très bien)

Local authorities – chefs de quartiers / villages Territorial administration / Mayor office

Women Men Women Men

Provincial government National government

Women Men Women Men

December 2017 data

31% 23% 17% 14%

10% 5% 9% 5%


GOVERNANCE: Perceptions of government efforts in key areas of

peacebuilding and reconstruction are rarely positive and

deteriorating.

Depuis Mars 2016, les sondages incluent des questions demandant aux répondants d’évaluer la performance

du gouvernement national dans plusieurs domaines tels qu’établir la paix à l’est du pays, réduire la pauvreté,

créer de l’emploi, lutter contre la corruption, parmi d’autres. L’analyse des résultats de décembre 2017 montre

que les efforts en matière de lutte contre les violences sexuelles et d’unification des différents groupes

ethniques sont perçu positivement plus fréquemment que les autres domaines. Néanmoins, seulement 17%

des personnes interrogées jugent positivement les efforts de lutte contre les violences sexuelles, et 15% jugent

positivement les efforts d’unification. C’est sur les questions économiques et de gouvernance que le

gouvernement est jugé le plus sévèrement : seulement 7% jugent positivent les efforts pour réduire la

pauvreté ; le même pourcentage (7%) jugent positivement les efforts de lutte contre la corruption, et 8% sont

positif envers les efforts pour créer de l’emploi. En général, le niveau de satisfaction est le plus élevé en Ituri.

Figure : Perception des efforts du gouvernement national

(% bon – très bon)

Bring peace

to Eastern

Congo

Unite different

ethnic groups

Reduce

poverty

Improve the lives

of Congolese

people

Create

employment

Ensure security

Fight against

corruption

Fight against

sexual violence

December 2017 data

Analysis of the data collected between March 2016 and December 2017 shows a decrease in the percentage of

people who rate the government's performance positively in all areas explored and across the three provinces.

In the province of Ituri, in all the eight areas included in the survey, there is a sudden and very pronounced

decrease between March and July 2017.

7% 3%

32%

12% 9% 7%

33%

15%

3% 0%

22%

7%3% 1%

22%

7%

5%0%

22%

8% 7%2%

30%

11%

3% 1%

21%

7%16%

7%

31%

17%

NK SK IT EasternDRC

NK SK IT EasternDRC


Perception of the national government’s efforts

between March 2016 and December 2017 (% good ‐ very good)

Bring peace to Eastern

Congo

Reduce poverty

Create employment

Fight against corruption

Unite different ethnic

groups

Improve the lives of

Congolese people

Ensure security

Fight against sexual

violence

NK, 7% SK, 3%

IT, 32%

29%23%

19% 17% 20%16% Eastern DRC, 12%

NK, 3% SK, 0%

IT, 22%

14%9% 8% 8% 11% 8%

Eastern DRC, 7%

NK, 5% SK, 0%

IT, 22%

13%9% 8% 8% 10% 8%

Eastern DRC, 8%

NK, 3% SK, 1%

IT, 21%

14%9% 9% 8% 11%

8%Eastern DRC, 7%

NK, 9%SK, 7%

IT, 33%

28%22% 22% 20%

23%18% Eastern DRC, 15%

NK, 3%SK, 1%

IT, 22%

14%11% 10% 9% 11%

7%Eastern DRC, 7%

NK, 7%

SK, 2%

IT, 30%29%

23% 20% 19% 21%14% Eastern DRC, 11%

NK, 16%

SK, 7%

IT, 31%40% 38%

33% 32%36%

24% Eastern DRC, 17%

Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16 Mar‐17 Jul‐17 Dec‐17


The negative trend in the perception of government efforts in the different areas explored mirrors a similar

trend in terms of satisfaction with access to basic services and needs. Both variables are associated, and it is

possible that a deterioration in access to basic services and needs results in a loss of confidence in government

efforts.


GOVERNANCE: The feeling of being able to influence decisions

and contribute to peace is frequent but unequal among women

and men.

Le sondage de décembre 2017 explorait le regard que la population porte sur elle‐même et sa capacité à

apporter des changements positifs dans la communauté. Les résultats montrent que les Congolais vivant à l’Est

de la République Démocratique du Congo demeurent optimistes en ce qui concerne la capacité des gens

ordinaires à contribuer à la paix dans leurs quartiers ou villages. Sur l’ensemble des trois provinces, plus de deux

personnes sur trois (67%) estiment que les gens, comme eux, ont la capacité d’apporter un changement au

village ou quartier, et 61% jugent qu’il soit possible de participer aux décisions qui affectent le quartier ou

village. Un pourcentage similaire (67%) pense que les gens ont la capacité de contribuer à la paix dans le quartier

ou village.

Figure : Capacité d’influencer et contribuer aux décisions et à la paix (% oui)

Capacity to bring

changes to the

village/quartier

(% yes)

Possible to participate in

decisions that affect the

village/quartier (% yes)

Capacity to bring

changes to the

village/quartier

(% yes)

Women Men

December 2017 data

63%74%

64% 67%

56% 77%

56%66% 64% 61%

51% 72%

63%75%

64% 67%

57% 77%

NK SK IT EasternDRC


In general, the population is more frequently positive about its ability to influence decisions and bring about

change in their communities in South Kivu province. At the level of the territories, people who believe that

people can bring positive change to the neighborhood / village are less frequent in Lubero (57%), Nyirangongo

(51%) and Rutshuru (51%) in North Kivu; in the territory of Uvira (55%) in South Kivu, and in the City of Bunia

(56%) and Mahagi (52%) in Ituri. More than four out of five people think that ordinary people have the capacity

to bring positive change to the neighborhood or village: Beni City (80%), Masisi (89%) and Walungu (95%).

For each question, there is a significant difference between women and men. On average, there is a gap of 20%

between men and women responding that it is possible to bring positive change, participate in decisions or

contribute to peace in the neighborhood. The fact that women have responded less frequently that they can

make a change to the neighborhood or that people can contribute to neighborhood decisions and peace may

be explained by their lower level of education ‐ People with a higher level of education are more frequently

optimistic about the ability of the population to make a change or influence decisions at the neighborhood level.

However, the difference between gender also reflects more systemic gender inequalities in the attitudes,

customs and traditions of the region.


KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS (December 2017)

The following indicators are monitored in all the polls. Provincial averages may mask significant differences

between territories ‐ detailed results by territories are available on the www.peacebuildingdata.org site.

Aggregate statistics are based on the latest poll available in each territory.

SENSE OF SECURITY (% safe – very safe)

Latest data (December 2017)

Regional Trends (Total NK, SK, Ituri)

PERCEPTION OF SECURITY ACTORS (% trust for security)



53%62%

80%63%

27%38%

59%

39%

NK SK IT TOT.

Daily activities Walking alone at night

67% 70% 72% 76% 76% 75%69% 71% 73% 68% 63%

44% 46% 51% 53% 54% 52% 49% 53% 55%45%

39%

Dec.2013

Jun.2015

Sep.2015

Dec.2015

Mar.2016

Jun.2016

Sep.2016

Dec.2016

Mar.2017

Jul.2017

Dec.2017

Daily activities Walking alone at night

47% 47% 51% 48%41%55%

42% 46%

24% 19% 11%19%

NK SK IT TOT.

Police FARDC MONUSCO

61%51% 54% 54% 51% 48% 47%

33%

42%54%

48%

53% 49% 49% 50% 51% 49%42%

42%

45%50% 46%

25% 26% 24% 24% 25% 23% 20% 18% 23% 23% 19%

Dec.2013

Jun.2015

Sep.2015

Dec.2015

Mar.2016

Jun.2016

Sep.2016

Dec.2016

Mar.2017

Jul.2017

Dec.2017

Police FARDC MONUSCO


PERCEPTION OF RELATIONS WITHIN AND ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS (% GOOD – VERY GOOD)



CONFIANCE EN LA JUSTICE (% peu– aucune)



68% 64%77%

69%60% 58%

76%63%

NK SK IT TOT.

Relations within group Relations across groups

89%81% 82% 82% 80% 77% 71% 71% 75% 73% 69%

79% 74% 77% 77% 76% 73%64% 59%

70% 65% 63%

Dec.2013

Jun.2015

Sep.2015

Dec.2015

Mar.2016

Jun.2016

Sep.2016

Dec.2016

Mar.2017

Jul.2017

Dec.2017

Relations within group Relations across groups

70%81%

65% 73%69% 76%66% 71%

NK SK IT TOT.

Civilian justice system Military justice system

65%

75% 75%

72%

71% 70% 71% 71%73%

67%

73%

69%75% 75%

73%

69%67%

71% 71% 73%

67%71%

Dec.2013

Jun.2015

Sep.2015

Dec.2015

Mar.2016

Jun.2016

Sep.2016

Dec.2016

Mar.2017

Jul.2017

Dec.2017

Civilian justice system Military justice system

Documents

Report 13 – March 2018 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls · Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 3 POVERTY: