Rapidly Growing Cities and their impact on Solid Waste .... Wilson.pdf · CURRENT AND FUTURE PRIORITIES ... service providers Informal sector Producer ... Door-to-door informal collector,

Rapidly Growing Cities and their

impact on Solid Waste Management

Professor David C Wilson

Independent Waste & Resource Management Consultant

Imperial College London

ISWA Presidential Advisory Committee,

7-8 June 2013, Vienna

My brief for this presentation

1. Population development

2. Rural - urban migration

3. Regional changes

4. Forecasting future waste generation

PART 2: Implications for the waste sector

5. Current status/ recent progress of

SWM in developing countries

6. Future priorities

PART 1: Forecasting future waste quantities

Estimated and projected world population (billions, 1950-2100)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division

(2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

Estimated and projected world population

by region (medium variant, billions, 1950-2100)



Distribution

of world

population

(medium

variant)



Population change by region 2010-2100)



Population of Europe and Africa



Note:

this medium

variant

projection

assumes a

significant fall

in fertility rates

in Africa

Population also migrating to cities

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division:

World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York, 2012

N

Urban growth mainly in Asia and Africa



% increase projected

Distribution of world urban population



Percentage of urban population and

location of large cities, 1960



2 Megacities

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Maps/images/l_urban_1960.gif





4 Megacities






22 Megacities






34 Megacities


Total population by city size class (millions)



The World’s largest 50 cities: 2010 - 2100 Region 2010 2025 2050 2075 2100

Europe 4 2 0

North America 6 3 1

Japan 2 2 1

Latin America 9 6 4

Asis (excluding Japan) 23 23 16

Middle East –

North Africa 4 5 3

Sub-Saharan Africa 2 9 25

Range of populations

(million) 6-36 7-36 16-42 23-58 17-88

Numbers of megacities 21 27 50 70 83

Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata:

‘Solid waste in the World’s 100 largest cities in the 20th century

Waste per capita increases with income level

High-income

countries: • Waste per capita

doubled since 1980

• Perform worst

Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012).

Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.

Waste Management & Research, 30, 237-254.

Predicted decreases in waste generation

per capita at high levels of GNI/Capita

Source: current draft paper by Dan Hoornweg and Perinaz Bhada-Tata:

‘Solid waste in the World’s 100 largest cities in the 20th century

Waste Generation by Region (Current)

1.3 billion tonnes/yr MSW

OECD generates ~ 50% world’s waste – “outlier”

China produces 70% of EAP region waste

Source: Dan Hoornweg:

data from ‘What a Waste’,

2012, World Bank

Waste Generation by Region (now & 2025)

2.2 billion tonnes/yr MSW (69% increase)

Big growth in EAP, SAR, AFR; OECD not outlier

* Bubble size proportional to total urban population



2012, World Bank

Total solid

waste quantities

and composition by income level,

now and 2025

Source: ‘What a Waste’, 2012, World Bank

Waste

composition Affected by:

• Geography: building materials, ash content (HH heating), green waste.

• Climate: Ulan Bator, Mongolia ash is 60% of the MSW in winter, 20% in summer.

• Income: Wealthier nations have more complex waste, lower organic content

• Culture: differences in food consumed (eg, packaged or fresh), electronic equipment used changes nature of waste

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Current 2025 Current 2025 Current 2025 Current 2025

Low income Lower Middle

income

Upper Middle

income

High income

Waste composition

Others

Metal

Glass

Plastic

Paper

Organic

Source: ‘What a Waste’, 2012, World Bank

CURRENT AND FUTURE PRIORITIES

FOR SWM AROUND THE WORLD

Photo credits: © Jeroen Ijgosse; David C Wilson;, Mansoor Ali

CBO collection in

Ouagadougou, Burkina

Faso

Modern landfill in

Hong Kong

Selling recycled bottles,

Dhaka

Simplified ISWM analytical framework

Physical

Public health –

Collection

Inclusivity – User and

Provider

Financial

Sustainability

3Rs – Reduce,

Reuse, Recycle

Sound

Institutions

& Pro-active

Policies

Governance Environment

– Disposal

© David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis

Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C.

and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management

in the World’s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat

Waste Management Drivers in what is

now the developed world: 1020-2020

1020 1850 1970 1990 2000

Resource

value

Public Health

- collection

Climate change

Environment

- disposal

© DCW

2010

Resource

management

Rediscover

recycling

2020

Recent drivers

in the ‘North’

Key Drivers in the developing world

1020 1850 1970 1990 2000

Resource

value

Public Health

- collection

Environment

- disposal

© DCW

2010 2020

1st driver: Public Health – Focus on Collection

Waste blocking

a storm drain.

Bamako, Mali

Burning uncollected waste, Venezuela

Direct: Increased incidence of sickness among children living in households without a waste collection service:

Dengue fever clean-up campaign, Quezon City Photo credits clockwise from top left: © Jeroen Ijgosse; Erica Trauba; SWAPP

Data from Demographic and Health surveys:

o Diarrhoea – rate x 2 or more

o Acute respiratory infections – rate x 6

Indirect: water-

borne disease via

blocked drains and

flooding

Public health – collection coverage

GNI per capita (000' $)

Colle

ction /

sw

eepin

g c

overa

ge (

%)

Income level

High

Upper-middle

Lower-middle

Low

1

500

700

900

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

30000

50000

0%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

World Bank website: 30-60% in low & middle income countries

Wilson, D.C., Rodic L.,

Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A.

and Alabaster, G. (2012).

Comparative analysis of

solid waste management in

20 cities.

Waste Management &

Research, 30, 237-254.

2nd driver:

Environment –

Focus on

phasing out

open dumps

Top: On Nooch,

Bangkok, 1983

Bottom: Jam Chakro,

Karachi, 2001

Photos: David C Wilson;

Jonathan Rouse

Environmental control – controlled disposal

Income Level State of the art

disposal

Simple

controlled

disposal

Uncontrolled

Disposal

High 100% 0% 0%

Upper-middle 75% 20% 5%

Lower-middle 61% 32% 7%

Low 29% 24% 47%

Substantial progress has been made, particularly in middle-income countries

Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste

Management in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

1990s baseline: open dumping still dominant

in middle and low-income countries

3rd Driver - Resource value – 3Rs

Recycling rates - formal vs informal

Income

Level

Average

%

Formal

%

Informal

%

High 54 54 0

Upper-

middle 15 1 15

Lower-

middle 27 11 16

Low 27 1 26

Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010).

Solid Waste Management in the World’s Cities.

Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

Major opportunity for win-win solutions through

partnership with the informal recycling sector

• Build recycling rates

• Move towards zero waste

• Improve livelihoods

• Improve working

conditions

• Save the city money

Itinerant waste buyer in Brazil

Sorting recycled plastics in Delhi

Photo credits: © Jeroen Ijgosse,

Enrico Fabian

A. Solid Waste

Management

interface

B. Materials &

value chain

interface

C. Social interface

O. Organisation &

empowerment

(underpinning

basis)

• Financial

sustainability

• Access to waste

• Separate waste

at source

Framework for selecting appropriate

interventions for informal sector integration

http://wmr.sagepub.com/content/30/9_suppl.

C Velis, DC Wilson et al. An analytical framework

and tool (‘InteRa’) for

integrating the informal

recycling sector in waste

and resource management

systems in developing

countries. Waste

Management & Research

September 2012 30: 43-66

http://wmr.sagepub.com/content/30/9_suppl

Rapid waste growth is inevitable if waste per

capita tracks economic growth

•Recycling is an easy

first option to reduce

waste for disposal

•Waste prevention is

also critical

•Waste prevention has

come onto agenda in

high-income countries

•Requires innovation in

developing countries

Source: Wilson, D.C., Rodic L., Scheinberg, A., Velis, C.A. and Alabaster, G. (2012).

Comparative analysis of solid waste management in 20 cities.

Waste Management & Research, 30, 237-254.

My only slide on waste prevention

in developing countries … Unsold food from shops, which would otherwise be discarded as waste, being sorted prior to distribution to some 15 000 people registered with

the social inclusion food bank in Belo Horizonte. Brazil

© SLU

Governance factors also important

Physical

Public health –

Collection

Inclusivity – User and

Provider

Financial

Sustainability

3Rs – Reduce,

Reuse, Recycle

Sound

Institutions

& Pro-active

Policies

Governance Environment

– Disposal

© David Wilson, Ljiljana Rodic, Costas Velis

Concept: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C.

and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management

in the World’s Cities. Earthscan for UN-Habitat

Good governance – partnering with ALL

stakeholders in an ISWM system

Municipality

Service users

State Agencies

Neighbouring municipalities

Private service

providers

Informal sector

Producer responsibility organisations

NGOs / CBOs

Development partners

Inclusivity: Focus in Particular on Users &

Service Providers

Municipality

Service users

State Agencies


Private service

providers

Informal sector

Producer responsibility organisations

NGOs / CBOs


Achieving user inclusivity

Citizens Committee

At Barangay level in

Quezon City, Philippines

Participative planning

Catia La Mar, Venezuela

Photos: SWAPP; Jeroen IJgosse

Collection

Photo credits clockwise from top left: © WASTE; Erica Trauba; Justin Lang, Zero Waste South Australia; Curepipe Municipality; Ljiljana Rodic

Some examples

of diversity in

service

provision

Door-to-door informal collector, India

Curepipe, Mauritius Adelaide, Australia Bicycle cart delivering to small transfer station in Kunming

CBO collection in Bamako, Mali

Modernisation does not necessarily mean motorisation

Financial sustainability - affordability

Income Level City SW

budget per

capita

City SW budget per capita

as % of

GDP per capita

range average

High $75 0.03 - 0.40% 0.17%

Upper-middle $33 0.14 - 1.19% 0.59%

Lower-middle $10 0.40 - 1.22% 0.69%

Low* $1.4 0.14 – 0.52% 0.32%

* Data only available for 3 of the 6 low-income cities (for 16 out of 20 cities in total)

Data source: Scheinberg A, Wilson D.C. and Rodic L. (2010). Solid Waste Management

in the World’s Cities. Published for UN-Habitat by Earthscan, London

Affordability is a key issue in the lower income countries

• Fees < 1-2% of household income

People are willing to pay –

when they can see the benefits

Raising awareness

amongst citizens to

pay for waste

collection goes

hand in hand with

collection service

improvement

Maputo,

Mozambique

Photo: Joachim Stretz

- which is often for primary collection,

to improve the living conditions of their children

Sound Institutions, Proactive Policies Adequacy of national

SWM framework

1. Legislation and regulations

2. Strategy/policy

3. Guidelines and

implementation procedures

4. National institution

responsible for SWM policy

5. Regulatory control

6. Extended producer

responsibility

Degree of local

institutional coherence

1. Organisational structure

2. Institutional capacity

3. City-wide strategy and plan

4. Availability and quality of

SWM data

5. Management, control and

supervision of service delivery

6. Inter-municipal co-operation

Source: D.C. Wilson et al. Benchmark Indicators for Integrated & Sustainable

Waste Management (ISWM). Paper to ISWA World Congress, 2013

REFLECTIONS – IN SUMMARY

Photo credits: © City of Rotterdam; Kossara Bozhilova-Kisheva; Bhushan Tuladhar

A diversity of approaches to separate collection for recycling

Kerbside sort in Rotterdam Bring bins in Varna,

Bulgaria

Exchanging recyclables for

onions Siddhipur, Nepal

69% increase in waste generation by 2025 - and the shifting regional focus of SWM challenges

‘Triple whammy’:

1. Rapidly growing populations

2. Rural- urban migration

3. Waste per capita increases with economic growth

* Bubble size proportional to total urban population



2012, World Bank

SWM priorities are defined by

the physical requirements …

• Extend collection

coverage

• Reduce waste

generation

• Build recycling rates

• Eliminate open

dumping

• Appropriate treatment DCW’s version of the waste hierarchy

© DCW

Key questions for assessing when treatment is

appropriate

• Waste-to-energy

incinerators

– Will our waste burn

unsupported?

– Does it compete with

recycling for paper, plastics?

– Can we afford the gate fee?

– Does the environmental

regulator have the powers &

institutional capacity to

control and monitor the gas

cleaning?

Baoan incinerator in Shenzhen, China

Photo credit: Timothy O'Rourke for The New York Times

• Novel technology • Is it proven?

• Beware the magic solution

• If it seems too good to be

true – then it probably is!

http://large.stanford.edu/publications/coal/references/bradsher3/images/f2big.jpg

.. but successful implementation requires

good governance & partnerships

• Partnerships

underpin all the

Habitat governance

factors

• Municipalities

cannot solve the

SWM problem

alone

Municipality

Service users

State Agencies


Private service

providers

Informal sector

Producers

NGOs / CBOs


Thank you for

listening!

www.davidcwilson.com [email protected]

[email protected]

Documents

Rapidly Growing Cities and their impact on Solid Waste .... Wilson.pdf · CURRENT AND FUTURE PRIORITIES ... service providers Informal sector Producer ... Door-to-door informal collector,