RE-BALANCE TO ASIA:PROSPECTS FOR MARITIME

SECURITY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

6 March 2013Prof. K. L. Nankivell

nankivellk@apcss.org1

AGENDA

1. Strategic Overview: Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific

2. What does an increased role for the United States look like?

3. Challenges & Opportunities in S&T engagement

2

65% of World’s Navies Over $100B committed until

2015 for new submarines Up to 21 Large Deck units in

build or planned2 Large Deck12 Subs

3 + 7 Subs?

6 Subs2 Subs

4 Large Deck12 Subs

3 Large Deck15 Subs

48 Subs 2 Large Deck

NAVAL UNITS RECENT AND PLANNED

8 Subs?

2 Subs

2 Subs

2 + 6 Subs?

30 Subs3 Large Deck

4 Large Deck?

3 Large Deck

33 subs?

6 Subs

1 Sub

Proliferation of Blue-Water Middle Powers

Asian Dominance of Trade

Asian Dominance of Trade

6

52%

22%

20%6%

World Seaborne Trade,value, 2010, %

Containers

Tankers

General Cargo

Dry Bulk

Lloyd’s Maritime Intelligence Unit, 2010

Asian Dominance of Trade

High trade volume, low trade density

Asian Dominance of Trade

1 Shanghai, China 29.07 31.742 Singapore, Singapore 28.43 29.943 Hong Kong, China 23.70 24.384 Shenzhen, China 22.51 22.575 Busan, South Korea 14.18 16.176 Ningbo-Zhoushan, China 13.14 14.727 Guangzhou Harbor, China 12.55 14.268 Qingdao, China 12.01 13.029 Jebel Ali, Dubai 11.60 13.01

10 Rotterdam 11.14 11.8811 Tianjin, China 10.08 11.5912 Kaohsiung, Taiwan 9.18 9.6413 Port Kelang, Malaysia 8.87 9.6014 Hamburg, Germany 7.91 9.0415 Antwerp, Belgium 8.47 8.6616 Los Angeles, U.S.A. 7.83 7.9417 Keihin Ports, Japan* 7.48 7.6418 Tanjung Pelepas, Malaysia 6.47 7.5019 Xiamen, China 5.82 6.47

20 Dalian, China 5.24 6.40 Sour

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2010

2011

1 Shanghai, China 29.07 31.742 Singapore, Singapore 28.43 29.943 Hong Kong, China 23.70 24.384 Shenzhen, China 22.51 22.575 Busan, South Korea 14.18 16.176 Ningbo-Zhoushan, China 13.14 14.727 Guangzhou Harbor, China 12.55 14.268 Qingdao, Chin 12.01 13.029 Jebel Ali, Dubai 11.60 13.01

10 Rotterdam 11.14 11.8811 Tianjin, China 10.08 11.5912 Kaohsiung, Taiwan 9.18 9.6413 Port Kelang, Malaysia 8.87 9.6014 Hamburg, Germany 7.91 9.0415 Antwerp, Belgium 8.47 8.6616 Los Angeles, U.S.A. 7.83 7.9417 Keihin Ports, Japan* 7.48 7.6418 Tanjung Pelepas, Malaysia 6.47 7.5019 Xiamen, China 5.82 6.47

20 Dalian, China 5.24 6.40Port

s, b

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U h

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ed (

mill

ions

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2010

2011

Sour

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NWP 1-14M, U.S. Navy

Contested Concept of the Commons

Taiwan

Macclesfield Bank(PRC, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan)

Senkaku/Diaoyu Dispute(Japan, PRC, Taiwan)

Take-shima/Dokdo Issue(Japan, ROK)

Northern 4 Isls Issue(Japan, Russia)

SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES IN

EAST ASIA

Spratly Isls(Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei,Philippines, Taiwan, PRC)

Paracel Isls(PRC, Vietnam, Taiwan)

‘International Boundary’ announced by China

EEZ Line (Japan)

Map source: the University of Texas at Austin

Northern Limit Line (UN)

Thai-Cambodia Dispute

1. Who owns the land features?

2. Where are the boundaries of EEZs and int’l waters?

3. What rights and responsibilities does jurisdiction confer? (What activities are legal)?

1. Territorial2. Maritime3. Jurisdictional

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Contested Concept of the Commons:

The SCS Disputes

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What Does an Increased Role for the United States look

like?

Underwriting the Status Quo:

PresencePersistence

Partners & AlliesParameters

Building partner capacity without remaking the partner

Preparing for asymmetry of adversaries

Resourcing the Back-Office for the long run

Building partner capacity without remaking the partner

Focus on shared interests, share-able technologies, easy-access platforms (real & virtual)

Gray Hulls White Hulls

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Challenges & Opportunities:S&T Engagement

DISCUSSION

Kerry Lynn Nankivellnankivellk@apcss.org

(808) 564-5011

THE QUEST FOR RESOURCES

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18

19

Ladd Reef,Vietnam OccupiedSpratly Islands2007

20Mischief Reef, 2007PRC Occupied

21

Okino TorishimaJapanese Occupied

2010

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TERRITORIAL SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES UNCLOS has no provisions on how to resolve disputes

over which State has sovereignty over off-shore islands Territorial sovereignty disputes governed by principles

of customary international law No dispute on territorial sovereignty can be referred to a

Court or Tribunal without the CONSENT of all the parties to the dispute

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CHINA’S CURRENT POSITION ? ?

Three-Pronged Argument ? Sovereignty over all features (not just islands) and their

adjacent territorial sea Sovereign Rights and Jurisdiction in the EEZ and

Continental Shelf measured from the features Historical Rights and Jurisdiction (and control) over the

natural resources in and under the waters within the 9-dased line, even within the EEZ of the coastal States

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- In relation to EEZ movements by military and scientific vessels

- The following are not clear on their legal position – or require consent for military uses in the EEZ:

- India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Maldives, Philippines, Portugal, Uruguay, Malaysia, Vietnam, Kenya, (Thailand)…and others

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SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES IN SOUTH ASIA

As adjudicated by ITLOS

14 Mar 2012

Unfriendly Neighbors:Beaufort Sea

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