Region IV Future Planning 3-5 Day Outlook · 2019. 8. 30. · including Miami -Fort Lauderdale (FL), Orlando Kissimmee (FL), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Jacksonville (FL), Savannah

Hurricane Dorian Forecast Track and RIV PostureAs of Friday, August 30, 2019 (11 AM ET)

RIV RRCC Level II (all ESFs, DCE, and DHS IP)

IMATS /LNOs

LNOs – FL, GAIMATs – National IMAT East, RIV IMAT-1, RIV DCO @ FL SEOC, RIV IMAT-2 @ GA SEOC, RVII and RVIII @ RIV RRCC for staging

LogisticsISB Maxwell and North Field Operational, ISB Albany activated for generators and SAR, ISB Warner Robbins activated for fuel and bed down assets

CURRENT SITUATION: Hurricane Dorian continues to strengthen as it moves toward the southeastern United States. Dorian is forecast to be a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall in Florida, likely sometime late Monday (September 2nd) or Tuesday (September 3rd). As of 11 AM ET Friday, August 30th, maximum winds in Dorian were estimated at 110 mph. The onset of tropical storm conditions (39 mph or higher winds) in Florida is expected by late Sunday. Dorian is expected to slow down as it nears the coast, which will bring prolonged hazards, including flooding rains, destructive coastal surge, and long duration hurricane force winds.

Region IV Future Planning 3-5 Day OutlookIssued: August 30, 2019 (1700 EDT)Planning Period: Sun, Sep 2nd – Wed, Sep 4th

3 Day Impact Summary(Based on 60% Chance or Greater of Tropical Storm Winds)

Exposed Population

(Source: R4 GIS Affected

Counties )

Total Population: 8,596,763Total Households: 1,103,193Age 65+: 943,437Families Below Poverty Level: 119,378Disabled: N/A

Exposed Infrastructure /(R4 GIS Affected

Counties)

Cellular Communication: 168Public Schools: 922Hospitals: 90Nursing Homes: 349State/Local EOCs: N/AAirport Primary: 22Water (Waste/Treatment): 13Manufactured Housing: 108,209

CommoditiesAvailable

(Ordered) as of 8/30/19

Maxwell, ALMeals: 481k (6.8M)Water: 256k (2.6M)Generators: 0 (32)Blankets: 10k (20k)I&T Kits: 30 (52)Cots: 0 (6k)

North Field, SCMeals: 21k (1.5M)Water: 0 (400k)Sheeting: 0 (30k)Tarps: 0 (50k)Blankets: 0 (10k)I&T Kits: 0 (22)Cots: 0 (5k)

Warner Robbins, GAFuel: 0 (122k)

Albany, GAGenerators: 0 (225)

Projected 3-5 Day RIV Lifelines (or, Cascading Effects, Potentiality Impacted Lifelines)RED, YELLOW, GREEN, GREY

Planning Assumptions:• Evacuations for Florida will be completed prior to the start

of the planning period• Based on current forecasts, evacuations may be underway

for parts of Georgia and South Carolina, with considerations for North Carolina

• The heaviest rainfall and strongest winds will be occurring during the planning period

• Dorian’s slow forward motion could produce significant inland flooding, making primary ingress/egress routes inaccessible, which may suspend or impede interstate movement of teams and resources

• Areas in Florida and Georgia impacted by recent hurricanes (i.e., Michael and Irma), may require additional tarps for retarping

• Food, Water, and Shelter, Transportation, and Energy Lifelines will deteriorate over the 5-day period

• Urban Search and Rescue Task Force teams will begin life-saving operations during the planning period

• Additional IMAT teams may be required for multi-state operations

• Short term shelter support requirements may be compounded by multi-state evacuations

• Exposure to multiple high populated metropolitan areas, including Miami-Fort Lauderdale (FL), Orlando-Kissimmee (FL), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Jacksonville (FL), Savannah (GA), and Charleston (SC), may exhaust availableassets of federally contracted evacuation services

**This Document is a summary of potential impacts in the next 3-5 days based on information available**

Presenter’s Name June 17, 2003

Recommendations for Stabilization3-5 Days (Sunday, September 2nd – Wednesday, September 4th)

Coordinate with Federal liaisons and State partners for an initial needs assessment and develop immediate

response objectives (RRCC Staff)

Consider strategic deployment of teams and resources in preparation of multi-state impacts (RRCC Staff)

Coordinate potential fuel shortfalls necessary to sustain Federal, State, Local, Tribal government operations

(Logistics/Tribal LNO)

Monitor major transportation modes for potential conflicts from multi-state evacuation and re-entry (ESF-1)

Monitor commodities, state requirements, and requests and adjust burn rates as necessary (Logistics)

Monitor infrastructure support due to power outages (ESF-3)

Ensure the safety of FEMA staff in impacted areas (Mission Support)

Investigate and evaluate potential sites for responder support camps from targeted impacts areas (Logistics)

Evaluate compounding impacts to recently declared disaster areas (i.e., Hurricanes Michael and Irma)

(Planning/GIS/Recovery)


National Flood Insurance Policy Contracts within Special Flood Hazard Area

Lighter shaded counties

indicate areas with

insufficient NFIP coverage

within FEMA designated

100-year floodplain


Repetitive Loss Structures within Areas of Potential Storm Surge Flooding


Transportation anticipated between 09/02/19 and 09/04/19

Anticipated Impact Statement: Most major roadways are open and clear and state DOTs have

begun inspection and repair of state and federal highways and bridges.

ComponentKey

ElementWhat So What Now What Limiting Factors

Trend: Deteriorating

Highway/RoadwayMotor Vehicle

Main Roads

Anticipate flooding, debris and downed power lines will impact the roads in the area

Ground travel in the impact zone will be hazardous for first responders

State, county and local DOT’s will assess the status of roads in the impacted areas. I anticipate a request for federal assistance with debris removal, to include saw teams and power crews.

Flood waters recedingThe availability of debris removal, saw teams, and power crews in the impact zone my slow opening times (recommend prestaging or early deployment)

Mass Transit Bus Service

Anticipate most transit services in the path of the storm will cease operations

Assets utilized to provide public transit and evacuations may not be available

Transit providers will inspect their facilities and equipment and resume operations when ground conditions are safe.

Flood waters receding

Railway Infrastructure

Anticipate flooding, debris and downed power lines will impact the railroads in the area

Rail travel in the impacted zone may not operate on a normal schedule

Private sector Railroad Emergency Response teams will assess the rail in the impacted zone and resume operations when safe

Flood waters receding

Aviation Airport Status

Anticipate airports and ATC facilities in the storms path will cease operations

Air travel may not operate as scheduled in the impact zoneAirport managers and the FAA will assess the status of airport facilities and equipment and resume operations when safe

Maritime Port Status

Anticipate Ports in the region will begin adjusting their status as the storm approaches

Ports impacted by the storm may be unusableUSCG and Army Corp of Engineers will assess the status of the ports and waterways and open when safe

PipelineInfrastructure

Anticipate Pipeline operators in the storms path will implement precautionary shut downs

Pipelines providing fuel and natural gas in the impacted area may not operate

Private sector pipeline operators will ops test pipelines in the impacted area and if no issues are identified, restart the pipelines.

Stabilization- Components of Transportation are able to support the Federal, State, Local, Tribal and/or Territorial Response by enabling all other Lifelines and is not a limiting factor for providing goods, resources and services tomeet the immediate needs of the survivors.


Medical Care

Acute care• Localized disruptions in the

impacted areas• Temporary augmentation of

acute care

Medical care may be reduced in some areas resulting in the need for patient movement

• Employ National EMS Contract assets for potential requests and employ assets as needed

• Employ medical teams for potential requests and employ as needed

• Emergency Dept (ED) decompression. Employ DMAT for patient medical care at compromised facilities to intake patient overflow

• ED Surge. Employ DMAT to receive assist facility experiencing patient surge

• Employ mental health teams at shelters as required

• Uncertainty of the impact area and the large size of the geographic area

• Responder loading will be a challenge

PatientMovement

Emergency MedicalServices

• Health care facility evacuation• Increased patient

transfer/transport distances

Increased need for medical and para transport resources

• Employing National EMS Contract assets to support requests and deploy assets as needed

• Employ Lilly Pad strategy with rotary wing air support to move critical needs patient

Uncertainty of the impact area and the large size of the geographic area

Public Health

Hazard/Threat/Disease

• Flooding may result in private well contamination

• Power outages increase the risk of food contamination

• State Health Departments will provide messaging for post storm well use and food safety precautions

• Assess whether there is a need for public health needs that exceed state capacity

• Employee Shelter support to provide federal medical shelter as requested by the state

• None currently

Fatality Management

Body Recovery andProcessing

• None currently (Florida has a very robust internal capability)

• None currently

Medical Industry

Critical Pharmaceutical

• Potential short term supply chain disruptions

• Health care coalitions will work to fill shortages at the local level

• Maintain situational awareness to identify shortages that cannot be met locally to identify logistical support gaps

• None currently • Transportation network disruptions due to flooding or other storm related impacts

Stabilization-The Health and Medical Lifeline is able to provide medical care, public health, pre-hospital, fatality management, behavioral health and medical industry to ensure life-saving/sustaining services are adequate to meet the needs of the impacted area.

Health and Medical anticipated between 09/02/19 and 09/04/19

Anticipated Impact Statement: Interim health and medical solutions may be required to bridge

medical capacity shortfalls due to damages in the impacted area.

Component

Key

Element What So What Now What Limiting Factors

Trend: No Change


Hazardous Waste anticipated 09/02/19 and 09/04/19

Anticipated Impact Statement: There may be hazardous waste and cleanup identified after post

storm assessments. Impact to waste water systems will be monitored during the storm and assessed

post land fall.

ComponentKey

Element What So What Now WhatLimitingFactors

FacilitiesOil and Hazardous

Materials

Potential physical damage to storage or process systems. Containment may be compromised.

Coordinate with State and locals to identify compromised facilities.

Coordination with state and local to ensure facility assessment and appropriate response.

Communications with operators/owners, local responders

Waste Water Systems

Waste Water Collection and Treatment

Facilities will be non-operational due to lack of power or physical damage to collection or treatment systems

Identify all potentially impacted facilities and for what reason.

Coordinate with state counterparts to determine operational status of facilities and collection systems. To determine means to restore function.

Communications with operators/owners

Incident Debris,

Pollutant,Contaminant

Oil, Hazardous Materials and Contaminated Debris

Potential release from facilities or transportation modes of oil or hazardous materials due to inundation, wind damage, etc.

Identify potentially impacted regulated sites. Monitor notifications through the National Response Center.

Coordination with state and local to ensure response to release. Verify existing sites have not been compromised.

Communications with operators/owners

Conveyance Pipeline

NSTR

Stabilization-Hazardous Substance Facilities, Conveyance Assets, Waste Water Systems, Incident Debris/Pollution/contaminants, no longer requires an Emergency Response to mitigate imminent or substantial threats to Public health/welfare or theenvironment.



Communications anticipated between 09/02/19 and 09/04/19Anticipated Impact Statement: Some loss of coverage resulting from potential disruptions of power and infrastructure

damage (towers and antenna)

ComponentKey

ElementWhat So What Now What LimitingFactors


Infrastructure

Wireline& Wireless

Damaged/submerged under water components

Reduced availability and means of responder and survivor communications.

Anticipate increased requirements for radio/satellite communications in areas where working

Based on what’s impacted, and what’s accessible send teams for restoration

Accessibility. Power. Dependent on storm path and damages sustained

Alerts, Warnings,

and Messaging

PSATransmittance & Capability

Launch and continue ESF 15 – Social media campaign reference “Don’t cut fiber” messaging

Advanced warning to minimize communications disruption and damage caused by work activities

Provide reminders to linemen, debris removers, etc. to minimize damages and/or downtimes.

Disrupted communications

911 & Dispatch911 Telephone Access

Chargers, wifi available at sheltersProvide comms to responders and survivors

Increase numbers of chargers where needed if possible

Numbers of components available in shelters. Availability of additional components and ability to distribute to shelters

Finance Access to Cash

Damaged, submerged, non-operational ATMs

No access to cashBased on what’s impacted, and what’s accessible, send teams for restoration

Accessibility. Power. Dependent on storm path and damages

Responder

CommunicationIOF/JFO COMs

MERS staging

Comms in place

DIRS – Sept 1Roll Call Aug 31

Establish Ground Truth baseline before landfall. Then evaluate against baseline

MERS = Ready and waiting

Anticipate making adjustments based on storm path predictions

Accessibility. Power. Dependent on storm path and damages sustained

Stabilization-Components of Communications are able to support the federal, state, local, tribal, and territory’s response by enabling all other Lifelines and is not a limiting factors for providing goods, resources, and services to meet the immediate needs of the survivors.


Safety and Security anticipated between 09/02/19 and 09/04/19

Anticipated Impact Statement: LEO continues to attain situational awareness while identifying gaps in coverage. SAR

and swift water rescue operations should be commencing as required.

ComponentKey


Government ServiceContinuityof Government

Responder SafetyConditions, Monitoring, andmessage

Law Enforcement Security

Police

Law enforcement resources in the TBD affected AOR (storm’s path) will be adversely affected resulting in diminished law enforcement response capabilities (ie. Personnel availability, 911 call center functionality, traffic light functionality, etc).

Impacts: Local LE agencies are unable to respond to emergencies, and receive 911 notifications.

ESF #13 is coordinating with State law enforcement partners to determine locations in the TBD AOR that may be in greatest need of LE support. (Either EMAC or DFA Mission)

ESF #13 is coordinating with FEMA Region 4 Tribal LNO to determine locations in the TBD Tribal AOR that may be in greatest need of LE support.

ESF #13 staging and deploying LE resources (IMT, QRTs, and Logistics) in support of ESF-8 and ESF-9 teams.

ESF #13 coordinating with MERS Comms Units to support LE Mission Assignments.

ESF13 LNOs on site at FL EOC, ESF8 IMT and ESF9 IST to coordinate above

Maintain Situational Awareness and Threat Analysis.

Coordinate with State ESF-13 Coordinators in FL and GA, for potential DFA, EMAC, NG, or LE support.

Coordinate with ESF8 and ESF9 for any force protection requirements.

Coordinate with MERS Teams for any force protection communications requirements.

Coordinate with FEMA region 4 Tribal LNO for any Tribe related LE support.

Identification of AOR

Search & Rescue Resources

8 Type I Task Force’s (TF) requested –Location TBD.4 Type III TF’s requested – location TBD4 MRP-Water teams requested – Location TBD2 LNO’s requested (1-RRCC & 1 FL EOC)IST (Incident Support Team) is at FL EOCHEPP (Hazardous Equipment Push Package) to deploy with Type I’s

Assist State, Regional, Tribal & locals agencies with “Land and Water based” Search and Rescue

Support local government preparation, response, and recovery efforts priorities are life-saving, rescue, and evacuation for affected population.

• Rescue/assistance of any and all entrapped / isolated survivors.

• Provide for a “delivery of survivors” to a local recognized definitive care authority.

• Work with local Search and Rescue (SAR) authorities to complete all SAR missions.

Ability to reposition teams as storm tracks north

Hazard MitigationLevee/Dams

Flooding may cause incidents at dams/levees within the impact area. Debris, Wind, and flood may reduce accessibility to dams/levees.

Incidents at high hazard dams could impact downstream population. Accessibility issues could reduce ability of regulators & owners to assess damage and respond to incidents.

Dam regulators & owners should plan for remote access to assess dams.

Loss of remote sensing

Stabilization-The Safety & Security Lifeline is able to provide Search & Rescue, Law Enforcement/Security, Safety for responders to ensure SLTT life saving/sustaining services are adequate to meet the needs of the survivors.



Food, Water, Sheltering anticipated between 09/02/19 and 09/04/19Anticipated Impact Statement: Resources have been identified and are available to support extended sheltering

operations.

ComponentKey


Food Mass Feeding & Last Mile

WaterWater Utility & Systems

Shelter/Housing/IA

CongregateShelters

Mass Care team

coordinated with the

American Red Cross and

Planning Support to

identify their current

resourcing assumptions.

Currently shelter resourcing assumptions post

impact are:

FL: 30,000

GA: 15,000

SC: 4,000

Durable Goods

Infant/ToddlerKits & DME/CMS Kits

Stabilization-Components are capable of supporting current and projected food, water, durable goods and sheltering needs of the Federal, State, Local, Tribal, & Territorial emergency response efforts.

Trend: Not Available


Energy Sector 09/02/19 and 09/04/19Anticipated Impact Statement: As debris teams are able to clear areas, power restoration teams should be able to

restore power in 5 days except for the hardest hit areas that will require entire system rebuilds. Fuel distribution and

temporary power generation needs will be initially degraded due to impacts to power grid and road network.

ComponentKey


Power Grid

Transmission and Distribution Significant Flooding blocks roadsUnable to get repair trucks or heavy equipment and material into remote areas

Wait for water to recede or build temporary roads

N/A

Temporary Power

Critical Facilities and Resources Significant flooding impedes or damages roadways Fuel delivery trucks cannot deliver fuel to power generator sets

Work with ESF-3 to identify alternate routes

N/A

Fuel Critical Facilities

1. No power at gas stations, preventing pumping of fuel

2. Poor distribution of fuel into isolated areas.

1. Gas stations cannot dispense fuels

2. Tanker trucks cannot deliver fuel

Work with social media to identify stations that can deliver fuel.

N/A

Stabilization-The Safety & Security Lifeline is able to provide Search & Rescue, Law Enforcement/Security, Safety for responders to ensure SLTT life saving/sustaining services are adequate to meet the needs of the survivors.


Documents

Region IV Future Planning 3-5 Day Outlook · 2019. 8. 30. · including Miami -Fort Lauderdale (FL), Orlando Kissimmee (FL), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Jacksonville (FL), Savannah