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Q3.16 Financial Results
November 23, 2016
1 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be
accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in
this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty.
Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been
obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any
such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are
subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information
contained herein.
In addition, certain of these data come from the Group’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge
and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying
methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you
should not place undue reliance on them.
Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are
subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties
include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are
cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be
construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to
pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are
advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect
the Group’s view only as of the date hereof.
Legal
Important Notice – Forward Looking Information
Table of Contents
1 Financial Highlights
2 Liquidity
3 Profitability
4 Asset quality
5 Capital
6 Macro
7 Appendix
Financial Highlights
1
4 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
€ m 9M16 9M15 yoy 3Q16 2Q16 qoq
NII 1 446 1 431 +1% 485 482 +1%
Fees & Commissions1 222 215 +3% 73 76 -4%
Pillar-2 costs (51) (143) -64% (6) (15) -61%
Insurance income 52 83 -37% 12 23 -50%
Trading & other income (61) (208) -71% (13) (43) -70%
Income 1 608 1 379 +17% 551 524 +5%
Operating Expenses (947) (966) -2% (318) (319) 0%
Core PPI 723 620 +17% 245 247 -1%
PPI 662 412 +61% 232 205 +14%
Provisions (547) (2 936) -81% (182) (208) -12%
Operating Profit 114 (2 524) n/m 51 (3) n/m
Other impairments (66) (223) -71% (20) (12) 74%
PBT 48 (2 746) n/m 31 (15) n/m
Taxes (23) 1 053 n/m (8) (9) -12%
PAT (cont. ops) 26 (1 694) n/m 23 (23) n/m
PAT (discount. ops) (2,957) (444) >100% - (3.028) n/m
Minorities (28) (27) +3% (7) (10) -31%
Other one-offs - (9) -100% - - n/m
Attributable PAT2 (2,959) (2 174) +36% 16 (3.062) n/m
P&L Highlights
1. Excludes Pillar-2 costs
2. Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income related to Finansbank. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has
no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in Q2.16
9M16 Group PAT from continuing operations in the black at € 26m
Highlights
Group P&L
Group 9M16 PAT from continuing operations reaches €26m vs
losses of €1.7b in 9M15. This result reflects improving trends in the
domestic as well as the SEE businesses
• 9M16 Group core income reaches €1.67b, up by 5% yoy, driven by
domestic funding cost improvements deriving from the elimination of
Pillar 2 and 3 exposure, reduction of ELA funding and the repricing of
time deposits; Q3.16 Group core income stood at €563m (flat qoq)
reflecting higher NII (+1% qoq) and fees (+10% qoq) as well as lower
income from insurance (-€12m qoq, or -50% qoq) due to the hit from
lower interest rates on reserves
• 9M16 Group OpEx, down by 2% yoy, was driven by personnel (-1%
yoy) and G&A (-5% yoy); imminent VRS will accelerate cost
containment; Q3 domestic costs at €252m, flat qoq
• Q3 Group credit risk charges stood at 191bps, coming in 25bps lower
qoq. Domestic and Group CoR at 198bps and 189bps respectively in
9M16
• SEE business PAT contribution reaches €79m in 9M16, up by 92% yoy
5 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Favorable NPE reduction trend is sustained, liquidity profile improves further
Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group
3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15
Liquidity
L/D ratio 89% 91% 92% 91% 96%
ELA exposure (€ bn) 5.1 6.1 11.0 11.5 15.6
o/w Pillar exposure
(nominal)2 0 2.4 7.1 11.8 18.0
Profitability
NIM (bps) 293 285 280 280 279
Cost / Core income 57% 56% 57% 64% 64%
Asset quality
NPE ratio 44.2% 45.8% 47.3% 46.8% 45.1%
NPE coverage ratio 56.3% 54.3% 53.0% 52.8% 52.2%
Cost of Risk (bps) 191 216 162 746 251
Capital
CET1 phased-in 16.9%1 16.8%3 17.2%4 17.5%4 9.6%
CET1 ratio CRD4 FL 16.3%1 16.2%3 16.7%4 16.8%4 8.8%
RWAs (€ bn) 40.21 40.53 40.44 40.34 60.7
1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and CoCos repayment,
2. Pillar II zero as of July 2016
3. Pro-forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments and CoCos repayment
4. Pro forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments, Finansbank sale and CoCos repayment
Highlights
Further ELA reduction to just €4.5b currently
• ELA has been slashed by an impressive €13b since the imposition of capital controls,
reaching €4.5b in November
• Full P&L impact of Pillar II and III exposure elimination (July 2016) on profitability to apply
from 4Q16 onwards; total annualized fee saving of €200m vs FY.15 fee charge
• L:D ratio drops further to 89% in Greece reflecting favorable deposit trends in Q3 (+€0.3b)
as well as deleveraging of the balance sheet
Domestic NPE stock reduction continues unabated in Q3, -€1.0b qoq
• The pace of NPE reduction continues (-€1.0bn qoq), resulting in an impressive ytd
reduction of €1.9b, reflecting favorable curing trends and write offs
• FNPEs less than 30dpd at €3.3b, are a large potential pool for future curing
• 90dpd retail formation remained negative for yet another quarter (-€92m) reflecting
improving gross formation as the pace of restructurings slowed in Q3
• On the corporate side, formation reached €280m, reflecting a handful of large corporate
exposure defaults
• Domestic credit charges CoR at 198bps in 9M16; NPE and NPL coverage at an industry
leading 57% and 75% respectively
CET 1 pro forma1 ratio at 16.9%
• CET1 ratio on a CRD IV FL basis at 16.3%1, excluding CoCos
• Group RWAs at 40.2b1 of which €34.4b in Greece (phased in)
• Capital adequacy to be enhanced materially by implementation of the RP
Liquidity
2
7 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Eurosystem funding (€ b)
1. Latest available data
2. Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds
ELA has been reduced by €13b since June 2015 to just €4.5b currently
Liquidity
Peer group analysis1: liquidity position (Group)
14.2
9.8 10.0 10.1
12.5 11.8
8.97.5 6.8
13.9
17.615.6 11.5
11.0
6.1
5.14.5
14.2
23.6
27.6
25.6
24.0
22.8
14.9
12.6
11.3
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Nov '16
4.5
12.5
15.4
13.1
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
6% 24% 22%ELA /
Assets2
L:D ratio 89% 117%144%
18%
123%
ELA
exposure
(€ b)
ELA
ECB
€4.8b in
outstanding
interbank
repos
8 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Eurosystem collateral cash values (€ bn) | Nov. 2016
Pillar II and III exposure fully repaid; full P&L impact to be reflected in Q4
Liquidity
ELA outstanding: Pillar II & Pillar III fully repaid
9.9
6.4
3.8
1.8
5.7
5.1
7.2
4.3
15.6
11.511.0
6.1
5.14.5
10.1
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Nov '16 Undrawn
liquidity
Other ELA
collateral
(cash value)
Pillar-2 & 3
bonds
(cash value)
EFSF / ESM
4.9
Other
1.9 0.8
11.4
2.4
14.6
Cov. bonds
Credit claims
Other
ECB:
€ 6.8b
Cash value of eligible collateral:
€ 21.4b
No Pillar
exposure
9 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
-2.2
-4.8
-3.6
0.30.8
-0.9
0.00.3
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Deposit evolution by geography (€ b)
35.8 36.6 35.7 35.7 36.0
6.1 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.6
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Domestic deposits increase by €0.3b in Q3, driven by private flows
Liquidity
Greek deposit flows per quarter (€ b)
YoY
+0.4%
+8.9%
Group
SEE &
Other
Greece
41.9 43.0 42.0 42.2 42.6 +1.6%
+2.2% -2.5% 0%
-€10.6 b +€0.5 b
+0.8%
10 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
44.9 44.7 44.3 44.0 43.3
7.6 7.3 7.2 7.1 7.1
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
94%
90%91% 91%
89%
96%
91%92%
104%
97%96%
92%
91%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
L:D ratio evolution
1: system estimate excludes NBG’s contribution
L:D ratio drops below 90%, well below the system1 at c.135%, providing room to
lever up
Gross loan evolution by geography (€ b)
Liquidity
Group
Greece
SEE &
Other
SEE &
other
Greece
52.5 52.0 51.5 51.1 50.4
YoY
-3.6%
-6.0%
-3.9%Group
-0.5% -0.9% -0.7% -1.6%
Peers’ average domestic
L:D ratio: 135%
Write-offs:
€ 0.2b qoq
€ 0.5b yoy
Profitability
3
12 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
185 247 255 255
-1,071
-198 -231 -201
9M15 9M16 1 2Q16 3Q16
Domestic Core PPI margin (bps)
Domestic Core PPI bridge (€ m)Group Core PPI decomposition by region (€ m)
9M16 domestic Core PPI of €0.60b, up by 22% yoy; Q3 core operating margin at
54bps vs 49bps in 9M16
Profitability
139 153189 207 205
494
601
4137
4240 40
126
122
180 190
231247 245
620
723
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 9M15 9M16
GRE SEE & Other
207 +3
-14
+9
0205
2Q16 ΔNII Δfees &
Insurance
Δ Pillar II costs ΔOpEx 3Q16
o/w: € -12m
from Insurance
Core PPI
margin
CoR
+21.6%
+16.6%
YoY
49 24 54Core operating
margin
13 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
SEE & Other
Greece
389 392 396 400 403
267 269 268 274 284
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
NII (€m) NIM (bps)
Domestic NII picks up qoq on the back of improving funding costs, offsetting
deleveraging impact
Profitability
Domestic NII quarterly evolution (€ m)
Domestic NII breakdown
400
-6
+2 +18
-4 -7
403
2Q16 Δloans Δdepos ΔEurosystem
& wholesale
ΔSecurities Subs & other 3Q16
83 82 83 83 82
356 355 361 355 345
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
NII (€m) NIM (bps)
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Loans 434 411 395 384 378
Deposits -80 -69 -55 -46 -44
Bonds 85 86 85 83 79
Eurosystem & wholesale -58 -49 -40 -36 -18
Subs & other 10 13 11 14 7
Total 389 392 396 400 403
Excludes +€9m
funding cost
savings qoq
from reduced
Pillar II
exposure
accounted for
in fees
Negatively
affected by
€7m due to
repayment of
the sub-debt
extended to
Finansbank
14 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
16.4 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.7
6.57.4 6.6 6.8 7.2
13.011.8 11.5 11.1 11.1
35.8 36.635.7 35.7 36.0
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Time
Sight &
other
Savings
+0.9% qoq
Greek deposit yields (bps)
25 24 2420 20
185
163
132
113
103
90
77
62
5147
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Time deposit yields drop by another 10bps qoq, total deposit cost at 47bps
Profitability
Greek deposits evolution (€ b)
Time
Total
New production
yield
at 69 bps
64% 68% 68% 69% 69% Core deposits/total
Mkt share 36%
Core
15 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Greek lending yields (bps)
262 264 261 258 256
934956 953 947 947
673658
672650 648
421 420 421 417 414
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Asset yields stabilize while deleveraging continues in Q3
Profitability
Greek loan evolution (€ b)
17.8 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.1
5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.1
4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9
17.6 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.2
44.9 44.7 44.3 44.0 43.3
408 408 409 404 402
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Corporate
SBL
Consumer
Mortgages
Consumer
SBLs
Corporate
Mortgages
Total lending yield (bps)
-1.6% qoq
33.8 33.0 32.5 32.4 31.9 Net loans
Gross loans
16 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
2 4 4 51
56 5 5
7
20
2422 23
23
13
1517
1716
3
2 33
2
1926
1622
10
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Insurance
Fund management
Banking fees
Corporate lending
Retail lending
Custody, brokerage
inv. Banking
4250 50 52 50
21
29
1823
12
23
24
23
24
23
86
103
91
99
85
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Greece1
SEE &
Other
Insurance
Group fees & insurance income (€ m)
1. Excl. Pillar fee charges
Excluding Insurance, the drop in domestic fees is due to pressure on capital market
related fees
Profitability
Domestic fees1 & insurance decomposition (€ m)
-53 -54 -30 -15 -6 Pillar 2 cost
0.42% 0.50% 0.44% 0.47% 0.41% Fees1/Assets
50
42
62 76 66 74 60
-5%
-54%
qoq
Total
Total1
5250
-19%
50
Technical result affected
by lower interest rates
17 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
65%
63%
56%55% 55%
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Domestic OpEx evolution (€ m)
Group OpEx by category (€ m)
Domestic 9M16 costs down by 3% yoy
Profitability
Headcount evolution (‘000)
Domestic cost-to-core income evolution
Greece Group
9M16 9M15 yoy 9M16 9M15 yoy
Personnel 490 497 -1.4% 594 598 -0.7%
G&As 185 198 -6.9% 265 279 -4.9%
Depreciation 72 73 -0.3% 88 90 -2.0%
Total 747 768 -2.7% 947 966 -2.0%
163 168 161 163 166
96 9482 88 86
259 262243 251 252
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
15.012.2 12.0 12.3
10.1
7.9 7.8 7.7
25.1
20.1 19.8 20.1
FY09 1 FY14 FY15 3Q16
G&A &
other
Staff
SEE &
Other
Greece
o/w:
Astir: 0.5k
Insurance: 0.8k
18 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Operating profit evolution (€ m)
SEE contributes €79m in Group 9m PAT, +92% yoy
Profitability
SEE headline figures
P&L items (€ m) 3Q16 2Q16 qoq 9M16 9M15 yoy
NII 82 83 -1.2% 247 250 -1.2%
Core income 106 107 -1.2% 321 324 -0.8%
OpEx (67) (67) -1.3% (200) (198) 0.6%
PPI 52 50 +3.6% 157 132 19.2%
Provisions (20) (20) -1.5% (64) (79) -18.7%
Operating profit 32 30 +5.0% 93 53 75.3%
Net profit after min. 27 25 +7.2% 79 41 92.2%
42 40
55
50 52
-23
-68
-24-20 -20
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Pre-provision income Provisions
18
-28
31 30 32
Operating
profit
Selective ratios 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15
Liquidity
L/D ratio 91% 92% 96% 97% 104%
Profitability
NIM (bps) 345 355 361 355 356
Cost / Core income 63% 63% 61% 66% 62%
Asset quality
90dpd ratio 26.3% 26.5% 27.0% 26.8% 28.3%
90dpd coverage ratio 60.1% 59.1% 58.3% 57.4% 56.3%
Cost of Risk (bps) 136 133 155 438 147
Asset quality
4
20 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Remaining NPE reduction to 2019 at €6.5b (€ b)
NPE operational targets are feasible Parent NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) (€ b)
21.5-1.9
-6.5 13.1
FY15 Already achieved Remaining FY19
On track to deliver NPE/NPL operational targets
Asset quality
• Operational targets submitted to the SSM call for a reduction of
NPLs and NPEs by €7.4b and €8.5b corresponding to a reduction of
c.50% and 40% respectively
• Upon achieving these targets in 2019, NBG will have reduced its
NPL and NPE ratios by ca.15ppts, with NPE coverage around the
50% mark
• NBG has already reduced NPEs by €1.9b ytd relative to a targeted
reduction throughout the forecast period of €8.5b
15.2 15.3 15.0 14.9
7.7
6.4 0.0 6.2-0.9 5.6
-1.04.7
-6.55.4
21.5 21.520.6
19.6
13.1
FY15 1 1Q16 2 2Q16 3 3Q16 4 FY19
-8.5
NPLs
NPEs
NPE reduction target
Target: -8.5
21 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
15.2 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.3
6.1 6.7 6.6 5.9 4.8
21.3 22.0 22.0 21.120.1
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
FNPEs & other
impaired
90dpd
Domestic NPE stock evolution (€ b)
Domestic NPE stock movement (€ b)Domestic NPE stock per category – 3Q16 (€ b)
NPE reduction is sustained in Q3, as NPEs drop by €1b reflecting favorable
collection trends, curing and write-offs; ytd NPE stock reduces by a solid €2b
Asset quality
47.4% 49.2% 49.6% 47.9% 46.4%NPE ratio
5.4
2.9 2.4
4.6
1.6
0.50.3
2.4
7.0
3.32.7
6.9
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate
FNPE & other
impaired
90dpd
15.3
20.1
22.0
-0.6-0.3
21.1
-0.7-0.2
20.1
NPEs
1Q16
Net NPE
formation
write-offs NPEs
2Q16
Net NPE
formation
write-offs NPEs
3Q16
22 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Domestic NPE ratios and coverage per segment
Domestic 90dpd ratios per segment
1. Bank level
€3.3b of FNPEs less than 30dpd constitute prime candidates for curing
Asset quality
Domestic forborne stock breakdown (€ bn)
Domestic 90dpd – NPE bridge (€ bn)
Cash
coverage
Cash
coverage
13% 53% 48% 26% 26%LLAs/
Gross loans
15.3
3.3 0.7 0.8 20.1
90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE 31-90 Other impaired NPEs
42%
95%76%
98% 75% 73%
31%
55%
63%
27%
35% 34%
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group
32%
82%67%
65% 57% 56%
41%
64%71%
40%46% 44%
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group
FNPE<30 dpd
3.3
FNPE 31-90dpd
0.7
FNPE >90dpd
3.1
FPE 2.8
9.9
Collateral
coverage178% 8% 51% 53% 54%
SEE & other:
90dpd ratio: 26%
Coverage: 60%
SEE & other:
NPE ratio: 31%
Coverage: 51%
23 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Domestic 90dpd restructuring flows (€ m)
Peer Group analysis3: asset quality (Group) Domestic 90dpd formation and provisions
1. CoR (bps) adjusted for AQR charges, calculated on net loans
2. Texas Ratio: (NPLs-Provisions)/TBV
3. Peer comparison is based on latest available data
Domestic CoR drops by 30bps qoq to 201bps over net loans; Group CoR at 191bps
Asset quality
406
86126
2
188232
671
134188 162
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
90dpd flows (€ m) Provisions (€ m)
271 329 164 231 201CoR1
(bps)
Includes
AQR
510
812
609
381 358
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
73%68% 69%
66%
34%
39%38%
35%
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
0.7x 1.1x 0.9x 1.1x
Coverage
ratio
90dpd
ratio
Texas
ratio2
6.9 7.5 8.5 5.4 TBV (€ b)
Unprovided
NPLs (€ b)4.4 8.2 7.3 6.1
24 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Mortgages (€ m)
Asset quality
Domestic retail formation remains negative, new corporate NPLs already within the
NPE perimeter
Consumer (€ m) Total domestic 90dpd formation (€ m)
SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)
122
-133 -117
-70
-32
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
76
-22 -26-19
-8
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
35
-3
10
-13
-523Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
173
246 260
106
280
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
406
86
126
2
188
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
25 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Corporate Balance (€bn)of which
(denounced)#Clients FTEs
Large Corporates 1.7 0.5 400 35
SMEs 2.6 1.4 4,040 96
SBL(Legal Entities) 1.4 0.8 12,671 96
Legal, Control & Operational 55
Total 5.7 2.7 17,111 282
Dedicated and independent internal units for retail collections and corporate NPL
management
Corporate NPL Management
Special Assets Unit (“SAU”) is a centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility for the
management of corporate NPLs with:
− Vertically integrated management to ensure single point accountability and
efficient decision making
− Dedicated SAU RMs and separate Credit Committees
− Clear prioritisation strategy based on ageing, size, collateralisation levels and
legal status
− Internally developed tools to prioritise alternative strategies and assess debtors’
viability
− Short-term and longer-term target setting and RM productivity monitored
monthly
− Certain corporate exposures are managed by the business unit
Overview of Portfolio (30.09.2016)
Retail Collections Unit
Retail Collections Unit (“RCU”) is an independent unit focused on management of
retail NPLs and collections
− Centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility
− Strategy differentiated by customer segmentation: collecting in early buckets,
restructuring subsequently, legal actions according to selection criteria, and
settlements for >360dpd
− New restructuring products designed to ensure solution sustainability based on
PTI and on client’s disposable income after subtracting reasonable living
expenses
− Tight performance monitoring of internal collection center and external
agents and lawyers through comprehensive KPIs
− Champion/challenger tactics frequently employed to test new segment strategies
based on cohort attributes (profession, income, dpd, collateral)
Retail Balance (€bn) Treatment Clients (‘000) FTE
Mortgages 7.0 Collections 107 225
Consumer 3.3 Restructuring 49 159
Micro-SBL 1.2 Legal/ 223 338
Settlements
Total 11.6 379 721
Branches (execution) 867
Various support functions 125
c. 2,000 FTEs deployed in
collections and NPL
management
Source: NBG
Notes: all NBG figures refer to domestic Greek business
(1) SME: small & medium enterprises
(2) SBL: small business loans
(1)
(2)
Asset quality
Capital
5
27 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
16.8% 16.9%
16.3%
2Q16 3Q16 CRD 4 fully loaded
Peer Group analysis2: CET1 Capital ratios3
Ordinary equity to CET 1 reconciliation (€ bn)CET 1 ratio
7.1 6.8
2.0
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
2.0
9.1 8.8
Ordinary
equity
GW &
intangibles
Minority
interest
Other CET1
1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and CoCos repayment
2. Peer comparison is based on latest available data
3. Excl. CoCos and State prefs.
CET1 ratio at 16.9%1, or 16.3% on a fully loaded basis
Capital
RWAs
(€ bn)
16.3%
12.8%
16.2%13.8%
16.9%
13.7%
16.6%
14.9%
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
CoCos
Excluding
CoCos
(+500bps)
TBV: €6.9bn
Phased-in
Fully loaded
40.5 40.2
CET1:
€6.8bn
40.2
CET1:
€6.6bn
CET1:
€6.8bn
DTC: €4.9b
Macro
6
29 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
GDP growth (y-o-y and q-o-q)
Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, Bank of Greece
Unemployment rate and employment growth
+0.5% s.a. q-o-q,
.&
+1.5% y-o-y in
Q3:16
Real estate prices (y-o-y)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Q3:2
011
Q1:2
012
Q3:2
012
Q1:2
013
Q3:2
013
Q1:2
014
Q3:2
014
Q1:2
015
Q3:2
015
Q1:2
016
Q3:2
016
GDP (q-o-q, s.a., right axis) GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a., left axis)
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-6
-2
2
6
Aug
-08
Apr-
09
Dec-
09
Aug
-10
Apr-
11
Dec-
11
Aug
-12
Apr-
13
Dec-
13
Aug
-14
Apr-
15
Dec-
15
Aug
-16
Employment growth (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis)
%y-o-y
Greece – Gov. arrears clearance and public investment
-1,5%
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
H2
:200
8
H1
:200
9
H2
:200
9
H1
:201
0
H2
:201
0
H1
:201
1
H2
:201
1
H1
:201
2
H2
:201
2
H1
:201
3
H2
:201
3
H1
:201
4
H2
:201
4
H1
:201
5
H2
:201
5
H1
:201
6
Q3:2
016
Office prices (Athens, y-o-y) Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y)
House prices (total, y-o-y)
y-o-y
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Q1:2
016
Q2:2
016
Q3:2
016
Q4:2
016
Q1:2
017
Q2:2
017
Payments for arrears clearance (incl. tax refunds, % GDP)
Public investment budget expenditure (% GDP)
as % of GDP
forecasts
The Greek economy comes out of recession in Q3:2016, supported by official funding; labor
market conditions improve; and the decline in property prices abates
30 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Current account balance - (% GDP)
Manufacturing production and capacity utilizationGoods and services exports (y-o-y)
Source: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, EU Commission
An increase in exports provides a boost to healthy corporate activity and business sentiment
60
65
70
75
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Oct-
09
Feb
-10
Jun
-10
Oct-
10
Feb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct-
11
Feb
-12
Jun
-12
Oct-
12
Feb
-13
Jun
-13
Oct-
13
Feb
-14
Jun
-14
Oct-
14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct-
15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct-
16
Capacity utilization (right axis)
Manufacturing production (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)
% index
-85
-75
-65
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Dec-
11
Mar-
12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec-
12
Mar-
13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec-
13
Mar-
14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec-
14
Mar-
15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec-
15
Mar-
16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Industrial (left axis) Services (left axis)
Retail (left axis) Construction (right axis)
Greece - Business confidence indicators
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
2014 2015 2016
cumulative
as % GDPsurplus
deficit
-20
-10
0
10
20
-60-45-30-15
015304560
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Aug
-14
Sep
-14
Oct-
14
No
v-14
Dec-14
Jan-1
5Feb
-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct-
15
No
v-15
Dec-15
Jan-1
6Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Apr-
16
May-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Aug
-16
Sep
-16
Transportation (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)
Other services (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)
Tourism receipts (y-o-y, 12m m.a., right axis)
Exports of goods (excl. oil, y-o-y, 3m m.a., right axis)
Capital controls
31 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, IMF, Bloomberg,
Gen. Government: revenue and primary expenditure
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2009 2010 2012 2013
2014 2015 2016
% GDP
surplus
deficit
excluding SMP &
ANFA revenue
GDP growth forecasts (y-o-y change)
State budget primary balance (% GDP)
10-year government bond spreads over bund
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
Aug
-12
No
v-12
Feb
-13
May-13
Aug
-13
No
v-13
Feb
-14
May-14
Aug
-14
No
v-14
Feb
-15
May-15
Aug
-15
No
v-15
Feb
-16
May-16
Aug
-16
mid
No
v-16
Greece Portugal Italy
% 1st Review completion, ECB
waiver reinstatement, Brexit
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Oct
-10
Feb
-11
Jun
-11
Oct
-11
Feb
-12
Jun
-12
Oct
-12
Feb
-13
Jun
-13
Oct
-13
Feb
-14
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct
-16
Gen. Government net revenue Gen. Government primary expenditure
as % of GDP, 12m m.a.
-0,1
2,7 3,1 2,8 2,4
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a.) GDP growth forecasts (IMF & EU Commission average)
%
fore
cast
s
The fiscal adjustment remains credible, and a swift completion of the 2nd review of the program
-- along with the phasing-in of short-term debt relief measures -- will support the recovery
Appendix
7
33 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Balance Sheet | Group
Group Balance Sheet & P&L
P&L | Group
€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15
Cash & Reserves 1 998 1 974 1 873 2 208 1 982
Interbank placements 2 881 2 909 2 753 2 799 2 788
Securities 23 106 24 187 25 337 24 852 22 233
Loans (Gross) 50 430 51 133 51 512 51 969 52 477
Provisions (12 540) (12 712) (12 909) (12 843) (12 357)
Goodwill & intangibles 140 143 142 147 259
Tangible assets 1 306 1 311 1 315 1 325 1 384
DTA 5 081 5 087 5 093 5 096 5 104
Other assets 9 137 9 143 8 686 7 912 8 089
Assets held for sale 203 742 27 941 27 767 28 580
Total assets 81 742 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538
Interbank liabilities 17 799 20 278 25 003 25 166 26 948
Due to customers 42 567 42 184 42 047 42 959 41 890
Debt securities 1 517 1 276 1 279 1 252 1 960
Other liabilities 10 041 10 113 9 621 8 387 8 836
Hybrids - - - - 83
Liabilities held for sale 11 301 23 931 23 643 23 555
Minorities 708 701 735 725 724
Equity 9 099 9 064 9 128 9 100 6 543
Total liabilities and equity 81 742 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538
Appendix
€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15
NII 485 482 479 474 472
Net fees 67 61 43 21 13
Insurance income 12 23 18 29 21
Core Income 563 567 540 524 506
Trading & other income (13) (43) (6) 108 (178)
Income 551 524 534 632 328
Operating Expenses (318) (319) (309) (333) (325)
Core Pre-Provision Income 245 247 231 190 180
Pre-Provision Income 232 205 225 298 3
Provisions (182) (208) (158) (739) (256)
Operating Profit 51 (3) 67 (441) (253)
Other impairments (20) (12) (34) (247) (51)
PBT 31 (15) 33 (688) (304)
Taxes (8) (9) (7) (62) 518
PAT (cont. ops) 23 (23) 26 (750) 214
PAT (discount. ops) - (3 028) 71 (1 160) (595)
Minorities (7) (10) (10) (2) (12)
Other one-offs - - - (138) (9)
Attributable PAT 16 (3 062) 87 (2 050) (401)
Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income in previous periods and relates mainly to foreign currency translation differences from the
translation of Finansbank’s assets and liabilities in Euro, in accordance with IFRS. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1
capital in Q2.16
34 National Bank of Greece Q3.16 results
Greece
Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other
Appendix
SEE & Other
€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15
NII 403 400 396 392 389
Net fees 44 37 20 (3) (10)
Insurance income 10 22 16 26 19
Core Income 457 459 432 415 398
Trading & other income (25) (52) (19) 105 (178)
Income 432 407 413 520 219
Operating Expenses (252) (252) (243) (262) (259)
Core Pre-Provision Income 205 207 189 153 139
Pre-Provision Income 181 155 170 258 (39)
Provisions (162) (188) (134) (671) (232)
Operating Profit 19 (33) 35 (413) (271)
Other impairments (20) (10) (34) (242) (51)
PBT (1) (44) 2 (655) (322)
Taxes (4) (5) (3) (62) 521
PAT (5) (49) (1) (717) 199
€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15
NII 82 83 83 82 83
Net fees 23 24 23 24 23
Insurance income 1 1 2 3 2
Core Income 106 107 108 109 108
Trading & other income 13 10 13 3 1
Income 118 118 121 112 109
Operating Expenses (67) (67) (66) (72) (67)
Core Pre-Provision Income 40 40 42 37 41
Pre-Provision Income 52 50 55 40 42
Provisions (20) (20) (24) (68) (23)
Operating Profit 32 30 31 (28) 18
Other impairments (1) (1) (0) (5) (1)
PBT 31 29 31 (33) 18
Taxes (4) (3) (4) (0) (2)
PAT 28 26 27 (33) 15
Contact details
Paul Mylonas
Deputy CEO
+30210 334 1521
Greg Papagrigoris
Head of IR
+30210 334 2310
Anthony Kouleimanis
Investor Relations
+30210 334 3037
This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of
this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with
respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will
conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as
any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.
Ioannis Kyriakopoulos
Group CFO
+30210 334 3051
Maria Kanellopoulou
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1537
Ilias Katsikalis
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1401
Contact details
Paul Mylonas
Deputy CEO
+30210 334 1521
Greg Papagrigoris
Head of IR
+30210 334 2310
Anthony Kouleimanis
Investor Relations
+30210 334 3037
This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of
this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with
respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will
conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as
any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.
Ioannis Kyriakopoulos
Group CFO
+30210 334 3051
Maria Kanellopoulou
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1537
Ilias Katsikalis
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1401