INTRODUCTION

The research presents preliminary results ofthe CRORURIS scenario building exercisefor future development of rural Croatia. Themain motivation for the research was thepredominantly negative recent trends facingthe Croatian countryside. On the otherhand, to our knowledge, no scenario-basedresearch has been done and only a fewpartial impact analyses have beenconducted in recent Croatian agriculturalpolicy.

• based on economic development through synergy and innovative approaches

• stimulating institutional and business framework• better planning and development of infrastructure• networking of local actors through cooperatives, clusters, producer

organisations, and other types of organisations; productive cooperation among different levels of government

• more significant impact of CAP and other EU funds after 2020 with better absorption capacities at the local level

• multisector economy: market-oriented conventional agriculture; organic agriculture; integration of agriculture and tourism; fishery; forestry; production sectors; various selective forms of tourism

• positive demographic trends by 2030; immigrants include young and educated people, seasonal workers in tourism (finding permanent residence), and people from war-torn areas

• geopolitical stability

• a new direction in solving key developmental problems has been started

• stronger development of agriculture as the pillar of development (multifunctionality of agriculture, strengthening of smaller farmers), due to innovative approaches to solving ownership issues and agricultural land management; importance of the Rural development programme and improvement of the competitiveness of the agricultural sector

• strong development of selective forms of tourism in the vicinity of coastal touristic centres

• demographic trends are still negative (emigration and depopulation); immigration of workers from the neighbouring countries compensates for the lack of workforce

• an important shift in activating the older population, which is now recognised as an important factor of economic development due to traditional knowledge and skills, and ownership of property

• geopolitical instability in Southeast Europe; uncertainty related to EU enlargement

• demographic stagnation or growth (depending on the type of rural area) by 2030

• lack of innovative approaches to solving key issues and a lack of coordination and networking among key actors

• further decrease of younger population, and increase in the share of older population

• immigration as a consequence of external factors, primarily further touristification and second home ownership in touristic areas, which become seasonal/permanent places of residence for increasing numbers of European pensioners

• demographic stabilisation of predominantly agricultural areas, with significant unemployment levels

• increasing immigration of seasonal workforce in tourism and agriculture DISSCUSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The final objective and the purpose of theresearch is to provoke and support discussion onfuture development of rural areas in Croatia. Theact of thinking about possible futures can lead toan enhanced awareness about the nature ofcollective problems and potential solutionsthereof. The study will address differentstakeholders in rural development and usedifferent outputs of the results, including anonline atlas and web-based GIS discussion tool“Rural Change in Croatia”, preparing andpublishing “The Atlas of Rural Change in Croatia”,organizing a final workshop “What is the future ofRural Areas in Croatia?” and preparing policyrecommendations.

Quo Vadis Rural Croatia: Scenarios for Future Development of the Croatian Countryside

Aleksandar Lukić*Petra Radeljak Kaufmann*Dane Pejnović**University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Department of Geography

Road to nowhere

Growthwithout

development

Shift

Ruralrenaissance

Lack ofinnovation andnetworking

Out-migrationand

depopulation

Demographicstabilisation / in-migration

Growth ofinnovation and

networking

• lack of innovative approaches to development and a lack of coordination among the growing number of actors; further weakening of human and social capital at the local level

• continued top-down approach, further political and fiscal centralisation; weak influence of the Rural development programme and EU funds, due to lack of experts and coordination between different levels of government

• dominance of large economic enterprises, especially in agriculture and tourism

• growing unemployment as a key factor of further depopulation• lack of human resources, especially young and educated people

becomes the main factor of lagging behind in development• local natural resources (drinkable water, forests, soil, etc.) become

primary sources of income, overwhelmingly in the hands of foreign investors

• increasing difficulties in finding seasonal workforce for agriculture and tourism; uncoordinated immigration of low-skilled workers

• potentially strong negative impacts of geopolitical instability in Southeast Europe

METHODOLOGY

Scenarios have been constructed bycombining factor analysis, clusteranalysis, and the Delphi method, i.e.quantitative and qualitative tools. Basedon the results of the factor analysis, 15key variables influencing the developmentof rural areas were identified and thenused to conduct a cluster analysis. Sixdifferent types of rural areas in Croatiawere recognised (Fig. 1). Based on this, apanel of scientists and experts consideredpossible future developments of eachvariable through two rounds ofquestionnaires. Monte Carlo simulationwas then used, resulting in the most likelynew types of rural areas (clusters) for theyear 2030. Furthermore, the experts'responses were qualitatively analysed andinterpreted to form the basis forexplorative scenarios (Fig. 2).

AIM

The main anticipated aim of theinterdisciplinary CRORURIS study is theproduction of a set of alternative futurescenarios for Croatian rural areas in 2030with the goal of encouraging an informedand evidence-based public debate on ruralfutures.

RSA Central and Eastern Europe Conference 2017

REGIONAL POLARISATION AND UNEQUALDEVELOPMENT IN CEE: CHALLENGES FOR INNOVATIVE PLACE-BASED POLICIES

10th – 13th September 2017Babeş-Bolyai UniversityCluj-Napoca, Romania

Fig. 2 The basis for explorative scenarios

RESULTS

Fig. 1 Types of rural areas in Croatia