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Q4 2007 TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Q4 2007 TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

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Q4 2007 TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008. TELUS forward looking statements. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Q4 2007 TELUS investor conference call

February 15, 2008

Page 2: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

This session and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward looking statements, except as required by law. In the case of annual guidance, the Company may at its sole discretion change its current practice of updating annual guidance.

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: competition (including more active price competition and the possibility of new wireless competition after the 2008 spectrum auction); economic growth and fluctuations (including pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels (including possible wireless spectrum asset purchases); financing and debt requirements (including funding acquisition purchases, share repurchases and debt financings); tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments; business integrations and internal reorganizations (including post-acquisition integration of Emergis); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, evolving wireline broadband and wireless next generation technology options and the possible need for prospective wireless sharing arrangements to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks); regulatory approvals and developments (including the essential services proceeding, spectrum auction, tower sharing and roaming rules, the new media proceeding and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any prospective acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com) and filings in the United States including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov).

For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ annual 2006 Management discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in section 10 of TELUS’ 2007 first, second, third and fourth quarter Management’s discussion and analyses.

TELUS forward looking statements

Page 3: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Darren Entwistlemember of the TELUS team

February 15, 2008

Q4 2007 TELUSinvestor conference call

Page 4: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Consolidated highlights – 2007

4

Record return on equity of 18%

Revenue growth of 4.5% led by wireless and data

Operating profit (EBITDA adjusted) up 4%

Maintained operating margin of 41% despite mid-year costs

Underlying 2007 EPS growth of 19%

Capital expenditures up 9% to $1.8 billion

Free cash flow remained strong at $1.6 billion

Page 5: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Strong record of returning capital

5

Shares repurchased in 2007

13.6 million shares for $750 million

Shares repurchased since Dec. 2004

53 million shares for $2.5 billion

New NCIB in 2008

up to 20 million shares

Dividends and share repurchases of $4 billion in 4 years

In 2007, returned $1.3 billion in dividends and share buybacks

$0.80

$1.50

$1.80

$1.10

2005 2006 2007 2008E1

33%

38%

36%

20%Increasing Annual Dividends

1. Annualized for 45 cent January and April dividends declared

Page 6: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireless highlights – 2007

6

Continued resiliency in wirelineChurn and wireless number portability areas of opportunity

Wireless revenue growth 10.5%

Data growth 59%

80% national coverage with EVDO network

Churn of 1.45% up primarily due to wireless number portability

Page 7: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

TELUS wireless subscriber additions

7

Fourth consecutive year of net additions greater than 500K

Gross additions (000s)

Net additions (000s)

985 1,017 987

1,121

1,279 1,293

1,434

418 418 431512

584535 515

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Page 8: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

4.9%

Canadian wireless industry subscriber growth

8

Industry trend remains robust

Population penetration

42%47%

52%56%

61%

4.1%4.4%

5.1%4.6%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Population penetration gain

Page 9: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Canada vs. US - wireless opportunity

9

6 million new clients expected over next 4 years

61%

Canada US

80%

19% x 33 million Canadians = 6 million clients for industry

Potential for growth

Page 10: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireline highlights – 2007

10

Healthy data revenues offsetting declining local and long distance revenues

Resilient wireline revenue

Data growth healthy at 8% to $1.8 billion

High-speed Internet subscribers up 11% to exceed one million

Continued traction in business and public sector

Page 11: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Moderate Network Access Line losses vs. peers

11

-3.0%-3.4%

-6.3%

-7.6%

-3.2%

-7.4%-8.1%

-5.0%

2006

2007

Other

Page 12: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireline highlights – 2007

12

Addressing the dynamics of the wireline industry

Investing in speed and coverage of broadband infrastructure

Deregulation in 75% of consumer and 67% of business markets

Focus on key industry verticals

Public sector, health care, financial services and energy

Emergis deal closed January 2008

Securing new contracts across Canada

Drives success based capital expenditures

Page 13: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

2008 corporate priorities

13

Drive profit from mobility services with a focus on data

Leverage forbearance to advance Future Friendly Home services

Build scale in vertical markets and leverage Emergis acquisition

Exact productivity gains from efficiency improvement initiatives

Elevate the client experience and build enhanced loyalty

Execute technology initiatives, including broadband and IT platforms

Focusing on core businesses and advancing the strategy through execution

Page 14: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer

February 15, 2008

Q4 2007 TELUSinvestor conference call

Page 15: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireless segment – Q4 2007 financial results

15

($M) Q4-061 Q4-07 Change

Revenue 1,020 1,110 8.8%

EBITDA (reported)2 432 491 14%

EBITDA margin 42% 44% 2 pts

Capital expenditures 106 136 28%

1 Comparative results for 2006 have been corrected for a change in employee future benefits transitional pension asset accounting. Correction decreased pension expense by $24.7 million in each year from 2000 to 2006.

2 EBITDA includes a recovery of $0.9M in Q4-07 for net cash settlement feature of options granted prior to 2005. Excluding this charge, EBITDA (as adjusted) increased by 13.4%.

Subscriber growth drives revenue higher while acquisition costs improve

Page 16: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

wireless subscribers

Postpaid 80%

Prepaid 20%

net additions

Q4-06 Q4-071 5.57 million total

4.4M

1.1M

Wireless subscriber results

Total subs up 10%, with strong postpaid mix

16

prepaid

postpaid161K182K

71%66%

1 Prepaid net additions in Q4-07 included a one-time reduction of 5.1K to clean up deactivation records

Page 17: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireless ARPU

Data ARPU

Q4-07

$63.70

Wireless data revenue of $131M, up 43%

17

Voice$64.50

Q4-06

58.34

7.95

55.75

6.16

Page 18: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireless marketing efficiency

Reduced COA contributed to margin expansion

18

Q4-06 Q4-07 change

Churn 1.33 1.59 0.26 pts

Marketing expenses $135M $120M 11%

COA $436 $352 19%

COA / lifetime revenue 9.0% 8.8% 0.2pts

Page 19: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireline revenue profile

19

($M) Q4-06 Q4-07 Change

Voice – Local 527 505 (4.2)%

Voice – Long Distance 198 179 (9.6)%

Data 435 466 7.2%

Other 74 70 (5.5)%

Total External Revenue 1,234 1,220 (1.1)%

Good data growth offset by legacy declines

Page 20: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireline segment – Q4 2007 financial results

20

($M) Q4-061 Q4-07 Change

Revenue 1,234 1,220 (1.1)%

EBITDA (reported)2 452 462 2.2%

EBITDA margin 36% 37% 1.2 pts

Capital expenditures 309 337 9%

EBITDA up 2% on margin expansion

1 Comparative results for 2006 have been corrected for a change in employee future benefits transitional pension asset accounting. Correction decreased pension expense by $24.7 million in each year from 2000 to 2006.

2 EBITDA includes $1.5M expense in Q4-07 for net-cash settlement feature of options. Excluding this expense EBITDA (as adjusted) increased 2.6%

Page 21: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

1.18 million total

Internet subscribers

High-speed87%

Dial-up13%

High-speed Internet net additions

Q4-06 Q4-07

1M

155K

Internet subscribers

Challenging quarter for high-speed net adds, base up 11%

21

44K

26K

Page 22: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

% of network access lines lost (yr. over yr.)

Q2-06

-2.6%

Q3-06

-2.8%

Q4-06

-3.0%

Network access line results

-2.9%

Q1-07

Stable overall line losses – strong results relative to peers

22

-3.1%

Q2-07 Q3-07

-3.0% -3.2%

Q4-07

Page 23: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Wireless

High-speed Internet

Dial-up Internet

Res NALs

Bus NALs

(millions)11.110.7

Q4-07Q4-06

10.2

Q4-05

TELUS total customer connections

23

Wireless and Internet represent 60% of total connections

Page 24: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Consolidated – Q4 2007 financial results

24

($M excluding EPS) Q4-061 Q4-07 Change

Revenue 2,255 2,331 3.4%

EBITDA (reported)2 884 953 7.8%

EPS (reported) 0.71 1.23 73%

EPS (as adj. excl. tax adjustments) 0.65 0.79 22%

Capital Expenditures 415 473 14%

Good increase in operating earnings and EPS

1 Comparative results for 2006 have been corrected for a change in employee future benefits transitional pension asset accounting. Correction decreased pension expense by $24.7 million in each year from 2000 to 2006.

2 EBITDA includes an expense of $0.6M in Q4-07 for net cash settlement feature of options granted prior to 2005. Excluding this expense, EBITDA (as adjusted) increased by 7.9%

Page 25: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Q4-06

Other(incl.

lower avg o/s shares)

Net tax related adj.

EPS continuity

25

Q4-07Financing expenses

$1.23

EBITDA

Dep’n & Amort

$0.71

0.38

0.13 0.050.05

Underlying EPS growth of 22%

0.09

Page 26: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Share buy backs – Normal Course Issuer Bid

26

Q4-07 2007Since NCIB inception

Total investment (M) $147.5 $750 $2,520

Total shares (M) 3.1 13.6 52.9

Outstanding shares (M) - 324.3 34.1

% change in o/s shares(end of period)

4.0%

YoY

9.5%

Since Dec-04

Shares outstanding down 4% in 2007 and 9.5% since inception

Page 27: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Emergis and financing update

Closed $743 million acquisition of Emergis on January 17

11.5 months of Emergis results included for 2008

Pro forma net debt to EBITDA of 1.9x

Accepted commitments for a new $700 million 364-day revolving credit facility

No significant debt maturing until 2011

TELUS has strong liquidity and balance sheet

27

Page 28: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

2008 consolidated targets* unchanged

2008 targets

Revenue $9,600 to 9,800M

EBITDA $3,800 to 3,950M

EPS $3.50 to $3.80

Capex Approx. $1,900M

Reaffirming 2008 consolidated and segmented targets

*See forward looking statement caution

28

Page 29: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

Questions?

investor [email protected]

Page 30: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

$(129.9)

$231.1

(6.2)

5.1

(415.2)

$884.3

Q4-06

$(21.3)

$437.5

2.8

122.3

(472.5)

$953.4

Q4-07

Funds avail. for debt redemption

Free cash flow (before cash settled option pmt)

Restructuring payments (net of expense)

Cash income taxes; and other

Capex

EBITDA

($M)

(218.2) (138.5)Interest expense paid

(10.2) (20.9)Non-cash portion of share-based compensation

(127.2) (269.9)Dividends

21.6 0.2Share Issuance (non-public)

$13.9 $18.9Net change in cash

(6.2) 90.2Net debt issuance / (repayment)

Working capital & other (55.9) (31.9)

(199.5) (147.5)Purchase of shares for cancellation (NCIB)

Appendix – Free cash flow (2007 definition)

(8.5) (9.1)Cash related to other expenses

Free cash flow $231.1 $427.8

Cash settled options paid - (9.7)

150 (50.0)Accounts Receivable Securitization

Page 31: Q4 2007  TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008

EBITDA: Earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before

interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue

Cash flow: EBITDA less capex

Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs,

cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share

compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital

expenditures, cash restructuring payments, and cash related to Other expenses

such as charitable donations and securitization fees

Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often

presented as a percentage of network revenue

Appendix - definitions

TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measure