Public OpinionPublic OpinionPOLS 21: The American Political POLS 21: The American Political

SystemSystem“One should respect public opinion insofar as is necessary to avoid starvation and keep out of prison, but anything that goes beyond this is voluntary submission to an unnecessary tyranny.”

— Bertrand Russell

Linkage InstitutionsLinkage Institutions

People Government

Public Opinion

Elections

Political Parties

Interest Groups

News Media

Judging the Quality of a Public Judging the Quality of a Public Opinion PollOpinion Poll

Who was polled?Who was polled? When were they polled?When were they polled? How many people were interviewed for the How many people were interviewed for the

survey?survey? How were those respondents chosen? How were those respondents chosen? What was the response rate?What was the response rate? What is the margin of error?What is the margin of error? What questions were asked?What questions were asked? Who sponsored the poll, and for what Who sponsored the poll, and for what

purpose?purpose?

1. Who was polled?1. Who was polled?

ObamaObama RomneyRomney

Registered votersRegistered voters 50 44

Likely votersLikely voters 49 48

Source: The Gallup Organization, September 7-9, 2012.

Judging the Quality of a Public Judging the Quality of a Public Opinion PollOpinion Poll

Who was polled?Who was polled? When were they polled?When were they polled? How many people were interviewed for the How many people were interviewed for the

survey?survey? How were those respondents chosen? How were those respondents chosen? What was the response rate?What was the response rate? What is the margin of error?What is the margin of error? What questions were asked?What questions were asked? Who sponsored the poll, and for what Who sponsored the poll, and for what

purpose?purpose?

Judging the Quality of a Public Judging the Quality of a Public Opinion PollOpinion Poll

Who was polled?Who was polled? When were they polled?When were they polled? How many people were interviewed for the How many people were interviewed for the

survey?survey? How were those respondents chosen? How were those respondents chosen? What was the response rate?What was the response rate? What is the margin of error?What is the margin of error? What questions were asked?What questions were asked? Who sponsored the poll, and for what Who sponsored the poll, and for what

purpose?purpose?

If we draw RANDOM, repeated samples out of the same population, those samples will distribute themselves in a normal (bell-shaped) curve around the average of all possible samples.

Top 25 Most Evil People of the Top 25 Most Evil People of the MillenniumMillennium

1.1. Adolf HitlerAdolf Hitler

2.2. Bill Clinton (write in)Bill Clinton (write in)

3.3. Josef StalinJosef Stalin

4.4. Pol PotPol Pot

5.5. Dr. Josef MengeleDr. Josef Mengele

6.6. Hillary Clinton (write Hillary Clinton (write in)in)

7.7. Saddam HusseinSaddam Hussein

8.8. Adolf EichmannAdolf Eichmann

9.9. Charles MansonCharles Manson

10.10. Idi AminIdi Amin

11.11. Genghis KhanGenghis Khan

12.12. Jeffrey DahmerJeffrey Dahmer

13.13. Benito MussoliniBenito Mussolini

14.14. Ayatollah KhomeiniAyatollah Khomeini

15.15. Ted BundyTed Bundy

16.16. John Wayne GacyJohn Wayne Gacy

17.17. Ivan the TerribleIvan the Terrible

18.18. Fidel CastroFidel Castro

19.19. Jim JonesJim Jones

20.20. Vlad the ImpalerVlad the Impaler

Judging the Quality of a Public Judging the Quality of a Public Opinion PollOpinion Poll

Who was polled?Who was polled? When were they polled?When were they polled? How many people were interviewed for the How many people were interviewed for the

survey?survey? How were those respondents chosen? How were those respondents chosen? What was the response rate?What was the response rate? What is the margin of error?What is the margin of error? What questions were asked?What questions were asked? Who sponsored the poll, and for what Who sponsored the poll, and for what

purpose?purpose?

Judging the Quality of a Public Judging the Quality of a Public Opinion PollOpinion Poll

Who was polled?Who was polled? When were they polled?When were they polled? How many people were interviewed for the How many people were interviewed for the

survey?survey? How were those respondents chosen? How were those respondents chosen? What was the response rate?What was the response rate? What is the margin of error?What is the margin of error? What questions were asked?What questions were asked? Who sponsored the poll, and for what Who sponsored the poll, and for what

purpose?purpose?

42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

Source: CNN/ USA Today/ Gallup tracking poll. Results are based on telephone interviews with 3,571 national adults, aged 18+, conducted November 5-6, 2000. One can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is +/ - 2 percentage points.

GORE 46%

BUSH 48%

Percent of vote

Actual vote48.4%

And the Survey Says...

Actual vote47.9%

Judging the Quality of a Public Judging the Quality of a Public Opinion PollOpinion Poll

Who was polled?Who was polled? When were they polled?When were they polled? How many people were interviewed for the How many people were interviewed for the

survey?survey? How were those respondents chosen? How were those respondents chosen? What was the response rate?What was the response rate? What is the margin of error?What is the margin of error? What questions were asked?What questions were asked? Who sponsored the poll, and for what Who sponsored the poll, and for what

purpose?purpose?

7. What questions were asked?7. What questions were asked?

Sometimes pollsters ask questions Sometimes pollsters ask questions on topics about which people have on topics about which people have no reasonable basis for judgment.no reasonable basis for judgment.

Questions can be imprecise.Questions can be imprecise. Questions can be biased in many, Questions can be biased in many,

many ways.many ways.

Judging the Quality of a Public Judging the Quality of a Public Opinion PollOpinion Poll

Who was polled?Who was polled? When were they polled?When were they polled? How many people were interviewed for the How many people were interviewed for the

survey?survey? How were those respondents chosen? How were those respondents chosen? What was the response rate?What was the response rate? What is the margin of error?What is the margin of error? What questions were asked?What questions were asked? Who sponsored the poll, and for what Who sponsored the poll, and for what

purpose?purpose?

“Would you be more or less likely to vote for John McCain for president if you knew he had fathered an illegitimate black child?”

An Infamous Push PollAn Infamous Push Poll

The McCain family in 1999

Push PollsPush Polls

Morales supports affirmative action.Morales supports affirmative action. Morales supports gun control.Morales supports gun control. Conservative political groups rate Morales as a Conservative political groups rate Morales as a

liberal Democratliberal Democrat Morales has said that young gang members Morales has said that young gang members

don’t need harsh treatment and prison, but that don’t need harsh treatment and prison, but that they need hire recreational facilities, drug they need hire recreational facilities, drug counseling and summer jobs.counseling and summer jobs.

Victims Rights activists say Morales sold out Victims Rights activists say Morales sold out crime victims when he settled a prisoner’s crime victims when he settled a prisoner’s lawsuit without even taking the case to court.lawsuit without even taking the case to court.

As you know, elected officials are held to high standards in public life. As you know, elected officials are held to high standards in public life. Here are some reasons people are giving to vote Here are some reasons people are giving to vote againstagainst Dan Morales for Dan Morales for Attorney General. Please tell me if each statement makes you much Attorney General. Please tell me if each statement makes you much more likely to vote against Dan Morales, somewhat more likely to vote more likely to vote against Dan Morales, somewhat more likely to vote against Dan Morales or if it make no difference at all? Here’s the first… against Dan Morales or if it make no difference at all? Here’s the first… (RANDOMIZE) (RANDOMIZE)

Now that you’ve had a chance learn more about Dan Morales’ record, Now that you’ve had a chance learn more about Dan Morales’ record, do you think Dan Morales has performed his job as Attorney General do you think Dan Morales has performed his job as Attorney General well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it’s time to give a well enough to deserve reelection, or do you think it’s time to give a new person a chance to do a better job?new person a chance to do a better job?

Changing the subject to something else all together, I’d like to ask you some questions about lawsuits in Texas.

39. There has been some public debate about lawsuits lately. First, do you think there

are too many frivolous lawsuits being filed today, or not?

Next I’d like to ask you about some specific situations where people engage in risky activities but still consider suing if they get hurt. Here’s the first . . .

40. Do you think people who drink alcohol and get drunk and injure themselves or others should be allowed to sue the alcohol industry and claim money damages for medical costs they say were caused by their drinking?

41. Do you think people who eat meat or dairy products like cheese and butter and later develop heart disease should be allowed to sue meat companies or dairy farmers to claim money damages for their medical costs?

42. Do you think people who smoke cigarettes should be allowed to sue tobacco companies and claim money damages for medical costs they say were caused by their smoking?

43. Do you think people who use a gun or a knife and injure themselves should be allowed to sue the gun or knife manufacturer and claim money damages for medical costs, even if the product was not faulty?

I’d like to read you two different opinions on the cigarette lawsuit, and please tell me which comes closest to your own. . . (ROTATE)

Push PollsPush Polls

I believe that people should be able to choose what’s the best for them. While I might not smoke, if they choose to, that’s their decision.

I believe that if something is not good for people, they should not do it. I think the government should act to stop people from smoking.

AAPOR Standards for AAPOR Standards for Minimal DisclosureMinimal Disclosure

Who sponsored the survey and who Who sponsored the survey and who conducted itconducted it

The exact wording of the questions askedThe exact wording of the questions asked A definition of the population under studyA definition of the population under study A description of the sample designA description of the sample design Sample sizes and response ratesSample sizes and response rates A discussion of the precision of the findings, A discussion of the precision of the findings,

including estimates of sampling errorincluding estimates of sampling error Method, location, and dates of data collectionMethod, location, and dates of data collection