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IBM Centennial Icon of Progress. Alexandria/Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology. Smarter Planet T-shaped People. Reframing the Skeleton & Reframing Progress With Universities. Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected] Innovation Champion and Director IBM UPward - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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© 2012 IBM Corporation
IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)
Reframing the Skeleton & Reframing Progress With Universities
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected] Champion and Director IBM UPward(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)
International Society of Systems SciencesSan Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA, Tuesday July 17, 2012
IBM Centennial Icon of Progress
Alexandria/Egypt-Japan University of Science & TechnologySmarter Planet T-shaped People
2 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Today’s Talk
Introduction: The Big Picture & Systems Thinking– Real World Systems (RWS): Natural Systems & Service Systems
– Some Reading: Gallis, Normann, Deacon, etc.
– Policymaking & Universities as Essential Institutions
Reframing the Skeleton (Boulding)– General Phenomena/Ecology
– Hierarchy Complexity/Evolution
– Specialization/Academic Silos – Slowing Progress
Reframing Progress With Universities– Bounded Rationality & Knowledge Burden
– {Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience}
– University as “Holistic Product-Service Systems”
• Rehearsing Rebuilding Society• Rewinding The Tape of Life (Gould)
3 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Time
ECOLOGY
~14BBig Bang
(NaturalWorld)
~10KCities
(Human-MadeWorld)
sun (energy)
writing(symbols and scribes,
stored memoryand knowledge)
earth(molecules &
stored energy)
written laws(governance and
stored control)
bacteria(single-cell life)
sponges(multi-cell life)
money(governed
transportable valuestored value,
“economic energy”)
universities(knowledge workers)
clams (neurons)trilobites (brains)
printing press (books)steam engine (work)200M
bees (socialdivision-of-labor)
60
transistor(routine
cognitive work)
Evolution of Natural Systems & Service Systems
Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations…To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum
4 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Co-Evolution (Michael Gallis & Associates)
http://www.scribd.com/doc/46259459/Co-Evolution
5 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Quality of Life
Our World and Us
Planetary SystemsNatural Systems Service Systems
Has PartHas Part
Benefits Benefits
CarbonFootprint
(Choices)
Capabilities,Experience
(Choices)
Smarter Service Systems =Complex Systems
That Serve Customers Betterwater, electricity, transportation, education, healthcare, etc.
6 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Normann: Reframing Business
Reframing Business: When the Map Changes the Landscape
Richard Normann Value-Creating Systems
7 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Deacon: Incomplete Nature
Incomplete Nature: How Mind Emerged From Matter
Terrence W. Deacon Thermodynamics ->
Teleodynamics (purpose-driven system dynamics)
Purpose = map
8 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Spohrer et al: Service Science and Policymaking
Three Frameworks for Service Research: Exploring Multilevel Governance in Nested, Networked Systems
Jim Spohrer, Paolo Piciocchi, Clara Bassano
Nested, Networked Systems
9 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
University: Three Missions
Knowledge
– Transfer (Teaching)
– Creation (Research)
– Application (RWS Impact)• Commerce/Entrepreneurship• Governance/Policymaking
Nested Holistic Systems
– Flows
– Development
– Governance
Nation
State/Province
City/Metro
UniversityCollege
K-12
Cultural &ConferenceHotels
HospitalMedical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits
Non-profits
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
Third Mission (Apply to Create Value) is about U-BEEs =
University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
10 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
We Are All Part Of Nested, Networked Systems
Matryoska dolls:Origin Japanese
11 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
I am nested in at least 10 systems
Level AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example
0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim
1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s
2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington
3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land
4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified
5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara
6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County
7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA
8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA
9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA
10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN
April 20, 2012Service Systems, Natural Systems12 © 2012 David Ing
8 levels of living systems (Miller, 1972)
Supranational System
Society
Community
Organization
GroupOrganismOrganCell ... living systems theory (LST) asserts
that all of the great variety of living entities that evolution has produced are complexly structured open systems.
They maintain within their boundaries their thermodynamically improbable energetic states by continuous interactions with their environments.
Inputs and outputs of both matter-energy and information are essential for living systems. The total inputs are lower in entropy and higher in information than the total outputs. [....]
The eight levels of living systems evolved by a process of fray-out (see Figure 1) in which the larger higher-level systems developed increasingly complex components in each subsystem than those below them in the hierarchy of living systems. [....] Fray-out can be likened to the unraveling of a ship's cable
April 20, 2012Service Systems, Natural Systems13 © 2012 David Ing
General System Theory: The Skeleton of Science (Boulding, 1956)
Two possible approaches to organization of general systems theory
suggest themselves, which are to be thought of as complementary rather than competitive, or
at least as two roads each of which is worth exploring.
The first approach is to look over
the empirical universe and pick out
certain general phenomena which are found
in many different disciplines, and to seek to build up
general theoretical models relevant to those phenomena.
The second approach is to arrange
the empirical fields in a hierarchy of complexity
of organization of their basic “individual” or
unit of behavior, and try to develop an abstraction
appropriate to each.
April 20, 2012Service Systems, Natural Systems14 © 2012 David Ing
General System Theory: The Skeleton of Science (Boulding, 1956)
Two possible approaches
The first approach ...pick out
certain general phenomena ...
The second approach ... in a hierarchy of complexity
of organization ...
Some examples of the first approach ....
… the interaction of population can be discussed in terms of competitive, complementary or parasitic relationships ...
… “behavior” of each individual is “explained” by the structure and arrange of the lower individuals of which it is composed, or by certain principles of equilibrium or homeostasis according to
which “states” of the individual are “preferred”.
Some growth phenomena can be dealt with in terms of relatively simple population models .... At the more complex levels,
structural problems become dominant and the complex interrelationships between growth and form are the focus of
interest.
Communication and information processes … are unquestionably essential in the development of organization, both in the
biological and social world.
… may ultimately lead to something like a general field theory of dynamics and interaction.
This, however, is
a long way ahead.
April 20, 2012Service Systems, Natural Systems15 © 2012 David Ing
General System Theory: The Skeleton of Science (Boulding, 1956) Two possible approaches
The first approach ...pick out
certain general phenomena ...
The second approach ... in a hierarchy of complexity
of organization ...
… more systematic, leading to a “system of systems”.
(I) … first level … static structure … level of frameworks.
(ii) … simple dynamic system with predetermined, necessary motions … level of clockworks.
(iii) … control mechanism or cybernetic system … level of the thermostat.
(iv) … “open system,” or self-maintaining structure … life begins to differentiate itself from not-life … level of the cell.
(v) … genetic-societal level … typified by the plant.
(vi) … “animal” level, characterized by increased mobility, teleological behaviour and self-awareness.
(vii) … “human” level … self-consciousness … different from mere awareness.
(viii) … symbolic images and behavior based on them … social organization.
(ix) … transcendental systems … ultimates and absolutes and the inescapable unknowables ...
One advantage … it gives us some idea of the present gaps in both theoretical and empirical knowledge.
16 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)16
T-shaped professionalsdepth & breadth
BREADTH
DE
PT
H
(analytic thinking & problem solving)
Many culturesMany disciplines
Many systems(understanding & communications)
Deep in one d
iscip
line
Deep in one sys
tem
Deep in one cu
lture
17 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Specialization has benefits
Adam Smith:Division of Labor
David Ricardo:Comparative Advantage
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Knowledge: Individuals & Society
Herbert Simon:Bounded Rationality
Ben Jones:Burden of Knowledge
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Technology has a cost
“The burden of knowledge”
Cesar Hidalgo:Societal Knowledge
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The limits of our individual knowledge
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Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly
China Broad Group:30 Stories in 15 Days
22 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Four measures
Innovativeness
Equity
Sustainability
Resiliency
23 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains
World as System of SystemsWorld (light blue - largest)Nations (green - large)States (dark blue - medium)Cities (yellow - small)Universities (red - smallest)
Cities as System of Systems-Transportation & Supply Chain-Water & Waste Recycling-Food & Products ((Nano)-Energy & Electricity-Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)-Buildings & Construction-Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment-Banking & Finance-Healthcare & Family (Bio)-Education & Professions (Cogno)-Government (City, State, Nation)
Nations: Innovation Opportunities- GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)- Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)
Developed MarketNations
(> $20K GDP/Capita)
Emerging MarketNations
(< $20K GDP/Capita)
24 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Universities Worldwide Accelerating Regional Development
“When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
25 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Cities: land-population-energy-carbon
Carlo Ratti:Senseable Cities
26 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What improves Quality-of-Life? Service System Innovations
A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)1. Transportation & supply chain
2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment
3. Food & products manufacturing
4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech
5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)
6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*)
7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)
8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*)
9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)
10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*)
11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)
12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)
13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)
20/10/10
0/19/0
2/7/42/1/1
7/6/11/1/0
5/17/27
1/0/2
24/24/1
2/20/247/10/3
5/2/2
3/3/10/0/0
1/2/2
Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities
* = US Labor % in 2009.
“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”
27 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & BreadthSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities
transportation & supply chain water &
waste
food &products
energy & electricity
building & construction
healthcare& family
retail &hospitality banking
& finance
ICT &cloud
education &work
citysecure
statescale
nationlaws
social sciences
behavioral sciences
management sciences
political sciences
learning sciences
cognitive sciences
system sciences
information sciences
organization sciences
decision sciences
run professions
transform professions
innovate professions
e.g., econ & law
e.g., marketing
e.g., operations
e.g., public policy
e.g., game theory and strategy
e.g., psychology
e.g., industrial eng.
e.g., computer sci
e.g., knowledge mgmt
e.g., stats & design
e.g., knowledge worker
e.g., consultant
e.g., entrepreneur
stake
holders Customer
Provider
Authority
Competitors
resources
People
Technology
Information
Organizations
change History
(Data Analytics)
Future(Roadmap)
value
Run
Transform(Copy)
Innovate(Invent)
Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)
Observe Resource Access (As-Is)
Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)
Realize Value (To-Be)
disciplines
systems
28 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service
Ryan Chin:Urban Mobility
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Self-driving cars
Steve Mahan:Test “Driver”
30 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs: Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worldshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056
Nation
State/Province
City/Region
UniversityCollege
K-12
Cultural &ConferenceHotels
HospitalMedical
Research
Worker(professional)
Family(household)
For-profits
Non-profits
U-BEEJob Creator/Sustainer
U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City
“The future is already here (at universities),it is just not evenlydistributed.”
“The best way topredict the futureis to (inspire the nextgeneration of studentsto) build it better.”
InnovationsUniversities/RegionsCalculus (Cambridge/UK)Physics (Cambridge/UK)Computer Science (Columbia/NY)Microsoft (Harvard/WA)Yahoo (Stanford/CA)Google (Stanford/CA)Facebook (Harvard/CA)
31 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?
Economics & Law
Design/ Cognitive Science Systems
Engineering
OperationsComputer Science/
Artificial Intelligence
Marketing
“a service system is ahuman-made system to improve provider-customer interactionsand value-cocreation outcomes,
by dynamically configuring resourceaccess via value propositions,
most often studied by many disciplines,one piece at a time.”
“service science isthe transdisciplinary study of
service systems &value-cocreation”
The ABC’s:The provider (A)
and a customer (B)transform a target (C)
32 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
A Framework for Global Civil Society
Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society.
– John Sexton, President NYU
33 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA
Upcoming Conferences– July 2012
• ISSS San Jose• HSSE San Francisco
More Information– Blog
• www.service-science.info– Twitter
• @JimSpohrer– Presentations
• www.slideshare.net/spohrer– Email
34 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Thank-You! Questions?
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerInnovation Champion & Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) [email protected]
“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU
“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson
“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer
“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov“Think global, act local.” – Geddes
35 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
IBM operates in 170 countries around the globe
IBM has 426,000 employees worldwide
2011 Financials Revenue - $ 106.9B Net Income - $ 15.9B EPS - $ 13.44 Net Cash - $16.6B
22% of IBM’s revenue in Growth Market countries; growing at 11% in 2011
Number 1 in patent generation for 19 consecutive years ; 6,180 US patents awarded in 2011
More than 40% of IBM’s workforce conducts business away from an office
5 Nobel Laureates
9 time winner of the President’s National Medal of Technology & Innovation - latest award for Blue Gene Supercomputer
“Let’s Build a Smarter Planet"
The Smartest Machine On Earth
100 Years of Business & Innovation in 2011
IBM’s Leadership Changes
55% of IBM’s Workforce is New to the company in the last 5 years
36 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
AEIOU of sciences – service science
Abstract Entities – service systems– Learning to apply knowledge to compete & cooperate
Interactions – value propositions Outcome Universals – value-cocreation (or not)
– Increasing capabilities and quality-of-life for individuals
Cities compete & cooperate Universities compete & cooperate
37 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Installation DeploymentIrruption
The Industrial Revolution
Age of Steam and Railways
Age of Steel, Electricityand Heavy EngineeringAge of Oil, Automobilesand Mass ProductionAge of Information and Telecommunications
Frenzy Synergy Maturity
Panic1797
Depression
1893
Crash
1929
Credit Crisis 2008
Coming period ofInstitutional Adjustment and Production Capital
1
2
3
4
5
Panic1847
1771
1829
1875
1908
1971
1873
1920
1974
1829
Crash
•Formation of Mfg. industry
•Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade
•Standards on gauge, time•Catalog sales companies •Economies of scale
•Urban development•Support for interventionism
•Build-out of Interstate highways
•IMF, World Bank, BIS
Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).
~250 years of infrastructure transformations
38 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
~100 years of US job transformations
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis
39 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
We need better frameworks, theories, and models of…
Four I’s– Infrastructure
– Individuals
– Institutions
– Information
Four Measures– Innovativeness
– Equity
– Sustainability
– Resiliency
Societal Infrastructure(Technologies & Environment)
Individuals(Skills)
Institutions(Rules, Jobs)
Cultural Information(Quality-of-Life Measures)
40 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge
L
LearningTo Apply Knowledge
Exploitation Exploration
Run Transform Innovate
Operations
Maintenance
Insurance
Incremental
Radical
Super-Radical
Internal
External
Interaction
Copy It
Invent ItDo It
March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87.Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.
41 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
California Human Development Report 2011:From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life…. http://w
ww
.measureofam
erica.org/docs/AP
ortraitOfC
A.pdf
42 © 2012 IBM CorporationIBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development)
Imagining quality-of-life innovations…
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What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities…
Kurzweilai.net