Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS EALCO - a model for climate impact analysis of ecosystems Shusen Wang Canada Centre for Remote

Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS

EALCO - a model for climate impact analysis of ecosystems

Shusen WangCanada Centre for Remote Sensing

Natural Resources Canada

Yinsuo ZhangVladimir KorolevichRichard Fernandes

Josef Cihlar

Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change

Earth Sciences Sector


Outline

• Introduction• Model Structure• Sample Results

Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change

Earth Sciences Sector


CCP

National

Regional

Municipality

Geo. & bio. C

Paleo Climate

Social eco. cost

Glacial

Coastal

Permafrost

Ecosystems

Water resources

EO & atm. radiation


EnergyCycle

NitrogenCycle

CarbonCycle

WaterCycle

EcosystemEcosystem and Climate

Ecosystem consists of fundamental physical, physiological, biogeochemical processes.

Climate

• Climate Change• Climate Variability• Extreme Event• Local vs. Regional• Short term vs. Long term• etc.

Climate drives ecosystem.

Ecosystem processes are intrinsically dynamic and highly coupled with each other.

Ecosystem feedbacks on climate.


Climate Impact Assessment

Satellite EO

Surface & Subsurface Observations

Climate Model Outputs/Reanalysis

GIS Database

Water Balance

Carbon Budget

Radiation andEnergy Budget

Nitrogen dynamics

Inputs Outputs

EnergyCycle

NitrogenCycle

CarbonCycle

WaterCycle

EALCO

• Impact• Response• Sensitivity• Vulnerability• Feedback• Adaptation

AssessmentOutcomes

EALCO - Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations


The Radiation module

Direct SW ()

Diffuse SW ()

Atmosphere LW

Canopy ()Canopy LW

Soil/Snow () Soil/Snow LW

Reflection, transfer, absorption Absorption, emission

Explicit canopy structure

Direct SW ()

Diffuse SW ()

Atmosphere LW

Canopy ()Canopy LW

Soil/Snow () Soil/Snow LW

Reflection, transfer, absorption Absorption, emission

Explicit canopy structure

Gap probability based ray tracing approach. Multi-canopy layers and multi-wavelength for

solar radiation. Separation of direct vs. diffuse components. Long wave radiation calculated from canopy

and ground surface temperatures obtained through their energy balance solutions.

Wang, S., et al., 2002, Eco. Mod., 155: 191-204.

Wang, S. et al., 2004, Eco. Mod. (in review).

Wang, S. et al., 2003, IGARSS


The Energy Balance module

Energy balance solution for canopy, soil, and snow, using surface temperatures as prognostic variables.

Canopy energy balance coupled with plant water balance and canopy C dynamics.

Multi-soil and snow layer identification for heat transfer and water/ice/snow phase change.

Wang, S., 2002, International J. Climatology 22: 1249-1265.

C a n o p y N e t S W & L W

C a n o p y S e n s i b l e H e a t

C a n o p y L a t e n t H e a t

S o i l / S n o w L a t e n t H e a t

S o i l / S n o w S e n s i b l e H e a t

S o i l H e a t E x c h a n g e

H e a t s t o r a g e

S n o w / S o i l W a t e rP h a s e C h a n g e

C a n o p y r e s i s t a n c e

S o i l / S n o w N e t S W & L W

T 1

T i

B o u n d a r y - l a y e r r e s i s t a n c e

T N


The Water Balance module

Sublimation

Evaporation

Soil Water Exchange

Sunlit & shaded leaf stomatal resistance

Root resistance

Soil resistance

Plant Water Capacity

Drainage

Runoff

Precipitation Transpiration

Intercepted precipitation

Boundary-layer resistance

Through Fall

Infiltration

1

2

N

Dew

Dew

Water table

Capillary rise

Dynamic canopy water balance solution using leaf water potential as the prognostic variable.

Climate and physiological control on evapotranspiration through nested iteration for energy balance and intercellular CO2 balance.

Multi-layer hydraulic conductance for soil and root (radial and axial).

Richardson equation for soil water simulation. method for ground surface evaporation.

Wang, S., et al., 2002, International J. Climatology 22: 1249-1265.

Zhang, Y. and Wang, S., 2004, AGU 2004 Joint Assembly, Montreal, Canada.


Photosynthesis Foliage maintenance & growth respiration

Sapwood maintenance

& growth respiration

Microbial respiration

Root maintenance & growth

respiration

C Transport

Litter Fall

Shaded leaf CO2Sunlit leaf CO2

Root C exudation

Assimilation, remobilization

Photosynthesis Foliage maintenance & growth respiration

Sapwood maintenance

& growth respiration

Microbial respiration

Root maintenance & growth

respiration

C Transport

Litter Fall

Shaded leaf CO2Sunlit leaf CO2

Root C exudation

Assimilation, remobilization

Farquhar model based C fixation. Identification of sunlit and shaded leaves. Identification of different plant compartments

for organ growth, respiration, and litter production.

Identification of three C pools for litterfall and three C pools for soil organic matter.

Multi-soil layer heterotrophic respiration.

Wang, S., et al., 2002, Climatic Change 55: 451-477.


The Carbon Balance module


The Nitrogen Balance module

Mineral N Transport

N Tr

ansp

ort

Litter Fall

Root N UptakeMineralization/Immobilization

N Leaching

Fertilizer

N Biochemical Cycle

N Assimilation

Atmosphere N Deposition

Mineral N Transport

N Tr

ansp

ort

Litter Fall

Root N UptakeMineralization/Immobilization

N Leaching

Fertilizer

N Biochemical Cycle

N Assimilation

Atmosphere N Deposition

Nitrogen balance among atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, and ecosystem leaching.

Plant and soil N content balanced by root N uptake and litterfall.

Dynamic root N uptake algorithms including both active and passive N transfers.

Corresponding plant and soil N pools to carbon pools.

Wang, S., et al., 2002, Climatic Change 55: 451-477.



The Water Transfer scheme

ra

qa

s,3

Canopy

Soil layer 3

Soil layer 2

Atmosphere

Soil layer 1

s,2

s,1

r,3 rs,3

r,2 rs,2

r,1 rs,1

rr,3

rr,2

rr,1

rc,sunlit

rc,shaded qsat(Tc)

c

rx,3

rx,1

rx,2Cw

root soil

leaf


The Plant C and N scheme

Resistance Resistance

Ph

oto

synth

esis

CO2

N u

ptake

Foliage Stem Fine Root

Substrate C

StructuralC N

Substrate N

Substrate C

StructuralC N

Substrate N

Substrate C

StructuralC N

Substrate N

Heartwood

Litter fall

Exu

datio

n


The soil C and N scheme

N deposition Min. N

N uptake Min. N

Surface litter

Soil layer 1

Soil layer 2

CO2

CO2

CO2

C

N

litte

rfal

l

Microbial

Slow Humus

Extract.

Extract.

litte

rfal

lL

eaf,

Ste

mR

oo

t

PL

AN

TC Microbial

Active

Lignin

Lignin Cellulose

Cellulose

N Leaching

Fertilizer

Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESSThe Soil and SnowThermal & Water scheme

LE

RldnH Snow layers

Soil layers

Water table

RlupRldnRsdnH

RlupRsdnLE

G

G WflowG

Drainage or capillary rise

Runoff

Puddles

Root uptake


Energy, Water, and CO2 processes around a leaf

Leaf Interior

Boundary layer

Stomate

CO2

ci

ca

ra

rl

Sensible heat

ra Tc

Ta

H2O

Light reactions

O2 C

ATP, NADPH

CO2

H2O

es(Tc)

ea

ra

rl

Dark reactions

RN


Energy balance

The coupling scheme of Energy, Water, and CO2

Iteration for c

Iteration for TcIteration for Ci

CO2 balance

Water balance

Control Equations:

Canopy water balance

Canopy energy balance

Canopy CO2 balance 0)rr/()CC(RV caai

0t

MCrrrgrr

Tqq cpp

n

1i ixisir

isc

ca

csataa

)(

)]([

,,,

,

0RQQQ NCEH


Sample Results- Response of Ci to CO2 concentration

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175

DOY (1994)

Ci/

Ca

CO2=350 ppm

CO2=700 ppm

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175

DOY (1994)

Ci/

Ca

sunlit leaf

shaded leaf


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

An

nu

al p

reci

pit

atio

n (

mm

)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

GP

P (

gC

/m2 )

CO2=350 ppm

CO2=700 ppm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

NP

P (

gC

/m2 )

CO2=350 ppm

CO2=700 ppm

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

ET

(m

m)

CO2=350 ppm

CO2=700 ppm

Sample Results- 2XCO2 Impact on ET, GPP, and NPP


y = 1.0062x + 0.015

R2 = 0.9046

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Measured ecosystem CO2 exchange (gC m-2 d-1)

EA

LCO

sim

ulat

ed C

O2 e

xcha

nge

(gC

m-2

d-1

) Simulated vs. measured NEPSouthern Old Aspen2002

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

181 182 183 184 185 186 187

En

erg

y fl

ux

(W m

-2) Rn

LE H

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 720 780 840 900 960 1020 1080

Day since January 1, 2000N

et

CO

2 e

xch

an

ge

, g

C m

-2 d

-1

EALCO simulated net ecosystem productivity

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480 540 600 660 720 780 840 900 960 1020 1080

Day since January 1, 2000

Eva

potr

ansp

iratio

n, m

m H

2O

day

-1 EALCO simulated ecosystem water flux

Site Application- Energy, water and CO2 fluxes


Site Application - Snow depth

Figure 2 Simulated and observed snow depth at SOA site

010

2030

4050

6070

80

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Snow

depth

(cm

) Measured

Simulated

Figure 3 Simulated and observed snow depth at Pearson airport. The misclassified precipitation is also ploted (+: treat snow as rain; -: treat rain as snow)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Sn

ow

de

pth

(cm

)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Mis

cla

ssifie

d

pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

/da

y)

Simulated Measured Misclassif ied precipitation


Site Application- Soil and snow temperatures

Figure 4 Simulated snow temperature vs. observed snow and air tmeperatures at SOA site

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

310 338 1 29 57 85 113 141 169 197 225 253 281 309 337 365

Day of Year

Te

mp

era

ture Measured snow temperature

Simulated snow temperature

Measured air temperature

Figure 5 Simulated and observed soil temperatures at SOA site

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

So

il te

mp

era

ture Measured at 10cm Simulated 5-10cm

Measured at 100cm Simulated 40-140cm

Figure 6 Observed air temperatures at SOA site

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Air

tem

pera

ture

2001-2002


YearPreci.mm

ETmm

GPPgC m-2

NPPgC m-2

NEPgC m-2

Meas. NEPgC m-2

2000 484 316 1060 443 132 135

2001 235 443 1305 614 319 382

2002 287 338 954 417 155 148

ET – Evapotranspiration; GPP – Gross Primary Production; NPP – Net Primary Production;NEP – Net Ecosystem Productivity; Meas. NEP – Measured NEP.

Site Application- Annual C and H2O budgets for the boreal old aspen ecosystem


(Courtesy of OURANOS Consortium)

Churchill-falls sub-basin average ET observed:

260mm/year

Regional Application- ET validation using water balance measurements


National Application- Annual ET (1961-1990) at CWEEDS* stations

(mm/year)(mm/year)(mm/year)

*CWEEDS - Canadian Weather Energy and Engineering Data Sets


National Application- Sample inputs


National Application- Sample outputs

E v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n , A u g . 1 9 9 8

> 1 2 0 m m0 3 0 6 0 9 0 > 1 2 0 m m0 3 0 6 0 9 0

G r o s s P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 3 0 0 g C / m 20 1 0 0 2 0 0 > 3 0 0 g C / m 20 1 0 0 2 0 0

N e t P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 2 0 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 1 5 0 > 2 0 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 1 5 0

N e t R a d i a t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 2 1 0 w / m 2< 7 0 1 0 5 1 7 51 4 0 > 2 1 0 w / m 2< 7 0 1 0 5 1 7 51 4 0

N e t E c o s y s t e m P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 1 5 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 > 1 5 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0

E v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n , A u g . 1 9 9 8

> 1 2 0 m m0 3 0 6 0 9 0 > 1 2 0 m m0 3 0 6 0 9 0

E v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n , A u g . 1 9 9 8E v a p o t r a n s p i r a t i o n , A u g . 1 9 9 8

> 1 2 0 m m0 3 0 6 0 9 0 > 1 2 0 m m0 3 0 6 0 9 0

G r o s s P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 3 0 0 g C / m 20 1 0 0 2 0 0 > 3 0 0 g C / m 20 1 0 0 2 0 0

G r o s s P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8G r o s s P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 3 0 0 g C / m 20 1 0 0 2 0 0 > 3 0 0 g C / m 20 1 0 0 2 0 0

N e t P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 2 0 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 1 5 0 > 2 0 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 1 5 0

N e t P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8N e t P r i m a r y P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 2 0 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 1 5 0 > 2 0 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 1 5 0

N e t R a d i a t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 2 1 0 w / m 2< 7 0 1 0 5 1 7 51 4 0 > 2 1 0 w / m 2< 7 0 1 0 5 1 7 51 4 0

N e t R a d i a t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8N e t R a d i a t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 2 1 0 w / m 2< 7 0 1 0 5 1 7 51 4 0 > 2 1 0 w / m 2< 7 0 1 0 5 1 7 51 4 0

N e t E c o s y s t e m P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 1 5 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 > 1 5 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0

N e t E c o s y s t e m P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8N e t E c o s y s t e m P r o d u c t i o n , J u l . 1 9 9 8

> 1 5 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0 > 1 5 0 g C / m 2< - 5 0 0 1 0 05 0

THANK YOU!

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Reducing Canada's vulnerability to climate change - ESS EALCO - a model for climate impact analysis of ecosystems Shusen Wang Canada Centre for Remote