RAPAD Board Meeting Communique 6 September 2019 · Georgina and Diamantina rivers and tributaries) and floodplains including excluding unconventional gas (coal seam, tight, and shale

RAPAD Board Meeting 6 September 2019 Communiqué

As a part of normal business, the Board of RAPAD held a scheduled meeting via video-audio, Friday September 6, 2019; the 9th meeting for the calendar year.

Presentations: Presentations were received from: o Graeme Milligan, Qld Reconstruction Authority provided an update regarding the Flood

Warning Infrastructure Network Project (fact sheet att),o Dr Greg Leach, AgForce, relating to the Regional Planning Interests Act and resource

activities, including nonconventional gas in the Channel Country; and AgForce landuse principles (att).

Matters: o Constitution – As an action arising from the previous meeting, in relation to the

currency of the RAPAD constitution, the CEO tabled advice from King & Co. Generally, the constitution is satisfactory King & Co advised although some minor amendments were suggested, and the Board discussed several other potential amendments to facilitate a consistency between current and potential future needs.

o DLGRMA – As an action arising from the previous meeting, the CEO tabled correspondence forwarded to the DLGRMA DG, Warwick Agnew, relating to mandatory training for local government election candidates,

o OQTA – RAPAD MoU: The CEO advised the A/CEO, OQTA had advised him the MoU was with the Chair of OQTA for their Board consideration. The MoU was an action of the Tourism Futures Action Plan - https://www.rapad.com.au/assets/Uploads/Tourism-Futures-Action-Plan-Final-190429.pdf

o The board received correspondence from Lake Eyre Basin traditional owners in whichthey outlined: “A Statement from the attendees of ‘Our Water, Our Future: A Gatheringof Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners’ April 9-10, 2019” (att). The Board alsoconsidered correspondence from AgForce seeking feedback on engagement relatingto potential unconventional gas and resource activities in the Channel Country. TheBoard drew reference to previous correspondence, and the presentation, from theWestern Rivers Alliance (att) in late 2018, and the relationships, or potentialrelationships, between these approaches and the Regional Planning Interests Act,which the Government was considering reviewing. The Board has previously written tothe relevant Ministers seeking involvement in any consultation regarding the RPIA,and the CEO again encouraged that should councils wish to become active in thisarea, they should make contact directly with the relevant Ministers. The Board agreedto approach stakeholders to seek to facilitate a multi-stakeholder discussion on thesematters,

o Rural Financial Counselling Service North Qld www.rfcsnq.com.au – The Boardreceived the draft minutes of the RFCSNQ Project Management Committee meetingheld 19 August 2019, where the major matter discussed was:• Annual 18-19 reporting requirements, and the CEO outlined the increase in clients

over the 18-19 reporting period where that increase was due to a number of factorssuch as, but not limited to, the ongoing drought over much of North Qld west of thedivide, Farm Household Allowance (FHA) take up, the monsoonal trough in the

Winton and North West area, increased government support via various programs such as through QRIDA and the Regional Investment Corporation (RIC),

• Dr Thea Vooghts, TC Bernie School of Business, University of Qld, independent report on the RFCSNQ operational18-19 year,

o Finance – The Board received the July financials from the CEO, o QATC transition: The CEO updated the Board on his recent discussions with the

QATC Project Management Committee. Cr Chandler and K.Arnold are RAPAD nominees to the QATC local transition committee and all outcomes from that transition process are available at https://www.qatc.edu.au/2019-transition/project-management-office/ , The Board remains committed to being an active participant in a positive transition process for the LPC and remains in contact with the PMO regarding this,

o Mental Health Roundtable – The Board discussed the mental health roundtable, which was attended by six mayors. The mental health roundtable was initiated by RAPAD and RFCSNQ with the WQPHN, in 2018 https://www.rapad.com.au/assets/Uploads/CW-MH-Roundtable-Report-Reason-for-Optimism-September-2018-1.pdf and this recent roundtable was a follow up to that original forum. The statement by local doctor, Dr David Walker at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WLBlh61Kac#action=share (and on www.rapad.com.au - home page) captures the important role RAPAD, and also in this case, RFCSNQ, took in initiating this approach, and will continue to do so, to ensure as best it can that ‘Team Central West’ (refer Pg 13 of above referenced roundtable document) delivers the optimum level of service to the Central West region,

o Northern Waters – The Board considered correspondence, forwarded to several Mayors, from Sir Leo Hielscher AC and Sir Frank Moore AO in which they seek political support, from all government levels, for their ‘Northern Waters’ concept. The Board agreed that while the proposal was visionary it held some concerns for the LEB system. The Board agreed to take no further action at this time.

o Development of a Blueprint for the Qld Sheep Industry – The Board approved support for the AgForce initiated blueprint and will commit $10000.00 to the project subject to final detail. The CEO drew reference to this below following extract from the document:

highlighting the innovative reporting RAPAD led with, with the www.notjustafence.org.au website, as a part of its delivery of the Australian and Queensland Government funded cluster fencing project, an investment now of approximately $10m of government funds, through RAPAD, in turn realising an overall investment, between public and private, of $40-50m across the Central West,

o CEO tabled, for noting, or information:• An update on the RESQ Boards’ recent meetings held 5 August,• The Department of Small Business Employment and Training (DESBT) recent

approval of a trial for RAPAD, in conjunction with RAPAD Skilling, of a tailored program for customer service skills training under the Cert 3 guarantee. This is direct outcome of RAPADs Regional Skills Investment Strategy (RSIS) project funded through DESBT. https://www.rapad.com.au/programs-and-projects/regional-skills-investment-strategy/

• DSDMIP facilitated Central Qld Local Government Priority Projects (att),• Seasonal Outlook • Regional Australia Institute Regional Population Growth (att)• Rangelands Declaration (att)• LGAQ 8-point Drought draft consultation paper – comments open to 27 September• Remote Area Tax Concessions and Payments -

https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/remote-tax/draft/remote-tax-draft-overview.pdf

• National Regional, Rural and Remote Education Strategyhttps://www.education.gov.au/national-regional-rural-and-remote-education-strategy with recommendations being:ü Improve access to tertiary study options for students in regional, rural and

remote areas,ü Improve access to financial support, to support greater fairness and more equal

opportunity,ü Improve the quality and range of student support services for regional, rural and

remote students to address the challenges of transition and higher rates of attrition,

ü Build aspiration, improve career advice and strengthen regional, rural and remote schools to better prepare students for success,

ü Improve participation and outcomes for regional, rural and remote students from equity groups including low SES students, Indigenous students, students with disability and remote students,

ü Strengthen the role of tertiary education providers in regional development and grow Australia’s regions,

ü Establish mechanisms to coordinate the implementation effort and support monitoring of the Strategy.

Unfortunately it presents some sobering data for remote regions and people are encouraged to read it:

Of Interest: Outback Aerodrone Symposium - https://www.outbackaerodrone.com.au/ 21-23 September Reports and Publications are available at: https://www.rapad.com.au/publications/rapad-reports-and-publications/

A Statement from the attendees of ‘Our Water, Our Future: A Gathering of Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners’ April 9-10, 2019 On April 9th and 10th, 2019 representatives from a number of Traditional Owner groups throughout the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin came together in Brisbane to discuss caring for their traditional lands, rivers and waterways. We, as Traditional Owners of the country and waters of the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin acknowledge the Tibooburra resolution (2011) and have come together again to deliver this shared statement. For the Traditional Owners, caring for country is more than a matter of economic prosperity, it is a sacred and ancient traditional responsibility carried forward from mother to daughter, father to son and includes social, environmental, and cultural considerations. Traditional people live by the seasons and think of country as their mother and of water as the sacred lifeblood, keeping them connected through hunting, fishing, and ceremonial practices. We are kept strong and understand our culture by connecting to the stories and songs that live in our country, and through them continue to observe our own traditional lore, customs, cultural boundaries and obligations. Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin is one of the world’s greatest desert river basins and it is currently under threat from a range of development pressures. Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners are standing together to protect and manage the waterways, floodplains and groundwaters of the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin for future generations. Representatives from eight Traditional Owner groups of Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin who attended this Gathering have united to:

1. Recognise the Tibooburra Resolution (2011) and voice our support for restoring strong legislative protections to Queensland’s Channel Country rivers (Cooper Creek, Georgina and Diamantina rivers and tributaries) and floodplains including excluding unconventional gas (coal seam, tight, and shale gas) mining and other mining and resource extraction from the river and floodplain areas

2. Support Traditional Owners to assert our cultural authority across the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin a) Recognise and assert our collective cultural continuity through sharing and

learning our traditional stories and connecting to country for current and future generations across the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin

b) Honour our responsibility and obligation we collectively have to the country and water over our traditional lands - Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin.

3. Establish a Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Task Force1 to lead the establishment of a peak body (terms of reference, structure, membership etc)

4. Work towards the establishment of a Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Peak Body2 to be endorsed by Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners to:

1 The Task Force is a temporary body nominated at the gathering to drive further engagement with Traditional Owners of the Kati-Thanda Lake Eyre Basin in the establishment of a peak body to be nominated and endorsed at a later date

a) Engage with and support Traditional Owners in protecting country and waterways in relation to our specific cultural authority and knowledge of the lands where we live and practice traditional culture.

b) Lead engagement with stakeholders, governments and Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin Traditional Owners on management decisions that are affecting our country and waterways within Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin.

c) To develop position statements on Traditional Owner governance and management arrangement for the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin that includes irrigated agriculture, overgrazing, vegetation and feral pest management, mining, petroleum, and unconventional extraction methods such as fracking across the entire Kati Thanda – Lake Eyre Basin

d) To collaborate, guide and negotiate with governments and stakeholders to fully resource state and/or federally funded Indigenous Rangers in the Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin to deliver cultural, social, economical and environmental benefits for Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre Basin and its people in accordance to their cultural obligations to county

2 The intended Peak Body will not represent individual Traditional Owner groups in relation to their traditional rights to land/ Native Title rights - authority to speak for country always remains with the traditional owners of that land

Summary

The Newman Queensland Government removed some protection from the Channel Country rivers

and floodplains. While the rivers and floodplains remain protected from large scale irrigation and

hard-rock mining, they are now at risk from the impact of unconventional gas projects. The current

Palaszczuk Government has committed to ensure the rivers and floodplains of the Channel Country

are protected. We understand they will commence consultation on this soon. The Western Rivers

Alliance believes that a statement from RAPAD - seeking proper consultation on the issue- will send

a strong signal to the Government on the importance of engaging with the local communities and

ensure good decision-making processes and outcomes.

Background

The Western Rivers Alliance is a long-standing informal alliance between individual graziers,

Traditional Owners, conservation organisations and scientists advocating for the protection of rivers,

floodplains and ground waters of the Channel Country.

In 2011, the Bligh Government made Declarations for the Cooper, Diamantina and Georgina systems

under the Wild Rivers Act 2005. This strengthened protections for Channel Country rivers and

floodplains against large-scale irrigation and prohibited mining and other industrial activities that

would disrupt river flows and water quality.

In 2013, the Newman Government revoked the Wild River Declarations and in 2014 replaced the

Wild Rivers Act 2005 with the the Regional Planning Interests Act 2014. Under this legislation there is

a level of protection afforded to Channel Country rivers and floodplains from key threats such as

broadacre cropping, large-scale water storage (dams), and hard rock mining. Unfortunately, there is

much weaker protection for unconventional gas mining on the rivers and floodplains of the Channel

Country. The Western Rivers Alliance believes that unconventional gas mining in Channel Country

rivers and floodplains presents an unacceptable risk to the outstanding economic, cultural, and

ecological values of these areas.

At the last election, the Palaszczuk Government committed to work with Traditional Owners and

other stakeholders in the region to ensure the rivers of the Channel Country are protected including

a review of the Regional Planning Interests Act. It is our understanding that consultation on this will

commence soon.

Unconventional gas mining

Conventional oil and gas mining has been active in the Channel Country since the 1960s. However,

the expansion of the unconventional gas industry- shale, tight, or coal seam gas, is a relatively new

development. The proposed expansion of shale and tight gas in the Channel Country is particularly

concerning. Unconventional gas differs from conventional gas in two key ways. Firstly, it is not found

in a convenient and readily accessible rock reservoir but spread thinly through rock layers. Secondly,

it requires new, specialised (unconventional) techniques to extract it. These can include horizontal

drilling and, in the case of shale and tight gas, often requires ‘hydraulic fracturing’ by injecting

chemicals and gels with large volumes of water at a very high pressure. It also generally requires

large numbers of densely spaced wells, extensive networks of roads and pipelines, and wastewater

holding dams and treatment plants.

The Western Rivers Alliance is particularly concerned about the impact of unconventional gas mining

on the rivers and floodplains of the Channel Country. The Western Rivers Alliance commissioned a

report that outlines the risks from unconventional gas mining to the Channel Country in detail. Our

primary concerns are:

• The risk of soil and water contamination from either well failures or from overspill or

structural damage to waste water storage ponds during floods. The risk of soil and water

contamination is a serious threat to the Channel Country’s ‘clean and green’ beef industry.

• Spread of pest weeds through the development of new road networks and increased traffic.

• A network of densely spaced wells that create an industrialised landscape- threatening the

integrity of the existing natural landscapes of natural rivers and floodplains greatly

appreciated by both locals and tourists who visit the area and contribute to the economy.

• Development of roads and infrastructure on the floodplains has the potential to disrupt

overland flood flows that support the productivity of the floodplain areas. On the flat

Channel Country floodplains even low above-ground structures can cause major changes in

overland flows.

• Drilling and fracking of deep shale gas wells often requires large volumes of water. The

Australian Council of Learned Academies has warned that a fully developed shale gas

industry in an arid area has the potential to become a major user of groundwater.

Our position

The Western Rivers Alliance has significant concerns about the likely impacts of unconventional gas

mining on the Channel Country’s floodplains, rivers, wetlands and ground water. The alliance shares

many Australians’ desire for regional economic development, new income streams and employment

opportunities, particularly in Outback regions. However, these should not come at the expense of

long-standing sustainable industries- such as grazing and tourism- and the outstanding scientific,

natural and cultural values of the area.

The Western Rivers Alliance strongly holds the position that unconventional gas mining presents an

unacceptable risk to the outstanding agricultural, tourism, cultural, and ecological values of the

Channel Country rivers and floodplains. The Alliance is working to strengthen the existing statutory

protections to prevent new unconventional gas mining development on the rivers and floodplains of

the Channel Country.

Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project July 2019

Queensland’s Flood Warning InfrastructureIn Queensland, more than 3000 rainfall and river gauges inform statewide flood warnings and forecasts. These are owned and operated by multiple entities including state and local government, the private sector, and the Bureau of Meteorology.

Flood waters don’t respect boundaries. It is therefore extremely important for all areas of Queensland to have information from other flood warning systems. This will help keep our communities safe by ensuring they are well informed by timely weather and flood warnings and forecasts.

Working together for the best possible flood warnings The Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA) is working with key stakeholders including the Bureau of Meteorology and local governments to improve Queensland’s flood warning infrastructure.

A high level of collaboration and information sharing is necessary to ensure accurate and consistent flood warning information is being provided to the Bureau of Meteorology and to our local communities.

Flood Warning Infrastructure Network ProjectTo support Queensland communities in their recovery following the North and Far North Queensland Monsoon Trough disaster event (25 January to 14 February 2019), the $2 million Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project was approved as part of the $242 million Category C and D Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements (DRFA) package, jointly funded by the Australian and Queensland Governments.

Project purposeThe purpose of the Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project is to analyse existing flood warning infrastructure, and work with the Bureau of Meteorology and local communities to identify high priority locations requiring additional flood warning infrastructure capability.

Project benefitsThe Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project is keeping our communities safe by delivering: • suitable flood warning infrastructure upgrades to

the most appropriate locations throughout the flood-impacted area

• improvements to Bureau of Meteorology services to support primary producers and communities

• a range of assets to support better information being made available including the use of flood cameras at strategic locations.

Project areas of operation During the initial stage of the project, QRA will be in contact with councils and other stakeholders in the project areas of operation outlined in this fact sheet.

Key project actions• Facilitate a catchment approach - locally led,

regionally coordinated• Define flood warning infrastructure as means for

providing situational awareness • Incorporate existing initiatives into one common

operating picture• Analyse existing infrastructure upgrade initiatives

against identified risk areas• Identify gaps in the flood warning infrastructure

network• Develop and apply principles for prioritisation

across the areas of operation • Prioritise flood warning infrastructure

improvements across the areas of operation• Support procurement of infrastructure• Establish / align with emerging governance

arrangements.

For more informationQueensland Reconstruction AuthorityEmail [email protected] www.qra.qld.gov.au/fwinPhone (07) 3008 7200

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.qra.qld.gov.au/fwin

Townsville and surrounds• Mackay • Burdekin• Townsville• Hinchinbrook

• Charters Towers• Whitsunday• Palm Island

Flood Warning Infrastructure Network ProjectAreas of Operation

QR

A D

OC

/19

/29

79

5

North West Queensland• Burke• Cloncurry• McKinlay• Mornington• Mount Isa

Far North Queensland• Aurukun• Cairns• Cassowary Coast• Cook • Croydon• Douglas• Etheridge• Hope Vale Aboriginal • Kowanyama Aboriginal• Lockhart River Aboriginal

• Mapoon Aboriginal • Mareeba• Napranum Aboriginal • Northern Peninsula Area• Pormpuraaw Aboriginal • Torres• Torres Strait Island• Wujul Wujul Aboriginal • Yarrabah Aboriginal

RAPAD• Boulia• Longreach• Barcoo• Diamantina• Winton

• Richmond• Carpentaria • Flinders

www.qra.qld.gov.au/fwin


https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/Townsville and surrounds AO_20190724.pdf




https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/North West QLD AO_20190724.pdf




https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/Far North QLD AO_20190724.pdf




https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-07/Central West RAPAD QLD AO_20190724.pdf




Flood Warning Infrastructure Network Project

Challenges• Black spots – technical gaps and communications issues• Manual Gauge Reporting, Bureau Statewide Review and upgrade program• Additional funding acquired for gauges by councils includes the Natural

Disaster Resilience Program, Local Government Grants and Subsidies Scheme, Building Better Regions Fund and self-funding

• Bureau adjusting maintenance support to councils• Investment by third parties • Consistency with National Flood Warning Infrastructure Framework• Alignment with Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements Category C and D

and Bureau weather radar and associated rain gauge initiatives

www.qra.qld.gov.au/fwin

Establish ongoing governance and partnerships

Apply experience gained from Fitzroy Resilient Queensland pilot project

Linkages with related projects and elements of a Total Flood Warning System

1

2

3

4

5

6

Desired outcome

A communitythat is well informed

by timely and appropriate flood warnings

Catchment based

approach

Regional collaboration

Align with other infrastructure

upgrade programs

Strategic approach

Timeframe

July –September

2019

October –December

2019

January –March2020

April – May2020

June 2020 –May 2021

June2021

Stakeholder and council engagement

Data collection

Networkoptimisation

Develop implementation

strategy

Undertake procurement of

upgrades

Project closeout


AgForce Landuse Protection Principles

As the body for agriculture, AgForce requires that alternative and potentially impacting land uses

ensure:

1. There is recognition that natural capital has an inherent value; 2. Human health and well-being must not be sacrificed; 3. All projects deliver a benefit; 4. There are no negative impacts on existing or future agricultural opportunities;

Before

• All projects are assessed on environmental, social and economic criteria;

• There is a formal mechanism for agriculture to be involved in assessment;

• Projects should not be assessed in isolation and cumulative impacts assessed;

• Potential impacts need to be objectively, and accurately quantified rigorously and independently reviewed;

• Agricultural landholders to have equal representation, available resources and bargaining power;

During

• All projects must have comprehensive monitoring and transparent reporting;

• Non-compliance will trigger cease work;

• Enforcement is primarily the responsibility of government, but landholders must have a right to compel action;

• Industry and Government must proactively identify and manage cumulative impacts, both individual project cumulative impacts and multiple projects cumulative impacts;

After

• Land needs to be rehabilitated to be the pre-existing natural conditions

• Financial assurance needs to be adequate for rehabilitation.

Declaration for the future of our Rangelands Brisbane Dialogue, 2019: a conversation on Queensland’s rural future and

implications across the Australian outback.

In the face of... ➔ A deep and enduring attachment to Queensland’s outback country, its rural communities, and the

iconic ecosystems on which they depend;

➔ Ongoing decline in these communities due to unrelenting economic pressures, a legacy of unfortunate planning and legislation, and the lack of bold, forward-looking policy choices;

➔ The compounding effects of a highly variable climate that is expected to become hotter and increasingly variable, with more severe episodes of flood and drought, and persistent ecosystem stress; and

➔ The resulting vulnerability of production systems to frequent disruption, a widespread decline in land condition, and the tragic loss of biodiversity throughout the ecosystems that sustain us; then

We, as Queenslanders, need to... ➔ Accept there are pressing issues in our Rangelands and an urgency to bring urban and rural

communities into serious and constructive conversation;

➔ Celebrate our common agreement on the biological, cultural, and economic necessity of a flourishing, populous, and life-affirming outback, while minimising attachment to outdated ideologies that only serve to separate people from one another;

➔ Affirm that landscape management properly rests in the hands of people acting with modern knowledge and Indigenous wisdom, and that they are the trusted custodians of sustainable utilisation, conservation, and regeneration;

➔ Recognise that more investment is required to build the ecological health of our country, including arrangements that deliver stewardship and natural capital payments; therefore,

We, the undersigned, commit to... ➔ Cultivating an enduring and respectful rapport between land managers and the public, enabling

fulfilment of mutual rights and obligations;

➔ Supporting a Rangelands reform agenda that includes:

◆ Reviewing and revitalising institutional arrangements to deliver strengthened regional participation in land use planning, regulation, and conflict resolution;

◆ Programs to enable the informed and ethical use of data to ensure all people can participate in shaping the Rangelands future in a constructive manner, particularly in the area of natural capital accounting;

◆ Cooperative ownership of a biennial State of the Rangelands Report presenting social, biophysical, cultural, and economic indicators of condition and trend;

➔ Establishing a Rangelands Consultative Council, independent of government, but inclusive of it, to improve our institutional capacity for developing and delivering improved governance arrangements and practical management solutions across the Rangelands, for the benefit of the country, its rural communities, and for Australia’s current and future generations.

20 August, 2019

The Royal Society of Queensland AgForce Queensland NRM Regions Queensland

© State of Queensland, Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Planning, August 2019.

While every care has been taken in preparing this publication, the State of Queensland accepts no responsibility for decisions or actions taken as a result of any data, information, statement or advice, expressed or implied, contained within. To the best of our knowledge, the content was correct at the time of publishing.

CENTRAL QUEENSLAND - LOCAL GOVERNMENT

PROJECT PIPELINE

The Department of State Development, Manufacturing, Infrastructure and

Planning's Central Queensland Regional Office services a region covering

513,359.89 km� or about 28 percent of Queensland. The region encompasses

13 local government areas, has a population of 230,502� and in 2017/18

contributed $17,787 million to Queensland's economy�.

In July 2019, 12 of the 13 Central Queensland local governments came

together in Emerald to present and discuss each local government's priority

projects. The pipeline projects contained in this document have been

nominated by constituent local governments as important in creating

economic opportunities and maintaining and improving liveability.

� ABS 2016, Census of population and housing, time series profile, 2016, cat. no. 2003.0 � ID 2019, National economic indicators for local government areas, 2017/2018

Concept/Scoping Study

Pre-Feasibility Study

Bankable Feasibility/Business Case

Financing/Capital Raising

Detailed Design/Pre-Construction

Ÿ Accessibility and

affordability of air travel

Ÿ Agnes Water - Baffle Creek

Link Road

Ÿ Alpha – Muttaburra journey

to the centre of Queensland

Ÿ Birdsville Developmental

Road sealing

Ÿ Boulia - Mount Isa Highway

(excluding Cloncurry Shire

section) widening

Ÿ Construction of Todds Road

- Ingrey Road missing link

Ÿ Diamantina Developmental

Road sealing

Ÿ Dixon Drive - Kirkwood Road

intersection upgrade Stage 1

Ÿ Inland Rail extension

Toowoomba - Gladstone (via

Banana)

Ÿ Re-establishment of rail

services between Longreach

and Winton

Ÿ Road train access from

Capricorn Highway to

Biloela

Ÿ Tambo – Alpha road sealing

Ÿ Winton - Jundah Road

sealing

Ÿ Winton - Richmond Road

sealing

Ÿ Boulia Type 2 triple road

train facilities

Ÿ Gladstone Heavy Vehicle

Transport Corridor

Ÿ Dawson Developmental

Road sealing

Ÿ Eyre Developmental Road

sealing

Ÿ Kennedy Developmental

Road widening

Ÿ Blackall - Jericho Road

sealing

Ÿ Boulia Airport upgrade

Ÿ Donohue Highway (Boulia –

Tobermorey Station) sealing

Ÿ Gladstone Port Access Road

Stage 2



TRANSPORT

Ÿ Central Queensland Inland

Port feeder roads








ENERGY AND WATER

Ÿ Barcaldine region renewable

energy provision

Ÿ Capella water supply

pipeline

Ÿ Downstream uses of

geothermal production

water

Ÿ Gladstone Alternative Energy

Strategy including hydrogen

and biofuels

Ÿ Gladstone Waste to Energy

Strategy

Ÿ Mistake Creek Dam in

Bladensburg National Park

Ÿ Central Highlands water

security audit of Theresa

Creek and the

Comet/Nogoa Rivers

junction

Ÿ Boulia Sewerage Treatment

Plant upgrade


Port - LGIP water supply


Port water supply – Ensham

Mine void

Ÿ Longreach renewable

energy installations

Ÿ Raising of the Town Weir on

the Thomson River and

replacement of Isisford Weir

Ÿ Longreach sewer relining

Ÿ Longreach water mains

replacement

Ÿ Longreach water treatment

plant filters upgrade

Ÿ Nathan Dam








TOURISM

Ÿ Capricorn Coast charter

flights for tourism attraction

Ÿ Longreach Airport Arbour

and pathway

Ÿ The Channel Country

Institute

Ÿ Causeway Lake

redevelopment

Ÿ Development of indigenous

tourism experience at The

Palace near Jericho

Ÿ East Shores Harbour Arbour

pedestrian link

Ÿ Great Keppel Island

Indigenous Ranger Program

Ÿ Great Keppel Island

Rejuvenation Project

Ÿ Round Hill Creek navigation

channel

Ÿ Yeppoon Heritage Railway

Precinct development

Ÿ Fairbairn Dam recreation

area

Ÿ Jundah Caravan Park

cabins

Ÿ Thomson River master

planning

Ÿ Winton Film Studio and

disaster recovery centre

Ÿ Winton Showgrounds

upgrade

Ÿ Yeppoon Foreshore

Convention Centre (Keppel

Bay Sailing Club)

Ÿ Outback Rail Adventure

Ÿ Pise` House and Aboriginal

Tracker's Hut restoration

Ÿ Tambo Trucking Heritage

Attraction

Ÿ Birdsville Courthouse

restoration

Ÿ Ilfracombe Machinery Mile

pathway








AGRICULTURE

Ÿ Channel Country organic

beef production

certification

Ÿ Barcaldine region sheep or

kangaroo processing facility

Ÿ Blackall wool handling

facility and modular wool

scour

Ÿ Woorabinda Agricultural

expansion

Ÿ Boulia organic cattle

spelling facility

Ÿ Emerald meat processing

plant

Ÿ Expansion of cluster fencing

program

Ÿ Longreach Saleyards

redevelopment

Ÿ Moura GrainCorp Project

Regeneration

Ÿ Yeppoon High Pressure

Processing Plant








LIVEABILITY

Ÿ Boyne Tannum Aquatic

Recreation Centre

Ÿ Capricorn Coast Equestrian

Sports Centre

Ÿ Capricorn Coast Memorial

Gardens Stage 2

Ÿ Livingstone transport

(mobility) strategy and

charging stations

Ÿ Marley Brown Oval upgrade

Ÿ Mobile phone black spot

improvement

Ÿ Woorabinda Community

Hall

Ÿ Yeppoon Foreshore

Fisherman's Wharf and

Footbridge Connection

Ÿ Assisted care to high needs

patient facilities in Winton

Ÿ Birdsville Community Hall

Ÿ Emerald entertainment

facility

Ÿ Longreach Aquatic Centre

wading pool upgrade

Ÿ Blackall-Tambo Rural Reach

Ÿ Boulia Shire Regional

Community Hub

Ÿ Construction of the Ivy

Anderson Home in

Springsure

Ÿ Cooee Bay Sports Complex

Ÿ Next stage development of

The Globe in Barcaldine

Ÿ Woorabinda mobile

equipment workshop

upgrade

Ÿ Woorabinda service station

upgrade

Ÿ Yeppoon simulation and

virtual reality hub

Ÿ Boulia residential housing

Ÿ Longreach Aquatic Centre

pool filter replacement

Ÿ Phillip Street Communities

& Families Precinct Stage 1








Ÿ Barcaldine Region drone

and autonomous vehicle

strategy

Ÿ Barcoo Shire business

development

Ÿ Galilee Basin supply chain

opportunities

Ÿ AirHub CQ

Ÿ Central Queensland Coal

Project (formerly Styx Coal

Project) supply chain

opportunities

Ÿ Longreach Pastoral College

transition

Ÿ Repurposing of the old

Blackall Hospital as an

evaluative medicine

training facility

Ÿ Shoalwater Bay training

facility construction

opportunities

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

KNOWLEDGE POLICY PRACTICE

REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? THE ECONOMICS OF ALTERNATIVE AUSTRALIAN SETTLEMENT PATTERNS

August 2019

REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH – ARE WE READY? 1 / 41

Independent and informed by both research and ongoing dialogue with the community, the Regional

Australia Institute develops policy and advocates for change to build a stronger economy and better

quality of life in regional Australia – for the benefit of all Australians.

This work is the final report for a major project on Future Australian Settlement Patterns within the

Regional Australia Institute’s Shared Inquiry Program for Regional Research which is supported by the

Commonwealth and all State and Territory Governments with regional responsibilities.

This work is the culmination of internal analysis and research by the Regional Australia Institute. The

report also integrates the key findings of two supporting pieces of research undertaken by the RAI in

collaboration with Universities through the Regional Research Connections Partnership.

This research report translates and analyses findings of research to enable an informed public

discussion of regional issues in Australia. It is intended to assist people to think about their perspectives,

assumptions and understanding of regional issues. No responsibility is accepted by RAI Limited, its

Board or its funders for the accuracy of the advice provided or for the quality of advice or decisions

made by others based on the information presented in this publication.

Unless otherwise specified, the contents of this report remain the property of the Regional Australia

Institute. Reproduction for non-commercial purposes with attribution of authorship is permitted.

Thanks to Kevin Le for his work on the project during his time with the RAI, particularly the analysis of

the characteristics of inner cities, outer suburbs and regional areas. Thanks also to the University teams

from University of South Australia and Southern Cross University for their work and collaboration

throughout the project. The university research reports are available on the RAI website:

Settlement Patterns: Econometric Analysis

Future Urban and Regional Settlement Patterns: Scenario Analysis

This paper can be referenced as:

Archer J., Houghton K., and Vonthethoff B. (2019). Regional Population Growth – Are We Ready? The

economics of alternative Australian settlement patterns, Regional Australia Institute: Canberra.

P. 02 6260 3733

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Regional Australia is changing, and with this transformation comes boundless opportunities to rethink

what regional Australia will look like in the future and how we want to shape our country as a whole.

This report, Regional Population Growth – Are We Ready?, addresses key issues fundamental to our

future settlement patterns that challenge decision-makers to prioritise regional Australia and divert

future growth to connected regional cities. Policies which seek to encourage population movement to

regional centres would be instrumental in the transformation of regional Australia.

Australia is on track for substantial population growth in the coming decades, with the Australian Bureau of

Statistics (ABS) forecasting growth of up to 19 million additional people by 2056 – a 75 per cent increase.

If we continue with current geographic patterns of settlement, most of our future population will reside

in our major capital cities, while regional areas will experience only modest levels of growth. These

patterns reflect global trends towards increasing urbanisation and employment growth in city-based

service industries. As a result, Sydney and Melbourne will approach global megacity status, with

populations of 9.3 million and 10.2 million, respectively. Brisbane and Perth are projected to grow to

the scale of Sydney and Melbourne today.

While we celebrate the wealth and success of our globally connected inner cities, current urban

planning will see most future population growth in the outer suburbs. In Sydney, Melbourne and Perth,

the outer suburban population is projected to more than double. In Brisbane, the outer suburban

population is projected to nearly triple.

Rapid urban population growth creates challenges that are already clear to residents in the outer

suburbs of our major cities. High house prices paid by average wages and rising congestion have

already emerged as key points of debate as we consider the population growth to come.

Australia’s megacity future will emerge if we follow this business as usual scenario, but in reality, our

future settlement patterns and population growth are far from fixed. Australia has alternatives.

However, public debate and planning have paid limited attention to the role regional Australia can

play. The Regional Australia Institute’s (RAI’s) National Population Plan for Regional Australia was

developed to highlight the role of regional Australia.

This report looks at the economic consequences of alternative future population scenarios to better

inform the conversation about our future growth. The research, conducted in conjunction with the

University of South Australia, included investigating a set of regionally distributed population growth

scenarios for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, along with analysis of the scale of

agglomeration economies available to Australian cities. The scenarios test the effectiveness of

alternative settlement patterns for relieving commuting and house price pressures, and whether this

relief would come at a big cost to future incomes and employment opportunities.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


The scenario modelling found that under the business as usual base case, commute distances in outer

Sydney and Melbourne will increase by around 60 per cent and close to 25 per cent in outer Brisbane

and Perth. Under the alternative distributed population scenario, commute distances for outer suburban

Sydney would rise by 15 per cent, and Melbourne by 40 per cent. Brisbane’s outer suburban commute

distances rise by 2 per cent, and Perth’s by 11per cent.

Importantly, the analysis shows limited trade-offs in terms of future incomes or employment across

alternative scenarios. With supporting policies to maximise education and employment opportunities, as

well as job creation initiatives in regional areas alongside increased population growth, a more widely

distributed population growth outcome may achieve superior levels on these key economic indicators.

Figure 1: Predictions show both income and employment will increase modestly for outer suburbs,regardless of population distribution over the next 40 years. If the population distribution continues on its current trend towards even denser inner cities, house prices and congestion will dramatically increase. Alternatively, projections that focus on distributing settlement across the regions see house prices and congestion only modestly increase.

In examining alternative settlement patterns, the comparisons between current residents of outer

suburbs and regional cities are worth noting. When examining average incomes, the difference is

small at 10 per cent. For example, the average outer suburban Sydney worker earned $80,808 in

2016, whereas their NSW regional city counterpart earned $71,281.

However, a stark contrast emerges when comparing average house prices. In Melbourne, the average

home in the suburbs was valued at $776,276 in 2016, while in Victoria’s regional centres the figure

was less than half, at $344,365.

The modelling suggests that dispersing population growth increases incomes in regional cities while

having a limited impact on outer suburban areas. In Queensland, the modelling shows that regional

city workers could see higher average income growth than their outer suburban Brisbane counterparts,

under a highly dispersed population scenario which would see 20-40 per cent of future population

growth diverted to regional areas.


Employment data also shows that a worker in a regional centre has just as much likelihood of being

employed as those in the outer suburbs. A similar pattern also emerges concerning productivity. In the

case of Brisbane and Melbourne, regional productivity is higher than in outer suburban areas. Housing

affordability in our outer suburbs will also improve if population growth is dispersed to our regional cities.

Given the importance of the agglomeration discussion in population debates, the RAI worked with

Southern Cross University to develop new quantitative estimates of its contribution to growth nationally.

Agglomeration economies refer to the benefits that accrue when large numbers of worker and firms

cluster together, and this research examines the scale of these benefits with Australian data.

The results show that there are rapidly diminishing returns for agglomeration benefits as our cities get

very large. This is because the costs of being big – congestion and high cost of living – undermine the

benefits of having additional people.

The results also found that Sydney and Melbourne were already at their peak in terms of marginal

gains from increased density. In contrast, most other areas in Australia were well below their optimum

level and not receiving the full benefit of agglomeration economies.

Together, these results suggest that residents across these cities and surrounding regional areas are

likely to benefit more from a more widely distributed future population settlement pattern. Careful

strategic planning can ensure that the benefits of larger regional populations can be achieved without

loss of the affordability and amenity that current residents appreciate.

For the government, the three most important policy levers that are available to shape settlement

patterns are planning policies that govern land use, infrastructure investment, and migration.

More than any other factor, future growth in regional cities can drive widespread change in regional

areas, bringing a wider range of jobs, better services and other facilities to regional cities and

surrounding towns.

This report provides answers to the questions many have been asking in our current population debate.

However, like all good research, it also poses more questions. One of which may be, is a regional

worker earning a similar wage to their outer suburban counterpart, but paying half the mortgage,

significantly better off?

To better balance the national population, this paper, Regional Population Growth – Are We Ready?,

makes the following recommendations:

1. The establishment of a national awareness campaign to promote regional population

opportunities.

2. The development of regional settlement strategies for each major city and surrounding regions.

3. The elevation of migration strategies for regional Australia.

RECOMMENDATIONS


Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 2

Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 6

This Report ................................................................................................................................................................................... 7

Inner Cities, Outer Suburbs, and Regional Centres .............................................................................................................. 7

Scenario Analysis......................................................................................................................................... 10

Sydney ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Business as usual scenario analysis ................................................................................................................................ 12

Alternative metropolitan and regional growth scenario analysis ........................................................................... 13

Melbourne ................................................................................................................................................................................. 16



Brisbane..................................................................................................................................................................................... 20



Perth........................................................................................................................................................................................... 23



National scenario analysis summary..................................................................................................................................... 26

Drivers of the results .................................................................................................................................... 27

Outer suburbs and regional cities are very similar economically .................................................................................... 27

Income .................................................................................................................................................................................. 27

Employment......................................................................................................................................................................... 28

Productivity ......................................................................................................................................................................... 29

Agglomeration is a marginal contributor to growth ......................................................................................................... 29

Policies to facilitate a change in settlement patterns ................................................................................... 31

Strategic Planning and Land Use .......................................................................................................................................... 31

Infrastructure Investment (Transport Connectivity) ............................................................................................................ 32

Immigration Policy .................................................................................................................................................................. 33

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................... 35

Appendix A .................................................................................................................................................. 37

Appendix B .................................................................................................................................................. 39

References .................................................................................................................................................... 40

CONTENTS


The population debate we need to have in Australia is now well underway. By 2056, the Australian

Bureau of Statistics (ABS) forecasts Australia’s population will grow by between 10.8 million and 18.7

million peoplei.

Current patterns of population growth would see 77 per cent of this growth occur in Australia’s four

biggest cities – Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Brisbaneii. This course of growth has Australia heading

towards a future dominated by megacities. This megacity future reflects the global trend of increasing

urbanisation. It also reflects the structural economic shifts towards service industries (especially

knowledge-based) as providers of employment, and the tendency of these jobs to be located in

larger cities.

The Morrison Government is currently considering the role of regions in supporting national population

growth, as seen in Planning for Australia’s Future Populationiii. Upgrades to regional transport

connections are also underway, and governments are exploring more ambitious infrastructure optionsiv.

In its National Population Plan for Regional Australia,v the Regional Australia Institute (RAI) has proposed

that regions can play a much bigger role than previously considered if some important issues are addressed:

1. Rebalancing of national and state infrastructure spending to enhance liveability in regional

centres as much as dealing with congestion and housing problems in capital cities.

2. Closer analysis of the net economic gains and losses from increasing urbanisation focused on

capital cities alone.

3. Targeted programs to support economic diversification and job growth in slow-growing regions.

4. Improvements in education and training to help residents in areas with high employment needs

‘fill vacancies from within’.

5. Removing barriers to secondary migration of international migrants wanting to relocate

to regional areas, and funding to support community initiatives to make contact and assist their

settlement.

There is good international evidence to support the benefits of a ‘polycentric’ or many-centred urban

development approach. OECD research shows that nations with many cities rather than one or two

dominant cities tend to have higher levels of GDPvi. However, there has been little quantitative

assessment of the likely socio-economic trade-offs between a megacity future and a more widely

distributed settlement pattern for Australia.

INTRODUCTION


This report is the culmination of a major project within the RAI’s Intergovernmental Shared Inquiry

Program. It filsl the gap in the evidence base and facilitates a more informed debate at this critical

period for policymaking. It draws on work done by the University of South Australia and Southern Cross

University under the RAI’s Regional Research Connections program.

The first section examines alternative settlement pattern scenarios for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and

Perth by modelling the effects that a change in the spatial distribution of population growth is likely to

have on incomes, employment, house prices and commute distances.

The second section looks at the factors underlying the pattern of growth which has historically favoured

capital cities over regional cities. It also compares a selection of socio-economic indicators in both outer

suburban areas of major cities and regional centres.

The report concludes by examining the policy levers that could be used to influence settlement patterns

positively, as well as providing directions for further work by governments on this issue to ensure

Australia makes the best decisions about its future population growth.

The foundation for this report is an analysis of settlement patterns in the inner city and outer suburban

areas for Australia’s four largest cities and included regional centres.

The maps in Figure 2 show the population groups that are referred to extensively in the analysis and

discussion. Overall, more than 17.5 million Australians live within the case study regions including over 4

million in inner metropolitan local government areas (LGAs), 9.5 million in outer suburban areas and 4.5

million in the included regional areas. Appendix A provides an outline of these LGA groupings along

with their proximity to the major city, growth rates, and population projections.

The case study areas show existing variations in settlement patterns between each city, which have

important implications for the analysis. Sydney and Brisbane both have more people living in the

included regional centres than in their inner cities. Queensland is unique in the extent to which its

population is already distributed throughout South East Queensland, with more people living in the

included regional centres than in either the inner or outer suburban areas.

THIS REPORT

INNER CITIES, OUTER SUBURBS, AND REGIONAL CENTRES


Table 1: Population size – major city areas and included regional centres, 2016

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Total

Inner city 1,087,300 1,156,602 1,176,807 596,730 4,017,439

Outer suburbs 3,594,500 3,402,091 1,091,742 1,390,530 9,478,863

Included regional centres 1,499,497 709,924 1,863,324 380,490 4,453,235

Total 6,181,297 5,268,617 3,774,672 2,367,750 17,592,336

The regional centres included were selected based on their current populations and their distance from

the primary metropolitan centres of interest. These criteria were selected as a basis for determining the

suitability of different regional centres for absorbing greater population growth and easing some of

the population growth pressures off the primary centre.

Regional centres that are either too small or too far away from the primary centre were not considered

in the analysis and the University of South Australia research team acknowledges that there is a degree

of subjectivity inherent in the selection process.

For most cities, ABS and state government projections have been released out to the mid-2030s. Our

modelling extends this timescale out to 2056 by continuing the average growth rates. Extending the

timescale, inner-city areas of Melbourne, for example, are projected to increase from 1.2 million

people in 2016 to 2.6 million people in 2056. Meanwhile outer suburban areas of the city are forecast

to grow from 3.4 million to 7.6 million people – a 122 per cent increase. Despite having a network of

included regional centres, future projections only anticipate an additional 553,000 people living in

these areas (78 per cent growth).

Likewise, in Sydney, inner suburbs are projected to grow by 800,000 compared to 3.8 million in the

outer suburbs – a 106 per cent increase. Included regional centres are only projected to grow by 46

per cent or 696,000 people.

Over the same period, outer Brisbane is projected to nearly triple, growing from a population of 1.1

million to 3 million by 2056. Inner Brisbane will only experience 52 per cent growth while included

regional centres will double their population. This represents a remarkable change in direction for South

East Queensland, moving from a distributed growth model to the outer suburban population dominant

pattern of the other major cities.

In Perth, inner suburbs are projected to grow by 73 per cent compared to outer suburb growth of 127

per cent, from 1.4 million to 3.2 million people. As Perth doubles, included regional centres will

experience only limited growth of 335,000 people (an 88 per cent increase).


Figure 2: LGAs included regional centres used in the scenarios for Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney


To better understand the long term trade-offs that would be involved in pursuing a more widely

distributed settlement pattern, scenario analysis has been undertaken. This explores the likely economic

outcomes of a greater share of population growth occurring in regional centres alongside growth

anticipated in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.

For each of the four major cities, three different population growth scenarios were analysed to

examine the implications of different settlement patterns:

1. Scenario I – Base Case: This status quo scenario is based on ABS and state government

projections, where population growth is expected to be largely concentrated in existing major

metropolitan areas.

2. Scenario II – Concentrated regional growth: This scenario diverts some of the expected

growth from the major metropolitan areas towards proximate regional cities, identified within

the preceding maps as lying roughly within 200 kilometres of the centre of the metropolitan

area. The scenario consists of two sub-scenarios:

a. Moderate regional growth: 10-20 per cent of the population growth is diverted away

from the metropolitan region and towards proximate regional cities; and

b. High regional growth: 20-40 per cent of the population growth is diverted away from

the metropolitan region and towards proximate regional cities.

3. Scenario III – Dispersed regional growth: This scenario diverted some of the expected growth

from the major metropolitan areas to both proximate and more distant regional cities that are

expected to be natural places of population growth. As with Scenario II, this scenario consists of

two sub-scenarios:

a. Moderate regional growth: 10-20 per cent of the population growth is diverted away

from the metropolitan area and towards the included regional cities; and

b. High regional growth: 20-40 per cent of the population growth is diverted away from

the metropolitan area and towards the included regional cities.

The scenarios compare the base case – business as usual or status quo population growth relying on

growth in outer suburbs – with alternative population distributions that share growth across both outer

metropolitan and regional city areas.

This report presents the results from comparing the base case with the highly dispersed scenario as

these two options represent the two extreme ends of the scenarios spectrum and the results for all the

other scenarios lie between these two endpoints. The full results from all scenarios are presented in the

report from the University of South Australia team titled Future urban and regional settlement patterns:

Scenario analysis, which is available on the RAI website.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS


The scenario analysis models the quantitative associations between the different population distribution

pictures. The scenario analysis does not take into consideration how such redistributions might be

facilitated, or costs and benefits of the alternatives in terms of infrastructure. In this way, the scenarios

are econometric experiments that use historical numerical connections to test the impact of future

redistributed populations on the four variables assessed: average incomes, unemployment rates, house

sales values and commute distances.

The scenarios aimed to test the proposition that dispersed population growth would have profound

negative impacts on the selected economic indicators. The scenarios are conceptual; they model these

measures on an ‘all other things being equal’ basis, testing the quantitative relationships between

population size and these measures as determined through historical data.

The scenarios are ‘thought experiments’ rather than forecasts of how life might play out in inner and

outer urban areas and regional cities in 2056. In practice, delivering any of the scenarios will face

major challenges regarding the capacity of regional cities or outer suburbs to accommodate this growth

and managing the cost of investments in infrastructure and services required.

The scenarios have been constructed along a spectrum of population redistribution from base case to

highly dispersed, and the endpoint highly dispersed scenario may not be fully achievable in practice.

Thus, the scenario outcome comparisons contribute to our understanding of the nature and extent of the

socio-economic trade-offs attaching to different population distributions rather than mapping out a

realistic way forward.

Substantial growth in regional city populations will have both positive and negative consequences for

socio-economic wellbeing in these places. Larger regional cities will gain diversity, economies of scale,

higher average incomes and agglomeration economies. But some regional cities, for example, might

lose their ‘country town’ feel under the scale of growth modelled in the scenarios.

Jobs and services would be critical determinants of whether or not these expansions would ultimately

add to socio-economic wellbeing. Regional city liveability and sense of place and culture will be

impacted by future population growth, which is likely to put a strain on infrastructure and services unless

there are corresponding investments commensurate with the population growth.

However, the scenarios do show that in the business as usual case these growth challenges fall

overwhelmingly on outer suburbs, insulating regional city residents to some degree from the positive

and negative consequences of the projected growth in population numbers. There will always be

winners and losers from population growth on this scale. The concern at the state and national policy

scales is understanding the overall socio-economic impacts of either concentrated or dispersed growth

patterns, identifying the balance point where overall wellbeing is maximised.


In 2016, Greater Sydney had a population of 4.7 million with 1.1 million people living in inner

suburban LGAs and 3.6 million living in the outer suburban area. Included regional centres (Greater

Newcastle, Wollongong, Canberra, Port Macquarie-Hastings, Tamworth Regional, Shoalhaven, and

Wagga Wagga) are home to an additional 1.5 million people.

Included in the dispersed regional growth scenario (Scenario III) for Sydney were Greater Newcastle,

Wollongong, Shoalhaven, Canberra, Port Macquarie-Hastings, Tamworth Regional, and Wagga

Wagga. The concentrated regional growth scenario (Scenario II) was based on significant additional

growth in Newcastle, Wollongong and the Shoalhaven only.

In 2016, Inner Sydney had significantly higher levels of income, lower unemployment and shorter

commutes than other areas. However, house prices were substantially higher at $1.8 million, placing

homeownership in the inner city out of reach of most residents (Table 2).

The gaps between outer suburbs and included regional centres were less substantial for unemployment,

average commute distances were comparable, incomes were slightly higher in outer suburbs, and average

house sales values were twice as high in outer suburbs than in the included regional centres (Table 2).

Table 2: Summary of key economic indicators for Sydney and included regional centres, 2016

Population

Income ($)

Unemployment (%)

House sales value ($)

Commute distance (km)

Inner city 1,087,300 101,918 5.03 1,844,645 8.3

Outer suburbs 3,594,500 80,808 6.26 1,006,105 16.6

Included regional centres 1,499,497 71,281 6.36 500,967 16.8

Source: ABS Census

The projections by the ABS and state government estimate that the population of Greater Sydney could

more than double, from approximately 4.6 million people in 2016 to almost 9.3 million by 2056 (Table 3).

The vast majority of this population growth (~3.8 million or 83 per cent) is expected to occur in the

outer suburban areas. At the same time, included regional centres are projected to grow from 1.5

million to 2.2 million people (an increase of 46 per cent).

Table 3: Population projections for Sydney and included regional centres, 2056

2016 2056 Change %

Inner city 1,087,300 1,866,762 72

Outer suburbs 3,594,500 7,390,825 106

Included regional centres 1,499,497 2,195,698 46

Total 6,181,297 11,453,285 85

Source: ABS and NSW Government data extrapolated to 2056, UniSA modelling

SYDNEY

BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS


Under this business as usual scenario, the economic model finds that for residents of outer suburban

Sydney, population growth alone will contribute an increase of roughly 1.6 per cent to overall average

incomes (in 2016 dollars), a small increase in unemployment, 5.3 per cent increase in house values and

a 60 per cent increase in commute distances.

For the included regional cities, the business as usual scenario finds that growth alone will contribute an

increase of roughly two per cent to overall average incomes (in 2016 dollars), a marginal increase in

unemployment, two per cent increase in house values and no change in commute distances.

The business as usual projections suggest that population growth on its own will make a very modest

contribution to real growth in incomes, along with moderate contributions to rises in unemployment and

house values. The most substantial changes and risks are to the commute lengths, which are a proxy for

congestion or sprawl.

Overall, the business as usual scenario suggests that on a per capita basis existing residents and those

who will come to live in the outer suburbs in Sydney are on track to experience the largest proportion

of the downsides of population growth with limited or no benefits in terms of income and employment.

To examine the long term economic benefits or costs of alternative patterns of future population growth

in Sydney and New South Wales (NSW), the scenario analysis included a range of regional population

outcomes. The population scenarios cover two alternatives:

1. Growth concentrated in Sydney, Newcastle, Shoalhaven and Wollongong; and

2. Growth dispersed across the included regional centres of Greater Newcastle, Wollongong,

Shoalhaven, Canberra, Port Macquarie-Hastings, Tamworth Regional, and Wagga Wagga.

This analysis estimates the likely outcomes from more widely distributed population growth. For each

alternative, both moderate and high levels of dispersal were modelled.

The population projections given in Table 4 comprise the business as usual scenario for the region. As

per this scenario, Greater Sydney and included regional cities are projected to grow from 6.2 million

people in 2016 to 11.4 million in 2056. The majority of this growth is expected to be concentrated

within the Greater Sydney metropolitan region.

The alternative population growth scenarios divert up to 2.3 million potential future residents away

from Greater Sydney and towards different regional centres. Scenario II diverts some of the projected

growth in Greater Sydney towards Wollongong, Shoalhaven and Greater Newcastle. Scenario III

diverts some of the projected growth in Greater Sydney more widely to include Wollongong,

Shoalhaven, Greater Newcastle, Canberra, Port Macquarie, Tamworth and Wagga Wagga. Under

the high and dispersed regional growth case, we assume that Wollongong grows by a compound

annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5 per cent; Shoalhaven, Port Macquarie, Tamworth and Wagga

Wagga grow by a CAGR of 4.0 per cent; and Greater Newcastle and Canberra grow by a CAGR of

3.0 per cent. These growth rates are consistent with observed growth rates across fast-growing

metropolitan regions nationally and internationally.

ALTERNATIVE METROPOLITAN AND REGIONAL GROWTH SCENARIO ANALYSIS


The modelled changes are substantial for NSW regions ranging from a 100-300 per cent increase in

population compared to 2016. Under the scenarios, Newcastle, Wollongong and Shoalhaven become

more significant regional cities, with Newcastle reaching towards two million people and Wollongong

one million.

Under the highly dispersed growth scenario Canberra tops one million people while Port Macquarie,

Wagga Wagga and Tamworth grow to become cities of several hundred thousand people. This level

of increased regional growth would result in a significant reduction in outer suburban population growth

pressure with outer Sydney’s total end population reduced by between 900,000 and 2.8 million

people.

Table 4: Sydney population distribution alternative scenarios

Area 2016

Population scenarios

Scenario I: business as usual

Scenario II: Concentrated regional growth

Scenario III: Dispersed regional growth

Moderate High Moderate High

Inner Sydney 1,087,300 1,866,762 1,866,762 1,698,916 1,792,490 1,380,092

Outer Sydney 3,594,500 7,390,825 6,478,580 5,616,440 5,925,785 4,562,441

Wollongong 211,750 284,562 568,562 838,373 568,562 838,373

Shoalhaven 99,600 121,863 324,899 478,182 324,899 478,182

Greater Newcastle 575,800 846,180 1,271,389 1,878,281 1,271,389 1,878,281

Canberra 405,447 652,053 652,053 652,053 895,243 1,322,583

Port Macquarie 79,650 113,830 113,830 113,830 259,821 382,401

Tamworth 61,400 83,308 83,308 83,308 200,289 294,783

Wagga Wagga 65,850 93,901 93,901 93,901 214,805 316,147

Source: UniSA population scenarios

Modelling results against these scenarios (available in detail in Future urban and regional settlement

patterns: Scenario analysis, which is available on the RAI website) provide an indication of how a more

widely distributed pattern of future population growth would impact on the economic outcomes for

Sydney and the regional centres included in the analysis.1

1 The modelling shows the contribution from population growth alone to changes in each economic outcomes measure. The figures do not represent predictions of the value of each measure (incomes, unemployment rate or house value) in 2056. The modelling shows that the biggest differences in these outcomes are between the base case and the highly dispersed regional growth scenario. These two scenarios represent the two ends of the spectrum, and all other scenarios fall between these extremes. Appendix B summarises the modelling outcomes of these two end point scenarios for each of the four cities.


The modelling suggests that the key measures of housing prices and commute distances would be better

for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario. For regional city residents there

would be no real change in incomes, while house prices would be slightly higher (all other things being

equal), retaining the regional city advantage in the house price to income ratio.

For Outer Sydney, in the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, when compared to 2016,

redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to average real (inflation adjusted) annual

incomes of around 0.5 per cent ($400), an unemployment rate 0.05 per centage points higher, an

average house cost 1.4 per cent ($14,000) more, and an average commute distance that is 15.1 per

cent (2.5 kilometres) longer.

Looking at the included regional cities, redistribution of population growth contributes an increase to

average real (inflation adjusted) annual incomes of around 1.8 per cent ($1,300), contributes 0.3 per

centage points to unemployment, an increase in average house costs of 5.5 per cent ($28,000), and an

increase in average commute distance of 6.5 per cent (1.1 kilometres).

However, these scenarios do not vary the demographic composition of the population but only the total

number of people living in any particular urban area. Population changes of these magnitudes will

change the demographic and employment mixes in the regional cities, changing key measures like

proportion of population under 65, proportion with Bachelors Degrees and proportion working in high

skilled service sector jobs. These demographic changes will have a generally positive impact on the

economic measures (income, unemployment, house prices), which has not been accounted for in the

modelling undertaken here.


Greater Melbourne had a population of 4.6 million with 1.2 million people living in inner suburban

LGAs and 3.4 million living in the outer suburban area, based on the 2016 Census. Included regional

centres were home to an additional 710,000 people.

In the Melbourne modelling,Greater Bendigo, Greater Geelong, Greater Shepparton, Ballarat,

Latrobe, Warrnambool, and Albury-Wodonga are included in the dispersed regional growth scenario.

The concentrated regional growth scenarios only included Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Latrobe.

As with the scenarios in the other three states, these regional centres were selected based on their

current populations and their distance from Melbourne. There is some subjectivity in the selection

process followed, and other Victorian regional cities such as Wangaratta, Horsham and Mildura were

not included as places of alternative population growth in this modelling.

Inner Melbourne had higher levels of income, lower unemployment and shorter commutes than outer

Melbourne and the included regional centres. However, average house prices were substantially

higher in inner Melbourne at $1.2 million, especially when compared to house prices in included

regional centres.

The gap in house prices between outer suburban and regional centres was still substantial, with

average house sales values in outer Melbourne more than double that of included regional centres.

Unemployment rates were the same, and although income was higher in outer Melbourne compared

with the regional centres, commute distances were greater.

Table 5: Summary of key economic indicators in Melbourne and included regional centres, 2016

Area

Population Income

($) Unemployment

(%) House sales

value ($) Commute

distance (km)

Inner Melbourne 1,156,602 85,016 6.69 1,154,287 9.5

Outer Melbourne 3,402,091 75,067 6.79 776,276 17.2

Included regional centres 709,924 59,396 6.79 344,365 15.9

Source: ABS Census

The projections based on ABS and state government projections indicate that the population of

Melbourne could more than double, growing by an estimated 5.6 million people, from 4.6 million in

2016 to 10.2 million people by 2056 (Table 6).

The vast majority of this growth (~4.2 million or 74 per cent) is expected to occur in Melbourne’s outer

suburban areas. Regional cities and included regional centres are expected to grow substantially from

nearly 710,000 to 1.3 million (an increase of 78 per cent).

MELBOURNE



Table 6: Population projections for Melbourne and included regional centres, 2056

Area 2016 2056 % Change

Inner Melbourne 1,156,602 2,611,527 126

Outer Melbourne 3,402,091 7,560,314 122

Included Regional Areas 709,924 1,263,396 78

Total 5,268,617 11,435,237 117

Source: ABS and Victorian Government data extrapolated to 2056, UniSA modelling

Under the business as usual scenario, the economic model found that for residents of outer suburban

Melbourne, population growth alone will contribute an increase of roughly 1.9 per cent to overall

average incomes (in 2016 dollars), a small increase in unemployment, 7.5 per cent increase in house

values and a 63 per cent increase in commute distances.

For the included regional cities, the business as usual scenario finds that growth alone will contribute an

increase of roughly 2.2 perc ent to overall average incomes (in 2016 dollars), a marginal increase in

unemployment, a 4.3 perc ent increase in house values and no change in commute distances.

As with Sydney, the business as usual projections for Melbourne suggest that population growth on its

own will make a very modest contribution to real growth in incomes, along with small contributions to

rises in unemployment and house values. The most substantial changes and risks are again to commute

distances.

Overall, as with Sydney, the downsides of population growth will fall most heavily on people who come

to live in outer Melbourne, with limited or no benefits in terms of income and employment.


in Melbourne and regional Victoria, the scenario analysis explored a range of regional population


1. Growth concentrated in Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Latrobe.

2. Growth dispersed across the included regional cities of Greater Bendigo, Greater Geelong,

Greater Shepparton, Ballarat, Latrobe, Warrnambool, and Albury-Wodonga

The base case is population growth for Greater Melbourne and included regional cities from 5.3 million

to 11.4 million. The base case is that the majority of this growth would occur in outer suburbs.


from Greater Melbourne and towards different regional centres. Under the high regional growth case,

the University of South Australia modelling assumed that each of the regional centres grows by a CAGR

of 4.0 per cent.



Under these scenarios, Table 7 shows that end population growth in the outer suburbs of Melbourne is

between 512,000 and 1.6 million fewer people than the baseline case, and included regional centres

become much more important population centres with Geelong exceeding 1 million people and

Ballarat and Bendigo reaching around 500,000 people each in the high growth scenarios. Collectively,

the included regional centres will grow from 710,000 people in 2016 to up to 3.4 million people in the

dispersed high growth scenario.

Table 7: Melbourne population distribution alternative scenarios

Area

2016


Scenario I: business as

usual

Scenario II: concentrated regional growth

Scenario III: dispersed regional growth


Inner Melbourne 1,156,602 2,611,527 2,396,256 2,192,947 2,313,725 2,036,528

Outer Melbourne 3,402,091 7,560,314 7,048,475 6,450,451 6,805,714 5,990,351

Geelong 233,349 440,491 761,192 1,120,312 761,192 1,120,312

Ballarat 103,249 215,528 336,804 495,703 336,804 495,703

Bendigo 110,446 223,805 360,278 530,252 360,278 530,252

Latrobe City 73,646 91,577 240,237 353,577 240,237 353,577

Shepparton 63,828 91,884 91,884 91,884 208,209 306,438

Warrnambool 33,948 47,854 47,854 47,854 110,739 162,983

Albury-Wodonga 91,458 152,256 152,256 152,256 298,339 439,092


Modelling results against these scenarios provides an indication of how a more widely distributed

pattern of future population growth would impact on the outcomes for each measure (incomes,

unemployment rate, house value, commute distance).2

As with the model results for Sydney, the biggest differences in these outcomes are between the

business as usual scenario and the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, and all other outcomes

fall between these extremes.

2 The modelling shows the contribution from population growth alone to changes in each economic outcomes measure. The figures do not represent predictions of the value of each measure (incomes, unemployment rate or house value) in 2056.


The modelling suggests that the key measures of housing prices and commute distances would not be as

high for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario. For regional city residents

there would be higher real average incomes and also average house prices (all other things being


For Outer Melbourne, in the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, when compared to 2016,



average house cost 4.8 per cent ($38,000) more, and an average commute distance 39 per cent (6.7

kilometres) longer.



centage points to unemployment, an increase in average house costs of ten per cent ($34,000), and no

real change in commute distance.

However, as in the other cities, these scenarios do not vary the demographic composition of the

population, only the total number of people living in any particular urban area.3

3 Population changes of these magnitudes will change the demographic and employment mixes in the regional cities, changing key measures like proportion of population under 65, proportion with Bachelors Degrees and proportion working in high skilled service sector jobs. These demographic changes will have a generally positive impact on the economic measures (income, unemployment, house prices) which has not been accounted for in the modelling undertaken here.


In 2016, Greater Brisbane had a population of around 2.3 million, with 1.2 million people living in the

inner suburban LGAs and a further 1.1 million people in outer suburban areas. Included regional

centres were home to an additional 1.9 million people. As these relative population figures attest, a

more widely distributed population pattern has already been in place in Queensland for several

decades, with substantial growth in the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast making these areas large

regional cities in their own right that are deeply interconnected to the Brisbane economy.

For Brisbane, the dispersed regional growth scenario included the regional centres of Gold Coast-

Tweed Heads, Sunshine Coast, Mackay, Townsville, Cairns, Ballina-Lismore, Toowoomba, and Fraser

Coast. The concentrated regional growth scenario does not include Mackay, Cairns and Townsville.

Therefore, these scenarios represent an expansion of the South East Queensland region (Gold Coast

and Sunshine Coast) to include a wider group of proximate and significant regional cities.

As with Sydney and Melbourne, the inner suburbs of Brisbane had higher levels of income, lower

unemployment and shorter commutes than other areas of interest. However, the trends in relation to

incomes, unemployment and house values differ from Sydney and Melbourne. The included regional

centre incomes were more comparable to outer suburban areas; they had slightly lower unemployment,

and higher house prices.

Table 8: Summary of key economic indicators in Brisbane and included regional centres, 2016

Area

Population Income

($) Unemployment

(%) House sales

value ($) Commute

distance (km)

Inner Brisbane 1,176,807 83,720 6.80 638,500 11.5

Outer Brisbane 1,091,742 69,799 8.02 415,142 19.4

Included regional centres 1,863,324 68,912 7.64 468,171 16.9

Source: ABS Census

The projections from ABS and Queensland Government data see Greater Brisbane expected to grow

by up to 2.5 million, from 2.3 million to 4.8 million people by 2056 (Table 9) and most (76 per cent) of

this growth is expected to take place in outer suburban areas. Included regional centres are expected

to grow from 1.9 million people to 3.8 million by 2056 (an increase of 104 per cent).

Table 9: Population projections for Brisbane and included regional centres, 2056

Area 2016 2056 Change %

Inner Brisbane 1,176,807 1,785,289 52

Outer Brisbane 1,091,742 2,981,271 173

Included regional centres 1,863,324 3,807,153 104

Total 3,774,672 8,573,713 127

Source: ABS and Queensland Government data extrapolated to 2056, UniSA modelling

BRISBANE



In the business as usual scenario analysis, population growth contributes a 2.5 per cent increase to Outer

Brisbane real average incomes (in 2016 dollars), a 9.2 per cent increase in house prices, a 0.3 per

centage point increase in unemployment and a 23 per cent increase in average commuting distance.

For the included regional centres, the business as usual scenario is for population growth to contribute a

2.6 per cent increase in real average incomes, a 5.7 per cent increase in house prices, a 0.15 per

centage point increase in unemployment and a 4.1 per cent increase in average commuting distance.

The scenario analysis explored a range of possible regional population outcomes to examine the long

term economic benefits or costs (via measures of incomes, unemployment rate, house value, commute

distance) of alternative settlement patterns of population growth in Brisbane and Queensland. The

population scenarios cover two alternatives:

1. Growth concentrated in Brisbane, Gold Coast-Tweed Heads, Sunshine Coast, Ballina-Lismore,

Toowoomba and Fraser Coast.

2. Growth dispersed across the included regional cities of Gold Coast-Tweed Heads, Sunshine

Coast, Mackay, Townsville, Cairns, Ballina-Lismore, Toowoomba, and Fraser Coast.

The base case projects the population of Greater Brisbane and included regional cities to grow from

3.8 million to 8.6 million, with the majority of this growth expected to be in outer suburbs.


from Greater Brisbane and towards the included regional centres. Under the high regional growth

case, we assume the included regional centres grow by a CAGR of 3.0 per cent.

The modelling shows the contribution from population growth alone to changes in each economic

outcomes measure. The figures do not represent predictions of the value of each measure (incomes,

unemployment rate or house value) in 2056.

As with the model results for Sydney and Melbourne, the biggest differences in these outcomes are

between the base case and the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, and all other outcomes fall

between these extremes.



Table 10: Brisbane population distribution alternative scenarios

Metropolitan region 2016

2056 Population projections





Greater Brisbane 2,268,549 4,766,560 3,941,355 3,211,892 3,612,071 2,616,690

Gold Coast-Tweed Head 657,101 1,456,443 1,764,359 2,143,489 1,764,359 2,143,489

Sunshine Coast 293,691 690,925 788,578 958,030 788,578 958,030

Toowoomba 165,168 255,817 443,486 538,783 443,486 538,783

Ballina-Lismore 88,300 108,938 237,091 288,038 237,091 288,038

Fraser Coast 103,733 174,851 278,530 338,382 278,530 338,382

Mackay 126,370 234,087 234,087 234,087 339,313 412,225

Townsville 199,358 420,801 420,801 420,801 535,290 650,315

Cairns 163,469 315,897 315,897 315,897 438,924 533,241

The modelling suggests that the key measures of housing prices and commute distances would be lower

for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario. For regional city residents, there

would be an increase in real average incomes and also average house prices (all other things being


For Outer Brisbane, in the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, when compared to 2016,


incomes of around 0.4 per cent ($250), an unemployment rate 0.05 per centage points higher, an average

house cost 1.1 per cent ($3,500) more, and a negligible change in commute distance.



centage points to unemployment, an increase in average house costs of 6.7 per cent ($29,000), and an

increase in average commute distance of 5.9 per cent (one kilometre).



Due to the already polycentric nature of South East Queensland, both the cost and the benefits of more

distributed regional growth are not as large as in the case of Sydney and Melbourne. Overall, these

results suggest there are potential benefits to housing affordability from further developing the

distributed growth patterns in South East Queensland by reducing the rates of projected outer

suburban growth and connecting in additional surrounding regional centres.

4 Population changes of these magnitudes will change the demographic and employment mixes in the regional cities, changing key measures like proportion of population under 65, proportion with Bachelors Degrees and proportion working in high skilled service sector jobs. These demographic changes will have a generally positive impact on the economic measures (income, unemployment, house prices) which has not been accounted for in the modelling undertaken here.


Greater Perth had a population of around two million, with 597,000 people living in inner suburban

LGAs and 1.4 million living in the outer suburban areas in 2016. In the Perth modelling, Greater

Bunbury, Peel Region, Northam-Toodyay-York, Greater Geraldton, Kalgoorlie-Boulder, Albany and

Busselton comprise the included regional cities for the dispersed regional growth scenarios.

Table 11 provides the population size and key economic impact indicators for Perth in 2016. Inner

Perth had higher levels of income, lower unemployment and shorter commutes than other areas of

interest. Inner Perth’s house values were also substantially higher ($755,000) compared to the outer

suburbs ($525,000). Unemployment was higher in outer Perth (8.28 per cent) and commutes nearly

twice the distance (18.8 kilometres compared to 9.9 kilometres) of those in the inner city area.

There are significant gaps between included regional centres and outer suburban Perth. Both income

($68,723) and house values ($378,319) were lower in the included regional centres compared to outer

suburban Perth. Commutes were slightly longer and unemployment slightly lower in included regional

centres.

Table 11: Summary of key economic indicators in Perth and included regional centres, 2016

Area

Population Income

($) Unemployment

(%) House sales

value ($) Commute

distance (km)

Inner Perth 596,730 82,611 7.37 755,042 9.9

Outer Perth 1,390,530 76,727 8.28 524,895 17.0

Included regional centres 380,490 68,723 8.15 378,319 18.8

Source: ABS Census

Under the business as usual population scenario, Perth is expected to grow from approximately two

million to four million people by 2056. As with the other major cities, the majority of this growth (80 per

cent) is forecast for outer suburban areas. At the same time, included regional centres are expected to

grow from about 405,000 to 889,000 people by 2056 (an increase of 119 per cent).

Table 12: Population projections for Perth

Area 2016 2056 Change %

Inner Perth 596,730 1,033,681 73

Outer Perth 1,390,530 3,160,094 127

Included regional centres 405,330 889,179 119

Total 2,367,750 4,909,398 107

Source: ABS and Western Australian Government data extrapolated to 2056, UniSA modelling

In the business as usual scenario, population growth contributes a 1.9 per cent increase to Outer

Suburban Perth real average incomes, a 6.4 per cent increase in house prices, a 0.25 per centage

point increase in unemployment and a 24.7 per cent increase in average commuting distance.

PERTH



For the included regional cities, the baseline scenario is for population growth to contribute a negligible

increase (0.2 per cent) in real average incomes, a 4.6 per cent increase in house prices, a 0.55 per

centage point increase in unemployment and a 3.7 per cent increase in average commuting distance.


in Perth and Western Australia, the scenario analysis explored a range of regional population


1. Growth concentrated in Perth and Greater Bunbury, Peel Region, Northam-Toodyay-York

and Busselton

2. Growth dispersed across the included regional cities Greater Bunbury, Peel Region, Northam-

Toodyay-York, Greater Geraldton, Kalgoorlie-Boulder, Albany and Busselton.

The base case projects the population of Greater Perth and included regional cities to grow from

2.4 million to 4.9 million, with the majority of this growth projected for outer suburbs.


from Greater Perth and towards different regional centres. Under the high regional growth case, we

assume that the Peel Region, Busselton, Albany, Greater Geraldton and Kalgoorlie-Boulder grow by a

CAGR of 4.0 per cent, Northam-Toodyay-York grows by a high CAGR of 5.0 per cent, and Greater

Bunbury grows by a CAGR of 3.0 per cent

Under these scenarios (Table 13) outer suburban growth is reduced by between 358,000 to 933,000

people. Under all scenarios the Peel Region continues to grow and in the concentrated regional centre

scenarios much more significant regional cities also emerge in the South West and Western Wheatbelt. The

highly dispersed scenario diverts some of the projected growth in Greater Perth towards the Peel Region,

Northam-Toodyay-York, Greater Bunbury, Busselton, Albany, Greater Geraldton and Kalgoorlie-Boulder.

Table 13: population distribution alternative scenarios

Area 2016






Inner Perth 596,730 1,033,681 1,033,681 1,033,681 1,033,681 955,603

Outer Perth 1,390,530 3,160,094 2,802,213 2,532,038 2,593,397 2,226,795

Peel Region 141,640 454,476 560,790 680,017 560,790 680,017

Northam-Toodyay-York 20,360 32,477 80,611 143,334 80,611 143,334

Greater Bunbury 94,430 172,696 253,551 308,034 253,551 308,034

Busselton 35,510 68,463 115,835 170,484 115,835 170,484

Albany 37,310 51,667 51,667 51,667 121,707 179,126

Greater Geraldton 41,430 64,831 64,831 64,831 135,146 198,906

Kalgoorlie-Boulder 34,650 44,569 44,569 44,569 113,030 166,355




Modelling results against these scenarios provides an indication of how a more widely distributed

pattern of future population growth would impact on the outcomes for each measure (incomes,

unemployment rate, house value, commute distance).5

The modelling suggests that the increases in key measures of housing prices and commute distances

would be lower for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario. For regional city

residents there would be an increase in real average incomes and also average house prices (all other

things being equal), retaining the regional city advantage in the house price to income ratio.

For Outer Perth, in the highly dispersed regional growth scenario, when compared to 2016,



average house cost 3.3 per cent ($17,000) more, and an average commute distance 11.2 per cent (1.9

kilometres) longer.



centage points to unemployment, an increase in average house costs of 7.6 per cent ($29,000), and a

very small decrease in average commute distance.



5 The modelling shows the contribution from population growth alone to changes in each economic outcomes measure. The figures do not represent predictions of the value of each measure (incomes, unemployment rate or house value) in 2056. As with the model results for the other cities, the biggest differences in these outcomes are between the base case and the highly dispersed regional growth scenario. These two scenarios represent the two ends of the spectrum, and all other scenarios fall between these extremes. 6 Population changes of these magnitudes will change the demographic and employment mixes in the regional cities, changing key measures like proportion of population under 65, proportion with Bachelors Degrees and proportion working in high skilled service sector jobs. These demographic changes will have a generally positive impact on the economic measures (income, unemployment, house prices) which has not been accounted for in the modelling undertaken here.


Across the four case studies, the overall outcomes from a more widely distributed regional growth

pattern were consistent. Overall, compared to 2016, for outer urban areas, dispersed growth brings

smaller increases in both incomes and house prices, resulting in improved housing affordability.

Increases in commute distances were also smaller. For the included regional cities, dispersed population

brings both higher growth in incomes and house prices, with affordability still improving. Commute

distances also increase slightly. Summary data is presented in Appendix B.

For Sydney and Melbourne, the results suggest a more aggressive approach to population growth

distribution is worthy of exploration, as this maximises the improvement of the downsides of growth

that are inevitable for outer suburban areas of these cities. If this more substantial geographic

population shift is not feasible, more moderate growth outcomes also provide benefits, but at a lower

scale.

Queensland already has a more distributed population pattern across the whole state, and southeast

Queensland in particular is also more dispersed than Sydney and Melbourne. For outer urban areas,

the modelled redistributed population brings a slight decrease in housing affordability and commute

distances. For the included regional cities, the dispersed scenario brings slight improvements in

affordability.

In the Perth case, dispersed population growth has benefits to housing affordability in outer urban

places, and slightly better commute distances. For the included regional cities, while dispersed

population growth would push up average house prices, the modelling suggests that incomes would rise

more and affordability would still improve.

Together, these results suggest that residents across these cities and surrounding regional areas are likely

to be better off if a more widely distributed future population settlement pattern can be achieved.

NATIONAL SCENARIO ANALYSIS SUMMARY


The outcomes of this modelling may be surprising to many who follow the mainstream conversation

about Australia and its economy. We are regularly told that our major cities are the key to our

economy and must be prioritised over lagging regions if we are to maintain our levels of economic

growth and living standards.

However, this simplistic story breaks down rapidly when you consider how population growth affects

the economy and understand the existing patterns of economic activity in a little more detail.

To help explain the outcomes from the scenario analysis, it’s important to understand why a more

widely distributed population generally drives improvements in key economic indicators.

Cties and regions are typically referred to as two groups in our national population debate and

distinctions are drawn between the two. However, our sprawling cities are not homogenous and

regional areas are also very diverse.

In examining alternative settlement patterns, two subgroups in this discussion are crucial – the outer

suburbs where most future population growth will be concentrated and the nearby regional cities which

can be better connected to major cities to foster their growth and development, and ease some

population pressurevii.

If we look closely at these two sub-groups across the key economic indicators of incomes, employment

and productivity, a more nuanced picture emerges with inner cities clearly outperforming on incomes

and productivity while outer suburbs and regions have comparable levels of performance.

Looking at average incomes, the difference between outer suburb areas and regional centres is

marginal. While outer suburbs earn a higher average income, the difference is less than ten per cent

(Table 14). For example, full-time workers from Sydney’s outer suburbs earn an average of $79,128

per annum, while in regional centres close to Sydney they earn $74,437 per annum. These results show

that the most significant gap in incomes is not between capitals and regions, but inner-city areas and

everywhere else.

DRIVERS OF THE RESULTS

OUTER SUBURBS AND REGIONAL CITIES ARE VERY SIMILAR ECONOMICALLY

INCOME


Table 14: Income comparisons for inner and outer suburbs and included regional centres

Average Full Time Income and Growth Rates

Capital City Outer Suburbs Included regional centres Inner Suburbs

Sydney $79,128 2.50% $74,437 2.70% $101,774 3.00%

Melbourne $75,660 2.90% $69,612 2.60% $92,133 2.80%

Brisbane $72,183 2.70% $72,022 2.50% $91,109 2.80%

Perth $83,314 2.30% $80,848 2.50% $94,970 2.80%

Source: ABS 2016, RAI Calculations

Recent work on the relationships between inner and outer Melbourne published by the University of

Melbourne Sustainable Society Instituteviii has found that outer urban growth is making Melbourne more

economically polarised, with residents of the fastest growing outer suburbs going backwards in terms of

their share of income from economic activity.

The research notes:

“The Melbourne region has had too high a population growth rate over the last 25 years,

given the level of investment that was committed to support this growth, while regional Victoria

has had too low a population growth rate to maximise overall gross state product per capita.”

Employment data also shows that a worker in the outer suburbs has just as much likelihood of being

employed as in the regional centres (Table 15). For Sydney, employment rates in the outer suburbs

were identical to regional centres, while for Perth regional centres were slightly higher. Both Brisbane

and Melbourne outer suburbs had comparable employment rates to their nearby regional centres.

Table 15: Employment Comparisons for inner and outer suburbs and included regional centres

Employment Rates Outer Suburbs Included regional centres Inner Suburbs

Brisbane 92.2% 92.0% 93.7%

Melbourne 93.2% 93.0% 93.5%

Perth 91.6% 92.7% 92.4%

Sydney 93.7% 93.7% 95.0%

Source: ABS 2016, RAI Calculations

EMPLOYMENT


A similar pattern emerges in relation to productivity (Figure 2). While the inner cities are clearly

leaders in urban labour productivity, regional centres are just as productive as the outer suburbs when

it comes to gross value added per worker. In the cases of Brisbane and Melbourne, regional

productivity is higher than in outer suburban areas.

Figure 3: Productivity comparisons for inner and outer suburbs and regional centres Source: ABS 2016, RAI Calculations

Agglomeration economies refer to the benefits that can accrue when there are large numbers of

workers and firms clustered together. Agglomeration economies assume that productivity rises with

density due to savings in transportation costs and lower production costs from increased proximity of

workers to businessesix. While these agglomeration economies are believed to be significant in

Australia, there has been very little empirical testing of the scale of these economies.

To address this, the RAI worked with Southern Cross University to assess the evidence for agglomeration

in Australia and to develop new quantitative estimates of its contribution to growth nationally and in

our cities and regionsx. The full report Settlement Patterns: Econometric Analysis, is available on the RAI

website.

Following an approach pioneered in Europe which is based on workforce density, this research

identifies a positive contribution from agglomeration economies to economic growth. However, the

practical effect of agglomeration economies is very small with other factors such as industry

specialisation, workforce capability, human capital and connectedness being far more important to the

growth of regions and cities.

Moreover, the results show that there are rapidly diminishing marginal returns for agglomeration

benefits as our cities get very large. This occurs because the costs of being big – congestion and high

costs of living – undermine the benefits of having additional people nearby. The overall effect shows

that there will be a far larger increase in the growth rate of GDP per capita for a region with lower

$143,8

94

$143,2

40

$173,8

26

$172,8

19

$107,0

95

$106,6

24

$144,5

00

$133,7

44

$116,1

13

$114,0

68

$125,8

77

$125,3

90

BRISBANE MELBOURNE PERTH SYDNEY

Gross value added per worker

Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs Regional Centres

PRODUCTIVITY

AGGLOMERATION IS A MARGINAL CONTRIBUTOR TO GROWTH


workforce density than one with higher work force density, all else held constant (Figure 4). This

indicates that there will be bigger net economic gains for Australia as smaller cities grow and capture

further agglomeration economies, than from increasing growth in our largest cities.

The scale of these relative gains are shown in Figure 4, which plots the growth in regional GDP against

workforce density, or working population per square kilometre. The analysis shows that while the model

clearly displays that agglomeration effects are positive, diminishing marginal returns ‘set in’ at a

workforce density of around 500 people per square kilometer and rapidly tail off above 2,000. By

way of comparison, the Sydney working population densities range from around 4,600 people per

square kilometre in Sydney City to around 250 in outer suburban Penrith. Melbourne’s range from

3,000 in Port Philip to around 175 in outer suburban Hume.

Figure 4: Growth in regional GDP and workforce density – agglomeration effects (UniSA)

This provides evidence that agglomeration economies are not confined to our largest cities. In fact,

there is a larger marginal gain for areas with lower population densities. This is because

agglomeration diseconomies (such as pollution and congestion) create a drag on the agglomeration

benefits as cities get very large and dense.

Supporting this result is separate research conducted in 2011 that found Melbourne and Sydney were

already at their peak in terms of marginal gains from increased densityxi. In contrast, this research

found that most other areas in Australia were well below their optimum level and not receiving the full

benefit of agglomeration economies.

This evidence substantially undermines what has been a powerful assumption in our cities debate, and

instead suggests that agglomeration on its own is of limited significance to growth performance. It also

suggests that the best areas to foster it are in fact smaller cities yet to experience the benefits of

density but can still increase density while avoiding the costs of being really big.

This research suggests that chasing agglomeration economies by making our big cities bigger and

denser is not the most effective pathway to future economic success.

Gro

wth

in

regio

nal G

DP

Working population per square kilometre


Population is not a ‘static backdrop against which social, economic, environmental and political forces

are played out’, but instead a function of each one of these variablesxii. The choices we make about

where and how we live are subject to a range of factors. The supply of land and costs of housing,

infrastructure, the availability of employment and a range of cultural and social factors all feed into

individual preferences about where to settle.

For government, three important policy levers are available to shape and influence settlement patterns:

1. planning policies that govern land use and the built environment;

2. infrastructure investments which enable places to be created and connected; and

3. migration policies that match new migrants to the different range of opportunities in Australia’s

cities and regions.

These levers are reinforced by complementary economic development policies which shape the

liveability of places, increase levels of education and workforce capability, and facilitate local job

growth and industry expansion. To influence settlement patterns, governments also need to work

together. Federal, state and local governments have a mix of exclusive and shared responsibilities

across each of these policy areas and differing capacity to provide the funds needed to drive change.

The most direct mechanism for shaping settlement patterns is policies and legislation for strategic

planning and land use.

The two settlement growth pathways are dictated by land use policy including:

1. Greenfield development – enabling the release and development of undeveloped land; and

2. Brownfield or greyfield development – providing land for redevelopment in established

areasxiii.

Long-term planning processes for Australia’s largest cities have followed a similar pattern which is

being repeated as part of the current debate on future population. Long-term population and

employment projections are used to determine corresponding policy interventions, including location-

specific targets for new housing and upgraded infrastructurexiv.

The consequences of urban planning decisions are substantial. In each of the regions explored in this

report, the various planning instruments create an existing patchwork of various growth targets,

priorities and timelines for areas of land which are guiding us towards the status quo outcomes

modelled in this study.xv Planning and land use policy is the primary tool for facilitating alternative

settlement patterns. The foundation of any decentralisation policy will be a decision to modify these

current settings.

POLICIES TO FACILITATE A CHANGE IN SETTLEMENT PATTERNS

STRATEGIC PLANNING AND LAND USE


One pathway for changing Australia’s settlement patterns towards a more geographically distributed

future is further freeing up greenfield and brownfield development in regional centres, and availability

of employment lands in regional cities, alongside more effective constraints on urban fringe sprawl. A

more comprehensive and coordinated planning approach and supporting policies is the way to lead in

creating positive change.

Unlike urban densification strategies, which mostly seek to displace traditional housing supply with

denser forms of settlement, constraining urban fringe development in the major cities and increasing

supply of land in regional centres is better placed to maintain a mix of housing for people who are not

looking to live in densely populated outer or inner suburban neighbourhoods.

Critical to strategic and land use planning are the employment lands and land use policies that help

enable job provision. Population growth without effective job creation leads to dormitory suburbs and

creates commuting challenges. Employment opportunities and job creation are a vital a driver of

population attraction and retention, and significant job creation initiatives would be needed to support

population growth under the dispersed scenarios.

The crucial partner to planning is infrastructure investment which plays a key role in influencing the

location of population growth.

As with planning, infrastructure is proven in Australia, and internationally, to be able to facilitate

change if done well. For example, improving transport infrastructure and increasing access to flexible

work arrangements were identified as two important factors in increasing exurban housing choices in

Australia through the 1990s.xvi Well designed investments that improve connectivity, such as those

connecting Melbourne with Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, can have significant impacts on changing

population distributions.

Overseas experience has also explored the extent to which infrastructure, particularly high speed rail,

facilitates greater migration to regional areas by improving the accessibility to major employment

centres and business districts. Overall research concludes that high speed rail can catalyse change in

settlement decision by reducing the time it takes to connect large cities to other surrounding regional

areas. This can lead to:

attracting business investment;

decreasing costs and increasing the efficiencies of existing businesses;

increasing property values;

reduced commuting time to nearby capital cities;

attracting more students to regional tertiary institutions;

significantly growing tourism;

improving access to health, educational and employment services; and

enhancing the broader competitiveness, liveability and investment appeal of newly

connected areas.xvii

INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT (TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY)


As is the case with planning, high speed rail can facilitate change, but on its own it is insufficient to

address spatial imbalance of metropolitan and regional areas. Increased connectivity (both physical

and digital) facilitates further metropolitan growth as well as regional growth and can have negative

effects on regional economies if it is not well planned and supported with other policies.

International evidence demonstrates that supporting investments are needed to ensure the benefits

don’t accrue disproportionately to the larger centre as a result of economies of scale and

agglomeration effects. xviii

Two examples that emphasise this are the United Kingdom (UK) and France.

In the case of high speed rail in the UK, research suggests that increased connectivity between London

and the northern parts of the country could deepen regional inequality rather than reduce it, with

benefits (in terms of population and employment growth) likely to disproportionality flow to London.xix

In France, more effective associated investments such as encouraging growth centres around transport

hubs have facilitated a much better balance of benefits. This emphasised that both ‘transport

accessibility (hubs and transport networks) and non-transport initiatives (education, housing and physical

transformation) prove to be essential’.xx

Overall, infrastructure investment decisions including the development of high speed rail, will be

fundamental to shifting our settlement patterns towards a better outcome for outer cities and regions.

Infrastructure investments are needed beyond connecting transport, of course, with utilities an essential

foundation. Employment lands and business investments are also critical in ensuring that jobs are

located close to the expanded populations. Jobs are one important factor in population location, but

equally important are other factors of liveability including health services, education services and social

services. The scale of investment in this associated soft and hard infrastructure, needed to support the

significant redistribution of populations in the scenarios, is substantially more than has been seen in the

recent past.

Immigration policy is also crucial for shaping settlement patterns, as it includes the decisions on how

many people come to Australia from overseas to settle, as well as the specific opportunities they seek

to take up within the nation.

Since the mid-1990s, Australian immigration policy has sought to influence where people settle. A suite

of immigration schemes have tried to leverage immigration with the explicit aim of spurring growth in

regional areas and meeting labour and skill needs. This has had significant impact on where newly

arrived immigrants settled, although there is considerable variation between states and territories.xxi

However, despite these gains this effort is yet to achieve the shift required to meet many regional

workforce needs.

IMMIGRATION POLICY


The skilled migration program is ‘focused on selecting highly skilled people to deliver a more

responsive and targeted migration program, particularly in the areas of the Australian economy still

experiencing skills shortages’.xxii A proportion of humanitarian migrants are also settled in regional

cities and there are groups settled in metropolitan areas that have a desire to settle in rural areas.

The RAI has documented substantial workforce shortages that could be better matched to migration

policiesxxiii as well as locally-led migration strategies that can help to match new migrants to regional

areas and assist them to settle in the community.xxiv

Employment and housing are two critical underpinnings for improving migration and settlement

outcomes, so there are strong connections between the desire for increased international migration to

regional centres, and the needs they have for associated socio-economic infrastructure. Resident

attraction is also potentially influenced by promotion of liveability initiatives such as marketing

campaigns and associated communications designed to appeal to particular cohorts, like early career

workers and regional returners, as well as international migrants. All of these elements are documented

in the RAI’s regional migration toolkit – Steps to Settlement Success, which is available on the RAI’s

website.

Investment in an effective network of locally-led migration strategies, designated area migration

agreements, and policies to assist humanitarian migrants in the city to move to rural areas can

effectively rebalance migration and contribute to more optimal settlement patterns in the future. Over

time, this shift will have an increasing impact as other migrants settle in those communities.

Again, migration policy change must work alongside the planning and infrastructure levers. By shifting

future migration from cities to regions, the economic and social costs of substantial cuts to migration

levels can be avoided.


This research has not sought to provide a template for re-engineering Australia’s future settlement

patterns or define population growth targets.

Instead it seeks, through better evidence, to ensure that distributing growth to regional areas achieves

its proper place in the policy debate and that government agencies invest the time and effort required

to make good decisions on these opportunities.

The results challenge us to recast the discussion. The outer suburbs and nearby regions are not

dormitory suburbs for our inner cities but growing economies in their own right. Despite the primacy of

inner cities in many public debates, it is clear that most of our population growth and most of our

economic growth will occur in outer suburbs and nearby regions. How we shape and balance growth in

both these areas will determine much of our future success.

The modelling also raises important discussions about our future liveability. It is unlikely that the already

significant pressure points of high house price costs and lengthening commutes in our major cities can be

managed without substantial changes to our current settlement patterns.

If we want a less congested future alongside substantial population growth, then limiting further sprawl

in our outer cities and freeing up land supply in regional cities to build a connected network of medium

sized cities is the best pathway for Australia to pursue. Corresponding proactive investment in human

capital in regions can assure that we maintain growth in incomes, creating a win-win scenario for

Australia.

This can be achieved in parallel with sustaining the growth of our high productivity inner cities. It will

also help to sustain strong levels of migration to Australia with broader public support.

Achieving the optimal balance of population growth in outer suburbs and in regional areas in the future

will require several policy areas to work in concert.

It is time for a proper exploration of the opportunities for better connecting nearby regions to our major

cities and facilitating substantial population growth, so that regional Australia can play a prominent role

in our National Population Plan. This should be an urgent priority for the Commonwealth, and state and

territory governments, and their specialist planning and infrastructure agencies.

CONCLUSION


The development of a distributed settlement strategy for each major city and surrounding regional

areas encompassing these elements is recommended:

1. The establishment of a national awareness campaign to promote regional population

opportunities.

The narrative shift for regional Australia has long been an issue, and collective action to

increase awareness and education regarding the opportunities available in the regions is

necessary. A joint national campaign utilising key stakeholders from government, industry and

the community sector would ensure the greatest opportunity for societal shift and better

outcomes for regional Australia.

2. The development of regional settlement strategies for each major city and surrounding regions.

State Governments to model new high growth scenarios for regional cities to find the best

development pathway, with communities to be engaged on the trade-offs and benefits of

faster growth;

Development and analysis of the range of infrastructure investment options available to better

connect each regional city to its nearby metropolitan centre in the coming decades;

A substantial study into location decision making by individuals, families and firms to

understand what drives people to live in different areas, and the groups within the population

who have ambitions or are open to living in small cities connected to larger metro areas; and

Detailed examination of planning, taxation, and economic development policy options that can

be put in place by governments alongside infrastructure investment to moderate growth in

outer suburban areas while enabling increased regional growth.

3. The elevation of migration strategies for regional Australia.

Education and awareness programs for regional communities to help them understand their

workforce challenges, job vacancies and the benefits of locally-led migration strategies;

Establishment and support for a national network that connects all stakeholders of regional

migration, from migrants through to regional employers, to help simplify the process of

resettlement.


Sydney

Table A.1 Projected population growth for included regional centres and for Greater Sydney based on NSW and ACT government projections

Metropolitan region LGA(s) Distance from Sydney

Population CAGR

Population projections

2016 2056

Greater Sydney 34 LGAs as defined by NSW government

- 1.6% 4,681,800 9,257,587

Wollongong Wollongong 82 km 0.8% 211,750 284,562

Shoalhaven Shoalhaven 160 km 0.5% 99,600 121,863

Greater Newcastle Newcastle; Lake Macquarie; Cessnock; Maitland; and Port Stephens

162 km 1.0% 575,800 846,180

Canberra ACT 280 km 1.3% 405,447 652,053

Port Macquarie Port Macquarie-Hastings

390 km 0.9% 79,650 113,830

Tamworth Tamworth Regional 404 km 0.8% 61,400 83,308

Wagga Wagga Wagga Wagga 461 km 0.9% 65,850 93,901

Melbourne

Table A.2 Projected population growth for included regional centres and for Greater Melbourne based on Victoria and NSW government projections

Metropolitan region

LGA(s) Distance from Melbourne

Population CAGR


2016 2056

Greater Melbourne 31 LGAs as defined by Victoria government

- 2.0% 4,558,692 10,171,840

Geelong Greater Geelong (C) 75 km 1.6% 233,349 440,491

Ballarat Ballarat (C) 116 km 1.9% 103,249 215,528

Bendigo Greater Bendigo (C) 150 km 1.8% 110,446 223,805

Latrobe City Latrobe (C) 157 km 0.5% 73,646 91,577

Shepparton-Mooroopna

Greater Shepparton (C)

191 km 0.9% 63,828 91,884

Warrnambool Warrnambool (C) 257 km 0.9% 33,948 47,854

Albury-Wodonga Albury; Wodonga 316 km 1.3% 91,458 152,256

APPENDIX A


Brisbane

Table A.3 Projected population growth for included regional centres and for Greater Brisbane based on Queensland and NSW government projections

Metropolitan region

LGA(s) Distance from Brisbane

Population CAGR


2016 2056

Greater Brisbane Brisbane; Ipswich; Logan, Moreton Bay; Redland; Scenic Rim; Somerset

- 1.9% 2,334,683 4,915,953

Gold Coast - Tweed Heads

Gold Coast; Tweed Shire 80 km 2.0% 657,101 1,456,443

Sunshine Coast Sunshine Coast 105 km 2.2% 293,691 690,925

Toowoomba Toowoomba 127 km 1.1% 165,168 255,817

Lismore - Ballina Lismore; Ballina 186 km 0.5% 88,300 108,938

Fraser Coast Fraser Coast 250 km 1.3% 103,733 174,851

Rockhampton Rockhampton 615 km 1.0% 85,701 129,890

Mackay Mackay 970 km 1.6% 126,370 234,087

Townsville Townsville 1335 km 1.9% 199,358 420,801

Cairns Cairns 1800 km 1.7% 163,469 315,897

Perth

Table A.4 Projected population growth for included regional centres and for Greater Perth based on WA government projections

Metropolitan region

LGA(s) Distance from Perth centre

Population CAGR


2016 2056

Greater Perth 29 of the 30 LGAs included by the Planning and Development Act 2005 (excluding Serpentine-Jarrahdale)

- 1.8% 1,962,420 4,020,220

Peel Region Mandurah; Boddington; Murray; Serpentine-Jarrahdale; Waroona

72 km 3.0% 141,640 454,476

Northam-Toodyay-York

Northam; Toodyay; York 100 km 1.2% 20,360 32,477

Greater Bunbury Bunbury; Capel; Dardanup; Harvey

175 km 1.5% 94,430 172,696

Busselton Busselton 220 km 2.2% 35,510 68,463

Albany Albany 418 km 1.1% 37,310 51,667

Greater Geraldton Greater Geraldton 424 km 1.5% 41,430 64,831

Kalgoorlie-Boulder Kalgoorlie-Boulder 595 km 0.9% 34,650 44,569


Summary of modelling results Business as usual growth Highly dispersed growth

2016 Values % change from 2016 Values

% change from 2016

Outer Greater Sydney

Incomes ($) 80808 82065 1.6% 81224 0.5% House prices ($) 1006105 1059292 5.3% 1020674 1.4% Commute distance (km) 16.6 26.5 59.6% 19.1 15.1% Included Regional Cities

Incomes ($) 71281 72719 2.0% 72557 1.8% House prices ($) 500967 512064 2.2% 528758 5.5% Commute distance (km) 16.8 16.8 0.0% 17.9 6.5%

Outer Greater Melbourne


Incomes ($) 59396 60694 2.2% 62131 4.6% House prices ($) 344365 359171 4.3% 378723 10.0% Commute distance (km) 15.9 15.9 0.0% 16 0.6%

Outer Greater Brisbane


Incomes ($) 68912 70720 2.6% 71075 3.1% House prices ($) 468171 494716 5.7% 499614 6.7% Commute distance (km) 16.9 17.6 4.1% 17.9 5.9%

Outer Greater Perth

Incomes ($) 76727 78158 1.9% 77548 1.1% House prices ($) 524895 558632 6.4% 542368 3.3% Commute distance (km) 17 21.2 24.7% 18.9 11.2% Included Regional Cities

Incomes ($) 68723 68855 0.2% 71433 3.9% House prices ($) 378319 395850 4.6% 406986 7.6% Commute distance (km) 18.8 19.5 3.7% 18.1 -3.7%

APPENDIX B


i Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2018, 3222.0 – Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) –

2066, ABS. Available at: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3222.0 ii ibid iii Conmmonwealth Government of Australia 2019, Planning for Australia’s Future Population,

Commonwealth of Australia. Available at: https://www.pmc.gov.au/resource-centre/domestic-policy/planning-australias-future-population

iv Federal and state government plans:

Department of Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning 2017, ShapingSEQ. South East

Queensland Regional Plan 2017, Queensland Government. Available at:

https://dsdmipprd.blob.core.windows.net/general/shapingseq.pdf ;

Infrastructure Australia 2018, Future Cities, Planning for our growing population. February 2018,

Infrastructure Australia. Available at: https://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-

publications/publications/files/future-cities/Future-Cities-Paper-web.pdf ;

Infrastructure New South Wales (NSW) 2018, Building Momentum. State Infrastructure Strategy 2018.

February 2018, Infrastructure NSW. Available at: https://insw-sis.visualise.today/documents/

INSW_2018SIS_BuildingMomentum.pdf ;

Infrastructure Victoria 2016, Victoria’s 30-year Infrastructure Strategy, Infrastructure Victoria, Available

at: http://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/project/30-year-strategy-2016/

Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) 2014, State Planning Strategy 2050, WAPC.

Available at at: https://www.dplh.wa.gov.au/getmedia/d698cbff-65c6-4afb-b4b7-

9e12e6a3b5dd/FUT-SPS-State_Planning_Strategy_2050. v Regional Australia Institute (RAI) 2019, National Population Plan for Regional Australia, RAI, Canberra.

Available at: http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/home/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2019_RAI_NationalPopulationPlanForRegionalAustralia_Final.pdf

vi Regional Australia Institute (RAI) 2016, Deal or No Deal? Bringing Small Cities into the National Cities

Agenda, RAI: Canberra. Available at: http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/home/wp-

content/uploads/2016/04/Deal-or-No-Deal-Bringing-Small-Cities-into-the-National-Cities-

Agenda_April-2016_FINAL.pdf

viii Brain, P, Stanley, J and Stanley, J 2019, Melbourne: How big, how fast and at what cost?, MSSI

Research Paper, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, The University of Melbourne. ix Glaeser, EL and Gottlieb, JD 2011, The Wealth of Cities: Agglomeration Economies and Spatial

Equilibrium in the United States, NBER Working Paper No. 14806. x Strickland, C.; Gazos, T.; Kortt, M. 2018. Settlement Patterns: Econometric Analysis. Canberra: Regional

Australia Institute. xi Jamaldeen, M 2015, Agglomeration economies, diseconomies, and city size: the case of Australian

cities, Macquarie University. Aavailable at:

https://www.researchonline.mq.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/mq:44742 xii Hugo, G 2002, ‘Changing Patterns of Population Distribution in Australia’, in Journal of Population

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2016, Commonwealth of Australia. Available at: https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/built-

environment/topic/2016/current-urban-planning-and-management#built-environment-5901 xiv Infrastructure Australia 2018, Future Cities, Planning for our growing population. February 2018,

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publications/publications/files/future-cities/Future-Cities-Paper-web.pdf

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