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Red Sticker Proposal Workshop EL MONTE, CALIFORNIA OCTOBER 23, 2018

Red Sticker Rulemaking - California Air Resources Board · 2020. 10. 14. · oUpdated inventory model to include latest 2017 DMV data oIncludes latest UCLA forecast of future economic

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  • Red Sticker Proposal Workshop

    EL MONTE, CALIFORNIA

    OCTOBER 23, 2018

  • Meeting Outlineo Background and Key Elements from Previous Workshop

    o Feedback Received

    o Emissions Inventory Update

    o CARB Goals for Updated Proposal

    o Updated Proposal

    o Additional CARB Ongoing Commitments

    o Next Steps

    2

  • Backgroundo 2013 evaporative rule◦ Board directed staff to conduct technical assessment of Red Sticker category

    o Red Sticker assessment ◦ Emissions testing◦ Owner survey◦ Population evaluation

    o Stakeholder outreach and proposal developmento Informational Board Hearingo Red Sticker proposal workshop

    3

  • Key Elements from Previous Workshopo End Red Sticker program in 2022o Realize expected benefits of 2013 evaporative rule

    o Transition exhaust standards for Red Sticker OHMCs to Green Sticker control

    o Lift Red Sticker program riding restrictionso Minimize impact to model availability

    o Provisions for youth models and zero emissions vehicles

    4

  • Feedback Received – Manufacturers/Dealerso Address manufacturers challenges in meeting evaporative standards

    o Model availability still a major concern for stakeholders

    o Consider a proposal that incorporates ATVs, rather than just motorcycles

    o Consider a multi-tiered approach to certification that includes alternative pathways

    o Consider youth models be given exemption from exhaust standards

    o Develop a method to direct ZEV incentives to manufacturers

    5

  • CARB Activities Since Last Workshopo Presented proposal to OHV State Parks Commission

    o CARB conducted additional emissions testing to assess benefits of evaporative controls proposed by industry

    o Updated emissions inventory

    o Revised proposal to reduce impacts on model availability

    o Met with manufacturers to discuss updated proposal

    6

  • Emissions Inventory Updateo CARB evaluated comments and worked with industry to conduct additional

    emissions testing

    o More accurate assessment of evaporative emissions during long term storage

    o Refined the emissions inventory based on test data

    o Updated inventory model to include latest 2017 DMV data

    o Includes latest UCLA forecast of future economic activity

    7

  • Updated Annual Sales Forecast

    0

    200000

    400000

    600000

    800000

    1000000

    1200000

    1400000

    2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

    Popu

    latio

    n

    Calendar Year

    Previous

    Updated

    8

  • Updated Baseline

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    2029

    2030

    2031

    2032

    2033

    2034

    2035

    2036

    2037

    2038

    2039

    2040RO

    G &

    NO

    X (T

    ons/

    day)

    Calendar Year

    Previous Baseline

    Updated Baseline

    9

  • CARB’s Updated Proposalo Address feedback provided during last workshop

    o Maintain model availability while reducing emissions

    o Integrate certification alternatives and pathways where possible

    o Address implementation and research costs for OHRV market

    o Provide pathway for Green Sticker vehicles to move back into the market place as soon as possible

    10

  • Updated Proposal – Unchanged Elementso Sales of new Red Sticker vehicles ends in MY2022

    o Lift Red Sticker riding restrictions in 2025◦ Existing Red Sticker vehicles will no longer be subject to seasonal riding restrictions

    o No emission standards or certification requirements for competition vehicles

    o Establish transitional emission standards for exhaust

    o Provisions for youth models and zero emission vehicles

    11

  • Updated Proposal – Evaporative Tierso Incorporates additional evaporative emission tiers for early implementation

    years and moves to more stringent standards in the future◦ Low permeation tier – U.S. EPA low permeation hoses and tank standards◦ Low permeation tier with diurnal control◦ EFI or automatic fuel shutoff for carbureted systems◦ Allows transfer of on-road certified evaporative fuel systems as alternative to current

    evaporative standard (TP-933)

    o Tier system is also available for youth and ATV models

    12

  • Proposed Evaporative Tiers - OHMCTier Low Perm (EPA)

    Hose: 15 g/m2/day @ 23CTank: 1.5 g/m2/day @ 28C

    Fuel Injectionor

    Automatic Fuel Shut-Off

    Diurnal ControlCanister: 1gwc/liter

    PRV: 2 psi or equivalent

    TP933 orOn-Road Certified

    System

    I II III

    Youth (I) Youth (II) Youth (III)

    13

  • Proposed Evaporative Tiers – ATV Tier Low Perm (EPA)

    Hose: 15 g/m2/day @ 23CTank: 1.5 g/m2/day @ 28C

    Fuel Injectionor

    Automatic Fuel Shut-Off

    Diurnal ControlCanister: 1gwc/liter

    PRV: 2 psi or equivalent

    TP933

    I II

    Youth (I) Youth (II) Youth (III)

    14

  • Proposed Evaporative Tiers – UTV o No change from current evaporative requirementso UTVs already on course for compliance with TP-933

    o Planning in place since 2013o UTVs not eligible for Red Sticker program

    15

  • Implementation Schedule (Evaporative)

    Type Tier 2022 2023 2024 2025+OHMC I 0% 0% 20% 50%

    II 20% 50% 30% 50%III 80% 50% 50% 0%

    ATV I 80% 80% 80% 80%II 20% 20% 20% 20%

    Youth I 0% 0% 0% 100%II 0% 100% 100% 0%III 100% 0% 0% 0%

    16

    • For models 2020-2021, ATV and OHMC can certify using the U.S. EPA permeation standards• Manufacturers can continue following their current 2018-2021 evap compliance plans

  • Proposed Exhaust Strategy – All OHRV

    o Provide transitional standards that become more stringent over time

    o Stringent exhaust standards help offset emissions increase from relaxed evaporative emissions

    o Zero emissions vehicles included in fleet averaging

    2.0 g HC+NOx 1.2 g HC < 1.2 g HC

    More stringent standards

    17

  • Implementation Schedule (Exhaust)Type 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028+

    OHMC 2.0 g HC 2.0 g HC 1.5 g HC 1. 5 g HC 1.5 g HC 1.2g HC 1.2 g HC

    ATV/UTV 1.1 g HC 1.1 g HC 1.1 g HC 1.0 g HC 1.0 g HC 0.9 g HC 0.9 g HC

    o Fleet averaging over all models for a given type

    o Standards become more stringent over time

    o No required categories, must meet total average

    o Engine-based certification is still allowed per existing regulations

    18

  • Updated Proposal - Youth Models and ZEVo OHMC youth model definition◦ Not to exceed more than 90 cc◦ Seat height – not to exceed 29.5 in

    o ATV youth model definition◦ Not to exceed more than 250 cc

    o Zero Emission Definition◦ Min 750W peak rated power◦ Min 1.5 hr run time at 100% throttle (rated battery capacity/rated motor

    output)

    19

  • Certification Pathwayso In addition to TP-933 testing, manufacturers may certify their evaporative

    systems through the on-road certification test procedure

    o Design-based certification may also be utilized

    o U.S. EPA component certification will be allowed for early implementation years

    o Harmonization of currently approved EOs from other categories

    o Manufacturers can certify to one fleet averaging exhaust standard

    20

  • High emitting

    2-stroke Carb

    Close to current

    standards

    4-stroke EFI

    4-stroke Carb

    2-stroke EFI

    Certification Pathways

    Flexible timing

    Fleet averaging

    CARB certified

    Competition Exempt

    Model Availability

    21

  • Emission Benefits

    22

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

    OHR

    V, R

    OG+

    NOX

    (Ton

    s/Da

    y)

    Calendar Year

    RV2018 Baseline

    Green Sticker MY2022

    Updated Proposal

  • Cost Estimateso Estimated retail cost will be averaged over all the costs submitted

    by manufacturers with added markup◦ Responses received from cost survey◦ Assuming 20% mark up for manufacturers and dealers

    o Estimated costs will be evaluated for low and high volume sales

    o Will include additional cost estimates if received by November 1

    23

  • Next Stepso Proposal may be refined based on stakeholder input

    o CARB prepares proposed regulation

    o February 21, 2019 - Board Hearing to consider amendments

    Post-Rulemaking Activities

    o Outreach on limited use of competition vehicles

    24

  • CARB Contact InformationRegulations, Test Procedures, and Component Certification

    o Scott Monday – (916) 445-9319, [email protected]

    o Scott Bacon – (916) 322-8949, [email protected]

    Emissions Inventory

    o Walter Wong – (626) 450-6184, [email protected]

    o David Chou – (626) 450-6136, [email protected]

    25

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]

  • Questions?

    26

    Red Sticker Proposal WorkshopMeeting OutlineBackgroundKey Elements from Previous WorkshopFeedback Received – Manufacturers/DealersCARB Activities Since Last WorkshopEmissions Inventory UpdateUpdated Annual Sales ForecastUpdated BaselineCARB’s Updated ProposalUpdated Proposal – Unchanged ElementsUpdated Proposal – Evaporative TiersProposed Evaporative Tiers - OHMCProposed Evaporative Tiers – ATV Proposed Evaporative Tiers – UTV Implementation Schedule (Evaporative)Proposed Exhaust Strategy – All OHRVImplementation Schedule (Exhaust)Updated Proposal - Youth Models and ZEVCertification PathwaysModel AvailabilityEmission BenefitsCost EstimatesNext StepsCARB Contact InformationQuestions?