Putting Community Colleges First:The Potential Power of the American Graduation Initiative

Sara Goldrick-RabCUNY Office of Policy Research's Higher Education Policy Seminar SeriesOctober 8, 2009

Higher education contributes to social and economic well-being

Individual “economic return” to educationIndividual return to health and other areasExternalities General agreement that these are causal effects

Same appears true of community colleges

Less attention paid to CCs in the research as well as in policy (more on that below), but . . .Most of the economic return to education literature based on “years of education” and includes both 2- vs. 4-year college educationMost direct evidence and support from Kane and Rouse (1995), Grubb (1999), and othersThere is also an equity side of this . . .

Community colleges serve higher shares of minority and lower-income college-going youth

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Community Colleges: Special Supplement to the Condition of Education 2008

2830

46

25

37

44

35

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

White Black Hispanic Asian AmericanIndian

Lowest 25% Middle 50% Highest 25%

Race/Ethnicity Socio‐economic status

Share of high school graduates enrolling in a community college by race/ethnicity and family economic status, 2004

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Projections

Occupational projections suggest continued growth in jobs requiring sub-baccalaureate education

41.0

32.430.1

28.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Veterinarytechnologists

andtechnicians

Physicaltherapistassistants

Dentalhygienists

Environmentalscience andprotectiontechnicians

Projected job grow

th, 2006‐16

Other sub‐baccalaureate education/training

Associate degree

Bachelor’s degree and above

Occupational growth projections, 2006-16

Enrollment growth in the two-year sector is outpacing that in the four-year sector

Source: U.S. Department of Education, Digest of Education Statistics (NCES 2008-022)

5,093,778

6,295,978

3,613,167

5,175,799

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Public 4‐year students

Public 2‐year students

24% growth

43% growth

But community colleges face serious challenges…

Balancing multiple missions (e.g., degree, certificate, transfer, development ed, continuing ed, etc.)Dropout rates approach 50%

Only one-third of students complete a degree or certificate within six years of entering

College access is going up faster than completion

Source: 1976 to 2002 March Current Population Survey, 2003 to 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey

28.4

23.7 23.3

45.0

33.1

42.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Completed 4 years of college or more[ages 25 to 29]

College enrollment as a share of high school completers[ages 18 to 24]

Another problem: the “snob” factor

Two-year colleges are places of “continued dependency, unrealistic aspirations, and wasted ‘general education.’”

W.B. Devall, 1968

Why I Ignore Community CollegesJay Matthews, Washington Post, 2005

“Community” starring Chevy Chase (NBC)

Limitations of Existing Policy

Community colleges have few resources and depend mostly on state/local sources, being squeezed by recession

We spend less on CCs than high schools (per FTE basis)State and local revenues account for nearly 60% of community college budgetsFederal spending (including financial aid) supplies 15% of community college revenueThis makes community colleges especially susceptible in periods of economic downturn

Expenditures at community colleges have declined as enrollments have skyrocketed

Source: Green, K.C. (2009). Community Colleges and the Economic Downturn, The Campus Computing Project

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Declined > 10 pct Declined 5‐10 pct Declined 1‐4 pct No change Gain 1‐4 pct Gain 5‐10 pct Gain >10 pct

Total headcount

Total institutional budget

% Community Colleges reporting various declines and gains in headcount and budget, Winter 2008 to Winter 2009

Federal funding per FTE student at public 4-year colleges outstrips that at community colleges by 3:1

Source: Delta Cost Project, Trends in College Spending

$2,594

$1,445

$791$503

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fede

ral fun

ding

 per FTE stude

nt ($

2006

)

Public 4‐year

Public 2‐year

Not just the level of funding, but the way it is distributed that is problematic

Based on enrollment, not outcomes

Student-focused approaches alone (e.g., subsidies and fin. aid) are insufficient

Funding levels also important to ensure that colleges have the capacity to respond and improve outcomes

New Investments in Community Colleges: Coming Soon

Recognizing the importance of postsecondary education, the new administration announced an

ambitious national goal

“…we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and

meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college

graduates in the world.”

--Pres. Obama, Address to Joint Session of Congress,

February 24, 2009Photograph: Pablo Martinez Monsivais / Pool/EPA 

And followed up by creating a significant new program:

The American Graduation Initiative

“…we seek to help an additional 5 million

Americans earn degrees and certificates in the next

decade.”

--Pres. Obama, Address to Macomb Community College

July 14, 2009

Photograph: Pablo Martinez Monsivais / Pool/EPA 

What’s the plan?

A Blueprint for National Prosperity

In May 2009 the Brookings Institution issued a proposal:

Transforming America’s Community Colleges: A Federal Policy Proposal to Expand Opportunity and Promote Economic Prosperity

Authors:Sara Goldrick-Rab, Douglas N. Harris, Christopher Mazzeo, and Gregory Kienzl

We called for a 4-pronged approach:

Dramatically increase federal resourcesWe initially asked for a doubling of the direct fed investment (from $2-4 billion/year)

Tie resources to national goalsEstablish some effective practices that really help students finish degreesAssess and evaluate

Colleges could use money as they see fit, but there are some likely strategies

Improve facilitiesSmart classroomsEnough space for all studentsWelcoming environments

Enhance remedial educationImprove retention rates

Grow a well-supported workforce of educatorsStem the tide of reliance on adjuncts

Measure success in meaningful ways—moving beyond simple enrollment and graduation rates.

Degree and credential completion (including transfer)Transitions from remedial to credit-bearing courseworkGED attainmentKey credit-hour mileposts toward credentialsEarnings and employment outcomes

Innovate, assess, and scale-up

Identify what’s working elsewhereAsk critical questions during this process– how do you know something is working?What does it cost?

Try it out and collect dataCompare costs with impactsDecide whether to continue, and go to scale

The federal government should continue to support the creation of data systems that can be used to track community college performance

Source: Data Quality Campaign

22 states still lack data systems that connect student-level P12 to post-secondary data; only a few link to labor market data

States that match student‐level P12 to higher education data

In short, make community colleges central to the President’s higher education agenda

Focus on degree completionThe goal should be to produce more graduates holding degrees of valueEncourage a “culture of evidence”Elevate the status of two-year colleges with both rhetoric and resources

Sending a clear message about the value of the 2-year sectorReducing resource disparities that have widened over time

Washington has responded…

Cecilia Rouse, Council for Economic Advisers, served on the panel at the paper’s release (5/7)Rahm Emanuel, Chief of Staff, hinted at the program in a speech to the DLC (6/17)President Obama spoke at Macomb (7/14)Representative Miller unveiled HR 3221 (7/15)The House began debate yesterday, and is continuing debate todaySenator Harkin’s HELP Committee is hard at work (aiming for a 10/15 deadline)

Obama’s Community College Plan

Embodied in HR 3221: The Student Aid and Fiscal Responsibility ActInvestment: $10 billion over 10 years

$9 billion in grants to stimulate and support promising practices and collect data on outcomes$3 billion in support for infrastructure

Expected to generate additional support

Accountability: Requires performance after year 3, establishment of goalsData and evaluation required

Important Caveats

Where does the money come from?Estimated savings from a switch to direct lending of student financial aidFunding therefore requires an end to the bank-based guaranteed loan program

Do states and colleges have to pony up?Yes. In some case a 33-50% match is required.

Other unresolved issues…

Ensure states focus on increasing the completion rates of low-skill, low-income adultsDevise ways for a competitive grant process to not leave out the states and colleges currently farthest behind. Integrate longer-term labor market outcomes into the measures of success.Better define “evaluation” and “data” to ensure that lessons about what works and what does not can be drawn from the innovations.Promote a greater emphasis on scalability of innovative policies and practices, and correspondingly point toward the need to require sustainable partnerships