Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
R ental and O wner-O ccupied H ousing Demand, 2010-2030
"Cairo Apartment Building - W ashington, D.C." by AgnosticPreachersK id - O wn work. Licensed under CC B Y-SA 3.0 via Commons -https:/ / commons.wikimedia.org/ wiki/ File:Cairo_Apartment_B uilding_-_W ashington,_D.C..JPG
Rolf PendallUrban Institute
Middle-class housing on Grove Avenue: https:/ / en.m.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ West_Hill,_Albany,_New_York#/ media/ File%3AAlbany_Houses.jpg UpstateNYer • CC BY-SA 3.0
Presentation outline
A few orientation slides: Demographic changes driving housing demand
A long look back: H eadship and homeownership since the early 1900s
Future homeownership and headship: H ow our growing, aging, diverse population will fuel substantial demand for housing, especially rentals
Population, 2014-60: Despite 16 million fewer whites, all other groups fuel increase of 100 million
White
H ispanic
Black
Asian
Two or more
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2014 2024 2034 2044 2054
Mill
ions
*
**
Source: U.S. Census 2014 National Population Projections* Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander** American Indian or Alaska Native
O ver 80 M illion Seniors in 2040
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015 2020 2030 2040
Mill
ions
65+45-6415-44<15
Source: U.S. Census 2014 National Population Projections
A young, diverse population will spur continued household growth—especially rental housing
5
Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute Projections (p), average series. Other race includes Asians and Pacific Islanders, American Indians and Alaska Natives, people of other races, and people of two or more races.
0102030405060708090
1990
2000
2010
2020
(p)
2030
(p)
1990
2000
2010
2020
(p)
2030
(p)
Renters Owners
Hou
seho
lds
(mill
ions
)
Other raceHispanicBlackWhite
Translating population to housing
• Every occupied housing unit has a household in it
• Every household has a householder: The person whose name is on the lease or mortgage
• Headship rate: The number of householders per person, usually expressed for age-specific groups
6
Osbornb, Housemates, Santa Barbara, 1603 de la Vina Street, 1974.
A long look back: H ousehold formation & homeownership
since the early 1900s
7
For most age groups, headship peaked about 1980
8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
30–34
25–29
20–24
Sources: Decennial Censuses 1930–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
O ldest seniors have been gaining steadily in headship
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
75-8485+
Sources: Decennial Censuses 1930–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
H omeownership rate: Two eras since 1900
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Sources: Decennial Censuses 1900–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
H omeownership also peaked in 1980 for <55
11
25–29
30–34
35–3940–4445–54
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020Sources: Decennial Censuses 1900–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
Senior homeownership may be starting to peak
12
55–64 65–74
75+
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Sources: Decennial Censuses 1900–2000 and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
100 Y ears of H omeownership Transitions
13
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
25 35 45 55 65 75 85
Hom
eow
ners
hip
Age
1885189519051915192519351945195519651975
Birth year
Sources: Decennial Censuses 1900–2000, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
1910192019301940195019601970198019902000
Looking Ahead: Demographic Change and H ousing Demand
14
H eadship and homeownership are like a race
15
By U.S. Army (Flickr : 2010 Army Ten Miler Start) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons, https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3d/2010_Army_Ten_Miler_Start.jpg
Y oung Adults Dominate H eadship Transitions
16
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
%-p
oint
cha
nge
in c
ohor
t hea
dshi
p
Decade
15-1920-2425-29
Age at beginning of
decade
Sources: Decennial Censuses 1960–2000 and American Community Survey 2010, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
Projecting H eadship: Picking Past Transition Rates
17
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
%-p
oint
cha
nge
in c
ohor
t hea
dshi
p ra
te
1990-20002000-10Average
White non-Hispanic decennial transition rates, 1990-2010
Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010.
Projecting H eadship: Future transition rates
18
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
%-p
oint
cha
nge
in c
ohor
t hea
dshi
p ra
te
SlowFast
White non-Hispanic decennial transition rates, projections
Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections
Projecting H omeownership: Future transition rates
19
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
%-p
oint
cha
nge
in c
ohor
t ho
meo
wne
rshi
p ra
te
SlowFast
White non-Hispanic decennial transition rates, projections
Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections
W hites have early homeownership advantage
20
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
%-p
oint
cha
nge
in c
ohor
t ho
meo
wne
rshi
p ra
te
WhiteBlackHispanicOther
Fast scenario, decennial transition rates, projections
Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections
Setting the starting point: Finding 2013 cohort rates
21
Source: American Community Survey 2010 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek. 2010. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.
15-24
25-3435-44
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013
18-27
28-3738-47
White non-Hispanic headship rates, 2010-13 ACS
Setting the starting point: Adjusting ACS to Census
22
66%65%
60%
65%
70%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Ove
rall
hom
eow
ners
hip
rate
Decennial Census ACS HVS
Sources: Decennial Censuses, H ousing V acancy Survey, and American Community Survey.
Projecting H omeownership: Transitions 2013-2030
23
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
15-24 25-34 15-24 25-34 15-24 25-34 15-24 25-34
White Black Hispanic Other
Hom
eow
ners
hip
2010 2020 2030
Age in 2010
Average of fast and slow scenarios
Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections
Adding it up: H ouseholds by race & age, 2010-30
24
0102030405060708090
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
2010 2020 2030
Mill
ions
65+
45-64
<45
Average of fast and slow scenarios
Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections
Change in households by race and age, 2010-2030
25
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
2010s 2020s
Mill
ions
65+45-64<45Total
Average of fast and slow scenarios
Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections
H omeowners by race and age, 2010-2030
26
010203040506070
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
2010 2020 2030
Mill
ions
65+45-64<45
Average of fast and slow scenarios
Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections
Change in homeowners by race and age, 2010-30
27
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
2010s 2020s
Mill
ions
65+45-64<45Total
Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections
Whi
te
Whi
te
Whi
te
Whi
te
His
pani
c
His
pani
c His
pani
c
His
pani
c
Oth
er Oth
er Oth
er Oth
er
Bla
ck
Bla
ck
Bla
ck
Bla
ck
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1990–2000 2000–10 2010–20 2020–30
Perc
ent c
hang
e in
hom
eow
ners
by
race
/eth
nici
ty
By the 2020s, Hispanics, blacks, Asians, and other non-whites will account for all growth in homeownership
Source: U.S. Census 1990-2010, Urban Institute projections.
Assumes average between the high and low scenarios
28
Renters by race and age, 2010-2030
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
2010 2020 2030
Mill
ions
65+
45-64
<45
Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections
Change in renters by race and age, 2010-2030
30
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
Whi
te
Bla
ck
His
pani
c
Oth
er
2010s 2020s
Mill
ions
65+45-64<45Total
Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections
M apping America’s Futures: Local demographics, housing markets, and fair housing
31
Projected population change, 2010-30