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BOSTON | ATLANTA | CHARLOTTE | CHICAGO | DETROIT | LAS VEGAS | PORTLAND | SAN FRANCISCO
EASTERN MICHIGAN UNIVERSITYBOARD OF REGENTS
QUARTER ENDING SEPTEMBER 30, 2018INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS
November 9, 2018
Page
NEPC Update 3
Key Themes and Opportunities 7
Market Outlook 9
Q3 Executive Summary 29
Total Fund Summary 36
Appendix- Goals and Objective- ESG Summary- Market Overview
TABLE OF CONTENTS
54
2
NEPC, LLC
NEPC UPDATE
3
HIGHLIGHTS OF THIRD QUARTER HAPPENINGS AT NEPC
NEPC INSIGHTS
• Taking Stock: Is Technology Driving Low Inflation?
• Taking Stock: Increasing Pension Contributions and Improving Corporate Pension Funding Ratios: Now What?
• NEPC 2018 ESG Flash Poll Results and Infographic
• NEPC 2018 ESG Flash Poll – Healthcare Highlights
• 2018 Second Quarter Market Thoughts
• The Evaluation of Tax Liabilities
• Healthcare Optimistic About Economy But Wary of Volatility and Geopolitical Risks (Healthcare Operating Fund Universe Results/ Infographic)
• Taking Stock: Trouble in Turkey Creates Opportunity in Emerging Markets
• State of the Union: A Look Back on 2018 and What to Expect Moving Forward
• Opportunity Zones: Doing Good in a Tax-Advantaged Way
• Taking Stock: Globalization Backlash: US-China Tariffs are Here to Stay
• Taking Stock: Total Enterprise Management: a 360 View of Investment Strategy
• Market Chatter: Potential End Game for US-China Trade Spat: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly
WEBINAR REPLAYS• NEPC’s Second Quarter 2018 Quarterly Markets Call
To download NEPC’s recent insights and webinar replays, visit: www.NEPC.com/insights
4
HIGHLIGHTS OF THIRD QUARTER HAPPENINGS AT NEPC
NEPC INSIGHTS Revisiting the Global Financial Crisis
• Lessons Learned or Forgotten? A 10-Year Retrospective of the Financial Crisis
• Taking Stock: Ten Years since the Global Financial Crisis, Part 3: Not Too Big toFail
• Healthcare: Using Past Lessons to Meet Present Challenges
• Private Wealth: The New Normal Is Here to Stay
• Taft-Hartley: Pension Plans: The Long and Difficult Road Traveled
• Insurance: Safety Nets Save the Day
• Endowments and Foundations: The 2008 Global Financial Crisis: Looking Back toGet Ahead
• Taking Stock: Will Growth Have the Last Word?
To download NEPC’s recent insights and webinar replays, visit: www.NEPC.com/insights
5
HIGHLIGHTS OF THIRD QUARTER HAPPENINGS AT NEPCRECENT UPDATES• It is with sadness we inform you of the passing away of former NEPC partner, Duane "Butch" Hess. He died
peacefully in his sleep on August 19. Duane joined NEPC in 1990 and was elected into our partnership in 1993, arole he held until 2006, when he retired to spend more time traveling, enjoying the arts and the city he loved somuch, Boston. He leaves behind his long-time partner Carmela Cattuti and two sons, Brian and Steven. For thosewho knew him, he was full of life with a smile for everyone. He joked that he was the first president of the NEPCRetired Partners Club (a title he was very honored to hold). He was frequently seen at NEPC’s Annual InvestmentConferences and would occasionally stop by the office to say hello and check in. He will be sadly missed butremembered with great fondness.
• SAVE THE DATE! NEPC will host our 24th Annual Investment Conference on May 7th and 8th, 2019 at the BostonPark Plaza. More details to come!
NEPC GIVES BACK• NEPC sponsored a volunteer day with the Greater
Boston chapter of Habitat for Humanity. Our volunteersspent their day helping to build homes for low-incomefamilies in need of decent and affordable housing.
• NEPC employees volunteered at the Greater BostonFood Bank (GBFB) and Oregon Food Bank on October4th. GBFB is the largest hunger-relief organization inNew England and among the largest food banks in thecountry. The food banks are committed to increasingfood distribution to provide at least one meal a day toevery person in need, while supporting healthy livesand healthy communities.
6
NEPC, LLC
KEY THEMES AND OPPORTUNITIES
7
CURRENT THEMES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Current Opportunities
Extended US Economic Cycle
Synchronized Economic Resurgence
China Transitions
Globalization Backlash
Trim US Equity Gains
Overweight Non-US Developed Market Equities
Maintain a Market Overweight to Emerging Market Equities
Raise Safe-Haven Fixed Income Exposure
Fund MLP/Midstream Energy Exposure From Risk Assets
Fund Emerging Local Debt
Add Macro Hedge Funds
Add Long Volatility Exposure
Key Market Themes
8
NEPC, LLC
MARKET OUTLOOK
9
Macro Equity Credit Real Assets
USDollar VIX US
10-YrS&P500
MSCIEAFE
MSCIEM
USAgg.
High Yield
DollarEMD Oil Gold REITS
0.7% -4.0 20 bps 7.7% 1.4% -1.1% 0.0% 2.4% 1.9% -1.2% -4.8% 0.7%
• US equities increased during the quarter, supported by strongmacroeconomic data and a tight labor market
• Emerging market equities broadly declined with ongoing currencyweakness and trade tensions weighing on sentiment
• The Federal Reserve hiked rates for the third time this year and isexpected to hike rates again in December
PERFORMANCE OVERVIEWQ3 Market Summary
Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Dollar (DXY Index), VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), US 10-Year (US 10-Year Treasury Yield), S&P 500 (USEquity), MSCI EAFE Index (International Developed Equity), MSCI Emerging Markets (Emerging Markets Equity), US Agg (Barclays US Aggregate BondIndex), High Yield (Barclays US High Yield Index), Dollar EMD (JPM Emerging Market Bond Index), Crude Oil (WTI Crude Oil Spot), Gold (Gold Price Spot),and REITs (NAREIT Composite Index).
10
TRAILING ANNUAL INDEX PERFORMANCE
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays, S&P, Russell, MSCI, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, Alerian, NAREIT
Equity
Sep‐18 Q3 YTD 1 YR 3 YR 5 YR 10 YRMSCI ACWI 0.4% 4.3% 3.8% 9.8% 13.4% 8.7% 8.2%S&P 500 0.6% 7.7% 10.6% 17.9% 17.3% 13.9% 12.0%Russell 1000 0.4% 7.4% 10.5% 17.8% 17.1% 13.7% 12.1%Russell 2000 ‐2.4% 3.6% 11.5% 15.2% 17.1% 11.1% 11.1%Russell 2500 ‐1.5% 4.7% 10.4% 16.2% 16.1% 11.4% 12.0%MSCI EAFE 0.9% 1.4% ‐1.4% 2.7% 9.2% 4.4% 5.4%MSCI EM ‐0.5% ‐1.1% ‐7.7% ‐0.8% 12.4% 3.6% 5.4%
Credit
Sep‐18 Q3 YTD 1 YR 3 YR 5 YR 10 YRBC Global Agg ‐0.9% ‐0.9% ‐2.4% ‐1.3% 2.0% 0.8% 2.9%BC US Agg ‐0.6% 0.0% ‐1.6% ‐1.2% 1.3% 2.2% 3.8%BC Corp Credit ‐0.4% 1.0% ‐2.3% ‐1.2% 3.1% 3.5% 6.4%BC US HY 0.6% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 8.1% 5.5% 9.5%BC Muni ‐0.6% ‐0.2% ‐0.4% 0.3% 2.2% 3.5% 4.8%BC Muni HY ‐0.4% 0.8% 4.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5%BC TIPS ‐1.1% ‐0.8% ‐0.8% 0.4% 2.0% 1.4% 3.3%BC 20+ STRIPS ‐4.4% ‐4.7% ‐8.3% ‐4.1% 1.5% 7.3% 7.4%BC Long Treasuries ‐3.0% ‐2.9% ‐5.8% ‐3.6% 0.7% 4.4% 5.5%BC Long Credit ‐0.6% 1.3% ‐5.2% ‐2.2% 5.2% 5.7% 8.4%BC Govt/Credit 1‐3 Yr ‐0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.7%CS Lev Loan 0.7% 1.9% 4.4% 5.6% 5.4% 4.4% 5.8%JPM EMBI Glob Div 1.5% 2.3% ‐3.0% ‐1.9% 6.0% 5.4% 7.5%JPM GBI‐EM Glob Div 2.6% ‐1.8% ‐8.1% ‐7.4% 5.2% ‐1.7% 2.7%
Real Assets
Sep‐18 Q3 YTD 1 YR 3 YR 5 YR 10 YRBBG Commodity 1.9% ‐2.0% ‐2.0% 2.6% ‐0.1% ‐7.2% ‐6.2%Alerian MLP ‐1.6% 6.6% 5.9% 4.9% 4.4% ‐2.7% 9.2%FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs ‐2.4% 0.8% 1.8% 4.3% 9.0% 9.6% 7.8%
11
US financial conditions remain loose and support steady economic gainsBut a reversal in easy conditions could be fueled from a misstep by the Fed, strong US dollar,increased volatility in the Chinese yuan, or an acceleration in US inflation. With further rate hikeslikely in 2019, an overconfident Fed could “surprise” the markets with a more aggressive posture.
We are evaluating market metrics such as the yield curve that would cause usto shift to a more defensive outlook
Should yield curve steepness turn negative and economic metrics show some weakness, ourrecommendation will be to materially increase safe-haven fixed income and reduce equityexposure. In addition, safe-haven fixed income appears more attractive following recent increasesin US interest rates.
EVALUATION OF KEY ECONOMIC SIGNALS
Source: (Left) Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisSource: (Right) Bloomberg
12
US ECONOMY REMAINS STRONG
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Q42007
Q31990
Q11980
Q21960
Q12001
Q41973
Q41948
Q41969
Q21953
Q31957
Number of QuartersLength of Economic Cycles
The current expansion is tied for the longest by
duration, though cumulative growth
remains well below other historical examples.
Source: Bloomberg
13
US EQUITIES ARE THE OUTLIER IN 2018
Source: Bloomberg
14
VALUE & GROWTH EXHIBIT CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR
Source: Russell, Bloomberg, NEPCShaded area represents growth outperformance
As of September 2018
Post‐2008, growth has outperformed value with record profits and the dominance of FAANG
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
R1000 Growth - Value 5-Year Return Differential
Growth Outperforms
Value Outperforms
15
SECTOR PERFORMANCE INDICATING A TURN
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MSCI USA Cyclical Sectors – Defensive Sectors Return Spread
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg
16
US INTEREST RATES SHIFTED HIGHER IN 2018
Source: Bloomberg
17
Key Market Theme, Jan. 2017 – “Expected path of Fed policy through 2019 matters more than timing of the next hike”
Key Market Theme, Jan. 2018 – “The disconnect between market expectations and Fed signaling has grown but the expected path of Fed policy through 2020 matters more than timing of the next hike”
THE EVOLUTION OF FED GRADUALISM
Source: Bloomberg
18
THE FED IS REDUCING MARKET LIQUIDITY
The Fed’s balance sheet hasshrunk by more than $300billion from its peak of $4.5trillion and will continuedeclining by a max of $50billion a month
The Fed is slowly reducing its balance sheetand the normalization program will likelyhave tightening effects – in the same way thebalance sheet expansion had easing effects
Source: Bloomberg
19
A SHIFT TO TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Barclays Corporate Global Aggregate Yield
Source: Barclays, Bloomberg
20
A LESS SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL ECONOMY
‐2%
‐1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Real Annual GDP Growth
Emerging MarketsUnited StatesEurozoneJapan
Source: Bloomberg
21
THE US CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
‐2.0%
‐1.5%
‐1.0%
‐0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
10‐Year US/German Spread
Source: Bloomberg
22
EM HAS DECLINED, BUT IT COULD BE WORSE
Data Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, NEPC2018 represents returns for 12/29/2017-09/30/2018
23
CURRENCY DETRACTED FROM TOTAL RETURNS
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, NEPC
24
US-CHINA TRADE POLICY
January 2018
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Q3 2018
30% tariff on imported solar panels and taxes on large residential washing machines
Retaliatory tariffs of ~$3B worth of US exports
25% tariff on imported steel and 10% tariff on imported aluminum
25% tariff levied on $50 billion of imports from China
10% tariff on $200 billion of imports from China. Tariffs will be increased to 25% at the end of year.
China responds with tariffs of 25% on $50 billion worth of US exports, with soybeans being a sizable target
China calls the tariffs “a serious attack on international trade”
China responds with tariffs of 5%-10% on $60 billion worth of US exports
FutureUS may announce additional tariffs on $267 billion of imports from China. This would essentially add a tariff to the remaining products that China exports to the US.
China may cut tariffs on non-US goods to reduce the impact of US tariffs. China could further restrict the sale of rare earth elements that are inputs for many end products such as batteries and televisions.
25
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES AND IMPLICATIONS
Outcome Description Implications
Base Case: Elevated Tariffs
A long-term “cold war” in the ongoing “trade battle” between the US and China
- Tariffs and restrictions on trade are implemented – leading to marginally higher inflation and marginally lower growth rates
- Equity and currency volatility is elevated, but valuations may provide attractive investment opportunities
Favorable Case:Negotiated Settlement
The US and China agree to a mutually beneficial pact
- Some tariffs or trade limitations may be implemented, but the pact allows for broader access to local China and US markets for each nation
- Volatility may persist throughout negotiations, though this is the most appealing outcome for global equities
Tail Risks: US – China Trade War
The countries escalate to implementing more severe
protectionist policies
- Results in destabilization of global equity markets and the global economy
- It would likely result in a global recession as economic growth rates are hampered with the potential for stagflation
- Investors are encouraged to rebalance to “safe haven” fixed-income exposure, such as TIPS and government debt
Full-Blown Trade War
Other countries become involved levying additional
tariffs and materially reducing global trade flows
(e.g. 1930s style global trade restrictions)
26
TRADE TENSIONS WEIGHED ON RETURNS
Source: S&P, MSCI, Bloomberg, NEPC
27
ATTRACTIVE VALUATIONS
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg
28
NEPC, LLC
Q3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
29
Market Value 3 Mo Rank YTD Rank 1 Yr Rank 3 Yrs Rank 5 Yrs Rank_
Board of Regents Total Composite $40,422,850 1.2% 38 -0.1% 70 2.2% 36 5.0% 30 3.5% 51Allocation Index 1.8% 13 1.0% 35 4.2% 9 5.6% 19 -- --
XXXXX
Year to Date
Anlzd Ret Rank Anlzd StdDev Rank Sharpe
Ratio Rank_
Board of Regents TotalComposite -0.14% 70 5.19% 98 -0.28 36
Allocation Index 0.99% 35 5.10% 98 -0.07 27XXXXX
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Total Fund Performance Summary
Market Value 3 Mo Rank YTD Rank 1 Yr Rank 3 Yrs Rank 5 Yrs Rank_
Long Term Investment Pool $16,173,143 1.3% 79 -0.1% 96 2.8% 91 7.0% 86 4.9% 89Long Term Allocation Index 1.9% 65 1.1% 84 4.6% 80 8.0% 74 -- --Long Term Balanced Index 1.8% 67 1.1% 83 4.5% 81 8.0% 72 5.7% 75
XXXXX
Composite Performance - The Total Composite returned 1.2% for the quarter and the portfolio is now near flat for the year- The Long Term Investment Pool earned 1.3% for Q3, bringing YTD performance to -0.10%
Allocation Index- The overweight to Fixed Income and Equities due to the strategic decision to preserve liquidity aided performance during the quarter
Active Management - SEG Baxter outperformed the MSCI ACWI ex. USA by 40 bps for the quarter. The outperformance is attributed to their exposures within Consumer Discretionary and due to an underweight to Emerging Markets- Artisan Global Opporunities had a minor pullback for the quarter, primarily due to relative weakness in Energy and Consumer Discretionary holdings
30
Market Value($)
3 Mo(%) Rank YTD
(%) Rank 1 Yr(%) Rank 3 Yrs
(%) Rank 5 Yrs(%) Rank
_
Board of Regents Total Composite 40,422,850 1.2 38 -0.1 70 2.2 36 5.0 30 3.5 51Allocation Index 1.8 13 1.0 35 4.2 9 5.6 19 -- --
InvestorForce Trust Funds >60% Fixed Income Net Median 0.9 0.5 1.6 4.1 3.6Short Term Investment Pool 24,249,707 0.1 -- 0.1 -- 0.1 -- 0.1 -- 0.1 --
91 Day T-Bills 0.5 -- 1.3 -- 1.6 -- 0.9 -- 0.5 --Long Term Investment Pool 16,173,143 1.3 79 -0.1 96 2.8 91 7.0 86 4.9 89
Long Term Allocation Index 1.9 65 1.1 84 4.6 80 8.0 74 -- --Long Term Balanced Index 1.8 67 1.1 83 4.5 81 8.0 72 5.7 75
InvestorForce All E&F < $50mm Net Median 2.3 2.6 6.1 8.9 6.5Total Equity 6,151,494 3.6 50 3.6 51 8.6 53 13.1 41 -- --
MSCI ACWI 4.3 37 3.8 48 9.8 44 13.4 37 8.7 51eV All Global Equity Net Median 3.6 3.7 9.0 12.5 8.8
Total Fixed 5,180,150 0.5 39 -0.5 25 -0.3 32 4.0 38 -- --BBgBarc US Aggregate TR 0.0 52 -1.6 40 -1.2 48 1.3 86 2.2 46
eV Global Fixed Inc Unhedged Net Median 0.1 -2.2 -1.3 3.2 1.9GAA/ Risk Parity 2,927,761 -1.1 88 -5.1 95 -2.4 88 1.5 89 -- --
60% MSCI World (Net) / 40% FTSE WGBI 2.3 29 2.2 19 6.0 19 8.8 23 5.7 30eV Global TAA Net Median 1.6 -0.1 3.5 6.0 3.7
Real Assets 1,913,738 0.4 23 -1.8 69 1.3 92 8.2 23 -- --PIMCO All Asset Index 1.0 14 0.1 55 1.1 95 4.0 68 3.5 23Bloomberg Commodity Index -2.0 76 -2.0 71 2.6 72 -0.1 99 -7.2 67
InvestorForce All E&F Real Assets/Commodities Net Median -0.3 0.8 3.3 5.1 -1.8XXXXX
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Total Fund Performance Summary
Intermediate Term Balanced Index comprised of 50.0% Barclays Intermediate U.S. GV/CR Index and 50.0% BofA ML 1-3 Year Treasury Index.Allocation Index: Used to measure the value add from active management. Calculated as the asset weight from the prior month end mulitiplied by thespecified market index.
31
Asset Allocation vs. Target
Current Policy Current Net AssetAllocation
_
Domestic Equity $1,674,305 10.0% 10.4% 17.6%International Equity $1,094,004 5.0% 6.8% 16.1%Emerging Markets Equity $737,314 5.0% 4.6% 9.2%Global Equity $2,645,871 15.0% 16.4% --Core Fixed Income $2,109,638 5.0% 13.0% 20.1%High Yield -- -- -- 0.8%TIPS -- -- -- 7.5%Multi-sector Fixed Income $792,034 5.0% 4.9% --Non-US Developed Bonds -- -- -- 4.3%Emerging Market Debt -- 5.0% -- 9.3%GAA/Risk Parity $2,927,761 20.0% 18.1% --Hedge Funds -- 10.0% -- 1.0%Absolute Return $2,278,478 10.0% 14.1% --Real Assets $1,913,738 10.0% 11.8% 2.5%Cash -- -- -- 11.6%Total $16,173,143 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
XXXXX
-Asset Allocation vs. Policy Targets analytics are based on the Long Term Investment Pool.
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Asset Allocation vs. Policy Targets
Net Asset Allocation breaksmulti-asset investments likeGAA and Global Equity intotheir underlying asset classesproviding a look through toyour actual asset allocation
32
INVESTMENT MANAGER - DUE DILIGENCE STATUS
Manager Changes/ NEPC DueInvestment Options Announcements Diligence Committee
(Recent Quarter) Recommendations
PIMCO Other: Transition of CEO WatchAll Asset Strategy 8/2018
Acadian Asset Management LLCLoss of Personnel: Acadian names new
Director of Implementation No ActionEmerging Markets Equity 9/2018
33
INVESTMENT MANAGER DUE DILIGENCEInvestment Option Commentary NEPC Rating
PIMCO Rob Arnott, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Research Affiliates, is formally transitioning the title of CEO to Katy Sherrerd, President and COO. Mr. Arnott will continue as Chairman of Research Affiliates, and his portfolio management duties will not change. Specifically, Mr. Arnott will continue as co-portfolio manager of the PIMCO All Asset Fund along with CIO Chris Brightman. This title transition for Ms. Sherrerd appears to be formalizing what has already occurred in practice over the last several years, as she will continue to focus on business functions, governance, and executing key strategic initiatives. NEPC Research anticipates minimal day-to-day change with Katy Sherrerd assuming the CEO role. Additionally, there is no change on the investment side or with portfolio management responsibilities associated with the PIMCO suite of funds. NEPC Research does not have any concerns with this change and does not believe it will have any day-to-day impact on the PIMCO All Asset strategies or the PIMCO suite of funds advised by Research Affiliates.
1
All Asset Strategy
Acadian Asset Management LLC
Acadian Asset Management notified NEPC Research that Director of Long/Short Equities Alex Voitenok has been promoted to Director of Implementation effective September 1, 2018. Mr. Voitenok will lead Acadian’s Portfolio Construction and Trading Team. Mr. Voitenok’s promotion is the result of Mauricio Karchmer’s departure in December 2017. Michael Gleason, Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager, will assume a leadership role on the Long/Short Team in a joint capacity with Mr. Voitenok as Co-Directors in the interim. Effective 2019, Mr. Gleason will become sole Director of Long/Short Equities Strategy. NEPC Research is comfortable with this transition given the broad and experienced team structure at Acadian. The implementation team has 12 members and Acadian had been searching for Mr. Karchmer’s replacement since January 2018. NEPC research recommends NO ACTION.
1Emerging Markets
Equity
34
INVESTMENT MANAGER DUE DILIGENCENEPC Due Diligence Committee Recommendation Key
No Action Informational items have surfaced; no action is recommended.
Watch Issues have surfaced to be concerned over; manager can participate in future searches, but current and prospective clients must be made aware of the issues.
Hold Serious issues have surfaced to be concerned over; manager cannot be in future searches unless a client specifically requests, but current and prospective clients must be made aware of the issues.
Client Review Very serious issues have surfaced with a manager; manager cannot be in future searches unless a client specifically requests.Current clients must be advised to review the manager.
TerminateWe have lost all confidence in the product; manager would not be recommended for searches and clients would be discouraged from using. The manager cannot be in future searches unless a client specifically requests. Current clients must be advised toreplace the manager.
35
NEPC, LLC
TOTAL FUND SUMMARY
36
Market Value($)
% ofPortfolio
3 Mo(%) Rank YTD
(%) Rank 1 Yr(%) Rank 3 Yrs
(%) Rank 5 Yrs(%) Rank 10 Yrs
(%) Rank Inception(%)
InceptionDate
_
Board of Regents Total Composite 40,422,850 100.0 1.2 38 -0.1 70 2.2 36 5.0 30 3.5 51 -- -- 5.1 Apr-09Allocation Index 1.8 13 1.0 35 4.2 9 5.6 19 -- -- -- -- -- Apr-09
InvestorForce Trust Funds >60% Fixed Income Net Median 0.9 0.5 1.6 4.1 3.6 4.6 5.0 Apr-09Short Term Investment Pool 24,249,707 60.0 0.1 -- 0.1 -- 0.1 -- 0.1 -- 0.1 -- -- -- 0.1 Apr-09
91 Day T-Bills 0.5 -- 1.3 -- 1.6 -- 0.9 -- 0.5 -- 0.3 -- 0.3 Apr-09Bank of Ann Arbor Trust Cash 232,112 0.6 0.0 99 0.0 99 0.0 99 0.0 99 0.0 99 -- -- 0.0 Nov-09
91 Day T-Bills 0.5 76 1.3 54 1.6 48 0.9 80 0.5 83 0.3 91 0.3 Nov-09eV US Cash Management Net Median 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 Nov-09
Long Term Investment Pool 16,173,143 40.0 1.3 79 -0.1 96 2.8 91 7.0 86 4.9 89 -- -- 5.6 Apr-09Long Term Allocation Index 1.9 65 1.1 84 4.6 80 8.0 74 -- -- -- -- -- Apr-09Long Term Balanced Index 1.8 67 1.1 83 4.5 81 8.0 72 5.7 75 -- -- 5.6 Apr-09
InvestorForce All E&F < $50mm Net Median 2.3 2.6 6.1 8.9 6.5 7.5 10.0 Apr-09Total Equity 6,151,494 15.2 3.6 50 3.6 51 8.6 53 13.1 41 -- -- -- -- 8.6 Jan-14
MSCI ACWI 4.3 37 3.8 48 9.8 44 13.4 37 8.7 51 8.2 62 7.5 Jan-14eV All Global Equity Net Median 3.6 3.7 9.0 12.5 8.8 8.6 7.6 Jan-14
SEG Baxter 1,094,004 2.7 1.1 -- 1.9 -- 3.8 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7.5 Jul-17MSCI ACWI ex USA 0.7 -- -3.1 -- 1.8 -- 10.0 -- 4.1 -- 5.2 -- 6.4 Jul-17
Acadian Emerging Markets Equity 737,314 1.8 -0.8 26 -9.4 50 -3.8 56 12.0 41 -- -- -- -- 3.3 Oct-14MSCI Emerging Markets -1.1 30 -7.7 25 -0.8 27 12.4 35 3.6 54 5.4 58 3.4 Oct-14
eV Emg Mkts Equity Net Median -2.8 -9.5 -3.2 11.4 3.7 5.7 3.1 Oct-14Artisan Global Opportunities 1,361,009 3.4 3.6 51 7.7 19 12.5 24 16.8 10 -- -- -- -- 12.5 Dec-14
MSCI ACWI 4.3 37 3.8 48 9.8 44 13.4 37 8.7 51 8.2 62 7.7 Dec-14eV All Global Equity Net Median 3.6 3.7 9.0 12.5 8.8 8.6 7.7 Dec-14
Hexavest GE 1,284,862 3.2 4.2 40 1.2 70 5.6 72 10.5 75 -- -- -- -- 6.5 Dec-14MSCI ACWI 4.3 37 3.8 48 9.8 44 13.4 37 8.7 51 8.2 62 7.7 Dec-14
eV All Global Equity Net Median 3.6 3.7 9.0 12.5 8.8 8.6 7.7 Dec-14Vanguard Total Stock Market VIPERs 1,674,305 4.1 7.1 31 10.5 39 17.6 36 -- -- -- -- -- -- 18.5 Nov-16
Russell 3000 7.1 30 10.6 39 17.6 36 17.1 30 13.5 23 12.0 43 18.5 Nov-16eV All US Equity Net Median 5.6 8.4 14.6 15.1 11.6 11.6 15.8 Nov-16
-Intermediate Term Balanced Index: 50.0% Barclays Intermediate U.S. GV/CR Index and 50.0% BofA ML 1-3 Year Treasury Index.-Allocation Index: Used to measure the value add from active management. Calculated as the asset weight from the prior month end mulitiplied by the specified market index.-Long-Term Balanced Index: (10% - Russell 3000)(5% - MSCI EAFE Small Cap)(5% - MSCI Emerging Markets)(15% - MSCI ACWI)(15% - Barclays Aggregate)(5% - 50%JPM EMBIGD/ 25% JPM ELMI+/ 25% JPM GBI EM GD)(5% - Barclays Multi-verse)(20% - 60% MSCI World (Net)/ 40% CITI WGBI)(10% - HFRI Fund of Funds Composite)(10% - PIMCO All AssetIndex).
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Total Fund Performance Detail
37
Market Value($)
% ofPortfolio
3 Mo(%) Rank YTD
(%) Rank 1 Yr(%) Rank 3 Yrs
(%) Rank 5 Yrs(%) Rank 10 Yrs
(%) Rank Inception(%)
InceptionDate
_
Total Fixed 5,180,150 12.8 0.5 39 -0.5 25 -0.3 32 4.0 38 -- -- -- -- 2.7 Jan-14BBgBarc US Aggregate TR 0.0 52 -1.6 40 -1.2 48 1.3 86 2.2 46 3.8 57 2.3 Jan-14
eV Global Fixed Inc Unhedged Net Median 0.1 -2.2 -1.3 3.2 1.9 3.9 1.9 Jan-14Franklin Templeton- Global Multi-Sector Plus 792,034 2.0 1.4 1 -0.1 14 -1.9 65 4.5 2 -- -- -- -- 1.2 Oct-14
BBgBarc Multiverse -0.8 66 -2.4 51 -1.3 42 2.3 48 0.9 60 3.1 74 0.8 Oct-14eV Global Agg Fixed Inc Net Median -0.7 -2.4 -1.5 2.1 1.1 3.6 0.6 Oct-14
BlackRock- SIO 2,278,478 5.6 0.4 45 0.0 10 0.8 5 2.7 26 -- -- -- -- 2.2 Oct-14BBgBarc US Aggregate TR 0.0 85 -1.6 77 -1.2 79 1.3 96 2.2 86 3.8 99 1.7 Oct-14
eV US Core Plus Fixed Inc Net Median 0.3 -1.3 -0.8 2.3 2.8 5.2 2.2 Oct-14Baird - Core Bond 1,073,396 2.7 0.1 70 -1.7 72 -1.2 70 1.8 31 -- -- -- -- 1.7 Dec-14
BBgBarc US Aggregate TR 0.0 76 -1.6 62 -1.2 67 1.3 68 2.2 65 3.8 78 1.3 Dec-14eV US Core Fixed Inc Net Median 0.1 -1.5 -1.1 1.5 2.3 4.3 1.5 Dec-14
Vanguard Inflation Protected Fund 948,440 2.3 -- -- -- -- -- -- -1.0 Sep-18BBgBarc US TIPS TR -0.8 -0.8 0.4 2.0 1.4 3.3 -1.1 Sep-18
Treasury Strips 87,802 0.2 -0.2 57 -1.3 1 -1.9 10 0.4 99 2.5 99 -- -- 4.1 Apr-09BBgBarc US Treasury Long TR -2.9 95 -5.8 74 -3.6 89 0.7 99 4.4 92 5.4 99 4.4 Apr-09
eV US Long Duration Fixed Inc Net Median 0.3 -5.4 -2.6 4.1 5.4 8.3 8.3 Apr-09GAA/ Risk Parity 2,927,761 7.2 -1.1 88 -5.1 95 -2.4 88 1.5 89 -- -- -- -- 0.3 Dec-14
60% MSCI World (Net) / 40% FTSE WGBI 2.3 29 2.2 19 6.0 19 8.8 23 5.7 30 6.3 55 5.2 Dec-14eV Global TAA Net Median 1.6 -0.1 3.5 6.0 3.7 6.6 2.3 Dec-14
William Blair Macro Allocation 1,499,550 3.7 -2.4 96 -3.9 89 -3.3 94 -- -- -- -- -- -- -1.5 Aug-1760% MSCI World (Net) / 40% FTSE WGBI 2.3 29 2.2 19 6.0 19 8.8 23 5.7 30 6.3 55 6.4 Aug-17
eV Global TAA Net Median 1.6 -0.1 3.5 6.0 3.7 6.6 3.6 Aug-17AQR Global Market and Alternative Premia Offshore Fund 1,428,211 3.5 0.2 73 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -4.8 Mar-18
60% MSCI World (Net) / 40% FTSE WGBI 2.3 29 2.2 19 6.0 19 8.8 23 5.7 30 6.3 55 2.0 Mar-18Real Assets 1,913,738 4.7 0.4 23 -1.8 69 1.3 92 8.2 23 -- -- -- -- 3.1 Dec-14
PIMCO All Asset Index 1.0 14 0.1 55 1.1 95 4.0 68 3.5 23 5.2 12 2.8 Dec-14Bloomberg Commodity Index -2.0 76 -2.0 71 2.6 72 -0.1 99 -7.2 67 -6.2 99 -6.4 Dec-14
InvestorForce All E&F Real Assets/Commodities Net Median -0.3 0.8 3.3 5.1 -1.8 0.3 -2.8 Dec-14PIMCO All Asset 1,913,738 4.7 0.4 70 -1.8 76 1.3 66 8.2 26 -- -- -- -- 3.1 Dec-14
PIMCO All Asset Index 1.0 57 0.1 49 1.1 67 4.0 65 3.5 52 5.2 72 2.8 Dec-14Bloomberg Commodity Index -2.0 92 -2.0 78 2.6 57 -0.1 95 -7.2 99 -6.2 99 -6.4 Dec-14
eV Global TAA Net Median 1.6 -0.1 3.5 6.0 3.7 6.6 2.3 Dec-14XXXXX
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Total Fund Performance Detail
38
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Total Fund Asset Growth Summary Quarter Ending September 30, 2018
BeginningMarket Value Contributions Withdrawals Net Cash Flow Net Investment
ChangeEnding
Market Value_
Acadian Emerging Markets Equity $743,256 $0 $0 $0 -$5,942 $737,314AQR Global Market and Alternative Premia Offshore Fund $1,425,252 $0 $0 $0 $2,959 $1,428,211Artisan Global Opportunities $1,314,329 $0 $0 $0 $46,680 $1,361,009Baird - Core Bond $1,072,609 $0 $0 $0 $787 $1,073,396Bank of Ann Arbor Trust Cash $175,758 $953,537 -$897,182 $56,354 $0 $232,112BlackRock- SIO $2,270,144 $0 $0 $0 $8,333 $2,278,478Franklin Templeton- Global Multi-Sector Plus $780,801 $0 $0 $0 $11,233 $792,034Hexavest GE $1,233,507 $0 $0 $0 $51,355 $1,284,862Northern Inst Govt Select MMKT $0 $24,000,000 $0 $24,000,000 $17,595 $24,017,595PIMCO All Asset $1,907,007 $0 $0 $0 $6,731 $1,913,738SEG Baxter $1,082,254 $0 $0 $0 $11,750 $1,094,004Treasury Strips $87,954 $0 $0 $0 -$152 $87,802Vanguard Inflation Protected Fund -- $950,000 $0 $950,000 -$1,560 $948,440Vanguard Total Stock Market VIPERs $1,563,688 $0 $0 $0 $110,617 $1,674,305William Blair Macro Allocation $1,536,316 $0 $0 $0 -$36,767 $1,499,550Z Prisma Spectrum Fund Ltd $1,060,211 $0 -$1,060,211 -$1,060,211 $0 --Total $16,253,086 $25,903,537 -$1,957,393 $23,946,143 $223,621 $40,422,850
XXXXX
39
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Long Term Investment Pool
Attribution Summary3 Months Ending September 30, 2018Wtd.
ActualReturn
Wtd. IndexReturn
ExcessReturn
SelectionEffect
AllocationEffect
InteractionEffects
TotalEffects
Total Equity 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%Total Fixed 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% 0.1%GAA/ Risk Parity -1.1% 2.3% -3.5% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6%Real Assets 0.4% 1.0% -0.7% -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%Hedge Funds -- 0.2% -- 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%Total 1.3% 1.8% -0.5% -0.6% 0.0% 0.1% -0.5%
40
Attribution Summary1 Year Ending September 30, 2018
Wtd.ActualReturn
Wtd. IndexReturn
ExcessReturn
SelectionEffect
AllocationEffect
InteractionEffects
TotalEffects
Total Equity 8.6% 9.5% -1.0% -0.3% 0.2% -0.1% -0.2%Total Fixed -0.3% -1.6% 1.3% 0.3% -0.2% 0.0% 0.1%GAA/ Risk Parity -2.4% 6.0% -8.5% -1.7% 0.0% 0.1% -1.6%Real Assets 1.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Hedge Funds -- 3.0% -- -0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%Total 2.8% 4.5% -1.7% -1.8% 0.0% 0.1% -1.7%
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Long Term Investment Pool
41
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Total Fund Asset Allocation History
42
Last ThreeMonths Year-To-Date One Year Three Years
_
Beginning Market Value $16,253,086 $16,466,044 $19,980,510 $30,514,226Contributions $25,903,537 $27,419,989 $38,441,825 $164,566,089Withdrawals -$1,983,646 -$3,562,271 -$18,669,949 -$159,308,101Net Cash Flow $23,919,891 $23,857,718 $19,771,876 $5,257,989Net Investment Change $249,873 $99,088 $670,463 $4,650,635Ending Market Value $40,422,850 $40,422,850 $40,422,850 $40,422,850
_
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Total Fund Asset Growth Summary
43
5 Years Ending September 30, 2018
Anlzd Ret Rank Anlzd StdDev Rank Sharpe
Ratio Rank_
Long Term Investment Pool 4.93% 89 5.09% 19 0.87 75Long Term Allocation Index -- -- -- -- -- --Long Term Balanced Index 5.70% 75 5.18% 19 1.00 44
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Risk vs. Return
3 Years Ending September 30, 2018
Anlzd Ret Rank Anlzd StdDev Rank Sharpe
Ratio Rank_
Long Term Investment Pool 7.04% 86 5.02% 24 1.23 82Long Term Allocation Index 7.97% 74 5.38% 35 1.32 67Long Term Balanced Index 8.02% 72 5.34% 33 1.34 63
- Above Risk vs. Return analytics are based on the Long Term Investment Pool.
44
5 Years Ending September 30, 2018
Anlzd Ret Rank Anlzd StdDev Rank Sharpe
Ratio Rank_
Board of Regents TotalComposite 3.55% 51 3.50% 51 0.86 76
Allocation Index -- -- -- -- -- --XXXXX
3 Years Ending September 30, 2018
Anlzd Ret Rank Anlzd StdDev Rank Sharpe
Ratio Rank_
Board of Regents TotalComposite 5.01% 30 3.64% 30 1.14 56
Allocation Index 5.55% 19 3.91% 19 1.20 52
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Total Fund Risk vs. Return
45
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Return Summary vs. Peer Universe
-The above Return Summary vs. Peer Universe analytic is based on the Long Term Investment Pool.
46
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Return Summary vs. Peer Universe
-The above Return Summary vs. Peer Universe analytic is based on the Long Term Investment Pool.
47
Long Term Investment Pool vs. InvestorForce All E&F < $50mm Net3 Years
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Risk Statistics vs. Peer Universe
-The above Risk Statistics vs. Peer Universe analytics are based on the Long Term Investment Pool.
48
Long Term Investment Pool vs. InvestorForce All E&F < $50mm Net5 Years
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Risk Statistics vs. Peer Universe
-The above Risk Statistics vs. Peer Universe analytics are based on the Long Term Investment Pool.
49
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Return Summary vs. Peer Universe
50
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Return Summary vs. Peer Universe
51
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Risk Statistics vs. Peer UniverseTotal Composite vs. InvestorForce Trust Funds >60% Fixed Income Net
3 Years
52
Eastern Michigan University - Board of Regents
Risk Statistics vs. Peer UniverseTotal Composite vs. InvestorForce Trust Funds >60% Fixed Income Net
5 Years
53
NEPC, LLC
APPENDIX
54
NEPC, LLC
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
55
Eastern Michigan University’s investment objective shall be to preserve investment principal while deriving a reasonable return consistent with the prevailing market and economic conditions. Investment decisions shall be based on specific guidelines which incorporate quality, safety, diversity and liquidity of funds.
Investment Policy
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Asset Class Target RangeEquity 35% 20%‐50%
Domestic All Cap 10% 5%‐20%International Equities 5% 0%‐10%Emerging International Equities 5% 0%‐8%Global Equity 15% 10%‐20%
Fixed Income 25% 20%‐50%Core Fixed 5% 0%‐10%Absolute Return Fixed Income 10% 5%‐15%Emerging Market Debt 5% 0%‐8%Global Multi‐Sector Fixed Income 5% 0%‐10%
Global Asset Allocation/Risk Parity 20% 10%‐30%Alternatives 20% 5%‐25%
Hedge Funds 10% 0%‐20%Real Assets 10% 5%‐15%
Expected Return (5‐7 years)Standard Deviation
6.0%11.1%
56
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES – LONG TERM INVESTMENT POOL
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
etu
rns
Long Term Investment Pool (Net)
Actual Expected +1 Std Dev +2 Std Dev -1 Std Dev -2 Std Dev
57
NEPC, LLC
ESG SUMMARY
58
LONG TERM INVESTMENT POOL – ESG PRODUCTS
Firm/ProductStrategy is Managed with
ESG Considerations(Y/N)
Acadian Emerging Markets Equity Yes
AQR GMAP No
Aritisan Global Opportunities No
Baird Core Bond No
BlackRock SIO No
Comerica Treasury Strips No
Franklin Templeton Yes
Hexavest Global Equity Yes
PIMCO All Asset No
Prisma Spectrum Fund No
Select Baxter Street Fund No
Vanguard No
William Blair No
59
NEPC, LLC
MARKET OVERVIEW
60
Extended US Economic Cycle
• The global growth outlook remainsin tact, despite trade policy issues
• Global bond yields increased ascentral banks transition towardtighter monetary policy
• Higher rates in the US supportedthe dollar – adding further pressureto emerging market currencies
Yield06/30/18
Yield09/30/18 |∆|
US 10‐Yr 2.86% 3.06% 0.20%
US 30‐Yr 2.99% 3.21% 0.22%
US Real 10‐Yr 0.74% 0.92% 0.18%
German 10‐Yr 0.30% 0.47% 0.17%
Japan 10‐Yr 0.04% 0.13% 0.09%
China 10‐Yr 3.48% 3.63% 0.15%
EM Local Debt 6.59% 6.62% 0.03%
Q3 Macro Market Summary
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
CentralBanks
CurrentRate
CPIYOY Notes from the Quarter
FederalReserve
2.00% ‐2.25% 2.7%
The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate to 2.00% ‐ 2.25% in
September and is expected to hike rates one more time in 2018
EuropeanCentralBank
0.0% 2.1%
The ECB maintained its current benchmark interest rate, but
continues its plan to scale back its QE Program
Bank of
Japan‐0.1% 1.3%
The BoJ will continue its ultra‐easy QE program with inflation remaining well below target
MACRO PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
61
Extended US Economic Cycle
Equity Performance Overview
• Strong economic data and positivesentiment helped US equities tooutperform global equities
• Trade-sensitive economiesdisproportionately declined asescalating trade tensions andcurrency weakness weighed onreturns
Russell 3000 QTD Sector Return Contribution
Information Technology 1.7%
Consumer Discretionary 0.3%
Financials 0.5%
Industrials 1.4%
Consumer Staples 0.0%
Energy 0.4%
Materials 0.0%
Health Care 0.5%
Real Estate 0.6%
Communication Services ‐1.0%
Utilities 0.1%
Q3 Equity Market Summary
Source: MSCI, Russell, S&P, Bloomberg
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg. QTD top country contributors to index returnSource: Russell, Bloomberg
EQUITY PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
62
Extended US Economic Cycle
Credit Performance Overview
• Credit spreads broadly declined and remain below medians in most areas of the credit market
• Dollar-denominated emerging market debt increased by 2.3% as spreads tightened
Q3 Credit Market Summary
Source: Barclays, JPM, S&P, Bloomberg
Source: Barclays, JPM, S&P, BloombergSource: Barclays, Merrill Lynch, JPM, Bloomberg, NEPC
Credit Spread(Basis Points) 06/30/18 09/30/18 |∆|
BC IG Credit 116 100 ‐16
BC Long Credit 174 153 ‐21
BC Securitized 28 28 0
BC High Yield 363 316 ‐47
Muni HY 253 198 ‐55
JPM EMBI 388 362 ‐26
Bank Loans ‐ Libor 303 281 ‐22
CREDIT PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
63
Extended US Economic Cycle
Credit Performance Overview
• Oil declined 1.2% for the quarter,but is up 41.8% for the year
• Agricultural commodities declinedsubstantially due to robust supplyand trade war-related concerns
• MLP’s increased 6.6%, supportedby rising commodity prices andongoing industry simplification
Q3 Real Assets Market Summary
Source: S&P, NAREIT, Alerian, Bloomberg
Source: NCREIF, Alerian, NAREIT, S&P, Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, NEPC Calculated as of 09/28/2018
Real Asset Yields 06/30/18 09/30/18
MLPs 8.1% 8.0%
Core Real Estate 4.2% 4.4%
US REITs 4.4% 4.2%
Global REITs 3.7% 3.7%
Global Infrastructure Equities 4.4% 4.5%
Natural Resource Equities 3.5% 3.5%
US 10‐Yr Breakeven Inflation 2.1% 2.1%
Commodity Index Roll Yield 0.1% ‐1.2%
REAL ASSETS PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
64
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays, Alerian, Nareit, MSCI, JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, Thomson One*Private Equity return represents calendar year pooled IRR and is subject to a one quarter lag
CALENDAR YEAR INDEX PERFORMANCE2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 July Aug Sep Q3 YTD
S&P 500 26.5% 15.1% 2.1% 16.0% 32.4% 13.7% 1.4% 12.0% 21.8% ‐0.8% 3.4% 3.7% 3.3% 0.6% 7.7% 10.6%
Russell 1000 28.4% 16.1% 1.5% 16.4% 33.1% 13.2% 0.9% 12.1% 21.7% ‐0.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 0.4% 7.4% 10.5%
Russell 2000 27.2% 26.9% ‐4.2% 16.3% 38.8% 4.9% ‐4.4% 21.3% 14.6% ‐0.1% 7.8% 1.7% 4.3% ‐2.4% 3.6% 11.5%
Russell 2500 34.4% 26.7% ‐2.5% 17.9% 36.8% 7.1% ‐2.9% 17.6% 16.8% ‐0.2% 5.7% 1.9% 4.3% ‐1.5% 4.7% 10.4%
MSCI EAFE 31.8% 7.8% ‐12.1% 17.3% 22.8% ‐4.9% ‐0.8% 1.0% 25.0% ‐1.5% ‐1.2% 2.5% ‐1.9% 0.9% 1.4% ‐1.4%
MSCI EM 78.5% 18.9% ‐18.4% 18.2% ‐2.6% ‐2.2% ‐14.9% 11.2% 37.3% 1.4% ‐8.0% 2.2% ‐2.7% ‐0.5% ‐1.1% ‐7.7%
MSCI ACWI 34.6% 12.7% ‐7.3% 16.1% 22.8% 4.2% ‐2.4% 7.9% 24.0% ‐1.0% 0.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.4% 4.3% 3.8%
Private Equity* 13.7% 19.7% 7.9% 12.5% 20.6% 12.7% 9.6% 8.3% 19.9% 3.2% ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3.2%
BC TIPS 11.4% 6.3% 13.6% 7.0% ‐8.6% 3.6% ‐1.4% 4.7% 3.0% ‐0.8% 0.8% ‐0.5% 0.7% ‐1.1% ‐0.8% ‐0.8%
BC Municipal Bond 12.9% 2.4% 10.7% 6.8% ‐2.6% 9.1% 3.3% 0.2% 5.4% ‐1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% ‐0.6% ‐0.2% ‐0.4%
BC Muni High Yield 32.7% 7.8% 9.2% 18.1% ‐5.5% 13.8% 1.8% 3.0% 9.7% 0.6% 3.1% 0.4% 0.8% ‐0.4% 0.8% 4.4%
BC US Corp High Yield 58.2% 15.1% 5.0% 15.8% 7.4% 2.5% ‐4.5% 17.1% 7.5% ‐0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 2.4% 2.6%
BC US Aggregate 5.9% 6.5% 7.8% 4.2% ‐2.0% 6.0% 0.5% 2.6% 3.5% ‐1.5% ‐0.2% 0.0% 0.6% ‐0.6% 0.0% ‐1.6%
BC Global Aggregate 2.6% 5.2% 6.4% 1.6% ‐4.0% ‐0.5% ‐3.6% 1.6% 7.5% 1.4% ‐2.8% ‐0.2% 0.1% ‐0.9% ‐0.9% ‐2.4%
BC Long Treasuries ‐12.9% 9.4% 29.9% 3.6% ‐12.7% 25.1% ‐1.2% 1.3% 8.5% ‐3.3% 0.3% ‐1.5% 1.6% ‐3.0% ‐2.9% ‐5.8%
BC US Long Credit 16.8% 10.7% 17.1% 12.7% ‐6.6% 16.4% ‐4.6% 10.2% 12.2% ‐3.8% ‐2.7% 1.5% 0.3% ‐0.6% 1.3% ‐5.2%
BC US STRIPS 20+ Yr ‐36.0% 10.9% 58.5% 3.0% ‐21.0% 46.4% ‐3.7% 1.4% 13.7% ‐4.6% 0.9% ‐2.3% 2.0% ‐4.4% ‐4.7% ‐8.3%
JPM GBI‐EM Glob Div 22.0% 15.7% ‐1.8% 16.8% ‐9.0% ‐5.7% ‐14.9% 9.9% 15.2% 4.4% ‐10.4% 1.9% ‐6.1% 2.6% ‐1.8% ‐8.1%
JPM EMBI Glob Div 29.8% 12.2% 7.3% 17.4% ‐5.3% 7.4% 1.2% 10.2% 10.1% ‐1.7% ‐3.5% 2.6% ‐1.7% 1.5% 2.3% ‐3.0%
CS Leveraged Loan 44.9% 10.0% 1.8% 9.4% 6.2% 2.1% ‐0.4% 9.9% 4.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 1.9% 4.4%
CS Hedge Fund 18.6% 10.9% ‐2.5% 7.7% 9.7% 4.1% ‐0.7% 1.2% 7.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% ‐ ‐ 1.1%
BBG Commodity 18.9% 16.8% ‐13.3% ‐1.1% ‐9.5% ‐17.0% ‐24.7% 11.8% 1.7% ‐0.4% 0.4% ‐2.1% ‐1.8% 1.9% ‐2.0% ‐2.0%
Alerian MLP 76.4% 35.9% 13.9% 4.8% 27.6% 4.8% ‐32.6% 18.3% ‐6.5% ‐11.1% 11.8% 6.6% 1.6% ‐1.6% 6.6% 5.9%
FTSE NAREIT Eq REITs 28.0% 28.0% 8.3% 18.1% 2.5% 30.1% 3.2% 8.5% 5.2% ‐8.2% 10.0% 0.8% 2.6% ‐2.5% 0.8% 1.8%
65
SHORT-TERM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poor's, Russell, MSCI, Barclays, JP Morgan *1 Yr Range: Represents range of cumulative high/low daily index returns for an investment made one year ago
66
Trailing 1‐Year Trailing 3‐Years Trailing 5‐Years Trailing 10‐Years Since Inception
Russell 1000 Growth 26.3% 20.6% 16.6% 14.3% 11.6%
Russell 1000 Value 9.5% 13.6% 10.7% 9.8% 12.1%
MSCI EAFE Growth 5.8% 10.3% 5.6% 6.2% 8.5%
MSCI EAFE Value ‐0.4% 8.1% 3.1% 4.5% 10.9%
MSCI EM Growth ‐3.9% 13.0% 5.1% 6.2% 8.7%
MSCI EM Value 2.3% 11.6% 2.0% 4.5% 9.3%
• While growth has outperformed in the current market regime, there isa case to be made for holding value as well, which has outperformedover the long-term, even with the strong growth rally of the pastdecade– The macroeconomic backdrop of low interest rates, muted volatility, and strong
economic growth combined with low starting valuations has fueled growth’s run
– However, rising rates and the potential for economic disruption indicate a combinationof value and growth will likely provide the best diversification benefit
IS THIS TRUE OUTSIDE THE US AS WELL?
Source: Russell, MSCI, Bloomberg, NEPCInception dates as follows: Russell 1000 – 12/31/1978; MSCI EAFE – 12/31/1974; MSCI EM – 12/29/2000
Data through September 31, 2018
67
INFORMATION DISCLAIMER
• Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
• The goal of this report is to provide a basis for substantiating asset allocation recommendations. The opinions presented herein represent the good faith views of NEPC as of the date of this report and are subject to change at any time.
• Information on market indices was provided by sources external to NEPC. While NEPC has exercised reasonable professional care in preparing this report, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of all source information contained within.
• All investments carry some level of risk. Diversification and other asset allocation techniques do not ensure profit or protect against losses.
• This report is provided as a management aid for the client’s internal use only. This report may contain confidential or proprietary information and may not be copied or redistributed to any party not legally entitled to receive it.
68
It is important that investors understand the following characteristics of non-traditional investment strategies including hedge funds and private equity:
1. Performance can be volatile and investors could lose all or a substantial portion of their investment
2. Leverage and other speculative practices may increase the risk of loss3. Past performance may be revised due to the revaluation of investments 4. These investments can be illiquid, and investors may be subject to lock-ups
or lengthy redemption terms5. A secondary market may not be available for all funds, and any sales that
occur may take place at a discount to value6. These funds are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as
registered investment vehicles7. Managers may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation
information to investors8. These funds may have complex tax structures and delays in distributing
important tax information9. These funds often charge high fees10.Investment agreements often give the manager authority to trade in
securities, markets or currencies that are not within the manager’s realm of expertise or contemplated investment strategy
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT DISCLOSURES
69