Upload
yaakov
View
31
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges F acing us. Inside Science Norwich: September 30 th 2010. Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal. Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv School of Environmental Sciences/ Norwich Business School: University of East Anglia. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
1
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Inside ScienceNorwich: September 30th 2010
Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us
Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvSchool of Environmental Sciences/ Norwich Business School:
University of East Anglia
• Global Overview – Climate Change Issues
• The UK situation: The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction
• Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community
• The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.
Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us
2
3
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
4
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
• Increasing Incidence of Weather Related Disasters
• September 27 2010: News Flash
• Weather-related natural catastrophes are at an “exceptionally high” level this year, causing more than $65 billion of losses.
• There have been 725 weather-related catastrophes, the second-highest figure recorded for the first nine months of the year since 1980.
• About 21,000 people died in the disasters and insured losses totalled $18 billion.
Bloomberg Press5
Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us
6
19792003
Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite imagery
• في الجليد الصيفالشمالي القطب
المنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه
• الصور ناساالفضاءيه
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
سنوات24تخفيض في ٪ 20•
المناختغير - 1979 اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب
2003
6
Is Global Warming natural or man-made?
Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.
Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.
BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement
Current Energy Requirement
Area Total Demand Population Per Capita
World 12.0 TW 6000 M 2.0 kW
USA 3.0 TW 300 M 10.0 kW
Europe 2.0 TW 350 M 5.7 kW
UK 0.3 TW 60 M 5.0 kW
Practically Achievable: Renewable Energy:-
• 0.01 – 0.1TW - Tidal
• 0.1 – 1.0 TW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes
• 1 -10TW - Hydro; Wind; Waves
• 10 -100TW – Solar
The Future
Population 9 – 10 billion?
1 TeraWatt (TW) = 1 billion kW
Minimum ~20TW
Maximum ~100TW
Likely Range
30 – 40TW
Life Span of Fossil Fuels
Decades: Oil, Gas 235U Tar Sands, Oil Shales
Centuries: Coal, Geothermal, D-T Fusion 238U, 232Th
Millenia: D – D Fusion
Conservation is vital for a Sustainable Renewable Future in the Long Term
Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
bilio
n ba
rrels
per
annu
m
actual discoveries
projected discoveries
demand
Consumption of Oil is outstripping new finds
9
There is a looming Gas Shortage in the UK
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bil
lio
n c
ub
ic m
etre
s
Actual UK production
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
Import Gap
On 13th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports
10
11Per capita Carbon Emissions
UK
How does UK compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
France
11
Carbon Dioxide Emissions including embedded carbon
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
coal oil gas gasCCGT
Biomass PV tidal/wave
Hydro Wind Nuclear
gms-
CO
2 / k
Wh
Highest LowestCCS
some data from Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology: Postnote 268, remainder from NK Tovey research
Carbon Factors for different modes of electricity generation
Carbon Dioxide Emissions including embedded carbon
0
20
40
60
80
100
Biomass PV tidal/ wave Hydro Wind Nucleargm
s-CO2
/ kW
h
Highest
Lowest
CCS
In UK, Coal ~ 900 gms/kWh, oil ~ 800+ gms/kWh CCGT ~ 400 gms/kWhNuclear ~ 10 gms/kWh: Overall ~ 520 – 530 gms/kWh
12
13
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
UKFrance
13
r
Electricity Generation in selected Countries
14
• Global Overview – Climate Change Issues
• The UK situation - The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction
• Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community
• The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.
Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us
15
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
potential contribution to Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently
40%)Available now (but is
now running out)
~2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
UK becomes net importer of
gas in 2004
Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 20% (France 80%) - (currently 15% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could
supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect
this
17
potential contribution to Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently
40+%)Available now (but is
now running out)
~2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Inst
all
ed C
ap
aci
ty (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be
available at scale required until mid 2020s17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
• Could provide a solution for the medium / long term – i.e. 15+ years time
• Demonstration scheme in Germany 30 MW since 2008,
• China also has an operating 30 MW scheme
• UK Government hopes to have four 300 MW demonstration schemes operating by 2015/16
But
• UK has 59000MW of fossil fuel power stations – i.e. 600 times the demonstration schemes
• Will increase fossil fuel burn by 20 -40% - i.e. for every four power stations an extra is needed to support the CCS plant
• Will do little to help situation over next decade.
Various methods potentially available
pre combustion - removing nitrogen in air before combustion
post combustion – separating CO2 from other exhaust gases. 18
19
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Onshore Wind
• 10 first generation turbines at Blood Hill have a total capacity of 2250 kW
• The single neighbouring turbine at Somerton – 1500 kW but generates much more electricity than the 10 combined.
• Swaffham 1 provides ON AVERAGE sufficient power for 900 homes.
• Latest generation are 3000 kW each
2020
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in 2020
Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on
average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and
Ipswich
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Offshore Wind
21
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,
Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Hydro
22
Photovoltaic 10%? available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
20+ p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up
to 10 years to pay back in UK.
Solar PhotoVoltaic ElectrictyResource Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriersCost in
2020
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
23
Mono - crystalline
~ 80 – 100
kWh / sqm / annum
Thin film
~ 60 – 70
kWh / sqm / annum
Poly - crystalline
~ 60 – 80 kWh / sqm / annum
Typical test bed efficiencies 15 – 16% for mono-crystalline - theoretically up to 30%, but practical efficiencies after inversion in real situations ~ 10 – 12%
Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty
23
• Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 9.5%.• Average efficiency over year
is 7.5%
Mono-crystalline Cell Efficiency Poly-crystalline Cell Efficiency
• Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 14% and close to standard test bed efficiency.
• Most projections of performance use this efficiency
• Average efficiency over year is 11.1%
Inverter Efficiencies reduce overall system efficiencies to 10.1% and 6.73% respectively
Efficiency of Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty
24
Overall Performance of Photo Voltaic Arrays in ZICER
Inverters are only 91% efficient
Most use is for computers
DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient
An integrated approach is needed to ensure best performance 25
26262626
Arrangement of Cells on Facade
Individual cells are connected horizontally
As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive
If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected.
Cells active
Cells inactive even though not covered by shadow
2626
27
Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.
Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year.
The New Feed In Tariff form April 1st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported.
But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.
Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty
27
28
Solar Energy Centralised Solar Power
PS10 Solar Tower Seville, Spain 11 MW Capacity28
29
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Photovoltaic 10%? available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
50% ????????
available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
Biofuels/Biomass
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs.
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
Energy Crops 50% ????????
available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Photovoltaic 10%? available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
10+ p
30
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation
There are numerous designs, but expertise in wave power is spread very thinly
Pelamis
31
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation
Oyster
Oyster under test at Bilia Croo
31
32
Tidal Resource
kW/m2
<0.01
0.01
2.90
Resource is measured in terms of kW/m2 of vertical column of water
Tidal Energy – The Resource
32
33
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
Tidal Stream Options for Electricity Generation
34
Tidal Power – Barrage de la Rance, St Malo
Vortices created during generation at La Rance
The Sluice Gates
One of 24 turbines
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
34
35
Cardiff
Newport
Bristol
Weston
Minehead
Beachley Barrage
Shoots Barrage
Cardiff – Weston Barrage
Cardiff - Hinkley Barrage
Minehead – Aberthaw Barrage
Tidal Power – Some Proposed Schemes for the Severn
35
36
Churchill Barrier each could provide Output 78 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney.
Controversy in bringing cables southSave 40000 tonnes of CO2
Tidal Barrage Options for Electricity Generation
37
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Geothermal
38
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
39
If our answer is YES
By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
Our Choices: They are difficult
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
bil
lio
ns
of
kWh
nuclear new nuclear coal
new coal oil renewablesgas medium renewables high renewables
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.
We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.! 40
41
Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 825 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs
Overall Solar Energy Gain
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
kWh
per
day
2007 2008
2009 2010
Technical Solutions: Solar Thermal Energy
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J JMonth
kWh/
day
BSD1 BS01BS02 BS12BS14 BS16BS17 BS26BS27 BS29BS52
Up to 15 installations were monitored at 5 miute intervals for periods up to 15 months
Mean Monthly Solar gain for 11 systems
Some 2 panel systems captured twice the energy in summer months as other 2 panel systems.
3 panel systems
42
42
43
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February
43
44
Effective Low Carbon Strategies requires Involving the local Community
Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly
powered by Wind Turbines
Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and
other vehicles.
Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed 44
• Global Overview – Climate Change Issues
• The UK situation - The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction
• Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community
• The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.
Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us
45
46
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
47
Raising Awareness
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
48
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
kW
h in
per
iod
No of people in household
Electricity Consumption
1 person2 people3 people4 people5 people6 people
• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption
• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times.
Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar
• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising
• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 48
• Global Overview – Climate Change Issues
• The UK situation - The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction
• Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community
• The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.
Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us
49
Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity
Raising awareness on energy use will save money
UK average is 4478 kWh per year at a cost of around £530
• Norwich average is 3535 kWh and is 6th best out of 408 Councils
• Uttlesford average is 5884 kWh and is 396th out of 408
• NK Tovey’s average in a four bedroomed detached house is
<2250 kWh per year to 31st March 2010 [50% of National Average]
a reduction of 25% compared to on 18 months ago.
On average
• Norwich – consumers will be paying 79% of National average
• Uttlesford – consumers will be paying 131% of National average50
Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity
kWh % cost Rank kWh % cost Rank
Norwich 3,535 79% 6 Breckland 5,028 112% 312
Cambridge 4,050 90% 80East Cambridgeshire
5,118 114% 326
Peterborough 4,222 94% 116 Forest Heath 5,174 116% 336Ipswich 4,349 97% 159 Babergh 5,252 117% 343Waveney 4,417 99% 181 South Norfolk 5,347 119% 358Broadland 4,618 103% 231 Suffolk Coastal 5,371 120% 360North Hertfordshire
4,645 104% 240South Cambridgeshire
5,498 123% 374
Huntingdon 4,655 104% 243 North Norfolk 5,641 126% 385Great Yarmouth 4,699 105% 252 Mid Suffolk 5,723 128% 390St Edmundsbury
4,869 109% 280King's Lynn and West Norfolk
5,731 128% 393
Fenland 4,899 109% 287 Uttlesford 5,884 131% 396
Consumption of Electricity in selected Local Authority in East of England • % cost compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities
In Norwich average household emits 1.9 tonnes of CO2
In Uttlesford 3.1tonnes of CO2 51
52
MWh % renewables % renewables
Bedford 351170 13.70% UK Average (2008) 4.77%
Norfolk 503265 11.68% Target for 2007 / 08 7.9%
Cambridge 442202 10.15% Target for 2008/ 09 9.1%
Essex 365204 4.54% Target for 2010 10.40%
Suffolk 141103 3.71% Target for 2020 ~30%
Hertfordshire 35860 0.69%
Proportion of Electricity Generated by Renewables
53
% renewables rank ex 408
Breckland 262923 31.85% 12Great Yarmouth 152739 30.00% 16Mid Suffolk 111488 18.32% 25South Norfolk 34062 4.98% 75Broadland 18228 2.95% 117King's Lynn and West Norfolk 26841 2.54% 129Waveney 14130 1.86% 148North Norfolk 8472 1.27% 181St Edmundsbury 7453 1.04% 189Suffolk Coastal 7570 1.02% 191Babergh 462 0.09% 280Forest Heath 0 0.00% 315Ipswich 0 0.00% 315Norwich 0 0.00% 315
Proportion of Electricity Generated by Renewables
54
1.33 billion people
0.94 billion people
Raw materials
1.03 billion people
Products: 478 M
tonnes
CO 2 increase in
3 years
Aid
& E
du
cation
The Unbalanced Triangular Trade
Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years
Water issues are equally important.
Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”
And Finally
• There are many exciting options for a sustainable low carbon energy system
• We need to address both the short term and long term objectives
• The UK is facing an energy security issue in the next decade
• There needs to be a much more integrated approach to energy supply
• Long term decision making is needed – longer than the life time of a Parliament
• We need to take Energy out of short term Party Politics
Conclusions
55