Upload
brianna-mason
View
214
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Q1 2012 SEMI Americas – Members UpdateA Quarterly Information Webcast to Inform
and Inspire
WHAT WE CAN ACCOMPLISH
TOGETHERRay MorganDirector Outreach and [email protected] / 408.943.7043
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC – Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends – Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS – Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A– Open to All
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC – Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends – Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS – Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A– Open to All
Welcome Remarks
Karen Savala is president of SEMI Americas, responsible for all regional events, products, services, and government relations.
Savala joined SEMI in 1984 and has served in numerous managerial and executive roles, including positions in International Standards, executive programs, publishing, and membership.
SEMI currently serves members in the global LED market through trade events, market data and information programs, public policy advocacy, EHS programs, and manufacturing standards development.
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC – Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends – Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS – Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A– Open to All
About SEMI• Global industry association• Over 1,900 members• Established in 1970 to serve
the semiconductor supply chain• Today serves members interests
in the following industries:– Semiconductor – Flat Panel Displays (FPD)– Photovoltaic (PV) / Solar– Emerging & Adjacent (LED, PE,
MEMS)
Member Services
•Expositions•Executive Conferences•Technical Programs•Industry Standards•Environment, Health &
Safety•Industry Research &
Statistics•Customer / Industry
Network•Advocacy•Special Interest Groups
WWW.SEMI.ORG – Learn More
SEMI – A Few Q4 2011 Highlights
• Trade Agreement with Korea – eliminates about 99% of tariffs
• New Programs & Standards on 450mm Transition• New Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials
Outlook• Launched Americas Oregon, Arizona Chapters• Global Events
– SEMICON Europa, Oct– PV Taiwan 2011 – Oct– SOLARCON India 2011 – Nov– International Trade Partners Conference (ITPC) - Nov– Power Electronics - Nov– SEMICON Japan, Dec– PVJapan 2011 - Dec
SEMI – How to Engage.
Get Involved •Public Policy •Environmental, Health and Safety Efforts •Standards Development •Special Interest Groups Get Connected (Special Interest Groups)•Chemical and Gases Manufacturers Group (CGMG)•Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) •Equipment SuppliersGroup(ESG)•Photovoltaic Manufacturing Group (PV Group)•North America SEMI Sales and Marketing Council (SSMC)•EHS / Global Care
• Statistics– Over 250 Attendees, 31 speakers, 3 industry panels, extensive networking
opportunities
• Major Topics– Geo-Economic Trends– Semiconductor Markets– Hot Topics: 450 mm, EUV, 3DIC– Strategic Materials– Strategic Technology Challenges & Collaboration– Expanding Market Opportunities
• Event/Industry Sponsors
• 450mm Wafer Transition
• EUV Lithography
• 3D Device Structures
Markets Industry Challenges
William M. Holt, SVP & GM, Technology and Manufacturing Group, Intel Corporation
Day 1 - Keynote
William M. HoltSVP & GM, Technology & Manufacturing Group, Intel Corporation
Day 1 - Keynote
William M. HoltSVP & GM, Technology & Manufacturing Group, Intel Corporation
Day 1 - Session II Semiconductor Markets
Bernard S. MeyersonIBM Fellow and VP
Day 1 - Session II Semiconductor Markets
Bernard S. MeyersonIBM Fellow and VP
Day 1 - Session II Semiconductor Markets
Bernard S. MeyersonIBM Fellow and VP
Day 2- Keynote
Mike SplinterChairman of the Board of DirectorsPresident and Chief Executive OfficerApplied Materials, Inc.
Day 2 - Session III Strategic Materials
Tim HendryIntel VP and Director of Fab Material Operations
Day 2 - Session III Strategic Materials
David Lazokvsky President and CEO of Intermolecular
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC – Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends – Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS – Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A– Open to All
SEMI Market Update
SEMI North America Members Dan Tracy
SEMIFebruary 2, 2012
Outline
• Brief Market Observations
• Semiconductor Fab Trends
• Semiconductor Equipment Outlook
• Semiconductor Materials Outlook
• Summary
Semiconductor Industry Outlook:2011 To Exceed $300 billion
150
204
139 141166
213228
248 256 249226
300 310298
328
$0$25$50$75
$100$125$150$175$200$225$250$275$300$325$350$375$400
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
F
2012
F
2013
F
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Semiconductor Revenue Annual Growth
Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports, WSTS November 2011 Forecast
Glo
bal
Sem
ico
nd
uc
tor
Rev
enu
e U
S $
B
(bar
gra
ph
)
An
nu
al G
row
th %
(li
ne
gra
ph
)
2012 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts
3.3%
4.0%
4.5%
4.6%
7.0%
8.0%
10.1%
2.6%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
WSTS (Nov 11)
IHS iSuppli (Jan 12)
Henderson Ventures (Dec 11)
VLSI Research (Nov 11)
Gartner (Sept 11)
IC Insights (Jan 12)
Future Horizons (Oct 11)
Semico Research (Jan 12)
Source: SEMI
27
Installed Capacity by Region
28
Installed Capacity by Product Type
LED Fab Capacity by Region, 2011
Worldwide LED capacity to reach 1.57M in 2011 (4” equivalent per month)
Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Watch Nov. 2011
LED Market Outlook
• LED market is driven by LCD-backlit in the near term and general lighting in the longer term.
• Recent market slowdown is caused by LCD panel weakness, especially from TV. Demand is expected to pick up slowly from 1Q12 onwards because of new TV models.
• Rapid capacity build-up in China has raised concerns about oversupply and that may accelerate (China) industry consolidation in coming years.
• MOCVD shipment is expected to slow down significantly this year after two years of aggressive investment.
• 2” sapphire price has come to new low in 4Q11 which may delay the migration to larger substrate size.
SEMI North America Book-to-Bill Ratio
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 (f) Dec-11(p)
Bo
ok-
to-B
ill R
atio
Source: SEMI January 2012
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 (f) Dec-11 (p)
US
$ M
illio
ns
Bookings Billings
North American Headquartered Manufacturers Global Capital Equipment Book-to-Bill(based on three month averages)
SEMI® 2011 Year-End Equipment Forecast by Market Region
Source: SEMI, November 2011
Totals may not add due to rounding
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
N. America Japan Taiwan Europe S.Korea China ROW
ROW 2.61 1.44 3.84 3.47 2.9 3.15
China 1.89 0.94 3.68 3.77 3.53 3.80
S.Korea 4.89 2.60 8.63 7.99 8.59 8.36
Europe 2.45 0.97 2.34 3.90 3.35 3.52
Taiwan 5.01 4.35 11.25 8.05 6.88 8.33
Japan 7.04 2.23 4.44 5.82 5.23 5.69
N. America 5.63 3.39 5.75 8.80 6.77 7.20
2008 2009 2010 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F)
US
$ B
illi
on
s
$15.92
$39.93
$29.52
$41.80 $40.05$37.28
SEMI® 2011 Materials Forecast By Market Region
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50$55
Taiwan Japan ROW South Korea China North America Europe
Europe 3.32 2.54 3.21 3.43 3.54 3.66
North America 4.99 3.76 4.57 4.92 5.10 5.25
China 3.57 3.28 4.28 4.80 5.09 5.57
South Korea 5.90 4.78 6.31 6.98 7.23 7.56
ROW 6.90 6.08 7.51 8.13 8.31 8.65
Japan 9.96 7.72 9.30 9.33 9.58 9.78
Taiwan 7.87 6.91 9.32 10.06 10.47 10.83
2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
US
$ B
illi
on
s
$42.52
$35.06
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription November 2011
$47.64$44.50
$49.32 $51.31
Summary• Industry Outlook
– Economic challenges and risks remain in 2012– Low- to mid- single-digit growth forecasted for
semiconductor revenues
• Fab Investments– Forecasting 6% growth in fab capacity for 2012 – NAND capacity growth could surpass DRAM capacity
• Semiconductor Equipment Market– Originally forecasting a -11% decline in 2012. Spending
decline could be in the single-digits.
• Semiconductor Materials Market– 2012 outlook currently shows ~4% growth
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC – Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends – Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS – Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A– Open to All
Maximizing Investments in Products & Technology
Business: Technology Solutions Company
Markets: Semiconductor, Electronics and Aerospace
Ownership: Privately-held Company
Revenue Profile:
20% growth, YOY, last 3 years
Founded: 1994
Headquarters: Carlsbad, California
Global Presence:
7 facilities worldwide Local presence in 14 countries
Solutions:
Product Manufacturing Engineering Supply Chain
Employees: 150
Ross MartindaleVP of [email protected]
MVTS Technologies
• Sample Challenge/Issue– Increase awareness for third-party value-add in semiconductor
secondary equipment market– Not many standards / expectations for customers engaging
with third-party suppliers
• SEMI’s Role & Service– SEMI SEA group formed in 2009 after SEC/N integration– Broader forum of peers with common goals and business
models– Increasing visibility by defining and communicating standards
• Result– Standards and definition for the various business models– Clearer expectations on equipment quality, service levels and
post sale support
Agenda
• Welcome Remarks– Karen Savala, President, SEMI Americas
• SEMI Update & Highlights from ISS and SMC – Ray Morgan, Director, SEMI Americas
• 2012 Market Outlook & Trends – Dan Tracy, Senior Director, Industry Research &
Statistics
• Member Spotlight: MVTS – Ross Martindale, Vice President Marketing, MVTS
• Q&A– Open to All
WHAT WE CAN ACCOMPLISH
TOGETHERRay MorganDirector Outreach and [email protected] / 408.943.7043