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1
Indonesia Economic Development
and Prospects
Indonesia Economic DevelopmentIndonesia Economic Development
and Prospectsand Prospects
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti
Coordinating Minister For Economic Affairs
Keynote Address
“Surveying the Future – Contributions to
Economic, Environmental and Social Development”
JW Marriott Hotel – Jakarta
Prof. Dr. Dorodjatun KuntjoroProf. Dr. Dorodjatun Kuntjoro--JaktiJakti
Coordinating Minister For Economic AffairsCoordinating Minister For Economic Affairs
Keynote AddressKeynote Address
“Surveying the Future “Surveying the Future –– Contributions to Contributions to
Economic, Environmental and Social Development”Economic, Environmental and Social Development”
JW Marriott Hotel JW Marriott Hotel –– JakartaJakarta
1 2
REFORMS HAVE ACHIEVED SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS
Main AreasMain Areas Key MilestonesKey Milestones Remaining ChallengesRemaining Challenges ProgressProgress
Macroeconomic Macroeconomic StabilityStability
Legal and Legal and judiciary reformjudiciary reform
MicroeconomicMicroeconomicSectorSector
•• Amendment to 1945 ConstitutionAmendment to 1945 Constitution•• Law for Independent courts under MALaw for Independent courts under MA•• Anti corruption, money launderingAnti corruption, money laundering•• 7 new courts7 new courts
Political reformPolitical reform
No progress
-- Macroeconomic stabil ityMacroeconomic stabil ity-- Economic/Financial reformsEconomic/Financial reforms-- improved Debt Managementimproved Debt Management-- New laws, regulations and institutionNew laws, regulations and institution
•• Completion of IBRA, sold almost 400,000 Completion of IBRA, sold almost 400,000 accounts back to the marketaccounts back to the market•• Completion of JITF, restructuring Completion of JITF, restructuring
US$20.5bn of private debtUS$20.5bn of private debt•• Solve Liquidity Credit issue with BISolve Liquidity Credit issue with BI
•• Deregulations of key sectors: Deregulations of key sectors: energy, telecom, banking, energy, telecom, banking, transportationtransportation
•• National Team for Exports and InvNational Team for Exports and Inv•• OneOne--roof service for Investmentroof service for Investment
•• One of most democratic system in One of most democratic system in AsiaAsia
•• Freest press in SE AsiaFreest press in SE Asia•• Freedom of expressionFreedom of expression
•• Maintain stabil ity in the long runMaintain stabil ity in the long run
•• Remaining assets transferred to PPARemaining assets transferred to PPA
Full progress
•• Contradictory lawsContradictory laws•• Judiciary systems tainted withJudiciary systems tainted with
issues of corruptionissues of corruption
•• Better balanced b/w central and Better balanced b/w central and regional powersregional powers•• Improved industrial relationsImproved industrial relations
Bank and Debt Bank and Debt RestructuringRestructuring
•• Improved image and Improved image and investment climateinvestment climate
•• Global and regional conditionsGlobal and regional conditions
3
MUCH IMPROVED MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
1.2**1.91.73.5Budget Deficit (% GDP)
4.8**4.5*3.73.4Economic Growth (%)
10,452
28.02
-11.0
17.62
12.55
2001
8,500**8,4659,375Rupiah/USD
34.9****36.2532.04Foreign Exchange Reserves (billion USD)
7.0** 5.23.4Non-oil and non-gas exports growth (%)
7.42***8.3112.99SBI one-month rate (%)
6.50**5.0610.03Inflation (%)
200420032002
*) 2000 Base Year **) Government’s Target ***) As of 13 August 20044
MUCH IMPROVED FINANCIAL RISK INDICATORS
7.99.3-21.8Rupiah fluctuation to USD (y-o-y),
(- : depreciation)
67.781.287.7Public Debt (% GDP)
7.06.65.9Foreign Exchange Reserves in months of imports and debt amortization
B+CCC+CCCGovernment’s Debt Rating (S&P)
58.112.4-17.9Change in Jakarta Composite Index
(y-o-y)
200320022001
5
Indonesia: Negara Kepulauan Terbesar di Dunia
1. Memiliki wilayah laut terluas (5,8 juta km2) dan jumlah pulau terbanyak (17.508).
2. Panjang Kepulauan Indonesia dari ujung ke ujung sama dengan jarak dari Dublin keMoscow.
3. Panjang pantai di Indonesia mencakup 81.000 km dan merupakan kedua terpanjang didunia setelah Canada, namun merupakan pantai tropis terpanjang di dunia.
4. Selain itu luas laut dalam (inner sea) Indonesia mencakup 2/3 luas Laut Tengah.6
Potensi Sumber Daya Alam Indonesia
� Panjang garis pantai > 81,000 km
� 17,508 pulau
� 5.8 juta km2 luas laut (3x luasdaratan)
� 37% species dunia
� Pusat keanekaragaman tropis dunia(> 70 genus dr karang, 18% terumbukarang dunia ada di Indonesia)
� 30% hutan bakau dunia ada diIndonesia
� Tempat padang lamun dan kimaterbanyak
� 90% hasil tangkapan ikan berasaldari perairan pesisir dalam 12 mil laut dari pantai.
Kekayaan Alam Indonesia yang sebagian besar terletak di Kawasan Timur:
2
7 7
INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING ROUTE
4 SLOCs• MALACCA : 3 NAVIES JOINT PATROL
• SUNDA
• LOMBOK
• OMBAI - WETAR
8
Volcanic Belt Throughout Indonesia
Volcanic Zones Fault Zones
Subduction Zones 8
9
Around 130 active volcanoes in Indonesia
9 10
TRADE VALUE AMONG REGIONS(USD Billion, 2001)
10
11
Maritime Transport Trend 1960 - 1990
11
± 40% ofWorld Tonnage
± 25% ofWorld Tonnage
12
Oil & Gas Cargo
12
3
13
MALACCA STRAIT:
MORE THAN 30% OF WORLD CARGO TRAFFIC
20,66519,46815,974SUBTOTAL OF TANKERS
59,31455,96743,965TOTAL REPORTING TRAFFIC
38,64936,49927,991ALL OTHER TRAFFIC
35%35%36%PERCENTAGE OF TANKERS
3,0862,9622,473LNG / LPG
14,27613,34311,474CRUDE / PRODUCT TANKERS
3,3033,1632,027VLCC/DEEP DRAUGHT VESSELS
200120001999BASED ON VESSEL TRAFFIC SYSTEM (PER DAY)
Source : MARINE DEPARTMENT PENINSULAR MALAYSIA 13 14
ROUTE TANKER DI PERAIRAN INDONESIA
15
ARUS LAUT INDONESIA (ARLINDO)
Merupakan bagian dari conveyor belt yang mengelilingi dunia.16
Ocean Conveyor Belt System
INSTANT Program
17
Indonesian Indonesian ThroughflowThroughflow (ITF) Pathway (ITF) Pathway from Pacific Ocean to Indian Oceanfrom Pacific Ocean to Indian Ocean
18
Sumber: Dep. Kelautan dan Perikanan
POTENSI DAN PRODUKSI IKANTahun 2001
4
19
INDONESIA METAL MINERALS DEPOSIT, 2003
Bauxite
Gold
Gold Placer
Nickel
Iron Sand
Silver
Cooper
Tin
Manggan
NOTES
20
186.86
111.21
956.81
649.67
1,259.90270.08
308,30
1,247.50
136.01
ACEH
CENTRALSUMATERA
SOUTH
SUMATERA
IRIAN JAYA
PROVEN OIL RESERVE (MMB)
NATUNA
EAST JAVA
INDONESIA OIL RESERVE
(Status 1 January 2003)
EAST
KALIMANTAN
NORTH SUMATERA
WEST JAVA
7.47
MALUKU
7.47
21
9.78
1.13
6.83
14.10
7.195.48
54.21
49.27
0.62
19.53
ACEH
CENTRAL
SUMATERA
SOUTH
SUMATERASOUTH
SULAW ESI
EAST
KALIMANTAN
IRIAN JAYA
GAS RESERVE (TSCF)
NATUNA
EAST JAVA
INDONESIA GAS RESERVE(Status 1 January 2003)
NORTH
SUMATERA
WEST JAVA
22
5.0
12.2
55.1
9.3
ACEH
CENTRAL
SUMATERA
SOUTH
SUMATERA
EAST
KALIMANTAN
COAL RESERVE (%)
10.6SOUTH
KALIMANTAN
INDONESIA COAL RESOURCES(Status 1 January 2003)
23
RESOURCES ( MWe ) RESERVE (MWe)LOCATION
SPECULATIVE HYPOTETIC POSSIBLE PROBABLE PROVEN
SUMATRA 5,705 2,433 5,419 15 499
JAVA - BALI 2,300 1,611 3,088 603 1,727
NUSA TENGGARA 150 438 631 14
SULAWESI 1,000 125 632 110 65
MALUKU / IRIAN 325 117 142 - -
Total 251 locations
9,530 4,714 9,912 728 2,305
14,244 12,945
-
KALIMANTAN 50 ----
Total : 27,189
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
Total 807 MWe
2
785
20
24
PenataanRuang
PengembanganInfrastruktur
PengembanganWilayah/Ekonomi
PENGEMBANGAN INFRASTRUKTUR DAN PENATAAN RUANG
BKTRN
KKPPI
BP-KAPET
5
25 26
KERUSAKAN HUTAN DI SUMATERA BAGIAN SELATAN
Sumber: Global Forest Watch
27
Zona Penyangga Hijau (Green Belt)
Permukiman Kota
KONSEP
PENATAAN
KAWASAN
SURABAYA RAYA
Kawasan Perekonomian
GRESIK
KAMAL
SURABAYA
PO RO NG
KRIAN
CERME
MALANG
SEMARANG
BANGKALAN
YOGYAKARTA
28
SURAMADU BRIDGE
FIRST INTER ISLAND BRIDGE
Connected Java – Madura
5 km span with cable stayed, finish by 2007
28
29
ARTIST IMPRESSION
PELABUHAN BOJONEGARA
30
To Europe
To USA
Proposed Bojonegoro As National Hub Port
TANJUNG
PRIOKBOJONEGARA
To EUROPE
30
6
31
RENCANA JARINGAN ASIA HIGHWAY
32
PRIORITAS PEMBANGUNAN JALAN TOL DI PULAU JAWA
SurabayaSampang
BangkalanPamekas an
Pamekas an
Kalianget
Merak
Serang
Pandeglang
JAKARTA
Bogor
Bandung
BekasiCikampek
SumedangSukabumi
CirebonPemal ang Semarang Kudus
Yogjakarta
Ngawi
Mojokerto
Malang
ProbolinggoPanarukan
Banyuwangi
Bondowoso Bajulmati
Gresik
Tuban
Bojonegoro
Lamongan
Caruban
Madiun Kertosono
Batang
PurwokertoWonosobo
Cilacap
Kebumen
Kuningan
Garut
Tasikmal ayaSindangbarang
Dawuan
Subang
Pacitan
WonogiriPonorogo
Labuhan
Pejagan
Tangerang
Gempol
Gempol- Pandaan (14 km)
Probolinggo-Banyuwngi 156 km)
Gempol- Pasuruan (32 km)
Solo-Mantingan (58 km)
Kertosono-Mojokerto (38 km)
Pemalang-Batang (35 km)
Semarang-Batang (75 km)
Semarang-Bawen (22 km)
Semarang-Demak (58 km)Cirebon-Pejagan (34 km)
Pejagan-Pemalang (56 km)
Yogja-Solo (45 km)
Dawuan-Palimanan (24,5 km)
Subang-Dawuan (52,5 km)
Sukabumi-Ciranjang (31 km)
Cileunyi-Sumedang-Dawuan(Thp I : Cileunyi-Sumedang (25 km))
Cikampek-Padalarang (52 km)
Pandaan-Malang (30 km)
SS Waru -Tj. Perak (13,5 km)
Waru (Aloha)-Tj. Perak (18,4 km)
Pasuruan-Probolinggo (40 km)
Mojokerto-Surabaya (37 km)
JORR (SeksiE2, E3, N (19,2 km))
JORR 2 (157 km)
Ciawi-Sukabumi (54 km)
JORR (Seksi W1 (9,8 km))
Cikampek-Subang (37 km)
Bogor Ring Road (10,5 km)
Ciranjang-Padalarang (33 km)
Jembt. Suramadu (5,44 km)
Jalan Tol Operasi
Rencana Jalan Tol
Jalan Arteri
Keterangan :
Purwakart a
Ciawi
Cianjur
Padalarang
Demak
Surakarta
Pandaan
Pasuruan
Mantingan - Ngawi (27 km)
Bawen-Solo (58 km)
Ngawi-Kertosono (84 km)
33
NATIONAL AIRPORT AND SERVICES
33 34
KETAPING AIRPORT
34
New airport in West Sumatra
35
ASIAN RAILWAY THROUGH INDONESIA
35 36
5,212,492,72Distribution (200,000 Km)
6,234,202,03Rural Electrification
(8,800 locations)
29,0913,6015,29Total
2,070,841,23Sub Station (50,000 MVA)
1,440,870,57Transmission (17,000 Km)
14,145,208,94Generation (17,500 MW)
IndonesiaOutside
JAMALI
JAMALI
(Java-Madura-
Bali)
Electricity Facilities
ELECTRICITY INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT 2003 – 2010 (Billion USD)
7
37
Integrated Indonesian Gas Transmission Systems
38
A STRATEGY IN THE MAKING
• EXISTING GROWTH AREAS : Jawa, Bali, East-Coast Sumatera, East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, etc.
• CROSS BORDER AND COOPERATION AREAS : BIMP-EAGA, IMT-GT, IMS-GT, AIDA
THE PULL IS STILL EAST ASIA
NEXT 20 YEARS: SYDNEY – DARWIN ?
38
39
Sub Regional Cooperation in East Asia
39 40
TRANSHIPMENT & HUB PORT IN EAST ASIA & PACIFIC
Trade TransactionIn Pacific
Tokyo-Yokohama-KobeSeoul-Incheon-Busan
Taipei-KaoshiungHongkong-Macau-Shenzhen
Manila-Subic-Clark
Singapura/
Tjg Pelepas
Sidney-Melbourne
Labuan
40
41
NEW RAILWAY TRACKFROM DARWIN
TO ALICE SPRING
DARWIN: THE NEW MARITIME HUB
41 42
Jakarta, 4 October 2004
Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian
Alamat situs Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian:www.ekon.go.id
Thank You