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Recent migration from the A8 countries and its impact on sending economies - case of Poland Paweł Kaczmarczyk Centre of Migration Research University of Warsaw EURES IS Mobility Seminar, Keflavík May, 30th 2008. Outline of the presentation. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Recent migration from the A8 countries and its impact on
sending economies- case of Poland
Paweł KaczmarczykCentre of Migration Research
University of Warsaw
EURES IS Mobility Seminar, KeflavíkMay, 30th 2008
Outline of the presentation
Past and recent trends in migration from the A8 countries – an overview
What we do know and we do not know about recent mobility of Central Europeans? – case of Poland
Impact of migration on sending countries – demographic and labour market related issues
Conclusions
Scale and trends in migration from CEE
Migration in the pre-transition period (1):
Emigration – rather exceptional but sizeable majority of long-term population movements directed to the West (incl. politically motivated and ethnically motivated movements)
Labour movements – limited, with a few exceptions (ex-Yugoslavia, project-tied employment)
Circular movements of ‘false tourists’
Scale and trends in migration from CEE
Migration in the transition period: Continuation of pre-transition trends
Emigration to the West, incl. the USA (ethnically or politically motivated, family reunion) – on decline since mid 1990s
Temporary employment in Western Europe - incomplete migration – (Bulgaria, Poland, Romania) more or less irregular, short term or circular in nature increase
New trends in migratory behaviour Temporary employment in Western Europe – mainly based on
bilateral agreements Movements between successor states of the ex-USSR Transit migration Inflow - settlement immigration, immigration of migrant workers,
movements of people in need of protection
Features of migration from the CEE countries in the transition period
The outflow much lower and less diversified than in the previous decades
The number of net emigration countries decreased shift to net immigration countries (Hungary, Czech Rep.)
Temporary flows as dominant migration type
Outflow did not matter neither for sending nor for receiving countries scale of irregular migration (?), but: in all regularisation programmes pursued in EU so far around 800,000 irregular migrants from CEE were identified
Poland as the only country sending considerable quantities of people abroad
EU8 citizens residing in EU15 countries, 2000
EU8 citizens residing in UE15 countries:-As percentage of total immigrant population of destination countries (in red) - Actual numbers in thousand and per thousand of total population of their native country (in blue)
Source: Okólski 2007
Post EU accesion movements
Recent accession rounds:
May 2004: Czech Rep., Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia
January 2007: Bulgaria and Romania
But:
Most of the UE countries introduced transitory arrangements with regard to access to the labour market and social security systems:
Free access to labour market: Ireland, Sweden, United Kingdom (limited access to the welfare system)
Limited access to labour market in case of other countries (relaxed in 2006 and 2007)
No access until 2011 announced: Austria and Germany (free access for service providers)
Post-accession flows – UK: Number of visits to the UK by the nationals of the EU8 countries, 2003-2007 (in thous.)
Source: IPS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1
20
03
Q2
20
03
Q3
20
03
Q4
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q2
20
04
Q3
20
04
Q4
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q2
20
05
Q3
20
05
Q4
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q2
20
06
Q3
20
06
Q4
20
06
Q1
20
07
Baltic states
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Poland
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland
Polish citizens:
- 2004: 528
- 2005: 1,041
- 2006: 1,326
- 2007: 1,007*
* First three quarters
Applicants with the Worker Registration Scheme by major nationalities, March 2004 – June 2007, by quarters
Source: Home Office
23465
28070
23920 23205
32850
38310
3294531920
38125
4546046975
3566033905
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
II 2004 III 2004 IV 2004 I 2005 II 2005 III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 II 2006 III 2006 IV 2006 I 2007 II 2007
Czech Rep. Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia
Applicants with the Worker Registration Scheme by major nationalities, March 2004 – May 2007, by quarters
Source: WRS
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Czech Rep Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia
II 2004 III 2004 IV 2004 I 2005 II 2005 III 2005 IV 2005 I 2006 II 2006 III 2006 IV 2006 I 2007
Immigrants allocated a National Insurance number in the UK, 2002-2007 (in thous.), top ten countries
Source: Home Office
2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
India 25,0 India 31,3 Poland 62,6 Poland 171,4 Poland 222,8
Australia 18,9 South Africa
18,4 India 32,7 India 46,0 India 49,3
South Africa
18,6 Australia 17,1 Pakistan 20,3 Lithuania 30,5 Slovakia 28,8
Pakistan 16,8 Pakistan 16,8 South Africa
19,3 Slovakia 26,4 Pakistan 25,3
France 13,8 Portugal 14,0 Australia 16,6 South Africa
24,0 Australia 24,4
Philippines 11,8 China 13,3 Lithuania 15,6 Australia 23,8 Lithuania 24,1
Spain 11,7 France 13,1 France 13,3 Pakistan 22,3 France 20,2
Zimbabwe 10,3 Spain 11,9 China 12,6 France 17,2 South Africa
16,9
Iraq 10,1 Poland 11,2 Portugal 12,2 Latvia 14,2 Germany 15,2
Portugal 9,8 Philippines 10,7 Slovakia 10,5 Germany 13,3 China 13,2
Total 349,3 Total 370,8 Total 439,8 Total 662,4 Total 713,0
Polish migrants in the UK, according to LFS (1945-2006)
Source: Okólski 2007
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Female
Male
Polish residents in the UK:
- Mid 2006: 209 thousand
- End of 2006: 260 thousand
- Mid 2007: 406 thousand
Inflow of EU8 labour to Ireland – Personal Public Service Numbers issued (in thousand)
Source: WB 2006
Poland
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
No of residence permits issued in Sweden, selected EU8 countries, 2003-2005
Source: WB 2006
Post accession flows
Three types of CEE countries with regard to international mobility:
Scale (and dynamics) of migration Poland
High intensity of migration Baltic countries
High (expected) dynamics of migration Romania
Migrant workers from EU8 in Ireland, Sweden and the United Kingdom as per cent of working age population of the countries of origin, 2004-2005
Source: World Bank 2006
Recent migration from Poland: what we do and what we do not know? Scale and dynamics of migration
Data on registered migration (CSO Population Register): 353,000 persons who deregistered themselves and moved abroad between 1990 and 2005
Census data:
The 1995 Microcensus: about 900,000 permanent residents of Poland staying temporarily abroad (2% of the total population)
The 2002 National Census: 786,100 Polish citizens, counted as members of households in Poland, staying abroad for longer than 2 months (1.8% of the population).
CSO estimate (end of 2006): 1,950 thous. persons staying temporarily abroad (3.3% of the total population); post-accession net outflow – 1,120 thous.
LFS: in 2004 on average 250 thousand persons staying abroad for longer than 2 months, 3rd quarter of 2007 – 522 thousand
The total number of Polish citizens staying abroad for longer than 2 months, by major destination countries, in thousand
Total / destination 2002 (May) 2004* 2006* Total 786 1000 1950 European Union 451 750 1550 Austria 11 15 34 Belgium 14 13 28 France 21 30 49 Germany 294 385 450 Ireland 2 15 120 Italy 39 59 85 Netherlands 10 23 55 Spain 14 26 44 Sweden 6 11 25 United Kingdom 24 150 580
* end of the year
Source: CSO 2007.
Recent migration from Poland: what we do and what we do not know?
Features of recent migration from Poland
Predominance of labour migration
Predominance of short-term migration (?)
Dynamics of migration
Distribution of major destination countries
Migration according to LFS data:Polish migrants by length of their stay abroad, 1994-2007 (in thous.)
Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008
Recent migration from Poland - dynamics
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
III.
94
II.9
5
I.9
6
IV.9
6
III.
97
II.9
8
I.9
9
IV.9
9
III.
00
II.0
1
I.0
2
IV.0
2
III.
03
II.0
4
I.0
5
IV.0
5
III.
06
II.0
7
Net changes in the stock of temporary migrants (in thous.)
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Stock of temporary thousand (in thous.)
1st quarter 2nd quarter
3rd quarter 4th quarter
Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008
Recent migration from Poland – dynamics and seasonal features
Ireland: PPS numbers Norway: work permits
Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
2003
-01
-01
2003
-04
-01
2003
-07
-01
2003
-10
-01
2004
-01
-01
2004
-04
-01
2004
-07
-01
2004
-10
-01
2005
-01
-01
2005
-04
-01
2005
-07
-01
2005
-10
-01
2006
-01
-01
2006
-04
-01
2006
-07
-01
2006
-10
-01
2007
-01
-01
2007
-04
-01
2007
-07
-01
all permits permits for seasonal workers
Main destination countries for migrants from Poland before and after accession, in per cent
Source: SOPEMI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
UK
Ge
rma
ny
Ire
lan
d
Ita
ly
US
A
Sp
ain
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Fra
nce
Sw
ed
en
No
rwa
y
Be
lgiu
m
Gre
ece
Au
str
ia
oth
er
EU
co
un
trie
s
oth
er
Eu
rop
ea
n c
ou
ntr
ies
oth
er
cu
ntr
ies
before accession post accession
Migration according to LFS data:Polish migrants by country of destination, 2000-2007, 2nd quarter (in thous.)
Source: SOPEMI
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
France Germany Ireland
United Kingdom United States Italy and Spain
Distribution of pre-accession and post-accession migrants by level of education vis-à-vis general population, in per cent
Source: BAEL (CMR files)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
gene
ral p
opul
atio
nar
ound
the
acce
ssio
n da
te
pre-
acce
ssio
nm
igra
nts
post
-acc
essi
onm
igra
nts
gene
ral p
opul
atio
nar
ound
the
acce
ssio
n da
te
pre-
acce
ssio
nm
igra
nts
post
-acc
essi
onm
igra
nts
Tertiary, academic Post-secondary Secondary technical
Secondary comprehensive Vocational Lower
All At age 25-29
Selectivity of recent mobility of Poles – educational attainment
Migrant selectivity indexes (SI) for tertiary education
Selectivity of recent mobility of Poles – educational attainment
Migrant selectivity indexes (SI) for vocational education
Demographic effects
Percentage net loss of population aged 15 or more due to temporary outflow in the post-accession period, by sex and the level of education (as of January 1st, 2007)
Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008
MM KM
Demographic effects
Percentage net loss of population aged 15 or more due to temporary outflow in the post-accession period, by region and type of locality (as of January 1st, 2007)
Age 20-24 (average: 8.8) Age 25-29 (average: 9.3)
top bottom top bottom
% loss
locality type and region % loss region %loss
region % loss region
21.118.117.317.014.714.614.313.813.813.4
village, Podkarpackietown -100, Lubuskie
town -100, Malopolskietown 100+, Lubuskie
village, Podlaskievillage, Swietokrzyskie
village, Dolnoslaskietown -100, Dolnoslaskie
village, Lubelskietown 100+, Podlaskie
2.22.72.93.33.43.43.43.53.74.5
village, Wielkopolskievillage, Opolskie
town -100, Warminsko-Mazurskie
town -100, Pomorskievillage, Pomorskie
town 100+, Wielkopolskietown -100, Wielkopolskie
town 100+, Zachodnipomorskietown 100+, Małopolskie
town 100+, Pomorskie
24.421.520.018.516.716.115.413.912.612.4
town 100+, Warminsko-Mtown 100+, Podlaskie
village, Swietokrzyskievillage, Podkarpackie
town -100, Wielkopolskietown -100, Podlaskie
town -100, Malopolskietown -100, Podkarpackie
town -100, Zachodniopomorskie
town 100+, Zachodniopomorskie
3.33.83.84.34.45.05.05.16.16.1
town -100, Slaskietown 100+, Opolskietown -100, Opolskie
town 100+, Malopolskietown 100+, Mazowieckie
town 100+, Wielkopolskie
village, Wielkopolskaietown -100, Lubuskie
village, Lubuskietown -100, Lodzkie
Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008
Radical relief to labour market – a decline in unemployment
Unemployment rate (annual) in 2006 compared to 2004
EU15 decline from 8.0% to 7.4%
decline in EU8 countries (exception – Hungary):
Lithuania by 5.8 points (to 5.6%) Poland by 5.2 points (to 13.8%) Slovakia by 4.8 points (to 13.4%) Estonia by 3.8 points (to 5.9%) Latvia by 3.6 points (to 6.8%) Czech R. by 1.2 points (to 7.1%) Slovenia by 0.3 points (to 6.0%)
Migrants from Poland and unemployment rate according to LFS, 1994-2007
Source: GUS, Kepinska 2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1994
/Q1
1994
/Q3
1995
/Q1
1995
/Q3
1996
/Q1
1996
/Q3
1997
/Q1
1997
/Q3
1998
/Q1
1998
/Q3
1999
/Q1
1999
/Q3
2000
/Q1
2000
/Q3
2001
/Q1
2001
/Q3
2002
/Q1
2002
/Q3
2003
/Q1
2003
/Q3
2004
/Q1
2004
/Q3
2005
/Q1
2005
/Q3
2006
/Q1
2006
/Q3
2007
/Q1
Un
emp
loym
ent r
ate
(in
%)
Mig
ran
ts (i
n th
ousa
nd)
Migrants Unemployment rate
Source: WB 2007
Labour shortages: effect of the outflow?
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland
I Q 2005 I Q 2006 I Q 2007
Vacancy rates, 2005-2007
Source: WB 2006
Vacancy rates by sector, 2004-2007 (in per cent)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
1Q 2004 1Q 2005 1Q 2006 1Q 2007
Czech Republic Latvia Lithuania Poland
Manufacturing
Construction
Trade
Migration effect on labour market in Poland – labour shortages (by sector)
Source: WB 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4Q 2005 1Q 2006 2Q 2006 3Q 2006 4Q 2006 1Q 2007 2Q 2007
Manufacturing Construction Trade Transport Other
But: very good economic climate – creation of jobs
Impact of migration on the Polish labour market, 2000-2006
Source: Kaczmarczyk and Okólski 2008
12 000
12 500
13 000
13 500
14 000
14 500
15 000
15 500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2000
/Q1
2000
/Q3
2001
/Q1
2001
/Q3
2002
/Q1
2002
/Q3
2003
/Q1
2003
/Q3
2004
/Q1
2004
/Q3
2005
/Q1
2005
/Q3
2006
/Q1
2006
/Q3
2007
/Q1
Empl
oyed
and
peo
ple
out o
f lab
our f
orce
Une
mpl
oyed
and
mig
rant
s
Migrants Unemployed Employed Out of labour force
Situation on the Polish labour market prior to the first migration (no. of cases)
Source: CMR ethnosurvey 2007
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
employed without job but actively seeking without job and not seeking
continues education at public school continues education at private school takes care over the household
Conclusions
Assessment of recent migratory processes in A8 countries – data limitations and its consequences?
Impacts of migration on sending countries: Importance of the scale of recent ouflow Importance of the selectivity of recent migration: stronger
propensity to move was observed among people originating from economically backward regions, characterised by very limited employment opportunities, a high proportion of the population living in medium-sized or small towns and in villages, and a relatively large semi-subsistence sector brain overflow
Labour migration – a chance or a threat for the Polish labour market? (structural changes possible, new model of professional career, internal mobility, entrepreneurship)
Tentative conclusion - ‘labour market pre-emption’, ‘crowding-out’ hypothesis
Return migration Transition into net immigration area?