Re-Election Rates in the House of Representatives1946-1998

Elec tion Year

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 0

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 2

1 9 7 8

1 9 7 4

1 9 7 0

1 9 6 6

1 9 6 2

1 9 5 8

1 9 5 4

1 9 5 0

1 9 4 6

1 0 0

9 0

8 0

7 0

6 0

5 0

Pc t o f Se e k e rs

Re e l e c te d

Pc t o f E l i g i b l e

Re e l e c te d

Mean = 91.9%

Mean = 84.6%

*

Cracking the Minority

Packingthe Minority

Cracking the Majority

Gerrymandering: Drawing Electoral Boundaries for Political Advantage *

Porkbarrel Representation *

Casework Representation *

Year

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 0

1 9 8 8

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 4

1 9 8 2

1 9 8 0

1 9 7 8

1 9 7 6

1 9 7 4

1 9 7 2

1 9 7 0

Va

lue

1 0 0 0 0

8 0 0 0

6 0 0 0

4 0 0 0

2 0 0 0

0

Ho u s e Pe rs o n a l Sta f f

(T o ta l )

Ho u s e Pe rs o n a l Sta f f

i n D.C.

Ho u s e Pe rs o n a l Sta f f

i n Di s tri c t

THE IMPORTANCE OF CONSTITUENCY SERVICE:THE GROWTH IN DISTRICT STAFF *

An Example of the Franking Privilege *

YEAR

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

Me

an

Pe

rce

ntag

e C

han

ge100

50

0

-50

-100

Change in Congressional Mailings: Election Year vs. Off Year

*

Off-Year Mean Change: -32%

Election-Year Mean Change: +44%

Campaign Spending: Incumbents and Challengers *

Effects of Campaign Spending: Name Recognition *

C o n g re s s

1 0 4

1 0 2

1 0 0

9 8

9 6

9 4

9 2

9 0

8 8

8 6

8 4

8 2

8 0

1 0 0

8 0

6 0

4 0

2 0

0

B ills In tro d u c e d

p e r W o rk d a y

B ills P a s s e d

p e r W o rk d a y

P o st-1 9 7 7M e a n : 3 5

P o st-1 9 7 7M e a n : 2

(1977)

LEGISLATIVE ACTIVITY IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES80TH –105TH CONGRESS

*

Year

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

House Com m it t ee

St af f

Senat e Com m it t ee

St af f

House Per sonal

St af f

Senat e Per sonal

St af f

Source: VSAP, 2000, Figure 5-2

CONGRESSIONAL STAFFING1930-1997

*

The Simplified/Idealized Legislative Process *

Conservative Nature of Congress: Percent of Bills That Pass,1947-1998

Congress

1 0 41 0 21 0 09 89 69 49 29 08 88 68 48 28 0

Perc

ent o

f Int

rodu

ctio

ns th

at P

ass

1 6

1 4

1 2

1 0

8

6

4

2

Mean Percent ofBills that Pass: 6.7%

*

(1947-48) (1997-98)

Fire Alarm Oversight *

The Electoral Value of the Franking Privilege

Parties Promise Season of 'Aggressive' CampaignsBy Dana MilbankWashington Post Staff WriterFriday, May 3, 2002; Page A10

Both political parties vowed hostile campaigns for the fall elections, as the Democratic chairmanyesterday urged his party to attack President Bush's record and one of Bush's pollsters told Republicanlawmakers to "fight back" aggressively and not rely on the president's popularity…

McInturff warned Republicans that the political environment is "rapidly returning to a status which mirrorspre-September 11th," when Bush's popularity soared. In competitive districts, "a message of 'reelectRepublicans to help the president' by itself won't resonate enough to assure winning a campaign," thememo given to lawmakers said.

Republicans were urged to make early use of government-paid franked mail to aid their candidacies."Rely on the incumbent's friend, Mr. Frank Mail," the memo said, encouraging franked mail that singlesout older voters. "Remember, Mr. Frank Mail's older brother is Mr. Senior Mail." Though it is illegal to usefranked mail for purely political purposes, it is common practice for lawmakers to use such mail to boostrecognition among constituents…

© 2002 The Washington Post Company

*

The “Typical” Member of the 109th CongressGender:

– Male– Women = about 15% of seats (most ever)

Race:– White– Blacks = 8% of seats, 12% of population (1 senator)– Hispanics = 5% of seats, 14% of population (2 senators)

Education: – 93% have bachelor’s degrees– 25% of population has bachelor’s degrees

Age: – House = 55 years, Senate = 60 years– Oldest Congress ever

Occupation:– Lawyer = 40%, Business = 35%, Politician = 35%

Return

“Quality Challengers”: The Chicken and the Egg

• To be a quality challenger, you need:

A good chance at winning, so that people

take your candidacy seriously.

In order to have a good chance at winning you need. . .

Funding, so that you can get your name recognized.In order to get funding, you need. . .

Return

Congres s

106

105

104

103

102

101

100

99

98

97

96

95

94

93

92

.20

.18

.16

.14

.12

.10

.08

.06

.04

.02

0. 00

Women as Percentage

of House

Af rican Americans as

Percent age of House

Hispanics as

Percentage of House

Source: VSAP 2000, Table 5-2

WOMEN, AFRICAN AMERICANS AND HISPANICS IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

92nd - 106th CONGRESS

Return

Henry Clay and the “Unbounded” Congress:• 1806-07: Served in Senate (not yet 30) to fill the vacancy caused

by resignation• 1808-09: State house of representatives, speaker in 1809• 1810-11: Served in Senate to fill the vacancy caused by

resignation• 1811-14: House of Representatives, Speaker of the House • 1814: appointed one of the commissioners to negotiate the treaty

of peace with Great Britain• 1815-21: Speaker of the House• 1821-1823: “Retired”• 1823-1825: Speaker of the House• 1824: Ran for President• 1825-29: Secretary of State• 1831-42: Senate, chairman, Committee on Foreign Relations,

Committee on Finance• 1832: Ran for President• 1844: Ran for President• 1849-52: Senate• 1852: Dead Return

Violence in Pre-Civil War Congress

Return

Committees as “Preference Outliers”—Skewing Policy Outcomes

Policy Dimension

(where MC’s stand on spending

for agriculture)

Liberal

(more spending)

Conservative

(less spending)

Agriculture Committee members

Bill representing the median (average) of the Chamber’s policy preferences

Bill produced by the Ag Committee

Committee bill wins: Chamber accepts committee’s expertise and “jurisdiction”. But why?

Return

Committees as Party Agents—Skewing Policy Outcomes

Policy Dimension

(where MC’s stand on spending

for agriculture)

Liberal

(more spending)

Conservative

(less spending)

Majority Party members

Bill representing the median (average) of the Chamber’s policy preferences

Bill produced by the majority-controlled Ag Committee

Majority party-favored bill wins: Party-agents on committee protect the majority party’s interests

Return

The Chamber Rules—Centrist Policy Outcomes

Policy Dimension

(where MC’s stand on spending

for agriculture)

Liberal

(more spending)

Conservative

(less spending)

Bill representing the median (average) of the Chamber’s policy preferences

Return

Congressional Party Leadership Positions

HOUSE:

Speaker—presiding officer, determines schedule, refers bills

Majority Leader—Speaker’s “assistant”, party spokesperson

Party Whips—maintain party loyalty of votes, pass information between leaders and members.

Minority Leader—loyal opposition, party spokesperson

SENATE:

Majority Leader—Party’s floor leader, party spokesperson

Party Whips—maintain party loyalty of votes, pass information between leaders and members.

Minority Leader—loyal opposition, party spokesperson, coordinates very closely with Majority Leader

Return

Cheating in 2305—Your Options

Keep Your Mouth Shut Spill It

KYMS

Spill It

Student 1

Student 2

C C

B F

F B

D D

Cheating in 2305—Your Options

Keep Your Mouth Shut Spill It

KYMS

Spill It

Student 1

Student 2

C C

B F

F B

D D

Cheating in 2305—Your Options

Keep Your Mouth Shut Spill It

KYMS

Spill It

Student 1

Student 2

C C

B F

F B

D D

Cheating in 2305—Your Options

Keep Your Mouth Shut Spill It

KYMS

Spill It

Student 1

Student 2

C C

B F

F B

D D

Cheating in 2305—Your Options

Keep Your Mouth Shut Spill It

KYMS

Spill It

Student 1

Student 2

C C

B F

F B

D D

Prisoner’s Dilemma

• By acting rationally individually, the group collectively ends up with sub-optimal outcomes.

Return

Serving on a Committee—Your Options

Stick ToBudget Spend Like Crazy

STB

SLC

Committee 1

Committee 2

+2 -15 +10

+10 -15 -10 -10

+2

Return