Real-time PBL analysis system using profilers observations

TheNYS EarlyWarningWeatherDetectionSystem

Real-timePBLanalysissystemusingprofilersobservationsfromTheNewYorkStateMesonet

SarahLuUniversityatAlbany

StateUniversityofNewYork


Outline

• Background• Systemdescriptionand

progress• Enhancedsites• PBLPilotwithNCEP


2016ICAP WORKINGGROUPMEETING,NCWCPTheNYSMESONET3

• ScarcityofweatherobservationsinNY• Long-termtrendsofheavierrainfall• Recenthistoryofveryexpensivehigh-impactevents• Stateeconomyisespeciallysensitivetoweather• Valuableforemergencymanagement,utilities,ground

transportation(roads,rail),aviation,agriculture,etc.

WhyaMesonetinNewYork?



27AutomatedSurfaceObservingStations(ASOS)


SomeGapsinRadarCoverage

NWS&EmergencyManagersareoftenBlind

ScarcityofweatherobservationsinNY




StateEconomicSensitivitytoWeatherVariabilitybyGSP

Otherstateshaverealizedtheeconomicvalue

*Lazo etal.,2011(BAMS)

Stateeconomyisespeciallysensitivetoweather



BriefOverview

• Comprisedof125stations,including:– Soilmoisture/temperatureat3depths– Camera(stillimages)– 20snowsites– 17profiler(“enhanced”)sites– 17fluxsites

• NYSMesonet awarded1April2014

• Datacollected,quality-controlled,anddisseminatedevery5min

• Have50+sitesnowoperational

• All125sitesoperationalby31December2016




• 125Sites

• Spaced~19milesapart

• Reportsevery5minutes

125StandardSites20SnowSites17EnhancedSites



SomeSiteSelectionConsiderations

• WMOstandards:– Generallyflatterrain– Noobstructions(notrees,pavement)within300ft

• Generalnetworkconfigurationwith19milespacing• Arearepresentativeness– valley,highterrain,crops,forests

• NWSinput– areaspronetoflooding;gapsinobservations

• FEMAguidelines:– Nofloodzones,nowetlands– Nohistoricalproperty– Noarchaeologicallysensitiveareas

• Requirea33’x33’area



StandardObservations• Precipitation• Temperature• Humidity• WindSpeedandDirection• SolarRadiation• BarometricPressure• SoilTemperature(5,25,50cm)• SoilMoisture(5,25,50cm)• SitePhotos

StandardSite



StandardObservations• Precipitation• Temperature• Humidity• WindSpeedandDirection• SolarRadiation• BarometricPressure• SoilTemperature(5,25,50cm)• SoilMoisture(5,25,50cm)• SitePhotos



LIDARs• Verticalwindprofilesupto3kmAGL• SelectedRNRG/Leosphere 100S

MicrowaveRadiometers• Verticaltemperatureandmoisture

profilesupto10kmAGL• SelectedRadiometrics MP-3000A

SunPhotometer(MMR/SSI)• Multi-scanMulti-channelRadiometer• Shadowband SkyImager• Designed/builtbyMesonet/ASRC

17EnhancedStationLocatedwithin500mofStandardSite



OutputfromEnhanced/Standarddata:§ Clearsky/cloudclassification--- skycondition§ Accurateradiation(spectral,direct/diffuse)§ Profiles:Temp.,RH,Wind,andaerosols§ PBLheight,cloudbaseheight,LCL§ Aerosols:AOD&profile,SSA,AngstromCoefficient§ Clouds:cloudfraction,COD,Effectiveradius§ Forecastindices(CAPE,k,etc)

Complexprocess:§ Characterizemeasurement,retrievaluncertainties§ Developrobustretrievalalgorithms§ Productsdevelopedfromsynergisticretrieval/analysisapproach(multiplesensors)

EnhancedStation



Enhanced(Profiler) Sites



Wareetal2014

Profilerdataofatmospherictemperatureandstability

WeatherballoonderivedCAPEvaluefrom12ZonJune29thevolvedfromnearzeroto3,000J/kginjustacoupleofhoursdemonstratingtheadvantageofcontinuousprofiling

Novakovskaia etal2013



TheimpactofimprovedboundarylayeronCMAQozoneforecasts

• Comparisonofdaily8hrmaxozonepredictionfromtheNAM-CMAQwiththeoperationalCB-IVchemicalmechanismtoobservationsfromthemonitoringnetworks(e.g.,EPAAIRNow,coloredcircles,ppb)using– a)theCMAQdefaultderivedPBLheight– b)theRTMAPBLheightvalidAugust10,

2010• Theozonesimulationshowsimprovement

overtheBaltimore-WashingtonurbancorridorwhenusingthePBLanalysis.

a)

b)

JeffMcQueen



AerosolBackscatterProfilefrom

Lidar

Hicksetal(2015)HybridRetrieval

PBLHeight(Err,WTC,LCL)

ConsensusPBLfrommultiple

sensors

PBLAnalysis/RTMA

Exampleofproduct(PBL)developedfrommultiplesensorsandalgorithms

MWRP(stability)

SurfaceObs



DevelopingunifiedPBLanalysissystem-- ASRCforNYSandNCEPCONUS

LeverageprototypePBLanalysisestablishedbyNOAA-NASA-HowardROSESprojectin2007(McQueen)

Objectives:• DevelopnearrealtimePBLproductsbyblendingmodelestimatesandmulti-

platformprofileobservations(aircrafts,radiosonde,andNYSmesonet).• DemonstrateuseofNYSmesonet verticalprofilesforreal-timePBLanalysis.• DemonstratetheimpactofPBLanalysisonairquality/dispersionmodeling.

UAlbany/ASRC-NCEPCollaborationonReal-Time PBLAnalysisStudy



Real-timePBLanalysissystemusingmulti-platformprofileobservations

• DerivationofPBLheightsfromthefollowingobservationdata:– Radiosondes,aircraftprofiles,andNYS

mesonet lidar profiles– optionaldata:MPLNETlidars,ceilometer,

andCALIPSO,ifresourceisavailable• Evaluationofmodel1st guessusedforRTMA:

– NAM– RAP– HRRR

• AssimilationofPBLheightsintoReal-TimeMesoscaleAnalysis(RTMA),whichis2DVARGridpoint StatisticalInterpolation(GSI)analysissystem

• FinalproductwillbePBLheightanalysis(2.5kmresolution,hourly)

RTMA Analysis

Profileobservations

Modelguess(NAM,RAP,HRRR)

Dispersion/airqualitymodelapplication

+1hr

Repeataspreviouscycle

CycleN CycleN+1

ASRC-NCEPrealtimePBLanalysissystem

BoundaryLayerAnalysis

18

2DVARGSI

PBLAnalysis2.5km,hourly



PBLheightsfromNAMmodelandaircraftobservations



PBLheightdefinedusingradiosondeandaircraft(Dallas-FortWorthairport)

20

Example:definedPBLheightreasonablywithRi no.

Ri no:0.25



QUESTIONS,THOUGHTS,COMMENTS

JerryBrotzge,[email protected]

ChrisThorncroft,PhDChair,UAlbany [email protected]

Everette Joseph,PhDDirector,UAlbany [email protected]

Documents

Real-time PBL analysis system using profilers observations