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8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
1/14
In This Issue
Two ronts. By most measures, the economy is on the mend. Does that mean
housing is as well? In his commentary this month, NAR Chie Economist Lawrence Yun
says the answer depends on two potentially big support actors: Jobs and Condence.
Read more.
Making sense o economic data. Liestyle, amily, and the enjoyment o owning
ones own home are important considerations or consumers when deciding to purchase
a home. Obviously buyers will look at price, availability and trends. But changes in the
economy and potential changes as well play a roll in a buyers decision. Were bom-
barded daily with the latest economic data. What economic indicators are the most sig-
nicant or real estate and or real estate proessionals and their clients? Jed Smith, NARs
Managing Director o Quantitative Research, gives us an overview. Read more.
Keeping up to date with Research Update. Beginning in June, another a new
eature will make its debut in Real Estate Insights. Research Update will be a regular
column in this newsletter, and will provide inormation about developments in thereal estate industry, current NAR Research studies, as well as links to other insightul
inormation. Meredith Dunn o NAR Research Communications provides a sneak peak
at what you will nd in Research Update. Read more.
Single Women A Signifcant Market.The most recent NAR Profle o Home
Buyers and Sellers indicates that single women account or a signicant share o home
buyers. Indeed, these home purchasers represent the second largest share o adult house-
holds who purchase homes. Research Economist Jessica Lautz takes a look at this market
and how single emale buyers dier rom other home purchasers.Read more.
Pending home sales rose in February, showing a healthy gain rom January as wellas rom a year ago. NARs Pending Home Sales Index, a orward-looking indicator
based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 rom a downwardly
revised 90.2 in January, and was 17.3 percent above February 2009 when it was 83.2.
All regions o the country posted year-over-year gains, and all regions except the West
registered monthly increases. Read more.
April 2010
Real Intelligence
Real Advantages
Table o Contents
Real Estate Monitor 2
Economic Commentary:Two Fronts 4
U.S. Economic Forecast andOutlook Table and Charts 6
In Focus:Looking at Key Economic Data 8
Using NAR Research:Research Update 10
Market Intelligence: SingleWomen Homebuyers 11
Links to Statistical Tables 13
Resources From NAR Research 14
Visit us on the web at
www.realtor.org/reinsights
Theres always more
INSIGHT-ul ino. Wewill continue over the next
several months to upgrade
and update Real Estate IN-SIGHTS. In the meantime, remember to
click on the special For more ino arrowicons throughout this issue. By clicking on
this icon when reading INSIGHTS, you canautomatically link to another web site ormore detailed inormation.
http://www.realtor.org/reinsightshttp://www.realtor.org/reinsights8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
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Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS2
Existing-home sales eased 0.6% in February toa seasonally adjusted annual rate o 5.02 millionunits. Year over year, resales were up 7.0%. The
national median home price or an eisting home was$165,100. At the end o the month, total housing inven-
tory was at an 8.6 month supply at the current sales pace.
New home sales also declined in February by 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate o 308,000 units. New
sales were o 13.% rom a year ago. While the inventory onew homes available or sale at the end o February was down28% rom February o 2009, the months supply was a 9.2 a
3.4% increase rom January.
Housing starts declined 5.9% in February to a season-ally adjusted annual rate o 575,000 units, but starts were
up slightly by 0.2% rom a year ago. Housing permits
generally a reliable indicator o uture starts were o 1.6%, butwere up 11.3% rom February o 2009.
Housing aordability remains at high levels. NARs
Housing Aordability Inde stood at 176.0 in February,down rom Januarys reading o 177.5. Increases in several
o the components o the inde, including mortgage rates,qualiying income, and a small month-to-month increase in themedian price o eisting homes contributed to the decline.
Mortgage rates The average 30 year ed rate mortgage
decreased slightly by 2 basis points in March romFebruary to 4.97%. With still-historic low lending costs,
consumers scramble to secure low rates as many economistsepect a rate hike during the second hal o the year. The aver-age rate was at 5 percent in March o 2009.
Employment The economy created 162,000 jobs dur-
ing March the biggest job gain in three years. Addingto payrolls in March were manuacturers, temporary
help services, the health care sector, and leisure and hospitality.The ederal government also added 48,000 temporary Censuspositions. But those newly created jobs had no impact on the
unemployment rate, which was unchanged at 9.7%.
Economic growth The economy grew at an annual rate
o 5.6% in the ourth quarter o 2009. Growth in thethird quarter o last year was 2.2% and GDP registered a
-5.4% growth rate in the ourth quarter o 2008. This is the thirdestimate o GDP growth, based on more complete data, and is
o rom the previous estimate o 5.9%. Increases in consumerspending, eports, ed investment and equipment and sotware
contributed to the growth.
Monthly Indicator Recent Figures Forecast
Likely DirectionOver the NextSix Months
Feb 2010 5,020 Jan 2010 5,050Feb 2009 4,690
Feb 2010 308 Jan 2010 315
Feb 2009 354
Feb 2010 575 Jan 2010 611
Feb 2009 574
Feb 2010 176.0
Jan 2010 177.5Feb 2009 180.7
Mar 2010 4.97%
Feb 2010 4.99%Mar 2009 5.00%
Mar 2010 +162
Feb 2010 -1412-month
total -2,320
2009:IV +5.6%
2009:III +2.2%2008:IV -5.4%
Declines in theimmediate months aterta credit ends
Remaining largely atsuppressed levels until
2011
Inaccessibility oconstruction loans
holding back ull
recovery
Modest decline rom
super high levels
Recovering economy
and high budget decitorces up rates
Job creation momentum
appears intact
To epand but not
robustly as wouldnormally happen post-recession
Notes: All rates are seasonally adjusted. Existing home sales, new home sales and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown as month-to-month change inthousands. Sources: NAR, Bureau o the Census , Bureau o Labor Statistics and Freddie Mac. This report reects data as o April 2, 2010. Compiled by Wannasiri Chompoopet, Ken Fearsand Lawrence Yun.
REAL ESTATE MONITOR
http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.htmlhttp://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/http://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginxhttp://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.htmlhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
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Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS3
Pending home sales rose in February. NARs pending home sales inde rose 8.2% inFebruary to 97.6. Februarys inde was 17.3% ahead o the reading in February 2009.
On a year over year basis, the inde rose in all our regions o the country. The Pending
Home Sales Inde is a orward-looking indicator based on pending sales o eistinghomes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transac-tion has not yet closed. Sales are usually nalized within one to two months o signing.
The inde is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percento transactions or eisting-home sales. In developing the model or the inde, it wasdemonstrated that the level o monthly sales contract activity rom 2001 through 2004
paralleled the level o closed eisting-home sales in the ollowing two months. Pleasenote there is a closer relationship between annual inde changes (rom the same
month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales perormance than with month-to-month comparisons. An inde o 100 is equal to the average level o contract activity
during 2001, which was the rst year to be eamined, as well as the rst ove consecutive record years or eisting-home sales. The improvementin pending sales in February is another hopeul sign or housing, potential-
ly signaling a second surge o home sales in response to the home buyerta credit.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Feb pJan rDecNovOctSeptAugJulJunMayAprMarFeb
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010
Thousands
Pending
SalesIndex
2009
EHS PHS
Source: NAR Research
Pending Home Sales(existing home sales lagged by 1-2 months)
NARS PENDING HOME SALES INDEx
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/04/phs_gainhttp://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/04/phs_gain8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
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Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS4
Well, we may as well get ready or it. Yes, mortgage ratescontinue at historic lows, averaging around the 5-percent
mark recently. But rates are likely to rise. By December o
this year, the average mortgage rate could be close to 6percent perhaps as high at 6.5 percent. Why? The reasonsor the increase are the macroeconomic orces o a recovering
economy and a very high budget decit. I the U.S. governmenthas trouble borrowing and has to raise interest rates to attractinvestors to purchase U.S. debt, then the rest o the private
sector will also pay higher interest rates.The good news rom that somewhat sobering scenario is that
consumer price infation will remain relatively benign and wagegrowth tepid, keeping the lid on borrowing rates and preventing
them rom rising too high. I do not oresee the mortgage rate
going above 7 percent, at least or a prolonged period, in thenext two years. Those engaged in the jumbo loan market or
commercial real estate will note that rates are already thathigh. But current high rates on jumbo and commercial real
estate loans are due to the lack o government guarantees.As the nancial market exhibits clear signs o stabilization andas banks continue to build up their capital buer, it is only a
matter o time beore lenders start lending to non-governmentbacked sectors. So the underwriting standards or jumbo and
commercial real estate mortgages could become less stringentrom improvements in the bank capital situation just as interest
rates on conventional and FHA mortgages begin to rise.So, down the road we will have to ace into the headwinds
o higher mortgage rates on conventional and FHA loans, as
well as the expiration o the home buyer tax credit (which endsin April or contract signings). Foreclosures also will remain
troubling, as they will surely be just as high this year as last year.Is housing headed or more trouble or or a ull recovery? The
answer depends on two potentially big support actors: Jobs andCondence.
Jobs
Potential home buyers (both rst-timers and repeat buyers)who hold stable jobs respond to mortgage rate changes. But a
new cohort o stable job holders needs to be created in orderto sustain housing demand. In March, we saw the rst meaningul
job additions to the economy in more than three years as a net162,000 new workers (payrolls) were added to the economy.
Two Fronts: Jobs and Confdenceby Lawrence Yun, NAR Chie Economist
Marchs job creation gure looks light in the atermath o8 million brutal layos over the past two years, and it will take
some time to make up the dierence. From April to the end o
2010, one million jobs could be added to the economy. Anothertwo million could be in the ong next year. It may take ourull years to ully recover all the job losses, but at least the
darkest part o the job tunnel is behind us. Even the high-payingbut hard-hit manuacturing sector appears to have turned thecorner with 17,000 job gains. Surprisingly, the construction
sector added jobs as well, despite very weak housing starts anda dearth o commercial construction. Inrastructure spending no
doubt is helping. Employment in rental-and-leasing also rose by1,800. Separately, and to gauge competition, NAR membership
in March was 1.063 million, little changed rom the 1.068 millionone year ago, though down rom the peak 1.4 million membersin 2007. Past patterns indicate that NAR membership rises rom
spring well into autumn, beore a seasonal dip in winter.
Confdence
A second actor that will be important in supporting thehousing market is consumers views regarding home purchases.
In the past three years, most metro markets experiencedsuccessive price declines; rational consumers asked why buy
now when I can buy later or less? Renters have been stayingput or an average 19 months in recent times beore makinga move versus the typical 14 months (this, according to a
Wall Street Journalreport). Census data suggests suppressedhousehold ormation in the past two years meaning more
people living with roommates or with parents and so not
seeking their own housing.But with home prices showing signs o stabilization, the
change in attitude towards home buying could be at hand.NARs median home price data in February indicated only a
slight decline rom 12 months earlier, while the Case-Shillerprice index showed a modest price increase. This price
stabilization came about because home buyers responded tothe tax credit. There was a surge in home buying late last year
as the original tax credit deadline loomed. Pending home salesin February also stirred higher, hinting the beginning o a secondsurge as the April deadline approaches. This orward momentum
will likely perhaps denitively s ignal the bottoming outo home prices in ew months time. Only then will consumers
ully regain their condence about home purchases. O course,this home buying condence is not directly observable, though
we know it plays a big actor. A separate consumer condenceindex, based on several qualitative questions tallied by TheConerence Board, has not shown any notable improvement o
late, however. This index stood 70.2 in March, about the samelevel as the prior nine months, though much improved rom
late 2008 and early 2009 in the midst o the nancial marketcrisis. (For more inormation about The Conerence Boards
Consumer Condence Index, see the In Focus column in thisissue oReal Estate INSIGHTS.)
In March, we saw the frst
meaningul job additions to theeconomy in more than threeyears as a net 162,000 new
workers (payrolls) were addedto the economy.
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY
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Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS5
Two Fronts: Jobs and Confdence
(continued)
Economy
The broader production economy has been doing quite well.
GDP expanded robustly by 5.6 percent in the nal quarter o 2009ollowing the 2.2 percent growth in the prior quarter. Thats the
good news. The somewhat bad news: the increased productioncame about with ar ewer workers i.e., ewer workers doingmore work. But with GDP growth expected to continue in 2010,
albeit not very robustly, the job creation momentum appears intact.Business spending growth has been solid. International trade has
picked up volume. The stimulus impact o government spendingis also adding to production. But more importantly, the all-mighty
consumers are beginning to open up their wallets as they eel morecomortable about their nances.
The baseline outlook is or steady economic growth o near
3 percent this year and in 2011. Note that GDP growth typicallytends to be better than 5 percent in the immediate years
ollowing a recession, so the growth outlook can be consideredsubdued. Balance sheet readjustments by both banks and
consumers to put aside more or uture rainy days will be onekey reason holding back growth potential. Nonetheless, the near3 percent GDP expansion will accompany job growth o about 2
million each year rom 2011. Such job growth will boost existinghome sales to 5.5 million in 2010 and to 5.7 million in 2011. For
comparison, sales were 5.16 million last year and reached 7.1million at the peak o the housing boom in 2005.
Risks
There are always risks to orecasts. Energy is one: big oil priceswings always put a monkey wrench in any economic orecast. For
each $10 per barrel rise in oil prices, $80 billion is removed romthe economy, though oil-producing countries like Norway benet
immensely. For perspective, oil prices have risen rom an average$60 a barrel in 2009 to $85 a barrel in early April 2010.
Another bigger risk although with a smaller probability relatesto the budget decit and some possibility o ederal spending spiraling
out o control. Currently, both oreign and domestic investorsjustiy the high decit as necessary to boost the economy and tobe manageable over time. Keynesian economics backs up that view:
go into decit spending when private demand alters to pull theeconomy back on track. The recent enactment o truly historic health
care legislation will not bust the budget in act, it becomes a costsaver over time at least according to the Congressional Budget Ofce.
But what i the CBOs projections are way o the mark (which hashappened on a ew occasions). Then there could be some majorheadaches ahead. An uncontrollable budget decit will orce interest
rates up, perhaps signicantly i, or instance, China rushes to the exit.That would push the U.S. economy into another recession. Another
recession would mean an even higher budget decit as there will beewer people working, thus smaller tax revenues.
Amateur History
Sometimes it is worth a look back into history or someguidance and un. Decits do not matter, said ormer
Vice President Dick Cheney. Mr. Cheney was addressing the
Steady economic growth onear 3 percent this year andnext year will accompany
job growth o about 2 millioneach year rom 2011 such
job growth will boost existinghome sales to 5.5 million in2010 and to 5.7 million in 2011.
experience o the then very high Reagan era decits that
brought robust economic growth and huge job gains. But thatwas a time when oreigners had just started to nance a U.S.budget decit in a meaningul way. Todays decit is much larger
than during the Reagan years and more dependent than ever onoreigners, particularly China, buying U.S. debt.
Lets look back even urther. England truly became an unmatchedsuperpower beginning at the time o Queen Elizabeth I. She was
guided by an economist named Gresham, who had no knowledge oKeynesian economics (Keynes would have to wait several centuries)but an abundance o every-day common sense. Gresham had this
simple advice: we need to bring the borrowing costs down andstrengthen Her Majestys currency. To achieve that meant balancing
the books. Building a rainy day und was even better. The VirginQueen took his words o caution to heart. England invested in a navy
(or that rainy day) and Elizabeth did not build a single new palace
during her long years o reign. Queen Marie Antoinette, across thechannel and in a dierent era, was known or her rivolous spendinghabits. In act, she had a nickname during her reign: Madame Decit.France was acing ruinous budget problems, and while most o those
were unrelated to Maries penchant or spending, the image o outo control spending added to the revolutionary ervor as the basic
needs o the French people were not being met.I know times have changed rom those during Elizabethan
England and Revolutionary France. And the U.S. is neither othose nation states. President Obama will no doubt go down inhistory as one o the most transormative leaders or better or
worse primarily because o health-care reorm. The debate onthat health care law continues, sometimes vehemently rom both
sides. No American President will want to be labeled with MarieAntoinettes moniker. Only time will tell i President Obamas
health care legislation will go down in history as a monumentalsuccess o lowering cost and enlarging coverage or a monumentalailure o long queues and resentments and continuously climbing
budget decits. Perhaps one day U.S. policies and programs willallow our nation to build comortable rainy day reserves while
at the same time spend tax revenue on Americans to meet theirbasic needs. Easier said than done, o course. Which is why i it
were to ever happen, that President whoever he or she may be will go down in history as one o the greatest ever.
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0
2
4
6
8
1-Year Adjustable Mortgage Rate
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
History Forecast
200620052004
4 3 42 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2007
2 3 4
per
cent
1 2
2008
3 1
2009
2 3 4 1 2
2010
1 2
2011
New Home Sales
Existing Home SalesHistory Forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
200620052004
3 42 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2007
Million
sofUnits
2 3 4 1 2
2008
3 4 1
2009
2 3 4 1 2
2010
1 2
2011
Sources: NAR, Bureau o the Census, NAR Forecast
Home SalesResales settling in the mid-5 million range ater tax credit expires
Sources: Freddie Mac, NAR Forecast
Mortgage RatesIncreases ahead as economy continues to improve
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Multi-Family Housing Starts
Single Family Housing StartsHistory Forecast
200620052004
4 3 42 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2007
Thousands
2 3 4 1 2
2008
3 1
2009
2 3 4 1 2
2010
1 2
2011
Sources: Bureau o the Census, NAR Forecast
Housing StartsBuilding activity improves in late 2010 and 2011
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8History Forecast
200620052004
3 42 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2007
%
GDPGrowth(SAAR)
2 3 4
2008
1 2 3 4
2009
1 2 3 4 1 2
2010
1 2
2011
Sources: Bureau o Economic Analysis, NAR Forecast
Economic GrowthSteady, moderate growth
Source: Bureau o Labor Statistics, NAR orecast
UnemploymentRemaining at high levels due to new workers who cant fnd jobs
Source: Bureau o Labor Statistics, NAR orecast
Payroll JobsSome positive news, but still ar to go
0
2
4
6
8
10
12History Forecast
200620052004
3 42 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2007
percent
2 3 4
2008
1 2 3 4
2009
1 2 3 4 1 2
2010
1 2
2011
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000History Forecast
200620052004
3 42 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
2007
thousands
2 3 4
2008
1 2 3 4
2009
1 2 3 4 1 2
2010 2011
1 2
quarterly changein payrolls (job gains)
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U.S. Economic OutlookApril 2010
U.S. Economy
Annual Growth Rate
Real GDP -6.4 -0.7 2.2 5.6 2.4 1.6 2.4 2.2 2.8 3.5 0.4 -2.4 2.6 2.7
Nonarm Payroll Employment -6.4 -5.0 -3.1 -1.3 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.6 -0.6 -4.3 -0.8 1.1
Consumer Prices -2.2 1.9 3.7 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.5 3.8 -0.3 2.3 1.1
Real Disposable Income 0.2 6.2 -3.6 1.0 -3.7 3.2 1.2 3.0 6.3 4.2 0.5 0.9 0.1 3.7
Consumer Condence 30 48 52 51 52 55 56 59 62 66 58 45 56 66
Percent Unemployment 8.2 9.3 9.7 10.0 9.7 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.6 5.8 9.3 9.8 9.7
Interest Rates, Percent
Fed Funds Rate 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 1.9
3-Month T-Bill Rate 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.4 1.8
Prime Rate 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.1 3.3 3.4 4.9
Corporate Aaa Bond Yield 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.4 5.710-Year Government Bond 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 3.7 3.3 3.9 4.4
30-Year Government Bond 3.5 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.9
Mortgage Rates, percent
30-Year Fied Rate 5.1 5.0 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.1 5.1 5.4 6.2
1-Year Adjustable 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.2 4.7 4.4 5.0
Housing Indicators
Thousands
Eisting Home Sales* 4,610 4,780 5,280 5,970 5,145 5,810 5,320 5,618 5,507 5,569 4,913 5,156 5493 5,699
New Single-Family Sales 338 372 406 370 333 342 370 456 552 609 485 374 377 591
Housing Starts 528 540 587 559 579 590 594 713 871 970 904 553 619 1,013
Single-Family Units 358 425 498 481 489 488 493 570 690 761 622 441 510 802
Multiamily Units 169 115 88 77 90 101 101 143 181 209 282 113 109 211
Residential Construction** 368 344 360 363 357 359 361 373 403 437 451 359 363 451
Percent Change Year Ago
Eisting Home Sales -6.8 -2.8 5.7 26.7 11.6 21.6 0.8 -5.9 7.1 -4.2 -13.1 4.9 6.5 3.7
New Single-Family Sales -40.1 -27.1 -11.7 -5.4 -1.6 -8.1 -8.9 23.2 66.0 78.1 -37.5 -22.8 0.6 56.9
Housing Starts -50.2 -46.9 -32.4 -15.1 9.6 9.2 1.3 27.5 50.6 64.6 -33.3 -38.8 11.8 63.7
Single-Family Units -51.2 -36.6 -16.6 4.3 36.5 14.9 -1.0 18.4 41.1 55.8 -40.5 -29.1 15.7 57.2
Multiamily Units -47.8 -66.8 -67.3 -60.7 -47.1 -12.1 14.4 84.6 102.0 106.9 -8.7 -60.1 -3.5 94.1
Residential Construction -23.9 -25.6 -18.9 -12.5 -3.0 4.1 0.4 2.8 12.9 21.9 -0.6 -20.5 1.1 24.4
Median Home Prices
Thousands o Dollars
Eisting Home Prices 167.6 174.4 178.1 170.8 165.9 177.2 184.5 177.8 172.9 184.8 198.1 172.5 177.2 184.8
New Home Prices 207.8 218.7 212.6 217.7 214.9 223.5 220.3 226.8 224.5 234.2 232.1 215.9 221.7 233.1
Percent Change Year Ago
Eisting Home Prices -15.6 -16.2 -11.6 -5.5 -1.0 1.6 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.3 -9.5 -12.9 2.7 4.3
New Home Prices -11.8 -7.6 -6.7 -1.7 3.4 2.2 3.6 4.2 4.5 4.8 -6.4 -7.0 2.7 5.1
Housing Aordability Inde 181 174 161 171 178 158 143 143 146 130 139 172 154 129
Quarterly gures are seasonally adjusted annual rates.
* Eisting home sales o single-amily homes and condo/co-ops; ** billion dollars
2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011I II III IV I II III IV I II
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Looking at Key Economic Data:Numbers, Forecasts, and the Housing Outlookby Jed Smith,Managing Director, Quantitative Research
As we emerge rom the Great Reces-sion we are bombarded with economic
commentary on a daily basis. In the recentpast the economy has eperienced a signi-cant number o problems:
n Jobs. The economy has shed over 8
million jobs between late 2007 (thebeginning o the recession) and the
present. At the same time, the economyneeds to create 1.4 million jobs per yearto accommodate new workers entering
the workorce.n Decreases in wealth. The Great Reces-
sion took a toll on household andnonprot wealth. According to the
Federal Reserve, overall household/non-prot wealth declined by $11.7 trillionin late 2009 rom its peak in 2007, in an
economy with a total output (that is,Gross Domestic Product or GDP) o
$14.5 trillion.n Home sales. Eisting-home sales
declined rom approimately 7 millionunits to 5 million sales per year. Duringthe same time, new home construc-
tion dropped rom a rate o 2.3 million
single amily homes per year to 575,000homes. Given that an eisting home salepulls through an additional $57,000 o
additional GDP spending, the declines inhome sales and construction have had amajor economic impact.
n The shadow banking system. Leh-man, General Electric Credit Corpora-
tion, AIG, Bear Stearns, among otherscrashed in October 2007, causing major
credit availability problems.n GDP growth turned negative during the
Great Recession, and has been some-
what weaker than would normally oc-cur during emergence rom a recession.
Liestyle, amily, and ownership enjoy-
ment are clearly important considerationsin the purchase o a new home. The clientwill be ocused on the local housing market
in terms o price, availability, and trends.But changes in the economy and perhaps
more importantly, consumers views othe economy can impact the outlook or
both residential and commercial sales as
well as new constructions. Consequently,many clients may ask: Where is the Econo-
my Headed?How do we understand where the
economy is going when there are so manyeconomic numbers and concepts men-
tioned on a continuing basis? And or realestate proessionals, the question is likely to
be: What do the economic numbers meanor our business and our clients?
Where is the Economy Headed?
A Look at Economic DataThere is no dearth o economic data;
indeed, theres tons o it out there. Monthlyand quarterly data on consumption, invest-
ment, eports, imports, Gross DomesticProduct (GDP), employment, interest rates,housing construction, housing sales, con-
sumer and producer prices, manuactur-ing, demographic data, and a wide variety
o other economic statistics are readilyavailable. What data are relevant to REAL-
TORS and their clients?There are ve major data releases
o particular interest that can give a good
overview o the economy, as well as signsabout the uture direction o housing.
1. Employment: I people dont have
jobs, they are unlikely to buy homes.Theyre also likely to cut back on other,non-essential ependitures. Data on
employment trends changes in em-ployment, the outlook or employment,
and stability o employment -- appearto be strong indicators or the housing
outlook. As o the rst quarter o 2010,there were 14.9 million people unem-
ployed. But the good news the latestjobs gures indicate that the economy
generated 162,000 new jobs in March,and the unemployment rateremained steady at 9.7 percent.
2. Interest Rates:A quarter o apercent change in the interest rate can
mean tens o thousands o dollars incosts over a thirty-year mortgage. An
increase rom 5-6 percent on a thirtyyear $200,000 loan can change themonthly payment o principal and inter-
est by $125, an increase o 11.6 percentInterest rates along with home prices
can have a major impact on housingaordability. In the rst quarter o 2010
rates were near 5 percent and are e-pected to remain reasonable, althoughwith some increases as the economy
continues to improve.3. Consumer Mood:Every month The
Conerence Board reports its survey oconsumer condence an overall sum-
mation o how people eel about thecurrent state o the economy. Changesin consumer condence tend to refect
uture changes in the economy. In 2007
IN FOCUS
Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100)
Existing-home Sales (SAAR)
Existing-homesales
thousands
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan2010
Jan2009
Jan2008
Jan2007
Jan2006
Jan2005
Jan2004
Jan2003
Jan2002
ConsumerConfidenceIndex
Sources: The Conerence Board, NAR Research, Haver Analytics
Consumer Confdence and Home Sales
http://www.bls.gov/8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
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Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS9
consumer mood averaged at 103, drop-ping to 25 in February o 2009. A read-
ing in the 90 to 100 range would signiy
an economy headed to ull employment.Currently, the data have shown someupward movement but tend to suggest
a slow but positive recovery.4. Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
GDP is a measure o the overall
economic output, and stood at $14.5trillion in the nal quarter o 2009.
Economic growth is orecast to increasein the neighborhood o 3 percent per
yearsomewhat slower than onewould epect when eiting a recession,but consistent with long-term trends.
5. Existing-home Sales:NAR dataon eisting-home sales are released
monthly, and quarterly reports areissued on resales by state. (Recent
and historical data are availableatwww.realtor.org/research/ehspage.)
Interpreting the Data : What Does ItMean or REALTORS?
Changes in the economy aect thehousing markets and also the ways in which
real estate proessionals can market their
property listings and manage their business.For eample, there is a matchnot perectbut certainly illustrative, between Consum-er Condence and Eisting Home Sales.
Currently, we epect Consumer Con-dence to keep on improving as both the
economy continues to grow and (hopeul-ly) the job market remains on an upswing.
Such improving consumer sentiment bodeswell or home sales going orward.
However, the myriad o inormation is
overwhelming. NAR provides an overalleconomic orecast plus a summary o
important data items: A one page summaryand orecast o economic indicators
can be ound atwww.real-
tor.org/research.The ve major types o data
(and changes in the data) are useul in sum-marizing the economy and the direction o
the real estate markets. O course, there isa lot more data out there: average weekly
earnings, home inventory (the number o
Looking at Key Economic Data
Numbers, Forecasts, and the Housing Outlook(continued)
homes available or sale), just to mentiontwo. And remember all real estate is local.
National trends may not be those refected
in local markets. This makes the role o alocal real estate proessional even morevital to property buyers and sellers.
The home purchase decision is aboutliestyle, amily, hopes, and the uture. How-ever, the economic side is clearly important.
An overview o the numbers can providethe basis or addressing clients questions
about the real estate outlook that is,where the economy has been, where it is
headed, and current prices and sales.
http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehspagehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehspagehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehspagehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehspagehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehspagehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehspagehttp://www.realtor.org/researchhttp://www.realtor.org/researchhttp://www.realtor.org/researchhttp://www.realtor.org/researchhttp://www.realtor.org/researchhttp://www.realtor.org/researchhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehspage8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
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Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS10
USING NAR RESEARCH
Research Update Staying in Touch with the Latestrom NAR Researchby Meredith Dunn, Research Communications Representative
NAR Research keeps you up to dateon the latest statistics and analysis rom
NARs Research Division. Beginning inJune, we will premiere a new eature inReal Estate Insights. Research Updatewill be a regular column in this newslet-ter, which will provide inormation about
developments in the real estate industry,current NAR Research studies, as well
as links to other insightul inormation.What will you nd in Research Update?
Heres a look.
Latest Developments
Research Webinar or April:
Homebuyers and Sellers: A
Demographic Look
You know the overall home buyerand seller statistics, but this webinar will
dive deeper into the statistics to describedemographic dierences. How do single
emale buyers dier rom single malesor married couples? How do dierent
age groups and household compositionchange the way buyers nance and lookor homes? All these questions and more
will be answered during this webinar,
which is scheduled or April 28at 2pm EDT. Register now.
Multiamily Fundamentals
The economy concluded 2009 witha positive level o activity. Gross domes-
tic product advanced at a 5.6 percentrate. Other economic indicators alsopointed towards a continued recovery.
At the same time, commercial real estateconcluded the year with mixed results.
Fundamentals remained weak, invest-ments were down and the volume o dis-
tressed properties increased. Contractingcredit and a tightened lending environ-ment added to the pressure. In the broad
landscape o commercial properties, themultiamily sector has ared comparative-
ly better. Demand or space was mod-est but positive. Net absorption closed
the year at 105,458 units. Yet, there areactors which caused adverse impacts in
the sector. View the Commercial
Real Estate Outlook
News You Can Use
New: Relocation Reports
These reports pinpoint which coun-ties relocation clients are coming romand going to, along with relative income
inormation. Relocation Reports areavailable or all counties in the U.S. and
can now be downloaded online, or FREE.
Economists Podcast: Latest Housing Data
and the Economy
On the second Tuesday o every
month, NARs Chie Economist, Law-rence Yun, will discuss the current actors,
issues, and data aecting REALTORS andtheir businesses. Get a wealth o inor-
mation straight rom the source with aquick listen each podcast is around 5minutes long and provides a timely mar-
ket update. In this podcast, ChieEconomist Lawrence Yun discusses the
mixed messages on the economy thatthe latest housing data provides.Listento the latest Podcast
Research is Now on Face-book, Active Rain, RealTown,
and Twitter!
The National Association o REAL-TORS has been surveying members to
nd out about their use o technologylike websites and blogs or several years.
Now, Research, too, has its very own Fa-cebook group, Active Rain and RealTown
presences, as well as a presence on Twit-ter. Researchs social media pages are notonly a place or our members to receive
insight into our latest surveys, commen-taries and reports, but also an avenue or
you to make your thoughts known to us
and your ellow REALTORS
. There maybe certain special trends in the market-place that Research may be unaware o
such as a signicant rise in oot trac
at open houses or continuing long delaysin getting short sales to close. This is an
open orum or discussion rather than aone-sided monologue.
Another Valuable Tool rom NARResearch
Research Update is a great destination
to get the headlines rom NAR Re-search. And you can use the inormationrom Update in your own newsletters,
marketing materials, and presentations.But you dont have to wait until June. For
more inormation about Research Updatevisitwww.realtor.org/research/re-searchupdatearchives.
Research Store
Research Product Store
Commercial Real Estate
Commercial Outlook
Reports by Topic
Find the Research You Want
Real Estate Insights
Commentaries, Forecasts and Articles
NAR News Releases
News Releases
Contact Research StaDirectory
Useul Ino
https://realtors.webex.com/realtors/onstage/g.php?d=928656597&t=ahttp://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0c/creo0210.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0chttp://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0c/creo0210.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0chttp://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0c/creo0210.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0chttp://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0c/creo0210.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0chttp://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0c/creo0210.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0chttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/economists_podcasts/economists_podcast031010http://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/economists_podcasts/economists_podcast031010http://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/economists_podcasts/economists_podcast031010http://www.realtor.org/research/researchupdatearchiveshttp://www.realtor.org/research/researchupdatearchiveshttp://www.realtor.org/research/researchupdatearchiveshttp://www.realtor.org/research/researchupdatearchiveshttp://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0c/creo0210.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=08eb7c004187dea0aad3ba08069f8e0chttp://www.realtor.org/research/researchupdatearchiveshttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/economists_podcasts/economists_podcast031010https://realtors.webex.com/realtors/onstage/g.php?d=928656597&t=ahttp://www.realtor.org/research/researchupdatearchives8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
11/14
Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS11
Single-Women Home Buyers: A Growing SegmentBy Jessica Lautz, Research Economist
In the summer o 2009, NAR Re-search surveyed recent home buyers
about their eperience with the home
search process, and the use o realestate proessionals in purchas-ing a home. The results o
the survey were published inNARs 2009 Profle o Home
Buyers and Sellers.
Results o that survey show thata signicant share o home buyers are
single women. Indeed, the percentageo single-women buyers has increased
rom 14 percent in 1995 to 21 percentin 2009. These home purchasers accountor the second largest share o adult
households who purchase homes. Singleemales make up one-quarter o the rst-
time buyer population and 17 percento the repeat buyer population. We look
at some results below rom the mostrecent Profle to get a better descriptiono who single women buyers are.
Single Female Home BuyersThe median age o all home buyers
was 39 years old, compared to 41 orsingle emale buyers. Among single-emale
buyers, 58 percent were rst-time home
buyers in 2009, compared to 47 percento all home buyers. The median house-hold income or single-women homebuyers was lower than that o all other
homebuyer household types. Singleemales reported a median household
income o $47,900 in 2008 comparedto $73,100 among all home buying
households. This dierence in house-hold income should not be completelysurprising as 68 percent o home buying
households are couples and so perhapslikely to have two income earners. The
dierence in median income or singlewomen households compared to those
or single men is less strikingsinglemen typically made $53,700 in 2008. Ad-ditionally, single women households are
less likely to have children living at homethan couples. Results rom the survey
show that 22 percent o single womenhome buyers have children at home,
while 38 percent o all home buyers havechildren at home.
What They BuyWhile the majority o single emale
buyers purchase a single-amily home,single emale households are more likelythan other household types to purchase
an apartment/condominium or a town-house/rowhouse. One in our single
emale buyers purchase a house in anurban area/central city, which is a higher
percentage compared to all other house-hold compositions ecept single males.Still, the majority o single emale home
buyers purchase a home in the suburbs,similar to all buyers.
Single emale buyers are more likely topurchase an eisting home than are other
buyers. This makes the role o a real estateproessional even more important to single
emale buyers. Only 14 percent o singleemale buyers purchased a new homecompared to 18 percent o all buyers.
Single emale buyers also tend to purchasesmaller homes, typically buying homes that
are 1,480 square eet in size comparedto the median size o 1,800 square eet
purchased among all buyers. Once singleemales ound the home they purchased,they epect to live there or 10 years.
Why They BuyMore than one-third o all home buy-
ers buy a home or the desire to own.This has been the most cited reason
consistently or the last several years,
but it is even more true o single emalebuyers. Nearly hal o single emale buy-
ers purchase a home because they have adesire to own a home. The second mostcited reason or single emale buyers in
choosing to purchase a home is a changein amily situation13 percent o single
emale buyers purchase or this reason,compared to 9 percent o all buyers.
In comparison to other householdtypes, single emale buyers are morelikely to have lived with parents, rela-
tives or riends beore buying their ownresidence, 20 percent compared to
12 percent o all buyers. Single emalebuyers are also more likely to rent an
apartment or house beore buying theirown place compared to all buyers. Both
previous living situations are related tothe large share o single emale buyersbeing rst-time buyers.
Real Estate Proessionals and theHome Search
When single emale buyers rst startto look or a home they contacted a
real estate agent, contacted a mortgagebroker or talked with a riend or relativemore requently than did other buy-
ers. While 87 percent o single emalesuse the Internet in their home search, a
slightly larger percentage 89 percent --use a real estate agent. Real estate agents
are a trusted resource that single emale
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
0
5
10
15
20
25
200920082007200620052004**20032001
percent
212020
22
21
18
21
15
*buyers who purchased homes between July 2008 and June 2009**beginning in 2003, NARs survey o home buyers and sellers was conducted annuallySource: The 2009 NAR Profle o Home Buyers and Sellers
Single Women Home Buyers(as a percent o all home buyers)*
http://www.realtor.org/prodser.nsf/products/186-45-09?OpenDocumenthttp://www.realtor.org/prodser.nsf/products/186-45-09?OpenDocument8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
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Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS12
Single-Women Home Buyers: A Growing Segment(continued)
buyers turn to during their home search.A larger share o single emale home buy-
ers rst nd the home they purchased
rom their agent compared to all buyers 40 percent vs. 36 percent, respectively.Underscoring the importance o the real
estate agent to single women buyersis the act that a higher share o singleemales purchased their home through a
real estate agent than through any othersource: 79 percent compared to 77 per-
cent o all buyers.Single women buyers, like all other
buyers, most want their agent to helpthem nd the right home to purchase,but they place more importance than
other buyers on their agent helping themnegotiate the terms o sale. Similar to all
buyers, single women place a high impor-tance on honesty and integrity in their
agent and knowledge o the purchaseprocess.
Home Financing
Single emale buyers are similar to allbuyers when it comes to nancing their
home purchase. However, there are somedierences. Similar to all buyers, about
nine in ten nance their home purchase
through a mortgage, and the majority usesavings as the source o their down pay-ment. A higher share o single emale buy-ers receive a git rom a riend or relative
as a down payment source comparedto other buyers, and a smaller share use
proceeds rom the sale o their primaryresidence.
Despite record high housing aord-ability conditions, buyers are still makingsacrices to purchase homes and this
is also the case or emale home buy-ers. Single emales are more likely than
other buyers to have cut spending onluury items, entertainment, and clothes
in order to be able to purchase a home.Nearly nine in ten single emales believetheir home was a good nancial invest-
ment.
What it Means or Real Estate Pro-essionals
Single women are likely to continue tobe a signicant segment o home buyers.
By utilizing the inormation above as ahelpul tool, as well as other inorma-
tion ound in the 2009 NAR Profle o
Home Buyers and Sellers, real estateproessionals may be able to under-
stand and serve their clients better. Thisdiligence will be rewarded: single emales
are more likely than other buyers toturn to real estate agents rst and stay
with the real estate agent throughout thepurchasing process.
Source: The 2009 NAR Profle o Home Buyers and Sellersdetail may not add to 100 due to rounding
All Single-Female
Buyers Buyers
Desire to own a home 35 % 47 %
Job-related relocation or move 9 3
Desire or larger home 9 3
Change in amily situation 9 13
Aordability o homes 8 8
Desire or a home in a better area 4 2
Desire to be closer to amily/riends/relatives 4 4
Desire to be closer to job/school/transit 3 2
Primary Reason or Purchasing a Home(Percentage Distribution)
8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
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Real Estate Insights / April 2010 / 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS13
Residential Housing Market Data: Monthly Seriesn
Pending Home Salesn Eisting Home Sales
n Median Sales Prices
n Housing Aordability Inde
Residential Housing Market Data: Quarterly Seriesn Eisting Home Sales by State
n Metropolitan Area Median Sales Prices
n Housing Aordability Inde (quarterly and rst-time homebuyer)
Commercial Market Data and Reportsn Commercial Real Estate Forecast (quarterly)
n Commercial Real Estate Outlook (quarterly)
n Commercial Real Estate Leading Indicator (quarterly)
n 2009 NAR Commercial Member Prole
n Commercial Real Estate Market Survey
Web Exclusivesn Daily commentary
n Multimedia
n Webinars and Podcasts
n Facebook
LINKS TO STATISTICAL DATA AND NAR RESEARCH RESOURCES
http://www.realtor.org/research/research/phsdatahttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/phsdatahttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdatahttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdatahttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdatahttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdatahttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginxhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginxhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/metropricehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/metropricehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/metropricehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/metropricehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginxhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginxhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlookhttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlookhttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/multimediahttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/multimediahttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/multimediahttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/multimediahttp://www.facebook.com/pages/NAR-Research/73888294183http://www.facebook.com/pages/NAR-Research/73888294183http://www.facebook.com/pages/NAR-Research/73888294183http://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/multimediahttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/multimediahttp://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlookhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/reportscommercialhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginxhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/metropricehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/metropricehttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginxhttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdatahttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdatahttp://www.realtor.org/research/research/phsdata8/9/2019 Real Estate Insights
14/14
NARs 2010 Midyear Meetings
While attending NARs Midyear Meeting in May, be sure to takeadvantage o these inormative sessions rom NAR Research
Economic Issues & Residential Real Estate
Business Trends Forum
05/13/2010 | 08:00 AM - 10:00 AMThe U.S. Housing Market: Is Recovery In Sight? NAR ChieEconomist Lawrence Yun will be joined by Mark Zandi, ChieEconomist and Founder o Moodys Economy.com. Thesenationally recognized experts will oer insights, perspectives andorecasts regarding residential real estate and the economy, theuture o the U.S. mortgage fnance delivery system, and the roleo the ederal government in the operation o mortgage fnance.Following Drs. Yun and Zandi, learn how you can share theirinsights with your coworkers and clients. Leading marketing
and training experts Amy Chorew o The Tech Byte and GingerWilcox rom the Social Media Marketing Institute, will discussthe best practices to utilize NAR research and statistics in yoursocial media marketing campaign.
RESOURCES FROM NAR RESEARCH
Economic Issues & Commercial
Business Trends Forum
05/13/2010 | 1:00 PM - 3:00 PMLawrence Yun, NAR Chie Economist will be joined by AjayRajadhyaksha o Barclays Capital and Brendan Reilly rom theCommercial Mortgage Securities Association in a discussion othe economic recovery, developments in the capital markets andthe implications o fnancial changes or commercial real estatein 2010 and beyond.
For locations o these inormative sessions, check your Midyear
Conerence program. For more inormation about the meetings,visitwww.realtor.org/midyear.nsf/pages/expo .
http://www.realtor.org/midyear.nsf/pages/expohttp://www.realtor.org/midyear.nsf/pages/expohttp://www.realtor.org/midyear.nsf/pages/expohttp://www.realtor.org/midyear.nsf/pages/expo