Quo Vadis OSCM? An Analysis of Past and Future Trends in

Operations and Supply Chain Management (OSCM) Research

Zahra Seyedghorban, University of Melbourne

Daniel Samson, University of Melbourne

Morgan Swink, Texas Christian University

Agenda

• Research objectives

• Method

• Content Map

• Top 100 Co-cited documents

• Bursts

• Top 50 Co-cited documents in each decade

• Top 200 in 2000s and 2010s

• Observations on progression of the field

Research Objectives

• Identify OSCM topic domains and underling knowledge structures

• Identify influential documents/authors

• Identify past and future trends (and likely drivers?)

• Prior studies:• Most depend on qualitative and narrative analyses• Many focus on a single journal or publication type, context, or research method• Foregoing quantitative studies (N=7) are dated, ignore trends, focus on journals,

and/or are narrowly focused

• Our study: 65,000+ articles and books cited in 23 OSCM journals over the last 70 years

Defining OSCM

• Production -> Operations -> Operations & Supply Chain Management

• Core definition: the management of processes by which goods and services are designed, procured, produced, and delivered. These processes include transformational activities (e.g., production and service), as well as the management of organizational relationships and flows of materials, information, money, and people (Buffa, 1966; Chase and Aquilano, 1977; Jacobs and Chase, 2011; Swink, et al., 2020)

Co-Citation Analysis

• Bibliometric analysis: “the quantitative study of physical published units, or of bibliographic units, or of the surrogates for either” (Broadus, 1987, p. 376)

• When a pair of documents is cited in another document(s), the cited documents are likely to be linked by shared commonalities

• A document is considered to exert strong influence if it is co-cited more often in subsequent documents

Scoping the Literature

Rapid Growth over 70 Years

3 3

5

3

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950s: IJORS; MS; OR 1960s: IISE T; IJPR;JSCM

1970s: DS; EJOR; INF;OMEGA; JBL

1980s: IJOPM; IJPE;JOM

1990s: IJLM; IJL-RA;IJPDLM; JPSM; MSOM;

POM; PPC; SCM-IJ;TR:LTR

New Journals Per Decade

The OSCM Landscape

Supply Chain Resilience

Qualitative Methods

Survey Methods

Strategy & Capabilities

Lean/TPS

Supply Chain Integration

Production Optimization

Optimization Foundations

Simulation

DEA

Optimization Advances

Decision Analysis

Scheduling

The Top 100 Most Co-cited DocumentsFreq* Author(s) Year Title Source Knowledge Area Highly Co-cited With

Panel A: General Methodological Contributions

1281 Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes 1978 Measuring the efficiency of decision making unitsEuropean Journal of Operational

ResearchEstimation

Banker, Charnes, and Cooper (1984); Farrell

(1957)

1205 Garey and Johnson 1979 Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-completeness Book OptimizationGraham, Lawler, Lenstra, and Kan (1979);

Nemhauser and Wolsey (1988)

1011Hair, Black, Babin, Anderson,

and Tatham 1979 Multivariate data analysis Book Estimation Fornell and Larcker (1981)

976 Yin 1994 Case study research: design and methods Book Empirical methods Eisenhardt (1989)

954 Nunnally 1967 Psychometric Theory Book Estimation Fornell and Larcker (1981); Flynn (1990)

891 Keeney and Raiffa 1976 Decisions with multiple objectives Book Optimization Saaty (1980); Steuer (1986)

879 Eisenhardt 1989 Building theories from case study research Academy of Management Review Empirical methods Voss, Tsikriktsis, and Frohlich (2002); Yin (2017)

871 Fornell and Larcker 1981Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and

measurement errorJournal of Marketing Research Estimation

Podsakoff, MacKenzie, Lee, and Podsakoff

(2003); Anderson and Gerbing (1988)

780 Saaty 1980The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource

AllocationBook Optimization Keeney and Raiffa (1993); Zadeh (1965)

751 Banker, Charnes, and Cooper 1984Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data

envelopment analysisManagement Science Estimation Charnes et al. (1978); Rockafellar (1970)

739 Law and Kelton 1981 Simulation modeling and analysis Book EstimationBuzacott and Shanthikumar (1993); Conway,

Maxwell, and Miller (1967)

727Podsakoff, MacKenzie, Lee, and

Podsakoff 2003

Common method biases in behavioral research: a critical review of the

literature and recommended remediesJournal of Applied Psychology Empirical methods

Fornell and Larcker (1981); Armstrong and

Overton (1977)

722 Armstrong and Overton 1977 Estimating nonresponse bias in mail surveys Journal of Marketing Research Estimation Podsakoff et al. (2003); Churchill (1979)

594 Goldberg 1989 Genetic algorithms in search, optimization, and machine learning Book OptimizationKirkpatrick, Gelatt, and Vecchi (1983); Holland

(1975)

530 Anderson and Gerbing 1988Structural equation modeling in practice: A review and recommended

two-step approachPsychological Bulletin Estimation Fornell and Larcker (1981); Bollen (1989)

474 Miles and Huberman 1994 Qualitative data analysis: An expanded sourcebook Book Empirical methods Eisenhardt (1989)

470 Voss, Tsikriktsis, and Frohlich 2002 Case research in operations managementInternational Journal of

Operations & Production Management

Empirical methods Eisenhardt (1989)

466 Farrell 1957 The measurement of productive efficiencyJournal of the Royal Statistical

SocietyEstimation Charnes et al. (1978)

462 Forrester 1961 Industrial Dynamics Book Estimation Sterman (1989)

459 Kirkpatrick, Gelatt, and Vecchi 1983 Optimization by simulated annealing Science Optimization Glover (1989); Goldberg (1989)

426Graham, Lawler, Lenstra, and

Kan 1979

Optimization and approximation in deterministic sequencing and

scheduling: a surveyAnnals of Discrete Mathematics Optimization Johnson (1954); Garey and Johnson (1979)

417 Zadeh 1965 Information and control Fuzzy sets Optimization Saaty (1980);

407 Holland 1975Adaptation in natural and artificial systems: an introductory analysis with

applications to biology, control, and artificial intelligenceBook Optimization Goldberg (1989)

399 Johnson 1954Optimal two‐and three‐stage production schedules with setup times

included

Naval Research Logistics

QuarterlyOptimization Baker (1974); Graham et al. (1979)

396 Markowitz 1952 Portfolio selection The Journal of Finance Optimization Markowitz (1959); Artzner (1999)

387 Nemhauser and Wolsey 1988 Integer programming and combinatorial optimization Book Optimization Fisher (1981); Garey and Johnson (1979)

383 Podsakoff and Organ 1986 Self-reports in organizational research: Problems and prospects Journal of Management Empirical methods Fornell and Larcker (1981)

379 Birge and Louveaux 2000 Introduction to stochastic programming Book Optimization Benders (2005); Bertsimas (2004)

368 Ahuja, Magnanti, and Orlin 1993 Network Flows: Theory, Applications and Algorithms Book Optimization Ford (1962) (network)

348 Buzacott and Shanthikumar 1993 Stochastic models of manufacturing systems Book Optimization Law and Kelton (2000); Sperman (1990)

338 Churchill 1979 A paradigm for developing better measures of marketing constructs Journal of Marketing Research Empirical methods Armstrong and Overton (1977)

337 Baron and Kenny 1986The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological

research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations

Journal of Personality and Social

PsychologyEstimation Podsakoff et al. (2003)

337 Sterman 1989Modelling managerial ehavior: Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic

decision-making experimentManagement Science Optimization

Forrester (1961); Lee, Padmanabhan, and Whang

(1997a)

331 Glover 1989 Tabu search—part I ORSA Journal on computing Optimization Glover (1986); Glover (1990)

319 Steuer 1986 Multiple criteria optimization: Theory, Computation and Applications Book Optimization Zeleny (1982)

308 Puterman 1994 Markov decision processes: discrete stochastic dynamic programming Book Optimization Zipkin (2000); Bellman (1957)

305 Dantzig 1963 Linear Programming and Extensions Book Optimization Ford (1962); Dantzig (1960)

294 Kleinrock 1976 Queueing systems Book Optimization Neuts (1981); Whitt (1983)

288 Bollen 1989 Structural Equations with Latent Variables Book Estimation Anderson and Gerbing (1988)

285 Geoffrion and Graves 1974 Lagrangian Relaxation for Integer ProgrammingMathematical Programming

StudyOptimization Held (1974); Fisher (1981)

280 Fisher 1981The Lagrangian relaxation method for solving integer programming

problemsManagement Science Optimization

Geoffrion and Graves (1974); Nemhauser and

Wolsey (1988)

276Flynn, Sakakibara, Schroeder,

Bates, and Flynn 1990 Empirical research methods in operations management

Journal of Operations

ManagementEmpirical methods Nunnally (1978)

276 Gross and Harris 1974 Fundamentals of Queueing Theory Book Optimization Kleinrock (1976)

275 Rockafellar 1970 Convex Analysis Book Optimization Banker et al. (1984); Bazaraa (1993)

270 Glover and Laguna 1997 Tabu search Book Optimization Glover (1986)

267 Bellman 1957 Dynamic Programming Book Optimization Puterman (1994)

266 Neuts 1981Matrix-Geometric Solutions in Stochastic Models: An Algorithmic

ApproachBook Optimization Sperman (1990)

264 Martello and Toth 1990 Knapsack problems: algorithms and computer implementations Book Optimization Gilmore (1961)

263 Hu and Bentler 1999Cut off criteria for fit indexes in covariance structure analysis:

Conventional criteria versus new alternatives

Structural Equation Modelling: A

Multidisciplinary JournalEstimation Fornell and Larcker (1981)

262 Glaser and Strauss 1967 The Discovery of Grounded Theory: Strategies for Qualitative Research Book Empirical methods Eisenhardt (1989)

Panel B: Specific Functional Contributions

737 Barney 1991 Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage Journal of Management Strategy/Comp AdvTeece, Pisano, and Shuen (1997); Wernerfelt

(1984)

681 Lee, Padmanabhan, and Whang 1997 Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect Management Science SC/CoordinationChen, Drezner, Ryan, and Simchi-Levi (2000);

Sterman (1989)

632 Silver, Pyke, and Peterson 1998 Inventory Management and Production Planning and Scheduling Book Inventory Khouja (1999); Hadley and Whitin (1963)

593 Hadley and Whitin 1963 Analysis of Inventory Systems Book Inventory Silver et al. (1998); Silver and Peterson (1985)

566 Wagner and Whitin 1958 Dynamic version of the economic lot size model Management Science Inventory Silver and Peterson (1985); Elmaghraby (1978)

538 Hayes and Wheelwright 1984 Restoring our competitive edge: competing through manufacturing Book Strategy/Comp Adv Skinner (1969); Swamidass (1987)

511 Porter 1980 Competitive strategy: Techniques for analyzing industries and competition Book Strategy/Comp Adv Porter (1985); Hayes and Wheelwright (1984)

486 Conway, Maxwell, and Miller 1967 Theory of Scheduling Book Scheduling Baker (1974); Blackstone (1982)

485 Fisher 1997 What is the right supply chain for your product? Harvard Business Review SC/Design Lee (2002); Frohlich and Westbrook (2001)

478 Kahneman and Tversky 1979 Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under riskEconometrica: Journal of the

Econometric SocietySC/Risk Schweitzer (2000); Pratt (1964)

473 Womack, Jones, and Roos 1990 Machine that changed the world Book Process improvement Shah (2003); Ohno (1988)

472 Baker 1974 Introduction to sequencing and scheduling Book Scheduling Johnson (1954); Conway et al. (1967)

468 Zipkin 2000 Foundations of inventory management Book Inventory Clark and Scarf (1960); Puterman (1994)

459 Porter 1985 Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance Book Strategy/Comp Adv Barney (1991); Porter (1980)

450 Dyer and Singh 1998The relational view: Cooperative strategy and sources of

interorganizational competitive advantageAcademy of Management Review Strategy/Comp Adv Barney (1991); Williamson (1985)

445 Teece, Pisano, and Shuen 1997 Dynamic capabilities and strategic management Strategic Management Journal Strategy/Comp Adv Barney (1991); Eisenhardt (2000)

444 Frohlich and Westbrook 2001 Arcs of integration: an international study of supply chain strategiesJournal of Operations

ManagementSC/Coordination Flynn, Huo, and Zhao (2010); Vickery (2003)

416 Williamson 1975Markets and Hierarchies: Analysis and Antitrust Implications: A Study in

the Economics of Internal OrganizationBook Strategy/Comp Adv Williamson (1985); Coase (1937)

404 Wernerfelt 1984 A resource‐based view of the firm Strategic Management Journal Strategy/Comp Adv Barney (1991); Prahalad and Hamel (1990)

373 Lee, So, and Tang 2000 The value of information sharing in a two-level supply chain Management Science Inventory Gavirneni (1999); Cachon and Fisher (2000)

357 Clark and Scarf 1960 Optimal policies for a multi-echelon inventory problem Management Science Inventory Zipkin (2000); Sherbrooke (1968)

356 Cachon and Lariviere 2005Supply chain coordination with revenue-sharing contracts: strengths and

limitationsManagement Science SC/Coordination Lee et al. (2000); Frohlich and Westbrook (2001)

351 Cohen and Levinthal 1990 Absorptive capacity: A new perspective on learning and innovation Administrative Science Quarterly Process improvement Kogut (1992); March (1991)

339 Petruzzi and Dada 1999 Pricing and the newsvendor problem: A review with extensions Operations Research Inventory Khouja (1999); Elmaghraby (2003)

338 Williamson 1985 The economic institutions of capitalism Book Strategy/Comp Adv Dyer and Singh (1998); Williamson (1975)

332 Schonberger 1982 Japanese manufacturing techniques: Nine hidden lessons in simplicity Book Process improvement Monden (1983a); Schonberger (1986)

327 Lee et al. 1997 The bullwhip effect in supply chains Sloan Management Review Inventory Chen et al. (2000)

324 Flynn, Huo, and Zhao 2010The impact of supply chain integration on performance: A contingency and

configuration approach

Journal of Operations

ManagementSC/Coordination

Frohlich and Westbrook (2001); Podsakoff et al.

(2003)

322 Clarke and Wright 1964 Scheduling of vehicles from a central depot to a number of delivery points Operations research Scheduling Solomon (1987); Lin (1973)

316 Thompson 1967 Organizations in action: Social science bases of administrative theory Book Strategy/Org Theory Galbraith (1973); March (1958)

308 Cachon and Fisher 2000 Supply chain inventory management and the value of shared information Management Science SC/Coordination Lee et al. (2000); Frohlich and Westbrook (2001)

307Chen, Drezner, Ryan, and

Simchi-Levi 2000

Quantifying the bullwhip effect in a simple supply chain: The impact of

forecasting, lead times, and informationManagement Science SC/Coordination Lee et al. (1997a); Lee et al. (2000)

303 Mentzer et al. 2001 Defining supply chain management Journal of Business Logistics SC/Design Cooper (1997); Chen and Paulraj (2004)

294 Pasternack 1985 Optimal pricing and return policies for perishable commodities Marketing Science Inventory Tsay (1999); Cachon (2003)

294 Chen and Paulraj 2004Towards a theory of supply chain management: The constructs and

measurements

Journal of Operations

ManagementSC/Design Podsakoff et al. (2003); Mentzer et al. (2001)

293 Seuring and Müller 2008From a literature review to a conceptual framework for sustainable supply

chain managementJournal of Cleaner Production SC/Risk Carter (2008); Zhu (2004)

287 Monden 1983 Toyota production system: An Integrated Approach to Just-In-Time Book Process improvement Schonberger (1982); Spearman (1990)

286 Morgan and Hunt 1994 The commitment-trust theory of relationship marketing Journal of Marketing SC/Coordination Fornell and Larcker (1981)

284 Silver and Peterson 1985 Decision Systems for Inventory Management and Production Planning Book Inventory Hax (1984); Hadley and Whitin (1963)

283 Sethi and Sethi 1990 Flexibility in manufacturing: a surveyInternational journal of flexible

manufacturing systems

Process

ImprovementGerwin (1993)

282 Prahalad and Hamel 1990 The Core Competence of the Corporation Harvard Business Review Strategy/Comp Adv Wernerfelt (1984)

281 Pfeffer and Salancik 1978 The external control of organizations: A resource dependence perspective Book Strategy/Org Theory Thompson (1967); Dyer and Singh (1998)

279 Clark and Fujimoto 1991Product development performance: Strategy, organization, and

management in the world auto industryBook Strategy/Comp Adv Womack et al. (1990)

270 Tang 2006 Perspectives in supply chain risk managementInternational Journal of

Production EconomicsSC/Risk Chopra (2004)

269 Nelson and Winter 1982 An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change Book Strategy/Comp Adv Kogut (1992)

268 Ferdows and De Meyer 1990Lasting improvements in manufacturing performance: in search of a new

theory

Journal of Operations

ManagementProcess improvement Skinner (1969); Miller (1994)

267Kleindorfer, Singhal, and

Wassenhove 2005 Managing disruption risks in supply chains

Production and Operations

ManagementSC/Risk

Kleindorfer, Singhal, and Wassenhove (2005);

Yano and Lee (1995)

267 Tomlin 2006On the value of mitigation and contingency strategies for managing supply

chain disruption risksManagement Science SC/Risk Chopra (2004); Hendricks (2005)

265 Yano and Lee 1995 Lot sizing with random yields: A review Operations Research Inventory Tomlin (2006); Porteus (1986)

264 Tirole 1988 The theory of industrial organization Book Strategy/Comp Adv Jeuland (1983)

262 Gallego and Van Ryzin 1994Optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite

horizonsManagement Science Inventory Elmaghraby (2003); Talluri (2004)

Freq

*Author(s) Year Title Source

Knowledge

AreaHighly Co-cited With

Panel A: General Methodological Contributions

1281Charnes, Cooper,

and Rhodes

197

8

Measuring the efficiency of decision making

units

European Journal of

Operational

Research

EstimationBanker, Charnes, and Cooper

(1984); Farrell (1957)

1205 Garey and Johnson 197

9

Computers and Intractability: A Guide to

the Theory of NP-completenessBook Optimization

Graham, Lawler, Lenstra, and

Kan (1979); Nemhauser and

Wolsey (1988)

1011

Hair, Black, Babin,

Anderson, and

Tatham

197

9Multivariate data analysis Book Estimation Fornell and Larcker (1981)

976 Yin 199

4Case study research: design and methods Book

Empirical

methodsEisenhardt (1989)

954 Nunnally 196

7Psychometric Theory Book Estimation

Fornell and Larcker (1981);

Flynn (1990)

Panel B: Specific Functional Contributions

737 Barney 199

1

Firm resources and sustained competitive

advantage

Journal of

Management

Strategy/Co

mp Adv

Teece, Pisano, and Shuen

(1997); Wernerfelt (1984)

681

Lee,

Padmanabhan, and

Whang

199

7

Information distortion in a supply chain:

The bullwhip effect

Management

Science

SC/Coordinat

ion

Chen, Drezner, Ryan, and

Simchi-Levi (2000); Sterman

(1989)

632Silver, Pyke, and

Peterson

199

8

Inventory Management and Production

Planning and SchedulingBook Inventory

Khouja (1999); Hadley and

Whitin (1963)

593 Hadley and Whitin196

3Analysis of Inventory Systems Book Inventory

Silver et al. (1998); Silver and

Peterson (1985)

566Wagner and

Whitin

195

8

Dynamic version of the economic lot size

model

Management

ScienceInventory

Silver and Peterson (1985);

Elmaghraby (1978)

Prevalent Topic CategoriesMethods:• optimization (linear/non-linear programming, dynamic programming, analytical hierarchy process, Markov

models, network analysis, game theory)• estimation (probability theory, psychometrics, DEA, model estimation, SEM, forecasting, simulation)• empirical methods (data collection, common method bias, measurement issues, case study methods, etc.)

Functional areas:• organizational theories (includes systems theories)• queuing • strategy (with sub-groups of competitive advantage and organizational theory)• inventory (includes pricing)• scheduling (includes scheduling of production, workforce, projects)• process improvement (lean, quality management, productivity factors, facility layout, org learning)• supply chain management (design, integration, governance, risk, and sustainability)• logistics (traffic, location decisions, distribution design, networks, warehousing, and routing problems)• decision theory (decision analysis)

Top 100 Most Co-Cited Documents

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

100

200

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400

500

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800

% o

f to

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Títu

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ixo

Average Number Co-Citations Standard Deviation Percentage of Total

Top 100: Documents by Decade

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Top 100 Documents by Decade - Methods

Optimization Estimation Empirical methods

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Top 100 Documents by Decade – Functional Topics

Strategy Inventory Process improvement Scheduling Supply Chain

Bursts Within Top 100 Documents

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

3 7 11 14 22 23 23

Decade / Number of Journals Existing

Bursts

Bursts Begun

Cumulative

• Burst occurs when a document received a sharp surge in co-citations over a specific period

• Indicates rapid and sustained increase in scholarly attention from the community

• Beginning and end period defined when the rate of co-citations exceeds a threshold

• Burst strength is a measure of intensity in the rate of co-citation arrivals over the burst period

• Signals hot topics and how the further development of a discipline is being shaped

• Results derived using Kleinberg’s algorithm, set at the default criteria (Kleinberg, 2003).

Burst Characteristics

R² = 0,2912

0

5

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35

40

45

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

s si

nce

do

cum

ent

was

pu

blis

hed

Year burst began

Burst Lag

R² = 0,8705

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

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40

45

50

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Bu

rst

du

rati

on

(ye

ars

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n-g

oin

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red

)

Year burst began

Burst Duration

On-Going BurstsAuthors Str Pub Beg End Title Source TopicPodsakoff and Organ 19.22 1986 2010 Ongoing Self-reports in organizational research: Problems and prospects Journal of Management Empirical methods

Dyer and Singh 31.33 1998 2011 OngoingThe relational view: Cooperative strategy and sources of interorganizational

competitive advantageAcademy of Management ReviewStrategy/Comp Adv

Mentzer et al. 21 2001 2011 Ongoing Defining Supply Chain Management Journal of Business Logistics SC/Design

Chen and Paulraj 30.68 2004 2011 Ongoing Towards a theory of supply chain management: the constructs and measurementsJournal of Operations

ManagementSC/Design

Tang 36.62 2006 2011 Ongoing Perspectives in supply chain risk management Intl. J. of Production Economics SC/Risk

Fornell and Larcker 46.14 1981 2012 OngoingEvaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and

measurement errorJournal of Marketing Research Estimation

Baron and Kenny 20.82 1986 2012 OngoingThe moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research:

Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerationsJ. of Personality and Social Psych. Estimation

Podsakoff et al. 123.64 2003 2012 OngoingCommon method biases in behavioral research: a critical review of the literature

and recommended remediesJournal of Applied Psychology Empirical methods

Seuring and Müller 73.39 2008 2012 OngoingFrom a literature review to a conceptual framework for sustainable supply chain

managementJournal of Cleaner Production SC/Sustainability

Frohlich and Westbrook 19.92 2001 2013 2015 Arcs of integration: an international study of supply chain strategiesJournal of Operations

ManagementSC/Integration

Cachon and Lariviere 28.63 2005 2013 Ongoing Supply chain coordination with revenue-sharing contracts: strengths and limitationsManagement Science SC/Integration

Tomlin 43.1 2006 2013 OngoingOn the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain

Disruption RisksManagement Science SC/Risk

Flynn et al. 89.16 2010 2013 OngoingThe impact of supply chain integration on performance: A contingency and

configuration approach

Journal of Operations

ManagementSC/Integration

Miles and Huberman 16.44 1994 2014 Ongoing Qualitative data analysis: An expanded sourcebook Book Empirical methods

Voss et al. 38.04 2002 2014 Ongoing Case research in operations management Intl. J. of Operations & Prod. Mgt.Empirical methods

Armstrong and Overton 30.79 1977 2015 Ongoing Estimating nonresponse bias in mail surveys Journal of Marketing Research Estimation

Anderson and Gerbing 6.97 1988 2015 2016Structural equation modeling in practice: A review and recommended two-step

approachPsychological Bulletin Estimation

Hu and Bentler 33.59 1999 2015 OngoingCutoff criteria for fit indexes in covariance structure analysis: Conventional criteria

versus new alternatives

Structural Equation Modeling: A

Multidisciplinary JournalEstimation

Eisenhardt 21.47 1989 2016 Ongoing Building theories from case study research Academy of Management ReviewEmpirical methods

Barney 10.61 1991 2016 2017 Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage Journal of Management Strategy/Comp Adv

Bursts by Content Area

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Burst Frequency

Optimization Estimation Empirical methods

Strategy Inventory Scheduling

Process improvement Supply Chain

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Optimization Estimation Empiricalmethods

Strategy Inventory Scheduling Processimprovement

Supply Chain

Avg duration (years) Avg strength

Top 50 Most Co-Cited Docs Each DecadeFQ % Author Year Cat FQ % Author Year Cat FQ % Author Year Cat FQ % Author Year Cat FQ % Author Year Cat FQ % Author Year Cat FQ % Author Year

4 1% Arrow KJ 1951 O 8 1%Balas E 1964 O 16 1% Dantzig GB 1960O 38 1% Lasdon LS 1970OT 74 1% Checkland P 1981 S 129 1%Graham RL 1979SCM 211 1% Zhu QH 20044 1% Cramer H 1946 O 10 1%Churchman CW 1957 Q 18 1% Little JDC 1961O 46 2% Ignizio JP 1976O 89 2% Neuts M 1981 OT 146 2%Sterman JD 1989SCM 247 2% Chen IJ 2004

13 5% Feller W 1950 O 35 4%Charnes A 1961 S 53 4% Conway RL 1967S 91 3% Conway RL 1967EST 236 4% Charnes A 1978 O 398 4%Garey MR 1979EMP 678 4% Podsakoff PM 20035 2% Fry TC 1928 O 14 2%Wolfe P 1959 I 24 2% Wagner HM 1958O 53 2% Geoffrion AM 1972PI 121 2% Monden Y 1983 I 182 2%Zipkin PH 2000STR 305 2% Teece DJ 19975 2% Wald A 1950 O 12 1%Dantzig GB 1955 EST 21 2% Feller W 1966D 49 2% Lee SM 1972O 96 2% Fisher ML 1981 O 162 2%Glover F 1997O 267 2% Silver EA 19985 2% Mckinsey JCC 1952 O 11 1%Balinski ML 1965 O 21 2% Geoffrion AM 1972O 49 2% Neuts M 1981I 96 2% Hax AC 1984 OT 162 2%Holland J 1975EST 261 2% Baron RM 19864 1% Williams JD 1954 O 8 1%Everett H 1963 STR 16 1% Ackoff RI 1970O 38 1% Karp RM 1972FL 73 1% King JR 1982 I 127 1%Clark AJ 1960SCM 209 1% Chopra S 20045 2% Arrow KJ 1951 O 13 2%Gilmore PC 1963 O 23 2% Barlow RE 1965O 52 2% Fisher ML 1981S 109 2% French S 1982 O 168 2%Nemhauser GL 1988SCM 293 2% Cachon GP 20057 3% Dvoretzky A 1952 O 22 3%Dantzig GB 1963 O 34 3% Ross SM 1970EST 81 3% Ross SM 1970O 159 3% Silver EA 1985 D 272 3%Saaty T 1980EST 380 2% Anderson JC 19884 1% Dvoretzky A 1952 O 9 1%Charnes A 1959 Q 18 1% Takacs L 1962O 43 2% Ford L 1962EST 78 1% Farrell MJ 1957 EST 139 1%Anderson JC 1988PI 224 1% Cohen WM 19908 3% Whitin TM 1953 O 23 3%Howard R 1960 O 40 3% Zangwill WI 1969I 87 3% Hadley 1963D 197 3% Saaty T 1980 SCM 314 3%Lee HL 1997EMP 541 3% Armstrong JS 19774 1% Whitin TM 1957 O 11 1%Fiacco AV 1964 O 20 2% Lee SM 1972STR 46 2% Porter ME 1980EST 92 2% Ross SM 1983 EST 158 2%Farrell MJ 1957EST 248 2% Hair JR 19984 1% Cahn AS 1948 Q 9 1%Cox DR 1961 O 18 1% Lasdon LS 1970O 43 2% Cornuejols G 1977S 79 1% Blackstone JH 1982 SCM 140 2%Williamson OE 1975SCM 226 1% Srivastava SK 20076 2% Chandler RE 1958 O 18 2%Markowitz HM 1959 S 28 2% Holt CC 1960O 61 2% Held M 1974EST 129 2% Law AM 1991 STR 209 2%Barney J 1991EST 353 2% Banker RD 19845 2% Dantzig GB 1954 O 13 2%Kuhn HW 1951 I 23 2% Hadley G 1963D 52 2% Saaty T 1980O 111 2% Steuer R 1986 SCM 169 2%Fisher ML 1997SCM 293 2% Seuring S 2008

10 4% Hitchcock FL 1941 O 31 4%Morse P 1958 O 41 3% Wagner HM 1969I 89 3% Wagner HM 1958D 205 4% Keeney RL 1976 O 330 4%Goldberg DE 1989EST 599 4% Charnes A 19785 2% Jacobs W 1954 O 14 2%Dantzig GB 1957 O 23 2% Mangasarian OL 1969O 52 2% Lawler E 1976S 114 2% Johnson SM 1954 O 179 2%Kirkpatrick S 1983EMP 305 2% Miles MB 19944 1% Lighthill MJ 1955 O 8 1%Gass SI 1958 O 16 1% Held M 1974OT 37 1% Checkland P 1981Q 71 1% Gross D 1985 SCM 127 1%Lee HL 1997EST 208 1% Farrell MJ 19575 2% Orden A 1956 O 13 2%Nelder JA 1960 O 23 2% Hadley G 1964D 52 2% Keen PGW 1978O 113 2% Goldberg DE 1989 EMP 175 2%Yin RK 1994EMP 305 2% Podsakoff PM 19866 2% Pipes LA 1953 Q 20 2%Little JDC 1963 O 29 2% Morse P 1958O 68 2% Dantzig GB 1963O 137 2% Nemhauser GL 1988 STR 220 2%Hayes RH 1984STR 360 2% Dyer JH 19984 1% Reuschel A 1950 Q 11 1%Miller RG 1960 O 20 2% Balas E 1965OT 47 2% Cyert RM 1963O 94 2% Held M 1974 PI 160 2%Womack JP 1990D 259 2% Saaty T 19804 1% Reuschel A 1950 S 9 1%Lomnicki ZA 1965 L 17 1% Lin S 1965O 42 1% Cohon JL 1978O 76 1% Bazaraa MS 1979 STR 136 1%Wernerfelt B 1984EMP 219 1% Yin RK 20094 1% Reuschel A 1950 S 9 1%Kelley JE 1961 OT 17 1% Cyert RM 1963OT 40 1% March JG 1958O 75 1% Rockafellar RT 1970 STR 133 1%Sethi AK 1990EST 217 1% Hu LT 1999

10 4% Bellman R 1957 O 33 4%Arrow KJ 1958 O 43 3% Ford L 1962O 90 3% Garey MR 1979S 224 4% Baker KR 1974 O 357 4%Silver EA 1998EMP 608 4% Eisenhardt KM 19897 3% Bellman R 1954 EST 22 3%Feller W 1957 O 33 3% Everett H 1963O 80 3% Geoffrion AM 1974I 157 3% Hedley 1963 EST 256 3%Banker RD 1984O 377 2% Garey MR 19794 1% Box GEP 1951 O 8 1%Dantzig GB 1961 O 16 1% Geoffrion AM 1972F 38 1% Box GEP 1976EST 75 1% Nunnally JC 1978 SCM 129 1%Cachon GP 2000S 217 1% Graham RL 1979

21 8% Charnes A 1953 O 41 5%Bellman R 1957 O 76 6% Dantzig GB 1963D 187 7% Keeney RL 1976O 340 6% Garey MR 1979 EST 417 4%Charnes A 1978EST 687 4% Fornell C 19817 3% Charnes A 1954 Q 20 2%Little JDC 1961 O 32 2% Garfinkel RS 1972S 69 2% Baker KR 1974PI 145 3% Schonberger RJ 1982 EMP 252 3%Eisenhardt KM 1989EMP 367 2% Voss C 20024 1% Charnes A 1954 O 10 1%Beale EML 1955 D 18 1% Fishburn PC 1970O 44 2% Ackoff RL 1979O 83 1% Geoffrion AM 1974 O 144 2%Zadeh LA 1965SCM 238 2% Kleindorfer PR 20055 2% Churchman CW 1957 S 12 1%Holt CC 1960 D 22 2% Little JDC 1970L 50 2% Francis RL 1974I 104 2% Hall R 1983 EMP 163 2%Armstrong JS 1977D 271 2% Kahneman D 19798 3% Dantzig GB 1956 O 23 3%Bellman R 1962 O 34 3% Howard R 1960O 86 3% Wagner HM 1969S 173 3% Conway RL 1967 EST 295 3%Law AM 1991STR 511 3% Barney J 19916 2% Dantzig GB 1951 O 17 2%Balas E 1965 Q 25 2% Cox DR 1961O 60 2% Ackoff RL 1979O 127 2% Glover F 1989 STR 188 2%Porter ME 1980EST 331 2% Nunnally JC 19786 2% Dantzig GB 1955 O 16 2%Dantzig GB 1960 O 25 2% Charnes A 1961I 59 2% Peterson R 1979I 126 2% Wagner HM 1958 I 187 2%Hedley 1963SCM 330 2% Frohlich MT 20015 2% Dantzig GB 1951 I 12 1%Arrow KJ 1951 L 22 2% Kuehn AA 1963L 52 2% Erlenkotter D 1978STR 105 2% Porter ME 1980 EST 164 2%Fornell C 1981I 286 2% Zipkin PH 20004 1% Dantzig GB 1951 O 10 1%Ford L 1962 F 18 1% Box GEP 1970O 45 2% Barlow RE 1965FL 87 2% King JR 1980 SCM 146 2%Chen F 2000SCM 247 2% Mentzer JT 20014 1% Dantzig GB 1955 O 10 1%Gilmore PC 1961 L 18 1% Efroymson MA 1966O 45 2% Johnson LA 1974L 84 1% Bodin L 1983 STR 145 2%Porter ME 1985SCM 246 2% Tomlin B 20064 1% Ford LR 1957 G 9 1%Luce RD 1957 L 17 1% Geoffrion AM 1974Q 42 1% Kleinrock L 1975O 78 1% Papadimitriou CH 1982 STR 138 1%Teece DJ 1997O 223 1% Markowitz H 19524 1% Kuhn HW 1951 O 11 1%Glover F 1965 L 20 2% Revelle C 1970D 46 2% Pratt JW 1964PI 93 2% Schonberger RJ 1986 D 158 2%Keeney RL 1976STR 255 2% Wernerfelt B 19844 1% Vajda S 1956 O 9 1%Held M 1962 L 18 1% Bellmore M 1968S 44 2% Holt CC 1960S 82 1% Baker KR 1990 S 143 2%Johnson SM 1954SCM 231 1% Lee HL 20004 1% Wagner HM 1956 EST 9 1%Savage LJ 1954 O 18 1% Bellman R 1962D 44 2% Raiffa H 1968I 79 1% Karmarkar US 1987 SCM 142 2%Lee HL 2000O 229 1% Petruzzi NC 19994 1% Leavitt HJ 1951 Q 9 1%Gaver DP 1959 OT 16 1% Ackoff RL 1972Q 39 1% Gross D 1974S 75 1% Panwalkar SS 1977 EST 131 1%Hair JF 1998PI 217 1% Womack JP 19904 1% Bailey NTJ 1954 O 9 1%Derman C 1962 L 18 1% Glover F 1974L 43 2% Eilon S 1971O 79 1% Glover F 1990 S 141 2%Pinedo M 1995EST 227 1% Hair JF 20064 1% Burke PJ 1956 O 9 1%Ford LR 1958 S 17 1% Held M 1962G 40 1% von Neumann J 1947PI 76 1% Hammer M 1993 O 134 1%Steuer R 1986SCM 217 1% Carter CR 20085 2% Jackson RRP 1954 O 15 2%Malcolm DG 1959 O 24 2% Rockafellar RT 1970O 57 2% Zionts S 1976O 123 2% Kirkpatrick S 1983 EST 186 2%Forrester JW 1961SCM 316 2% Fisher ML 19976 2% Kendall DG 1953 Q 15 2%Gaver DP 1962 O 24 2% Geoffrion AM 1974EST 59 2% Barlow RE 1975STR 126 2% Hayes RH 1984 O 187 2%Buzacott JA 1993SCM 324 2% Flynn BB 20104 1% Kendall DG 1951 I 11 1%Brown RG 1959 D 18 1% Raiffa H 1968S 46 2% Orlicky J 1975STR 92 2% Porter ME 1985 O 154 2%Ahuja RK 1993SCM 247 2% Tang CS 20066 2% Koopmans T 1951 Q 18 2%Cobham A 1954 O 28 2% Bellman R 1957O 62 2% Garfinkel RS 1972EST 132 2% Banker RD 1984 EST 220 2%Nunnally JC 1978SCM 357 2% Lee HL 19974 1% Manne AS 1956 O 11 1%Charnes A 1963 O 21 2% Hadley G 1962D 49 2% Zeleny M 1982PI 96 2% Womack JP 1990 I 162 2%Wagner HM 1958EMP 259 2% Yin RK 20034 1% Modigliani F 1955 O 8 1%Charnes A 1958 O 16 1% Duffin R 1967L 38 1% Clarke G 1964S 74 1% Elmaghraby SE 1978 S 128 1%Baker KR 1974EMP 209 1% Eisenhardt KM 2007

O 8 1%Ford LR 1956 D 16 1% Keeney RL 1976D 37 1% Little JDC 1970STR 71 1% Hayes RH 1988 STR 127 1%Prahalad CK 1990SCM 205 1% Morgan RM 1994O 8 1%Ford LR 1957 S 16 1% Johnson SM 1954D 37 1% Kahneman D 1979PI 70 1% Porteus EL 1986 STR 205 1% Porter ME 1985S 8 1%Giglio RJ 1964 L 16 1% Held M 1971 SCM 205 1% Williamson OE 1975O 8 1%Hadley G 1964 L 16 1% Larson RC 1972S 8 1%Johnson SM 1954 L 16 1% Little JDC 1963D 8 1%Raiffa H 1961 G 16 1% Luce RD 1957Q 8 1%Keilson J 1960EST 8 1%Schlaifer R 1959I 8 1%Wagner HM 1958OT 8 1%March JG 1958Q 8 1%White H 1958Q 8 1%Takacs L 1955Q 8 1%Kendall DG 1953Q 8 1%Kendall DG 1951O 8 1%Lanchester FW 1916

Top 50 by decade: Methods Trends

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General Methodological Trends

Optimization Empirical Estimation

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Optimization 42% 67% 29% 42% 31% 24% 8%

Empirical 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 11%

Estimation 10% 5% 5% 6% 13% 21% 25%

Total 52% 72% 34% 48% 44% 51% 44%

Top 50 by decade: Functional Trends

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Specific Functional Trends

Decision Theory Inventory

Logistics Org Theory

Process Improvement Queuing

Scheduling Supply Chain Management

Strategy

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Decision Theory 1% 1% 9% 19% 7% 5% 4%

Inventory 10% 4% 6% 8% 10% 7% 2%

Logistics 21% 0% 22% 6% 1% 0% 0%

Org Theory 1% 1% 4% 4% 1% 3% 0%

Process Improvement 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 2% 3%

Queuing 8% 17% 8% 3% 1% 0% 0%

Scheduling 5% 5% 14% 9% 16% 6% 2%Supply Chain Management 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 34%

Strategy 0% 0% 2% 2% 6% 14% 12%

Total 48% 28% 66% 52% 56% 49% 56%

“Top 50” Documents Cited in 3+ Decades 263 unique articles across 7 decades

Title Author Year 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Total

Cites

Dynamic version of the economic lot size model Wagner HM 1958 8 24 89 126 162 409

Flows in networks Ford L 1962 10 43 43 96

Analysis of inventory systems Hadley G 1963 23 87 157 187 454

Nonlinear Programming Kuhn HW 1951 4 13 23 76 116

Computers and intractability: A guide to the theory of NP-completeness Garey MR 1979 90 340 398 377 1205

Validation of subgradient optimization Held M 1974 16 61 94 171

Lagrangean relaxation for integer programming Geoffrion AM 1974 24 80 83 187

Optimal two‐and three‐stage production schedules with setup times included Johnson SM 1954 8 16 114 143 281

Planning Production, Inventories, and Work Force Holt CC 1960 12 28 44 84

Theory of Scheduling Conway RL 1967 53 91 173 317

Introduction to sequencing and scheduling Baker KR 1974 69 224 128 421

Decision analysis with multiple conflicting objectives Keeney RL 1976 16 187 205 158 566

The analytic hierarchy process Saaty T 1980 52 197 272 259 780

An introduction to probability theory and its applications Feller W 1950 13 22 21 56

Psychometric Theory Nunnally JC 1978 75 220 331 626

Competitive strategy Porter ME 1980 46 105 188 339

Competitive advantage Porter ME 1985 92 145 205 442

Machine that changed the world Womack JP 1990 96 160 217 473

The measurement of productive efficiency Farrell MJ 1957 78 158 208 444

Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data

envelopment analysis Banker RD 1984 132 256 353 741

Measuring the efficiency of decision making units Charnes A 1978 236 417 599 1252

Other Observations

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1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Per

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Books

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-5,0

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1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Age of average cited doc from beginningof decade

Percent of cited docs published in priordecades

Top 200 for 2000s and 2010s

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

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2000s (22389) 2010s (38226)

Perc

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General Methodological Contributions

Optimization Empirical Estimation

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2000s (22389) 2010s (38226)

Perc

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Specific Functional Contributons

Decision Theory Inventory

Logistics Org Theory

Process Improvement Queuing

Scheduling Supply Chain Management

Strategy

Empirical Methods Sub-Topics

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70%

Survey methods Qualitative methods Measurement issues General

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Empirical Methods

2000s (1628) 2010s (5469)

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Survey methods Qualitative methods Measurement issues General

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Empirical Methods

2000s (1628) 2010s (5469)

Estimation Sub-Topics

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DEA Data models Simulation

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Estimation

2000s (2782) 2010s (4846)

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DEA Data models Simulation

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Estimation

2000s (2782) 2010s (4846)

Process Improvement Sub-Topics

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Process Improvement

2000s (2576) 2010s (1739)

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Process Improvement

2000s (2576) 2010s (1739)

SCM Sub-Topics

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Design Governance Integration Sustainability Risk Other

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Supply Chain Management

2000s (3519) 2010s (14023)

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Design Governance Integration Sustainability Risk Other

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Supply Chain Management

2000s (3519) 2010s (14023)

Where is research now

and where is it headed?

An OM/SCM view

• Relevance-Rigor trade-off?

• Methods myopia

“Value” and “Veracity”

• Sustainability, Healthcare, Humanitarian,…

• Supply chain (relationships, finance, ….)

• Data, technology, and digitalizationTopics

• Analytical

• Empirical (e.g., “interventionist”)

• Data sourcesMethods

• Responsible Research in Business & Management https://www.rrbm.network/

• AACSB and “impact”Movements

Personal Observations

Relevance and Rigor

• Is it interesting?

• Is it true?

• The need for humility• Pride in rigor

• The perfect study

• Elusiveness of proof

• The importance of replication

• Type 1 and Type 2 errors

• Science vs Practice

Certainty

Cost

Research Trade-offs

Methodological Trends

• Rigor envy

• Editors’ incentives

• Gatekeepers vs Innovators

• Methods myopia• Qualitative methods: deduction, induction, abduction (and serendipity)

• Experiments: vignettes, deception, and sample size

• Surveys/primary data: perception, bias

• Archival/secondary data: proxies, econometrics, endogeneity, robustness

NotWrong

BeyondDoubt

Rigor Spectrum

Conclusions

• Content• A relatively few articles exert strong influence over the field

• Recent growth in supply chain focus

• Responsive to technology and geo-economic trends

• Methods• Importance of training

• New data sources

Thank you!