REGIONAL GROWTH TRENDSKNOX AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES

KNOX & SURROUNDING COUNTIESREGIONAL GROWTH TRENDS

1. CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

2. LABOR FORCE3. DEVELOPMENT

ACTIVITY4. ISSUES

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS

KNOX AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES

Knoxville and Knox County Population Change, 1940-2017

178,468

223,007

250,523

276,293

319,694335,749

382,032

432,226

461,860

111,580124,769

111,827

174,587 175,045 169,761 173,890 178,874187,347

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

Knox County KnoxvilleSources:U.S. Census Bureau, Population of Counties by Decennial Census: 1900-1990, March 27, 1995.U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 2000 and 2010.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, 2018.

Knoxville Population Change,1970-2017

Sources:U.S. Census Bureau, Population of Counties by Decennial Census: 1900-1990, March 27, 1995.U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 2000 and 2010.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, 2018.

174,587 175,045

169,761

173,890

178,874

187,347

150,000

155,000

160,000

165,000

170,000

175,000

180,000

185,000

190,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2017

2000-2010 2010-2017

10%

90%

29%

71%

The City’s share of growth is increasing…

Knoxville

Knox County

Projected Population Growth, Knox County and Region, 2016-2070

957,486991,343

1,029,0041,061,966

1,091,9491,120,924

1,150,0141,180,015

1,210,9741,243,236

1,276,7711,311,351

456,132472,696

491,829509,363

526,202543,334

560,849578,740

596,903615,612

634,978654,871

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070

Region Knox County

Source: Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Tennessee, Knoxville - September 2017

The challenge with our changing age-distribution of the population…

Under 5 years

10 to 14 years

20 to 24 years

30 to 34 years

40 to 44 years

50 to 54 years

60 to 64 years

70 to 74 years

80 to 84 years

Knox County Population by Age, 1980

Female Male

Sources:U.S. Census Bureau, 1980, 2010 Census. UT Boyd Center for Business and Economic Research.

Under 5 years

10 to 14 years

20 to 24 years

30 to 34 years

40 to 44 years

50 to 54 years

60 to 64 years

70 to 74 years

80 to 84 years

Knox County Population by Age, 2010

Female Male

Under 5 years

10 to 14 years

20 to 24 years

30 to 34 years

40 to 44 years

50 to 54 years

60 to 64 years

70 to 74 years

80 to 84 years

Knox County Population by Age, 2040

Female Male

County to County MigrationRank County State

Net In-Migration

to Knox

1 Grainger TN 526

2 Blount TN 485

3 Wilson TN 370

4 Hamilton TN 342

5 Loudon TN 330

6 Campbell TN 281

7 Leon FL 264

8 McMinn TN 230

9 Baldwin AL 224

10 Rhea TN 222

Rank County State

Net Out-Migration

from Knox

1 Anderson TN 345

2 Jefferson TN 263

3 Genesee MI 219

4 Sevier TN 212

5 Dallas TX 198

6 Hendry FL 174

7 DeKalb TN 168

8 Ottawa MI 153

9 Fulton GA 147

10 Harrison MS 140

County to County MigrationRank County State

Net In-Migration

to Knox

1 Grainger TN 526

2 Blount TN 485

3 Wilson TN 370

4 Hamilton TN 342

5 Loudon TN 330

6 Campbell TN 281

7 Leon FL 264

8 McMinn TN 230

9 Baldwin AL 224

10 Rhea TN 222

Rank County State

Net Out-Migration

from Knox

1 Anderson TN 345

2 Jefferson TN 263

3 Genesee MI 219

4 Sevier TN 212

5 Dallas TX 198

6 Hendry FL 174

7 DeKalb TN 168

8 Ottawa MI 153

9 Fulton GA 147

10 Harrison MS 140

LABOR FORCE

KNOX AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES

Source: Woods and Poole Economics, 2017.

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Agriculture, natural resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Transportation and utilities

Services

Health care

Accommodation, food, entertainment

Federal, state, local government

Knox County Employment by Sector

(% of total by year)

1970 2017 2050

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Agriculture, natural resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Transportation and utilities

Services

Health care

Accommodation, food, entertainment

Federal, state, local government

Regional Employment by Sector

(% of total by year)

1970 2017 2050

Top Employers in our Region

BY INDUSTRY SECTOR

1. Health care

2. Education

3. Manufacturing

10

,41

9

8,0

82

8,0

00

6,6

89

5,8

81

5,5

47

5,0

00

4,3

87

4,0

01

4,0

00

3,3

28

3,2

08

3,2

04

3,1

88

3,0

00

2,9

52

2,5

00

2,4

70

Source: Knoxville News Sentinel, January 6, 2019.

Where Knox County residents that travel 0-25 miles for their commute go to work…

1. 93% stay in Knox County

2. 5.2% go to Anderson County

3. 1.7% go to Blount County

4. 0.2% go to Sevier County

Source: US Census, American Community Survey 2006 – 2010 http://bigbytes.mobyus.com/commute.aspx

Where Knox County workers that travel 0-25 miles for their commute come from…

1. 84% reside in Knox County

2. 5% reside in Blount County

3. 3% reside in Anderson County

4. 2.3% reside in Sevier County

Source: US Census, American Community Survey 2006 – 2010 http://bigbytes.mobyus.com/commute.aspx

Where do workers live and where are the jobs?• 1 Dot = 1 Residence

• 1 Dot = 1 Worker

Where do workers live and where are the jobs?• 1 Dot = 1 Residence

• 1 Dot = 1 Worker

Our work force is becoming more educated…

8.9%

25.5%28.7%

36.9%

7.7%

24.5%

29.4%

38.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Less than highschool

High schoolgraduate

Some collegeor associate's

degree

Bachelor'sdegree or

higher

Knox County Educational Attainment by Employment Status for the Population 25 to 64 years – 2010 vs. 2017

2010 2017

Sources: US Census: Longitudinal Employer – Household Dynamics, 2015; American Community Survey, 2010, 2017

DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY

KNOXVILLE & KNOX COUNTY

Post-Recession Trend

• Building activity remains lower than pre-recession levels for both residential and non-residential development.

3,622

4,467

3,858

4,1853,989

2,132

1,483

1,776

997

1,589

1,907

2,443

1,993

3,0703,188

211 204275

199307

201101 60 69 98 75 59 82 131 133

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NEW RESIDENTIAL AND NON-RESIDENTIAL UNITS, 2003-2017

Residential Non-Residential

Pre-Recession Recession / Early RecoveryRecovery / Post-

Recession

Recovery/Post-Recession total value of new construction in Knox County is…

Residential $3.08 billion

Non-Residential $1.39 billion

$4.47 billion $0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Value of New Construction in Knox County2008-2017

Inflation Adjusted ($million) Residential Inflation Adjusted ($million) Non-Residential

millions

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Value of Renovations in Knox County2008-2017

Inflation Adjusted ($million) Residential Inflation Adjusted ($million) Non-Residential

millions

Recovery / Post-Recession total value of renovations in Knox County is…

Residential $722 million

Non-Residential $1.62 billion

$2.34 billion

Single-Dwelling

1,03123%

Multi-Dwelling

3,37477%

City of Knoxville New Construction Housing Mix, 2012-2017

Single-Dwelling

5,66373%

Multi-Dwelling

2,10527%

Knox County (Unincorporated Area) New Construction Housing Mix, 2012-2017

2009201020112012201320142015201620172018

2009201020112012201320142015201620172018

ISSUES

KNOX AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES

Slower growing population…• Fewer births:

• Millennials are having fewer children or waiting longer to start a family.

• More deaths:• Baby Boomers continue to age and

mortality numbers are on the rise.

• Slowed net migration:• CBER noted that the net difference

remains positive, but the majority of the migration is happening in the Nashville metro area.

• IMPACT: Labor force, as a proportion of the population, is shrinking.

• Boyd Center of Business & Economic Research (CBER) recently updated the projected growth models for our county and region to reflect these trends.

• Visit knoxplanning.org for a news article on Local Population Projections and Growth Expectations.

Slower growing population…• Fewer births:

• Millennials are having fewer children or waiting longer to start a family.

• More deaths:• Baby Boomers continue to age and

mortality numbers are on the rise.

• Slowed net migration:• CBER noted that the net difference

remains positive, but the majority of the migration is happening in the Nashville metro area.

• IMPACT: Labor force, as a proportion of the population, is shrinking.

• Boyd Center of Business & Economic Research (CBER) recently updated the projected growth models for our county and region to reflect these trends.

• Visit knoxplanning.org for a news article on Local Population Projections and Growth Expectations.

566,175

595,787

584,406

543,334

662,902

602,218 602,851

579,272

500,000

520,000

540,000

560,000

580,000

600,000

620,000

640,000

660,000

680,000

2012 2013 2015 2017

2040 Projections for Knox County Population (based on yearly adjustments)

CBER2040 Population Projection

Woods & Poole2040 Population Projection

model vintage

Changing preferences of the population…

• Millennial preferences: • Moving into urban areas faster than

previous generations• Less likely to be homeowners• Varied transportation options (transit,

ridesharing, bicycling…)• Walkability, downtown energy, cultural

diversity, and social amenities of urban living.

• Recent apartment boom in the City of Knoxville confirms this trend.• Past 5-Years

• Single-family homes ¼ or 24%• Apartments ¾ or 76%

2,908

920

Apartments

Single-FamilyHomes

Wage stagnation and increasing housing costs

• Fair market rent for a one-bedroom is $694/month• To afford that, a worker would have to

earn $13.35/hr.

• Minimum wage ($7.25/hr) means a worker could afford to pay $377/month.

• A minimum wage worker must work 74 hours per week to pay for the $694/month in rent.

Source: National Low Income Housing Coalition, 2018

$- $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00

Wage Needed

Minimum Wage

Hourly Wage

$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

Wage Needed

Minimum Wage

Monthly Wage

$- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000

Wage Needed

Minimum Wage

Annual Wage

-$6.10

-$1,057.33

-$15,080.00

The minimum wage earning population makes 54% below what is needed to afford fair-market rent.

Shortage of housing appropriate to wages…

• There is not enough housing supply for those in the lower-middle income spectrum • Lower end: -17,500 missing

• Increased competition for housing across the lower to middle income groups.

• Increased competition for housing between higher and middle income groups.• Higher incomes aren’t

spending up to 2.5 times their income on housing.

Low High

$0 $9,999 -8,717

$10,000 $19,999 -8,745

$20,000 $29,999 1,033

$30,000 $39,999 10,197

$40,000 $49,999 6,090

$50,000 $59,999 1,332

$60,000 $74,999 3,715

$75,000 $99,999 -2,859

$100,000 $149,999 -4,361

$150,000 and over -2,518

Household Income Range Deficit/Surplus

Supply

THANK YOU & QUESTIONS?Liz Albertson, AICP

Senior Planner

Knoxville-Knox County Planning

liz.albertson@knoxplanning.org

865-215-3804

Story map coming soon on

knoxplanning.org