Recidivism in the Rhode Island Juvenile Corrections Population

Kevin Aucoin, JD & Colleen Caron, Ph.D.Rhode Island Department of Children, Youth & Families

2

Following the recommendations outlined in the Council of Juvenile Corrections Administrators (CJCA) white paper “Defining and Measuring Recidivism” Rhode Island DCYF is examining re-incarceration and recidivism rates for adjudicated youth.

Analyses have been conducted for youth who have been incarcerated at the Rhode Island Training School and for youth who have been sentenced to probation.

Framework

CJCA Definitions CJCA recommends assessing recidivism at

5 points in the process: Arrest Filing of Charges Adjudication or Conviction Commitment to juvenile facility Commitment to adult facility

We are using a new adjudication or conviction to define recidivism for our population.

Barriers The structure of the RI data system has historically

made it difficult to systematically assess recidivism beyond an adjudicated return to the training school. Previous studies have involved hand counting to

determine rates of recidivism. In addition it has been difficult to obtain data from

the adult system. Recently we obtained incarceration (but not probation) data from the adult system.

Our research collaboration with Yale University has resulted in changes to the MIS system. In addition, the Yale team has conducted analyses

to determine re-incarceration & recidivism rates.

5

Cohort defined as the youth who have had an adjudicated stay (14 days or longer) at the Rhode Island Training School. Analyses include:

Examination of re-incarceration (to adult or juvenile corrections).

Examination of recidivism defined as an adjudication that results in incarceration or probation in either the juvenile or adult corrections systems.

Recidivism of Incarcerated Youth

6

•Recidivism analyses for youth sentenced to probation include:▫Recidivism that results in a new sentence of

probation (juvenile or adult systems) or an adjudicated return to the juvenile or adult corrections facilities.

▫Analyses to examine the recidivism patterns for youth whose probation sentence includes placement in a Temporary Community Placement (TCP) facility are planned, but not yet completed.

Recidivism of Youth on Probation

Rhode Island Methods•Recidivism defined as new adjudication (not

a technical VOP) that resulted in: ▫Any sentence within Juvenile Corrections

including: Incarceration at Rhode Island Training School Probation within the juvenile corrections system Incarceration in the Adult Corrections Institute (ACI)

within one or two years of release.

•New adjudications to Adult Probation not included as that data is not yet available.

Rhode Island Training School• Cohort consists of each episode where youth was

released from Rhode Island Training School (RITS) in 2007 (n=296), 2008 (n=267) and 2009 (n=178).▫The 2009 sample only includes youth released

from 1/1/09 to 10/15/09 as follow-up data was only available through 10/15/10.

• Episode defined as a release from an adjudicated stay at RITS (> 14 days).

• Clock starts when the youth is released from the RITS.

Rhode Island Training School: Recidivism Rates for Release Cohorts

*Two year follow-up data is not yet available for the 2009 cohort.

2007 2008 2009Total number of adjudicated releases (RITS stay ≥ 14 days)

296 267 178*

Mean age of juveniles during RITS stay 16.82 SD = 1.19

R: 13-20

16.68 SD=1.33 R: 13-20

16.87SD=1.12R=13-19

Modal age of juveniles during RITS stay 17 17 17

Total number of recidivism events within 1 year of release

66(22.3%)

69 (25.8%)

37(20.8%)

Total number of recidivism events within 2 years of release

103(34.80%)

109 (40.82%)

n/a

RITS Recidivism Results

*2009 sample includes youth released from the RITS between 1/1/09 and 10/15/09 As follow-up data was only available through 10/15/10 two-year recidivism rates are not yet available for this cohort.

Rhode Island Juvenile Probation•Cohort consists of each opening to probation

in 2007 (n=1,141) and 2008 (n=1,101). This includes youth sentenced to RITS who

served their sentence in Temporary Community Placement (TCP) as these youth are open to probation.

Probation episodes that were a continuation of a RITS sentence are not included.

•Recidivism occurs if there is a new charge (> 7 days) after probation episode opens.

Recidivism Rates for Rhode Island Juvenile Probation Entry Cohorts

2007 2008Total number of youth open to probation 1,141 1,110

Mean age of juveniles open to probation 15.72 SD = 1.53

R: 11-21

15.87 SD=1.60 R: 11-20

Modal age of juveniles when opened to probation 16 17

Total number of recidivism events within 1 year of opening 290(25.4%)

236 (21.3%)

Total number of recidivism events within 2 years of opening 385(33.7%)

349 (31.4%)

Probation Recidivism Results

Disposition for Recidivism Events

Probation RITS

Current Status•While we have made significant progress

this year in understanding our recidivism rates, we still have additional work to do.▫Additional changes need to be made to our

information system so that charges are attached to movement through the JC system.

▫Exploration of recidivism for youth served on TCP is needed.

▫More in depth analysis of the trajectories for youth involved in our system are needed.

Predictors of Recidivism•We are interested in understanding whether

there are any risk or protective factors that may predict recidivism for youth involved in the juvenile corrections system.▫Initial work utilizing one cohort of youth from the

RITS sample has begun. ▫Variables explored include:

Demographics (age, gender, race/ethnicity) History of substantiated cases of child abuse and

neglect Charge (delinquent vs other charges)

2007 RITS Release CohortCharacteristics of the Cohort (N=296)

Age Mean Age: 17.33 (SD=1.18)

Modal age: 17

N %Male 280 94.6%Race/Ethnicity•African American/Black 93 31.4%• Caucasian 85 28.7%•Hispanic/Latino 91 30.7%•Multiracial or Other 16 5.4%Indicated Child Abuse and Neglect Report 146 49.3%Delinquency Charge 256 96.3%

Survival Analysis•Survival analysis can be used to estimate

the impact of characteristics or other covariates on the time until recidivism event (Fendrick & Archer, 1998).

•Cox’s proportional-hazards model was used to estimate the relative rate of re-adjudication (hazard function) across time by youth and charge characteristics.

Overall Recidivism (N=296)

Predictors of Recidivism at 1 YearVariables Included in Analysis Hazard’s Ratio

(>1 more likely)Youth Age (older youth as compared to younger)With every 1 year increase in age, 20% decrease risk

.780**

Youth Gender (as compared to males) .311Youth Race/Ethnicity (as compared to Caucasian)

African American 1.097Latino .850Other 1.269

Substantiated Child Abuse and Neglect History (as compared to history of abuse neglect)

.999

Delinquency Charge (as compared to charge for delinquency)* Youth age only variable predicted recidivism for 1 year after release

1.121

Gender and Recidivism

Summary• Rhode Island has made substantial progress in

the past year in aligning our data systems so that we can determine our juvenile recidivism rates based on the definition proposed by CJCA.

• Over the next 6-months we will continue to analyze recidivism rates for different cohorts (e.g., youth on TCP).

• Analyses to understand risk and protective factors that may impact recidivism and the trajectories of youth served by our system will also be conducted.

CJCA - Recidivism CommitteeWe want you!!!Next Steps1. Looking for State's interested in implementing the

standardized recidivism measures within your jurisdiction.

2. Strategize on how this data can be utilized to measure both quantitative and qualitative outcomes on both a federal, state and county level.

3. Connecting the data on recidivism with the positive youth outcome measures.

4. Exploring opportunities for financial assistance to support this initiative.