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Northeast Utilities System. Regulated Business Review and Northern Wood Power Project Tour. Portsmouth, New Hampshire September 23, 2005. Safe Harbor Provisions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Northeast Utilities System
Regulated Business Review
and
Northern Wood Power Project Tour
Northeast Utilities System
Portsmouth, New Hampshire
September 23, 2005
2Northeast Utilities System
Safe Harbor Provisions
This presentation contains statements concerning NU’s expectations, plans, objectives, future financial performance and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In some cases, a listener can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as “estimate”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “forecast”, “should”, “could”, and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, actions by state and federal regulatory bodies; competition and industry restructuring; changes in economic conditions; changes in weather patterns; changes in laws, regulations or regulatory policy; expiration or initiation of significant energy supply contracts; changes in levels of capital expenditures; developments in legal or public policy doctrines; technological developments; volatility in electric and natural gas commodity markets; effectiveness of our risk management policies and procedures; changes in accounting standards and financial reporting regulations; fluctuations in the value of electricity positions; obtaining new contracts at anticipated volumes and margins; terrorist attacks on domestic energy facilities; and other presently unknown or unforeseen factors. Other risk factors are detailed from time to time in our reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to update the information contained in any forward-looking statements to reflect developments or circumstances occurring after the statement is made.
3Northeast Utilities System
Topics for the Morning
• Regulated distribution business overview in Connecticut and Massachusetts
• PSNH and New Hampshire overview
• New Hampshire generation and Northern Wood Project
• NU transmission investment update
4Northeast Utilities System
Overview of Connecticut and Massachusetts Delivery Businesses
Cheryl Grise’President – Utility Group
5Northeast Utilities System
Overview of Regulated Businesses
Residential CommercialIndustrial/
OtherTotal
Revenues(12-months
ending 6/30/05)
Earnings for Common
(12-months ending 6/30/05)
Equity(6/30/05)
CL&P 1,077 108 7 1,192 $3,042 $75.2 $953.5
PSNH 409 69 4 482 $1,027 $46.7 $420.2
WMECO 187 19 2 208 $387 $12.3 $171.9
Yankee Gas
173 22 2 197 $448 $16.5 $232.4
Total 1,846 218 15 2,079 $4,904 $150.7 $1,778.0
Numbers of customers in thousands as of 6/30/05 In millions of dollars
*Excludes acquisition premium
*
*
6Northeast Utilities System
CL&P Distribution: Critical Success Factors
• Timely recovery of flow-through costs– Transitional standard offer (TSO) payments
– Reliability-must-run payments
– Transmission costs
– Stranded costs (RRB)
• Distribution rates that provide timely recovery of and/or return on:– Increasing capital investments ($225 million of annual cap ex vs.
$125 million of depreciation)
– Rising pension, health benefit costs
– Other operating costs
• Strong customer service, reliability• Modest retail sales growth
7Northeast Utilities System
CL&P Bill Components Today
The proposed transmission investments in CT will help contain generation, congestion, and RMR costs.
2.70
0.471.070.27
1.81
5.99
0.82
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
June 2005 Total 13.123 cents/kwh
EAC
Generation
Federally MandatedCongestion Costs
Renewables, C&LM,SBC
Stranded CostCharge (CTA)
Transmission
Distribution
cents/kwh
8Northeast Utilities System
New Connecticut Legislation Provides Opportunities, Some Challenges for CL&P
• Incentives provide new earnings opportunities for capacity built in CL&P service area
– $25/kw for new traditional capacity
– $200/kw for distributed generation
• CL&P could build its own generation, but it could be obligated to sell the capacity after five years
• Future of TSO procurement fee unclear after 2006– Begun in 2004
– Currently provides about $7 million of annual net income
– 0.5 mills/kwh is being collected now
– 0.25 mills/kwh additional incentive under review
– DPUC report back to legislature in early 2006 on procurement fee future
• Transmission tracker ensures timely recovery of rising transmission costs
9Northeast Utilities System
Yankee Gas Growth Opportunities Focused on Infrastructure Investments
• LNG facility
• New line to New England Gas in Rhode Island through southeast Connecticut entered service in 11/04
• Support for construction of new generating capacity
– Considerable interest expressed to date
• $15 million of investment annually to improve reliability
• $15 million annually to meet load growth
• $15 million on meters, technology, highway relocations, other commitments
10
Northeast Utilities System
Yankee Gas LNG Project
• 1.2 Bcf LNG storage tank
• Vaporization capability of 60,000 mcf per day
• Liquefaction capability of 6,000 mcf per day
• Total costs estimated at $108 million
• Incremental capacity to fill supply gap
• Construction 35% complete
• Scheduled to be in service for the 2007/2008 winter heating season
• Will help insulate customers from price volatility
11
Northeast Utilities System
Status of Yankee Rates
• $14 million distribution rate increase effective 1/1/05
• Next rate case expected to be filed in late 2006 to be effective 7/1/07 or when LNG facility enters service, whichever is sooner
• Full pass-through of purchased gas costs
12
Northeast Utilities System
WMECO Remains Quiet on Regulatory Front
• $6 million distribution rate increase 1/1/05 has allowed earnings to stabilize
• $3 million distribution rate increase approved for 1/1/06
• Rate case will be filed around 7/1/06 to be effective 1/1/07
• Capital investment smaller than other subsidiaries, but still twice depreciation
– $40 million for T&D in 2005
• Full and timely pass-through of purchased power costs
13
Northeast Utilities System
We Are Closely Watching Retail Electric Sales
2.4%
-6.0%
2.6%
5.7%1.3%
-0.8%-7.4%0.0%
YTD sales through August (2005 vs. 2004)(percent increase/decrease)
Actual Electric Sales Weather-Adjusted Electric Sales
Residential Commercial Industrial Total Retail Electric
14
Northeast Utilities System
PSNH Overview
Gary LongPresident and Chief Operating Officer
15
Northeast Utilities System
• 5,445 square miles
• 211 New Hampshire communities
• More than 480,000 customers
• 8,041,000 megawatt hours in annual sales
• 1,234 employees
• 1,000 miles of transmission and about 12,000 miles of distribution lines
PSNH Service Area: Key Facts
16
Northeast Utilities System
PSNH Generation Organization (NWPP Focused)
Cheryl Grise’President – Utility Group
Gary LongPresident & COO - PSNH
John MacDonaldVice President - Operations
William SmagulaDirector – PSNH Generation
Richard DespinsSchiller Station Manager
Jody TenbrockManager, Fuel Purchasing & Supply
Michael HitchkoNWPP Project Manager
17
Northeast Utilities System
Major NH Electric Restructuring Timeline
2000: Electric restructuring laws approved by the NH Legislature consistent with a 1999 state settlement agreement with PSNH
2002: Electric restructuring laws modified to restrict PSNH from divesting its generating units until at least 2004
2003: Electric restructuring laws modified again to restrict PSNH from divesting its generating units until at least April 30, 2006. PSNH to divest its generation only if it is in the economic interest of PSNH’s retail customers
The changes allowed PSNH to modify its generation facilities with cost recovery thus enabling the NWPP
18
Northeast Utilities System
PSNH Regulatory Rate Settlement of 2004
• T&D rate increases of $3.5 million on 10/1/04 and $10 million on 6/1/05
– Partially for the purpose of recovering costs due to the transfer of 34.5kv system assets from transmission to distribution rate base
• Commitment to invest at least $60 million in capital improvements to its electric system in 2005
• No specified ROE
• No requirement or restrictions on a filing date for a new rate case
• The revenue requirements associated with the Northern Wood Power Project are recovered fully through reconciled energy service prices, subject to a NWPP “Risk Sharing Agreement”
19
Northeast Utilities System
Other Key PSNH Regulatory Items
• Generation ROE
– NHPUC lowered ROE on PSNH generation equity from 11% to 9.63%, effective 7/1/05
– Affects about $100 million of equity
– PSNH’s request for reconsideration is pending before the NHPUC
• Fully tracking energy charge
– Set once a year with the option of a mid-year change if needed
– Recovers actual purchased power and fuel costs
– Recovers all costs related to generation including a return on investment
20
Northeast Utilities System
PSNH Retail Rates Today
2.51
7.24
0.30
3.37
0.38
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Stranded Cost RecoveryCharge
System Benefits Charge
Consumption Tax
Energy
Transmission
Distribution
cents/kwh
September 2005 Total 13.855 cents/kwh
0.055
21
Northeast Utilities System
New Hampshire Economy Remains Strong
1.7%
1.1%
2.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-0.5%
0.6%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
5.2%4.8%
3.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Employment Growth(% change 7/05 vs. 7/04)
Manufacturing Employment Growth(% change 7/05 vs. 7/04)
Unemployment Rate(July 2005)
New Hampshire New England U.S.
22
Northeast Utilities System
PSNH Generation
John MacDonaldVice President - Operations
23
Northeast Utilities System
PSNH Generation in 2004
30% Purchases
70%
PSNH-Owned Generation
Meeting Customer Demand PSNH-Owned Generation
Purchases
Purchases
24
Northeast Utilities System
PSNH Generation Fleet
Unit Capability Year in Service
Coal Merrimack Unit 2 320 mw 1968
Merrimack Unit 1 113 mw 1960
Schiller Unit 4 50 mw 1952
Schiller Unit 5 50 mw 1955
Schiller Unit 6 50 mw 1957
Oil/Gas Newington 406 mw 1974
Wyman 20 mw 1978
Merrimack CT 43 mw 1968
Schiller CT 18 mw 1970
Lost Nation CT 18 mw 1969
White Lake CT 22 mw 1968
Hydro Amoskeag 18 mw 1922 – 1924
Smith 15 mw 1948 – 1949
Garvins 14 mw 1907 – 1981
Other Hydros 21 mw 1912 - 1927
25
Northeast Utilities System
PSNH Generation Fleet is Competitive
$75 Million in Savings Annually
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
PSNH-Owned Generation+ Market Purchases
Open Market*
7.24¢
8.50¢
* Forecast estimate
cents/kwh
26
Northeast Utilities System
Schiller Station: Future Site Plan
Northern Wood Power Project
27
Northeast Utilities System
Sources of Wood for the Northern Wood Power Project
Fuel will be delivered by truck
28
Northeast Utilities System
New Hampshire is a Small, Heavily Forested State
• Covers 5.7 million acres, with about 1.3 million residents
• Second most forested state in the nation (80%)
• Home to one of the oldest private forest conservation organizations in the country (Society for the Protection of NH Forests: 1901)
• Forest products industry in NH is a major employer and economic force
– Forestry represents $3.9 billion in economic activity statewide, roughly 11% of the gross state product
29
Northeast Utilities System
The Wood-Chip Market in NH Peaked at About 1.8 Million Tons Annually in 1992
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Peak
Wood-fired IPP Buyouts
Start
Tons
30
Northeast Utilities System
The Process: Delivery to Electricity
31
Northeast Utilities System
The Economics of the Project Are Strong
Capital Cost of the Project
Estimated total cost $75 million
• Purchase and install new boiler, stack, environmental and fuel equipment
• Balance of plant/civil addition/modifications
• Engineering, permitting, and construction and AFUDC
Operating Cost of the Station
• $300,000 projected increase annually
Variable Fuel Costs
• Coal on existing boiler $28-32/mwhr
• Wood on new boiler $32-38/mwhr
Additional Revenue and Avoided Cost Associated with the Project
Sale of additional incremental generation: $2-3M/year
Reduced emissions cost: $3-5M/year
Sale of renewable energy credits: $8-12M/year
Production tax credit: $3M/year
32
Northeast Utilities System
Environmental Benefits
Using wood for fuel has significant environmental benefits
33
Northeast Utilities System
The NWPP Leverages an Emerging Market for “Green Power” in the Region
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MA REC's CT REC's Total MA & CT REC's Schiller RECs
RE
C’s
34
Northeast Utilities System
NWPP Regulatory Treatment
Total Investment$75 Million
Equity: $33.75M (45%)
Allowed return:9.63%
Earnings: $3.25M/year
50/50 sharing of supplemental revenues and rebates over or below settlement baseline*
Debt: $41.25M 55%
* Includes revenue from the sale of Renewable Energy Certificates or Renewable Production Tax Credits
35
Northeast Utilities System
The Technology Planned for the Project Boosts the Environmental Benefits
• A circulating fluidized bed (CFB) type boiler will be installed at Schiller Station to replace an existing boiler
– Known and proven technology
– Significantly lowers emissions
– Provides for fuel flexibility
– Qualifies for the renewable portfolio standard (RPS) in Massachusetts and Connecticut
36
Northeast Utilities System
Northeast Utilities Plans for Investment in Transmission Infrastructure
Lee OlivierPresident – Transmission Group
37
Northeast Utilities System
The Nation’s Transmission System is in Need of Significant Additions and Upgrades
• A 2001 Edison Electric Industry (EEI) study identified $56B in transmission infrastructure investment needs.
• The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has identified $12B that is needed simply to relieve immediate congestion points.
• The August 14, 2003 blackout report addresses the need for significant new transmission investments.
FERC’s Electric Transmission Constraint Study identified congestion points that need immediate relief.
MAPP
SPP
ECAR
SERC
FRCC
MAIN
NWPA
AZ/NM/SNV
RMPA
ISO-NE
NYISO
PJM
SW CT Interface
Southeast PA West VA/PJM Interface
Southeast West VACentral MO
East KS/MO Interface
Northeast AZ
Central IA
WY/ID InterfaceCA/OR Interface
Pacific DC Intertie
East NY
Central CA
Southern CA
CA/MX
Northeast of Boston
Southwest MI
: Constraint and constrained flow direction
Transmission Constraints in the Contiguous U.S.
3737
38
Northeast Utilities System
About Northeast Utilities Transmission…
Operating CompanyTransmission Circuit
MilesTransmission Substations
12/31/04 Net Plant
in Service
($ Millions)
CL&P 1,671.5 38 293.1
WMECO (including HWP & HPE)
470.5 18 58.6
PSNH 997.5 52 119.7
Total NU 3,139.5 108 471.4
Comparative Ranking of NU at 12/31/04(Of the 20 largest transmission companies in the 11 Northeastern States)
• 4th Largest in terms of miles
• 10th largest in terms of Net Transmission Assets
39
Northeast Utilities System
In New England, the Regional Transmission Expansion Plan (RTEP) Identifies Nearly $2.4 Billion in Projects
RTEP05 Transmission Projects
57%
18%
10%
9%
5%
1%
NU
NGrid
NSTAR
UI
Bangor Hydro
Energy East
NU’s part of that transmission expansion program is over $1.4 billion.
40
Northeast Utilities System
Transmission Investment has a Favorable Regulatory and Financial Environment
• NU’s transmission tariffs fully track all transmission costs;– Rates are forward looking, based upon forecasted investment level– Rates are adjusted every six months– Provide for recovery of allowed cost of equity – Rates are trued-up annually
• The combination of forward looking rates and the annual true-up provision lower the risks associated with recovery of transmission investment.
• ROEs granted by FERC are more robust than those being granted by retail commissions, and reflect FERC’s policy of providing incentives for transmission investment.
• NU has put in place other initiative to manage risks– Internal organizational realignment with new transmission officers that have experience with
large capital projects in both nuclear and T&D– Enlisting top external engineering firms as agents on large projects providing engineering,
procurement and construction management– Conducting competitive bids on large components of all major projects– Implemented a risk management process with help from an external consultant on all major
projects
41
Northeast Utilities System
Transmission Group Asset Strategy for 2005
NU expects to spend $245 million for its transmission capital program for 2005
Five large projects in Connecticut comprise over two-thirds of the capital program:
Bethel-Norwalk $121.9M
Middletown-Norwalk $18.0M
Glenbrook Cables $3.9M
Long Island Replacement Cable $8.3M
Haddam Autotransformer $14.0M
The remaining one-third is comprised of nearly 200 projects in Transmission’s three-state region:
Connecticut $42.5M
Massachusetts $12.5M
New Hampshire $23.9M
$166.1M
$78.9M
42
Northeast Utilities System
NU’s Transmission Asset Strategy Has Identified Both Current and Future Transmission Investments
• NU’s Transmission Asset Strategy has identified the need for significant capital investment on franchise in all three states
• Transmission interconnections and interstate seams issues will become regional planning initiatives
• Technological advancement will create additional opportunities to invest
Under Construction
Siting Approved
Future Project
Legend
White Mountain Upgrade
Madbury Capacitor
Gosling Road Substation
Scobie SubstationFitzwilliam Substation
Tioga
Berkshire Solution
Springfield SolutionWoodland Capacitor
Pleasant Capacitor
Southern New England Reliability Project (SNERP)Northeastern Connecticut
Haddam Autotransformer
Barbour Hill Autotransformer
Middletown - Norwalk
Long Island Replacement Cable (LIRC)
Glenbrook Cables
Bethel - Norwalk
Plumtree - Triangle
Hudson – Scobie Line
43
Northeast Utilities System
The Need: An Adequate Transmission System
SWCT improvements have been a top priority in each of ISO-NE’s last four regional transmission expansion plans. Our four major
projects there total over $1.3 billion in investment.
345-kV115-kV
50% of CT 50% of CT LoadLoad
Bethel-Norwalk 345 kV Underground & Overhead$300-350 Million 21 miles 345kV
(56% underground)
10 miles 115kV (100% underground)
Projected in-service date: Dec 2006
Middletown-Norwalk 345 kVUnderground & Overhead$672-792 Million* (CL&P 80% Share)
69 miles 345kV (35% underground)
57 miles 115kV (1% underground)
Projected in-service date: 2009
Glenbrook Cables 115 kV Underground $120 Million 9 miles 115kV underground
Projected in-service date: 2008
Long Island Cable 138 kV cross sound$72 Million (CL&P 50% Share)
13 miles 138kV submarine cable
Joint project with LIPA
Projected in-service date: 2007 *Costs are being reevaluated
44
Northeast Utilities System
Financial Implications
For customers:
– Improved reliability – creates secure supply, quality service and stable environment for production and growth
– Lower levels of congestion and less LICAP exposure results in lower bills
– Increased access by competitive generators should lower costs
For shareholders:
– Increases in rate base from investments drive earnings growth (compound annual growth rate greater than 20%)
– $500 million of current rate base
– $1 billion - $1.5 billion of capital spending projected in 2005-2009
– Siting for our large projects is progressing
– Our cost recovery mechanisms are largely defined
45
Northeast Utilities System
Transmission Capital Expenditures*
$ Millions NU’s Transmission growth has already begun.
* Spending levels depend on final level and timing of all projects.
$55
$99
$171
$245
$285
$250
$375
$255
$20$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Actual Forecast
46
Northeast Utilities System
We Believe that a Significant, Continuing Stream of Investments in Transmission is Sustainable
• Line rebuilds to replace aging, low capacity conductor • Voltage conversions from 69 kV to 115 kV • Additional 345 – 115 kV autotransformers• New 115 and 345 kV lines (overhead and underground) to meet load growth and to increase transfer
capability across constrained interfaces• New substations to meet load growth
$55
$99
$171
$245
$285
$250
$375
$255
$20$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Actual Forecast
47
Northeast Utilities System
Q & A