Quantifying Central Quantifying Central Committee: Approach Committee: Approach

and Applicationsand ApplicationsVictor ShihVictor Shih

Department of Political Science, Northwestern Department of Political Science, Northwestern UniversityUniversityWei ShanWei Shan

Department of Political Science, Duke UniversityDepartment of Political Science, Duke UniversityMingxing LiuMingxing Liu

Peking University, Central Finance and Peking University, Central Finance and Economic UniversityEconomic University

Data: Central Committee (CC) DatabaseData: Central Committee (CC) Database The data quantify all the available The data quantify all the available

biographical information of CC and biographical information of CC and Alternate CC members from 1921 to 2007Alternate CC members from 1921 to 2007

Each observation (row) represents one CC Each observation (row) represents one CC membermember

Columns keep track of all the basic Columns keep track of all the basic demographic variables: birth year, gender, demographic variables: birth year, gender, education level…etc.education level…etc.

Additional columns record positions held, Additional columns record positions held, start year, and end year (Adolph 2003)start year, and end year (Adolph 2003)

This creates a large database, but one can This creates a large database, but one can make logical statements to identify a make logical statements to identify a number of sub-populations among CC number of sub-populations among CC members.members.

A Look at the Original DataA Look at the Original Data

Member, secretariat

Chair, Mass Organization

Member, CAC

Vice-secretary, CAC

Some Problems and SolutionsSome Problems and Solutions Coding ErrorsCoding Errors

– Solution: Hire Two Coders to Code the Entire Solution: Hire Two Coders to Code the Entire Database SeparatelyDatabase Separately

Pre-1949 Positions Unclear, except for PartyPre-1949 Positions Unclear, except for Party– Solution: develop a detailed picture of the Solution: develop a detailed picture of the

evolution of the Red Army and party before evolution of the Red Army and party before 1949 (on-going)1949 (on-going)

Bureaucracies Shift Too muchBureaucracies Shift Too much– Solution: “Successor Principle” with some Solution: “Successor Principle” with some

caveatscaveats Too Many Positions in the Bureaucracy Too Many Positions in the Bureaucracy

(below ministerial level)(below ministerial level)– Solution: All positions are pegged to ministries, Solution: All positions are pegged to ministries,

provinces, MR, branches of PLAprovinces, MR, branches of PLA Overall, new information can easily be Overall, new information can easily be

incorporated by adding more columnsincorporated by adding more columns

Average Birth Year of CC MembersAverage Birth Year of CC Members

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000year

birth year, 25th percentile birth year, 75th percentileMean birth year of CC members

Average Education Level of CC MembersAverage Education Level of CC Members0

.51

1.5

22.

5m

ean

leve

l of e

duca

tion

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000year

Factional Influence Indicators (with Factional Influence Indicators (with Shan and Liu)Shan and Liu)

We record the share of CC members We record the share of CC members with birth, education, or work ties with with birth, education, or work ties with a PSC member.a PSC member.

Sounds simple, but it requires highly Sounds simple, but it requires highly complex logical statements to derive complex logical statements to derive an annual indicator because we need an annual indicator because we need to:to:– Select people who are CC members in a Select people who are CC members in a

particular year ANDparticular year AND– Select those with birth and education ties Select those with birth and education ties

with the PSC member ORwith the PSC member OR– Those who have worked at a particular Those who have worked at a particular

danwei danwei at the same time thatat the same time that the PSC the PSC member worked theremember worked there

Do the data accord with intuition? Hua Do the data accord with intuition? Hua Guofeng versus Hu YaobangGuofeng versus Hu Yaobang

.1.1

5.2

.25

.3.3

5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990year

Share of HYB Supporters in CC Share of Hua Supporters in CC

Jiang versus Qiao versus HuJiang versus Qiao versus Hu.1

.15

.2.2

5.3

.35

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year

jiang_share qiaoshi_share

hujintao_share

Chairman Mao: A ReinterpretationChairman Mao: A Reinterpretation.4

.5.6

.7.8

Sh

are

of C

C w

ith ti

es w

ith P

S o

r C

hai

rman

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980year

Mao Formally Takes Over

7th Party Congress

8th Party Congress

9th Party Congress

10th Party Congress

Who gets ahead in the CC? (with Who gets ahead in the CC? (with Adolph and Liu)Adolph and Liu)

CCP Rewards Growth?CCP Rewards Growth?

Does it pay to follow Hu Jintao?Does it pay to follow Hu Jintao?