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Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Green Growth: Powering Innovation
Daniel M. Kammen
Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the EnvironmentEnergy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy
Department of Nuclear EngineeringUniversity of California, Berkeley
Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu
UCLA/Lake Arrowhead Summit, October 15, 2007
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Global Energy Supply by Fuel
Fossil Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 2005 2030
1.6%
1.6%
1.3%
1.7%
1.6%
Oil
Gas
Coal
Other
MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
A massive carbonBaseline & inertia
Other Energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 2005 2030
1.6%
1.0%
2.2%
Nuclear
Hydro/Geo
Biomass / Other
MBDOE
Wind & Solar20.5%
1.4%
Biofuels 7.2%
Sufficient opportunitiesexist
Wind, Solar & Biofuels
0
1
2
3
4
5
1980 2005 2030
8.8%
12.5%
7.2%
Wind
Biofuels
MBDOE
8.4%Solar
Fastest growth, smallest sectors
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards
24 states + DC, and counting
Solar water heating eligible
CA: 20% by 2010
State Goal
PA: 18%¹ by 2020
NJ: 22.5% by 2021
CT: 10% by 2010
MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase
WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal
IA: 105 MW
MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +Xcel mandate of
1,125 MW wind by 2010
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
*NM: 10% by 2011AZ: 15% by 2025
NV: 20% by 2015
ME: 30% by 2000;10% by 2017 goal - new RE
State RPS
*MD: 7.5% by 2019
* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewablesPA: 8% Tier I (renewables)
HI: 20% by 2020
RI: 15% by 2020
CO: 10% by 2015
DC: 11% by 2022
NY: 24% by 2013
MT: 15% by 2015
*DE: 10% by 2019
IL: 8% by 2013
VT: RE meets load growth by 2012*WA: 15% by 2020
OR: 25% by 2025
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Gre
en
jo
bs c
rea
ted
(th
ou
sa
nd
s o
f p
ers
on
ye
ars
)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Re
ne
wa
ble
en
erg
y g
en
era
ted
(T
Wh
)
Green job creation
California
Pennsylvania
New YorkTexas
Illinois
Nevada
Other 18 states with an RPS
plus Federal RPS
Federal + state RPS yields +348,000 jobs in 2025
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Best Research-Cell EfficienciesBest Research-Cell EfficienciesEf
ficie
ncy
(%)
Universityof Maine
Boeing
Boeing
Boeing
BoeingARCO
NREL
BoeingEuro-CIS
200019951990198519801975
NREL/Spectrolab
NRELNREL
JapanEnergy
Spire
No. CarolinaState University
Multijunction ConcentratorsThree-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)Two-junction (2-terminal, monolithic)
Crystalline Si CellsSingle crystalMulticrystalline
Thin Film TechnologiesCu(In,Ga)Se2
CdTeAmorphous Si:H (stabilized)
Emerging PVDye cellsOrganic cells(various technologies)
Varian
RCA
Solarex
UNSW
UNSW
ARCO
UNSWUNSW
UNSWSpire Stanford
Westing-house
UNSWGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech Sharp
NREL
Spectrolab
NREL
MasushitaMonosolar Kodak
KodakAMETEK
Photon Energy
UniversitySo. Florida
NRELNREL
NRELCu(In,Ga)Se2
14x concentration
NREL
United Solar
United Solar
RCA
RCARCA
RCA RCARCA
Spectrolab
Solarex12
8
40
16
20
24
28
32
36
University ofLausanne
University ofLausanne
Siemens
2005
Kodak UCSBCambridge
Groningen
University LinzBerkeley
Princeton
UniversityLinz
California Japan
2005 Annual PV Installations 50 MW 290 MW
Average Cost for Residential System $8.8/Wac $7.4/Wac
Average Cost Reduction from 99-04 5.2%/year 8.9%/year
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Roll on PV cells.
Solar photovoltaic installations of thin film cells, in Germany
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Green job creationMore renewables = more jobs
Construction, Manufacturing,
Installation
O&M and fuel
processing
Construction, Manufacturing and Installation
(person-yr/MWp)
Operation and Maintenance (jobs/MWp)
Fuel extraction and
processing (person-yrs/TWh)
PV 1 710 140 25 21% 32 0.3 0 1
PV 2 660 550 25 21% 30 1.0 0 3
Wind 1 50 30 25 35% 4 0.1 0 1
Wind 2 290 30 25 35% 22 0.1 0 2
Biomass - high estimate 50 280 25 85% 9 0.4 220 1
Biomass - low estimate 50 40 25 85% 9 0.04 40 1
Coal 30 80 40 80% 9 0.2 60 1
Gas 30 80 40 85% 9 0.1 70 4
[3] Greenpeace, 2001[4] Kammen, from REPP, 2001; CALPIRG, 2003; BLS, 2004
Sources[1] REPP, 2001[2] EWEA/Green-peace, 2003
Energy Technology
Jobs(total person-yrs/TWh)
Source of Numbers
Equipment lifetime (years)
Capacity Factor
Employment Components
Plug In Partners / e.g. CalCars.org
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
PHEV Off-Peak Electricity Demand (One million PHEVS in CA)
• Additional load from PHEVs is small• PHEVs could be charged mostly via base-load filling during
evenings and nights, when electricity costs are low
Model: IPM
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
UNIVERSIT Y O F CAL IF ORN IABERK ELE Y
REP ORT OF THERENEWAB LE AND APP ROPRIATE EN ERGYLABORA TO RY
Putting Re newa bles t o Work :How Many J obs C an theClean Energy Indus tryGenerate?
by
Daniel M. Ka mmenKa mal K apadiaMatthias Fripp
of theEnergy and Resource s Group &the Goldman Sc hool of Pu blic Po licy
APRIL 13, 2004
Report availableat:
Study reviews:
• 13 studies of job creation
• 3 - 5 timesMore jobs per dollar invested in the renewables sector than in fossil fuels
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a Low-Carbon Fuel, but it
can be
FT (Coa
l)
Gasoli
ne (S
hale)
Gasoli
ne (T
ar S
ands
)
FT (Coa
l CCD)
Gasoli
ne
Ethan
ol (C
orn
Coal)
Ethan
ol (T
oday
)
Ethan
ol (C
orn
NG)
Biodies
el
Ethan
ol (C
orn
Biomas
s)
Ethan
ol (C
ellulo
se)
Ethan
ol (C
orn
Biomas
s CCD)
Ethan
ol (C
ellulo
se C
CD)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1
lbs
CO
2/g
al g
aso
lin
e eq
uiv
alen
t
FT (Coal)
Gasoline (Shale)
Gasoline (Tar Sands)
FT (Coal CCD)
Gasoline
Ethanol (Corn Coal)
Ethanol (Today)
Ethanol (Corn NG)
Biodiesel
Ethanol (Corn Biomass)
Ethanol (Cellulose)
Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)
Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Land Required to Satisfy Current U.S. Mobility Demand
1,200600200 400 800 1,0000
New Land Required (million acres)
CRP Land (30 MM)
LDVHDV
U.S. Cropland (400 MM)
II. Corn stover (72%) -50 Feasibility of stover utilization enhanced by rotation
I. Soy switchgrass or large biomass soy -10
Agricultural integrationEarly-cut switchgrass produces more feed protein/acrethan soy; similar benefits from “large biomass soy”
Vehicle efficiency 2.5X↑ 165
Advanced processing 41091 gal Geq/ton
1,030Status quo 36 gal Geq/ton, current mpg, no ag. integration, 5 tons/acre*yr
Biomass yield 2.5X↑ 65
III. Other Winter cover crops, other residues, increased productivityof food crops, increased production on under-utilized land…
U.S. mobility demand, the largest per capita in the world, could be met from land now used for agriculture while maintaining food production (L. Lynd)
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduMiscanthus Late Summer
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduWinter Stand Recovered After Ice-Storm
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards
24 states + DC, and counting
Solar water heating eligible
CA: 20% by 2010
State Goal
PA: 18%¹ by 2020
NJ: 22.5% by 2021
CT: 10% by 2010
MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase
WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal
IA: 105 MW
MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +Xcel mandate of
1,125 MW wind by 2010
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
*NM: 10% by 2011AZ: 15% by 2025
NV: 20% by 2015
ME: 30% by 2000;10% by 2017 goal - new RE
State RPS
*MD: 7.5% by 2019
* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewablesPA: 8% Tier I (renewables)
HI: 20% by 2020
RI: 15% by 2020
CO: 10% by 2015
DC: 11% by 2022
NY: 24% by 2013
MT: 15% by 2015
*DE: 10% by 2019
IL: 8% by 2013
VT: RE meets load growth by 2012*WA: 15% by 2020
OR: 25% by 2025
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Solar & Distributed Generation
Provisions in RPS Policies
PA: 0.5% solar PV by 2020
TX: 500 MW non-wind
NM: triple credit for solar electric
AZ: 4.5% DG by 2025
NV: 1% solar by 2015;2.4 to 2.45 multiplier for PV
MD: double credit for solar electric
CO: 0.4% solar electric by 2015
DC: 0.386% solar electric by 2022
NY: 0.1542% customer-sited by 2013
DE: triple credit for solar electric
Solar water heating counts towards solar set-aside
WA: double credit for DG
DG: Distributed Generation
NJ: 2.12% solar electric by 2021
CA: 3,000 MW or more via SB1 & Million solar roofs
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
R&D
(billi
on 20
02$s
)DefenseSpaceHealthEnergyGeneral ScienceOther
Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004
Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999
Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology,
Fall, 84 – 88. And Nemet, dissertation, 2007
Patents and R&D Funding Correlated
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
If you think US public sector energy R&D funding is doing poorly …
Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology,
Fall, 84 – 88.
-
2
4
6
8
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
R&
D (
2002
$b
) Public energy R&D
Private energy R&D
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Gasoline
Air travel
Gasoline
Auto manufacturing
Auto services
public trans.
airlinespublic trans.
Electricity
Naturalgas
Other fuels
Construction
Financingwater & sewage
electricitynatural gasother fuels
Meat
Eating out
Fruit & veg.
Snack food
cereals
DairyAlcohol & tobacco
Clothing
Household equip.
entertainment.cleaning supplies.
furniture.
healthcaregiving
education
Transportation Housing Food Goods Services
Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household (LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases
IndirectDirect44%
56%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Total
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu
Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities