Quantifying source c ontributions to O 3 and PM 2.5 pollution e pisodes

Quantifying source contributions to O3 and PM2.5 pollution episodes

across the Eastern U.S.

AQAST7Harvard University, Cambridge, MA

June 18, 2014

TT PIs: Arlene Fiore (CU/LDEO), Tracey Holloway (U WI)

AQAST TT Members: Greg Carmichael (U Iowa), Daniel Cohan (Rice U), Bryan Duncan (NASA GSFC), Daven Henze (CU-Boulder), Edward Hyer (NRL), Daniel Jacob (Harvard),

Russ Dickerson (U MD), Gabriele Pfister (NCAR)

Designing effective SIPs requires knowledge of source contributions to O3 and PM2.5 pollution episodes

Observed pollution levels are the summation of in-state, out-of-state, international and natural sources

Build a framework for continued communication with the stakeholders

Request priority high-O3 and high-PM2.5 episodes from AQMs (2007-2013)

Next teleconference: Monday, June 23, 2pm (EDT)

AQASTTT

Members

Air Agencies monthly

teleconferences MDE, MO DNR, NH DES, NYSDEC, TX/TCEQ, WI DNR/LADCO,OTC, NESCAUM, US EPA……your agency??

AQAST can help quantify these components; how can we be most effective?

AQAST resources for source attribution during EUS pollution episodes

satellite instrumentssuborbital platforms models

DISCOVER-AQ (2011; SIP Base year)

SEAC4RS/SOAS/SENEX (2013)EPA AQSCASTNet

OMI NO2 MOPITT COMODIS AOD

CAMxCMAQ

GEOS-ChemGFDL AM3

STEMTransport events• Inter-state• Wildfire• International

Size of episode• Areal extent• Duration• Transport

Source attribution• Several horizontal

resolutions• Forward/adjoint• HTAP simulations• Connect suborbital

and space-based information

For each episode, organically determine best use of AQAST resources (which team members, tools)

Deliverables & Expected AQ outcomes

1. Establishment of a stakeholder advisory committee (set priorities) Build broader engagement between AQAST and state-level AQMs

2. For each episode, generate reports with technical details of approach in appendices (“the recipe” for the analysis) New info / approaches to support SIP development Build capacity by providing case studies for future analyses

3. Develop website archive of reports, and links to related AQAST resources, including coordination with RSIG TT activity, other web tools Broader dissemination of approaches & findings

4. Online interactive graphics to facilitate exploration of model and satellite data Developing user-friendly space-based and model products to provide information on contributions from transported pollution

5

Figure 2: Ratio of tropospheric formaldehyde (HCHO) to tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over the Colorado Front Range area, derived from mean GOME2 satellite measurements for July 2007 and 2008. A ratio of above 1.0 may indicate a NOx-sensitive ozone production regime. All ratios in this region show ratios are above 1.0. Gridded data from KNMI TEMIS (http://www.temis.nl/airpollution/no2.html). Figure courtesy of Patrick Reddy, from presentation "2009 Ozone Season Review: Briefing to the Colorado Air Quality Control Commission," September 17, 2009

Witman, S., T. Holloway, and P. Reddy, 2013

Space-based formaldehyde to NO2 ratio indicates NOx-sensitive O3 production over Colorado Front Range

6 http://sage.wisc.edu/airquality_ratios

“The recipe” for estimating the sensitivity of O3 production to NOx vs. VOCs from space-based formaldehyde to NO2 ratio

T. Holloway

7Matthew Turner, Daven Henze, University of Colorado at Boulder

Receptor-oriented modeling: Contributions from local and regional BC emissions to mortality in NY/PHIL (2007)

Password-protected website for sharing materials among AQAST/AQM team members

• MOPITT multi-spectral retrieval (increased sensitivity to surface)

• IASI FORLI retrieval processed at NCAR (mostly mid-trop sensitivity)

• Download maps from: ftp://acd.ucar.edu/user/pfister/AQAST/TT_EUS_Episodes/

• Further graphics and time periods available if needed

• IASI O3 Analysis is in progress

David Edwards, Gabriele Pfister and Helen Worden, NCAR

1 – 8 July 2012

IASI 550 mbar MOPITT 550 mbar MOPITT surface

Satellite carbon monoxide composites (max value) during selected EUS episodes

ftp://acd.ucar.edu/user/pfister/AQAST/TT_EUS_Episodes/

Password-protected website for sharing materials among AQAST/AQM team members

“highest priority”: June 10-18 2007

11

4/7

4/14

4/21

4/28 5/

55/

125/

195/

26 6/2

6/9

6/16

6/23

6/30 7/

77/

147/

217/

28 8/4

8/11

8/18

8/25 9/

19/

89/

159/

229/

2910

/610

/13

10/2

0

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2007 Ozone Concentrations (>60 ppb)

Lakeshore2nd tier3rd tiernorthern

Ozo

ne C

once

ntra

tion

(ppb

)

A. Dickens, WDNR/LADCO

SUNDAY

AQS MDA8 OZONE (J. Guo)BEHR NO2 column anomalies (L. Valin)relative to MJJA 2005-2008 (1:30pm)

NOAA Weather Maps (7am)

“highest priority O3 episode” from WI DNR

“started as classic lake breeze”

-A. Dickens (WI DNR/LADCO)







“middle of episode, highestconcentrations inland…even in farthest northern stations; lower along lake; high O3 in IL”




“highest priority O3 episode” from WI DNR“middle of episode, highestconcentrations inland; lower along lake; MN also highest O3 of the year”




“highest priority O3 episode” from WI DNR“middle of episode, highestconcentrations inland; lower along lake; MN also highest O3 of the year”








“MI also observed the highest ozone concentrations of the year”


SUNDAYAQS MDA8 OZONE (J. Guo)BEHR NO2 column anomalies (L. Valin)relative to MJJA 2005-2008 (1:30pm)





Similar day-to-day variations in spatial patterns of surface O3 and NO2 column anomalies during this regional-scale, multi-day episode (reflects weather variability)

Quantifying source contributions with GEOS-Chem (v9_02): Multi-year (2004-2012) simulations (2°x2.5°)

L. Murray, LDEO/Columbia

MERRA winds; NLDN lightning; NEI2005; CH4 lower BCs from obs

Sensitivity simulations:• N. Amer. Background(zero N. Amer Anthr. Emis.)• U.S. Background• Natural Background• Zero soil NOx

• Zero lightning NOx • Zero fires• Zero a single state’s emissionsSome archived fields:• Columns at 10:00 and 13:30• Hourly surface O3 ; PM2.5

• Boundary conditions for regional models

Evaluating the ability of the coarse model to provide useful rapid first-look estimates of event source attribution in advance of regional-scale modeling

Sample estimated contribution of WI emissions to surface O3

Compiling spreadsheet with O3 and PM2.5 episodes requested from air agencies

2012 identified by

Notes O3 PM2.5 otherMARA

MA MDE MO NY TCEQ WDNR

severe widespread event

June 24 - 28 X X

widespread June 24 - 30 X X June 27 - 28 X XJune 28 - July 8 X X

July 1 - 8 Saharan dust X

July 5 - 7 X X July 9 - 14 X X

AQASTresources

MD, MO, TCEQ, WDNR all identified high-O3 events during the 2012 heat wave beginning late June into mid-July

Animation of EUS MDA8 O3 (J. Guo, Columbia) Also PM2.5 available

Designing effective SIPs requires knowledge of source contributions to O3 and PM2.5 pollution episodes

Observed pollution levels are the summation of in-state, out-of-state, international and natural sources

Build a framework for continued communication with the stakeholders Request priority high-O3 and high-PM2.5 episodes from AQMs (2007-2013) Analyze some of these episodes & provide “recipes” for determining

source contributions

Next teleconference: Monday, June 23, 2pm (EDT)

AQASTTT

Members

Air Agencies monthly

teleconferences MDE, MO DNR, NH DES, NYSDEC, TX/TCEQ, WI DNR/LADCO,OTC, NESCAUM, US EPA……your agency??

AQAST can help quantify these components; how can we be most effective?

Documents

Quantifying source c ontributions to O 3 and PM 2.5 pollution e pisodes