www.ecn.nl

Some observations and comments on EU’s roadmap for low carbon growth in 2050

Remko Ybema

Observation: messages of hope

• A road to a low carbon economy is within reach

• A consistent picture of the portfolio of low-carbon technologies

• Substantial upfront cost, but these will be largely paid back

• Investments will spur economic growth and create jobs

• Substantial co-benefits

• Tested under different technical conditions

2 11-04-2023

It shows what is needed….

• A major increase in capital investments (270 bill. euro)

• The EU ETS will be critical to drive a wide range of technologies

• Smart financing schemes

• Public private financing mechanisms

• Additional RD&D investments (50 bill euro in 10 years)

3 11-04-2023

But…..

• Nowadays economy seems the only priority

• Conflicting stakes: some will lose…

• Inertia: not only physical inertia, also in policy processes, coordination, institutions, mindsets, behaviour….

• Price of CO2 is low

• Behavioural issues matter

• Often difficult to attract capital

•…and how to divide upfront cost?

4 11-04-2023

One of the reasons to be optimistic: investments in renewables

5 11-04-2023

[REN21, 2010]

In 2010: 243 billion dollar

But ….. how it compares with revenues of 10 largest companies ….

Rank Company Revenues($ millions)

Profits($ millions)

1 Wal-Mart Stores 408,214 14,335

2 Royal Dutch Shell 285,129 12,518

3 Exxon Mobil 284,650 19,280

4 BP 246,138 16,578

5 Toyota Motor 204,106 2,256

6 Japan Post Holdings 202,196 4,849

7 Sinopec 187,518 5,756

8 State Grid 184,496 -343

9 AXA 175,257 5,012

10 China National Petroleum 165,496 10,272

6 11-04-2023

[CNN money, 2011]

Determinants of behaviour not covered

• Needs satisfaction is leading, not energy considerations

• Risk aversion prevents many to change • Only a small correlation between awareness and

easy/symbolic green behaviour‑ Denial‑ Blame others‑ Blame the circumstances‑ Change opinion

Conclusions

• EU roadmap: messages of hope

• It shows what is needed, but partially

• Several elements are missing, including them makes the challenge larger