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Q4 2007 TELUS investor conference call February 15, 2008. TELUS forward looking statements. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Q4 2007 TELUS investor conference call
February 15, 2008
This session and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward looking statements, except as required by law. In the case of annual guidance, the Company may at its sole discretion change its current practice of updating annual guidance.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: competition (including more active price competition and the possibility of new wireless competition after the 2008 spectrum auction); economic growth and fluctuations (including pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels (including possible wireless spectrum asset purchases); financing and debt requirements (including funding acquisition purchases, share repurchases and debt financings); tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments; business integrations and internal reorganizations (including post-acquisition integration of Emergis); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, evolving wireline broadband and wireless next generation technology options and the possible need for prospective wireless sharing arrangements to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks); regulatory approvals and developments (including the essential services proceeding, spectrum auction, tower sharing and roaming rules, the new media proceeding and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any prospective acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com) and filings in the United States including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov).
For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ annual 2006 Management discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in section 10 of TELUS’ 2007 first, second, third and fourth quarter Management’s discussion and analyses.
TELUS forward looking statements
Darren Entwistlemember of the TELUS team
February 15, 2008
Q4 2007 TELUSinvestor conference call
Consolidated highlights – 2007
4
Record return on equity of 18%
Revenue growth of 4.5% led by wireless and data
Operating profit (EBITDA adjusted) up 4%
Maintained operating margin of 41% despite mid-year costs
Underlying 2007 EPS growth of 19%
Capital expenditures up 9% to $1.8 billion
Free cash flow remained strong at $1.6 billion
Strong record of returning capital
5
Shares repurchased in 2007
13.6 million shares for $750 million
Shares repurchased since Dec. 2004
53 million shares for $2.5 billion
New NCIB in 2008
up to 20 million shares
Dividends and share repurchases of $4 billion in 4 years
In 2007, returned $1.3 billion in dividends and share buybacks
$0.80
$1.50
$1.80
$1.10
2005 2006 2007 2008E1
33%
38%
36%
20%Increasing Annual Dividends
1. Annualized for 45 cent January and April dividends declared
Wireless highlights – 2007
6
Continued resiliency in wirelineChurn and wireless number portability areas of opportunity
Wireless revenue growth 10.5%
Data growth 59%
80% national coverage with EVDO network
Churn of 1.45% up primarily due to wireless number portability
TELUS wireless subscriber additions
7
Fourth consecutive year of net additions greater than 500K
Gross additions (000s)
Net additions (000s)
985 1,017 987
1,121
1,279 1,293
1,434
418 418 431512
584535 515
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
4.9%
Canadian wireless industry subscriber growth
8
Industry trend remains robust
Population penetration
42%47%
52%56%
61%
4.1%4.4%
5.1%4.6%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Population penetration gain
Canada vs. US - wireless opportunity
9
6 million new clients expected over next 4 years
61%
Canada US
80%
19% x 33 million Canadians = 6 million clients for industry
Potential for growth
Wireline highlights – 2007
10
Healthy data revenues offsetting declining local and long distance revenues
Resilient wireline revenue
Data growth healthy at 8% to $1.8 billion
High-speed Internet subscribers up 11% to exceed one million
Continued traction in business and public sector
Moderate Network Access Line losses vs. peers
11
-3.0%-3.4%
-6.3%
-7.6%
-3.2%
-7.4%-8.1%
-5.0%
2006
2007
Other
Wireline highlights – 2007
12
Addressing the dynamics of the wireline industry
Investing in speed and coverage of broadband infrastructure
Deregulation in 75% of consumer and 67% of business markets
Focus on key industry verticals
Public sector, health care, financial services and energy
Emergis deal closed January 2008
Securing new contracts across Canada
Drives success based capital expenditures
2008 corporate priorities
13
Drive profit from mobility services with a focus on data
Leverage forbearance to advance Future Friendly Home services
Build scale in vertical markets and leverage Emergis acquisition
Exact productivity gains from efficiency improvement initiatives
Elevate the client experience and build enhanced loyalty
Execute technology initiatives, including broadband and IT platforms
Focusing on core businesses and advancing the strategy through execution
Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer
February 15, 2008
Q4 2007 TELUSinvestor conference call
Wireless segment – Q4 2007 financial results
15
($M) Q4-061 Q4-07 Change
Revenue 1,020 1,110 8.8%
EBITDA (reported)2 432 491 14%
EBITDA margin 42% 44% 2 pts
Capital expenditures 106 136 28%
1 Comparative results for 2006 have been corrected for a change in employee future benefits transitional pension asset accounting. Correction decreased pension expense by $24.7 million in each year from 2000 to 2006.
2 EBITDA includes a recovery of $0.9M in Q4-07 for net cash settlement feature of options granted prior to 2005. Excluding this charge, EBITDA (as adjusted) increased by 13.4%.
Subscriber growth drives revenue higher while acquisition costs improve
wireless subscribers
Postpaid 80%
Prepaid 20%
net additions
Q4-06 Q4-071 5.57 million total
4.4M
1.1M
Wireless subscriber results
Total subs up 10%, with strong postpaid mix
16
prepaid
postpaid161K182K
71%66%
1 Prepaid net additions in Q4-07 included a one-time reduction of 5.1K to clean up deactivation records
Wireless ARPU
Data ARPU
Q4-07
$63.70
Wireless data revenue of $131M, up 43%
17
Voice$64.50
Q4-06
58.34
7.95
55.75
6.16
Wireless marketing efficiency
Reduced COA contributed to margin expansion
18
Q4-06 Q4-07 change
Churn 1.33 1.59 0.26 pts
Marketing expenses $135M $120M 11%
COA $436 $352 19%
COA / lifetime revenue 9.0% 8.8% 0.2pts
Wireline revenue profile
19
($M) Q4-06 Q4-07 Change
Voice – Local 527 505 (4.2)%
Voice – Long Distance 198 179 (9.6)%
Data 435 466 7.2%
Other 74 70 (5.5)%
Total External Revenue 1,234 1,220 (1.1)%
Good data growth offset by legacy declines
Wireline segment – Q4 2007 financial results
20
($M) Q4-061 Q4-07 Change
Revenue 1,234 1,220 (1.1)%
EBITDA (reported)2 452 462 2.2%
EBITDA margin 36% 37% 1.2 pts
Capital expenditures 309 337 9%
EBITDA up 2% on margin expansion
1 Comparative results for 2006 have been corrected for a change in employee future benefits transitional pension asset accounting. Correction decreased pension expense by $24.7 million in each year from 2000 to 2006.
2 EBITDA includes $1.5M expense in Q4-07 for net-cash settlement feature of options. Excluding this expense EBITDA (as adjusted) increased 2.6%
1.18 million total
Internet subscribers
High-speed87%
Dial-up13%
High-speed Internet net additions
Q4-06 Q4-07
1M
155K
Internet subscribers
Challenging quarter for high-speed net adds, base up 11%
21
44K
26K
% of network access lines lost (yr. over yr.)
Q2-06
-2.6%
Q3-06
-2.8%
Q4-06
-3.0%
Network access line results
-2.9%
Q1-07
Stable overall line losses – strong results relative to peers
22
-3.1%
Q2-07 Q3-07
-3.0% -3.2%
Q4-07
Wireless
High-speed Internet
Dial-up Internet
Res NALs
Bus NALs
(millions)11.110.7
Q4-07Q4-06
10.2
Q4-05
TELUS total customer connections
23
Wireless and Internet represent 60% of total connections
Consolidated – Q4 2007 financial results
24
($M excluding EPS) Q4-061 Q4-07 Change
Revenue 2,255 2,331 3.4%
EBITDA (reported)2 884 953 7.8%
EPS (reported) 0.71 1.23 73%
EPS (as adj. excl. tax adjustments) 0.65 0.79 22%
Capital Expenditures 415 473 14%
Good increase in operating earnings and EPS
1 Comparative results for 2006 have been corrected for a change in employee future benefits transitional pension asset accounting. Correction decreased pension expense by $24.7 million in each year from 2000 to 2006.
2 EBITDA includes an expense of $0.6M in Q4-07 for net cash settlement feature of options granted prior to 2005. Excluding this expense, EBITDA (as adjusted) increased by 7.9%
Q4-06
Other(incl.
lower avg o/s shares)
Net tax related adj.
EPS continuity
25
Q4-07Financing expenses
$1.23
EBITDA
Dep’n & Amort
$0.71
0.38
0.13 0.050.05
Underlying EPS growth of 22%
0.09
Share buy backs – Normal Course Issuer Bid
26
Q4-07 2007Since NCIB inception
Total investment (M) $147.5 $750 $2,520
Total shares (M) 3.1 13.6 52.9
Outstanding shares (M) - 324.3 34.1
% change in o/s shares(end of period)
4.0%
YoY
9.5%
Since Dec-04
Shares outstanding down 4% in 2007 and 9.5% since inception
Emergis and financing update
Closed $743 million acquisition of Emergis on January 17
11.5 months of Emergis results included for 2008
Pro forma net debt to EBITDA of 1.9x
Accepted commitments for a new $700 million 364-day revolving credit facility
No significant debt maturing until 2011
TELUS has strong liquidity and balance sheet
27
2008 consolidated targets* unchanged
2008 targets
Revenue $9,600 to 9,800M
EBITDA $3,800 to 3,950M
EPS $3.50 to $3.80
Capex Approx. $1,900M
Reaffirming 2008 consolidated and segmented targets
*See forward looking statement caution
28
Questions?
investor [email protected]
$(129.9)
$231.1
(6.2)
5.1
(415.2)
$884.3
Q4-06
$(21.3)
$437.5
2.8
122.3
(472.5)
$953.4
Q4-07
Funds avail. for debt redemption
Free cash flow (before cash settled option pmt)
Restructuring payments (net of expense)
Cash income taxes; and other
Capex
EBITDA
($M)
(218.2) (138.5)Interest expense paid
(10.2) (20.9)Non-cash portion of share-based compensation
(127.2) (269.9)Dividends
21.6 0.2Share Issuance (non-public)
$13.9 $18.9Net change in cash
(6.2) 90.2Net debt issuance / (repayment)
Working capital & other (55.9) (31.9)
(199.5) (147.5)Purchase of shares for cancellation (NCIB)
Appendix – Free cash flow (2007 definition)
(8.5) (9.1)Cash related to other expenses
Free cash flow $231.1 $427.8
Cash settled options paid - (9.7)
150 (50.0)Accounts Receivable Securitization
EBITDA: Earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before
interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue
Cash flow: EBITDA less capex
Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs,
cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share
compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital
expenditures, cash restructuring payments, and cash related to Other expenses
such as charitable donations and securitization fees
Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often
presented as a percentage of network revenue
Appendix - definitions
TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measure