Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Apr’19 …vid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2019/April/Automobiles Sector Update... · Tata Motors (TTMT) HOLD CMP Target

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India Equity Research | Auto & Auto Ancillaries

April 30, 2019

Sector Update

Automobiles Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Apr’19 volume preview: weak show across segments

Ashok Leyland (AL) SELL

CMP Target Price

89 72

Bajaj Auto (BJAUT) SELL

CMP Target Price

3,045 2,500

Eicher Motors (EIM) SELL

CMP Target Price

20,294 18,000

Escorts (ESC) HOLD

CMP Target Price

734 660

Hero Motocorp (HMCL) HOLD

CMP Target Price

2,604 2,585

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) BUY

CMP Target Price

659 800

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) HOLD

CMP Target Price

6,843 6,800

Tata Motors (TTMT) HOLD

CMP Target Price

215 192

TVS Motor (TVSL) HOLD

CMP Target Price

505 486

This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation:

Raghunandhan N L [email protected] +91 22 6624 2428

Mumuksh Mandlesha [email protected] +91 22 6612 1334

Weak performance expected across segments in domestic market due to the high-

base effect, purchase deferrals during elections, inventory corrections, and funding

issues. Volumes should be lower yoy despite the favorable timing of the festive season.

MHCV volume is likely to remain in the slow lane, with a decline for TTMT (-9% yoy), AL

(-6%) and EIM–VECV (-3%) in the domestic market. Volumes should be lower yoy on

surplus capacity with fleet operators, high base, and purchase deferrals during elections.

2Ws a mixed bag: Volume decline is expected for EIM-RE (-16%), HMCL (-14%), and

TVSL (-3%), while flat growth is expected for BJAUT. Customer sentiment remains weak,

mainly due to the rising cost of ownership.

Mixed PV numbers: Growth expected for MM (+3%), while MSIL (-16%) and TTMT (-

7%) should witness steep declines. MM’s growth should be aided by new products, while

MSIL’s performance is expected to be affected by lower dispatches of Alto/ Omni models.

Tractor volume to decline 10% for MM, while marginal growth (+3%) expected for ESC.

PVs remain preferred space: Within the Auto space, we prefer PV companies, which

are relatively less affected by the upcoming BS6 transition. In contrast, we are negative

on the MHCV and 2W segments due to the high base and increasing cost of ownership.

Our top picks include Mahindra & Mahindra (TP: Rs800), Exide Industries (TP:

Rs267), and Motherson Sumi (TP: Rs182). Our top Sell-rated names are Ashok

Leyland (TP: Rs72), Eicher Motors (TP: Rs18,000), and Bajaj Auto (TP: Rs2,500).

Please see our sector EAP (Page 6): Emkay Alpha Portfolio – Automobiles & Auto Ancillaries

Company wise volume snapshot

Companies Apr-19E Mar18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Maruti Suzuki 150,000 172,986 (13.3) 158,076 (5.1)

M&M Auto 48,500 48,097 0.8 62,952 (23.0)

M&M Farm 28,000 30,925 (9.5) 19,688 42.2

Tata Motors MHCV 15,000 16,570 (9.5) 21,133 (29.0)

Tata Motors Total 54,500 56,521 (3.6) 74,679 (27.0)

Ashok Leyland MHCV 7,800 8,254 (5.5) 15,235 (48.8)

Ashok Leyland Total 12,550 12,677 (1.0) 21,535 (41.7)

Eicher Motors CV 4,200 3,959 6.1 8,676 (51.6)

Bajaj Auto 408,000 415,168 (1.7) 393,351 3.7

Hero MotoCorp 600,000 694,022 (13.5) 581,279 3.2

Royal Enfield 65,000 76,187 (14.7) 60,831 6.9

TVS Motors 307,500 304,795 0.9 325,345 (5.5)

Escorts 6,600 6,186 6.7 11,905 (44.6)

Atul Auto 3,000 2,738 9.6 4,612 (35.0)

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Automobiles India Equity Research | Sector Update


April 30, 2019 | 2

Exhibit 1: Segment-wise volume snapshot

Company Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

2Ws (Domestic)

Hero MotoCorp* 600,000 694,022 -13.5 581,279 3.2

Bajaj Auto (2Ws) 200,000 200,742 -0.4 220,213 -9.2

TVS Motor (2Ws) 235,000 241,604 -2.7 247,710 -5.1

Royal Enfield 62,500 74,627 -16.3 58,434 7.0

PVs (Domestic)

Maruti Suzuki 137,700 163,434 -15.7 145,031 -5.1

Mahindra & Mahindra 22,500 21,927 2.6 27,646 -18.6

Tata Motors 16,000 17,235 -7.2 17,810 -10.2

CVs (Domestic)

Tata Motors 35,000 36,276 -3.5 50,917 -31.3

Ashok Leyland 11,800 11,951 -1.3 20,521 -42.5

VECV 3,550 3,409 4.1 7,460 -52.4

Tractors (Domestic)

Mahindra & Mahindra 27,000 29,884 -9.7 18,446 46.4

Escorts 6,300 6,094 3.4 11,431 -44.9

Source: Company, Emkay Research; Note: *Total volume including exports

Company-wise highlights

Exhibit 2: Maruti Suzuki

Maruti Suzuki Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Domestic Cars 101,700 126,744 -19.8 103,030 -1.3

Domestic UVs 25,000 20,804 20.2 25,563 -2.2

Domestic Vans 11,000 15,886 -30.8 16,438 -33.1

Domestic PVs 137,700 163,434 -15.7 145,031 -5.1

Domestic LCVs 2,800 1,544 81.3 2,582 8.4

Exports 9,500 8,008 18.6 10,463 -9.2

Total 150,000 172,986 -13.3 158,076 -5.1


Exhibit 3: Mahindra & Mahindra

Mahindra & Mahindra Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Domestic PVs 22,500 21,927 2.6 27,646 -18.6

Domestic LCVs 17,700 18,059 -2.0 23,506 -24.7

Domestic MHCVs 600 904 -33.6 917 -34.6

Domestic 3Ws 5,000 4,327 15.6 6,943 -28.0

Exports Auto 2,700 2,880 -6.3 3,940 -31.5

Total Auto 48,500 48,097 0.8 62,952 -23.0

Domestic Tractors 27,000 29,884 -9.7 18,446 46.4

Exports Tractors 1,000 1,041 -3.9 1,242 -19.5

Total Tractors 28,000 30,925 -9.5 19,688 42.2

Total 76,500 79,022 -3.2 82,640 -7.4


Exhibit 4: Tata Motors

Tata Motors Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Domestic CVs 35,000 36,276 -3.5 50,917 -31.3

Domestic PVs 16,000 17,235 -7.2 17,810 -10.2

Exports 3,500 3,010 16.3 5,952 -41.2

Total 54,500 56,521 -3.6 74,679 -27.0




April 30, 2019 | 3

Exhibit 5: Ashok Leyland

Ashok Leyland Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Domestic MHCVs 7,800 8,254 -3.9 15,235 -34.2

Domestic LCVs 4,000 3,697 5.7 5,286 -17.0

Exports 750 726 2.3 1,014 -18.2

Total CVs 12,550 12,677 -1.0 21,535 -41.7


Exhibit 6: Eicher Motors

Eicher Motors Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Domestic 2Ws 62,500 74,627 -16.3 58,434 7.0

Exports 2Ws 2,500 1,560 60.3 2,397 4.3

Total 2Ws 65,000 76,187 -14.7 60,831 6.9

Domestic MHCVs 2,200 2,265 -2.9 5,053 -56.5

Domestic LCVs 1,300 1,124 15.7 2,276 -42.9

Domestic Volvo (Traded) 50 20 150.0 131 -61.8

Exports CVs 650 550 18.2 1,216 -46.5

Total CVs 4,200 3,959 6.1 8,676 -51.6


Exhibit 7: Bajaj Auto

Bajaj Auto Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Domestic 2Ws 200,000 200,742 -0.4 220,213 -9.2

Exports 2Ws 140,000 148,875 -6.0 103,325 35.5

Total 2Ws 340,000 349,617 -2.8 323,538 5.1

Domestic 3Ws 32,000 28,722 11.4 38,972 -17.9

Exports 3Ws 36,000 36,829 -2.3 30,841 16.7

Total 3Ws 68,000 65,551 3.7 69,813 -2.6

Total 408,000 415,168 -1.7 393,351 3.7


Exhibit 8: Hero MotoCorp

Hero MotoCorp Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Total 2Ws 600,000 694,022 -13.5 581,279 3.2


Exhibit 9: TVS Motor

TVS Motor Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Total Motorcycles 135,000 131,704 2.5 141,086 -4.3

Total Scooters 90,000 89,245 0.8 98,477 -8.6

Total Mopeds 69,000 72,469 -4.8 71,338 -3.3

Total 2Ws 294,000 293,418 0.2 310,901 -5.4

Total 3Ws 13,500 11,377 18.7 14,444 -6.5

Total 307,500 304,795 0.9 325,345 -5.5

Exports (Incl above) 71,500 61,798 15.7 76,405 -6.4

Domestic 2Ws 235,000 241,604 -2.7 247,710 -5.1

Domestic 3Ws 1,000 1,393 -28.2 1,230 -18.7


Exhibit 10: Escorts

Escorts Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Domestic Tractors 6,300 6,094 3.4 11,431 -44.9

Exports Tractors 300 92 226.1 474 -36.7

Total Tractors 6,600 6,186 6.7 11,905 -44.6


Exhibit 11: Atul Auto

Atul Auto Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Total 3Ws 3,000 2,738 9.6 4,612 -35.0




April 30, 2019 | 4

Exhibit 12: JLR (wholesales)

JLR (wholsales) Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Jaguar 13,500 14,874 -9.2 20,985 -35.7

Land Rover 29,000 30,410 -4.6 49,186 -41.0

Total 42,500 45,284 -6.1 70,171 -39.4


Exhibit 13: JLR (retails)

JLR (retails) Apr-19E Apr18 YoY (%) Mar19 MoM (%)

Jaguar 13,500 13,289 1.6 24,262 -44.4

Land Rover 29,000 31,891 -9.1 52,633 -44.9

Total 42,500 45,180 -5.9 76,895 -44.7


Exhibit 14: Discounts declined mom in Maruti Suzuki

Company Models

Apr-18 Mar-19 Apr-19

chg y-y (%)

chg m-m (%)

% of base price

(ex-Delhi)

Cash or other

incentives Exchange

Total cash discount*

Cash or other

incentives Exchange


Cash or other

incentives Exchange


Maruti Alto 800 25,000 25,000 35,000 30,000 30,000 42,000 20,000 20,000 28,000 (20) (33) 11

Maruti Alto K10 17,000 30,000 29,000 25,000 35,000 39,000 20,000 20,000 28,000 (3) (28) 8

Maruti WagonR 25,000 30,000 37,000 15,000 6,000 (84) 1

Maruti Celerio Petrol 20,000 25,000 30,000 25,000 30,000 37,000 20,000 20,000 28,000 (7) (24) 7

Maruti Celerio AMT 20,000 30,000 32,000 30,000 30,000 42,000 25,000 20,000 33,000 3 (21) 7

Maruti Ignis 15,000 25,000 25,000 15,000 15,000 21,000 15,000 15,000 21,000 (16) 0 5

Maruti Swift Petrol 25,000 25,000 35,000 20,000 20,000 28,000 (20) 6

Maruti Swift Diesel 20,000 30,000 32,000 15,000 20,000 23,000 (28) 4

Maruti Dzire Petrol 25,000 30,000 37,000 20,000 20,000 28,000 (24) 5

Maruti Dzire Diesel 20,000 8,000 20,000 40,000 36,000 20,000 20,000 28,000 250 (22) 4

Maruti Baleno 0

Maruti Ertiga Petrol 20,000 30,000 32,000

Maruti Ertiga Diesel 20,000 45,000 38,000

Maruti Ciaz Petrol 15,000 50,000 35,000 10,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 25,000 25,000 (29) 25 3

Maruti Ciaz Diesel 30,000 50,000 50,000 10,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 25,000 25,000 (50) 25 3

Maruti Vitara Brezza 15,000 25,000 25,000 15,000 15,000 21,000 (16) 3

Maruti Scross 15,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 20 3

Mahindra TUV3OO 25,000 35,000 39,000 35,000 15,000 41,000 35,000 15,000 41,000 5 0 5

Mahindra KUV1OO 40,000 25,000 50,000 40,000 29,000 51,600 40,000 29,000 51,600 3 0 11

Mahindra Marazzo 15,000 6,000 15,000 6,000 0 1

Mahindra Scorpio 17,000 15,000 23,000 25,000 25,000 35,000 25,000 25,000 35,000 52 0 4

Mahindra XUV500 80,000 15,000 86,000 25,000 25,000 35,000 25,000 25,000 35,000 (59) 0 3

Tata Tiago 10,000 10,000 14,000 15,000 10,000 19,000 36 5

Tata Tigor 10,000 10,000 14,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 25,000 25,000 35,000 150 17 7

Tata Hexa 25,000 10,000 29,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 3 0 2

Tata Nexon 15,000 20,000 23,000 15,000 20,000 23,000 0 4

*Note: exchange discount converted to cash discount at 40% of amount; Discounts pertain to Delhi; Source: Industry, Dealer interactions



April 30, 2019 | 5

Exhibit 15: Peer comparison

Companies CMP (Rs)

Target (Rs)

Reco EPS (Rs) PE (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%)

FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Ashok Leyland 89 72 Sell 6.7 5.3 4.0 13.3 16.7 22.1 25.4 18.1 13.0 29.1 24.6 17.9

Atul Auto 325 465 Buy 24.3 28.6 31.0 13.4 11.4 10.5 22.8 22.9 21.2 34.8 34.4 32.0

Bajaj Auto 3,045 2,500 Sell 150.7 171.9 186.5 20.2 17.7 16.3 21.6 22.1 21.6 30.6 31.3 30.5

Eicher Motors 20,294 18,000 Sell 829.1 957.2 1041.5 24.5 21.2 19.5 28.4 26.2 23.2 37.1 34.6 31.5

Escorts Ltd 734 660 Hold 56.9 60.0 57.3 12.9 12.2 12.8 17.6 16.0 13.5 25.6 23.1 19.7

Hero Motocorp* 2,604 2,585 Hold 169.5 178.2 198.8 15.4 14.6 13.1 27.5 26.3 26.4 39.1 37.1 37.3

Mahindra & Mahindra 659 800 Buy 44.0 45.6 45.3 15.0 14.4 14.5 16.8 15.5 13.8 20.0 20.5 18.5

Maruti Suzuki India* 6,843 6,800 Hold 248.4 284.2 339.7 27.6 24.1 20.1 17.1 17.7 19.0 23.6 25.0 27.0

Tata Motors 215 192 Hold 6.2 22.8 24.7 35.0 9.4 8.7 2.6 11.1 10.9 4.0 8.8 8.6

TVS Motor 505 486 Hold 14.9 18.5 20.6 33.8 27.2 24.5 22.6 23.8 22.4 24.7 26.9 26.3

Amara Raja Batteries 667 840 Buy 30.1 37.9 41.8 22.1 17.6 15.9 16.3 17.8 17.0 23.8 25.9 24.9

Apollo Tyres 210 251 Buy 16.2 20.7 22.8 13.0 10.1 9.2 9.1 10.8 10.9 9.1 10.5 10.7

Exide Industries 214 267 Buy 8.6 10.9 12.0 24.8 19.6 17.8 12.9 14.8 14.8 19.9 21.7 21.8

Motherson Sumi 145 182 Buy 5.6 7.7 9.1 25.7 18.8 15.8 17.5 21.9 22.7 16.7 20.2 22.1

Note:*FY19 actuals. Source: Company, Emkay Research



April 30, 2019 | 6

Emkay Alpha Portfolio – Automobiles & Auto Ancillaries

Exhibit 16: EAP sector portfolio

Company Name EAP Weight

(Normalised) EAP

Weight BSE200 Weight

OW/UW (%)

OW/UW (bps)

Auto & Auto Ancillaries 100.00 6.48 6.48 0% 0

Amara Raja Batteries 2.53 0.16 0.10 65% 6

Apollo Tyres 2.87 0.19 0.12 53% 6

Ashok Leyland 0.00 0.00 0.21 -100% -21

Atul Auto 1.00 0.06 0.00 NA 6

Bajaj Auto 5.61 0.36 0.69 -47% -32

Bosch* 4.39 0.28 0.28 0% 0

Eicher Motors 3.45 0.22 0.48 -54% -26

Endurance Technologies* 0.72 0.05 0.05 0% 0

Escorts 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA 0

Exide Industries 5.63 0.37 0.17 114% 19

Hero Motocorp 4.14 0.27 0.57 -53% -30

Mahindra & Mahindra 20.33 1.32 1.06 24% 26

Maruti Suzuki India 26.87 1.74 1.48 17% 26

Motherson Sumi 7.57 0.49 0.30 66% 19

MRF* 3.07 0.20 0.20 0% 0

Tata Motors 8.22 0.53 0.53 0% 0

Tata Motors DVR* 1.14 0.07 0.07 0% 0

TVS Motor 2.44 0.16 0.16 0% 0

Cash 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA 0

Source: Emkay Research

* Not under coverage: Equal Weight

High Conviction-Strong Over Weight High Conviction-Strong Under Weight

Exhibit 17: Sector portfolio NAV

Base Current

1-Apr-19 25-Apr-19 3m 6m 12m

EAP - Auto & Auto Ancillaries 100.0 101.7

BSE200 Equal Weighted Portfolio (ETF) 100.0 102.4

*Performance measurement base date 1st April 2019

Source: Emkay Research

Analyst: Raghunandhan Nl

Contact Details

[email protected]

+91 22 6624 2428

Sector

Automobiles and Ancillaries

Analyst bio

Raghu holds an MBA and comes with

total 11 years of research experience. His

team currently covers 14 stocks in the

Indian Automobiles and Ancillaries

space.

mailto:[email protected]



April 30, 2019 | 7

Emkay Rating Distribution

Ratings Expected Return within the next 12-18 months.

BUY Over 15%

HOLD Between -5% to 15%

SELL Below -5%

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Raghunandhan N L, MBA

[email protected]

+91 22 6624 2428

Documents

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Apr’19 …vid.investmentguruindia.com/report/2019/April/Automobiles Sector Update... · Tata Motors (TTMT) HOLD CMP Target