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Kathy Lindert
June 2013
REDISTRIBUTION & TRANSFERS IN
EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA (ECA):
“BROAD BRUSH IMPRESSIONS
FROM A FULL-COLOR PALETTE”
1
Sustained
6 year
effort
by ECA’s
SP team
for
Systematic
Data
Collection
& Analysis
ECA – SPEED“A very rich
palette indeed!”
SOCIAL
PROTECTION
EXPENDITURE &
EVALUATION
DATABASE
Credits & Contact: Victoria Strokova ([email protected])
& Tomas Damerau ([email protected])
With contributions of entire ECA SP team! 2
ECA-SPEEDSOCIAL PROTECTION EXPENDITURE & EVALUATION DATABASE
The
ECA-SPEED
“Palette”
Expenditure Module
Performance Module
Perceptions
Module3
Large Canvas: Administrative data on Government Spending on Social Protection Transfers Social Insurance (contributory pensions, disability, maternity, etc.)
Labor Programs (unemployment insurance, assistance, ALMPs)
Social Assistance Programs (non-contributory cash transfers + in-kind social assistance)
4
ECA–SPEED EXPENDITURES MODULE
Covering the Canvas: 20 countries in ECA
Multi-year (2005-2011/12, earlier in many cases)
Regular updating
Many Filters:
Types of programs
Targeted vscategorical
Levels of Government (design, financing, implementation)
ECA–SPEED: PERFORMANCE MODULE
(INPUTS = PRIMARY COLORS)
5
Household
Surveys
Standardized
Software for
Indicators
(SP ADEPT)
Standardized
Consumption
Aggregate
ECA-SPEED: PERFORMANCE MODULE
(OUTPUTS: PAINTING THE PICTURE)
ECA-SPEED Performance Module & SP
ADEPT
Coverage
Distribution (Targeting Accuracy)
Generosity of Benefits
Impacts on poverty & Inequality
6
Analyzing Public Perceptions of
Redistribution, Transfers, Poverty, Inequality
European Values Study (2008-10)
Subset of World Values Survey
Data for 45 European countries (25 ECA)
European Social Survey (2008)
Academically driven multi country survey
Data for 30 European countries (16 ECA)
Forthcoming paper by Aylin Isik-Dikmelik,
Victoria Strokova & Maria Pomés-Jiménez:
Attitudes Towards Redistribution
Political Economy of Taxes, Transfers &
Redistribution in ECA
ECA–SPEED PERCEPTIONS MODULE:
ATTITUDES TOWARDS REDISTRIBUTION
7
HIGH SPENDING
ON SP TRANSFERS
BROADER COVERAGE, LESS EMPHASIS ON NARROW TARGETING
TO POOREST
MIXED ATTITUDES TOWARDS REDISTRI-BUTION
BROAD BRUSH
IMPRESSIONS
FROM THIS EXTENSIVE
ECA-SPEED PALETTE
8
MANY COUNTRIES SPEND A LOT ON
SOCIAL PROTECTION IN ECA
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Ukraine 11
Serbia 10
Estonia 10
Croatia 11
Montenegro 10
Romania 10
Bulgaria 10
Moldova 10
Latvia 11
ECA average
FYR …
Turkey 10
Albania 11
Belarus 11
BIH 10
Armenia 12
Azerbaijan 11
Kazakhstan 12
Kosovo 12
Tajikistan 11
Percentage of GDP
Social Protection Spending, percentage of GDP, latest year available
Social Assistance Labor Market Social Insurance
ECA Average = around 10% of GDP
Source: ECA SPEED: Expenditures Module
9
WHILE MUCH OF THIS GOES TO PENSIONS,
SPENDING ON SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
TRANSFERS IS STILL QUITE HIGH
3.79
3.38
3.33
3.16
2.33
2.28
2.08
1.82
1.54
1.47
1.43
1.43
1.33
1.28
1.08
1.07
1.04
0.97
0.94
0.58
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Croatia 11
Romania 10
BIH 10
Estonia 10
Ukraine 11
Moldova 10
Serbia 10
ECA-Average
Albania 11
Kosovo 12
Montenegro 10
Armenia 12
Turkey 10
Belarus 11
FYR …
Bulgaria 10
Kazakhstan 12
Azerbaijan 11
Latvia 11
Tajikistan 11
Percentage of GDP
Social Assistance Spending, percentage of GDP, latest year available
ECA Average = about 2% of GDP
(comparable to OECD countries)
Source: ECA SPEED: Expenditures Module
10
SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SPENDING IS
FRAGMENTED: MANY COUNTRIES
WITH 20-40+ BENEFIT SCHEMESSocial Assistance Spending as share of GDP, by main benefit types
Source: ECA SPEED: Expenditures Module
11
MUCH SPENDING ON TRANSFERS
IS NOT EXPLICITLY TARGETED
BY ECONOMIC NEED
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Cro
atia
11
Ro
man
ia 1
0
BIH
10
Est
on
ia 1
0
Ukra
ine
11
Mo
ldo
va
10
Ser
bia
10
EC
A A
ver
age
Alb
ania
11
Ko
sovo
12
Mo
nte
neg
ro 1
0
Arm
enia
12
Turk
ey 1
0
Bel
arus
11
FY
R M
aced
on
ia 1
1
Bulg
aria
10
Kaz
akh
stan
12
Aze
rbai
jan
11
Lat
via
11
Taj
ikis
tan
11
Per
can
etag
e o
f G
DP
Means-tested versus non-means-tested Social Assistance, percentage of GDP, latest year available
Non-means-tested
Means-tested
Source: ECA SPEED: Expenditures Module
12
INCREASING SHARE OF SPENDING ON
NON-TARGETED SOCIAL TRANSFERS
OVER TIME
Only a few countries
increasing
allocations to
targeted programs
Source: ECA SPEED: Expenditures Module
13
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sh
are
of
no
n-m
ean
s-te
sted
in
to
tal SA
Variation in the share of non-means tested Social Assistance, in total Social Assistance spending, years as selected
Base year
Final Year
COVERAGE OF OVERALL
SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
IS HIGH IN MANY COUNTRIES
0102030405060708090
100
Social Assistance Coverage
% of population receiving benefits
0102030405060708090
100
Social Assistance
Coverage of the Poorest Quintile (%)
Source: ECA SPEED: Performance Module
Coverage of the
poor is high….
….As is coverage
of the general
population
(non-contributory
Transfers)
14
CONTRIBUTING TO REDUCTION
IN POVERTY & INEQUALITY
Source: ECA SPEED: Performance Module
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Po
ver
ty R
ate
(per
cen
t)
Poverty rate before and after SP transfers
Post-social protection transfers Pre-social protection transfers Pre-social assistance transfers
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Gin
i le
vel
Consumption inequality (Gini coefficient) before and after SP transfers After SP transfers Before SP transfers After Social Insurance inc. UB
LAST-RESORT PROGRAMS IN ECA ARE
VERY WELL TARGETED TO THE POOR…
BUT WITH LOW COVERAGE
Targeting accuracy
very high…
Source: ECA SPEED: Performance Module
16
But coverage of poor is
very low
(often with low political
support)
FAMILY & CHILD ALLOWANCES ARE
SOMETIMES TARGETED TO THE POOR…
But with much higher
coverage of the poor
in some countries
Mixed redistributive
performanceMeans-tested Not Means-tested
Source: ECA SPEED: Performance Module
17
HOUSING & UTILITY BENEFITS ARE
OFTEN NEUTRAL OR REGRESSIVE
AND WITH LOW COVERAGE OF POOR…
And with very low
coverage of the poor
Many are neutral or
regressive
Source: ECA SPEED: Performance Module
18
PERCEPTIONS OF REDISTRIBUTION:
ATTITUDES TOWARDS
INEQUALITY ARE MIXED
19
Source: ECA SPEED: Perceptions Module – 2008 EVS
Preference for more
income EQUALITY
Preference for more
incentives for individual
effort
ECA COUNTRIES
IN BROWN
ECA COUNTRIES
IN BROWN
ATTITUDES TOWARDS
THE POOR ARE ALSO MIXED
20
Source: ECA SPEED: Perceptions Module – 2008 EVS
ECA COUNTRIES
IN BROWN
SOCIAL BENEFITS AS TOOL FOR
REDISTRIBUTION?
LESS SUPPORT IN ECA
21
Source: ECA SPEED: Perceptions Module – 2008 EVS
ECA COUNTRIES
WESTERN EUROPE
22
GOVERNMENT RESPONSIBILITY TO
PROVIDE FOR EVERYONE IN ECA?
EXPECTATIONS IN ECA
ECA COUNTRIES
WESTERN EUROPE
Source: ECA SPEED: Perceptions Module – 2008 EVS
23
EXPECATIONS TO PROVIDE FOR EVERYONE?
CAN ECA’S SP SYSTEM WITHSTAND
INCREASING PRESSURES?
Shrinking
labor
force
Aging
Population
Fiscal
Strain
Time to consider
targeting the needy &
promoting activation?
High Spending
on SP
Transfers
Broader
Coverage,
Less emphasis
on targeting
the poorest
These patterns
seem to mirror
public
perceptions of
redistribution
Is the system
sustainable?
BROAD-BRUSH
IMPRESSIONS:
REDISTRIBUTION
AND TRANSFERS
IN ECA
24
E x ten d in g t h e S P E E DP a l et te :
To o t h e r r eg io n s ( L AC , S A R , A F R wo r k in g o n s im i la r S P d a t a b a ses )
G lo b a l l y v ia S P A n c h o r ’ s A S P I R E d a t a b a se
A d d in g m o d u les ( l a b o r & i n c en t i ves , p ro f i l i n g , a c t i va t io n )
W i t h s o m e c h a l leng es :
E n su r in g c o m p a r a b i l i t y a c ro ss r eg io n s
E n h a n c in g u se r -f r i en d ly in te r f a ce
S u s t a in in g f in a n c in g fo r d a t a …
25
Next Steps:
Expanding
the
ECA-SPEED
“Palette”
Expenditure Module
Performance Module
Perceptions
Module
The ECA SP Team is constantly updating ECA-SPEED,
which is being used for numerous country & regional analyses
For further information on ECA-SPEED, please contact
Victoria Strokova & Tomas Damerau
