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Reflections on the L'Aquila verdictA candid risk assessment of the role of the Earth Scientist and some suggestions for risk management
R Bretton, J Gottsmann, R Christie, W Aspinall, S Sparks
Richard Bretton (for correspondence)PhD StudentSchool of Earth [email protected]
7 March 2013
Safer Science 1/7
"How to practise Safer S…cience“
4 April 20096.3…309…1,500…20,000…65,000…6+1
Richard BrettonPhD StudentSchool of Earth [email protected]
7 March 2013
Safer Science 2/7
“Scientists involved in natural hazard assessment must clarify with their employer or the organization they are accountable or report to, just what is expected of them, what their level of responsibility is, and what the chain of command and reporting protocols are between them as scientists and the civil and government authorities they work with.
Without establishing such an agreed….understanding, such scientists are vulnerable and quite frankly, in the modern world of litigation, they would be foolish” IAVCEI 28.10.12 Richard BrettonPhD StudentSchool of Earth [email protected]
7 March 2013
Safer Science 3/7
UnmitigatedRisk
Vulnerability
Exposure
Hazard Assessment – Earth ScientistsSafer Science 4/7
7 March 2013
HazardMonitoring (long- & short-term)
Hazard assessments
Hazard maps/zoning
Hazard communication
Any input to Risk assessment & management
processes
Any other services given
Unmitigated RiskWorry, hassle, time wastage
Loss of reputation, job, incomePayment of compensation/fines/costs
Imprisonment
VulnerabilityFreedom of Information/Participatory governance
Public scrutiny/Press & Social mediaBlame shifting/External pressures
No or inadequate:Contract/Role specification
Duty & Standard of care limitation/InsuranceProfessional backing
Records/Training
ExposureAll who offer these services
(whether they are paid or not)
Risk Assessment – Earth ScientistsSafer Science 5/7
7 March 2013
Hazard assessment
Mitigation
Mitigated Risk
Risk Management – Earth Scientists
Risk Vulnerability Mitigation
Contract Written, Capacity (indiv. or rep.), Governing law & jurisdiction, Independent, Impartial, Time, Resources, Insurance provided/required, Indemnity
Role/Responsibilities specification
As a member/ as a committee (ad hoc/statutory/makeup/infrastructure) Input, Processes, Output (evidence-based, format, content, timing, updating), to whom reporting NEVER STRAY OUTSIDE YOUR OWN EXPERTISE
Duty/standard of care Accept the duty – Know the standard - Define constraints – time, resources, data, assumptions, uncertainty, models, processes Exclude/limit/cap liability in contract/negligence + immunity from prosecution
Insurance What is available at a reasonable cost? – cap liability at or below limit
Professional backing AGU, IAVCEI, IASPEI, ICEFCP etc. Guidance - not full representative backing
Records Keep contemporaneous records of input, deliberations, reasons, output
Training Communicating - with media and public – uncertainty - terminology
Risk Exposure Mitigation
Full range of services Offer no or less services
Safer Science 6/77 March 2013
"…you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?"
Harry Callahan in Dirty Harry
Safer Science 7/7
7 March 2013
Don't be “foolish” & rely on luck…please practise Safer Science!
