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Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin. by: Mac McKee, Director and Abedalrizq Khalil Graduate Research Assistant Utah Water Research Laboratory Utah State University. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
by:by:
Mac McKee, DirectorMac McKee, Director
andand
Abedalrizq KhalilAbedalrizq KhalilGraduate ResearchGraduate ResearchAssistantAssistant
Utah Water ResearchUtah Water Research LaboratoryLaboratoryUtah State UniversityUtah State University
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Abedalrizq Khalil:Abedalrizq Khalil:
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Overview:Overview:
• about the Sevier Basinabout the Sevier Basin
• the Sevier River Water Users databasethe Sevier River Water Users database
• development of real-time management modelsdevelopment of real-time management models
• implementationimplementation
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
The Sevier River Basin…The Sevier River Basin…
N
0 5 10 15 20
Statute Miles
Garfield Co.
Kane Co.
Iron Co.
Iron Co.
Garfield
Co.
Piute Co.
Garfield Co.
Beaver Co.
Piute Co.
Beaver Co.
Sanpete Co.
Millard Co.
Sanpete Co.
Juab Co.
Juab Co.
Millard Co.
Juab Co.
Tooele Co.
Millard Co.
Beaver Co.
Gunnison Bend
Reservoir
DMAD
Reservoir
Sevier
Bridge
Reservoir
Rocky Ford
Reservoir
Koosharem
Reservoir
Piute
Reservoir
Otter
Cr.
Res.
Delta
Fillmore
Richfield
Salina
Panguitch
Sevier
Lake
San Pitch River
Otter Creek
Sevier River
Sevier
River
Sevier
River
Utah
d70
d 70
d 15
d15
d50
d50
d50
d4
d 89
d89
d 89
East Fork Sevier River
Sevier
River
• about 12.5% of the area of Utahabout 12.5% of the area of Utah
• arid climatearid climate
• flows to a terminal lakeflows to a terminal lake
• surface water is mostly used for surface water is mostly used for irrigationirrigation
• managed by a single entity, the managed by a single entity, the Sevier River Water UsersSevier River Water Users
• has been heavily instrumentedhas been heavily instrumented
• many diversion/release many diversion/release structures are remotely structures are remotely controlled via the webcontrolled via the web
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
The Sevier River Basin: Piute ReservoirThe Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir releasesThe Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir releases
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir outlet controls (replaced)The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir outlet controls (replaced)
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
The Sevier River Basin: automated controls for canal diversionsThe Sevier River Basin: automated controls for canal diversions
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
RichfieldRichfieldCanalCanaldiversiondiversionstructurestructure
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
The Sevier River Basin: canal flow monitoringThe Sevier River Basin: canal flow monitoring
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
The Sevier River Basin:The Sevier River Basin:weather stationweather station
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Data and Information: The Sevier River Water UsersData and Information: The Sevier River Water Users
Web-based Web-based dissemination of dissemination of informationinformation
www.sevierriver.org
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Data and Information: The Sevier River Water UsersData and Information: The Sevier River Water Users
Reservoir Reservoir volumes…volumes…
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Data and Information: The Sevier River Water UsersData and Information: The Sevier River Water Users
Reservoir Reservoir discharges and discharges and elevations…elevations…
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Data and Information: The Sevier River Water UsersData and Information: The Sevier River Water Users
River and canal River and canal flow conditions…flow conditions…
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Using only raw data, available on a near real-time basis, theUsing only raw data, available on a near real-time basis, theSevier River Water Users have:Sevier River Water Users have:
• achieved substantial improvement in system efficiencyachieved substantial improvement in system efficiency
• greatly improved management during recent years of greatly improved management during recent years of drought for many canal companiesdrought for many canal companies
• reduced water disputes, especially upper basin versus reduced water disputes, especially upper basin versus lower basinlower basin
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Availability of raw data could also make analysis possible:Availability of raw data could also make analysis possible:
• development and application of near real-time development and application of near real-time operations models, especially for system components operations models, especially for system components with long travel timeswith long travel times
o canal diversionscanal diversionso reservoir releasesreservoir releases
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Applications to date:Applications to date:
• six-month ahead forecasts of monthly flows at Hatchsix-month ahead forecasts of monthly flows at Hatch
• 24-hour forecasts of flows on Clear Creek24-hour forecasts of flows on Clear Creek
• daily operations of Sevier Valley/Piute Canaldaily operations of Sevier Valley/Piute Canal
• daily operations of Piute Reservoirdaily operations of Piute Reservoir
• hourly operations of Piute Reservoirhourly operations of Piute Reservoir
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
%2
#0
kj
GF
^
LOWER SEVIER
MIDDLE SEVIERSEVIER LAKE
UPPER SEVIER
EAST FORK SEVIER
Sevier River Basin and SnoTel Stations
0 10 20 305Miles
π
GF SnoTel Station at Harris Flat
^ SnoTel Station at Kimberly Mine
SnoTel Station at Midway Valley
Flow Gages
kj Flow at Sevier River at Hatch
%2 Vermilion Canal
#0 Clear Creek at Sevier
Sevier River
Piute Reservoir
%2
#0
kj
GF
^
LOWER SEVIER
MIDDLE SEVIERSEVIER LAKE
UPPER SEVIER
EAST FORK SEVIER
Sevier River Basin and SnoTel Stations
0 10 20 305Miles
π
GF SnoTel Station at Harris Flat
^ SnoTel Station at Kimberly Mine
SnoTel Station at Midway Valley
Flow Gages
kj Flow at Sevier River at Hatch
%2 Vermilion Canal
#0 Clear Creek at Sevier
Sevier River
Piute Reservoir
%2
#0
kj
GF
^
MIDDLE SEVIER
EAST FORK SEVIER
LOWER SEVIER
UPPER SEVIER
Sevier River Basin and SnoTel Stations
0 3 61.5
Miles
%2
#0
kj
GF
^
MIDDLE SEVIER
EAST FORK SEVIER
LOWER SEVIER
UPPER SEVIER
Sevier River Basin and SnoTel Stations
0 3 61.5
Miles
The Sevier River Basin…The Sevier River Basin…
20
Modeling of Piute Reservoir Releases:Modeling of Piute Reservoir Releases:
meet water orders,minimize spills
Piute Reservoir
Vermillion“Reservoir”
ClearCreek
Sevier Valley/Piute Canal
JosephCanal
ElsinoreCanal
RichfieldCanal
VermillionCanal
Monroe/SouthBend Canal
MonroeCanal
BrooklynCanal
AnnabellaCanal
• hourly modelhourly model
• forecast, hour-by-hour, the forecast, hour-by-hour, the reservoir release recommended to reservoir release recommended to meet downstream canal diversionsmeet downstream canal diversions
• capture and report information capture and report information about uncertainty of the forecast about uncertainty of the forecast releaserelease
• learn from mistakes and improve learn from mistakes and improve future forecastsfuture forecasts
Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Modeling approaches:Modeling approaches:
• ““intelligent systems” approach (versus physically based)intelligent systems” approach (versus physically based)
• several methods examined:several methods examined: neural netsneural nets ““lazy learners”lazy learners” methods from statistical learning theory: support vector methods from statistical learning theory: support vector
machines; relevance vector machinesmachines; relevance vector machines
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Problems encountered:Problems encountered:
• annual hydrologic changes make pattern recognition very annual hydrologic changes make pattern recognition very difficultdifficult
• farmers can’t make up their mindsfarmers can’t make up their minds
• farmers, ditch riders, and canal operators hedge their betsfarmers, ditch riders, and canal operators hedge their bets
• reservoir operators don’t listen to them, anywayreservoir operators don’t listen to them, anyway
The methods we are using must be able to recognizeThe methods we are using must be able to recognizepatterns in order to provide a reliable prediction of howpatterns in order to provide a reliable prediction of howmuch water to release/divert, and they should be smartmuch water to release/divert, and they should be smartenough to retrain themselves when their predictions enough to retrain themselves when their predictions become poor.become poor.
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Inputs“Novelty” Detection State PredictionState Prediction
No
Perform Model Selection
Update decision rule (RVM)
Feature Extraction
Yes
Ad
aptive S
imu
lated A
nn
ealing
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Input data:Input data:
• Data that reflect the physical forces that cause water Data that reflect the physical forces that cause water demands and streamflow in tributary streams to demands and streamflow in tributary streams to fluctuate throughout the day and from one day to the fluctuate throughout the day and from one day to the next are utilized (13 total inputs, each hour): next are utilized (13 total inputs, each hour):
hourly total solar radiationhourly total solar radiation
previous-day hourly streamflowprevious-day hourly streamflow
precipitationprecipitation
air temperatureair temperature
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Model Selection…Model Selection…
The influence of The influence of the “the “distracted distracted variables”variables” is is suppressed by suppressed by very low very low estimates of their estimates of their corresponding corresponding scale parameter, scale parameter, . .
Input dimension
Norm
alize
d s
cale
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
1-Apr-0316-Apr-031-May-0316-May-0331-May-0315-Jun-0330-Jun-0315-Jul-0330-Jul-0314-Aug-0329-Aug-0313-Sep-0328-Sep-0313-Oct-0328-Oct-0312-Nov-03
Hourly reservoir release (cfs)
__Predicted interval
Observed
Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (no “drift” correction)Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (no “drift” correction)
27
Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Detection of system “drift”…Detection of system “drift”…
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Predicted interval
Observed
Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (with “drift” correction)Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (with “drift” correction)
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Time
Scaled R
eleases
(cfs)
P
impress them with lots of colors…impress them with lots of colors…
Uncertainty estimate and displays…Uncertainty estimate and displays…
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Residuals can Residuals can be used to be used to judge model judge model performance performance
-3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
-0.14
-0.12
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
Standard Normal Quantiles
Quantiles of Input Sample
QQ Plot of Sample Data versus Standard Normal
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
What comes next:What comes next:
• programming the “model” as a stand-alone package--programming the “model” as a stand-alone package--happening nowhappening now
• ““blind” testing the package against 2004 data--happening blind” testing the package against 2004 data--happening nownow
• implement on the Sevier River Water Users web site--implement on the Sevier River Water Users web site--Roger Hansen wants to hook the model up to the Piute Roger Hansen wants to hook the model up to the Piute Reservoir gate controllersReservoir gate controllers
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Real-Time Management of Irrigation FacilitiesReal-Time Management of Irrigation Facilitiesin the Sevier River Basinin the Sevier River Basin
Visit us at: http://www.engineering.usu.edu/uwrl/Visit us at: http://www.engineering.usu.edu/uwrl/
or contact: Mac McKee, 435-797-3188, [email protected]