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Regional Approaches to Risk Management. Roger N. Jones. Living with our Changing Climate IOCI Seminar and Workshop 16 August 2005. Moving from the tactical to strategic management of climate. Socio-economic system. Climate system. Impacted activity. Current climate. Current adaptations. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Regional Approaches to Risk Management
Roger N. Jones
Living with our Changing Climate
IOCI Seminar and Workshop16 August 2005
Moving from the tactical to strategic management of climate
Seasonal outlooks
Decadal variability
Climate change
Tomorrow’s forecast
Irrigation, delivery, floods
Storage, allocations, crop planning
Sustainability, irrigation infrastructure, policy horizons (e.g, water reform, NAP, NHT) ,
changing land-use
Sustainability, salinity, infrastructure, changing land-use,
long-term natural capital, generational change
Time
High
Low
Cer
tain
ty,
polic
y &
man
agem
ent
Seasonal outlooks
Decadal variability
Climate change
Tomorrow’s forecast
Irrigation, delivery, floods
Storage, allocations, crop planning
Sustainability, irrigation infrastructure, policy horizons (e.g, water reform, NAP, NHT) ,
changing land-use
Sustainability, salinity, infrastructure, changing land-use,
long-term natural capital, generational change
Time
High
Low
Cer
tain
ty,
polic
y &
man
agem
ent
Seasonal outlooks
Decadal variability
Climate change
Tomorrow’s forecast
Irrigation, delivery, floods
Storage, allocations, crop planning
Sustainability, irrigation infrastructure, policy horizons (e.g, water reform, NAP, NHT) ,
changing land-use
Sustainability, salinity, infrastructure, changing land-use,
long-term natural capital, generational change
Time
High
Low
Cer
tain
ty,
polic
y &
man
agem
ent
Linking climate to adaptation over time
Climate system
Impacted activity
Socio-economicsystem
Current climate
Future climate
Future adaptations
Current adaptations
Risk is a measure of the changing ability to cope
• Assess current climate risks– Climate variability– How have people learnt to cope?
• Assess future climate risks– Changing climate hazards– Response between climate change and socio-
economic change– Estimating exposure to risks within relevant
planning horizons– Building on historical capacity and developing
new capacities
Scoping phase
If not already established, work with stakeholders to develop conceptual model of system
What is the relationship between the hazard, the impact and vulnerability?
Is there a point (linked to climate) where the the system ceases to operate in the way you would like? – critical threshold
Selecting a method
Current climate
Current impacts
Current adaptive capacity
Coping capacity & vulnerability
Policy & plans without climate
change
Future climate
Future impacts
Vulnerability to untreated risk
Developing new adaptive capacity
Prioritising and implementing adaptations
Residual risk
Natural hazards based
Vulnerability / resilience
based
Policy based
Historical & current climate risk
Future climate risk
Mitigation
Current climate
Current impacts
Current adaptive capacity
Coping capacity & vulnerability
Policy & plans without climate
change
Future climate
Future impacts
Vulnerability to untreated risk
Developing new adaptive capacity
Prioritising and implementing adaptations
Residual risk
Natural hazards based
Vulnerability / resilience
based
Policy based
Historical & current climate risk
Future climate risk
Mitigation
Characterisation of hazards
Sector Climate Hazards
Water Rainfall amount and variability, flood, drought
Agriculture Flood, drought, cool/hot extremes,Storms, hail, humidity
Health Hot/wet conditions, temperature extremes, violent storms, floods, crop and water shortages
Coasts Storm surges, wind/wave climates, pressure extremes, tidal extremes
Biodiversity Fire, flood, drought, storms
What’s my baseline – water resources
Climate records Streamflow records
Storage records Operational records
Abrupt shifts in Australian rainfall1890–1990
1891
1893
19721894
1967
1946
1945
1948
0102030405060708090
100110
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f st
atio
ns
TotalPositive
Future climate - no adaptation
Coping range
Vulnerability(drought)
Vulnerability(flood)
Future climate with adaptation
Coping range
Vulnerability(drought)
Vulnerability(flood)
Adaptation
Planning horizon
Policy Horizon
Planning horizons20
00
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Ne
w ir
rigat
ion
pro
ject
s
Lar
ge d
ams
Brid
ge
des
ign
life
/floo
d h
eig
hts
Ag
ricul
ture
(w
hole
far
m p
lann
ing
)
Tre
e c
rop
s
Airp
ort
des
ign
life
Pla
nt b
reed
ing
(ne
w c
rops
)F
ore
st le
ase
ag
reem
ent
sP
ulp
pla
ntat
ions
Maj
or
urb
an in
fras
truc
ture
Co
asta
l/to
uris
m in
fras
truc
ture
Ele
ctio
n cy
cles
/pro
fit &
loss
Ge
nera
tiona
l suc
cess
ion
Lo
ng-te
rm b
iod
ive
rsity
Nat
iona
l par
ks
Inte
rge
nera
tiona
leq
uity
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Ne
w ir
rigat
ion
pro
ject
s
Lar
ge d
ams
Brid
ge
des
ign
life
/floo
d h
eig
hts
Ag
ricul
ture
(w
hole
far
m p
lann
ing
)
Tre
e c
rop
s
Airp
ort
des
ign
life
Pla
nt b
reed
ing
(ne
w c
rops
)F
ore
st le
ase
ag
reem
ent
sP
ulp
pla
ntat
ions
Maj
or
urb
an in
fras
truc
ture
Co
asta
l/to
uris
m in
fras
truc
ture
Ele
ctio
n cy
cles
/pro
fit &
loss
Ge
nera
tiona
l suc
cess
ion
Lo
ng-te
rm b
iod
ive
rsity
Nat
iona
l par
ks
Inte
rge
nera
tiona
leq
uity
Average uncertainty
P and Ep change over Australia(per degree global warming)
NW NE
SE
Tas
SW
North-west
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cha
nge
per
degr
ee w
arm
ing
(%)
Evaporation Rainfall
South-west
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cha
nge
per
degr
ee w
arm
ing
(%)
Evaporation Rainfall
North-east
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cha
nge
per
degr
ee w
arm
ing
(%)
Evaporation RainfallSouth-east
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cha
nge
per
degr
ee w
arm
ing
(%)
Evaporation RainfallTasmania
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cha
nge
per
degr
ee w
arm
ing
(%)
Evaporation Rainfall
P and Ep changes for north-western Australia
Change per degree global warming
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cha
nge
per
degr
ee w
arm
ing
(%)
Evaporation Rainfall
P and Ep changes for south-western Australia
Change per degree global warming
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cha
nge
per
degr
ee w
arm
ing
(%)
Evaporation Rainfall
Hydrological sensitivity and runoff co-efficient
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 10 20 30 40 50
Runoff (% of rainfall)
Sen
sitiv
ity
Simhyd A Simhyd B AWBM A AWBM B Zhang01 A Zhang01 B
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Albany
Coa
st
Denm
ark R
iver
Kent R
iver
Frank
land
River
O'Sha
nnon
Rive
r
War
ren
River
Donne
lly R
iver
Blackw
ood
River
Busse
lton
Coast
Presto
n Rive
r
Collie
River
Harve
y Rive
r
Mur
ray R
iver (
WA)
Avon
River
Swan C
oast
Moo
re-H
ill Rive
rs
Cha
nge
in m
ean
annu
al f
low
(%
)
Simple model of mean flow changes in 2030 – preliminary results
Sup
ply
chan
ge
Demand change
Critical th
reshold
System vulnerability (supply & demand)
• Sensitivity to supply changes (climate, land-use, fire)
• Level of utilisation
• Demand projections
Current management
Marginal planned change
Substantial change
Adapting (generic)Improve technology access
Institutional reform
Improved equity
Access to information
Build social capital
Access to wealth creation
Adapting (specific)Mainstreaming adaptation
Natural resource management
New technology
Disaster planning
Retrofit existing structures
Build resilience/resistance
Autonomous adaptation
Assess risk
Manage risk
No adaptation
Autonomous adaptation
Critical risk
Coping range → Adaptive capacity
Mitigation
Adaptation
Mitigative capacity ←
Danger
Adapting (transformative)Replace activity
Abandon activity
Transform activity
Natural hazard-driven approach
• What risks may we face under this projected scenario(s)?
• Analyse possible outcomes from a given climate hazard(s) ± other drivers of change
• An understanding of current/future climate-related risks
• Exploratory scenarios of climate with other biophysical and socio-economic conditions – Probabilities of hazard constrained– Main drivers known – Chain of consequences understood– P(Hazard) × Consequences– Largely exploratory
Approach
Method
Outcome
Scenarios
Criteria:
Vulnerability-driven approach
• What is the risk of a specific place, process, group or activity being harmed?
• Determine the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance
• Understanding of exposure to harm and harmful processes
• Characterisation of socio-economic outcomes; can use climate scenarios or diagnose exposure through inverse methods– Probabilities of hazard not constrained– Many drivers resulting in vulnerability– Multiple pathways and feedbacks– P(Vulnerability)/Hazard (e.g. critical threshold
exceedance)– Largely normative
Approach
Method
Outcome
Scenarios
Criteria:
Resilience-driven approach
• What advantages can we gain by better understanding of our current/future capacities?
• Assess ability to withstand shocks, recover from setbacks and manage change.
• Better knowledge of coping mechanisms and socio-political institutions, barriers to adaptation, increased benefits
• Baseline adaptation, adaptation analogues from history, other locations other activities– Impacts and/or vulnerability understood– Evidence of successful adaptation– Benefits thought to be likely– Barriers to adaptation recognised– Risks that require treatment
Approach
Method
Outcome
Scenarios
Criteria:
Policy-driven approach
• How will our current plans for the future be affected by climate change?
• Assess the efficacy of an existing or proposed policy under climate change
• Fitter policy under climate change
• Unmanaged climate change impacts and vulnerability– Policy aims are sensitive to climate
change– Desire to “mainstream” adaptation
Approach
Method
Outcome
Scenarios
Criteria: