Quantitative Report - Political Poll

7/28/2019 Quantitative Report - Political Poll

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Conducted by:

10th April 2013


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This final document is the sole property of iris communications. Illegal distribution or reproduction is strictly prohibited . 2013

Ascertain the choice of vote of target

audience in upcoming elections.

Gauge the perceptions of people

about different political parties.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
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The quantitative research technique ofdoor to door surveywas used to obtain the

requisite information.

Punjab, KPK and Karachi was divided into 6 regions based on their geographical/

population wise segmentation.

In order to include maximum representation of Districts, the targeted areas in 13

regions were selected on random basis.

To examine the data analytically, the sample was further sub-divided into Gender,

Age group, Socio Economic Class and Rural/Urban split.

Agency developed the questionnaire to include a representative sample in this study.

`Proper training was given to the interviewers through briefing/mock sessions. The successful/backup

interviewers were selected from that pool.

The questionnaire was pre-tested prior to its induction for the fieldwork. A minimum number (10) of

questionnaires were pre-tested to check for comprehension and flow.

A team of experienced interviewers conducted interviews at households (Door-to-door survey) only. Theinterviews with the target respondents using a structured questionnaire in Urdu.

Interviews were conducted with those respondents only who were willing to poll their vote in

upcoming elections.

To ensure the data authenticity, strict field controls were used during the field work of this study.

Customized computer checks were also incorporated during data entry process and at least 5% randomly

selected questionnaires were double punched to ensure data accuracy.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
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Respondent Profile

Respondents Male/Female

Single/Married

Age Group 18 years of more

SEC A,B,C,D and E

Criteria

Registered voter of Pakistan

Willing to cast his/her vote in upcoming

elections

TARGET RESPONDENT


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Punjab, KPK and Karachi was divided into 6 regions based on their Geographical/

Population wise segmentation. Those regions were further divided into 13 areas based on their

weighted population. The sample was through random selection of Tehsils in each area. The

randomly selected Tehsils were further bifurcated into rural and urban vicinities.

DETERMININGTHE SAMPLE SIZE

For each targeted area in the region (from which the sample was drawn), sample size was

determined at 95% confidence interval with 5.78% margin of error.

The proposed sample per areas was 289.

A door to door survey was conducted in Punjab, KPK and Karachi from March 27 to April

05, 2013 among 3,471 respondents, belonging to SEC A, B, C, D and E households in thetargeted regions of Pakistan while maintaining the quota of Gender, Age group and

Urban/Rural population.


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SAMPLE SPLIT

Note: The devised sample has been rounded off.

Regions Total Interviews

Seraiki Belt 578

Pothohar Belt 289

Rest of Punjab 1,445

Hazara belt 290

KPK 579

Karachi 290

Total 3,471

Punjab


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SNAPSHOTPOLITICAL POLL

With reference to choice of political party in upcoming elections, on an overall basis, a majority of

the respondents equally preferred to vote for PML (N) and PTI (38% each). The growth of popularity

of PTI has increased by 50% in Punjab (mainly in Seraiki belt and Pothohar belt); however, in rest of

Punjab areas, PML (N) is still the most popular choice for vote in upcoming elections. It is

worthwhile to note that, PTI is the most popular party to vote for in both KPK and Hazara Belt as

compared to PML (N).

On an overall basis, with respect to most popular leader, Imran Khan is ahead of Nawaz Sharif with a

margin of 3%.

The overall satisfaction with the performance of both the leading parties, namely PML (N) and PTI,

is almost similar for that period.



PML (N) : 38%

PTI : 38%

PPP : 10%

MQM : 4%

Jamat e Islami : 3%

PML (Q) : 2%

ANP : 1%

JUI (F) : 1%

Others : 1%

Undecided : 2%

n = 3,471

CHOICEOF PARTYIN UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Overall



6%

1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

3%

8%

37%

39%

Dont Know

Others

ANP

PML (Q)

JUI (F)

MQM

Jamat e Islami

PPP

PTI

PML (N)

n = 3,471

Imran Khan : 36%

Nawaz Sharif : 33%

Shehbaz Sharif : 6%

Bilawal Bhutto : 3%

Yousaf Raza Gillani : 2%

Asif Zardari : 1%

Altaf Hussain : 1%

Pervaiz Elahi : 1%

Munawar Hussain : 1%

Others : 1%

Dont know : 15%

n = 3,471

EXPECTATIONSOF UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Next Prime Minister of PakistanWinning Political Party of Upcoming Elections (Overall)

Overall



6% 7%

60%

30%38%

12% 8%

16%

28%

31%

18% 22%

10%37%

24%

29%32%

8%

4% 5%

35%31%

6%1% 2%

Completely Satisfied

Somewhat Satisfied

Neither Satisfied nor Dissatisfied

Somewhat Disatisfied

Completely Disatisfied

Mean Value

(Out of 5 - Closest to 5 is best)3.76 3.73

PML (N) PTI

n = 3,471

LEVELOF SATISFACTIONFROMTHE PERFORMANCEOF POLITICAL PARTIES

1.84 2.18 2.01

PPP ANP MQM

Overall



3%

11%

25%

61%

Completely Agree

Somewhat Agree

Neither Agree nor Disagree

Somewhat Disagree

Completely Disagree

Mean Value

(Out of 5 - Closest to 5 is best)4.44

n = 3,471

INFLUENCEOFA PARTY BEING DEMOCRATICON CHOICEOF VOTE

Overall

To what extent to you agree/disagree with the statement that

A party being democratic will influence your choice of vote.



5% 4%

52%

28%36%

10%8%

18%

28%

29%

21%26%

15%38%

28%

33% 32%

10%

5% 5%

31% 30%

5%1% 2%

Completely Democratic

Somewhat Democratic

Neither Democratic nor Non-Democratic

Somewhat Non-Democratic

Completely Non-Democratic

Mean Value

(Out of 5 - Closest to 5 is best)3.76 3.72

PML (N) PTI

n = 3,471

PERCEPTIONOFTHE PARTY BEING DEMOCRATIC

1.98 2.23 2.07

PPP ANP MQM

Overall


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EVALUATIONOF POLITICAL PARTYS SPOKESPERSONSON TV TALK SHOWS

Political party

having bestspokesperson

Best

spokesperson

irrespective ofpolitical party

PML (N) 14%

PTI 11%

PPP 2%

MQM 1%

PML (Q) 1%

All are same 11%

Dont know 13%

Dont watch TV 15%

Dont watch political talk shows 32%

Saad Rafique 9%

Khawaja Asif 5%

Nisar Ahmad 5%

Shah Mehmood Qureshi 4%

Sharmeela Farooqi 4%

Mushahid Ullah 3%

Javed Hashmi 2%

Shakeel Awan 2%

Haneef Abasi 2%

Siddiq-ul-Farooq 2%

Jahangir Tareen 1%

Asad Umar 1%

Shafqat Mehmood 1%

Mehmood-ur-Rasheed 1%

Arif Alvi 1%

Fozia Kasuri 1%

Andleeb Abbas 1%

Others 7%

All are same 14%Dont know 34%

n = 3,471n = 1,856

Overall


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Quantitative Report - Political Poll