PV Battery Learning Curve and Future Market Penetrationbauf/pv/talks/160622_PV... · F. Baumgartner, June 2016 in Germany Typ. 850€/kWh Li-Battery 6kWh+ In verter (price hardware

Franz Baumgartner, 22.06.2016; EUPVSEC Munich; www.zhaw.ch/~bauf/

PV Battery Learning Curve and

Future Market Penetration

Content1. Learning rates LR

2. LR PV versus Li-Battery

3. Target Marktes «autark houses»

4. Trends and grid costs

Franz Baumgartner

ZHAW, IEFE, Winterthur, Switzerland

www.zhaw.ch/~bauf see also www.researchgate.net

invited talk, EUPVSEC Munich, 23.6.2016, No 6CO.12.3

Ref. L. Kazmerski, WCPSEC Kyoto, Japan 2014

US 1956


Start of the Industrialisation 100 years ago

Henry Ford: Production & Labor Innovations

Ford was dedicated to the production of an efficient and reliable automobile that would be affordable for everyone; the result was the Model T, starting in October 1908.

Practice techniques of mass production revolutionize industry

• use of large production plants

• standardized

• interchangeable parts

• and the moving assembly line

Mass production cut down on the time required to produce an automobile, which allowed costs to stay low. (in 1918 US market share about 50%).

Slide 2.

y = 26439 x -0.207

Learning Rate

LR=1-2-0.207 = 0.13900

3600

10 100 1000 10000$

(in 1

958$

)

thousand units cumulative shipments

Fords T-Model cost reduction1909

1923

1918


Definition Learning Rate LR

Slide 3.

S. Nowak et al; IEA, PVPS, Technology Roadmap, Edition 2014G.C. Nemeth, 2006, Energy Policy (34), p3218; discusse LR 0.17 and 0.26 C. Harmon, 2010, IASA Laxenburg Austria, Interim Report IR-00-014, Experience Curves of Photovoltaic TechnologyP. Verlinden, CTO Trina, EUPVSEC 2016, parallel session IEA PVPS (CdTe data)

ITRPV 2015

y = 5.4822x-0.32

LR=1-2-0.32 = 0.20 cr. Si

cr-Si TechnologyIAEA, PV PS Technology Roadmap 2014

1976

2016

20240.33$/W

CdTe LR=0.16


Markes are more divers PV module as component of the PV System

Slide 4.


Cost breakdown of components PV module versus Li-battery

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

PV Module Li Battery

Shar

e of

cos

ts

Electronics/DivMech PackagingCell processingCell material

Slide 5.

Lithium-ion Batteries for Hybrid and All-Electric Vehicles: the U.S. Value ChainMarcy Lowe, Saori Tokuoka, Tali Trigg and Gary Gereffi, October 5, 2010,Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness, Duke University

see also Althaus, IWS, 2014-03 for LiNiMnCoO Batteries

cathodeanode

electrolyteseperatorhousing

poly Si

wafering

6 inch poly cr. Si Module, 0.51$/Wp prize (20% margin?)2016 june, http://pvinsights.com/

glassAl frame

lamination

battery mgt.

batterypackagemounting

junction box


Elements of the BATTERY learning curve

Slide 6.

ProductionTechnology

Li-Ion

MarktesGrowth 50%?

20 GWh/a

Costs270$/kWh

Investment Decision

in new GWh Fabs

Cheaper EV’snew productsPV home batt.

Material, labor costs

Prod. Yield

Quality

CO2

Oil, Gas

Autarky


2020 TESALs full capacity to be reached

Slide 7.

Web visited Juni 2016 - https://www.teslamotors.com/gigafactory

Tesla broke ground on the Gigafactory in June 2014 outside Sparks, Nevada, and we expect to begin cell production in 2017. By 2020, the Gigafactory will reach full capacityand produce more lithium ion batteries annually than were produced worldwide in 2013. 35 more than 35 GWh of battery cells and 50 GWh of battery packs, but CTO JB Straubel, 2015

PAN

ASO

NIC

Feb 2016http://electrek.co/2016/02/24/


Investments in battery fabs

Investment cumulated till 2015, Ref. Roland Berger, 2016 and others

• $ 1.60 bn / 500 000? EVs (35GWh/a)/ Panasonic Tesla(Ref: Feb. 9, 2016, www.businessinsider.com; Model S @ 90kWh, Model 3 @ 60kWh); ? 5$/kWh invest cells over 10 years depr.

• $ 1.50 bn / 420 000 Evs (?10GWh) / ASEC Nissan/Renault

• $ 0.85 bn / 400 000 EVs / LG Chem GM, Daimler

• $ 0.50 bn / (25GWh/a) /Daimler Kamiz /(LG Chem) Mercedes(Ref: Mar. 3, 2016, A. Rueckemann, Daimler, Bad Stafelstein, OTTI

Slide 8.

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/10/08/gm-li-ion-battery-cost-per-kwh-already-down-to-145/

Tesla Li-Giga FabUS Nevada, Feb 2016

Li Battery LeasingGermany 20167.6€cent/km or 0.43€/kWh

OK for battery cellsnot for battery pack


Learning Curve Li-Ion Battery Packs

Slide 9.

100

200

400

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000

$/kW

h

GWh cum.

2007

2017

2015300$/kWh1.2Mio EV

[1] B. Nykvist, M. Nilsson; «Rapidly Falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles»,Stockholm Environment Institute & KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm; Nature Climate Change; 9th Feb 2015

EVs batterymarket leadersLR=0.06 [1]y = 357.31x-0.087

LR=1-2-0.087 = 0.06

LR = 0.10LR = 0.15EPRI US, 2015W. Hofmann, 2015

2025; 1/4 cars EVeach 40kWh

30 Mio x 40kWh=1200GWh/a

20205Mio EV

2025

50 000 German PV home batteries 5kWh

0.25GWh


Intersolar 2016, Munich, A3, Bayern-Innovativ

• 400€/kWhincl. BMS

• Cycles2500 =10a*250

• Estimate:400/2500=0.16€/kWh+inverter0.06=0.22€/kWh

• +installation?Slide 10

.

PAN

ASO

NIC


Markets ”Maximise PV Self Consumption”Autarky from April to October?!

7 MWh /a

electricity consumption

heat pump, hot water, EV since 2015

16.4 kWp Since 2014 PV

17 MWh/a Production

1985 the house was builtHeating monovalent heat pump eart. 2008 heat pump Scroll-Comp.2012 hot water and earth grounded heat transfer= 243%-PEB-EFH

Untersiggenthal/AGwww.staerk-erdwaerme.ch

Heat PumpMuKEn 150m2


Measurements in Aug 2015 – sunny day 4.6kWh Li-Speicher, 8kWp PV, lake of Constance, D

12 F. Baumgartner, 2015 Nov, electrosuisse, 151105 Energien der Zukunft: erneuerbare Energien - Electrosuisse

Cafe

Self cons.cons./PV

Standard5 5000kWh

20% to 35%1.1 - 1900kWh

Heat pumphot water

+16%+900kWhel

Heat pumproom heat.

-

BatterykWh/kWp

+22%1200kWh

E-vehicle2000kWh10 000km/a

+9% to +25%500-2000kWh


PV Battery Systems - Germany

Slide 13.

EUPVSEC Sept 2015, Plenary

PROFITABILITY AND LCOE OF SMALLSOLAR BATTERY SYSTEMS—THE GERMAN CASE

C. Stegnera*, P. Luchscheidera, J. Bogenriedera, Reinhard Germanb, Christoph Brabeca, Camus,

ZAE Bayern e. V., Renewable Energies, Haberstrasse 2a, 91058 Erlangen, Germany

bFAU Erlangen-Nürnberg, CS 7, Martensstrasse 3, 91058 Erlangen, Germany


PV home battery – cost estimation per kWh

Slide 14.

per kWh , per kW costs2016

costs2020

costs2025

Li-battery + BMS @ 6kWh 300 € 197 € 122 € housing 100 € 66 € 41 € power electronics 100 € 66 € 41 € Total hardware 500 € 328 € 204 €Overhead, software, sales (20%) 200 € 66 € 41 €components price at factory gate 700 € 394 € 244 €site installation 200 € 163 € 133 € total costs incl. Installation (-5%/a) 900 € 557 € 377 €economic rating cap. v. PVn / per kWh 0.36 € 0.22 € 0.15 €

Single Family house solution: PV Li-battery + Power Electronics – inverter + installationF. Baumgartner, June 2016 in Germany

Typ. 850€/kWh Li-Battery 6kWh+ Inverter (price hardware for installer)remaining Battery price about 700€/kWh (about twice of Tesla Powerwall 350$/kWh pricing)

annual full cycles 250, 10 years of operation; component -10%/a

PV Inverter 150€/kW <20kW, LR 0.19% from 1990 to 2013; www.agora-energiewende.de , FhG ISE, 059/01-S-2015/EN; Publication: February 2015Li-Battery, cost reduction 8%/a, P. Nyquist, Nature, Feb 2016

0.08€/kWhPlug inAC batterysupermarket,internet


Could we reach these promises?

• German Subsidy1500€ für eco22.5kWp PV, 2kWh

• 10 000 cyclesin 10 year warranty1 000 cycles/a ???

• > 17 Cent/kWhab 5475€

Slide 15.


Low Carbon Market $600 bn in 2014

Slide 16.

$140 bn

$80 bn

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Nov 2015

$250 bnin 2025


PV Battery and Cost Outlook - Switzerland

8.8 8.2

36

157

3.20.8

0

5

10

98

18

12

7.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 CH H4household

2014 CH ZH H4household

2016 PV + Batt 2025 PV + Batt 2035 PV + Batt off-grid?

Rp/

kWh

H4

Hau

shal

tsku

nd

EnergieAbgabenNetz

PV Production-5%/a CAGR

Grid& winter

Battery kWh-10%/a CAGR

BRD 2016

see F. Baumgartner, 2015 Nov, ETG EE Jahrestagung, Electrosuisse151105 Energien der Zukunft: erneuerbare Energien - Electrosuisse


Outlook - Management on LR could fail!!Global Management typical think BIG – What is to BIG?

• A Decade ago: AMAT PV thin film silicon – larger jumbo sizes ??

• Technology should count not only financial issues

What we learnt!

• Management never fail, but technology might

• Management of to take the RISCS and responsibility!

What I hope for a fast global CO2 reduction – PV powered EVs!

• TESLAS Giga Fabs Batteries will not fail (ramp up, quality…A123!)

• EV Model S, X and 3 will have the success of Fords model T

• Than others must follow! – PV batteries not the main driver but helpSlide 18

.


Thank you for your attention

find more www.zhaw.ch/~bauf and reasearchgate.net PV plants built in collaboration with ZHAW IEFE Winterthur

19

60kWp, AXA Winterthur 650kW, Lonza AG, Waldshut 50kW – LE / dhp

90kW, Solar Wings60kW, Solar Wings, Tenna10kW, EKZ60kW, Werkhof, WintiSolarspar, Klimafond

Documents

PV Battery Learning Curve and Future Market Penetrationbauf/pv/talks/160622_PV... · F. Baumgartner, June 2016 in Germany Typ. 850€/kWh Li-Battery 6kWh+ In verter (price hardware