Malaysian Journal of Library & llifonnation Science, VoL 6, no.1, Jrtly 2001: 57-70

REFERENCE CURVE FOR INDIAN ROLE MODEL SCIENTIST*

tV. L. Kalyane 1 , V. K. Madan :z and Vijai Kumar

1 Library alld Infonnation Services Division2 Electronics Division

Bhabha Atomic Research Ce1ltl.eTiombay, Mumbai-400 085, l11dia

E-mail: vijai@magnum. barc.ernet.invlk@magnum. barc.emet. in

vkmadan@apsara. barc.emet. in

ABSTRACT

A database on eminent Indian role model scientists (Homi Jehangir Bhabha,Pushpa Mittro; Bhatgava. Chittranjan R. Bhatia, Satyendra Nath Rose,Rajagopala Chidambaram, Virendra Lal Chopra, Padmanabha KrishnagopalaIyengar, Ramaswamy Hariharan Iyer, Shyam Sunder Kapoor, KariamanikkamSrinivasa Krish,'tan, Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis, L.L. Narayana, JajantVishnu Narlikar, Chandrashekhar Venkata Raman,Raja Ramahna, K. Ramiah.Rant Gopal Rastogi, G.M Reddy, Vinodini Reddy, Meghnad Saha, VikramAmbalal Sarabhai, Monkombu Sambasivan Swaminathan and C.S. Venkata

Ram) was created with their number of publications during five-year periodsstarting from the first publication year, and it was processedfor their centraltendencies, in order to develop the quadratic equation employing:LYi = a 11+ b

LXj -f- c LX; , LXiYj = a l:Xi + b LX; + c l:Xi3; and LXi2yj = a 2:J(; + b 2:J(j3 + c

LXi4 ( where Xi and Y; are" the observed year and cumulative publicationsrespectively; and a, b, and c are constants of the fitted eqllation y=a+bx+cxl )to better fit a reference curve of expected values. Median values gave the bestcurve fit. Quinquenniumwise (Q) number of publications expected in the medianof Indian role model scientist are:QI=ll , QII=17, QIII=19, QIV=20, QV = 22,

QVl =22, QVlI=23, and QVlII=25.

Keywords: Scientomelrics~ Bio-bibliometrics~ History of science~ Sociology ofscience~ Role model scientists~ Reference national role model scientist; Developingcountries~ Referepce curve fitting~ Publication pr.oductivity~ Science of science

INTRODUCTION

Krislula ( 1991) propounded vaguely that "most of tile developing countries lacklocal 'role models' to motivate other scientists", 111 order to understalld tilemultidimeusional aspects of tllis problem, consistent efforts were directedt'Jwards scientometric allalysis of reputed Indian scientists (Kademani, Kalyane

.This paper is dedicated to Homi Jehangir Bhabha

{(alyane, V.L., Madan, V K. and Vijai Kulnar

and Balakrishnan, 1994~ Kademani, Kalyane and Kademani, 1994; Kademaniand Kalyane, 1996a; Kademani and Kalyane, 1996b; Kademani, Kalyane andKademani, 1996a; Kademani and Kalyane, 1998; Kademani, Kalyane andKumar, 2000; Kalyane, 1992; Kalyalle and Kalyane, 1993; Kalyalle-, 1994;Kalyane and Kalyane, 1994; Kalyalle and Devarai, 1994; Kalyane and.Kademani, 1994; Kalyane, 1995; Kalyalle alld Samallta, 1995; Kalyalle andKademani, 1995; Kalyane, 1995; Kalyalle alld Sen,1998) and a scientist ofIndiall origin (Kademani, Kalyalle and Kademani, 1996b). Similar scientometricportraits on a few foreign scientists (Kademani, Kalyalle and Jallge, 1999;Kalyalle alld Munrolli, 1995; Kalyane allU Sen, 1996, Kalyalle and Kademani,1997) were also published. Database on a single research institute was welldocumented (Kalyane and Kalyane, 1991; Kalyane and Vidyasagar, 1992,Kalyane and Kalyane, 1994b; Kalyane and Kalyane, 1996), and it wasdemonstrated that studies on single journal (Kalyane and Sen, 1995) or a singletopic (Kalyane, 1993; Venkataramana, Kalyalle and MuIUlolli, 1994) can alsohighlight contributions of scientists of the country .

Objectives of the present study are: .(a) to calculate central tendencies on tiie number of observed publications by

lndiatl role model scientists per quinquennium;(b) to develop quadratic equations useful for tile estimation of tile expected

values tilrough curve fitting; a1ld(c) to plot t1le observed and tile estimated values in a growtl1 curve.

MA TERIAL'S

TIle present pilot stud)' observes the pul>licatioll productivity of the followingIndiall role model scientists: t : V. Ratna1l, K. Ratniah, S .N .~ose, P .C .Mallalallobis, Meglulad Saha, K.S. Kris.lulail, H.J. Bhabha, alld VikramSarabhai, who had their first publication during India's pre-independence era;aswell as P.M. Bhargava, Raja Rama111la, M.S: Swaminathan, C.S. VenkataRarn, R.G. Rastogi, P.K. Iyengar, L.L. Narayana, R. Chidambaram, V.L.Chopra, R.H. Iyer, Vinodini Reddy, C.R. Bhatia, S.S. Kapoor, Jayant Narlikarand G.M. Reddy, who had started tlleir lives as scientists and their firstpublication were published during India's post-independence period.

METHODS

Indian role model scientists were randomly selected in order to include alldiversified researcll domains (see Appendix), It is assumed that tlleir scientificcareer begi~ls ( origi.l year) wiLl1 the first research publication auilioredindependently or in collaboratirnl to eilable batch.protessing of the five yearly(quinquennial) output of observations on llurnber of publications by each

58

Reference Cun'e for Indian Role Model Scienti.JtJ

scientist under consideration. 111e database generates the normal count procedure(Kalyane and Vidyasagar Rao, 1995), where one full score credit is given, foreach author regardless of their first or last position in the byline.

Central tendencies were calculated based on observed data for the numberof publications per quinquennium. A .statistical average (mean) of data valuesis calculated by dividing the sum of all values by the l1umber of values. 1ltemean value typifies a set of numbers. 'Ole Inean In for 11 values is calculated bytlte fonnula:

n

Lxl

~m . "

The mode is tile most frequently occurring number of a set of numbers. TIlemedian is useful when extreme values in tile data distort tile mean or the average.TIle median is detennined by ranking the data values in ascending or descendingorder and tllen selecting tile middle value, specifically, the quantity or value ofthat item is so positioned in the series, tilat tilere are equal number of items ofgreater magnitude and lesser magnitude. A mathematical curve was fitted toarrive at the estimated values.

Curve Fitting Theory

Let the observed data be {Xi, Yi} ..It is fitted to a quadratic equation y =a+bx+cx2 where, a, b, and c are constants. TIle number of observed data points(n) should exceed two to enable tile curve fitting procedure. In practice n shouldbe considerably large. Let tile sum of error squares be S.

s = Le( = L (a + bXi+ c:\:'i2- rj )2

11le following equations were obtaii1ed by partial differentiation with respect to

a, b, and c.

Sa = L2 (a + ~ + ~2- rj )

SI1 = L2 (a + bXi + cXi2- fj) X

= L2 (a + bXi + c.-'(j2- fj ) Xi2Sc

Setting tIle partial derivatives to zero aJld simplifyil1g we get three equations

witll three unknowns as follows:

LYj = a n + b LXi + c LX?

LXiYj = a LXi + b LXi2 + c LXiJ

~2yi= a ~2+ b LXiJ+ c LXi4

11le above simultaneous equations CaJl be solved by metllods like Gauss-Jordan.

59

';-"~":C~~~,.--

Kalyone, Y.L., Madan,. y; K. and V"ljai Ku!"ar

Appl.icatioD or the Curve Fitting Theory

It is assumed that there are zero publications prior to t1le first paper publicationyear or aI:1Y individual scientist. T1lis is realistic as one has to pass dtrough alatent plwe or conducting research prior to the observable event of the firstpublication-in order to prove ones WOrtll as a scientist. After curve fitting ~yusing tlle above realistic data, tlle first value at zero years was removed forfurtller calculations by retaining t1le rest of tlle °actually observed data (Dodesand Greitzer, 1964 alld Singer, 1964).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Table 1 documents the observed and estimated mean, mode, and median numberofpubli~tions by a random sample of Indian role model scientists.111e table has-

rounded up figures for both the observed and ~stimated values. The estimatedvalues were obtained by a quadratic equation fit to nine periods, each of fivey~s (quinquennium) duration. 111e constants a, b, and c had high pre:cision.

Tablel: The MeaI}, Mode and Medial} Number of Publicatiol1S Published by theII1dial1 Role Model Scientists .

Table 2 gives tile COI1Stallts a, b, and c for each central tendency" with precisionup to the second decimal place.

Table 2: Parameters of the Fitted Equation for the Indian Role Model Scientists

60

Reference Curve far Indian Role Model Scientists

The values of ~ b, and c can be used in the proposed equations to compare theperformance of an individual Indian scientist. nle cumulative values of theobserved and expected central tendencies from Table 1 were used for graphicalrepresentation and shown in Figure

Figure I: Mean, Mode and Median Number of Publications by Indian RoleModel Scientists

220MEAN

A OBSE;RVED

-'V'-ESTIMA TED

(/)co

.~ro

.~

.c:3

0.-0'-<1)

.c

E:J

z

<1)>

:p~:3

E:J

U

';7

/Q200

180MOOE

B OBSERVEO

e ESTIMA TEOr4f160 *

/0MEDIAN

e OBSERVED

, ESTIMA TED

140

dt'

/

120

100

,I-I'eo

60

40

20

0

II. I. 1 'I. I' I. I.. I. I5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Years

0

Of 1.l1e tllree central tendencies considere~ it was observed tilat tIle median curvedisplayed tile least fitting error. It is tilerefore suggested tilat tile observed valuesof all Indian scientist's productivity be compared witll the estimated values oftile mediaIl. If his/lIef perfonnaIlCe compares favourably with the estimatedmedian values, tilen the scientist may be considered as following all l1ldiai1 rolemodel scientist. :nlis is taken as tile most simplified version of the complexrelationsltip between science, scientist and the contemporary scientific society.

61

Kalyane, V:L., Madan, V. K. and Vijai Kumar

Suggestions

A researcher is considered good if he or she surpasses the expectations of whathe or she might achieve. But tllis is only possible if the fQcuS is on. work and theproblems involved, and not on competition or success. Tlle effectiveness ofresearch or of running all institution depends primarily on tile researcher hiniseif,on his models, the environment witllin the institute itself, and on tile respect tieshows his staff members, which, in turn, enables him to demand that they workto capacity (Maier -Leib~itz, 1992). Scientists of all disciplines should learnfrom tile humanities.

111 a personal correspondence West (1995) expressed,"11le only factor I can thil1k of that to a great extent dictates tile workrate and the nature of publication of scientists, which you have notmentioned is the nature of their employment and the differentenvironmer.ts in which they may work" from time to time. For example,at al1 early age in academe while tlley are finding tlleir way in research,and deciding which routes tlley will follow, tlleir publication rate islikely to be lower tl1an wl~en tlley Imve established these factors. Bytile time tlley have reached mid career tlley may well have been forcedby tile economics of doing research to spend much of their otllerwiseproductive time chasing funding orgal1izations for money forequipment and research giaJits for postgraduate or postdoctoral co-workers. .Yet again, later ill tlleir career tlley may have transferred fromUniversity to State or Natioilal Research Institute where for example,reasons of confidentiality or other considerations such as nationalsecurity, increasing administrative responsibility and so on, it maybecome increasiligly difficult for them to publish or even to keep upwitll the accelerating pace of innovation in technology and even inSOn1e cases new scientific concepts.

1llen of course much depends on the country in which they can or areable to do their work. I. believe for example tllat it was much easier todo research in my country (UK) tl1an in yours (India). Also, I believetllat it was easier to do reasonably good research in the 60's tllan intile 80's in'the UK and in. many other teclmologically advat1cedcountries. 1llis was due to pu.blic and governmental perceptions of tl1erole tllat science had to play ip tile community. On the other hand intile 70-90's tile increasinp, availability. of computational fa~iliiies,

microelectronics, communic~tion, etc. (alld advan~es in technologygenerally) made adVat1ces easi~r thatl previously.

However, I have to say tlmlIdo not know how it may be possible (if atall) even to quantify for suclt criteria in order to compare 'productivity'

62

Reference (ur,'efiJr /Jrdian Role Model Scie,"i.u.\"

or 'scientific capability' so that such factors may be taken into accountin comparative assessment of individuals working in different sciences,different eras and .different communities".

nle duty of scientists and technologists is not only. to conduct their. own .work atthe highest possible level of quality but also to make the societies in which theylive more aware of tile powers alld climate of science. Since, by definition,scientists and technologists are tIle first to k11O\V of scientific advances, tlley canbe described as ti1e cartographers of tIle future. .11ley must work to ensure tllattile public, and especially tIle public's leaders, understand tIle maps tlley dra\vand tIle options tllat are available and sustainable, so tllat \vise democraticdecisions Call be taken (Dainton, 1992).

Forecasting

111e proposed method has applications and implications in forecasting. If youngIndian scientists has shown promise by foilowing at least the median estimatedcurve for the first three quinquennia, then tile scientists has potential to becomerole model scientists. Hence, such scientists should be identified and nurtured toenable them to excel by outperforming their own past record and possiblysurpassing the records of previous role models of the country .Thus, there is adynamic performance scope incorporated in the model for future considerations.

Limitations

It is assumed that publication productivity of a role model scientist motivatesyounger colleagues to collaborate or emulate. 1lle present pilot study is limitedto only Indial1 role model scientists al1d their qualllitative outputs of publications,may be only one of the many possible factors that motivate young scientists.However, the number of publications still remaills possibly th~ most importantmeasurable parameter. One of the first writers to suggest the number of researchpapers as a scientific measure of research productivity was Nobel laureateShockley !(1951).. Confidential research efforts remain unpublished and hence,unobserved in the present study. Presently, tilere is no recommended method toquantify tI1e time and efforts involved in developmental activities such as,organising research facilities, research planning, research management, teaching,etc., as equivalent to a research publication. 1llerefore, tile scientists engaged indevelopmental activities (fully or simultalleously) are not visible on publicationrecords.

Similar to the 80/20 rule (Egghe, 1986), the focus of the present study is on the20 percent of tile scientists who contribute up to 80 percent of tile total researchproductiyity in an organisalion. Perhaps no number of molivator(s) will be

63

Kolyone. ~L., Modo", ~ K. a"d Vijai Ku,nar

et1ough to motivate about 80 percent of tl1e sciel1tists who contribute only 20percent of the total publication productivity. Voltaire remarked tl1at, "even ifGod did not exist, it would be necessary to invent Him". To tllis statement,Palldit Jawallarlal Nehru responded that "there is sometllil1g also in the reverseptoposition: even if God exists, it may be desirable not to look up to Him or torely upon Him". (Kalyane and Samanta, 1993).

So far motivation tileories propounded by Maslow (1954), Herzberg et al.(1959),McGregor (1960), Vroom (1964), French, et at (1965, 1966), Likert (1967),Basset and Mayer ( 1968), Porter and Lawler ( 1968), Smitll Wid Cranny ( 1968),Lowin ( 1968), Locke ( 1970), Lyons ( 1971 ), have unconsciously neglected theexemplary role model as a source of inspiration and motivation, Moreover, rolemodel exemplar perfonnance as an input to inspire and motivate does not requireally financial commitments on tile organisation. What is required is to show thatif your colleague can do it, you too can do it, perhaps in a better way. Tllis canbe called as "show how of the know how" .This is exactly the situation where weneed the 'local role model' concept.

Biographies and autobiographies have influenced many individuals generationafter generation. For tllat matter, even imaginary characters in a play, drama, andnovel also influenc~ tllought process as well as a source of motivation. It istllerefore natural that tile number of papers published in national or internationalchannels of communication constitutes the 1Ilajor output of tile life of a scientist,as science is an ever flowing and continuous process of knowing the truth.Hence, this area of how 'local role model scientist' can promote researchproductivit)' needs further research.

Proposal

(a) Further research is necessary to establish the equivalent (conversion factors)of a quantum of developmental activity with a research publication. .

(b) Quality aspects (ci~tion data, citer motivation, peer review, etc.) may beincorporated in the resear~h evaluation.

(c) Developing countries having similar science and tecll11ology status and goalsmay be identified, and it may be interesting to explore the possibilities ofestablishing a developing countf)' regional role model reference scientistcurve.

CONCLUSION

The present pilot study has indicated that it is possible to develop a model on theperfonnance ora role model.scientist ofa co-untry. Every developing countf)' hasher own priorities and protocols of research and development. Hence, each

64

Reference C'lrJ'e fQrindialf Role MQdel Scientift.f

J

country should develop its own role model. 'rIlere are many role models indeveloping countries. Wllat is lacking is a proper documentation and systematicstudy on them. Every. developing country should develop their own nationallevel science and technology indicators and scientometric database to recordfacts about the past, present alld future research undertakings. This .kind ofstudies can have all impact on the scientific hUmall resource development andNational Science and Technology Policy.

Apart from tilat, tile human resource has tile capacity to produce aIld whoseupper limits cannot be defined. The purpose of the present paper will be fulfilledif it Call sensitise scientists from develcjJing countries, especially ltldianscientists to surpass/excel tile excellen~ role models of tile country .TIle conceptof tile role model has to be dynamic in order to cater to the current and futurenational demands.

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West, T.S. 1995. Personal communication. In: Kalyane V. L. 1996. RoleModel for Modern Biology Students,Project work ES -305 -Post GraduateDiploma in Higher Education; New Delhi: School of Educatiol1, 111diraGandhi National Open University, 311-312.

APPENDIX

Dllabha, Ho111i Jellangir: Cosmic rnys; Theory of elementary paI1icles andMalllematical Physics; Bhabll3-I-leitler cascade llleory; Bhabll3 scauering;Nomenclature 'meson' for llle paJlicle of inlemIediale mass discovered in cosmicrndiation, meson llleory, Llle test of relativistic tune dilation iJlvolving meson lifetinIe:'Utilised group Llleory to fomrulate relativistic wave equations; for elementary particles -Bhabll3 equation.Dhargava, Pushpa Mittra: Reproductive BiocheIiIistry; Liver cell suspension ariduptake of Nucleic acids; Cell division; Organic Chemistry and insecticides; Evolution;Antarctic Microbiology; Protein denaturation; tRNA arId rRNABhatia, Chittranjan R.: Induced mutations and Inutation breeding; Seed Proteins:Bioteclmology; Biocllemical Genetics; Plant BreedingDose, Satyendra Natll : Radiation 11Ieory; 02- Statistics: Electromagnetic \vaves inionosphere; Extrnction of gennanium; The principle of Relalivity; Deduction ofRydberg's law from Llle quantwn Llleory of spectral emissionCllidambaram, RajagolJala: Nuclear Magtletic Resonance; Neutron Diffraction &Hydrogen bonding; Higll Pressure & Shock Wave Physics; Quasi CrystalsCllopra, Virendra Lal : Experitnental mutagenesis; Diseasc Resistance ill wheat~Bioteclmology of oilseeds and chickpea; Breedillg wheat var"ielies DL 20-9 (llorLllemzone) and HW 657 (pel1illsular zone); Indigellous teclulology for producing slable aridcost-effective cellular bio-pesticides based onmulations of Llle toxic 13t gene

69

Kalya1le. V.L.. Madal', V K. al1d Vijai KU111ar

Iyengar, Padmanabha Krisltnagopala : Neutron mItt Solid State Physics; MossbaurSpectroscopy; Reactor Physics; Fusion, and Cold fusion; Nuclear PowerIyer, Ramas\vamy Hariharan : Radioanalytical Chemist!)'; RadioisotopesK~tpoor, Shyam Sunder: Nuclear Physics; Nuclear Radiation detectors; Accelerator-based R&D; Accelerator Physics 31ld energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis ofmaterials; Nuclear fission mId stiperheavy elements in tlle country~ BARC -TIFRpelletron acceleratorKrishnan, Kariamanikkam Srini\'asa : Spectroscopy; Magnetism; TherrnionicsMahalanobis, ' Prasanta Chandra: Statistic-Mallal8lIobis Distance; Operations

Research; Education Tests; Errors in Field Experimentations; Large-scale Sample

Sur\-.eys; Perspective planningNarayana, L. L.: Chemotaxonomy; Floral-31tatomy, embryolog)', morpholog)':Taxononiv..Narlikar, Jayant Vishnu: lilterpretation of cosmological observations; High EnergyAstrophysics; QuantUln 'cosmology: General relativity; Gravitation; Action-at-a distanceelectrodynanucs confomlal tlleory of gravity; Quasor Astronomy; A different approachto cosmology from a static wuverse tllfough tlle big bang towards realityRaman, Cltandrashekltar Venkata: Scattering of light; Acoustics;' Optics, Optics ofminerals and diamondS; Physics of Crystals; Floral colours and visual perceptionRamanna, Raja: Nuclear physics; Nuclear, .power 31ld 'otller peaceful uses of AtomicEnergy: Reactor theory, Physics and design; Science general; Philosophy; Europeanmusic; Variable Energy Cyclotron.Ramiah, K. : Rice Cytogenetics and BreedingRastogi Ram Gopal: LUlu-solar activity and quite-time E and F region; Equatorialelectric field and low and mid latitude ionosphere; Ionospheric E-region irregularities:

Ionospheric F-region irregularities: Magnetic distmb31lce effects on tlle equatorial lowmId mid latitude ionosphereReddy, G. M.: Biochemical 31ld physiological Genetics: Mutagenesis and MutationBreeding; Tissue Culture 31ld Somatic Cell GeneticsReddy, Vinodini: Malnutrition 31uong cltildren; Vitanun A; Protein; K\vasltiorkor;Immmlolog)'; Diarrhoea; Blillwless; Vit31uin D, Aleln Vitantin ESaha, Meghnad: Astrophysics and Spectroscopy; Nuclear Ph~'sics andAtomic Energy; National ProblemsSarabhai, Vikram Ambalal: Cosmic ltays: Science Folic)' and National Development;

M31lagementS\vaminatllalt, Monkornbu Sarnbasivan: Cytogepetics and Genetics; Phylogenelics;Crop Improvement; Induced Mutations and Mulalion BreedingVenkata Rant, C.S. : Tea patllolog)': Blisler blight: FwIgicides; PI31ltation Crops.

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