R. D. Shelton

Relations Between National Research Investment Input and Publication Output: Application to an American ParadoxR. D. Shelton

Sponsored by a sabbatical from Loyola and NSF Grant ENG-0423742

Whats the Problem?European Paradox is the perceived failure of Europe to cash in on its leadership of science publishingI use "American Paradox" to mean the long term decline in U.S. share of science publishing, despite world-leading investments in R&D, particularly as that decline has become worseWhy is todays subjectThe methods are also useful for other countries; e.g. the EU is developing the same syndrome

The American Paradox: Declining SCI Paper Shares Despite Huge R&D Investments (GERD*)

*Gross domestic expenditures on R&D (OECD Constant $ PPP), paper share from NSI CD 2004.

Paper Share %NSF analyzed paradox for 6 years.

GERD $Billions320

160

Chart1

18.187439.74

20.29147539.57

22.60077539.03

25.71862539.3

28.804739.05

30.1404538.88

31.66662538.78

33.55052538.61

35.556438.5

38.09717538.55

40.3469538.83

41.45867537.86

41.53662538.16

42.40312537.07

46.0192537.01

49.44802535.82

53.177235.28

57.02712534.73

61.3689534.18

66.94187533.94

69.4550533.98

69.0650533.55

73.1093533.43

US GERD

US Paper Share

Sheet1

From ISI 2006

1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198132.321396064319611USAall fields198139.55170826431961

























GERD

INDICATOR: 1. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D -- GERD (million current PPP $)

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

EU25............................138545.1144346.5151113.6158447.8169207.7182728.5194898.6205171.8211252.8....

EU1556911.5..66437.172177.380180.585237.591770.498690106948.8115239.5121281.3123770.4125963.8128859.5133650.4139159.1145364.8152508.9163028.1176039.5187664.6197664.2203519.6....


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

United States72749.681165.990403.1102874.5115218.8120561.8126666.5134202.1142225.6152388.7161387.8165834.7166146.5169612.5184077197792.1212708.8228108.5245475.8267767.5277820.2276260.2292437.4312535.4..

Paper Share

from 2006 CD

EU2532.3232.3932.6232.4232.6632.9133.1132.7633.2133.433.7134.3735.0836.7437.0137.8838.3839.3939.3439.4339.4438.9138.5637.9737.8

US39.5539.3938.8639.1438.938.7338.6538.4838.3338.4138.6937.7438.0236.9636.8935.7135.1934.6134.0633.8133.8733.4433.3433.2132.7

Paper Share

from 2004 CD

EU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22

US39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43

GERDEU1556.911566.437172.177380.180585.237591.770498.69106.9488115.2395121.2813123.7704125.9638128.8595133.6504139.1591145.3648152.5089163.0281176.0395187.6646197.6642203.5196....

US72.749681.165990.4031102.8745115.2188120.5618126.6665134.2021142.2256152.3887161.3878165.8347166.1465169.6125184.077197.7921212.7088228.1085245.4758267.7675277.8202276.2602292.4374312.5354..

GERD/4EU1514.22787516.60927518.04432520.04512521.30937522.942624.672526.737228.80987530.32032530.942631.4909532.21487533.412634.78977536.341238.12722540.75702544.00987546.9161549.4160550.8799

US18.187420.29147522.60077525.71862528.804730.1404531.66662533.55052535.556438.09717540.3469541.45867541.53662542.40312546.0192549.44802553.177257.02712561.3689566.94187569.4550569.0650573.1093578.13385

Paper ShareEU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22

2004 CDUS39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43

1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198130.58133006434969























24USAall fields198139.74172836434969

25USAall fields198239.57176452445949

26USAall fields198339.03177469454746

27USAall fields198439.3178937455295

28USAall fields198539.05190460487682

29USAall fields198638.88196657505851

30USAall fields198738.78195707504640

31USAall fields198838.61202466524364

32USAall fields198938.5210036545609

33USAall fields199038.55216194560819

34USAall fields199138.83222306572530

35USAall fields199237.86230936609955

36USAall fields199338.16230155603190

37USAall fields199437.07236625638384

38USAall fields199537.01247280668182

39USAall fields199635.82242828677996

40USAall fields199735.28240989683063

41USAall fields199834.73246160708862

42USAall fields199934.18247213723210

43USAall fields200033.94244754721087

44USAall fields200133.98251380739891

45USAall fields200233.55246885735834

46USAall fields200333.43267162799147

Sheet1

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

EU15 GERD

US GERD

EU15 Paper Share

US Paper Share

Sheet2

Sheet3

EU Recently Developed the Same SyndromePaper Share %GERD $Billions320160

Chart1

14.22787518.187430.5839.74

198220.29147530.8839.57

16.60927522.60077530.9439.03

18.04432525.71862530.7839.3

20.04512528.804731.2239.05

21.30937530.1404531.4938.88

22.942631.66662531.7438.78

24.672533.55052531.3938.61

26.737235.556431.8238.5

28.80987538.09717532.0938.55

30.32032540.3469532.4138.83

30.942641.45867533.1337.86

31.4909541.53662533.7138.16

32.21487542.40312534.7837.07

33.412646.0192535.0437.01

34.78977549.44802535.8535.82

36.341253.177236.3835.28

38.12722557.02712537.3634.73

40.75702561.3689537.2334.18

44.00987566.94187537.2233.94

46.9161569.4550537.1933.98

49.4160569.0650536.5933.55

50.879973.1093536.2233.43

EU15 GERD

US GERD

EU15 Paper Share

US Paper Share

Sheet1

From ISI 2006


























GERD


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

EU25............................138545.1144346.5151113.6158447.8169207.7182728.5194898.6205171.8211252.8....

EU1556911.5..66437.172177.380180.585237.591770.498690106948.8115239.5121281.3123770.4125963.8128859.5133650.4139159.1145364.8152508.9163028.1176039.5187664.6197664.2203519.6....


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

United States72749.681165.990403.1102874.5115218.8120561.8126666.5134202.1142225.6152388.7161387.8165834.7166146.5169612.5184077197792.1212708.8228108.5245475.8267767.5277820.2276260.2292437.4312535.4..

Paper Share

from 2006 CD

EU2532.3232.3932.6232.4232.6632.9133.1132.7633.2133.433.7134.3735.0836.7437.0137.8838.3839.3939.3439.4339.4438.9138.5637.9737.8

US39.5539.3938.8639.1438.938.7338.6538.4838.3338.4138.6937.7438.0236.9636.8935.7135.1934.6134.0633.8133.8733.4433.3433.2132.7

Paper Share

from 2004 CD

EU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22

US39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43

GERDEU1556.911566.437172.177380.180585.237591.770498.69106.9488115.2395121.2813123.7704125.9638128.8595133.6504139.1591145.3648152.5089163.0281176.0395187.6646197.6642203.5196....

US72.749681.165990.4031102.8745115.2188120.5618126.6665134.2021142.2256152.3887161.3878165.8347166.1465169.6125184.077197.7921212.7088228.1085245.4758267.7675277.8202276.2602292.4374312.5354..

GERD/4EU1514.22787516.60927518.04432520.04512521.30937522.942624.672526.737228.80987530.32032530.942631.4909532.21487533.412634.78977536.341238.12722540.75702544.00987546.9161549.4160550.8799

US18.187420.29147522.60077525.71862528.804730.1404531.66662533.55052535.556438.09717540.3469541.45867541.53662542.40312546.0192549.44802553.177257.02712561.3689566.94187569.4550569.0650573.1093578.13385

Paper ShareEU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22

2004 CDUS39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43
























24USAall fields198139.74172836434969

25USAall fields198239.57176452445949

26USAall fields198339.03177469454746

27USAall fields198439.3178937455295

28USAall fields198539.05190460487682

29USAall fields198638.88196657505851

30USAall fields198738.78195707504640

31USAall fields198838.61202466524364

32USAall fields198938.5210036545609

33USAall fields199038.55216194560819

34USAall fields199138.83222306572530

35USAall fields199237.86230936609955

36USAall fields199338.16230155603190

37USAall fields199437.07236625638384

38USAall fields199537.01247280668182

39USAall fields199635.82242828677996

40USAall fields199735.28240989683063

41USAall fields199834.73246160708862

42USAall fields199934.18247213723210

43USAall fields200033.94244754721087

44USAall fields200133.98251380739891

45USAall fields200233.55246885735834

46USAall fields200333.43267162799147

Sheet1

EU15 GERD

US GERD

EU15 Paper Share

US Paper Share

Sheet2

Sheet3

OutlineIs it just that the SCI is a rubber ruler? (Hint: no)Which inputs are most important: a regression approach (Hint: look for the money, but not just any money.)A theory that can account for U.S. (and EU) decline, and forecast the future (Hint: it's simple, m = kw)

1. Is it Just That the SCI is a Rubber Ruler?

Hypothesis: In response to criticism that it is biased toward English language and the U.S., the Science Citation Index may have changed to be less favorable to the U.S. This could account for some of the rapid decline in U.S. publication since 1995.Method: For a sample of 8 fields, partition their journals into 2 sets: New journals added to the SCI after 1994, and Old added before.Then measure U.S. share of each journal to see if difference between Old and New is significant

Example Analysis of U.S. Share in SCI

Chart2

51.02682313551.0268231350

47.70020157647.7002015760

47.730739893247.73073989320

49.812734082449.81273408240

53.165457390853.357193987122.7272727273

44.966540587746.811126479212.2615803815

47.490266231750.180464696610.0470957614

49.50233597452.641291810826.3605442177

US Share

Share Old Journals

Share New Journals

Percent

US Share of Space Science Papers

Sheet1

DateAnalyst_________Field_________

Number of Papers in Old Journals vs. New Journals

World TotalUS Total

1983198619891992199519982001200419831986198919921995199820012004

New Journals

Grp No

100004436763711760000104564310

2

3

4

New Totals00004436763711760000104564310

Old Journals

Grp No

14772545752445607698565078866867024352603250327933727304644494564

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Old Totals4772545752445607698565078866867024352603250327933727304644494564

Grand Totals4772545752445607702968749503984624352603250327933737309145134874

Share51.02682313547.70020157647.730739893249.812734082453.165457390844.966540587747.490266231749.502335974

Share Old51.02682313547.70020157647.730739893249.812734082453.357193987146.811126479250.180464696652.6412918108

Share New000022.727272727312.261580381510.047095761426.3605442177

Sheet1

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

US Share

Share Old Journals

Share New Journals

Percent

US Share of Space Science Papers

Sheet2

DateAnalyst_________Field_________

Number of Papers in Old Journals vs. New Journals

World TotalUS Total

1983198619891992199519982000200120022003200419831986198919921995199820002001200220032004

New Journals

Grp No

100004436754763768610521176000010457264131251310

2

3

4

New Totals00004436754763768610521176000010457264131251310

Old Journals

Grp No

14772545752445607698565078123886683559057867024352603250327933727304642024449416647034564

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Old Totals4772545752445607698565078123886683559057867024352603250327933727304642024449416647034564

Grand Totals47725457524456077029687486709503904110109984624352603250327933737309142744513429749544874

Share51.02682313547.70020157647.730739893249.812734082453.165457390844.966540587749.296424452147.490266231747.527928326549.005836383449.502335974

Share Old51.02682313547.70020157647.730739893249.812734082453.357193987146.811126479251.729656530850.180464696649.862357869551.926686540852.6412918108

Share New000022.727272727312.261580381513.162705667310.047095761419.096209912523.859315589426.3605442177

Sheet2

000

000

000

000

000

Overall Share

Old Journal Share

New Journal Share

Expanded Scale for Recent Years Space Sci

Sheet3

Sample of 8 Fields of ScienceWorking paper at http://itri2.org/Bpaper/current.doc

Chart1

49.50233597452.641291810826.3605442177

44.323867239844.568399398742.3324742268

30.299832391831.248511786626.8945868946

25.885712090825.590106963927.5752364574

33.713692946135.174471713121.055408971

17.788606148117.837198121217.5769292734

35.290264472334.256329113938.0089153046

28.421245086428.05522413529.9275192892

28.876410004929.192896739627.2729977389

All Journals

Old Journals

New Journals

Percent

US Share of Journals

Sheet1

Table 4. US Share in Percent

19891995200420042004

JournalsAllAllAllOldNew

Field

Space Science47.753.449.552.626.4

Immunology42.743.544.344.642.3

Math41.136.630.331.226.9

Engineering35.632.225.925.627.6

MicroBiology35.734.133.735.221.1

Materials Science27.026.117.817.817.6

Computer Science41.937.535.334.338.0

Pharmacology34.233.528.428.129.9

Totals36.334.128.929.227.3

Sheet1

All Journals

Old Journals

New Journals

Percent

US Share of Journals

Sheet2

Sheet3

Conclusions from Bias StudyIn some fields (space science, math, and microbiology) New journals were much less favorable to the U.S. But, in some fields the opposite was true In aggregate over 8 fields the change in bias was too small to account for the sharp changes in national shares Most share differences between Old and New journals are not statistically significantTherefore, hypothesis is not proven, and is unlikely over 24 fields in the National Science Indicator CD Thus the shifts in national shares are real, and are probably not an artifact of the SCI database

2. Since Total GERD Is Not Increasing U.S. Papers, Which Inputs are Most Important?

Multiple Linear Regression Can Help Identify WhichNational Publication Systems (The Black Box)Resources In

Papers Out

A Simple Regression Scattergram for 1999This example has only one IV, of course.

Regression Line: Papers99 = 4282 + 0.950 GERD99 Slope is about 1 paper / $1 million, and R = 0.983.U.S. and Japan are far off the graph to the upper right

Multiple Linear Regressions: Drilling Down with 2 Independent Variables (IV) per LevelDV is papers out. Significance level is 0.05, but IV1 is always very significant (Sig. 0.000). R > 0.9 always.Level1. IV1 = GERD (Total national R&D) IV2 = Number of Researchers (not significant)

Level2. IV1 = Government Investment part of GERD IV2 = Private Sector Investment (not significant)

Level3. IV1 = Civil Part of Government Investment IV2 = Government Defense Investment (less significant and a smaller coefficient)

Details in table in Appendix

Regression Findings: In Producing PapersResearch investments are much more important than the number of researchers. Government investments are much more important than those from industry. Government investments in non-defense sectors are somewhat more important than their investment in defense. For 2003 the ratio of their IV coefficients has increased to 2. Not surprising to bibliometricians, but regression quantifies these statements. Causality cant be proven, but strong and weak associations can be found.

Is This Why the EU Passed the U.S. in Science Publishing in 1995? (Greater Government Non-Defense R&D)May account for EU gaining on U.S. before 1995, but we still need to find why loss of U.S. share accelerated then, here shown as leveling of US Papers curve

Chart1

13300624487.69417283615315.69

13769026892.641617645214048.735

14068528597.946917746913840.176

14015830289.03417893714944.332

15227332419.095819046016213.275

15927933747.9819665716347.443

16019535857.384519570717919.666

16457237882.692120246619032.132

17360940146.670421003621429.675

17999043273.081121619423854.094

18553447538.288622230626556.491

20208949230.643323093628316.772

20331849408.57923015528652.44

22202149216.48723662530543.957

23411051333.32624728031575.069

24304252864.585224282831279.197

24852053997.516424098932029.0251

26481654937.130424616033768.0333

26926256760.0324721336334.1628

26841863070.358424475440468.45

27514962850.778225138045295.0245

26921560561.428424688549364.1593

28947162033.65326716247580.3965

EU15 Papers

EU15 Govt Civil R&D

US Papers

US Govt Civil R&D

Papers and $Million

US and EU Papers and Government Civil R&D

Sheet1

INDICATOR: 60. Defence Budget R&D as a percentage of Total GBAORD

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

EU152321.922.122.823.322.822.322.122.422.720.619.118.617.916.416.315.614.814.513.615.416.416.5....

INDICATOR: 60. Defence Budget R&D as a percentage of Total GBAORD

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

United States54.661.164.366.267.569.368.667.865.562.659.758.65955.354.154.755.354.153.251.650.552.159.755.856.6

INDICATOR: 59. Total Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for R&D -- GBAORD (million current PPP $)

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

EU1531802.234433.636711.139234.542267.44371546148.548629.951735.455980.759871.960853.760698.55994761403.563159.663978.164480.26638672998.174291.772441.974291.8....

INDICATOR: 59. Total Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for R&D -- GBAORD (million current PPP $)

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

United States3373536115387684421449887532495706959106621156378165897683986988468331687916904971653.373568.777637.183612.591505.1103056.7118065.5126451.5131906.1

EU15 Govt

Civil2448826893285983028932419337483585737883401474327347538492314940949216513335286553998549375676063070628516056162034

Defense731575418113894598489967102911074711589127081233411623112901073110070102959981954396269928114411188012258

US Govt

Civil1531614049138401494416213163471792019032214302385426556283172865230544315753127932029337683633440468452954936447580

Defense1841922066249282927033674369023914940074406853992739341400814123237787372163777039624398014130343144462105369370485

PapersEU15 GovtPapersUS Govt24USAall fields1981172836

YearEU-15CivilDefenseUSCivilDefense25USAall fields1982176452

1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198113300624487.6947314.50617283615315.6918419.3126USAall fields1983177469





















22EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200226921560561.428411880.471624688549364.159353692.5407

23EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200328947162033.65312258.14726716247580.396570485.1035

Sheet1

EU Civil

EU Defense

US Civil

US Defense

$Millions Current PPP

Govt R&D Investment

Sheet2

EU15 Papers

EU15 Govt Civil R&D

US Papers

US Govt Civil R&D

Papers and $Million

US and EU Papers and Government Civil R&D

Sheet3

Conclusions from RegressionMoney is the key input variable, but some types of investments are more effectiveU.S. Government investments are not as efficient at producing papers as in the EU: too much defense R&D, and not enough NSFThese inefficiencies may account for the EU passing the U.S. in papers, but are not large enough to account for the recent sharp decline in U.S. paper share

3. A Theory That Can Account for U.S. Decline, and Predict its (Bleak) Future

Since we cant blame the recent sharp decline in U.S. share on a rubber ruler from SCI or inefficient allocations by the U.S., we have to cast a wider net overseas, in fact.We will look at four regions: US, EU-15, "Asian Tigers" (China, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Singapore), and rest of the world (ROW). Usually the world will be the OECD countries, including affiliates.

More Detailed Model of Publication System (Inside the Black Box)$ InputsUSEUATROWPapersPublishedNational Research Systems -- Fairly IndependentHighly Interdependent Paper SelectionJournalEditorsg1p1G (total)P (total)wi = gi/GGERD sharemi = pi/PPaper share

Search for a Model of SystemSince SCI does not increase P much in a year, total papers is almost a zero-sum game, and is one for share mi (on a fractional count basis)Thus competition with other nations strongly influences U.S. successWe know that the critical input is money, but we need a U.S. series that declines to get a strong positive R with declining U.S. paper share

US GERD has risen, but others have risen faster. Is the shape of this curve familiar? An Input Series that Involves Both the Investments of the U.S. and Others.

Chart1

44.521076953144.5210769531

44.743254013444.7432540134

45.47825603245.1054316583

46.355476232846.3554762328

46.324016837545.9747642567

45.998058137545.9980581375

45.293817634244.9994056341

44.690019590344.6900195903

43.788162057143.5282344044

43.231074763840.1164380751

42.282841991238.443247162

42.271505539239.6033295772

41.826759246338.8862442025

41.511854730638.714176427

41.727306545638.5726492626

42.120358101138.6820418416

42.596494312338.6000753243

43.276343037639.2961878794

43.679818682139.168788139

43.865164168138.7156111971

43.078828368537.4451483745

42.421352956136.2845514236

42.062953954235.3930296937

US Share of OECD

US Share of OECD and Affliates

Percent

wus = U.S. Share of GERD

Sheet1

INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

United States123126.6129683.4138972152357.1165548169413.7172997.2177320.3181071.1186728.5191111.3191823.4188041.9187950.9199886.4210716.4222916.4235058.4249343.1265194268294.9266177.7268439....


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Total OECD276558289839305579328671.2357369.7368306.2381944.4396778.3413516.1431931.2451983.1453788.9449573.2452764.4479030.2500272.1523321543156.8570842.8604566.3622799.9627461.6638183.9....


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Argentina..............................1704.21851.71884.92007.31927.61782.91454.91670.1....

China....................14841.517081.61867519233.519348.421190.226457.82934236955.74830055560.668827.380606.6....

Israel....................2063.42259.72434.92594.52853.531823552.83890.64588.76047.26389.86443.16375.66540.3..

Romania....................1036.91021.61117.5984.11089.2998.2770620.6503.3470.9531.5538.5599.3....

Russian Federation..................33535.124190.9102109217.987527850.88690.39406.18443.29799.711066.913038.514481.716028.2....

Singapore..........................705.88041044.21221.31480.31654.51801.51969.22077.32084.4....

Slovenia........................388449.1421.5371.4383.2413.8449473.1525.2532.5......

South Africa....2525.8..2714.8..2498.9..2469.3..3010..2162.7......2405.5......3249.3........

Chinese Taipei............................681072878133.18938.89785.21032610654.211767.212903.5....

Total Affliates002525.802714.802498.902469.333535.145142.730572.9339963271939177.444467.554181.555014.265743.480413.293701.2106122.5120267.76540.3

Total OECD276558289839308104.8328671.2360084.5368306.2384443.3396778.3415985.4465466.3497125.8484361.8483569.2485483.4518207.6544739.6577502.5598171636586.2684979.5716501.1733584.1758451.6

plus affliates

US GERD Share

Share of OECD44.521076953144.743254013445.47825603246.355476232846.324016837545.998058137545.293817634244.690019590343.788162057143.231074763842.282841991242.271505539241.826759246341.511854730641.727306545642.120358101142.596494312343.276343037643.679818682143.865164168143.078828368542.421352956142.0629539542

Share of Both44.521076953144.743254013445.105431658346.355476232845.974764256745.998058137544.999405634144.690019590343.528234404440.116438075138.44324716239.603329577238.886244202538.71417642738.572649262638.682041841638.600075324339.296187879439.16878813938.715611197137.445148374536.284551423635.3930296937

Sheet1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

US Share of OECD


Percent

US Share of OECD GERD

Sheet2

Sheet3

US Paper Share Depends More on Its Share of GERD Than Its Total GERD

Chart4

44.521076953139.74123.1266

44.743254013439.57129.6834

45.105431658339.03138.972

46.355476232839.3152.3571

45.974764256739.05165.548

45.998058137538.88169.4137

44.999405634138.78172.9972

44.690019590338.61177.3203

43.528234404438.5181.0711

40.116438075138.55186.7285

38.44324716238.83191.1113

39.603329577237.86191.8234

38.886244202538.16188.0419

38.71417642737.07187.9509

38.572649262637.01199.8864

38.682041841635.82210.7164

38.600075324335.28222.9164

39.296187879434.73235.0584

39.16878813934.18249.3431

38.715611197133.94265.194

37.445148374533.98268.2949

36.284551423633.55266.1777

35.393029693733.43268.439

GERD Share

Paper Share

GERD

Shares in Percent, GERD in $Billions

US Paper Share Compared to GERD and GERD Share

GERD


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

EU25............................151280.4153902.4158384.8163923.6173594.7182792.6189729.3194297.2196270.3....

1982EU1596945.296945.2102770.2107671116000.3120574.7126332.8131438.9137304.3142278.1145086.5144695.8143842143989.5146068.4148497.9152429.3157820.4167287.1176103.1182730.9187311.4189105.2....

interpolated1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

United States123126.6129683.4138972152357.1165548169413.7172997.2177320.3181071.1186728.5191111.3191823.4188041.9187950.9199886.4210716.4222916.4235058.4249343.1265194268294.9266177.7268439....


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Total OECD276558289839305579328671.2357369.7368306.2381944.4396778.3413516.1431931.2451983.1453788.9449573.2452764.4479030.2500272.1523321543156.8570842.8604566.3622799.9627461.6638183.9....


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Argentina..............................1704.21851.71884.92007.31927.61782.91454.91670.1....

China....................14841.517081.61867519233.519348.421190.226457.82934236955.74830055560.668827.380606.6....

Israel....................2063.42259.72434.92594.52853.531823552.83890.64588.76047.26389.86443.16375.66540.3..

Romania....................1036.91021.61117.5984.11089.2998.2770620.6503.3470.9531.5538.5599.3....


Singapore..........................705.88041044.21221.31480.31654.51801.51969.22077.32084.4....

Slovenia........................388449.1421.5371.4383.2413.8449473.1525.2532.5......

South Africa....2525.8..2714.8..2498.9..2469.3..3010..2162.7......2405.5......3249.3........

Chinese Taipei............................681072878133.18938.89785.21032610654.211767.212903.5....

Total Affliates002525.802714.802498.902469.333535.145142.730572.9339963271939177.444467.554181.555014.265743.480413.293701.2106122.5120267.76540.3

Total OECD276558289839308104.8328671.2360084.5368306.2384443.3396778.3415985.4465466.3497125.8484361.8483569.2485483.4518207.6544739.6577502.5598171636586.2684979.5716501.1733584.1758451.6

plus affliates


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Korea....................8597.39583.311039.513156.514686.316098.417237.915154.415952.418395.120668.621616.923261.9....

AT Totals0000000000000041648.745619.853050.154915.564347.878822.688852.6104288.7118856.4

US GERD Share

Share of OECD44.521076953144.743254013445.47825603246.355476232846.324016837545.998058137545.293817634244.690019590343.788162057143.231074763842.282841991242.271505539241.826759246341.511854730641.727306545642.120358101142.596494312343.276343037643.679818682143.865164168143.078828368542.421352956142.0629539542

Share of Both44.521076953144.743254013445.105431658346.355476232845.974764256745.998058137544.999405634144.690019590343.528234404440.116438075138.44324716239.603329577238.886244202538.71417642738.572649262638.682041841638.600075324339.296187879439.16878813938.715611197137.445148374536.284551423635.3930296937

EU15 GERD Share

Share of OECD35.054202011933.447948688833.631303198232.759487293132.459467044932.73762429233.076227848933.126534389633.204100154732.93999136932.099983384331.886147942431.995234591431.802301594430.492524270929.683426279429.12730427429.056139958129.30528334629.128831693129.34022629129.852249125729.6317722838

Share of Both35.054202011933.447948688833.355598484732.759487293132.214744039232.73762429232.861230771933.126534389633.006999764930.566788616129.185067441729.873495391329.74589779529.658995549628.187236157927.260346044226.394569720526.383826698426.278782040825.709251152825.503226722225.533732260624.933060989

AT GERD Share

Share of OECD000000000000008.69437876789.118997441610.137200685610.110432199311.272420358113.037875250414.266636844416.620730256618.6241614682

Share of Both000000000000008.03706854168.37460687649.18612473549.180568767110.108261850511.50729328412.400902106114.216325026715.6709274527

For Graphing38.572649262638.682041841638.600075324339.296187879439.16878813938.715611197137.445148374536.284551423635.3930296937US

Recent Years28.187236157927.260346044226.394569720526.383826698426.278782040825.709251152825.503226722225.533732260624.933060989EU

8.03706854168.37460687649.18612473549.180568767110.108261850511.50729328412.400902106114.216325026715.6709274527AT

Share of Both

GERD

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

US Share of OECD


Percent

US Share of OECD GERD

Papers

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

EU15 Share of OECD

EU15 Share of OECD Plus Affiliates

Percent

EU15 Share of GERD

GERDpapers1981

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

US

EU

AT

Percent

Share of GERD for OECD and Affiliates

GERD Share of OECD + AffiliatesPaper Share (Worldwide)

USEUATUSEUAT*ChinaSingaporeS. KoreaTaiwan

199538.628.28.036.9836.964.082.010.280.80.99

199638.727.38.435.8137.814.552.230.280.941.1

199738.626.49.235.2838.325.232.620.321.151.14

199839.326.49.234.739.335.752.780.361.381.23

199939.226.310.134.1539.276.443.190.431.561.26

200038.725.711.533.9339.357.013.510.481.731.29

200137.425.512.433.9839.377.9940.532.011.45

200236.325.514.233.5438.858.824.590.592.151.49

200335.424.915.733.4338.529.595.090.62.341.56

* Neglects double counting

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

US GERD

EU GERD

AT GERD

US Papers

EU Papers

Percent

Paper Share and GERD Share

GERD SharePaper ShareTotal GERDGERD SharePaper ShareTotal GERD

USEU15USEU15USEU15USUSBillionsDollars

198144.535.139.7430.5812312796945198144.539.7123.1123127

198244.733.439.5730.8812968396945198244.739.6129.7129683

198345.133.439.0330.94138972102770198345.139.0139.0138972

198446.432.839.330.78152357107671198446.439.3152.4152357

198546.032.239.0531.22165548116000198546.039.1165.5165548

198646.032.738.8831.49169414120575198646.038.9169.4169414

198745.032.938.7831.74172997126333198745.038.8173.0172997

198844.733.138.6131.39177320131439198844.738.6177.3177320

198943.533.038.531.82181071137304198943.538.5181.1181071

199040.130.638.5532.09186729142278199040.138.6186.7186729

199138.429.238.8332.41191111145087199138.438.8191.1191111

199239.629.937.8633.13191823144696199239.637.9191.8191823

199338.929.738.1633.71188042143842199338.938.2188.0188042

199438.729.737.0734.78187951143990199438.737.1188.0187951

199538.628.237.0135.04199886146068199538.637.0199.9199886

199638.727.335.8235.85210716148498199638.735.8210.7210716

199738.626.435.2836.38222916152429199738.635.3222.9222916

199839.326.434.7337.36235058157820199839.334.7235.1235058

199939.226.334.1837.23249343167287199939.234.2249.3249343

200038.725.733.9437.22265194176103200038.733.9265.2265194

200137.425.533.9837.19268295182731200137.434.0268.3268295

200236.325.533.5536.59266178187311200236.333.6266.2266178

200335.424.933.4336.22268439189105200335.433.4268.4268439

Includes bothfrom 2003 CD

OECD and Affiliates

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

US GERD

EU15GERD

US Paper

EU Paper

Percent

GERD and Paper Shares

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

GERD Share

Paper Share

GERD

Shares in Percent, GERD in $Billions

US Paper Share Compared to GERD and GERD Share

mi is share of papers published (fractional basis) wi is the share of GERD for the OECD Group k i is a "constant" of proportionality; it differs by country. k i is also the efficiency of country i in producing papers per $1 million in GERD, normalized by the OECD average efficiency. For data in a single year the equation is an identity, but it is most useful over a range of years when k i is approximately constantA Simple Model for Country imi = k iwi

Since 1998, ki Has Been Fairly ConstantEU is about 40% more efficient; AT is about 40% less efficient. Source for papers: NSF S&EI 2006 (fractional counts)

Chart1

0.95840777860.98746577331988

0.97225910811.00410068941989

1.04980380281.08025695611990

1.09067725091.14397476270.4880302564

1.01904581541.14222818440.4728294793

0.99201497281.10424832170.4538367642

0.95939434551.13619481160.441859158

0.95436381491.20435179140.4320862524

0.92599844271.26533956170.4605052261

0.90728695831.3152416610.4909188593

0.85817095561.33800348720.5422982301

0.8465717521.33691340940.5564013634

0.84299255331.36005509560.5385543352

0.87023364831.35862220260.5657031305

0.89685235171.33376447060.53832037

0.89465225641.36000722680.5434528866

US

EU

AT

Ki= Paper Share/GERD Share

Results

Paper ShareGERDGERD Share for OECD and AffiliatesKi

USEU15ATUSEUATUSEUATTotal GERD OECDTotal GERD +AffiliatesUSEUAT

198842.9200632.505191.74278177296.613032344.782668547632.9177869916395904.5395904.50.95840777860.9874657733

198942.4189332.928681.96819181027.5136070.543.6292424832.7942044103412528.6414922.40.97225910811.0041006894

199042.2520632.871902.23790186740.5141187.640.247575593330.4297064849431166.5463979.51.04980380281.0802569561

199142.0666133.121862.30655191087.8143446.523415.738.569257632628.95331368624.7262366616450615.8495440.71.09067725091.14397476270.4880302564

199240.4679633.827082.60617191933.4143134.626639.839.711618437629.61499468265.5118576176452628.54833181.01904581541.14222818440.4728294793

199338.6396132.599482.79858187975.5142472.429759.438.950628616629.52187673676.1664809364448489.7482599.40.99201497281.10424832170.4538367642

199437.1915833.457143.01973187933.3142755.333131.438.765687368829.44665650016.8341347408451849484792.90.95939434551.13619481160.441859158

199536.8409933.745893.46771199884.114508741555.938.60266547628.01996219778.0254933046478432.6517798.70.95436381491.20435179140.4320862524

199635.8360234.304183.84912210764.6147648.245521.438.69986992627.11065394678.3584826809499897.6544613.20.92599844271.26533956170.4605052261

199735.0223634.584254.50007222935.7151862.952940.538.601191475926.29497599989.1666178962523142.8577535.80.90728695831.3152416610.4909188593

199833.8179935.114894.95247236448.8157469.854795.839.407049639526.24424494999.1323821928544653.3600016.50.85817095561.33800348720.5422982301

199933.2463635.001765.59426250826.8167216.964216.739.271758934726.181021272910.054359271572534.6638695.10.8465717521.33691340940.5564013634

200032.8121134.803206.15989267767.5176039.578684.838.923366462925.589550525911.4378231319606923.1687935.10.84299255331.36005509560.5385543352

200132.7936034.476306.97095271285.5182681.888710.837.683676067525.375929692612.3226234019625660.4719901.90.87023364831.35862220260.5657031305

200232.4733733.962267.65129265122.4186447.910407236.208153480125.463462081114.2132650767625645.9732217.40.89685235171.33376447060.53832037

200332.2186733.556178.43839275049.5188446.8118591.936.012504433724.673526839715.5273553471642773.6763761.10.89465225641.36000722680.5434528866

USEUAT

19880.95840777860.9874657733

19890.97225910811.0041006894

19901.04980380281.0802569561

19911.09067725091.14397476270.4880302564

19921.01904581541.14222818440.4728294793

19930.99201497281.10424832170.4538367642

19940.95939434551.13619481160.441859158

19950.95436381491.20435179140.4320862524

19960.92599844271.26533956170.4605052261

19970.90728695831.3152416610.4909188593

19980.85817095561.33800348720.5422982301

19990.8465717521.33691340940.5564013634

20000.84299255331.36005509560.5385543352

20010.87023364831.35862220260.5657031305

20020.89685235171.33376447060.53832037

20030.89465225641.36000722680.5434528866

Paper Share from SEI 1998-2003 (table in Ki (version 2))

Results

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

US

EU

AT

Ki= Paper Shares/GERD Share

Papers by country

Ki2003 SeriesGERD

USA PapersEUATChinaSingaporeS KoreaTaiwanUSAEUATChinaSingaporeS KoreaTaiwan

1198117283613300625851650187230518123164.196330.10

2198217645213769037642642217301604129523.6..0

3198317746914068542032918272373640138776.2101947.60

4198417893714015847333241336421735152205.5106767.20

5198519046015227356633701444558960165392.3115040.90

61986196657159279687845434946591182169288119642.30

71987195707160195818652895608771460173081.2125333.70

819882024661645729804636457310211846177296.61303230

9198921003617360911434723770413412152181027.5136070.50

10199021619417999013388832279615822688186740.5141187.60

11199122230618553414100823981318683180191087.8143446.523415.714841.58574.2

121992230936202089173499617111623984218191933.4143134.626639.817081.69558.2

1319932301552033181918010242126129634714187975.5142472.429759.41867511084.4

1419942366252220212236211124152439455769187933.3142755.333131.419233.5709.213188.7

1519952472802341102732513462189053616612199884.114508741555.919348.480814686.36713.2

1619962428282430423091815143188564107480210764.6147648.245521.421190.21049.416098.47183.4

1719972409892485203576717923218578437816222935.7151862.952940.526457.81227.317237.98017.5

1819982461602648164081619755254698218694236448.8157469.854795.8293421487.615154.48811.8

19199924721326926246399230023113112409044250826.8167216.964216.736955.51662.715952.49646.1

20200024475426841850513252843481124469302267767.5176039.578684.8483001810.418395.110179.3

212001251380275149590772961339011484710716271285.5182681.888710.855560.51978.920668.610502.8

222002246885269215648703378143491579610944265122.4186447.910407268767.62087.521616.911600

232003267162289471766404070948171872212392275049.5188446.8118591.980615.62094.723161.412720.2

242004286436.499244.996844.12400.8

GERD


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Australia2590.8....3155.8..3908.63948.54209..4710..5674.6..6410.7..7274.7..7269.1..7930.9..9242.3......

Austria1574.21672.81737.41814.71864.11968.82011.32143.82257.22438.12661.42689.22735.82950.73065.63242.83511.33809.34188.64407.84723.34974.15208.45490.35802

Belgium....2791.22882.83027.93089.23185.43241.33471.5..3590.6..3790.83890.24032.14292.34595.44766.35075.45387.95730.35364.85228.5....

Canada6281.46812.96872.27485.48077.78479.88543.58818.49456.99875.910075.510471.911094.212003.512093.711958.212522.813828.51489916643.618223.617756.417900.118252.1..

Czech Republic....................24552082.81462.513591327.91420.91571.51658.81669.11844.21880.51908.42040.62159..

Denmark1036.81105.31174.81253.21332.31468.31574.21686.51746.51841.31945.72021.72116..2431.625272729.22963.93236.1..37003934.94106.9....

Finland980.7..1183.51343.51472.41602.31753.61866.42000.220742102.62116.921212330.624062784.83160.23520.84083.44518.14571.24733.64921.1....

France19277.820669.221358.622645.223644.224106.725092.526153.227820.329808.430238.83080331044.130915.331216.631310.430944.531314.132710.433829.935313.336282.135771.436296..

Germany2986730560.931005.631877.534957.536040.537914.239205.14070241215.944252.143096.341476.640803.841657.942175.743780.445356.24878151588.852369.252973.753579.253716.9..

Greece223........360.6..403.6523.8..525.8..675.8..729.6..806..1148.2..1202..1245.9....

Hungary..................1659.91061.21012.5934.5876739.8665.1772.2761.9800.5981.81206.713511296.51250.7..

Iceland31..33.136.938.940.246.2..6260.97280.181.187.497.7..128.8149.4179.4219.3250.7250.9247.4....

Ireland264.5268.9259294.1328.6354.9369.8374.3397.8446.7513.5589.4685.1784866.7969.11047.11108.71174.71233.412761364.51503.71604.4..

Italy8734.89035.89628.41049312015.612422.413429.114282.214950.915868.415320.114903.414064.913418.613125.413368.11423914704.714578.815425.116368.517085.2......

Japan46431.449610.753305.256784.962508.3635756783372732.279037.385429.487390.386850.18514884367.789934.689048.69272595240.995625.498850.4101710.8103079.5105397.9....

Korea....................8574.29558.211084.413188.714686.316098.417237.915154.415952.418395.120668.621616.923161.4....

Luxembourg......................................368.3....410....

Mexico........................154621532130.72243.42664.23064.73618.93349.23539.5........

Netherlands4659.248475017.85046.95523.460136377.56395.56391.86761.16577.46467.86610.36927.57198.57515.37905.87842.48503.48248.783007994.58112.2....

New Zealand................521.7594.2579.8600.2644.4..670..806.1..779.2..940.6..1028.1....

Norway1071.61136.71208.31364.81521..1646.8..1678.9..1727.8..1881.2..2016.8..2214.1..2347.5..2623.72687.62813.9....

Poland..................2502.91956.32062.32138.32070.72005.22188.52338.62498.22692.22635.62566.72358.32366.2....

Portugal..302.5331.2336.6381.2403.4459496.2615690.3797.9869.4847.5827837.1915.6981.911411296.11424.71531.31453.61401.5....

Slovak Republic..................651.7899.5755.6594.2413.8452.4476.5585.6442.3374.8378.8386.5363.9385.2365.6..

Spain1930.622412246.3237526923089.63400.64006.34420.65168.85441.45743.25671.85369.455145780.45922.56752.16961.97706.580558910.19777.9....

Sweden3499.3..4012.7..4810.2..5265.3..5442..5284.2..5961..6818.3..7485.4..8358.1..10345.8..9943.7....

Switzerland3466.4..3486.2....4801.2....5216.5....5072.9......5320.8......5627.1..........

Turkey..................10501725.61695.51655.71278.51440.418312143.62241.22706.32946.930803049......

United Kingdom21468.7..20935.8..22663.123759.624139.224703.125360.925539.524238.823758.724673.32521025186.624889.124754.625348.52714328015.728819.729670.130203.1....

United States123164.1129523.6138776.2152205.5165392.3169288173081.2177296.6181027.5186740.5191087.8191933.4187975.5187933.3199884.1210764.6222935.7236448.8250826.8267767.5271285.5265122.4275049.5286436.4..

Japan (adj.)42709.345706.249151.252529.958180.159216.963181.467970.974086.880198.682011.581178.37910978353.983448.2....................

Total OECD276147.1289155.6304752.5327821.2356482.2367479.6381276.3395904.5412528.6431166.5450615.8452628.5448489.7451849478432.6499897.6523142.8544653.3572534.6606923.1625660.4625645.9642773.6....

EU25............................150299.2153052.8157818.5163573.1173524.5182728.5189679.8193452195625.6....

EU1596330.1..101947.6106767.2115040.9119642.3125333.7130323136070.5141187.6143446.5143134.6142472.4142755.3145087147648.2151862.9157469.8167216.9176039.5182681.8186447.9188446.8....

European Commission..................................................

Argentina..............................17391889.51923.32048.219671819.31484.61704.11982.9..

China....................14841.517081.61867519233.519348.421190.226457.82934236955.54830055560.568767.680615.696844.1..

Israel....................2358.42596.22813.13004.533043680.84112.14502.75307.16982.77415.67391.77077.57318.7..

Romania....................1036.91021.61117.5984.11089.2998.2770620.6503.3470.9531.5537.7595.3....

Russian Federation..................32813236709990.19019.48563.57681.88503.29203.68261.49588.610828.612757.714169.91563315287.2..

Singapore..........................709.28081049.41227.31487.61662.71810.41978.92087.52094.72400.8..

Slovenia........................388449.1421.5371.4383.2413.8449473.1525.2532.5547.1....

South Africa....2448.6..2631.8..2422.6..2393.8..2918.1..2096.7......2332......3150........

Chinese Taipei............................6713.27183.48017.58811.89646.110179.310502.81160012720.2....

Sheet1

Input Variable wi for mi = k iwiU.S. GERD share declined because of aggressive investments by the Asian Tigers. ROW is fairly flat. Since these add to 100%, U.S. and EU both lost GERD share to AT. Can you forecast what is going to happen next?

Chart1

38.572649262628.18723615798.037068541625.2030460379

38.682041841627.26034604428.374606876425.6830052377

38.600075324326.39456972059.186124735425.8192302198

39.296187879426.38382669849.180568767125.1394166551

39.16878813926.278782040810.108261850524.4441679697

38.715611197125.709251152811.50729328424.0678443661

37.445148374525.503226722212.400902106124.6507227972

36.284551423625.533732260614.216325026723.9653912892

35.393029693724.93306098915.670927452724.0029818646

US

EU15

AT

ROW

Percent

GERD Share

GERDcheck


1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005

Australia2590.7....3155.7..3908.53948.44208.9..4709.9..5674.5..6410.5..7274.5..7268.9..7930.7..8815.5......

Austria1559.21660.91725.31806.71854.11960.92005.12143.82257.224382661.42689.22735.82950.73065.63242.73511.33809.34188.54407.84724.24971.25198.65483.45814.4

Belgium....2791.22882.83027.83089.23185.43241.23471.5..3590.6..3790.73890.24032.14292.24595.34766.25075.45476.45880.76088.764076741.9..

Canada6281.46812.96872.27485.48077.78479.88543.58818.49456.99875.910075.510471.911094.212003.512093.711958.212522.813828.51489916643.618223.51776217926.918211.9..

Czech Republic....................24552082.71462.51358.91327.91420.91571.41658.81669.11844.21880.51908.42044.6....

Denmark1071.71142.41214.31295.41377.11517.71627.11743.31805.21903.22009.22063.12143.9..24472531.12728.22968.13235.4..3713.93948......

Finland981.2..1184.11344.21473.21603.11754.51867.42001.22075.12103.721182122.12331.72407.22783.83162.73528.84088.745184581.64728.44910....

France19726.721192.821997.62335424389.124813.725848.627008.628782.830621.43086631429.33150531313.231417.531573.731083.431419.43258533829.735317.536258.935297.5....

Germany30081.430780.331228.332106.435208.536299.238186.439486.640994.241511.845278.244064.442434.741693.542501.842807.244271.14561448990.151588.552308.252872.353217.1....

Greece223........360.6..403.6523.8..525.8..675.8..729.6..806..1148.2..1202........

Hungary..................1659.91061.21012.5934.4875.9739.8665.1772.2761.9800.5981.81206.71351.11286.7....

Iceland30.9..3336.938.940.146.1..6260.871.9808187.397.6..128.7149.6179.5219.3249.1250.3256.5....

Ireland264.5268.9259294.1328.6354.9369.8374.3397.8446.7513.5589.4685.1784866.7969.11047.11108.71174.71233.412761364.5......

Italy8734.89035.79628.410492.912015.512422.31342914282.114950.815868.31532014903.314064.813418.513125.31336814238.914704.614578.71542516368.417085.1......

Japan46249.349416.253096.256562.362263.263325.76756772446.978727.385094.487047.686509.684814.184036.88951588618.192352.194779.595345.799003.7102102.9103382106921.1....

Korea....................8597.39583.311039.513156.514686.316098.417237.915154.415952.418395.120668.621616.923261.9....

Luxembourg......................................368.3..........

Mexico........................1547.82155.52133.222462667.33068.33619.23348.53538.5........

Netherlands4659.248475017.85046.95523.360136377.46395.56391.86761.16577.46467.86610.26927.57198.57515.27905.87842.38503.48248.783007994.5......

New Zealand................522.6595.2580.7601.2645.5..671.1..807.4..780.5..939.3..1035.6....

Norway1071.61136.71208.31364.81521..1646.8..1678.9..1727.8..1881.2..2016.7..2214.1..2347.5..2623.72687.62813.9....

Poland..................2502.91956.32062.32138.32070.72005.22188.52338.62498.12692.22635.62566.72358.32366.2....

Portugal..302.5331.2336.6381.2403.4459496.2615690.3797.9869.4847.5827837.1915.6981.911411296.11424.71531.31699.2......

Slovak Republic..................651.7899.5755.6594.2413.8452.4476.4585.6442.3374.8378.8386.5363.9385.2....

Spain1930.622412246.3237526923089.63400.64006.34420.55168.85441.35743.25671.85369.455145780.35922.567526961.97706.48053.58902.89772.7....

Sweden3499.3..4012.7..4810.2..5265.3..5442..5284.2..5960.9..6818.2..7485.3..8358.1..10294.5..9943.6....

Switzerland3466.4..3486.2....4801.2....5216.5....5072.8......5320.7......5627..........

Turkey..................10501725.61695.51655.61278.51440.418312143.62241.22706.22946.930803048.9......

United Kingdom21400.2..20869.2..22591.323684.324062.724624.825280.525458.62416223683.524595.225130.125106.824841.224690.225324.227125.128015.528799.229698.230233.9....

United States123126.6129683.4138972152357.1165548169413.7172997.2177320.3181071.1186728.5191111.3191823.4188041.9187950.9199886.4210716.4222916.4235058.4249343.1265194268294.9266177.7268439....

Japan (adj.)42296.645264.548676.252022.357617.958644.762570.867314.173370.979423.68121980393.878344.577596.782580....................

Total OECD276558289839305579328671.2357369.7368306.2381944.4396778.3413516.1431931.2451983.1453788.9449573.2452764.4479030.2500272.1523321543156.8570842.8604566.3622799.9627461.6638183.9....

EU25............................151280.4153902.4158384.8163923.6173594.7182792.6189729.3194297.2196270.3....

EU1596945.2..102770.2107671116000.3120574.7126332.8131438.9137304.3142278.1145086.5144695.8143842143989.5146068.4148497.9152429.3157820.4167287.1176103.1182730.9187311.4189105.2....

European Commission..................................................

Argentina..............................1704.21851.71884.92007.31927.61782.91454.91670.1....

China....................14841.517081.61867519233.519348.421190.226457.82934236955.74830055560.668827.380606.6....

Israel....................2063.42259.72434.92594.52853.531823552.83890.64588.76047.26389.86443.16375.66540.3..

Romania....................1036.91021.61117.5984.11089.2998.2770620.6503.3470.9531.5538.5599.3....


Singapore..........................705.88041044.21221.31480.31654.51801.51969.22077.32084.4....

Slovenia........................388449.1421.5371.4383.2413.8449473.1525.2532.5......

South Africa....2525.8..2714.8..2498.9..2469.3..3010..2162.7......2405.5......3249.3........

Chinese Taipei............................681072878133.18938.89785.21032610654.211767.212903.5....

Affiliate Total002525.802714.802498.902469.333535.145142.730572.9339963271939177.444467.554181.555014.265743.480413.293701.2106122.5120267.7

From Official DataSet

US123126.6129683.4138972152357.1165548169413.7172997.2177320.3181071.1186728.5191111.3191823.4188041.9187950.9199886.4210716.4222916.4235058.4249343.1265194268294.9266177.7268439US199884210765222936236449250827267768271286265122275050US

EU1596945.2..102770.2107671116000.3120574.7126332.8131438.9137304.3142278.1145086.5144695.8143842143989.5146068.4148497.9152429.3157820.4167287.1176103.1182730.9187311.4189105.2EU15145087147648151863157470167217176040182682186448188447....EU15 them

EA2000000000014841.517081.61867519233.526158.428477.234590.938280.846740.95862666214.880594.593510.1EA2260622837434475381544660258479660638036893336EA2

ROG56486.2160155.666362.668643.178536.278317.885113.388019.197609.9999999999136459.7146086.5130761133010.3134309.5146094.4157048.1167565.9167011.4173215.1185056.4199260.5199500.5207397.3ROG150719160100168262170481176791188594199871203430210079ROG

OECDgroup276558289839308104.8328671.2360084.5368306.2384443.3396778.3415985.4465466.3497125.8484361.8483569.2485483.4518207.6544739.6577502.5598171636586.2684979.5716501.1733584.1758451.6OECDgroup521752546886577536602553641436690881719902735367766911OECDgroup Total

8/19/06

AT Recalc0000000000000041648.745619.853050.154915.564347.878822.688852.6104288.7118856.4

ROW (AT)00000000000000130604.1139905.5149106.7150376.7155608.2164859.8176622.7175806.3182051

1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Not much different, I think I am converging on a set to use

199519961997199819992000200120022003

I made no interpolations, even S. Africa. OECD probably made some in their OECD totalGERD shares based on OECDgroupShares based on Official DataSetdifferences in percentage points

GERD Shares Using AT group 8.19.6US38.638.738.639.339.238.737.436.335.438.338.538.639.239.138.837.736.135.9US-0.3-0.10.0-0.1-0.10.00.2-0.20.5

199519961997199819992000200120022003EU1528.227.326.426.426.325.725.525.524.927.827.026.326.126.125.525.425.424.6EU15 them-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.4

US38.638.738.639.339.238.737.436.335.4EA25.05.26.06.47.38.69.211.012.35.05.26.06.37.38.59.210.912.2EA2-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2

EU1528.227.326.426.426.325.725.525.524.9ROG28.228.829.027.927.227.027.827.227.328.929.329.128.327.627.327.827.727.4ROG0.70.40.10.40.40.3-0.00.50.0

AT8.08.49.29.210.111.512.414.215.7OECDgroup100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100OECDgroup Total0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

ROG (AT)25.225.725.825.124.424.124.724.024.0can be as much as 0.5% points different, which might be significant in accuracy checks

OECD Group100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

GERDcheck

US

EU15

EA2

ROG

Percent

GERD Share of OECDgroup Check

B&WforPaper

US

EU15

AT

ROW

Percent

GERD Share

RelativeEfficiency

Fig. 5. Relative efficiencies for US (diamonds), EU15 (squares), EA2 (triangles), and rest of OECD Group (none). The degree of flatness of the curves is a measure of how accurate the model is for a interval of time.

Fig. 6. Accuracy of model using constant 1998 values for relative efficiency Ki, and actual values of investment share.

Model predictions of paper share of OECD Group in percent (diamonds), and actual paper shares (squares) are shown.

Fig. 6a. U.S.

Fig. 6b. EU15

Fig. 6c. EA2 China and Taiwan

Fig. 6d. Rest of OECD Group.

RelativeEfficiency

0.96165030321.21354691710.51283161770.9295312816

0.92986349141.27062099490.53964367090.9243445025

0.90728695831.3152416610.54674847160.9311877284

0.86179877361.34365974140.5470601590.9756151698

0.85020486761.3426508570.5309723381.0120654419

0.84660195571.36587838080.49685248981.0322898296

0.87023364831.35862220260.5169906871.008000995

0.90071061141.33950232670.48121405761.0231919473

0.89834209431.36561634040.48195523041.0352907705

US

EU15

EA2

ROG

PaperShareCheck

33.817985446833.8179854468

33.699729188233.2463617638

33.401097541132.8121080777

32.475745818132.7936029047

31.070477038132.4733675993

30.908057239932.2186683506

US Model

US Actual

35.114891260935.1148912609

35.028059163535.0017584111

34.2370576134.8031985873

34.096615127534.4763014915

34.06766972433.9622610216

33.016653240133.5561748139

EU15 Model

EU15 Actual

3.4639980043.463998004

3.97450014173.8576189439

4.63056788014.2055871602

5.02021169824.7442729149

5.97876816835.2591424226

6.6579160985.8655660341

EA2 Model

EA2 Actuals

27.603125288427.6031252884

26.889628813127.8942608812

26.632020065528.1791061748

27.086672821727.9858226889

26.989081401728.3052289565

26.72490452428.3595908014

ROG Model

ROG Actual

199519961997199819992000200120022003199519961997199819992000200120022003

GERD shares based on OECDgroupGERD shares official database

US38.638.738.639.339.238.737.436.335.4US38.338.538.639.239.138.837.736.135.9

EU1528.227.326.426.426.325.725.525.524.9EU15 them27.827.026.326.126.125.525.425.424.6

EA25.05.26.06.47.38.69.211.012.3EA25.05.26.06.37.38.59.210.912.2

ROG28.228.829.027.927.227.027.827.227.3ROG28.929.329.128.327.627.327.827.727.4

OECDgroup100100100100100100100100100OECDgroup Total100100100100100100100100100

Paper shares based on OECDgroupForecasts based on 1995 value of Ki

Forecasts based on 1998 value of Ki199519961997199819992000200120022003

US36.840987089435.836019285635.022357601133.817985446833.246361763832.812108077732.793602904732.473367599332.2186683506US33.817985446833.708346247733.318345790832.224995632331.226195165630.458958685US36.840987089437.061051576537.120847488537.73627551837.604317605837.27108527536.238518517834.670429550934.4891911309

EU1533.745891667134.304182982234.584247908735.114891260935.001758411134.803198587334.476301491533.962261021633.5561748139EU1535.114891260934.975084713134.217081886933.942878847333.983479427133.1840310899EU1533.745891667132.763298944531.910187060231.714552965331.63612922430.921724031130.794881247530.768738762229.8194970944

EA22.56160229522.7997833483.26374877223.4639980043.85761894394.20558716024.74427291495.25914242265.8655660341EA23.4639980043.97431085464.63270527035.0021900985.94671982686.673484124EA22.56160229522.66067685243.06128622163.24726206263.72582302684.34084182154.70610634735.60468771396.2413426151

ROG26.851518948327.060014384327.12964571827.603125288427.894260881228.179106174827.985822688928.305228956528.3595908014ROG27.603125288426.900851272326.709393680327.494248173826.886332981927.0341500882ROG26.851518948327.211856383727.081386046226.299271700225.61947774725.374037334825.807214239325.714232620625.4625343288

OECDgroup100100100100100100100100100OECDgroup100OECDgroup100100100100100100100100100

Relative Efficiency KiRelative Efficiency Ki based on official GERD database19981999200020012002200319992000200120022003

Forecasts based on 1998 value of Ki, using official GERD dataForecasts based on 1998 value of Ki, using official GERD data

US0.95510647550.92642522420.90731319320.86059201340.84879730380.84751621020.87577708540.89496400880.9103111158US0.96165030320.92986349140.90728695830.86179877360.85020486760.84660195570.87023364830.90071061140.8983420943US33.817985446833.699729188233.401097541132.475745818131.070477038130.9080572399US33.246361763832.951747652232.038844822430.652481330430.4922465898

EU151.19720470211.25839132511.31027890491.33092487541.33193990331.35372276621.35184076381.33009388031.3458505889EU151.21354691711.27062099491.3152416611.34365974141.3426508571.36587838081.35862220261.33950232671.3656163404EU1535.114891260935.028059163534.2370576134.096615127534.06766972433.0166532401EU1535.001758411134.211350779634.07101374834.042090078232.9918627481

EA20.50746290960.53556981060.54488986270.5412800020.52538718440.4913760090.51337114390.47869560090.4757505279EA20.51283161770.53964367090.54674847160.5470601590.5309723380.49685248980.5169906870.48121405760.4819552304EA23.4639980043.97450014174.63056788015.02021169825.97876816836.657916098EA23.85761894394.49439319134.87257845245.80294591146.462121613

ROG0.95244315940.93860807050.9350015860.98863844371.02514743441.04303931441.00631448491.04081272531.0371097897ROG0.92953128160.92434450250.93118772840.97561516981.01206544191.03228982961.0080009951.02319194731.0352907705ROG27.603125288426.889628813126.632020065527.086672821726.989081401726.724904524ROG27.894260881227.627027530328.098666714427.997429149927.723382275

OECDgroup111111111OECDgroup111111111OECDgroup100100100100100100OECDgroup100100100100100

Compare to earlier graph, Fig 5 in Apaper

This one is difficult because the curves are basically flat. These truncated scales accentuate the error.

0.95510647551.19720470210.50746290960.9524431594

0.92642522421.25839132510.53556981060.9386080705

0.90731319321.31027890490.54488986270.935001586

0.86059201341.33092487540.5412800020.9886384437

0.84879730381.33193990330.52538718441.0251474344

0.84751621021.35372276620.4913760091.0430393144

0.87577708541.35184076380.51337114391.0063144849

0.89496400881.33009388030.47869560091.0408127253

0.91031111581.34585058890.47575052791.0371097897

US

EU15

EA2

ROG

Relative Efficiency Ki

33.817985446833.8179854468

33.708346247733.2463617638

33.318345790832.8121080777

32.224995632332.7936029047

31.226195165632.4733675993

30.45895868532.2186683506

US Model

US Actual

Percent Paper Share

Accuracy Corrected Chart

35.114891260935.1148912609

34.975084713135.0017584111

34.217081886934.8031985873

33.942878847334.4763014915

33.983479427133.9622610216

33.184031089933.5561748139

EU15 Model

EU15 Actual

Percent Paper Share

Accuracy of Corrected Model

3.4639980043.463998004

3.97431085463.8576189439

4.63270527034.2055871602

5.0021900984.7442729149

5.94671982685.2591424226

6.6734841245.8655660341

EA2 Model

Percent Paper Share


27.603125288427.6031252884

26.900851272327.8942608812

26.709393680328.1791061748

27.494248173827.9858226889

26.886332981928.3052289565

27.034150088228.3595908014

ROG Model

ROG Actual

Percent Paper Shre


0.96165030321.21354691710.51283161770.9295312816

0.92986349141.27062099490.53964367090.9243445025

0.90728695831.3152416610.54674847160.9311877284

0.86179877361.34365974140.5470601590.9756151698

0.85020486761.3426508570.5309723381.0120654419

0.84660195571.36587838080.49685248981.0322898296

0.87023364831.35862220260.5169906871.008000995

0.90071061141.33950232670.48121405761.0231919473

0.89834209431.36561634040.48195523041.0352907705

US

EU15

EA2

ROG

33.817985446833.8179854468

33.699729188233.2463617638

33.401097541132.8121080777

32.475745818132.7936029047

31.070477038132.4733675993

30.908057239932.2186683506

US Model

US Actual

Percent Paper Share

Accuracy based on Official DB

35.114891260935.1148912609

35.028059163535.0017584111

34.2370576134.8031985873

34.096615127534.4763014915

34.06766972433.9622610216

33.016653240133.5561748139

EU15 Model

EU15 Actual

Paper Share Percent

Accuracy Based on Official DB

3.4639980043.463998004

3.97450014173.8576189439

4.63056788014.2055871602

5.02021169824.7442729149

5.97876816835.2591424226

6.6579160985.8655660341

EA2 Model

EA2 Actuals

Paper Share Percent


27.603125288427.6031252884

26.889628813127.8942608812

26.632020065528.1791061748

27.086672821727.9858226889

26.989081401728.3052289565

26.72490452428.3595908014

ROG Model

ROG Actual

Paper Share Percent


33.246361763833.2463617638

32.951747652232.8121080777

32.038844822432.7936029047

30.652481330432.4733675993

30.492246589832.2186683506

Official 1999 Ki

35.001758411135.0017584111

34.211350779634.8031985873

34.07101374834.4763014915

34.042090078233.9622610216

32.991862748133.5561748139

Official 1999 Ki

3.85761894393.8576189439

4.49439319134.2055871602

4.87257845244.7442729149

5.80294591145.2591424226

6.4621216135.8655660341

EA2 Model

Official 1999 Ki

27.894260881227.8942608812

27.627027530328.1791061748

28.098666714427.9858226889

27.997429149928.3052289565

27.72338227528.3595908014

ROG Model

Official 1999 Ki

27.603125288427.60312528840

26.889628813127.89426088121999

26.632020065528.17910617482000

27.086672821727.98582268892001

26.989081401728.30522895652002

26.72490452428.35959080142003

ROG Model

ROG Actual

dummy

ROG Accuracy with Non-Truncated Graph

33.817985446833.81798544680

33.699729188233.2463617638

33.401097541132.8121080777

32.475745818132.7936029047

31.070477038132.4733675993

30.908057239932.2186683506

US Model

US Actual

Percent Paper Share

Accuracy based on Official DB

35.114891260935.11489126090

35.028059163535.0017584111

34.2370576134.8031985873

34.096615127534.4763014915

34.06766972433.9622610216

33.016653240133.5561748139

EU15 Model

EU15 Actual

dummy

Paper Share Percent


36.840987089436.84098708940

37.061051576535.8360192856

37.120847488535.0223576011

37.73627551833.8179854468

37.604317605833.2463617638

37.27108527532.8121080777

36.238518517832.7936029047

34.670429550932.4733675993

34.489191130932.2186683506

US Model

US Actual

Accuracy 1995 Ki

33.745891667133.74589166710

32.763298944534.3041829822

31.910187060234.5842479087

31.714552965335.1148912609

31.63612922435.0017584111

30.921724031134.8031985873

30.794881247534.4763014915

30.768738762233.9622610216

29.819497094433.5561748139

EU15 Model

EU15 Actual

Accuracy 1995 Ki

2.56160229522.5616022952

2.66067685242.799783348

3.06128622163.2637487722

3.24726206263.463998004

3.72582302683.8576189439

4.34084182154.2055871602

4.70610634734.7442729149

5.60468771395.2591424226

6.24134261515.8655660341

EA2 Model

EA2 Actual

Accuracy 1995 Ki

26.851518948326.85151894830

27.211856383727.0600143843

27.081386046227.129645718

26.299271700227.6031252884

25.61947774727.8942608812

25.374037334828.1791061748

25.807214239327.9858226889

25.714232620628.3052289565

25.462534328828.3595908014

ROG Model

ROG Actual

Accuracy 1995 Ki

Appendix table 5-41 Check of Fractional Count Only from 1991 On

S&E articles, by region and country/economy: 19882003

Region and country/economy1988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003

All countries466,419497,102508,795515,530547,617540,491567,204580,809593,568594,467617,762632,059632,781649,795641,388698,726

Major S&E article producers353,862377,817389,307397,004422,045421,573442,390455,429467,036468,143487,006497,069496,599512,166501,778546,626

United States177,662187,224191,559194,015198,864197,397199,769202,887201,798197,531197,890198,524196,221200,870195,792211,233

EU-15134,551145,337149,032152,761166,230166,540179,710185,842193,172195,060205,479209,006208,128211,177204,769220,002

Austria2,2412,6752,6902,7563,0473,0513,1773,4773,6183,8804,1724,2104,2594,5264,4054,906

Belgium3,5863,9054,1034,1644,4314,5124,9495,2605,5835,5095,8225,9245,7395,9845,9336,604

Denmark3,4453,7223,7163,7764,1414,0684,4584,4084,4774,5124,7824,9094,9294,9884,7405,291

Finland2,7892,9813,0713,2113,4383,6033,9744,1344,3544,5234,5644,8724,8785,0984,8735,202

France21,40922,68622,93723,51826,17226,22528,26629,30929,75530,06131,80932,09730,96031,31729,92831,971

Germany29,29231,82132,29532,92935,12034,10336,90138,10039,12340,74343,95343,55043,44043,62341,86344,305

Greece1,2391,5181,3971,5981,7361,7591,9742,0682,2652,4072,6662,7052,8923,3293,3733,770

Ireland7908269029159461,0031,1681,2101,2691,3181,5261,5261,5961,6651,6501,758

Italy11,22912,50913,06213,77815,46215,27917,00017,90419,34219,14720,32120,81921,03822,31322,31424,696

Luxembourg7111715232226312033333442463346

Netherlands8,5819,73610,17610,10611,06011,36011,96112,33012,43812,77912,75612,64212,46612,60212,51713,475

Portugal4295105876407127949149891,0901,2501,4041,7651,8132,1422,1732,625

Spain5,4326,1166,8377,2699,2679,75910,53411,34312,23413,04013,78614,86014,77615,57015,86816,826

Sweden7,5738,1268,1728,1398,2738,5478,9729,2849,6979,6779,96710,1299,81510,3149,82910,237

United Kingdom36,50938,19539,06939,95042,40442,45645,43645,99347,90446,18347,91648,96549,48547,66045,26948,288

Japan34,43536,56938,57039,59044,14343,33946,69247,60350,39250,17154,65856,13455,41357,42055,08560,067

East Asia-47,2148,68710,14610,63812,80714,29716,22019,09721,67525,38128,98033,40536,83742,69946,13255,324

China4,6195,4116,2856,1866,9567,5667,8219,26110,07012,53013,80716,19718,14220,97823,60929,186

Singapore4105175725997558541,0221,1841,1811,3381,6351,9842,3012,6032,6773,122

South Korea7711,0351,1701,3611,7592,1842,9313,8064,7285,6367,0758,3869,38611,03711,74513,746

Taiwan1,4141,7242,1192,4923,3373,6934,4464,8465,6965,8786,4636,8387,0088,0828,1009,270

Other regions/countries

Other Western Europe9,3279,90110,85110,93912,16212,37913,30713,82614,59715,45616,17016,97417,54817,97118,29320,939

Croatianananana17575508563614631589671704710657845

Cyprus1515178222424415466615860748592

Iceland696889104105122137158149147177136154174193203

Norway2,1922,2472,4262,4032,6552,6372,8052,9532,9503,0123,1003,1273,1953,2523,1183,339

Slovenianananana10404459443478595625707901876856969

Switzerland5,3165,5485,9016,0986,6516,8717,3727,3617,4897,9128,0968,2978,4548,1077,7448,542

Turkey5076687508461,0481,1721,3971,7132,2062,4402,8183,2403,4824,0985,0726,224

Yugoslavia1,2111,3301,6411,4471,621496514507568555605622513547460600

All others172626333579918791999911586131108124

Other Asia10,11611,07510,56610,93711,53911,32911,59211,35511,47811,15811,98512,77912,29413,45614,00515,779

Bangladesh9599116104151153136170155146138168160177160204

India8,8829,7449,2009,51710,1009,7639,9289,5919,7369,41910,06610,58910,04711,07611,53812,774

Indonesia59861048986103120133137146138172165207167178

Malaysia208241233260247293345373372339402493470494485520

Pakistan235263257315277349324339274258276300277282334368

Philippines127149157148150148141151153174167187177158178179

Sri Lanka1071011068482838582786875941047695141

Thailand2872722822983003173833383864155305586557278081,072

Vietnam52666065746761102113120107112144158144216

All others64555058725471767474861069610196125

Eastern Europe/former USSR41,59743,69742,83641,21843,21435,97638,19936,39035,07434,25934,68034,42135,84433,68633,90135,067

Armenianananana21165178182179186169156167152201175

Azerbaijannananana15197189157125879470896873107

Bulgaria1,0891,2191,2161,1691,2181,3801,024963968977931900887784789829

Belarusnananana307081,021728597576598616576528480532

Czech Republic2,7462,9953,0792,8813,1323,3082,1791,9932,2492,2312,3332,3742,4582,6222,7782,950

Estonianananana2177202240248255299320344339333368

Georgianananana12158136148126135131129141110132117

Hungary1,7141,8471,7221,8061,8241,7181,7741,8261,8391,9392,1442,3132,2922,4792,3082,503

Kazakhstannananana19250191173143125122109113116123128

Latvianananana37180159154168152164173159157171153

Lithuanianananana5149189179196209248284262272338322

Moldovanananana15156159140136116989596777678

Poland4,0304,2453,9993,9194,1133,8484,0414,5354,5974,4454,8915,1955,3425,6866,0236,770

Romania393513377395568507675648871835858909956997900988

Russianananana81719,65921,61219,97418,46418,34317,84117,14918,27115,84615,81815,782

Slovakianananana44na1,1511,1371,1751,0511,1449971,007955936943

Ukrainenananana1622,8942,9232,8562,6002,2872,3622,3512,3652,2562,1832,089

USSR31,62532,87932,44331,04731,127130nananananananananana

Uzbekistannananana50275290295347264213242273204192192

All othersnananana5116105634546393845394742

Near East/North Africa7,8968,4008,2418,1538,4238,8309,1419,6479,70610,06310,52210,75211,11111,80211,98713,465

Algeria667398106120123125151156151165179204225240285

Egypt1,1301,2781,2541,4291,2881,2791,3801,3591,3591,2421,3021,3621,3761,5481,5641,720

Iran8691941261501752332713123665236998259951,2771,806

Israel4,9165,1344,9684,8735,2345,5755,5595,9215,8156,2036,2406,0916,3146,4876,4156,941

Jordan161174176148135130144153167193217245242240237263

Kuwait304326368209104112186166240210251298243257234244

Lebanon54612947525462566896111129139202158223

Morocco11310897128170164182237256298370425471469461428

Oman1320273237424653636376889996116114

Saudi Arabia569577644613653713734781754682700637595580581573

Syria19283431494948475260426056615467

Tunisia9610710412113191135147159206230269278344361452

United Arab Emirates233033577710998122145154157137144159169193

All others346394314235222214208183159140138132124138120158

Central/South America5,6326,4046,8867,0527,9237,9908,5259,54710,46811,52212,90014,25014,74716,35517,12218,933

Argentina1,4231,5181,6271,4991,5261,5851,7471,9692,2122,4302,5462,7052,7922,9303,1613,086

Brazil1,7662,1172,3742,6403,1072,8853,0733,4713,8304,3625,2025,9506,1957,2057,6508,684

Chile6827458308198358777988999289749871,0621,1001,2031,2601,500

Colombia86111122106125122145167196230237254320324353337

Costa Rica55555455626166707278737682929484

Cuba679010894131113141166194177234242282299201264

Mexico8841,0461,0381,0821,3361,5021,6631,9012,1242,2712,6152,9252,9503,2093,3073,747

Peru686777707366646872717160779387129

Uruguay4250576481918498115133136159158155151194

Venezuela292328314329377395420430432484528523509535525563

All others268278286294268292324307292313272293281310333345

Sub-Saharan Africa4,5444,5044,3554,4094,3564,3214,2634,1613,9824,0283,9854,2073,9733,9904,1514,219

Botswana9201718202819344538385058597176

Cameroon3541465458758473608177717675108123

Ethiopia71587093888486998810980106909310199

Ghana37364047725267657788678595907383

Kenya291300255260295346280310275256270278237230239258

Nigeria886864815719666604470464433458418451428332353384

Senegal Republicnananana2na75776465737173625479

South Africa2,5232,4992,4062,5522,4192,3772,4592,3642,2822,2372,2682,3662,2372,32

Documents

R. D. Shelton