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FILE COPYReport No. 1478-WA
Ivory Coast/Upper VoltaAppraisal of a Regional Railway ProjectOctober 11, 1977
Western Africa Projects DepartmentPorts, Railways, and Aviation Division
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Document of the World Bank
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may nototherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Currency Unit - CFA Franc (CFAF)US$1.00 - CFAF 245CFAF 1 million - US$4,081.63
FISCAL YEAR
January 1 - December 31
SYSTEM OF WEIGHTS AND IIEASURES: Metric
Metric US Equivalents
1 meter (m) 3 - 3.28 feet (ft)1 cubic meter (mJ) - 35.29 cubic feet (cu ft)
t kilometer (km) 2 - 0.62 mile (mi)1 square kilometer (km > - 0.386 square mile (sq mi)I hectare (ha) - 2.47 acres (ac)I metric ton (m ton) - 2,204 pounds (lb)
ABBREVIATIONS AliD ACRONYMfS
CIDA - Canadian International Development AgencyEIB - European Investment BankFED - Fonds Europeen de DeveloppementGDP - Gross Domestic Product
GNP - Gross National Product
IDA - International Development AssociationMP&RS - Motive Power and Rolling Stock DepartmentOP - Operations DepartmentOCAM - Organisation Commune des Etats Africains et Malgachepass-km - Passenger-kilometersPK - Point Kilometrique (distance from Abidjan)RAN - Regie des Chemins de Fer Abidjan-NigerSCA - Societe des Ciments d'AbidjanSWLHT - Sleeping-Cars and Hotels DepartmentS&T - Signalling & Telecommunications Servicet-km - Ton-kilometersT&W - Track & Work Department
TD - Training Division
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
APPRAISAL OF A REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Table of Contents
Page No.
SUMM4ARY ............................................. i-iv
1. INTRODUCTION . ................... ........................ 1
2. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR .................................... 1A. Thé Regional Setting .............................. 1B. The Regional Transport System ....................... 2C. Regional Transport Issues ............. ............. 3
3. THE RAN RAILWAY ......................................... 4A. Organization and Management .... 4 .................. 4B. Staff and Training ................ » ............. . 5C. Accounts, Budgets, Planning and Audit .............. 7D. Property ..................................................... O.. 8E. Operations ..................................................... 0. 8F. Traffic ........et.................... .0.......................... 9
4. THE PLAN AND THE PROJECT ................................ 10A. RAN's Investment Plan . ............ ..... . .......... . 10B. The Project ....... ........................... . ilC. Financing Plan ........... .......................... 16D. Project Execution, Procurement, and Disbursement ... 17
5. ECONOMIC EVALUATION ...... ............................... 18A. General ................. ........................... 18B. Realignment Bouake-Petionara ..... .................. 19C. Track Renewal and Rehabilitation in
Upper Volta .......... ........................................... 19D. Track Maintenance Equipment ........................ 20E. Freight Cars, Tank Cars and Locomotives ... * ...... 20F. Sensitivity Analysis ............................... 20G. Total Project ...................................... 21
6. FINANCIAL EVALUATION ...... .............................. 21A. Past and Present Position ..... ..................... 21B. Future Financial Position ..... ..................... 24C. Sensitivity Analysis ...... ......................... 27
7. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND REC0O1MENDATION .................. 28
This report has been prepared by Messrs. H. Apitz (Financial Analyst/Economist),A. Defalque (Railway Engineer), H. Levy (Economist), and C. Morra (TrainingOfficer).
This document hu a restricted distribution and may be und by rocipbents only in the performanceof their official duties. It contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
Table of Contents - (Continued)
TABLES
1. Summary of Operating Statistics 1970-19762. Total Project Cost3. Training - Cost Estimates4. Estimated Schedule of Disbursements5. Summary of Rates of Return6. Income Accounts 1970-19767. Summary Balance Sheets 1970-19758. Forecast Income Accounts 1976-19829. Forecast Balance Sheets 1976-198210. Forecast Sources and Applications of Funds
ANNEXES
1. Bank Projects in the Transport Sector2. Training3. Railway Property4. Operational Plan of Action5. Passenger Traffic6. Freight Traffic7. Forecast Disbursement for Investments (1977-1982)8. Determination of Freight Car Needs, 1977-19859. Mainline Locomotive Needs in 198010. Terms of Reference for Marshalling Yard Study
and Petionara-Tafire Feasibility Study11. Details of Economic Evaluation12. Assumptions Used to Forecast RAN's Financial Statements
CHARTS
1. RAN Organization Chart2. RAN Track Characteristics
MAPS
IBRD 12751RIBRD 12752R
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
APPRAISAL OF A REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
SUMMARY
i. The objective of the railway project appraised in this report isto increase the capacity and efficiency of the Regie des Chemins de FerAbidjan-Niger (RAN) thereby permitting it to contribute to the economicdevelopment of the region it serves, i.e. all of Upper Volta, central andnorthern Ivory Coast and southeastern Mali. The project, covering the firsthalf of RAN's 1977-1982 investment program, is designed to meet RAN's capacityneeds until 1980, to rehabilitate and upgrade existing infrastructure, and tostrengthen RAN's operational and managerial effectiveness.
ii. The major portion of the region served by RAN belongs te oe ofthe poorest areas of the world. Per capita incomes in both Mali and UpperVolta were below US$100 in 1975, virtually unchanged from the 1965 level, duein particular to drought on top of a limited resource base. A moderate growthin per capita income of about 2% per annum, corresponding to a 4% growth ratein GNP, is expected for the remainder of the decade. In the more fortunateIvory Coast, with a 1975 per capita income averaging US$500, growth rates ofincome and population have been consistently high, the latter partly due toimmigration from Sahelian countries. Prospects continue to be good with GNPgrowth rates in the 6% range being forecast. In the rather poor northern partof the Ivory Coast, per capita income is about US$200, little better thansouthern Upper Volta. As the Ivorian government is increasing its developmentefforts in the northern part of the country, a higher than average growth ofincome and agricultural production may be expected there. Throughout theregion, agriculture, and further north, livestock, do and will continue toprovide the livelihood for the vast majority of people. Both agriculture andlivestock production can grow at satisfactory rates only if they can rely onefficient low-cost transport.
iii. The region is connected to the ocean by four transport corridors.The ports and modes of transport are, in decreasing order of importance,Abidjan (rail and road), Dakar (rail only), Tema (road only) and Lome (roadonly). All of the above five connections are being rehabilitated or upgraded,and the Bank Group is closely associated with four of them namely, the Abidjan-Ouagadougou railway (RAN) through the proposed project, the Abidjan-Ouagadougouroad through highway projects in both Ivory Coast and Upper Volta, the Dakar-Bamako railway through projects in both Senegal and Mali, and the Tema-Ouagadougou road through two highway projects in Ghana. Thus, improvement ofthe main arteries is well underway, and expenditures should now be concentratedon improving maintenance and efficiency and on constructing secondary andtertiary roads. These objectives increasingly dominate the Bank's strategy int;e r~L^en, including the proposed project, and the respective Governments arerr gisizing their importance tu an ever-greater degree.
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iv. The distribution of traffic between different modes and corridorsis generally satisfactory. However, due to the inefficient operations ofthe Dakar-Bamako railway, substantial amounts of Mali international trafficare being diverted to the more costly Abidjan-Bamako corridor. A significantimprovement of this distortion is expected from implementation of the ThirdMali and proposed Third Senegal railway projects, which have as their mainobjectives a substantial increase in productivity, capacity and quality ofrail service. In the transport corridor extending northward from Abidjan,there is competition between rail and road services. For freight traffic bothmodes are being subsidized in the order of 5-10% of operating costs, and theGovernments have considerable influence on rate setting for both modes. As itis not clear if this is leading to an uneconomie distortion of the modalallocation of traffic, this question will be analyzed in depth by the planningand research unit being set up in the Ivorian Ministry of Transport. Moreover,this and similar units in Upper Volta and Mali, also being established underthe auspices of Bank Group-financed highway projects, will be given an impor-tant role in resolving the transport sector issues spelled out above.
v. RAN's essential role is to provide low-cost transport of satis-factory quality for passengers and freight between Abidjan and the regionserved by the railway. The railway's basic organizational structure is ade-quate to enable it to fulfill this role. RAN is a multinational, financiallyautonomous agency owned by the Governments of the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta.The railway's Articles of Agreement and their application reflect a soundbalance between the railway's managerial autonomy and the Governments' in-fluence over major policy matters. RAN's internal organizational structurewas adequate during the 1960s. More recently, however, as a function ofthe growth of the railway's operations and its investment volume, criticalproblems in RAN's information and planning systems and in its operationsand equipment maintenance have become apparent. The proposed project willprovide technical assistance and training to help solve these problems.
vi. RAN has a permanent staff of about 5,100. Some overstaffing isapparent, and under the project RAN will make every effort to increase staffproductivity by maintaining approximately the present overall staff levelthrough the end of 1978 and by accelerating training efforts.
vii. In general, RAN's 1975 financial statements are based on soundaccounting principles. An ongoing re-organization will further improveasset valuation and cost accounting. Additionally, the project provides forstrengthening planning and management and for a more comprehensive audit.The operational and investment budgets annually prepared by RAN will bereviewed by the Bank before their presentation to the railway's Board ofDirectors.
viii. RAN operates a 1,159-km, single-track, meter-gauge line from Abidjanin the Ivory Coast to Ouagadougou in Upper Volta. There is only one shortbranch line. Infrastructure is generally well maintained, but some sectionsmust soon be renewed, Equally important, a large part of the railway's motivepower and rolling stock is approaching the end of its useful life at a time
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when additional capacity is needed to carry forecast traffic increases. Thisresults in a need for substantial investment in rolling equipment, even aftertaking into account improvements in operating efficiency as laid down in anagreed operational plan of action associated with the proposed project.
ix. RAN's freight traffic grew historically at rather high rates. Inaccordance with RAN's marketing strategy, freight traffic operations havefocused and will continue to focus on commodities such as cement, petroleumproducts, fertilizer, sugar, cotton and oil seeds. In concentrating on car-rying these and some other commodities, RAN takes full advantage of itscompetitive superiority over road transport to carry major commodities overlong distances at low cost and at a satisfactory speed. The traffic forecastsmake due allowance for strong trucking competition, in particular for shortand some medium hauls for commodities such as general cargo, beverages andfood. Freight traffic is expected to reach 1.4 million tons and 883 milliont-km by 1985, corresponding to an annual growth rate of about 6.5% in bothtonnage and t-km. Development of passenger traffic has followed a firmpattern based on regional population growth, Ivorian economic developmentand travel demand from migrant workers, mostly from Upper Volta. This pat-tern will continue to prevail, and forecasts have been established accord-ingly, resulting in growth rates of 2.8% in number of passengers and 5.7%in passenger-km.
x. RAN's 1977-1982 investment program, totalling US$211 million includ-ing contingencies, is designed to meet capacity demands, rehabilitate andupgrade infrastructure and maintain RAN's financial viability. The plan,which will be updated annually in consultation with the Bank, contains fourcomponents, totalling US$45 million, the scope and timing of which must stillbe determined in consultation between the Ivorian Government, RAN and theBank, based in three cases on studies included in the proposed project. Theelements of the proposed project have been selected from the 1978-79 portionof the investment plan to meet RAN's most urgent requirements. They include:(a) rehabilitation and upgrading of infrastructure in both the Ivory Coastand Upper Volta and procurement of track maintenance equipment (US$33.2million); (b) procurement of locomotives and freight cars (US$26.0 million);(c) a training and technical assistance component (US$4.0 million); and(d) interest during construction (US$3.0 million). Total cost is estimatedat US$66.2 million equivalent, net of taxes, including local costs of US$10.0million equivalent. Financing is assured by credits from CIDA (US$29.2million), the proposed IDA credit to Upper Volta (US$5.2 million), theproposed Bank loan to RAN (US$23.0 million), and contributions from bothGovernments and RAN (US$8.8 million).
xi. The proposed Bank loan and IDA credit would be used for the infra-structure component, track maintenance equipment, training and technical,assistance and interest during construction. All major Bank- and IDA-financeditems will be procured in accordance with Bank Group guidelines. Items to-talling about $20.0 million will be procured by international competitivebidding or, with regard to consulting services, comparable methods. Otheritems will be procured from Canadian suppliers, by force account, local com-petitive bidding and from traditional suppliers due to the size of contractsand/or the need for standardization.
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xii. The project is expected to produce benefits through increasingthe transport capacity of RAN, which is the most economic mode of transport,thereby avoiding diversion of present and future rail traffic to road trans-port, and through savings in operating and maintenance costs and avoidanceof accidents. The economic rate of return of the entire project is estimatedat 23%, and all individual project components are economically justified evenunder slow traffic-growth assumptions utilized for sensitivity analysis pur-poses. Rates of return are still satisfactory even when the highly improb-able, simultaneous occurance of slow traffic growth, high rail-transportcosts and higher than estimated project costs is assumed.
xiii. RAN's operating revenue and costs grew rapidly and virtually inparallel during the 1970-1976 period, producing a corresponding cash flowincrease of about 200%. The railway's investment volume, however, increasedmuch more rapidly than its cash flow, entailing borrowing on a much largerscale and a drop of the debt service coverage ratio from 9.0 in 1970 to 1.5
in 1976. As investment needs will remain high for several years in orderto maintain RAN's competitiveness with road transport and to increase capa-city, there is a need for a massive increase in cash generation from opera-tions. To achieve this objective, RAN and the Bank have agreed on the basicelements of a corporate plan, including implementation of RAN's marketingstrategy, its operational plan of action, and measures to increase staffproductivity. Additionally, tariff increases exceeding inflationary costincreases by about 18% over the three years 1977-1979 are needed, limitedhowever to about the above percentage in order not to jeopardize RAN's compe-
titive position. Implementation of these measures will lead to a satisfactoryearning situation by 1979, reflected in expected working ratios of 78% in1978 and 73% thereafter. RAN agreed to maximum working ratios of 78% in 1978,75% thereafter. In addition, a debt limitation based on a minimum debtservice coverage ratio of 1.5 was agreed upon.
xiv. The above ratios do not take into account the substantial paymentsfrom both Governments to the railway for maintenance, renewal and constructionof infrastructure. Due to RAN's high investment needs, these contributionsare necessary for RAN's financial viability in the medium-term; and moretimely payment by the Governments is needed and is being provided in order toremedy RAN's present cash shortage. From 1980 onwards, however, a substantialreduction of contribution payments may be possible, and timely consultationson this subject between the Governments, RAN and the Bank have been agreed`.
Finally, the project ensures that the Governments will take appropriatemeasures to protect RAN's cash position should a cash shortfall materializedue to a worse-than-expected development of one or several of the factors onwhich the financial forecasts depend, mainly a shortfall in traffic volumesand higher-than-expected staff costs.
xv. The proposed project with conditions as stipulated is suitable for
an IDA credit of US$5.2 million to the Government of Upper Volta and a Bankloan of US$23.0 million to RAN with the Government of the Ivory Coast asguarantor for a period of 17 years, including a grace period of 4 years.The Government of Upper Volta would guarantee jointly and severally with theIvory Coast a portion of the loan, amounting to about US$6 million and corres-ponding to items which are not exclusively located in the Ivory Coast.
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
APPRAISAL OF A REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
1. INTRODUCTION
1.01 The Governments of the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta and theRegie des Chemins de Fer Abidjan-Niger (RAN) have asked the Bank to helpfinance a regional railway project. The objective is to assist RAN in effec-tively playing its important role in the economic development of the regionit serves, i.e., all of Upper Volta, central and northern Ivory Coast andsouth-eastern Mali. The project is designed to meet RAN's capacity needsuntil 1980, to rehabilitate and upgrade existing infrastructure and tostrengthen RAN's operational and managerial effectiveness.
1.02 Total project cost is estimated at about US$63.2 million equivalent,net of taxes, including foreign costs of about US$53.2 million (84%). To helpfinance the project and interest during construction (US$3 million), a Bankloan of US$23.0 million to RAN and an IDA credit of US$5.2 million to UpperVolta are proposed; CIDA has agreed in principle to provide about US$29.2million, and the two Governments and RAN would cover the balance of aboutUS$8.8 million.
1.03 This would be the first Bank Group operation for the benefit ofRAN and the ninth for transport in the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta. Theeight preceding Bank Group operations include five highway projects in theIvory Coast and three highway projects in Upper Volta; details of theseprojects are given in Annex 1.
1.04 This report is based on information provided by RAN and on thefindings of an appraisal mission in September/October 1976 composed of Messrs.H. Apitz (Financial Analyst/Economist), C. Buratti (Engineer/Motive PowerSpecialist), A. Defalque (Engineer), P. Koenig (Loan Officer), G. Morra(Training Officer) and J. Rolfo (Economist). Mr. H. Levy (Economist) alsohelped to prepare this report.
2. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
A. The Regional Setting
2.01 The landlocked Sahelian countries of West Africa need cheap andreliable access to the Atlantic Ocean. For southeastern Mali, Upper Voltaand subsahelian northern Ivory Coast as a region, the Abidjan rail/road cor-ridor is the principal link to the sea. (For Mali alone, the Dakar corridoris equally important.) Within the Abidjan corridor RAN is the most economicmode. The railway carries about 80% of the traffic to and from Upper Voltaand the northern Ivory Coast and some traffic of Southern Mali.
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2.02 The major portion of this region served by RAN is part of one ofthe poorest areas of the world. Per capita income in both Mali and UpperVolta, which together have a population of about ll million, was below US$100in 1975, virtually unchanged from the 1965 level. The lack of growth of percapita income was the result of the recent series of severe droughts in a re-gion which already suffers from several significant developmental constraints.The droughts brought about heavy losses of cattle and crops both for exportand domestic consumption, thus necessitating relief food imports totallingabout 2 million tons in 1972-75. Developmental constraints include: (i) longtransport distances, both to export-import outlets and within the regionitself; (ii) a weak agricultural base stemming mainly from low and ill-distributed rainfall; (iii) a serious shortage of skilled manpower; and(iv) the absence of important mineral resources, with the exception of amanganese ore deposit of about 12 million tons near Tambao in northern UpperVolta. Studies on the economic and financial viability of extracting this oreare still inconclusive, high transport costs being a major factor.
2.03 In the more fortunate Ivory Coast, with a 1975 per capita incomeaveraging US$500 and a population of about 6.7 million, growth rates ofincome and population have been consistently high, the latter partly due toimmigration from Sahelian countries. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP)has averaged 6% since 1970, based on assets such as an abundance of fertileland and extensive forestry resources, a climate favorable to agriculture andshort transport distances within the southern part of the country. Agricul-tural produce, consisting largely of cocoa, coffee and timber, accounts for86% of total exports, and Government policy emphasizes increasing the outputof these commodities, accompanied by diversification into additional cropsincluding sugar, rice and soybeans. Production of the latter crops will beconcentrated in the relatively poor northern part of the country, where percapita income averaged only about $200 in 1975. The longer distance to thesea and the consumption centers in the south of the country accentuate theimportance of efficient, low-cost transport for the development of the north.
2.04 Current forecasts for the remainder of the 1970's predict annualGDP growth rates of about 4% for Mali and Upper Volta and about 6% for theIvory Coast. As the Ivorian Government is increasing its development effortsin the northern part of the country, a higher-than-average growth of income,agricultural production and transport demand may be expected for the north.Throughout the region, agriculture, and further north, livestock, do and willcontinue to provide the livelihood for the vast majority of people. Bothagriculture and livestock can grow at satisfactory rates only if they cancount on cheap and reliable transport, thus underlining the importance ofthe proposed project.
B. The Regional Transport System
2.05 The Ivory Coast, Upper Volta and Mali are connected to the oceanby four transport corridors. The corresponding ports and modes of transport
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are, in decreasing order of importance, Abidjan (rail and road), Dakar (railonly), Tema (road only) and Lome (road only). By far the most importantinternational transport route for Upper Volta is the railway (RAN), whichprovides the most economic route to the sea for the economically activewestern and central areas of the country. However, to reduce that country'sdependence on the railway connection to Abidjan, the Upper Voltan andTogolese Governments plan to upgrade the road link between Ouagadougou andLome. This would create a high-standard route to the ocean as an alternativeto the existing paved road to Tema in Ghana. However, the routes throughTema (Ghana) and Lome (Togo), although about 15% shorter than the Abidjan-Ouagadougou rail-line, are second-best alternatives so far as transport costis concerned, except for the southeastern part of Upper Volta where not muchtraffic is generated. For this part of the country, transport costs of thethree different routes are roughly equal. Furthermore, the port of Abidjanhas good natural characteristics and is capable of being expanded to accommo-date increased traffic. For Mali, the main connections to the Atlantic Oceanfor overseas trade are provided by the Dakar-Bamako railway through Senegaland the road and rail/road routes through the Ivory Coast over which abouthalf of Mali's 1975 international traffic passed. The Senegal route ischeaper for about 70% of Mali's international traffic, but traffic is beingdiverted to the alternative route through the Ivory Coast because of opera-tional and other difficulties on the Dakar-Bamako line (para. 2.08).
2.06 In the Ivory Coast RAN runs parellel to the road between Abidjanand the Upper Voltan border. For short distances (less than 300 km) theflexibility and rapidity of service weigh strongly in favor of road trans-port in the inter-modal allocation as illustrated by the average road trans-port haul in the Ivory Coast (224 km), three times less than the average railhaul. For traffic north of Bouake (about 80% of total rail traffic on a ton-km basis), there is rail/road competition although the longer distances anda high proportion of bulk commodities give the railway a strong cost advan- \
tage over the road.
C. Regional Transport Issues
2.07 It is essential for the region to improve and fully utilize the ex-isting transport infrastructure both within the Sahelian countries and theirneighboring transit countries. Reliable access to import-export outlets isvital for the landlocked Sahelian countries. The five connections listedabove are presently being upgraded. The Bank Group is closely associatedwith four of these transport links, namely: the Abidjan-Ouagadougou railwaythrough the proposed project, the Abidjan-Ouagadougou road through highwayprojects in both Ivory Coast and Upper Volta, upgrading and rehabilitationof the Tema-Ouagadougou road through two highway projects in Ghana and theDakar-Bamako railway through actual and proposed projects in both Senegal andMali. Improvement of the main arteries is well underway, and infrastructureexpenditures should now be concentrated on the improvement of maintenance,renewal and operational efficiency of the existing sytem and on constructionof secondary and feeder roads. These objectives increasingly dominate theBank's strategy in the region, including the proposed project, and theirimportance is increasingly recognized by the respective Governments.
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2.08 The distribution of traffic among different modes and corridorsis in general adequate. Due, however, to the unsatisfactory operationalefficiency of the Dakar-Bamako railway, substantial amounts of traffic arebeing diverted to the more costly Abidjan-Bamako corridor. Correction ofthis distortion can be expected from implementation of the Third Mali andproposed Senegal railway projects, which have as their main objective anincrease in productivity, capacity and quality of service. In the transportcorridor extending northward from Abidjan, there is competition between railand road. In the southern part between Abidjan and Bouake r-oad transportprevails. For longer journeys the railway has a cost advantage, especiallyfor bulk commodities. In both the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta, freighttransport is subsidized on both modes of transport: directly for the railway,as each country supports 60% of the cost of infrastructure maintenance on itsown territory; indirectly for roads, as the user taxes paid by trucks, partic-ularly heavy ones, are below corresponding user costs. Whether the dualsubsidization, combined with the Governments' considerable influence on ratesetting for both modes, leads to significant distortions in the allocation oftransport is not known, first of all because the amount of subsidization foroperational costs is estimated at only 5-10% for both modes (trucking sub-sidies in Upper Volta may be somewhat higher), and secondly because factorsother than costs, such as flexibility and time savings, are often more impor-tant in the choice between rail and rcad. However, a study of the presentsituation is needed to determine if and to what extent uneconomic distortionsof the modal allocation of traffic do exist, if they are caused to a signifi-cant extent by the above subsidies and what changes in the subsidy and taxa-tion system would be needed to improve the modal distribution of traffie. ThePlanning and Research Unit, presently being set up in the Ivorian Ministry ofTransport in the context of the Fifth Highway Project, is an appropriate bodyto undertake this study, with adequate participation by a corresponding unitin the Voltaic Ministry of Transport and by outside consultants. Twentyman-months of consultants' services will be included for this purpose in theproposed Ivory Coast feeder road and highway maintenance project being pre-pared. Both Governments have agreed that the study will be executed andcompleted by March 1979 and that they will review its conclusions with theBank.
2.09 Thus, throughout the region served by RAN, there is a considerableneed to strengthen transport planning and coordination. To carry out thiswork, transport planning units are being set up in each of the three countriesunder the auspices of Bank Group-financed highway projects. These unitsshould be fully staffed with expatriate experts and local counterpartsby late 1977 and are expected to make an important contribution to resolv-ing the above issues and to improving regional cooperation.
3. THE RAN RAILWAY
A. Organization and Management
3.01 RAN is a multinational, financially and operationally autonomousagency responsible for the maintenance and operation of railway facilities
directly or indirectly owned by the Governments of the Ivory Coast and UpperVolta. RAN's Articles of Agreement, laid down in an international agreementbetween the Governments of the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta dated April 30,1960, are based on the sound principles of protecting the railway's opera-tional autonomy and financial viability. Construction of new lines has tobe financed by the respective Government, and losses in RAN's income accounts,which may result from insufficient tariff increases, have to be covered byGovernment subsidies. The above principles have in general been success-fully upheld by RAN's 17-member Board of Directors, composed of four Gov-ernment representatives and three representatives of railway users fromeach country, and of three members representing the railway's staff. Tar-iff increases in particular have been timely and adequate to cope withoperating cost increases.
3.02 RAN's general manager is appointed by the Board, subject to theagreement of both Governments. The general manager is in charge of both day-to-day operations and proposals to the Board and the Governments on policymatters. These arrangements have worked well as a safeguard against undueinterference in RAN's day-to-day operations; they have worked less satisfac-torily regarding railway and transport sector planning, as both the railway'sand the Governments' planning mechanisms need strengthening. This is nowunderway on the governmental level in the context of the Fifth HighwayProject in the Ivory Coast and the Third Highway Project in Upper Volta (cf.paras. 2.08 and 2.09). The railway's planning capacity is expected to beimproved through provision of technical assistance for this purpose underthe proposed project (para. 3.10).
3.03 RAN's internal organization is shown in Chart 1. This organizationis fundamentally sound and worked satisfactorily until about 1970. Sincethen critical problems in the railway's information and planning systems andits operations and equipment maintenance services have become apparent,as a result of growth of the railway's operations and its investment volume.The proposed project makes provision for consulting services to recommend andassist in implementing improvements in these vital areas through upgradingand strengthening of organizational structures and procedures.
B. Staff and Training
3.04 RAN's operations staff at the end of 1976 totaled about 5,100, an in-crease of about 12% since 1973 in spite of only moderate traffic increases inrecent years. This figure does not include about 800 temporary staff assignedto investment programs such as the on-going realignment works of the Dimbokro-Bouake section. Overstaffing appears to be critical in the Motive Power andRolling Stock workshops as a result of a weak organizational and managerialstructure. RAN is aware of this problem and is employing consultants toassist in determining and implementing the necessary improvements. The
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qualifications of the railway's staff is rather uneven in most departments andat most levels, which underlines the importance of the training component ofthe proposed project.
3.05 To control its manpower problems more efficiently, RAN has agreedon the following: (i) to try to regain quickly the 1973 level of staff produc-tivity by maintaining through the end of 1978 a staff of not more than 5,200for operations, with necessary additions in some departments being offset byreductions in others; and (ii) to prepare by June 1978 a draft five-yearmanpower plan (1978 to 1982) to be discussed with the Bank with the objectiveof agreeing on a specific five-year program.
3.06 RAN's management at the departmental and top levels has been en-tirely Africanized, with the exception of one departmental director. RAN'smanagement personnel is, in general, well qualified but with potential forfurther development. There are, moreover, about 60 expatriate technicalassistants -- a substantial number. They are somewhat unevenly distributedamong RAN's departments, filling partly advisory, partly medium-level linepositions. RAN is endeavoring to develop the management potential of itsstaff and to reduce its dependence on expatriate assistance. The proposedproject makes adequate provisions for management consulting services (para.4.16), which will start with the setting up of a plan of action to assistRAN in this task. However, technical assistance will still be needed fora considerable period. RAN will consult with the Bank annually on therailway's expected technical assistance requirements and on specific, appro-priately timed measures.
3.07 Technical training was carried out on an ad hoc basis up to 1973.In 1974, based on recommendations contained in a study made by SOFRERAIL,a Training Division (TD) was established, and a more systematic trainingprogram has since been instituted. Because of scarce training facilities,lack of training equipment, poor working relations between the TD and someof the operating departments, and the limited experience of some of theinstructors, technical training has so far produced only modest results.During the past three years short retraining courses have been completed forskilled workers and supervisors, and training of an increasing number ofnew recruits has also been carried out. In spite of the general emphasison training responsibilities in their terms of reference, the training actu-ally carried out by French technical assistants in RAN's operating departmentshas been rather limited and needs to be improved in the next several years.Considerable effort is, therefore, now required to strengthen the TD toenable it to meet both present and future technical training needs. Manage-ment training, until now limited to sporadic efforts, will be carried outunder the Management and Operations Consulting Services (paras. 4.15 and4.16).
C. Accounts, Budgets. Planning and Audit
3.08 RAN's accounting system is undergoing a major reorganization assistedby qualified expatriate experts. The 1975 financial statements are in generalbased on sound accounting principles, conforming to procedures recommended by
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the Organisation Commune des Etats Africains et Malgache (OCAM). Details re-garding valuations and depreciation of assets are discussed later in thisreport (para. 6.04 and 6.07). Additionally, a basically sound and rathersophisticated costing system is being introduced and is expected to be opera-tional by late-1977. The new costing system will facilitate and improvebudgeting and cost control, and it will provide an important basis for RAN'stariff policy. However, training of Africans to operate and further developthe new accounting and costing systems is lagging behind schedule. RAN'smanagement is aware of this problem and is making adequate efforts to solveit. The consultants' contracts have already been extended, and extensionbeyond the presently planned termination in late-1977 may be needed and havebeen discussed under the arrangements mentioned in para. 3.06.
3.09 RAN annually prepares an operational budget and an investment budget.The operational budget is a detailed and thoroughly prepared document, and RANplans now to enhance its value as a management and control instrument by in-tegrating it with the new costing system. The annual investment budgetwas until 1976 limited to those investments which were financed out of therailway's renewal fund and excluded, therefore, all capital investment financedthrough borrowings. RAN's 1977 investment budget, however, reflects theentire investment program and the proposed financing plan. RAN agreed that,beginning with FY1978, both the operational and the investment budgets will besubmitted to the Bank for review at least 30 days before the date scheduledfor consideration by RAN's Board but in any event not later than one monthbefore the beginning of the fiscal year covered by the budget. The same wouldapply, mutatis mutandis, to any amendments to the original investment budgetsproposed to be made during the year.
3.10 RAN's planning function needs strengthening, including a cleardefinition of RAN's long-term role and financial objectives, as planning islimited to the above budgets and to a medium-term investment plan, which arelargely established on an ad-hoc basis and do not always adequately reflecteconomic and financial considerations. Equally important, the data basefor systematic planning is too weak and not always reliable. The proposedproject makes adequate provisions to meet these needs through the establish-ment of a small corporate planning unit attached to the office of the generalmanager and a centralized statistical service attached to the planning unit.
3.11 RAN's accounts are audited in compliance with the railway's statutesby two "Commissaires aux Comptes," appointed by the Ministers of Finance ofthe Ivory Coast and Upper Volta. The provisions of the statutes meet BankGroup standards regarding the audit of borrowers' accounts. The auditors'reports do not, however, reflect the execution of proper checks of RAN'saccounts or a thorough analysis of what the auditors consider to be problemareas, in particular with regard to financial management. The railway hasagreed that from FY1977 onwards its accounts will be audited by qualified,independent auditors in accordance with generally accepted auditingprinciples.
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D. Property
3.12 RAN operates a 1,159-km single track, meter-gauge rail line fromAbidjan (Vridi port) in the Ivory Coast to Ouagadougou in Upper Volta (seeMap). There is a 14-km branch line from Azaguie, 42 km north of Abidjan, toAke-Befiat and also a double-track section of about 16 km between Cechi andAnoumaba, about 130 km north of Abidjan. Track is generally well maintainedbut some sections need renewal because of the poor condition of old trackmaterial due to its age, deteriorated subgrade, severe characteristicsof the profile or inadequate track material. A large part of the railway'smotive power and a substantial number of freight cars are obsolete and have tobe replaced. In addition, new equipment is needed to carry the forecastincrease of traffic. The overall signalling system is adequate for presenttraffic. Communication facilities along the Abidjan-Ouagadougou line areinadequate to provide efficient traffic control. RAN is in the process ofimproving these facilities by constructing a new radio link which will ena'olethe railway to improve control of train movement. A brief description ofrailway track, structures, equipment and other property is presented in Chart2 and Annex 3.
E. Operations
3o13 A summary of operating statistics for RAN for 1970-1976 is presentedin Table 1. Operating efficiency dropped from 1973 to 1975 as a result of aslump in traffic demand, insufficient management control and an increase instaff. Staff productivity is, however, still higher than for other comparableWest African railways. The main areas where drastic improvement should beobtained and which will be covered by various components of the project are:(i) average load per train; (ii) monthly mileage and number of breakdownsof locomotives; (iii) turnaround time of freight cars; (iv) utilization ofpassenger coaches; and (v) train delays.
3.14 The average load per train can be increased by improving the geo-metric characteristics of the line and by improving the efficiency of opera-tions and maintenance of equipment. The availability of motive power israther low. However, RAN's newest locomotives are no longer susceptible to--'fficulties stemming from the fact that they were prototype units, and itîs expected that their overall utilization factor will reach 65% to 70% by1980-1982 (80% of technical availability and 85% of utilization of availablemotive power). The availability of rolling stock is rather high for freightcars (about 96%). The turnaround time for 1975 is high due to the slump oftraffic from the peak of 1973. The utilization of passenger coaches appearsto be low, and this should be improved by better scheduling and a more effi-cient organization of the Operations and Motive Power & Rolling Stock Depart-ments.
3.15 The operational plan of action for the period 1977 to 1982 is shownin Annex 4 and has been agreed upon with RAN. The operational targets aredemanding but can be achieved during this period. The operational plan ofaction has been incorporated in the proposed Loan Agreement.
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F. Traffic
Passenger Traffic
3.16 During the period 1960-1975 the number of passengers per yeardoubled from 1.5 to 3.0 million (Annex 5). The annual increase followed aclear linear trend, corresponding to a growth rate of 2.9% at the end of theperiod. As average distance travelled more than doubled during 1960-1975,travel demand expressed in passenger kilometers (pass-km) increased rapidly,with a growth rate of 8.5% between 1970 and 1975. Average travel distancesincreased as interstate traffic, generated predominantly by growing numbers ofmigrant workers from Upper Volta, grew at a faster pace than Ivorian andVoltaic domestic traffic. Interstate traffic presently generates two-thirdsof all passenger-kilometers. There has also been a shift toward longerjourneys in Ivorian domestic traffic as more people travel by road for shorttrips.
3.17 The above trends are expected to continue in the future: moderategrowth in the number of passengers, accompanied by a more rapid growth inpassenger-kilometers. To quantify the forecast, a linear regression modelhas been used in which the independent variables are the two major factorsresponsible for the growth of RAN's passenger traffic, namely the populationsof the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta and the Ivorian GDP. The resulting fore-cast predicts somewhat slower growth rates for 1976-1985 than in the past,specifically 2.8% for passengers and 5.7% for pass-km.
Freight Traffic
3.18 RAN's freight traffic grew historically at rather high rates.Annual growth rates, expressed in ton-km, averaged 5.8% during the decade1966 to 1976, although the annual average during the period 1966-1973 was8.2%, a figure which eliminates the impact of the Sahelian droughts and thegeneral economic recession on railway traffic. Freight traffic, which hadgrown rapidly from 393 million ton-km in 1970 to 480 million ton-km in 1973,dropped back to 377 million ton-km in 1975. Since late 1975 traffic has beenpicking up at an annual rate of about 30% and in 1976 slightly exceeded the1973 peak. The economic recovery in the Ivory Coast and relatively good cropsin the Sahel explain this traffic increase.
3.19 RAN achieved its growth of freight traffic in spite of rather strongcompetition from road transport, particularly for short- and medium-distancesand for origins and destinations which necessitate more than one transshipment.During 1970-1975 RAN lost much short- and medium-haul traffic to trucking, andthe railway's average haul increased accordingly by 17% to about 700 km. Thepresent structure of RAN's freight traffic well reflects the railway's compe-titive position. RAN's strength lies in carrying major commodities on longhauls; six such commodities dominate its freight traffic: cotton, oil-seeds,
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sugar, petroleum products, cement and fertilizer. Their share of commercialfreight tonnage increased from 41% in 1970 to 54% in 1975. On the other handRAN plays only a small role in the transport of the Ivory Coast's three majorexport commodities--timber, coffee, and cocoa--which are evacuated over rathershort distances almost exclusively by trucks.
3.20 Traffic forecasts are based on RAN's marketing strategy of takingfull advantage of its competitive superiority over road transport by focusingon carrying major commodities over long distances at low cost. The forecastsassume that RAN, which has a comparatively efficient marketing and salesdepartment, will be reasonably successful in implementing its marketingstrategy. RAN agrees with the forecasts and considers them an essential partof the railway's corporate objectives. They have, accordingly, been incorpo-rated into the draft Loan Agreement. The forecasts, nevertheless, contain anelement of risk in that plan implementation may lag behind schedule. There-fore, the sensitivity analyses make the rather severe assumption that only 50%of expected freight traffic growth will materialize.
3.21 RAN is in the process of concluding long-term transport contractsand making other appropriate arrangements with large individual customers.Examples of these arrangements are: branch lines which are being built to newsugar plants, thus ensuring that sugar and molasses will be evacuated by railto Abidjan; for northbound cement traffic, RAN is assisting the major Ivorianproducer in expanding its loading capacity and in constructing depots forregional distribution along the rail line. Regarding petroleum products, therailway will introduce in 1977 the use of block trains to improve tank-carproductivity. The petroleum companies have assured RAN that they will procureenough additional rolling stock to cope with expected demand. The share ofcommercial freight tonnage of these four commodities, plus cotton, oil-seedsand fertilizer where RAN's competitive superiority is equally strong, isexpected to increase from 54% in 1975 to 67% in 1980 and 74% in 1985. Theserapid increases of traffic volumes are expected to be accompanied by losses toroad competition of much of the little short-haul traffic which RAN is stillcarrying and by a weakening position even for medium and long hauls forgeneral cargo, beverages and food. Thus, freight traffic is expected to reach1.4 million tons and 880 million ton-km by 1985, corresponding to an annualgrowth rate of about 6.5% in both tonnage and ton-km.
4. THE PLAN AND THE PROJECT
A. RAN's Investment Plan
4.01 RAN's original investment plan 1975-1980 was revised after con-siderable discussion with the Bank focusing on the following objectives:(a) providing sufficient transport capacity to meet expected demand; (b)rehabilitating and upgrading existing infrastructure; and (c) improving
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the balance between the timing of capital investment and the existing finan-
cial resources. The revised investment plan, established by RAN on a commit-
ment basis, was transformed into a forecast disbursement schedule for invest-
ments, covering the period 1977 to 1982 (Annex 7). Total investment is
estimated at US$211 million with contingencies. This includes ongoing proj-ects and two projects for which financing has been secured in principle from
other donors (US$45 million), and new works (US$166 million) which can be
broken down in five categories: (i) the proposed project ($63.2 million);
(ii) routine rehabilitation, renewal of equipment and material, and studies(US$32.5 million); (iii) procurement toward the end of the investment period
of additional motive power and rolling stock, subject to review based on the
development of actual needs (US$25.1 million); (iv) rail access to the planned
expansion of the Abidjan port, which would be subject to port expansion and
possible construction of loading facilities for the Tambao manganese ore(US$9 million); and (v) three infrastructure projects totalling US$36.2
million (improvement of marshalling yard and rolling stock maintenance facil-
ities mainly in Abidjan, upgrading of the 82-km section from Petionara to
Tafire and doubling of track on the 22-km section Azaguie-Yapo) for which
satisfactory solutions still need to be determined through feasibility stud-
ies included in the proposed project.
4.02 The disbursements during 1977-1982 for the projects in (iv) and(v) above are estimated at $45 million with contingencies. Agreement hasbeen reached with the Ivorian Government and RAN that the solutions to be
eventually adopted for these four projects will be determined in consultation
with the Bank. To ensure that the findings of the feasibility studies will be
adequately reflected in RAN's infrastructure investment, the railway has
agreed that it will not begin to implement nor incur any debt for the three
projects mentioned in para. 4.01 (v) before the findings of the studies have
been discussed with the Bank.
4.03 It will be the task of the corporate planning unit, to be set up
as part of the proposed project (para. 3.10), to review and update annuallyRAN's investment plan and, based on this review, to draw up an annual in-
vestment budget to be submitted to the railway's Board of Directors. Theupdating of RAN's investments plan will be made in consultation with the
Bank.
B. The Project
4.04 All the items to be provided in the project are needed to meetthe railway's most urgent requirements. They have been selected from amongthe items of the 1978-1979 portion of the railway investment plan mentionedabove. Locomotives and freight cars to be ordered at the end of 1977 fordelivery by January 1980 are included in the project. The project comprises:
(a) the realignment of the 89-km Bouake-Petionara section;
(b) the renewal of track material on 4 km near Ouangolodougou andprovision of 60 turnouts (two-year program);
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(c) track improvement in Upper Volta consisting of: (i) therenewal of sleepers on 40 km (two-year portion of an 11-yearprogram covering the most northerly 222 km of the system);(ii) the reinforcement of eroded fills; and (iii) additionalballasting on 100 km mainly between Bobo-Dioualasso and Bereba;
(d) the renewal of track maintenance equipment and the procurementof additional such equipment and spare parts;
(e) the procurement of 210 box cars and 18 mainline locomotives;
(f) the expansion and construction of physical training facilities,the procurement of furniture and training equipment, and pro-vision of technical assistance to carry out technical trainingfor skilled labor and supervisors;
(g) consulting services for the improvement of the railway's manage-ment and operations and for management training; and
(h) feasibility studies for: (i) the improvement of RAN's Abidjanmarshalling yard and rolling stock maintenance facilities (Annex10); (ii) the determination of an optimal and economically viablesolution for the proposed Petionara-Tafire infrastructure improve-ment (Annex 10); and (iii) an evaluation of RAN's plan to doubleits track from Abidjan to Agboville and, ultimately, to Bouake.
4.05 The total cost of the project, net of taxes, is estimated at US$63.2million equivalent, including a foreign exchange cost of US$53.2 million(84%). A tax exemption on the execution of the project and a customs dutyexemption on equipment and goods imported for the project will be grantedthe railway. Project costs in end-1976 prices and the assumptions used tocalculate contingencies are shown in Table 2 and summarized below.
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(CFAF 245 = US$1.00)------CFAF Million ----- -----US$ Million-------Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total
(a) Realignment of theBouake-PetionaraSection 1257 3099 4356 5.2 12.6 17.8
(b) Renewal of track inthe Ivory Coast 15 336 351 0.1 1.3 1.4
(c) Track improvement inUpper Volta 398 781 1179 1.6 3.2 4.8
(d) Track maintenanceequipment - 369 369 - 1.5 1.5
(e) 210 box cars - 2317 2317 - 9.5 9.5(f) 18 main-line loco-
motives - 3038 3038 - 12.4 12.4(g) Training 68 260 328 0.3 1.1 1.4(h) Consulting services 45 251 296 0.2 1.0 1.2(i) Feasibility studies 13 73 86 - 0.3 0.3
TOTAL BASE COST 1796 10524 12320 7.4 42.9 50.3
Physical contingencies 178 347 525 0.7 1.5 2.2Total with physicalcontingencies 1974 10871 12845 8.1 44.4 52.5Price contingencies 468 2153 2621 1.9 8.8 10.7
Total with all con-tingencies 2442 13024 15466 10.0 53.2 63.2
Improvement of the Bouake-Petionara Section
4.06 By 1978, after completion of the ongoing realignment works ofthe Dimbokro-Bouake section (EIB-FED financing), nearly the whole system willhave uniform standards (500 m minimum-curve radius and 10 mm/m maximum grad-ient) except for the Bouake-Tafire stretch (172 km) which lies between thepreviously realigned section Abidjan-Bouake and the Tafire-Ouagadougou sec-tion, which was constructed to those standards. On the Bouake-Tafire sectionthe track material is wearing out and must be renewed, and the subgrade mustbe rehabilitated. The renewal and rehabilitation must take place within thenext few years in order to maintain traffic safety and to avoid capacityconstraints and high costs which would otherwise arise from derailments andrail breakages. RAN plans to rebuild 162 km of this section on a new align-ment to uniform standards providing substantial savings in operating costs andtravel time. The first part of the proposed new route, Bouake-Petionara (89km), is the optimum solution as determined by extensive studies executedby RAN's civil works department and reviewed by the Bank. Thus, realignment ofthis section is included in the proposed project. Most of the then remaining83-km stretch Petionara-Tafire will need track renewal and subgrade reha-bilitation shortly thereafter and should then be upgraded to the otherwise
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uniform standards on about 77 km. The proposed project includes funds forstudies to determine a technically and economically satisfactory solution forthis stretch.
Track Renewal in the Ivory Coast
4.07 In the Ivory Coast the track on section PK 589-593 betweenFerkessedougou and Ouangolodougou is affected by heavy corrugation whichcauses track instability despite frequent maintenance. Train speed has beenreduced to avoid accidents, and maintenance and repair costs are high forboth track and rolling stock. RAN proposes replacing the track material onthis section, and the project includes funds for that purpose. Replacement ofworn-out turnouts is urgent in several places, and the 60 turnouts included inthe project correspond to a two-year program. RAN's proposals are adequate inthe interests of traffic safety, reduced maintenance and repair costs, andincreased operating speeds.
Track Improvement in Upper Volta
4.08 Several fills are badly eroded in Upper Volta, p5incipally betweenBanfora and Koudougou. On 13 eroded fills about 180,000 m of earthworks areneeded and should be executed by contractors. RAN requested that these worksbe included in the present project. Since long traffic disruptions may occurin case of fill collapse and traffic safety may be in jeopardy, these workshave been included in the proposed project.
4.09 From PK 923, 38 km north of Bereba, to Ouagadougou (PK 1145), thetrack was raid on concrete sleepers (1500 sleepers/km) at the time of itsconstruction (1950-1954). These sleepers are fragile and show evidence offatigue, particularly at the fastening holes where cracks occur. RAN isplanning to replace these with steel sleepers at a rate of 20 km per year(11-year program). This is a traffic safety problem and should be begunimmediately; therefore the project includes 40 km of sleeper renewal (two-year program).
4.10 After ballasting of 34 km of track north of Banfora in Upper 3Volta, about 100 km of the line will still have the original 0.4 to 0.7 m /meter of sandstone ballast. RAN estimates that 50,000 m of ballast areneeded to complete tMe ballasting of the line in Upper Volta to the stan-dard volume of 0.8 m /meter, the minimum needed to avoid the lateral bucklingof a welded track. The volume of ballast on the section immediately north ofBobo-Dioulasso was not sufficient for the welded track and was well below thequantity stated on Chart 2. As this may cause track instability, the necessaryadditional ballasting of this section has been included in the project.
Track Maintenance Equipment
4.11 RAN needs to renew track maintenance equipment, namely, four gangcars, six light inspection cars and one heavy inspection car. Spare partsfor tamping machines are also provided for in the project. This equipmentis required ta replace obsolete equipment which is 10 to 20 years old.
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4.12 Additional track maintenance equipment will be needed to concentratethe track maintenance staff into larger operational units. This will resultin a reduction of 87 men out of a labor force of 657 (13.2%) with bettersupervision of track labor and, consequently, an increase in productivity.New equipment to be procured under the project consists of 2 gang cars,2 light inspection cars, 2 heavy inspection cars, 15 trailers, and 2 bull-dozers. Additionally, one sleeper pressing machine is included in the proj-ect for repair of damaged steel sleepers.
Rolling Stock
4.13 RAN's need for all types of rolling stock until 1980 has beenanalyzed. RAN needs 210 new box cars for delivery in 1978 to 1980 in orderto meet the expected traffic demand until 1980. This takes into account boththe renewal of obsolete rolling stock and the need for capacity increase, withexpected improvements of rolling stock productivity. Details are given inAnnex 8.
Motive Power
4.14 The project includes the procurement of 18 main-line locomotives.The required number has been determined taking into account: (i) the grad-ual withdrawal from long-distance service of 26 old locomotives to be usedfor shunting and service traffic and the agreed retirement of 5 locomotiveswhich are unreliable and too costly to maintain; (ii) the increase of averagetrain loads made possible by the realignment works and the improvement inoperations management; (iii) the improvement in the availability and utiliza-tion factors; and (iv) the traffic forecasts.
Training
4.15 The technical training component of the proposed project is vitalto the goals and the operational targets agreed upon by RAN and the Bank.Its aim is to improve staff productivity, operational efficiency and qualityof service by training, retraining and upgrading about 3,000 skilled workersand supervisors. It includes: (i) the expansion or construction of physicaltraining facilities in Abidjan, Bouake and Bobo-Diolasso; (ii) the purchaseof furniture and training equipment for these facilities; and (iii) therecruitment of three expatriate personnel totaling 50 man-months. The lattercomprises one senior training specialist to replace the head of the TrainingDivision (TD) who is expected to retire shortly, one chief instructor for theS&T Department, and one specialist to give pedagogical training for six newAfrican instructors whom RAN has agreed to provide. There are three Frenchtechnical assistants assigned to training on a full-time basis, excluding thehead of the TD, and this number should not be reduced until Africans trainedunder the project can take over. This would be reviewed annually (para.3.06). A description of the technical training component to be implementedby the TD and cost estimates are given in Table 3 and Annex 2.
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Consulting Services and Management Trainin&
4.16 A total of 177 man-months of consulting services are included inthe project for: (i) diagnosis of problems and preparation of a plan ofaction, 15 man-months; (ii) management training, 10 man-months; (iii) de-velopment of RAN's planning function by establishing a corporate planningunit and a centralized statistical service, 51 man-months (para. 3.10);(iv) establishment of an Organization and Methods division in the Opera-tions Department, 36 man-months; (v) improvement of management and organi-zation of RAN's administrative services, 10 man-months; (vi) 15 man-monthsfor complementary actions, part of which may be used for additional assis-tance to the Motive Pcwer and Rolling Stock Department and for re-organizingand improving management control of the Service des Wagon-Lits et Hotels deTourisme (SWLHT); and (vii) three feasibility studies, 40 man-months (para.4.01).
C. Financing Plan
4.17 Financing of the project is assured by contributions from the Gov-ernments and RAN to cover most local costs and by grants and long-term loansor credits from Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), IBRD andIDA. US$1.2 million of the IDA credit would be used to finance local costs inUpper Volta. The following table shows the allocation of funds to individualproject components:
(US$ million or equivalent)
Ivc UPVComponent Govt. Govt. RAN CIDA IBRD IDA Total
Realignment 4.2 -- 2.8 3.0 13.5 - 23.5
Track renewal in IVC 0.1 -- -- 0.2 1.4 - 1.7
Track rehabilitationin UPV -- 0.6 0.4 -- -- 5.2 6.2
Track maintenanceequipment - -- 1.8 - 1.8
Rolling stock -- -- 11.3 - 11.3
Locomotives -- -- -- 14.7 - -- 14.7
Training/consulting -- -- 0.7 -- 3.3 -- 4.0
Interest duringconstruction -- 3,0 - 3.0
Total 4.3 0.6 3.9 29.2 23.0 5.2 66.2
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4.18 The Ivorian and Voltaic Governments have agreed that they willpromptly provide the funds shown in the preceding table, in accordancewith RAN's Articles of Agreement. RAN's contribution of $3.9 million equi-valent is commensurate with the railway's financial position (c.f. Chapter 6).CIDA has agreed to contribute an amount of about $29 million to finance thelocomotives, freight cars and rails included in the project. The equivalentof about US$13 million from CIDA's funds will be given as a grant to UpperVolta. The rest, about US$16 million equivalent, will be lent on IDA-typeconditions to the Ivory Coast. All CIDA's funds will be on-lent to RAN atabout 4% interest with final maturities commensurate with the lifetime of theequipment financed by CIDA. Effectiveness of the CIDA financing agreementsand the on-lending agreements are a condition of effectiveness of the proposedBank loan and IDA credit.
4.19 The proposed Bank loan and IDA credit would be used for the rehabil-itation and upgrading of RAN's infrastructure, including the procurementof track maintenance equipment, for the urgent improvement of RAN's oper-ational and managerial effectiveness through staff training and technicalassistance, and for interest during construction. In the application of RAN'sArticles of Agreement (cf. para. 6.07) the IDA credit to the Government ofUpper Volta will be apportioned as follows: $3.1 million to be given to RANas a grant, and $2.1 million to be on-lent to RAN on terms and conditionsidentical to those of the Bank loan to RAN.
D. Project Execution, Procurement and Disbursement
4.20 RAN is competent to carry out and supervise the project which isexpected to start in the last quarter of 1977 and be completed early in 1980.
4.21 The Bank Group-financed items will be procured by internationalcompetitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group guidelines for a totalof US-$17.7 million, all contingencies included, with the exception of thespecific items listed below. The consulting services, technical assistanceand feasibility studies, for which consultants will be selected on terms andconditions acceptable to the Bank, amount to a total of US$2.6 million withall contingencies.
4.22 The following items will be procured through local competitivebidding in the Ivory Coast or Upper Volta, on terms and conditions whichare acceptable to the Bank: (i) ballast for Upper Volta (US$1.5 million);(ii) reinforcement of fills in Upper Volta (US$1.8 million); (iii) furni-ture and equipment for training (US$0.7 million) which, because of stan-dardization with existing equipment or the small quantities involved, wouldnot be suitable for ICB; and (iv) construction of training facilities (US$0.7million) too small to be suitable for ICB.
4.23 The following items will be purchased from the traditional sup-pliers of the railway to maintaîn standardization: (i) spare parts forexisting track maintenance equipment (US$0.3 million); and (ii) fastenings forsleepers of the type now in service (US$1.3 million). Negotiated purchasesshould not increase the cost of these items as compared with ICB.
4.24 CIDA-financed rolling stock, motive power and rails will be pro-cured from Canadian suppliers, who are competitive (US$29.2 million).
4.25 Production of ballast for the Ivory Coast, transport, supervisionof the works, track relaying and ballasting will be carried out by RAN's ownlabor force (US$7.4 million equivalent).
4.26 Disbursements from the Loan account representing the estimated for-eign cost of the various components will be on the following basis: (a) 100%of the c.i.f. cost of imported railway equipment and material; (b) 80% of thecost of the infrastructure, civil works and locally produced sleepers; (c) 60%of the cost of buildings and new ballast; (d) 20% of the cost of track layingand welding; (e) 50% of the transport cost of ballast and track material;(f) 72% of the cost of signalling and telecommunication works; (g) 25% of thegeotechnical studies and works supervision costs; (h) 56% of the cost of build-ings for training; (i) 100% of actual c.i.f. cost of imported furniture andequipment for training. If such items are imported but procured through localsuppliers, 75% of the total cost will be disbursed from the Loan account;(j) 80% of the total cost of technical assistance for training; and (k) 85%of the total cost of other consulting services.
4.27 Disbursement from the Credit account will represent 84% of the ex-penditures incurred for improvement of infrastructure in Upper Volta.
4.28 The estimated schedule of disbursements from the proposed Loan andCredit is shown in Table 4. Any funds remaining in the Loan and Creditaccounts upon completion of the project will be cancelled.
5. ECONOMIC EVALUATION
A. General
5.01 RAN's traffic is expected to increase between 1976 and 1980 byabout one-third. The project has been designed to enable RAN to efficientlycarry the larger volume of traffic by increasing the railway's capacity andreducing its operating cost per unit of traffic. The underlying rationalefor the entire project, however, is the fact that RAN is clearly the mosteconomic mode of transport for the region served by the railroad, namely,Upper Volta, southeastern Mali and fast-growing northern Ivory Coast. Thelack of relatively cheap rail transport would be an additional severe con-straint on the development of a large part of the poorly endowed Sahel.
5.02 Comparative economie road and rail transport costs, excluding inboth cases infrastructure capital costs, are as follows. For the road, theyare CFAF 15.4 per ton-km in 1976 prices, determined on the basis of a 1976consultants' study, whereas the corresponding costs of rail transport forRAN's average transport distance of about 600 km are CFAF 9.6, includingtransshipment costs of CFAF 0.8 per ton-km. Transporting by road the long-distance cargo typically carried by RAN would, therefore, increase transport
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costs by about CFAF 5.8 per ton-km or about 60%. The relatively inexpensiverail transport has a significant beneficial effect on the development of theregion served by the railway.
5.03 All the major physical components of the project have been eval-uated individually, and a large number of different types of benefits hasbeen quantified (Annex 12). Separate analyses have also been conductedto distinguish replacement items from those that will provide additionalcapacity. Shadow pricing has been used to value savings in labor in thoseinvestments whose main justification stems from reduction in railway staff.Shadow pricing has not been applied to construction costs and therefore therate of return obtained for investments involving civil works are slightlyunderestimated.
B. Realignment Bouake-Petionara
5.04 The evaluation of this investment has been divided in two parts:(a) the merits of rehabilitating the existing line are analyzed, and then(b) the justification of the incremental investment needed to improve thepresent alignment is evaluated.
5.05 By rehabilitating the track between Bouake and Petionara, RANwould avoid the economic consequences of an increase in the number of derail-ments and broken rails arising from the deteriorating track and a diversionof traffic to roads due to poor quality service. The economic rate of returnof a track renewal program is 18% assuming a useful life of 30 years.
5.06 The track realignment is designed to remove slope gradients inexcess of 10 mm/m, which will eliminate the need for double heading of heavytrains on the section, and to reduce the curvature of the line on the Bouake-Petionara stretch. The benefits of improving the alignment will be savingsin freight and passenger traction costs, reduction in locomotive needs and adecrease in track maintenance costs. The incremental investment, allowingfor improving the alignment rather than mere rehabilitation, will yield a 15%economic rate of return over a thirty-year period. The overall rate of returnfor the realignment component (i.e. comparing costs and benefits of the com-bined rehabilitation and realignment) is 17%.
C. Track Renewal and Rehabilitation in Upper Volta
5.07 This component is justified because it will virtually eliminate therisk of major interruptions in traffic caused by derailments and the collapseof the platform due to the poor condition of fills. The track renewal andrehabilitation works will allow removal of speed limitations now in effectand will restore traffic safety. As there is much passenger traffic, safetyis a vital element, and the permanent way should be brought back to a levelof quality sufficient to avoid casualties. However, considering only thebenefits from avoiding the direct cost of derailments and interruptions totraffic, the economic return on the renewal is 13%.
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D. Track Maintenance Equipment
5.08 RAN's plan to concentrate track maintenance works in larger opera-tional units will result in better supervision of workers, improved quality ofmaintenance and a substantial increase in labor productivity. As the benefitsof better maintenance of the permanent way are difficult to quantify, theanalysis has been limited to labor cost savings, evaluated at the appropriateshadow wage rate. Separate evaluations have been made for the part of theinvestment devoted to the renewal of old equipment and the part which willserve to continue RAN's reorganization of maintenance operations. Renewalequipment will permit RAN to sustain the level of staff reductions achievedin track maintenance during the last years. The rate of return of thisinvestment is 53%. Equipment to continue the mechanization plans, whilebringing about a comparatively lower savings in staff costs, also yields asatisfactory rate of return of 25%. The rate of return on the whole invest-ment in track maintenance equipment is 39%.
E. Freight Cars, Tank Cars and Locomotives
5.09 The 1977-82 investment program includes the acquisition of 340freight cars. The project incorporates the purchase of 210 freight cars,which will serve to renew obsolete equipment and provide RAN with enoughadditional capacity to satisfy the incremental forecast demand for railtransport to 1980. Should there be any delays or reductions in the in-vestment program, rail traffic would be reduced and the cargo transported byroad, which is less economic.
5.10 The project calls for the acquisition of 18 main-line locomotivescovering RAN's needs until 1980. It is estimated that about six of these
locomotives will to replace locomotives to be scrapped or withdrawn fromlong-distance service; the remaining 12 will provide the additional tractioncapacity needed for the new freight and tank cars.
5.11 The acquisition of locomotives and freight cars plus 40 tank carsto be purchased by the oil companies will permit RAN to provide enough capa-city to satisfy the traffic demand by 1980. If traffic materializes as fore-
cast, new equipment can be procured in time to cope with traffie demand for1981 and beyond. The aggregate rate of return for the rolling stock and
motive power investment is estimated at 28%, the rate of return on the freightcars and associated locomotives at 26%, the rate of return on the tank carsand locomotives at 30%, and the rate of return on locomotives purchased toreplace existing equipment at 36%.
F. Sensitivity Analysis
5.12 All the above components of the project have been separately sub-jected to sensitivity analysis under the following assumptions: (a) freighttraffic increase beyond the 1976 level only 50% of forecast; (b) rail transportcosts 10% higher than estimated, due to railway inefficiencies; (c) investmentcosts 10% higher than estimated (in addition to the physical contingenciesalready included, see para. 4.05). The simultaneous occurrence of theseconditions is highly improbable, but in such an event the following rates of
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return would result: 13% on the realignment Bouake-Tafire; 12% on trackrenewal and rehabilitation in Upper Volta; 35% on track maintenance equip-ment; and 21% on the procurement of locomotives and rolling stock. All theresulting minimum rates of return are satisfactory. The rates of return aregiven in Table 5.
G. Total Proiect
5.13 In addition to the benefits generated by individual project com-ponents as described, the project will produce substantial unquantifiedbenefits. In particular, it is expected that the training and technicalassistance components will make a major contribution toward improving theefficiency and quality of RAN's operations and management. On the basisof the quantified benefits, the overall economic return of the projectexcluding the training and consulting components is 23%.
6. FINANCIAL EVALUATION
A. Past and Present Position
6.01 RAN's operating revenue increased by 170% from 1970 to 1976, cor-responding to an annual growth rate of 18%. About one-third of this growthvas generated by a higher volume of traffic, and about two-thirds by tariffincreases. Tariffs, on the average, nearly doubled in this six-year period.Operating expenses, however, kept pace with the rapid growth of revenue, duemostly to inflationary cost increases. Staff costs per employee, for example,growing fairly regularly each year, increased virtually at the same rate asthe railway's tariffs. The net result is that RAN's working ratio fluctuatedconsiderably during the period and ended only slightly better than it began(84% vs. 86%).
6.02 RAN's income accounts and balance sheets for the period 1970 to1976 are given in Tables 6 and 7 and summarized below:
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(in CFAF Million)
1970 1973 1976
Income Accounts
Operating revenue 4061 6093 10943Working expenses 3486 4926 9194
Cash generated from operations 575 1167 1749Depreciation 696 998 1329
Net operating revenue (loss) (121) 169 420
Interest charges 64 198 775Government subsidies 233 290 809Net surplus 48 261 454
Working ratio 86% 81% 84%
Operating ratio 103% 97% 96%
Debt service 64 376 1157
Debt service coverage 9.Ox 3.1x 1.5x
Balance Sheets
Net fixed assets 15033 19472 30994
Net current assets 673 (303) 1350
Long-term debt 1127 3818 14570
Equity 14575 15521 20924
Current ratio 1.6 0.9 1.3
Liquid ratio 1.1 0.4 1.0
Debt/Equity ratio 7/93 20/80 41/59
6.03 Tariff increases have in general been timely and sufficiently high
to cope with inflationary cost increases. The most recent rate increases in
January and March 1977, averaging nearly 14% and expected to generate in 1977
additional revenue of about 12%, even exceed inflationary cost increases ex-
pected for 1977. Firm conclusions on the adequacy of the tariff structurewill be possible once RAN's costing system is operational (paras. 3.08 and
6.04). Present knowledge indicates that the bulk of RAN's cash generationstems from passenger traffic and a few commodities such as petroleum prod-ucts and general cargo. All tariffs appear to cover at least marginal costs.
RAN has authority to conclude contracts including special rate arrangementswith large customers and generally makes adequate use of this facility. Com-
parisons of road vs. rail transport cost (Annex 6) indicate that RAN has asignificant coast advantage over road competition for long hauls and even for
relatively short hauls when rail transport does not necessitate additionalcosts for transshipment and on-carriage by road.
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6.04 Since the railway calculated its depreciation allowances in earlieryears as an appropriation to a renewal fund, they have been recalculatedfor this report on an accrual basis. For the past two years RAN has cal-culated its depreciation accounts on a commercial basis at realistic rates.In 1976 depreciation amounted to 3.7% of the book value of average grossfixed assets in service. Assets, however, are for the most part valuedat acquisition cost, and only small items have recently been revalued atreplacement cost. RAN's consultants, Etudes et Organisation, France, haveproposed using replacement values to be updated annually as a basis forcalculating depreciation. The railway agreed with the consultants' proposallimiting the use of replacement values, at least for an initial trial period,in the cost accounting system now being introduced. A revaluation of assetsat replacement cost is underway. RAN's proposal is acceptable to the Bank asthe forthcoming cost accounting system will be RAN's major management instru-ment for cost control, tariff setting, and to a lesser extent, investmentplanning. RAN's proposal will be implemented by June 30, 1978, with a viewto possibly generalizing at a later stage the use of replacement costs inRAN's accounting system including its balance sheets and income statements.
6.05 RAN's interest and debt service charges were very small until1971 and grew rapidly thereafter due to an increase of the volume of invest-ment, accompanied by only a small increase in cash generation from operations.Therefore, borrowing increased at a much more rapid pace than before at partlymedium-soft and partly rather severe commercial-type terms with final matu-rities after 8 to 10 years. RAN's financial position, which was acceptableuntil about 1972 in the context of comparatively amall volumes of borrowingand investment, deteriorated thereafter as indicated by a reduction of thedebt service coverage ratio from 10.4 in 1972 to 1.5 in 1976. Concurrently,net current assets were drawn down, accompanied by the use of bank overdraftfacilities of about CFAF 1.5 billion at the end of 1976. Delayed paymentsof Government contributions (para. 6.07) and prefinancing of investments onlong-term borrowings also strained the railway's liquidity.
6.06 Investment has concentrated on necessary renewal and upgradingof existing infrastructure and on procurement of rolling stock and motivepower. Attention has focussed on equipment for passenger service and some-what neglected freight traffic requirements. Since additional infrastructurerenewal and upgrading are necessary and substantial amounts of funds arealso needed to modernize and increase freight transport capacity, RAN'sinvestment volume will remain high until at least 1979. Financing of RAN'sbasically sound investment program for 1977-1982 can, however, only remainfinancially sound if RAN's cash generation from operations is massivelyincreased and if the railway's debt structure is improved through arrangingfuture loans on terms involving longer grace and repayment periods. Theanalysis of RAN's future financial situation will concentrate on these issues.
6.07 RAN's Articles of Agreement stipulate that the respective Govern-ments will pay the entire cost of additions to infrastructure, such as newlines, and that they will also (Article 12) contribute towards the costsincurred by RAN for maintenance, renewal and reconstruction of track, specialworks, signalling and telecommunications. The latter contributions amount
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to 60% of the costs incurred by RAN for the above purposes, each countryhaving to contribute only to costs incurred on its territory. That part ofthe contributions corresponding to 60% of RAN's current maintenance costsfor ways and works is considered by the railway as a part of its operatingrevenue. It is shown in this report as a non-operating subsidy-type revenueto produce a more realistic analysis. The contributions to RAN's cost forcapital investment in additional infrastructure, renewal and reconstruction ofinfrastructure have until recently been considered by the railway as a sourceof equity capital and the tables on past and forecast balance sheets containedin this report use this procedure, which is adequate. RAN, however, adoptedfor its 1975 balance sheet a new procedure which eliminates these types ofcontributions from both net assets and equity through deducting them fromgross assets. This divergence in balance-sheet presentation from appropriateaccounting principles tends to produce a serious discrepancy between theamounts of assets and equity shown in RAN's books and the amounts actuallyinvested in the railway. RAN agreed to remedy this situation by submittingto the Bank by March 1978 a report prepared by its auditors proposing adequatesolutions to the above problem and, thereafter, implementing the auditors'recommendations.
B. Future Financial Position
6.08 RAN's future financial position and the scope for management actionto improve it are constrained by a number of parameters, including: ratherstrong road competition, the expected difficulty in achieving rapid productiv-ity increases once some apparent overstaffing is absorbed, the need for rela-tively heavy capital investment to maintain the railway's competitiveness, andthe scarcity of concessional funds, leading in the past to an increasing useof commercial borrowing. The Bank and the railway have discussed and agreedupon the basic elements of a corporate plan which maintains RAN's financialviability and deals adequately with the above constraints.
6.09 Road transport competition has been dealt with earlier in thereport. Financially, the most relevant fact is that the ability of RAN toincrease tariffs in excess of inflationary cost increases is uncertain andmay be quite limited. The exact limits are not known and, due to the complexnature of rail/road competition in the region served by the railway, cannotbe known with a sufficient degree of reliability. As excessive railwaytariff increases might jeopardize the demand for rail transport, a ratherprudent approach has been agreed upon. It consists in rate increases tooffset inflationary cost increases estimated at 8% p.a. and, additionally,to generate cumulative revenue increases in constant prices of about 18% inthree steps of about 4% in 1977 and about 6.5% in each of the years 1978 and1979. Thereafter, rate increases will suffice to maintain a working ratio of73% (para. 6.12). Rate increases for 1977 commensurate with the above policyhave been implemented.
6.10 RAN's future working expenses are largely a function of staff costsand, more precisely, the total number of staff, as the railway's influence oncosts per man employed is presently small due to a well-established system offairly automatic cost-of-living, merit and seniority increases. Agreements
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reached to limit increases in staff numbers have been spelled out in para.3.05. Future working expenses are further determined by timely and successfulimplementation of the operational plan of action discussed earlier in thisreport.
6.11 There is little scope to reduce further the investment program forthe period 1977-1982 without jeopardizing RAN's competiveness and its capacityneeds, bearing in mind that implementation of several projects will be subjectto the findings of studies included in the proposed project (para. 4.02).There is, however, a need to ensure that the terms and conditions of RAN'sborrowing are satisfactory and that its debt service coverage is maintained atan acceptable level. Agreement was therefore reached during negotiations ona debt limitation based on a minimum debt service coverage of 1.5 from 1977onwards.
6.12 Assuming that the actions outlined above are implemented as plannedand traffic materializes as foreseen in Chapter 3, RAN's forecast incomeaccounts and balance sheets should develop as indicated in Tables 8 and 9 andsummarized below (cf. Annex 12 for assumptions used).
…--------…(in CFAF Million)----------1976 1978 1979 1982
Income Accounts
Operating revenue 10943 17005 20690 31960Working expenses 10523 15109 17333 26428Cash generation from operations 1749 3816 5567 8652Depreciation 1329 1920 2210 3120Net operating revenue 420 1896 3357 5532Interest charges 775 1519 1477 2012Government subsidies 809 926 1030 523Net surplus (loss) 454 1303 2910 4043
Working ratio 84% 78% 73% 73%Operating ratio 96% 89% 84% 83%Debt service 1157 2125 2670 4216Debt service coverage 1.5x 1.8x 2.1x 2.1x
Balance Sheets
Net fixed assets 30994 48816 53935 67162Net current assets 1350 2846 5590 6210Long term debt 14570 27160 29595 31603Equity 20924 30462 36940 49369
Current ratio 1.3 1.6 2.6 2.3Liquid ratio 1.0 1.2 1.9 1.6Debt/equity ratio 41/59 47/53 44/56 39/61
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6.13 The above figures indicate a rapid improvement of RAN's financialposition by 1978, and achievement of a satisfactory earning situation by1979. Successful implementation of the strategy outlined in the precedingparagraphs (6.08-6.11) would be reflected in attainment of the working ratiosincluded in the above table. Agreement was reached that RAN will (i) takeall measures necessary to ensure that its working ratio will not exceed 78%in 1978 and 75% thereafter; and (ii) use for planning purposes after 1978a working ratio not exceeding 73%. Achievement of this target would besatisfactory to the Bank, bearing in mind that an in-depth analysis of RAN'slong-term goals and financial targets will be conducted during the next fewyears (para. 6.14).
6.14 The above table assumes, with regard to Government contributions,that: (i) the Governments will pay to RAN, mostly in 1978, the amounts whichthey owe the railway for maintenance and renewal works executed in earlieryears and estimated at CFAF 3.6 billion as of end-1977; (ii) from 1977 on-wards (1978 for Upper Volta) the Governments will pay their contributionsfor maintenance and renewal by June of the following year; (iii) the costof additional infrastructure will be reimbursed to RAN pari passu with theexpenses incurred by the railway; and (iv) in 1979 the contribution systemwill be renegotiated between the Governments and RAN with a view to substan-tially reducing or even eliminating contribution payments. A reduction bytwo-thirds, from 1980 onwards has been assumed (cf. Annex 12). The measuresunder (i), (ii), and (iii) above are needed to remedy RAN's present cashshortages due inter alia to a lack of sufficiently rigorous control overRAN's financial management by its Board of Directors, regarding in particularthe financing of capital investments with short-term borrowings. Theirimplementation was agreed upon at negotiations. Concerning (iv), it wasagreed that discussions between RAN and the Governments on the appropriatelevel of government contributions will be concluded by the end of 1979, inconsultation with the Bank. The financial forecasts show that a reductionof contributions may be possible at that time. Moreover, the reduction maybe justified by the findings of the transport user-charge study mentioned inpara. 2.08. This study, which will be finalized by March 1979, and the workof RAN's own planning unit implemented under the proposed project will forman adequate basis to determine more precisely RAN's long-term goals andfinancial targets.
6.15 The debt-service coverage does not drop below 1.8 after 1977,which is satisfactory, and the debt/equity ratio reaches its peak of 48/52in 1978, which is acceptable. A statement of sources and application offunds for the period 1977-1982 is shown in Table 10, and the assumptionsused are spelled out in Annex 12. The following is a summary for the proj-ect period (1977-1980):
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(CFAF billion) (%)Sources:
Cash generated from operations 18.1 36Long-term borrowing 19.6 39Government contributions 12.6 25
Total Funds Available 50.3 100
Applications:
Capital investment 35.0 70Debt service 10.4 21Increase of cash minus decrease ofreceivables from Governments 3.2 6
Increase of other working capital 1.7 3Total Funds Applied 50.3 100
6.16 During the project period, capital investment is expected to befinanced 56% through borrowing, 27% through Government contributions, whichwill additionally finance RAN's cash increase back to a normal level, and 17%through RAN's cash generation from operation after deducting from the latterinterest and debt amortization payments and the increase in working capital.RAN's cash generation will thus be sufficient to ensure that the railway canfinance its contribution to the cost of the proposed project and to otherinvestment.
C. Sensitivity Analysis
6.17 The above description of RAN's future financial position is con-sidered to be realistic and achievable. There are, however, two major risks,namely: a shortfall in expected freight traffic volumes, caused mainly byRAN's lower than expected efficiency, and increases of operating costs, inparticular staff costs, in excess of the forecasts. Assuming in 1980 thatfor these two parameters the sensitivity assumptions made in the economicanalysis (para. 5.12) materialize simultaneously, RAN's cash generationfrom operations would be reduced by about CFAF 3.6 billion in this year, andthe railway would cover only 90% of its debt service through cash generatedfrom operations, thus necessitating subsidies. The above sensitivity assump-tions are, however, rather severe, and there would probably be scope forremedial action to at least partially offset detrimental developments. Suchaction would be determined in consultation with the Bank. There remains,nevertheless, a risk of a cash shortfall, in particular if contributionpayments were severely reduced. The Governments agreed to provide additionalsubsidies or such other financial support for RAN as may be appropriate toprotect the railway's cash position should the need arise.
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7. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION
7.01 Agreement has been reached on the following principal items:
(i) with the Ivorian and/or Voltaic Governments:
(a) the planning and research unit presently being set upin the Ivorian Ministry of Transport and Public Workswill undertake a study to be completed by March 1979,on terms satisfactory to the Bank, to: (i) analyze thepossible extent of uneconomic distortions of the modalallocation of freight traffic between rail and road dueto the Governments' subsidization and rate setting forboth modes, and (ii) recommend remedial action; theVoltaic Ministry of Transport will participate in thisstudy (para. 2.08);
(b) promptly upon completion of the studies on the projectslisted in para. 4.01(v), the Ivorian Government willconsult with the Bank and the railway on the solutionsto be adopted and their timing (para. 4.02);
(c) the Governments will promptly provide their con-tribution to project financing (para. 4.18);
(d) the Ivory Coast will pay to RAN:
(i) by April 1978 the amounts shown in RAN's 1976balance sheet as receivable from the Ivory Coast;
(ii) from 1977 onwards by June of the following yearthe Ivory Coast's share of RAN's cost of main-tenance and renewal of ways and works; and
(iii) promptly upon their incurrence, RAN's costs forextension of its infrastructure in the Ivory Coast(para. 6.14);
(e) Upper Volta will pay to RAN:
(i) by December 1979 the amounts shown in RAN's 1977balance sheet as receivable from Upper Volta;
(ii) from 1978 onwards by June of the following yearUpper Volta's share of RAN's cost of maintenanceand renewal of ways and works; and
(iii) promptly upon their incurrence, RAN's costs forextension of its infrastructure in Upper Volta(para. 6.14);
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(f) by December 1979 the Governments and RAN will review withthe Bank the present system of contributions with a viewto making appropriate adjustments (para. 6.14); and
(g) the Governnents will provide subsidies or such otherfinancial support for RAN as may be appropriate toprotect the railway's cash position should the needarise (para. 6.16).
(ïi) with RAN:
(a) the railway will make every effort to maintain throughend-1978 a maximum staff, excluding temporary staff forforce account works, of 5,200 with necessary additionalmanpower in somie departments being offset by reductionin others (para. 3.05);
(b) RAN will submit by June 1978 a draft five-year manpowerplan covering the period 1978 to 1982 (para. 3.05);
(c) RAN will consult annually with the Bank on the rail-way's expected technical assistance requirements andon measures necessary to meet them (para. 3.06);
(d) RAN's proposed operational and investment budgets willbe submitted to the Bank for review at least 30 daysbefore the date scheduled for consideration by RAN'sBoard, but in any event not later than November 30 ofthe year preceeding the fiscal year covered by thebudgets. The same applies mutatis mutandis to anyamendments proposed to be made during the year to theinvestment budget (para. 3.09);
(e) from 1977 onwards RAN's accounts will be audited byqualified, independent auditors in accordance withgenerally accepted auditing principles (para. 3.11);
(f) the operational plan of action including, inter alia,freight traffic targets (Annex 4) has been incor-porated in the proposed Loan Agreement (para. 3.15);
(g) promptly upon completion of the respective studies, RANwill consult with the Bank on the solutions to be adoptedand their timing for the projects listed in para. 4.01(v);and RAN will not begin to implement nor incur any debt forthese projects before such consultations (para. 4.02);
(h) RAN's 5-year investment plan will be updated annuallyand extended by one year. The draft of the updatedplan will be submitted for review to the Bank (para.4.03);
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(i) RAN's existing line between Bouake and Petionarawill be abandoned, with reusable material beingsalvaged, after completion of the new line (para.4.06);
(j) RAN will discontinue using the existing 5 locomo-tives of the type CC2400 in regular main-lineoperations not later than at final delivery ofthe locomotives included in the project, exceptfor emergencies (para. 4.14);
(k) RAN will make available a sufficient number of ex-perienced African technicians in order to have sixtrained instructors and will ensure that adequatenumbers of personnel are released from operationaldepartments for training (para. 4.15);
(1) RAN will determine by June 30, 1978, and thereafterannually update, the replacement values of itsassets. The resulting asset valuations will beused in RAN's accounting system, at least for thepurpose of cost accounting (para. 6.04);
(m) RAN will by March 1978 submit to the Bank a report,prepared by its auditors or other qualified experts,recommending adequate action to maintain appropriateaccounting principles in RAN's balance sheet presen-tation; RAN will subsequently implement the auditors'recommendations (para. 6.07);
(n) RAN will from 1977 onwards not incur any debt ifits debt service coverage ratio does not exceed1.5, except if the Bank otherwise agrees (para.6.11); and
(o) RAN will (i) take necessary measures, including butnot limited to rate increases, to achieve workingratios of not more than 78% in 1978 and 75% there-after; and (ii) use for planning purposes after 1978a working ratio not exceeding 73% (para. 6.13).
7.02 Section 6.07 of the "Contrat de Financement" dated April 19, 1974between the European Community, EIB and RAN requires RAN to obtain EIB'sagreement before incurring any medium- or long-term debt. EIB has agreedto the Bank loan and IDA credit.
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7.03 Effectiveness of financing and on-lending agreements to be con-cluded between the Governments, RAN and CIDA will be a condition of effec-tiveness of the proposed loan and credit (para. 4.18). Conclusion of anonlending agreement for the proposed IDA credit between Upper Volta and RAN,on terms and conditions spelled out in para. 4.19, will be an additionalcondition of effectiveness for the proposed loan and credit.
7.04 The proposed project is suitable for an IDA credit of US$5.2 millionto the Government of Upper Volta and a Bank loan of US$23 million to RAN withthe Government of the Ivory Coast as a guarantor for a period of 17 years,including a grace period of 4 years. The Government of Upper Volta wouldguarantee jointly and severally with the Ivory Coast a portion of the loan,amounting to about US$6 million and corresponding to items which are notexclusively located in the Ivory Coast.
September 1977
TABLE 1
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA page 1
REGIE ABIDJAN-NIGER (R.A.N.)
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Suismary of OPerating Statistics 1970-1976 1/
1970 1971, 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 2/
A. Traffict
Number of passengers (1000) 2,564 2,630 2,595 2,827 2,931 3,006 3,254
Passenger-kilometers (Millions) 625 700 777 883 918 945 1,040
Freight tonnage (1000 T) 748 794 866 955 787 717 866
Ton-kilometers (Millions) 402 447 479 552 527 442 558
Traffic units (Tskm + Pass.-km -Millions) 1,027 1,147 1,256 1,435 1,445 1,387 1,598
Gross Ton-kilometers (1000 G.T.km)- Express trains 136,155 163,152 155,302 180,795 191,455 209,622 226,701
- Railcars 196,476 188,572 185,350 187,016 196,644 208,411 251,847
- Freight trains 870,259 914,121 974,692 1,095,168 1,053,455 927,709 1,051,062
- Service trains and others 12.319 15.262 26.920 16 789 17.425 32,302 29,287
Total Gross T.km 1,215,269 1,281,107 1,342,264 1,479,768 1,458,979 1,378,044 1,558,-897
B. Onerations
(1) Train-kilometers (1000 km)- Express trains 640 616 757 876 868 869 880
- Railcars 1,678 1,772 1,755 1,930 2,108 2,186 2,429
- Freight trains 1,668 1,744 1,829 2,229 2,234 2,022 2,240
- Service trains and others 142 238 248 136 76 73 77
Total Tr.km 4,128 4,370 4,589 5,171 5,286 5,150 5,626
(2) Motive pover mileage (km)- -Maànliue locomotives
CC 1000 1,471,497 1,498,773 1,398,314 1,446,918 1,505,504 1,279,783 798,342
Cc 1500 842,752 903,754 809,973 729,595 592,119 519,994 505,534
CC 2400 465,332 516,273 398,866 447,734 360,448 259,175 145,044
B-BB 1800 - 3.338 562.672 770.812 720.580 887.257 1.733.373
Total mainline locomotives 2,779,491 2,922,138 3,169,825 3,395,059 3,178,651 2,946,209 3,182,293
- Shunters 348,625 407,023 429,167 442,722 488,293 466,207 487,990
- Railcars
ZE 130-160 1,677,673 1,771,595 1,755,199 1,930,026 2,108,313 2,180,731 1,719,352
ZE 200 - - - - - 3.585 523.543
Total railcars 1,677,673 1,771,595 1,755,199 1,930,026 2,108,313 2,184,316 2,242,895
(3) Rolling stock mileage (km)- Freight cars
Cattle 18,865,697 6,395,366 7,302,607 6,436,248 6,288,397 5,783,231 3,998,787
Box cars 18,65, 13,676,216 13,507,173 14,593,878 14,258,202 13,585,911 13,682,601
Groupage cars 2,570,139 2,157,614 1,848,843 3,375,384 3,576,450 2,583,600 2,392,040
Gondolas 712,052 676,982 1,244,975 2,283,150 2,230,807 1,880,453 3,064,047
Flat cars 3,578,923 2,689,436 4,079,551 3,455,101 3,096,786 2,745,229 3,463,419
Service cars 676,997 758,012 1,397,470 852,005 832,401 1,639,318 1,639,323
Privately owned cars 5.695,636 6.036.098 6,126.144 6.769.934 6.614.200 5.902.864 6.460.806
Total freight cars 32,099,444 32,389,724 35,499,763 37,765,700 36,897,243 34,120,656 34,701,023
Ratio loaded car mileage 0.7 0.7 0,7 0,7 0,7 0.7
total mileage *°
- Passenger coacheslIst classa ) 484,368 229,160 362,875 362,875 844,559 824,693
. Sleeping cars ( 1,426,922 572,898 571,980 706,391 839,604 1,313,087 1,413.054
Dining cars ) 355.298 349,844 358,473 - 419,802 617,576 746,697
2nd class 2,132,009 2,472.141 1,091,170 1,778,620 1.394,752 5,335,804 5,748,617
Baggage vans 998,247 1,014,372 941,276 1,373,621 1,674,620 1,321,596 1,434,793
Trailers 7.092.502 7.010.374 8.819.536 8.860,103 9.464.575 7,030,779 7.200.590
Total passenger coaches andBaggage vans 11,649,680 11,909,451 11,993,966 13,440,083 14,156,228 16,463,401 17,368,444
1/ Source: RAN's Operations Department except othervise specified.
2/ Source: RAN's provisional statistics for 1976.
TABLE
Page 2
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
(4) Motive power fleet (as of December 31)- Mainline locomotives
CC 1000 20 20 20 20 20 18 17
CC 1500 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Cc 2400 6 6 6 6 5 5 5
B-BB 1800 0 2 6 6 8 10 17
Total 34 36 40 40 41 41 47
- Shonters (Total) 20 23 23 24 29 29 29
- RailcarsZE 130-160 15 18 18 18 17 17 16
ZE 200 0 O 0 O 1 _0
Total 15 18 18 18 17 18 26
(5) Rolling stock (as of December 31;September 30 for 1976)
- Freight cars ilCattle ad box cars 634 627 621 689 692 690 673
Groupage cars 8 8 10 10 14 12
G.Gondolas 97 134 188 186 188 209 209
Plat cars 254 254 203 204 187 191 192
. Service cars 47 61 66 63 73 102 96
- Privately owned 74 85 88 93 99 115 115
Passenger vehiclesP .. clans 15 15 15 15 13 22 21
2nd class 84 91 94 104 103 103 143
B aaggage vans 8 8 10 10 14 12 12
(6) Productivity- Passenger-km per km (1000) 545 611 677 769 800 824 907
Ton-kilometer per km (1000) 343 381 408 471 449 385 475
Average daily mileage of freight cars 61.5 63.7 78.9 86.5 79.1 59.9 66.9
Average 1oad per Ioaded freight cars 16.1 17.3 18.0 19.1 18.5 19.8 20.8
Annual total number of freight cars loaded 46,569 45,891 47,839 50,001 42,578 35,281 40,951
Net ton-kîlometers per train-km (frelght) 241 256 261 247 235 218 241
Gross ton-kilometers per train-km (freight) 521 524 532 491 471 459 470
Gross ton-kilometers per express train-km 212 264 205 206 220 241 258
- Gross ton-kilometers per railcar-km 117 106 105 96 93 95 104
Average monthly mlleage of the motive power. Cc 1000 6,131 6,245 5,826 6,029 6,272 5,462 3,913
CC 1500 8,779 9,414 8,437 7,600 6,166 5,417 5,265
CC 2400 6,463 7,170 5,540 6,619 6,074 4,320 2,417
B-BB 1800 -- 834 11,483 10,706 7,506 7,394 8,496
Railcars 9,320 8,202 8,126 8,935 9,760 10,689 13,318
- Availabi.ity of motive pover (7.) 2/cC 1000 90.5 80.2 95.0 78.1 87.0 77.8 65
Cc 1500 84.8 82.9 80.7 76.2 44.4 62.5 75
CC 2400 72.3 76.6 61.3 55.2 68.5 20.0 20
B-BB 1800 -- 86.3 92.3 63.2 79.4 58.8 59
- Availability of rolling stock (%)Freight cars
Cattle and nom cars 94 95 97 98 94 93 N.A.
Gondolas 98 98 98 96 97 93 N.A.
Flatcars 97 96 96 99 98 89 N.A.
Service cars 98 97 96 100 98 71.5 N.A.
Tank cars 96 98 100 100 97 98 N.A.
1/ Does not include the leased cars (20 tank cars, 5 box cars and 2 flat cars as of the end nf September 1976).
2/ Source: RAN's annual reports for 1970-1974; MT Department for 1975; RAN's provissonal statistics for 1976.
TABLE 1page 3
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
- Turnaround time f freight cars V
. Cattle cars -- -- -- 10.1 13.4 16.2 N.A.
. Box cars -- -- -- 10.1 13.9 16.6 N.A.
. Tank cars -- -- -- 1.0 14.7 15.2 N.A.
- Average train delays (<inotes)* Passenger trains N.A. N.A. N,A. N.A. N.A. 31 27 1/
* Freight trains N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 294 231 1/
C. Personnel
Noober of staff 2/ 4,075 4,150 4,350 4,472 4,500 4,821 4,848
Traffic onits p-r permanent emplsyse(1000 T.U.) 252 276 289 321 321 288 330
Technical assistance 3/ 68 80 79 75 72 71 70
Instructor/trainees 19/48 19/43 19/42 19/55 19/50 20/83 24/130 1/
1/ Statistios ot available. The figures have been estic,ted by Bank's mission on the basis of data collected in the field.
2/ Temporary staff for operations excloded.
3/ Includes all expatriates (technical assistance, military and Compagnie Internationale des Wagons-Lits).
Augost 1977
Table 2page 1
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA - REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Total Project Cost(January 1977 Prices)
CFAF Million US$ Million 1V
Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total
(a) Realignment of the Bouaké-Petionara Section- Project preparation 3 - 3 0.01 - 0.01- Infrastructure (mainline) 277 1110 1387 1.13 4.53 5.66- Infrastructure (stations) 26 103 129 0.11 0.42 0.53- Rails - 601 601 - 2.45 2.45- Other track material 78 610 688 0.32 2.49 2.81- Ballast 166 250 416 0.68 1.02 1.70- Track laying & welding 430 107 537 1.76 0.44 2.20- Transport 37 37 74 0.15 0.15 0.30- Signalling & telecommunications 38 99 137 0.16 0.40 0.56- Station buildings & houses 98 147 245 0.40 0.60 1.00- Geotechnical survey &
works supervision 104 35 139 0.42 0.14 0.56
Sub-total 1257 3099 4356 5.14 12.64 17.78
(b) Track renewal in the IvoryCoast (mainline & turnouts)- Rails - 26 26 - 0.10 0.10- Other track material - 36 36 - 0.15 0.15- Track laying & welding 15 4 19 0.06 0.02 0.08- Turnouts & spares - 270 270 - 1.10 1.10
Sub-total 15 336 351 0.06 1.37 1.43
(c) Track improvement inUpper Volta- Sleepers renewal (40 km) 48 362 410 0.20 1.48 1.68- Reinforcement of fills
(180,000 m3) 66 262 328 0.27 1.07 1.34- Ballasting (50,000 m3) 284 157 441 1.16 0.64 1.80
Sub-total 398 781 1179 1.63 3.19 4.82
1/ Exchange rate: US$1.0 = CFAF 245.
Table 2Page 2
CFAF Million US$ Million
Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total
(d) Track maintenanceequipment - 369 369 - 1.51 S51
(e) 210 box cars - 2317 2317 - 9.46 9.46
(f) 18 main-line locomotives - 3038 3038 - 12.40 12.40
(g) Training 68 260 328 0.28 1.06 1.34
(h) Consulting services(137 man-months) 45 251 296 0.18 1.03 1.21
(i) Feasibility studies(40 man-months) 13 73 86 0.05 0.30 0.35
Total base cost(end-1976) 1796 10524 12320 7.34 42.96 50.30
(j) Physical contingencies 178 347 525 0.73 1.42 2.15
Total with physicalcontingencies 1974 10871 12845 8.07 44.38 52.45
(k) Price Contingencies 468 2153 2621 1.91 8.79 10.70
Total with allcontingencies 2442 13024 15466 9.98 53.17 63.15
Notes:
1. Physical contingencies: 2. Price contingencies:
- Civil works: 10%- Track material : 2% Equipment Civil Works ConsultirE
(2% of additional material is Service<
included in the quantities to beordered for possible damaged or lost 1977-79: 7.5Xe 92 9?material during transportationor trans-shipments) 1980-85: 7 Z 8/e 8%
- Motive power, rolling stock,track maintenance equipment: nil
- Other equipment: 10%- Consulting services: 15%- Other services : 10%
Table 2Page 3
Total Project Cost Summary
(including contingencies)
CFAF Million US$ Million
Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total
(a) Realignment of the Bouaké-Petionara section 1706 4049 5755 7.0 16.5 23.5
(b) Renewal of track materialin the Ivory Coast 20 386 406 0.1 1.6 1.7
(c) Improvement of track infra-structure and superstructurein Upper Volta 544 986 1530 2.2 4.0 6.2
(d) Track maintenance equipment - 434 434 - 1.8 1.8
(e) 210 box cars - 2757 2757 11.3 11.3
(f) 18 locomotives - 3614 3614 - 14.7 14.7
(g) Training (including 50 man-months for technical assistance) 93 355 448 0.4 1.4 1.8
(h) Consulting services 62 347 409 0.2 1.5 1.7
(i) Feasibility studies 17 96 113 0.1 0.4 0.5
2442 13024 15466 10.0 53.2 63.2
Summary of Project Cost
(US$ Million)
Base Cost Cost with Physical Contingencies Cost with All Contingencies
Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total
(a) Realignment of the Bouaké-Petionara section
- Rails - 2.4 2.4 - 2.5 2.5 - 3.0 3.0
- Other track material 0.3 2.5 2.8 0.3 2.6 2.9 0.4 3.0 3.4
- Works & miscellaneous 4.9 7.7 12.6 5.4 8.4 13.8 6.6 10.5 17.1
Sub-total 5.2 12.6 17.8 5.7 13.5 19.2 7.0 16.5 23.5
(b) Track renewal in theIvory Coast (mainline &turnouts)
- Rails - 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 0.2
- Others 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.1 1.4 1.5
Sub-total 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.1 1.6 1.7
(c) Track improvement in
Upper Volta 1.6 3.2 4.8 1.8 3.4 5.2 2.2 4.0 6.2
(d) Track maintenance equipment - 1.5 1.5 - 1.5 1.5 - 1.8 1.8
(e) 210 box cars - 9.5 9.5 - 9.5 9.5 - 11.3 11.3
(f) 18 main-line locomotives - 12.4 12.4 - 12.4 12.4 - 14.7 14.7
(g) Training 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.4 1.4 1.8 >
(h) Consulting services 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.2 1.5 1.7
(i) Feasibility studies - 0.3 0.3 - 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.5
7.4 42.9 50.3 8.1 44.4 52.5 10.0 53.2 63.2
TABLE 3
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Training - Cost Estimates
CFAF Million US$ (000)Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total
(1) Buildings
Construction and expansion of physicaltrainîng facilltiteR at?ta) Abidjan 18.2 22.8 41.0 74.2 93.1 167.3(b) Bouake 21.4 26.9 48.3 87.5 109.7 197.2(c) Bobo-Dioulasso 13.3 16.7 30.0 54.3 68.1 122.4
Sub-total civil works 52.9 66.4 119.3 216.0 270.9 486.9
(2) Furniture(a) Abidjan - 4.8 4.8 - 19.6 19.6(b) Bouake - 5.0 5.0 - 20.4 20.4(c) Bobo-Dioulasso - 4.6 4.6 - 18.8 18.8
Sub-total furniture - 14.4 14.4 - 58.8 58.8
(3) Training Equipment(a) Abidjan - 113.8 113.8 - 464.5 464.5(b) Bouake - 2.3 2.3 - 9.4 9.4(c) Bobo-Dioulasso - 2.3 2.3 - 9.4 9.4
Sub-total equipment - 118.4 118.4 - 483.3 483.3
(4) Technical assistance 15.1 60.8 75.9 62 248 310.0(50 man-months)
Grand Total 68 260 328 278 1061 1339.
Physical contingencies (10%) 7 26 33 28 106 134
Total with physical contingencies 75 286 361 306 1167 1473
Price contingencies (24%) 18 69 87 73 280 353
Total with all contingencies 93 355 448 379 1447 1826
TABLE 4
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Estimated Schedule of Disbursements
(US$ Million)IBRD/IDA Fiscal Yearand Quarter Ending IBRD IDA
1977-1978
December 31, 1977 4.3March 31, 1978 6.0 1.4June 30, 1978 8.4 2.8
1978-1979
September 30, 1978 10.6 3.4December 31, 1978 13.3 4.0March 31, 1979 15.8 4.2June 30, 1980 17.3 4.4
1979-1980
September 30, 1979 18.8 4.6December 31, 1979 19.3 4.8March 31, 1980 21.1 5.2June 30, 1980 21.5
1980-1981
September 30, 1980 21.8December 31, 1980 23.0
Table 5
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
Regional Railway Project
Summary Rates of Return (in %)
Higher Higher Lower CombinationNormal Invest. Rail Freight ofCase Costs Operat- Traf- Sensitivity
ing fic AnalysesCosts Growth
(1) Rehabilitation 18 17 17 15 13
(2) Realignment 15 13 15 1/ il 10
(3) Combined Rehabilitation & 17 16 17 14 13Realignment
(4) Line Improvement Upper 13 12 12 13 2/ 12Volta
(5) Maintenance Equipment - 53 49 53 3/ 53 3/ 49Renewal Only
(6) Incremental Maintenance 25 22 25 4/ 25 4/ 22Equipment
(7) Total Maintenance 39 35 39 4/ 39 4/ 35Equipment
(8) Freight Cars & Locomotives 26 24 23 24 20
(9) Tank Cars & Locomotives 30 28 26 19 15
(10) Locomotives 36 33 32 36 3/ 30
(11) Rolling Stock & Locomo- 28 26 26 25 21tives (8), (9), & (10)
(12) Whole Project 23 21 21 20 17
1/ Not sensitive to higher rail operating cost, since no benefits fromdiversion to road have been assumed.
2/ Not sensitive to lower freight traffic growth, since analysis is based on
1976 traffic volume.3/ Not sensitive to lower freight traffic growth, because these locomotives,
which replace obsolete equipment, are needed to carry 1976 traffic.4/ Not sensitive.
RAN
Income Accounts 1970-1976
CFAF Million
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976
Operating Revenue
Passengers 1601 1792 2115 2376 2829 3471 4490Freight 2322 2602 2718 3332 3610 3395 4630Orher incl. wagons-lit, hotels 138 168 308 385 634 884 1823
Total Operating Revenue 4061 4562 5141 6093 7073 7750 10943Operating Expenses
Staff costs 2357 2575 2735 3094 3751 4373 5136Fuel 226 298 372 386 573 674 783Other material 411 713 741 820 1153 1272 1902Other costs 492 610 640 626 748 1248 1373
Total Cash Outgoing 3486 4196 4488 4926 6225 7567 9194Cash Generation from Operations 575 366 653 1167 848 183 1749Depreciation 696 757 810 998 1245 1081 1329
Total Operating Expenses 4182 4953 5298 5924 7470 8648 10523Net Operating Revenue (loss) (121) (391) (157) 169 (397) (898) 420Interest Charges 64 64 64 198 261 311 775Subsidies from Governments 233 231 251 290 1189 673 809Net Surplus (loss) 48 (224) 30 261 531 (536) 454Working Ratio 867% 92% 87Z 81% 88% 97% 84%Operating Ratio 103% 109% 103% 97% 104% 113% 96%Times Interest Earned - - 0.9x - - - 0.5Debt Service 64 64 64 376 474 726 1157Debt Service 8overage 9.0 5.7 10.4 3.1 1.8 0.3 1.5Average Net Fixed Assets in Service 13077 13610 15675 18180 20458 22133 24728Rate of Retura (0.9%) (2.9%) (1.0%) 0.9% (1.9%) (4.1%) 1.7% 'Average Gross Fixed Assets in Service 18415 19670 22520 25930 29266 32169 35985Depreciating Ratio 3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.8% 4.3% 3.4% 3.7%
--SourCeL RAN
July 1977
TABLE 7
RAN
Summary Balance Sheets
as of Dec. 31. 1970-1975-
(in CFAF Million)
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
ASSETS
Fixed Assets
Gross Value 18934 20412 24630 27231 31300 33038
Less Depreciation 5686 6443 7253 8251 9496 10577
Nét Fixed Assets in Use 13248 13969 17377 18980 21804 22461
Work in Progress 1785 2909 439 492 447 2879
Total Fixed Assets 15033 16878 17816 19472 22251 25340
Investments 3 4 26 158 197 208
Other Non-Current Assets -/ 3 3 3 12 832 2495
Net Current Assets
Current Assets:Cash 645 564 359 353 254 383
Receivables 710 564 708 754 2431 3920
stores 523 612 790 876 1132 1160
Suspense Items 4 13 98 16 15 13
Sub-Total Current Assets 1882 1753 1955 1999 3832 5476
Less Current LiabilitiesBank Overdrafts - - - - 482 2778
Loan Terms 10 5 119 213 239 571
Payables 1199 1730 1753 2089 3615 2776
Sub-Total Current Liabilities 1209 1735 1872 2302 4336 6125
Total Net Current Assets 673 18 83 (303) (504)- (649)
Total Assets 15712 16903 17928 19339 22776 27394
LIABILITIES
Equity 14575 14627 14896 15521 17950 19746
Long-Term Debt 1137 2276 3032 3818 4826 7648
Total Liabilities 15712 16903 17928 19339 22776 27394
Ratios
Current 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Liquid 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7
Debt/Equity 7/93 13/87 17/83 20/80 21/79 28/72
1/ Since 1974 mostly Government contributions due after more than one year.
RAN
Forecast Income Accounts 1976-1982
(in CFAF Million)
1976 4/ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982Operating Revenue
Passengers 4490 4794 5190 5494 5798 6174 6460Freight 4630 5448 5953 6376 6922 7416 7838Miscellaneous 1823 2020 2060 2100 2150 2200 2250Rate increases - 1471 3802 6720 9230 12010 15412Total Operating Revenue 10943 13733 17005 20690 24100 27800 31960
Operating Expenses
Staff costs 5136 6215 6526 6908 7435 7956 8510Fuel 783 818 888 948 1022 1088 1147Other 3275 3668 3897 4146 4463 4749 5030Inflationary cost increases - 856 1878 3121 4651 6469 8621Total cash outgoing 9194 11557 13189 15123 17571 20262 23308Cash generation from operations 1749 2176 3816 5567 6529 7538 8652Depreciation 1329 1630 1920 2210 2500 2800 3120Total Operating Expenses 10523 13187 15109 17333 20071 23062 26428
Net Operating Revenue 420 546 1896 3357 4029 4738 5532
Interests:on long-term debt 586 1006 1269 1447 1596 1903 2012on Bank overdraft 189 270 250 30 - -Total interest charges 775 1276 1519 1477 1596 1903 2012Government subsidies for current 809 922 926 1030 391 452 523maintenance
Net Surplus 454 192 1303 2910 2824 3287 4043Ratios: _
Working 84% 84% 78% 73% 73% 73% 73%Operating 96% 96% 89% 84% 83% 83% 83%Times interest earned 0.5 0.4 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7Debt service coverage 1.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1Average net fixed assets in service 24728 30925 38836 45376 50958 56043 62134Rate of return 1.7% 1.8% 4.9% 7.4% 7.9% 8.5% 8.9% vAverage gross fixed assets in service 35985 43677 53363 61968 69905 77640 86691 0Depreciating ratio 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
Source: RAN and Mission estimates
August 19771/Actual data
RAN
Forecast Balance Sheetsas of December 31, 1976-1982
(in CFAF Million)
ASSETS: 19761/ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Fixed AssetsGross Value 38931 48422 58303 65632 74177 81102 92279Less Depreciation 11937 13567 15487 17697 20197 22997 26117Net Fixed Assets in Use 26994 34855 42816 47935 53980 58105 66162Work in Progress 4000 5000 6000 6000 3000 4000 1000Total Fixed Assets 30994 39855 48816 56980 62105 6-7162
Other Fixed Assets2/ 3150 4720 5960 7010 7360 7680 7600
Net Current AssetsCurrent Assets:Cash 458 620 750 1578 1568 1491 1560Receivables:Contributions 3128 3596 2316 2242 1964 1434 1200Others 1470 1850 2400 3100 3600 4100 4800
Stores 1132 1450 1850 2270 2640 3020 3450Sub-Total Current Assets 6188 7516 7316 9190 9772 10045 11010Less Current Liabilities:Bank Overdrafts 1533 3907 370 - - - -
Payables 3305 4100 4100 3600 3600 4300 4800Sub-Total Current Liabilities 4838 8007 4470 3600 3600 4300 4800Total Net Current Assets 1350 (1491) 2846 5590 6172 5745 6210
Total Assets 35494 45066 57622 66535 70512 75530 80972
LIABILITIES:Equity 20924 24577 30462 36940 40862 44800 49369Long-Term Debt 14570 20489 27160 29595 29650 30707 31603Total Liabilities 35494 45066 57622 66535 70512 75530 80972
RatiosCurrent 1.3 0.9 1.6 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.3 '
Liquid 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.6 1.6Debt/Equity 41/59 46/54 47/53 44/56 42/58 41/49 39/61
Source: RAN and mission estimates1/preliminary data-i/mostly Governments' share of RAN's debt for infrastructure renewal, except for CFAF 208 million of investments.
August 1977
RAN
Forecast Sources and Application of Funds
(in CFAF Millions)
SOURCES 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Cash generated from operations 2176 3816 5567 6529 7538 8652Government contributions 2108 4788 3790 1227 1134 1434IDA(60%) 588 118 59 - -Loans:IBRD 1054 2205 1470 907 - -IDA(40%) - 392 78 39 - -
CIDA 2070 2700 1910 450 - -Total proposed project 3124 5297 3458 1396 - -Other loans 3640 2230 200 300 3000 3100Total loans 6764 7527 3658 1696 3000 3100Total Sources 11048 16719 13133 9511 11672 13186
APPLICATIONS
Capital investment 10606 11007 7689 5692 8253 8505Debt service:Interest 1006 1269 1447 1596 1903 2012Amortization 845 856 1223 1641 1943 2204Total debt service 1851 2125 2670 3237 3846 4216Interest on Bank overdraft 270 250 30 - - -
Increase (decrease) in working capital 371 (330) 1546 592 (350) 396Total Applications 13098 13052 11935 9521 11749 13117
Cash increase (decrease) in year (2212) 3667 1198 (10) (77) 69Cash balance brought forward (1075) (3287) 380 1578 1568 1491Cash at end of year (3287) 380 1578 1568 1491 1560
Source: Ran and Mission estimatesAugust 1977
ANNEX 1Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
Regional Railway Project:
Bank Projects in the Transport Sector
A. Ivory Coast
Ln. No. 542 First Highway Project: US$5.8 million Loan ofJune 21, 1968; Closing Date: December 31. 1974.
This project has been satisfactorily completed.
Ln. No. 761 Second Highway Project: US$20.5 million Loan ofJune 22, 1971; Closing Date: November 30. 1975.
This project was satisfactorily completed in September 1975. The fundsremaining under the loan are being used to finance the supplementary urbanstudies for Abidjan, initiated under the Third Highway Project.
Ln, No. 837 Third Highway Project: US$17.5 million Loan ofJune 23, 1972; Closing Date: September 30. 1977.
The project includes (i) a four-year maintenance program; (ii) the realignmentand strengthening of about 110 km of existing paved highways; (iii) consultingservices to supervise these works; and (iv) a feasibility study and detailedengineering of an Abidjan urban deelopment project. The maintenance andbetterment programs are progressing satisfactorily. Construction work for thepavement strengthening program started in March 1975; contract amount is about120 percent over appraisal estimates due to inflation and modification of de-sign standards. The Government has agreed to finance all overruns. Construc-tion of the bridge and the urban development study for Abidjan have beensatisfactorily completed.
Cr. No. 406 Fourth Hiphway Project: US$7.5 million Credit ofJune 28, 1973; Closing Date: June 30, 1978.
The project provides for (i) construction of the Yabago-Gagnoa road (79 km);(ii) reconstruction of the N'zi River bridge; and (iii) a feeder road study incotton growing areas. Construction works on the road started about one yearbehind schedule due to delays in contract awarding and contractors' failure tomobilize equipment in time; progress during the last six months has beensatisfactory. Project costs are about 70 percent above appraisal estimates
ANNEX 1Page 2
due to inflation and adoption of higher construction standards than originallyenvisaged. The Government will assume financing of all cost overruns. Con-struction of the N'zi River bridge and the feeder road study have been satis-factorily completed.
Ln. No. 1161 Fifth Highway Project: US$43 million Loan ofSeptember 5, 1975; Closing Date: June 30, 1979.
The project includes (i) continuation of the pavement strengthening program(about 200 km) initiated under the Third Highway Project; (ii) realignment ofa 27-km section of the Azaguie-Adzope road and construction of the Anyama-Agboville road (45 km); (iii) equipment for traffic counting, vehicle weightcontrol and pavement surveys; (iv) technical assistance to establish a plann-ing and research unit in MPWT, to train local staff and to reorganize thePublic Works Laboratory; and (v) feasibility studies and detailed engineeringfor the Mankono-Tenigbone road (66 km) and for about 300 km of other secondaryroads to be identified and a study of feeder roads requirements. Constructionof the Anyama-Agboville road and the pavement strengthening program started atthe beginning of 1976. Consultants have started the engineering studiesprovided for under the project. The terms of reference for the planning andresearch unit within MTPT are being finalized in consultation with the Bank.UNDP was originally to finance the updating of the transport survey but cannotdo so due to lack of funds. The Government has agreed to amend the LoanAgreement to include financing of the survey in this loan.
B. Upper Volta
Credit 316: Road Project. US$4.15 Million Credit of June 26, 1972(As amended on March 25, 1974); Effective Date: December31, 1974; Closing Date: December 31, 1977.
The project originally comprised: (a) the reconstruction of the Solenzo-Koudougou (70 km) and Hounde-Bereba (27 km) roads, and (b) feasibilitystudies for about 400 km of primary roads, and engineering of those sec-tions found to have the highest priority. Construction of the Solenzo-Koudougou road began in March 1974 and is now completed. Construction ofthe Hounde-Bereba road was deleted from the project as justification forthe road disappeared when construction of a ginnery at Hounde was deemedunnecessary. Resulting funds were transferred to a drainage works construc-tion component. Of the four roads proposed under part (b), only two (Bobo-Dioulasso to Hounde and Bobo-Dioulasso to Banfora, a total of 190 km) wereselected for feasibility studies on the basis of satisfactory rates of re-turn. Due to currency realignment and cost overruns on the road construc-tion component, the dollar cost of the project increased. To enable projectcompletion, the Association approved, on March 25, 1974, an increase incredit amount from US$2.8 million to US$4.15 million.
ANNEX 1Page 3
Credit 579: Rural Roads Project. US$7.5 Million-Credit of August13, 1975; Effective Date: February 11, 1976; ClosingDate: December 31, 1979.
The project, to be carried out over four years, provides for (a) improve-ment and subsequent maintenance of about 1,200 km of rural roads and main-tenance of about 2,100 km of existing roads; (b) strengthening of theService d'Entretien des Routes Secondaires (SERS) through technical assis-tance to the Ministry of Public Works; and (c) implementation of the aboveroad program and procurement of highway equipment. Bids for equipment forfeeder road improvement and maintenance works have been received, all equip-ment is expected to be delivered on schedule and recruitment of local per-sonnel is advancing effectively.
Credit 653: Third Highway Prolect. US$20 Million Credit of July15, 1976; Effective Date: December 15, 1976; ClosingDate: June 30, 1980.
The project consists of (a) reconstruction to paved standard of the 182 kmBanfora-Bobo-Dioulasso-Hounde road (the most important transportation linkin the high potential agricultural region of the Southwest); (b) procurementof equipment for vehicle weight control, including provision of fixed facili-ties for installation and traffic counting equipment; (c) consulting servicesfor a study of road maintenance and pre-investment studies for about 150 kmof roads; (d) technical assistance for strengthening the Directorate of Trans-port (DOT) and assisting the Office de Promotion de l'Entreprise Voltaique(OPEV) in the promotion of domestic civil works industry. As a result of thefeasibility and engineering studies completed under the Road Project (Cr. 316)construction on part (a) is about to begin.
ANNEX 2Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL FIRST RAILWAY PROJECT
TECENICAL TRAINING
Background
1. RAN operates a 1,159 km single track lune running from the Portof Abidjan in the Ivory Coast to Ouagadougou in Upper Volta, with principaloperational centers in Abidjan (main station for freight and passengers),Bouake and Bobo-Dioulasso (freight car workshops). These three centers alsoserve as headquarters for RAN's operating districts and branches into whichthe railway line is divided. The extent of the area covered by the line,and the fact that it runs through two countries have a bearing on the recruit-ment and training of personnel.
2. Training activities have been carried out by RAN since 1973, butmore systematic training has been conducted only since the Training Division(TD) (Service de la Formation Professionnelle) was established in 1974.
A. Current Trainins Activities
3. Based on recommendations contained in a 1973 study made by SOFRERAIL,RAN recruited a training adviser from OFERMAT in early 1974 to assist in pre-paring and carrying out a comprehensive training program. The objectives ofthis program are the retraining and upgrading of about 2,000 current employeesand the training of some 1,000 new recruits during the next five years (1978-82). Because of a scarcity of training facilities , training equipment andexperienced instructors and poor worklng relations betveen TD and some of theoperating departments, training has produced only modest results so far inrelation to the relatively large number of available instructors. Between1974, when TD was organized, and the end of 1976, some 700 RAN personnelwere trained, mainly through short classroom courses. Table 1 of this annexgives a breakdown of training activities, most of which reportedly took placein 1976.
4. TD has concentrated on the training of skilled labor and supervisorsfrom Motive Power & Rolling Stock (MP&RS) and Tracks & Works (T&W) Departmentsto meet the most urgent needs of the railway. Courses to upgrade certaincategories of personnel and special programs to train some African instructorshave also been carried out. Many of the training programs have been tootheoretical due in part to lack of training equipment. Although a fewspecific courses have been conducted for middle-level supervisors, theirtraining has consisted mainly of programs abroad provided either by the DoualaTraining Center or SNCF-France. The results of these programs have not alwaysbeen very satisfactory.
ANNEX 2
Page 2
5. Presently, fifteen classrooms are available for training, asfollows:
(a) Abidjan Main Center Capacity
Operations (OP) : 2 classrooms eachfor 20 trainees - 40
Motive Pover & (MP&RS) : 4 classrooms eachRolling Stock for 20 trainees - 80
3 classrooms each - 60for 20 trainees1 design-room for20 trainees - 20
Tracks & Works (T&W) 2 classrooms eachfor 15 trainees - 30
Signalling & Telecom. (S&T) : 1 classroomfor 20 trainees - 20
250
(b) Bouake Secondary Center
Training facilities, which were extremely limited, have beenused by RAN for other purposes.
(c) Bobo-Dioulasso Secondary Center
OP, MP&RS, S&T : 1 classroom, for15 trainees - 15
: 1 technology roomfor 12 trainees - 12
27GRAND TOTAL 277
6. The percentage of training equipment and materials currentlyavailable is estimated as follows: OP 100%, MP&RS 35%, T&W 90%, S&T 20%.Most of this equipment is out-dated and inadequate. On the other hand, exceptfor the T&W and S&T Departments, where several courses have not yet beenprepared, manuals for the training of OP and especially MP&RS personnel aremostly available.
7. Excluding the Chief of TD, the teaching staff currentlynumbers 32, as follows:
ANNEX 2Page 3
(a) Full-time Instructors
(i) Expatriates
3 Chief Instructors, OP, MP&RS, T&W (French technicalassistants) 1/
10 "Contingent Personnel" 2/13
(ii) Africans
4 Instructors - OP5 Instructors - MP&RS9
(b) Part-Time Instructors
5 Instructors - Financial Department3 Instructors - Commercial Department- Instructors - Data Processing 3/- Instructors - Police 4/2 Instructors - Stores & Supply- Instructors - Personnel, Administrative
and General Divisions 5/
8. The training capability of the instructors varies; some have eitherlimited technical knowledge or pedagogical experience or both. Efforts toimprove and strengthen middle-level staff by requiring technical assistantsattached to RAN to train counterparts or to conduct training courses andseminars (as part of their OFERMAT terms-of-reference) have been limited
1/ The T&W Chief Instructor was recently recruited (OFERMAT) and hashad no previous experience in training. The OP Chief Instructor maybe transferred to other duties shortly.
2/ French nationals serving for periods of up to two years to substitutefor military service.
3/ Training is expected to be carried out abroad.
4/ Personnel to be trained at the National School of Police.
5/ Personnel to be trained at the Ivorian Center for Management ofEnterprises.
ANNEX 2Page 4
because the training function has been subordinate to the expatriates' other
duties or because they lacked training experience. Only by setting up or-ganized, planned and continuous courses and seminars can the objectives bemet. This requires expertise on the part of technical assistance staff when
identifying training needs and preparing specially-tailored programs.
9. A technical assistant has headed the TD since 1974. Although heseems to be a dedicated person, he has been unable to establish effectiveworking relations with RAN's department heads. An African counterpart ordeputy to the Chief of the TD has not yet been recruited.
10. Although RAN has taken positive steps to establish TD, the opera-
tional effectiveness of this relatively new division has been modest becauseof: (a) shortage of both human and physical training resources; (b) lack of
a sound training methodology; (c) failure to allow TD to be responsible forthe training of middle-level staff; and (d) lack of an evaluation system.The Bank has discussed these problems with RAN's management and has madespecific recommendations in writing on how to remedy this situation. Therecommendations have been agreed to in principle by RAN.
B. Future Training Activities
11. The study of RAN's training needs carried out by SOFRERAIL indicated,inter alia, that a long-term training plan would be required along the follow-ing lines:
(a) training of newly recruited personnel to enable themto be assigned to positions requiring rapid adaptation;
(b) training of existing personnel to qualify them forpromotion;
(c) specific courses for supervisor candidates to be trainedin a variety of activities which they will eventually beasked to supervise;
(d) refresher courses for existing personnel in order toimprove their knowledge and skills; and
(e) management seminars for medium- and high-level personnel.
The program, divided into four integrated phases, envisioned (i) the settingup of a TD with overall responsibilities for training, retraining and up-grading RAN personnel; (ii) the collection and/or preparation of courses,curricula and teaching materials; (iii) a crash program to retrain some 550priority personnel occupying low/medium supervisory grades; and (iv) theupgrading of medium/high level management.
ANNEX 2Page 5
12. To implement this program SOFRERAIL proposed the constructionof an elaborate main training center in Abidjan (Abobo) and two secondarycenters at Bouake and Bobo-Dioulasso. It also included (i) a teaching staffconsisting of a director and some 20 instructors, (ii) the purchase of con-siderable training equipment and materials, and (iii) the recruitment of nineexpatriates experienced in training railway personnel.
13. Based on these recommendations, RAN formulated a program for retrain-ing, upgrading and training most of its staff. However, following a BankGroup recommendation, RAN's management agreed, that although the solution oflong-term training needs should be considered in due course, RAN shouldconcentrate in the next few years on a program which would meet the mosturgent training priorities. This could be accomplished by retraining andtraining the key personnel of each operating department who have specificsupervisory responsibilities and who, in turn, would be able to train theirsubordinates.
14. The plan which will eventually enable the training and retrainingof about 500 skilled workers and low-level supervisors each year involves thef ollowing: (a) only minor improvements and expansion of existing physicaltraining facilities in Abidjan; (b) the construction of limited facilities atBouake and Bobo Dioulasso; (c) the purchase of training equipment and mate-rials; (d) the strengthening of the TD; and (e) continuation and expansion oftechnical assistance. Details are as follows:
ANNEX 2Page 6
CFAF '000 US$
(a) Abidjan - Main Center
(i) One Dormitory and related )facilities (50 trainees) ) 41,000 167,347
(ii) One Storeroom )
(iii) One Technology Room )
(iv) Furniture/Equipment 4,770 19,470
(v) Training Equipment and 113,865 464,755Materials
Sub-total 159,635 651,572
(b) Bouake - Secondary Center
(i) Four Dormitories )(each 10 trainees) )
(ii) Three Classrooms )(each 15 trainees) )
(iii) One Technology Room ) 48,300 197,143
(iv) One Signalization Room )
(v) One Storeroom )
(vi) Two Offices )
(vii) Furniture/Equipment 4,950 20,204
(viii) Training Equipment andMaterials 2,280 9,306
Sub-Total 55,530 226,653
(c) Bobo-Dioulasso - Secondary Center
(i) Two Dormitories )(each 20 trainees) )
(ii) Two classrooms ) 30,000 122,449(each 15 trainees) )
(iii) One Signalization Room )
(iv) One Storeroom )
ANNEX 2Page 7
CFAF'000 US$
(v) Furniture/Equipment 4,650 18,980
(vi) Training Equipment andMaterials 2,280 9.306
Sub-Total 36,930 150,735
TOTAL 252 095 1.028.960
15. The implementation of the expanded program will require: (a) an ex-perienced and active head of the TD (the present head is reportedly expectedto retire shortly); (b) one expatriate chief instructor for the S&T Depart-ment; and (c) one short-term expatriate specialist to provide pedagogicaltraining for new and existing African instructors. Funds have been includedin the project to finance this staff. In addition, RAN would provide sixAfrican technicians to be trained as instructors as soon as possible. Thereare presently three French technical assistants acting as chief instructors,on a full-time basis, for OP, MP&RS and T&W. This number should not bereduced until Africans trained under the project can take over. Alterna-tively, if any of them should be considered unsuitable or should be trans-ferred elsewhere, experienced replacements should be provided by FAC. Thebreakdown of new instructors required is as follows:
MP&RS - Two African instructors to train locomotive driversand electrical and mechanical personnel, respectively.
OP - One expatriate chief instructor, if the present oneis transferred elsewhere, and four African instructorsto conduct courses in tariffs, bookkeeping, security,movement, litigation, etc.,
S&T - One expatriate chief instructor.
T&W - One expatriate chief instructor, if it is agreedthat the present one should be replaced.
16. Regardless of their capability, the duration of the Africaninstructors' assignments should not last more than five years. At the endof their assignments they should return to their respective units for prac-tical experience and learn any new technology. By the time they are trans-ferred back to the departments, replacements with equal training capabilityshould be in position. Instructors would be selected from among experiencedpersonnel fully versed in their respective fields, but, in addition, theyshould demonstrate patience, the ability to communicate, and the desire toteach for a few years. They should not be permanently assigned to TD, butrotated on a regular basis. Their main tasks, especially those expected totrain MP&RS and T&W personnel, will be to arrange classroom programs, preparespecific courses, conduct classroom and workshop training and then, in closecollaboration with the workshop foremen and superintendents, supervise pro-duction training.
ANNEX 2Page 8
17. Similary, the assignments of expatriate instructors should notbe more than four to five years. Their recruitment should be based not onlyon their knowledge of railway operations but also on their experience intraining personnel in developed as well as developing countries. RAN agreedthat all TD's expatriate staff will select, as early as possible, suitableAfrican instructors to be trained to take over their responsibilities.
180 RAN relies also on 10 to 12 "econtingent" personnel to assist withtraining. They are young Frenchmen who are serving overseas in lieu ofmilitary service. The concept is basically good, but, apart from a fewwho are specialized in some technical field directly or indirectly connectedwith railway work and some who have had some years of experience with SNCF,the remaining ones are generalists. There seems to be some disagreementamong RAN officials as to their usefulness. Some believe that even thoughthey are not specialized in any specific discipline, they are adequate toconduct general pre-training courses for new recruits whose scholastic back-ground is low. Others believe that only those specialized in fields ofimmediate use to RAN should be accepted.
19. Since there appears to be some need for general pre-training,RAN could retain a few "contingent" personnel for this purpose, but shouldmake sure that the others have real practical experience with either SNCF orother technical agencies/institutions.
20. There is a need to recruit, as soon as possible, an African deputyto the director of TD. This deputy would initially fill a number of positionsof increasing responsibility leading to the position of director of TD. Anengineer with three to five years responsible operational experience with RANshould be selected. In addition to good technical knowledge of railwayactivities, he should demonstrate a keen interest in manpower development,ability to organize and communicate, and patience. Alternatively, a goodadministrator (generalist) with training potential should be assigned orrecruited, who, in time, could gain sufficient experience in the variousrailways activities. Once the approved candidate has carried out the respon-sibilities stated earlier, he would be sent to various institutes and rail-ways in Europe and Canada to attend training courses. In addition, he shouldalso carry out some practical work in the field of training before completinghis program. On his return, assuming satisfactory completion of his owntraining program, he should be nominated director of the TD. To ensurea smooth transition from one administration to the other, the expatriatedirector of TD in office at that time should be requested to remain for areasonable period as an adviser to the new director.
ANNEX 2Page 9
21. The funds allocated for training under the project will enablethe TD to carry out a two-year priority program including: (a) orientationand training of new recruits; (b) training of existing skilled laborers andsupervisors to bring their performance up to standard; and (c) upgrading ofpersonnel to provide selected staff with career development opportunities.Moreover, in addition to theoretical courses the TD would carry out, incollaboration with the operating departments, practical training in thecenters using the equipment to be financed under the loan. This would befollowed by adequate periods of on-the-job training at the main workshopthrough actual repair and maintenance work under the direct supervision of theTD instructors. Training of middle and high-level managerial staff will becarried out by the consultant in charge of the improvement of the railway'smanagement and operations (para. 4.18).
22. On the basis of the comprehensive training plan, the followingprograms were agreed with RAN's Department Heads:
(a) a short-term interim program, capable of being carriedout with the training resources presently available,during 1977;
(b) a two-year priority program (1978-1979) to start as soonas Bank funds can be utilized; and
(c) a three-year program (1980-1982) which would followand consolidate action taken during the priority program.Information on this program is not yet available.
Details of programs (a) and (b) above are given in Table 2 and 3 ofthis annex.
C. Financing of Training
23. The cost of strengthening TD and implementing an expanded trainingprogram is estimated at US$1.4 million plus US$0.4 million for contingencies.The project will, as indicated in para. 4.05 of the cost estimate, providefor:
ANNEX 2Page 10
CFAF million US$'000
(a) construction and expansion ofphysical training facilitiesin Abidjan, Bouake and Bobo-Dioulasso (Table 4); 119.3 486.9
(b) furniture and equipment for thethree centers; 14.4 58.8
(c) didactic materials and trainingequipment for the three centers(Table 5); 118.4 483.3
(d) technical assistance (one seniorexpatriate training expert for24 months; one chief instructor(S&T) for 24 months; one expatriateinstructor for 2 months). 75.9 310.0
328.0 1,339.0 1/
_/ This amount includes both local and foreign costs vithoutcontingencies.
. ~~~~~~~~~~~Table 1
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ANNEX 2Tabl
EST24ATED INTERIIM PROGRAM- 1977 )
CATEOORY U1 il 13 77 10 11
OPEURT TON
Station Attendants _74 2 _Station Masters - 26 _
IN0TIVE POWER &ROLLING STOCK
Workshops
Skilled Workers _ _ 9h _ _Assistant Foremen _ _ 15 -
LocomotivesLoco Drivers _ _ _. 0 o _
TRACKS & WORKS
Trackmen 2 _ 12 Foremen 6Linemen _ 6 _Bobo -DioulasSOTrackmien 51 l
99 6 _ _ 252
105 a2i
398
ANNEX 2Table 3Pag=e1
ESTIMATED 2-YEAR PRIORITY PROGRAM(1978-1979)
DEPARTMENT RETRAINING TRAINING CATEGORY/GRADE 1/4 5/7 7Il 1 1713 1/4 1 5/7 O0 I1/-L3
OPERATION (EX)
Station Attendants 240 _ _ _ 64 _ _ _Switchmen _ - 52 - - 2Station Masters 160 _ 23 Assistant Station ,Mast'ers 4 IO<__
S.T. 240 O160 45 116 23 10
MOTIVE POWER &ROLLING STOCK (MT)
A. Loco Drivers I jLoco Drivers _ - 60 - _ _ Senior Loco Drivers 51 - - -Assistant Chief v - -
Loco Drivers _ - 15 6 t iChief Loco Drivers _ I 6
B. Workshops $ IElectricalSkilled Workers _ i _ _ 157 _Assistant Foremen - _ - - 15 fSenior Foremen 3 19- - - -
Thermal .,Assistant Foremen 5- ' -I _ b _ _Foremen --i 15 -_ _Senior Foremen 9- -' - I g -_ ' _
Mechanical iAssistant Foremen -I - -I - - i _tForemen 5- - 52 - - - 8 jSenior Foremen 9
S.T. 106 82 43 217 8 ;
TRACKS & WORKS 1.
Trackmen 6 -- 8 - t
Assistant Chief of:Districts _ _ 8 - - !Eouipment Operators;Operators/Drivers - 5 - - - - -
S.T. - il 8 - - 8 -
ANNEX 2Table 3Page 2
DEPARTMENT RETRAINING TRAININïG 11113
C,TERY/GRADDE 17/4 5/7 7/10 11/13 1 7/4X 5/7 7/10 11/13
TELECOMMUNICATION& SIGNALIZATION
Foremen _ 7 _ _ _ 4 -Assistant Inspectors - _ _ - -_ 5Inspectors _ - 5 _ -_
S.T _ 7 _ 5 _ 4 5
ADMINISTRATION
Finance DivisionEmployees _ - _ - _ 10 _
Senior Employees _ _ - _ _ - il -_
Chiefs of Group 7 _ _ _ i
S.T. - -i 7
AdministrationDivision
Being Reorganized _ _ _ _ _ _ _
CommercialDivisionCommercial Staff 2 _ j _ _ _ 25 t
St To _ _ - _ i_ 2 5
I ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . _ t X .--.... !240 284 135 48 333 60 t 36 12
x . _ S _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ T_ |_ ._i_ _
TOTALS 707 + 441
G.T. 1,1>48
ANNEX 2Table 4
Physical Training Facilitiesto be Constructed
Cost in CFAF ('000)Remarks Length Width Surface per m 2 Total
(m)- (m) (m2)
ABIDJAN:
Dormitory (50 beds) 62 6 372 75 28,000Sanitary facilities
(80 persons) 7.5 8 60 85 5,000Tool shed 5 4 20 75 1,500Technology room
(20 trainees) 8.7 10 87 75 6,500539 41,000
BOUAKE
3 classrooms (each20 traïnees) 7 7 147
2 offices (instructors) 7 5 70Technology room
(12 trainees) 7 7 49Signalling room
(20 trainees) 7 7 49Tool shed 7 3 214 dormitories (each
10 trainees) 7 12 336672 72 48,300
BOBO-DIOULASSO
2 classrooms (each 20trainees) 7 7 98
Technology room(12 trainees) 7 7 49
Tool shed 7 3 212 dormitories (each
20 trainees) 7 22 308476 63 30,000
TOTAL 1687 m2 119,300
ANNEX 2
Table 5Page 1
ESTIMATED COST OF TRAINING EQUIPMENT
Abidjan Main Center CFAF ('000)
1 Bus for Trainees 3,000
3 Epidiascopes 660
3 Slide Projectors 180
2 Oscilloscopes 2,500
2 Power Packs 100
7 Metrix Electro Pliers 210
5 Megohmeters 350
7 Metrix Controllers 250
9 Metrix Table Mîcroammeters 900
8 Metrix Ammeters 1,120
8 Voltmeters 320
8 Universal Sets of Electric Meters with Case 800
5 Wattmeters 1,000
5 Wheatstone Bridges 650
Miscellaneous Parts (cords, plugs, etc.) 2,500
1 Electronic Reproducer 465
1 Duplicator 160
1 Offset Machine with Photocopier 2,700
1 SADIN 220 Photocopier 320
4 ISOP 230 DP 1000 Vernier Lathes 20,000
4 Gambin Milling Machines with Tools 44,000
1 Drill, 13 Adam 300
1 Drill, 22 Adam 600
ANNEX 2Table 5Page 2
Abidjan Main Center (continued) CFAF ('000)
3 Shaping Machines, 450 Vernier 2,600
1 Grinder 80
1 Universal Sharpener 2,200
1 Machine for hardness tests 4,000
5 Stationary Welding Sets, 220 A 1,500
4 Revolving Welding Machines, 220 A 3,200
5 Field Welding Sets 400
Pneumatic and Vacuum Equipment (braking), for modelB-BB 1800 Locomotive 3,800
Miscellaneous Tools 13,000
Sub-total 113,865
Bouake Secondary Center
1 Signalling Model 1,OOO
Hand Tools for T&W 1,000
1 Epidiascope 220
1 Slide Projector 60
Sub-total 2,280
Bobo-Dioulasso Secondary Center
1 Signalling Model 1,000
Hand Tools for T&W 1,000
1 Epidiascope 220
1 Slide Projector 60
Sub-total 2,280
TOTAL 118,425
ANNEX 3Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Railway Property
A. Track (See Chart 2)
1. The construction of the RAN railway can be divided into twodistinct periods. During the first one, 1904-1927, the line was builtfromn Abidjan to Tafire (487 km). It had low standard characteristics:
- minimum curve radius: 170 m;
- maximum gradient: 27.5 mm/m;
- 25-26 kg rails: 6 to 8 m long;
- axle load limit: 10 tons; and
- maximum speed: 40-60 kph for freight trains, and50-80 kph for passenger trains.
During the second period, 1927-1954, the Tafire-Ouagadougou section was builtwith improved characteristics:
- minimum curve radius: 500 m;
- maximum gradient: 10 mm/m;
- 30 kg rails: 10 to 12 m long;
- axle load limit: 15 tons; and
- maximum speed: 80 kph.
2. To correct the severe characteristics of the profile of the firstsection, some realignment works with the latter standards were executedbefore 1969 (Abidjan-Agboville: 80 km in 25 years). Since 1969, the realign-ment projects have been undertaken by the present management at a rate whichis expected to be approximately 50 km per year. These projects are:
ANNEX 3Page 2
1970-1972 Agboville-Dimbokro (105 km) with FEDfinancing (CFAF 2,830 million); and
1974-1977 Dimbokro-Bouake (130 km) with a FED-EIBLoan (CFAF 6,280 million).
3. When this latter project is completed, nearly the whole systemwill have the uniform new standards (mainly 500-m minimum curve radiusand 10 mm/m maximum gradient) except for the Bouake-Tafire stretch whichlies between the previously realigned section Abidjan-Bouake and theTafire-Ouagadougou section. However, between Abidjan and Le Banco (14 kmfrom Treichville, the main Abidjan station for freight and passengers) thereare still very sharp curves (140 to 175 m radius) and steep slopes (17.5 mm/m).This requires double-headed trains for loads above 500-700 tons (dependingon the type of locomotive). In addition, there are numerous curves betweenLe Banco and Agboville with radii shorter than 500 m (mostly 300-m radiuscurves).
4. All lines are meter-gauge and single-track, except for a section ofabout 16 km between Chechi and Anoumaba which is double-track (see Chart 2).
5. 3 The whole line is now ballasted with hard stone with an averageof 0.8 m of ballast per meter of track, except on 34 km near Banfora in UpperVolta where balllsting is presently underway to complete the volume ofballast to 0.8 m and on about 100 km ngrthwards from Bobo-Dioulasso inUpper Volta where there is 0.4 to 0.7 m /m of sandstone standing.
6. The infrastructure of the track is generally stable. There weresome problems of track stability between Azaguie (PK 42) and Yapo (PK 63)which appear to have been solved. The present major concern about tracksubgrade stability lies in the numerous eroded fills which need reinforce-ment in Upper-Volta, mainly between Banfora (PK 699) and Koudougou (PK 1052).
7. The track material is in rather good condition except on thefollowing sections:
(i) Azaguie-Yapo in the Ivory Coast, where 22 km of rails andsleepers are to be renewed because of heavy corrugation whichresults in track instability causing frequent repairs andtrain speed limitations. This is not to be included in theproposed project because it is RAN's intention to rebuild theline on another alignment with a double-track formation, aproject for which the Bank estimates that a more satisfactorysolution still needs to be worked out (para. 4.01).
(ii) Bouake-(PK 315) - PK 476 near Tafire (PK 488) where 25 and 26 kgrails more than 50-year old have to be replaced due to corrugation,lateral wear and laminated railhead in the curves. There is nomore 25 or 26-kg spare rails available for track repair;
ANNEX 3Page 3
(iii) PK 589-593, section located between Ferkessedougou and Ouango-lodougou, in the Ivory Coast, where the 30-kg rails had to bereplaced a few years ago, following a derailment, by spare railsfrom the store and the quality of the metal appears to bedefective. The track lining and surfacing have to be correctedfrequently due to corrugation wear and the track conditionwill never be satisfactory until the rails are replaced;
(iv) PK 854-PK 905, section located between Bobo-Dioulasso (PK 795)and Koudougou (PK 1052) in Upper Volta, where second-hand 33-kgrails were laid down in 1949-1950. These rails, manufacturedin 1917 in the United States, are still in fairly good shapeand can be kept in service for at least another 5 to 6 yearsunder the traffic conditions prevailing in Upper Volta;
(v) PK 923-Ouagadougou (PK 1145) where 330,000 pre-stressed concretesleepers were installed at the construction. These concretesleepers are fragile and present frequent cracks at the fasteningholes. These sleepers will gradually be replaced during an11-year program in order to avoid the sudden need for a huge,crash renewal program. This is a serious safety matter.
8. The specifications for the track material laid down during construc-tion provided for rails of unit weight which was successively of 25, 26 and 30kg per meter. Presently, RAN's specifications for new track laying provide for:
(i) 36-kg per meter rail;
(ii) concrete sleepers with a density of 1,357 sleepers per km orsteel sleepers with a density of 1,500 sleepers per km; and
(iii) 1.0 to 1.2 m3 of stone ballast per meter.
These new specifications are reasonable for welded track with an axle load ofabout 15 tons (locomotives) and traffic conditions prevailing in the IvoryCoast during the next decade.
Note: Ran is now considering the possibility of adopting wooden sleepersfor the future track relaying in the Ivory Coast. (In Upper Volta, RAN isreluctant to do so because of the existence of numerous termites in this area).Wooden sleepers would be either procured locally or imported from neighboringcountries if not available in the Ivory Coast.
9. 65% of the track is continuously welded and the welding program isgoing on at a rate which is expected to be about 40 km per year. It shouldbe noted that the welding of old rails, while it improves momentarily thetrack condition by removing the bad joints, can cause an epidemic of railbreakages as has been experienced on a 30-km section in Upper Volta betweenthe border and Banfora. It is most likely to occur on sections like Bouake-Tafire where, on some stretches, rails have been welded to reduce the main-tenance and repair burden.
ANNEX 3Page 4
10. A program is being considered to increase the capacity of thebridges in Upper Volta with FED financing (CFAF 500 million or US$2.0 mil-
lion). This program will give all the bridges of the system the same
standards (test load: 20-ton axle). Such reinforcement has already been
completed on the bridges in the Ivory Coast.
B. Signalling and Telecommunications
11. RAN ensures safety of operations by the classical telephone block
system. This causes delays due to the exchange of telephone messages between
the stations and the train dispatcher, messages which have to be delivered
against receipt to the train or railcar driver. As long as traffic is at a
low level this system is safe and works properly. On the busiest sections of
the line, however, additional delays are encountered because of the frequent
meetings of trains. The open-wire telephone lines, with their well-known
limitations and shortcomings despite the utilization of a frequency carrier
system, supplemented by point-by-point radio links between Ouagadougou,Bobo-Dioulasso and Abidjan, is presently RAN's basic communication system.RAN is considering a new radio link which will enable the dispatcher to talk
directly to the drivers and has called for bids for such equipment to be
financed out of its own budget.
12. The elementary signalling system is appropriate to present traffic
level.
C. Motive Power and Rolling Stock
13. The main-line locomotive fleet is fully dieselized and totals 53units. The overall situation of the motive power is not satisfactory. Thetwo old classes of locomotives, types CC 1000 and CC 1500 (21 and 15 years old
respectively), still provide good service but at large expenditures of man-
power due to the lack of available spare parts which are no longer manufac-
tured. The CC 2400 class (8 to Il years old) is ill-designed, highly un-
reliable and costly to maintain. The newer BB-B 1800 class, after an initial
period of trouble, appears to have almost overcome the prototype stage,following numerous modifications particularly of the diesel engine.
14. The fleet of diesel motor-units for railcars consists of 25 units,including eight new ZE 200 class units out of an order of 13 units presently
being delivered. Eight units of classes ZE 130-ZE 140 are more than 14 yearsold and the six units of the ZE 150 class are more than 10 years old. These14 units of limited traction capacity (450-550 HP) will be written off grad-ually between 1977 and 1982 and replaced by ZE 200 motor-units (925 HP). RANrecently ordered an additional series of six such units (CFAF 1,500 million orUS$6.1 million) to be delivered in 1977-1978.
15. Shunters. RAN uses 29 shunters, among which 18 are low-power engines13 to 21 years old. These latter are expected to be written off by 1981-
1982. The Il others, 400-HP engines, were put into service in the years
1970-1974. RAN's investment plan provides for the purchase of three 750-HP
ANNEX 3Page 5
and 20 450-HP shunters to replace the obsolete units. Old main-line locomo-tives will provide shunting service and service train hauling after withdrawalfrom mainline, long distance service. RAN intends to postpone this investmentbeyond 1980, if possible.
16. The fleet of passenger coaches is composed of 127 vehicles of which109 are 2nd class coaches. Four first class and five second class coaches wererecently scrapped (October 1976). It is expected that Il additional secondclass passenger coaches will be withdrawn from long distance service duringthe period 1979-1985.
17. The total number of freight cars in RAN's fleet was 1,216 atthe end of September 1976. The breakdown per category with the forecastsof writing off are given below:
(i) Cattle traffic: 119 out of a total of 135 cars are more than34 years old and will be gradually written off during the period1977-1979;
(ii) Mixed traffic (cattle and general cargo): 70 cars are new(1973);
(iii) Box cars for general cargo: 456 box cars are presently inservice. Among them, 143 cars are more than 26 years old,and it is expected that they will be gradually written offduring the period 1979-1982;
(iv) Gondolas: 209 existing gondolas, of which 82 are more than30 years old and will be withdrawn from commercial servicebefore 1980-1981;
(v) Flat cars: 19 cars of which 49% have 30 years of service;
(vi) Leased cars: 27 cars are leased to commercial firms (5 boxcars, 2 flat cars and 20 tank-cars). Two flat cars areover-aged;
(vii) Hopper cars and service freight cars: The hopper car andservice car fleets are composed of 128 vehicles (61 ballasthopper cars and 16 fuel tank cars are used for rather regulartraffic). Seventeen service cars are overaged and will bereplaced by commercial freight cars withdrawn from activecommercial service if and when needed.
18. There are 13 service coaches in the fleet. The utilization of thesevehicles is rather low and no writing-off is expected within the next fewyears. In addition there are 114 tank-cars owned by the petroleum companiesand, except for 17 vehicles which are 22-24 years old, these tank-cars arerelatively recent.
ANNEX 3Page 6
19. The composition of RAN's fleet is shown in the table attachedto this Annex together with the units on order. Delivery of five additionalBB-B 1800 mainline locomotives (EIB financing) was due at the end of 1976 orearly in 1977. Out of a total of 15 motor-units for diesel railcars of thenew class ZE 200, eight have been delivered and seven will be delivered in1977. Twenty-eight passenger coaches, two dining cars and two baggage vansprocured under an ADB loan will be delivered from end 1976 till early 1978.Thirty stainless steel passenger coaches and five dining cars for expressrailcars (RGL) are being delivered. No freight cars are on order.
ANNEX 3
Table 1Page 1
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
RAN Motive Power and Rolling Stock
1. Motive Power
1.1 Locomotives Existing (Delivery) On order (Expected delivery)
CC 1000 18 (1956)CC 1500 8 (1962)CC 2400 5 (1966-1968)BB 1800 1/ 22 (1971-1977)
Total 53
1.2 Rail Cars (motor units)
ZE 130- ZE 140 8 (1958-1963)ZE 150 6 (1964-1966)ZE 160 3 (1971)ZE 200 8 (1975-1976)ZE 200 (still to be
delivered) il (1977-1979)
Total 25
1.3 Shunters
AA 40-50 18 (1956-1963)(Poyaud-DieselHydraulic - 150 HP)
AA 90 3 (1970-1972)(CEM - Diesel Electric -
400 HP)AM lC00 8 (1973-1974)(Henshel - DieselHydraulic - 400 HP)
Total 29
1/ The figure includes 5 locomotives of which the delivery was expectedby end-1976 or early 1977.
ANNEX 3
làble 1page 2
2. Rolling Stock (as of September 30, 1976)
2.1 Passenger Coaches Existing (delivery) Recent order (delivery) /
2.1.1 Sleeping cars 3 (1952)2 (1963) (RGL) 5 (1977)4 (1974) (ADB) 4 (1978)
Total sleeping cars 9
2.1.2 lst Class 2 (1952) (RGL) 5 (1976-1977)
1 (1963) (ADB) 4 (1977)
'Total lst Class 3
2.1.3 2nd Class
- For express trains 6 (1952)4 (1963)
- For express trains andrailcars 2 (1952) (ADB) 20 (1977)
20 (1966-1969)12 (1971-1972)24 (1973-1975)
- For railcars only il (1954-1959) (RGL) 20 (1976-1977)
18 (1961-1963)
Total 2nd Class 97
2.1.4 Passenger coaches for sururbantrains
2nd Class 12 (1924-1949)
2.1.5 Dining cars 1 (1946) (RGL) 5 (1977)(ADB) 2 (1978)
2 (1963)3 (1974)
Total Dining Cars 6
2.2 Baggage Vans 4 (1969) (ADB) 2 (1977)8 (1974)
Total Baggage Vans 12
1/ (ADB): African Development Bank Loan(RGL): Express Railcars - Stainless Steel type.
ANNEX 3Table 1page 3
Existing (delivery)
2.3 Service Coaches 12
2.4 Freight Cars (as of October 1, 1976)
2.4.1 Cattle and Multipurpose Wagons
- 12-ton 1 (1925)- 15-ton 2 (1931)- 20-ton 116 (1931-1942)- 30-ton 16 (1963)
- 35-ton 70 (1973) (multipurpose freight cars)
Total cattle and multipurposewagons 205
2.4.2 Box Cars
- 30-ton 8 (1946)- 30-ton 135 (1950)- 30-ton 65 (1956)- 35-ton 65 (1961)- 35-ton 109 (1963-1966)- 35-ton 85 (1969)
Total Box Cars 467 1/
2.4.3 Gondolas
- 10-ton 1 (1949)- 20-ton 75 (1924-1940)- 30-ton 6 (1946)- 35-ton 57 (1963-1970)- 35-ton 40 (1971)- 35-ton 30 (1974)
Total Gondolas 209
2.3.4 Flat Cars and AutomobileCarriers 95 ( < 1947)
96 (1948-1975)
191
2.3.5 Hopper cars and ServiceFreight Cars 128 (1917-1971)
2.3.6 Leased Cars 27
TOTAL: 1227 1/ YJ
1/ Some of the box-cars damaged by fire in Ouagadougou are expected to be written off,réducing the number of box cars to 456 and the total number of freight cars to 1,216.
2/ Privately owned tank cars (114, 1952-1975) are not included.
ANNEX 4Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Operational Plan of Action
1. A draft operational plan of action was established by the missionand discussed in detail with RAN's management during the appraisal mission.This plan of action was translated into operational targets incorporatedin a table handed over to the railway management who agreed on the proposedtargets.
2. The target figures presented in the attached tables have beenreviewed and/or completed in light of subsequent information received oranalyses made by the mission. Final agreement on these targets has beenreached during negotiations. These targets are demanding but consideredas achievable. They cannot be achieved, however, without considerable effortby RAN's top management and departmental managerial staff, supported by theConsulting.Services, Training and Technical Assistance programs included inthe project.
3. In brief, the .operational plan of action is aimed at:
(i) 'obtaining the best possible output from RAN's equipment,mainly motive power and rolling stock in terms of:
locomotive, passenger coach and freight car. availability;average net load per freight car;
- average gross load per train or locomotive;- turnaround time of rolling stock; and- average daily mileage of motive power and.
freight cars;
(ii) minimizing the maintenance and repair costs of equipmentby both improving productivity in the workshops andreducing the number of accidents; and
(iii) improving the overall productivity of the railway staff.
If improvement can be achieved in these areas, they will provide savings whichcan improve substantially the financial position of the railway.
4. The first phase of the studies to be executed by the consultants incharge of the Management and Operations Consulting Services will be theidentification of problems, the formulation of recommendations, and thepreparation of a plan of action for the implementation of these recommenda-tions. The final goal being to improve the quality of service, particularattention has to be devoted to balanced operational plans for carrying both
ANNEX 4Page 2
passenger traffic and the major commodities transported by the railway
(cement, petroleum and sugar traffic), where the largest growth is expected,with the object of having services with attractive characteristics. The
elaboration of these balanced plans of transport is, therefore, a critical
part of the study phase of the Management and Operations Consulting Services,because good transport plans will have a direct impact on the efficiency ofthe whole system. It has been agreed that these transport plans will be
established and furnished to the Bank for its review and comments, not laterthan September 30, 1978.
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA
REGIE ABIDJAN-NIGER
FREIGHT TRAFFIC AND OPERATIONAL TARGETS
Ob je ct ives
Description of Factors 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Remarks
A. FREIGHT TRAFFIC TARGETS(million net ton-km) 560 610 660 710 750 Excluding service traffic and
transportation of emptyB. OPERATIONAL TARGETS containers and tank cars.
1. Number of mainline locomotivesperforming long-distanceservice (as of December 31)
CC1o0o 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 12 (4) (2) 0CC1500 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 (4) (2) 0CC2400 1/ 3/ 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 (3) 0 0 0 0B-BB 1800 -/3 _ 2 6 6 8 10 22 22 31 40 43 46
Total 34 36 40 40 41 41 53 51 51 48 47 46
2. Availability of mainlinelocomotives (%) 2/
CC1000 90.5 80.2 95.0 78.1 87.0 77.8 73 75 75 -- -- --
CC1500 84.8 82.9 80.7 76.2 44.4 62.5 63.5 65 70 -- -- --
CC2400 72.3 76.6 61.3 55.2 68.5 20.0 28.8 -- -- -- -- --
B-BB 1800 -- 86.3 92.3 63.2 79.4 58.8 65.1 75 77 80 81 82
3. Average gross load per All trains except expresslocomotive 4/ 521 524 532 491 471 458 (419) 500 550 600 600 600 trains.
4. Average monthly mileage ofthe B-BB 1800 locomotives(or equivalent future loco-motives) (km) 5/ -- N.A. 11483 10706 7506 7394 7767 7600 7800 7900 8000 8000 1972-73, express trains only
5. Total annual mileage of Only 1978-82 figuresmainline locomotives enmt 98 fges(1000 km) 6/ 2779 2922 3170 3395 3179 2946 (3200) 4200 4000 3950 4200 4400 oeftrmafic fonecasts.
>4
Objectives
Description of Factors 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
6. Average mileage per mainline
locomotive breakdown (km)B-BB 1800 -- N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 19000 21748 30000 40000 50000- 60000 65000
All locomotives N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 12650 12564 -- -- -- --
7. Rolling stock availability (%)Freight cars (average) 96 96 96 98 97 90 94 96 96 96 96 96
Passenger coaches (2nd class) 90 90 95 80 90 83 81 95 95 95 95 95
8. Turnaround time of freight cars
(days) 7/
Cattle wagons 10.1 13.4 16.2 il 10 9 9 9
Multi-purpose wagons 17 16 15 15 15
Box cars (ordinary) 10.1 13.9 16.6 il 10 9.5 9 9
Gondolas il 6 6 6 6 6
Tank cars 15 14.7 15.2 il il 10 9 9
9. Average daily mileage of freightcars (km) 61.5 63.7 78.9 86.5 79.1 59.9 81.4 82 82 85 87 90
10. Average load of freight cars (ton)
Cattle wagons N.A. N.A. N.A. 5.97 6.86 6.86 N.A. 9 9 9 9 9.5
Box cars (northbound) N.A. N.A. N.A. 19.79 22.04 20.21 N.A. 21 21.8 22.4 22.4 22.4
Box cars (southbound) N.A. N.A. N.A. 16.45 19.78 15.34 16.5 16.5 17 17 17
All freight cars 16.1 17.3 18 19.1 18.5 19.8 20.2 20.5 21 21 21 21.5
11. Average daily mileage (km)
2nd class passenger coaches and
railcar trailers 301 285 289 283 289 329 N.A. 335 350 375 390 400
2nd class passenger coaches
included in the express trains 8/ N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 248 N.A. 300 400 500 550 600
12. Staff 9/ 4143 4230 4429 4547 4572 4892 5039 5200 5240 5240 5340 5440
M1a-x
ANNEX 4Page 5
Notes
The figures between brackets are either tentative or subjectto further correction.
1/ B-BB 1,800 or future equivalent locomotives.
2/ Sources: RAN's Annual Reports for 1970-1974;MP&RS Department for 1975;Sampling made by Bank's Mission for 1976
The availability factor referred to is the Technical AvailabilityFactor (100-Immobilization percentage).
3/ 5 Locomotives scheduled for delivery end-1976 or early 1977 includedin the 1976 figure.
4/ 1970-1976 = Source: RAN's Operations Department.
1978-1979 = Overall objectives for the ratio (Total Annual Gross TonKilometers/Total Annual Freight and Service Train Kilometers).
The objectives for long distance freight trains should be1,000 Gross Tons/Locomotive for northbound traffic and700 Gross Tons/Locomotive for southbound traffic providingan average gross load of the order of magnitude of 850 tons.
5/ 1972-1973 High figures that can be explained by the fact that theB-BB 1,800 locomotives were utilized only for expresstrains (passenger trains).
6/ 1970-1975 = Source: RAN's Annual Reports--Table A--MP&RS DepartmentSection of the Annual Report.
7/ Figures evaluated by Bank's mission--statistics and most of data neededfor this particular point are not maintained by RAN.
Turnaround time defined as time elapsed between two consecutive loadings(predominant traffic).
8/ Target determined assuming (i) one daily express train with 12 secondclass coaches in each express train; (ii) 25% of additional vehiclesas reserve; and (iii) time allocated for current maintenance between roundtrips Abidjan-Ouagadougou-Abidjan: 7 hours (new maintenance facilities).
9/ - The figures include technical assistance and both permanent andtemporary staff for the operations but exclude temporary staffassigned to investment programs (about 800 workers in 1976).
ANNEX 4Page 6
- Staff of SWLHT is included from 1971, when RAN took over thisservice previously managed by CIWL (Compagnie Internationale desWagons Lits). From 1976, the figures also include permanent staffof SEGI (RAN's quarry producing stone ballast in the Ivory Coast)with about 70 workers.
- 1970-1975 figures represent staff as of December 31 (RAN's annualreports).
- 1976: actual number of staff as of September 30, 1976 (Source:RAN's Finance Department).
- From 1971 to 1976, the breakdown of staff numbers was the following:
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 (Sept.30)
Operations Department 816 820 869 916 956 1050Motive Power and Rolling
Stock Department 1535 1632 1661 1612 1787 1750Track and Works Department
and Telecom-Signalling 1375 1298 1287 1250 1246 1350Civil Works Department 48 58 72 72 87 218Administration 271 389 430 431 534 460SWLHT 105 153 219 219 211 272Technical Assistance 80 79 75 72 71 64
Total 4230 4429 4547 4572 4892 5164
ANNEX 5Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Passenger Traffic
Past Traffic
1. Table I gives the historical traffic volumes for the period 1960-1975. The time series for the number of passengers presents a clear lineartrend with an average annual increase of 86,795 passengers (least squaresestimate). It represents an increase of 2.9% from the 1975 traffic level.Passenger traffic volumes expressed in passenger-km increased much morerapidly. The growth of pass-km corresponds to an increasing share of long-distance traffic generated predominantly by migrant workers from Upper Volta.The economic recession in the Ivory Coast in 1974/75 apparently interruptedthe otherwise continuous increase of migrating labor.
2. The 1960-1975 period was characterized by an increase in averagetravel distance from 144 km in 1960 to 315 km in 1975. The interstate traffichas grown at a faster pace than Ivorian domestic traffic. Simultaneously,there has been a shift toward longer journeys in the latter traffie as theshare of road transport increased for short trips following improvements inroad infrastructure.
3. Table II distinguishes three components in RAN's passenger traffie:domestic traffic of the Ivory Coast, domestic traffic of Upper Volta and in-terstate traffic. These statistics, provided by RAN's computer center, donot exist for the years preceeding 1973. They cover only journeys for whichtickets are purchased in railway stations (i.e. 93.7% on average of totaltraffic). They show that almost two thirds of RAN's passenger traffic volume(64.7% between 1973 and 1976) are generated by interstate traffic. As thepercentage of first-class passengers in interstate traffic is low (2.6%), thesecond-class interstate traffic accounts for 63% of RAN's total passengertraffic expressed in pass-km the period 1973-1976 and for 67% at the end ofthis period.
4. On the average 96.2% of the passenger traffic volume in passenger-km took place in second class during the period 1970-1975 (94.2% in numberof passengers). Thus, the distinction between first and second classes isnot significant for traffie analysis and revenue calculation.
Future Traffic
5. The population growth of the Ivory Coast and Upper Volta and thefast pace of the Ivorian economic development are the two major factors
ANNEX 5Page 2
responsible for the growth of RAN's passenger traffic. The rapid economicgrowth of the Ivory Coast has created an important demand for labor, mostlyunskilled. It has generated both domestic traffic within the Ivory Coastand, to an even larger extent, interstate traffic. About two-thirds of RAN'straffic volume in pass-km is presently due to Upper Voltan migrant workersseeking employment in the Ivory Coast and visiting or returning to their homecountry.
6. To capture these two effects, a linear regression model using asindependent variables the combined populations of the Ivory Coast andUpper Volta ("POP") and the Ivorian Gross Domestic Product ("GDP") in 1973constant prices has been applied; it established the following relationships(least square estimates) with P-KM as the traffic volume in pass-km and P,the number of passengers:
2P-KM (million) = 614.5 + 1.07 GDP + .075 POP (R = .94)
2P ('000) = 542.1 + 1.16 GDP + .144 POP (R = .94)
The preceeding regressions are a good representation of the forces at playand incorporate the major causalities which are known to generate the trafficdemand.
7. For forecasting purposes, a rate of growth of 6% is assumedfor the Ivorian GDP until 1980 and a rather conservative rate of 4% there-after. Increases in resident population are based on the trend of recentyears: 3% for the Ivory Coast and 1.2% for Upper Volta. These estimatesassume continuing emigration from Upper Volta to the Ivory Coast. Basedon these assumptions and the above equations, the following results havebeen obtained for the forecast period:
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Pass-km(million) 1090 1142 1213 1288 1348 1411 1476 1543 1612
Passengers('000) 3169 3243 3340 3441 3527 3616 3707 3802 3899
8. The above figures must be complemented by accounting for the impactof faster and more comfortable additional service on the Abidjan-Ouagadougouand Abidjan-Bouake routes. RAN is presently introducing this service usingnew rolling stock and intends to attract a wealthier clientele looking forcomfort, safety and time-savings when choosing a mode of transport. This newservice, for which RAN will probably charge a surtax of about 20%, is expectedto reduce travel times between Abidjan and Ouagadougou from 27 to 21 hours and
ANNEX 5Page 3
between Abidjan and Bouake from seven to five hours. The impact of this newservice is difficult to estimate as no market survey has been made. Thereare, however, a number of factors which tend to reduce its impact, includingthe increased level of competition from road and air transport when cateringfor middle- and high-income customers and the RAN's difficulty to consistentlyprovide the high quality of service necessary to attract and retain suchcustomers. Given these uncertainties, the expected incremental traffic dueto the new service has been kept at a conservative level:
1977 1978 1979 1980 onwards
Incremental p-km(million) 25 25 30 36
9. The passenger traffic forecast given in Table III consists ofthe aggregate of the figures in the two above tables. It corresponds toan average increase of 70 million pass-km/year (or 5.7% p.a.) and 94,400passengers/year (or 2.8% p.a.). Even though the forecasts are derivedfrom expected Ivorian economic and regional population growth and not fromextrapolation of past trends, they appear consistent with the historicaltrend (6.7% and 2.9% respectively at 1975 levels).
10. During the last three years 28% of RAN passengers have used thestretch Bouake-Petionara which will be realigned under the proposed project.There is a long-term tendency for this percentage to increase since long-distance traffic prevails on this section and since this type of trafficwill continue to increase its share of total traffic. For the presentanalysis it has nevertheless been assumed that the 28% ratio will remainconstant over the period 1976-85.
RAN
First Railway Project
Passenger Traffic 1960-1975
1960 1964 1966 1967 1968 1969 197u 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
Passenger-km (mil.) 219 469 517 478 541 522 626 701 777 883 918 946Passengers ('000) 1,524 2,202 2,370 2,236 2,509 2,478 2,565 2,630 2,595 2,827 2,931 3,006Mean distance (km) 143.7 213 218.1 213.8 215.6 210.7 244.1 266.5 299.4 312.3 313.2 314.7
M t
ŒCwfD X<
F- vn
ANNEX 5Table 2
DOMESTIC AND INTERSTATE COMPONENTS OF RAN PASSENGER TRAFFIC 1/
19761973 1974 1975 (Jan-May) Average
Ivory Coast: Number of passengers 1,657,298 1,686,785 1,754,730 751,110
Mean distance (km) 140 146 154 143
Passenger-km ('000s) 233,560 247,755 270,362 108,016
Upper Volta: Number of passengers 308,189 394,078 398,400 191,192
Mean distance (km) 177 174 172 170
Passenger-km ('000s) 54,840 68,951 68,551 32,532
Interstate: Number of passengers 689,204 697,474 678,493 375,853
Mean distance (km) 781 789 801 808
Passenger-km ('000s) 538,936 550,423 543,877 303,763
TOTAL: Number of passengers 2,654,691 2,778,337 2,831,623 1,318,155
Mean distance (km) 311 311 311 337
Passenger-km ('000S) 827,337 865,129 882,792 444,311
Interstate p-km/Total p-km 65.1% 63.6% 61.6% 68.4% 64.7%
Total passenger-km (million) 883 918 946 n.a.
% of p-km covered by this statistic 93.7% 94.2% 93.3% n.a. 93.7%
2nd class interstate p-km ('000s) 525,823 536,006 527,011 297,353
2nd class interstate p-km/Total p-km 63.6% 62% 59.7% 66.9%` 63%
Interstate lst class p-km/lnterstate p-km 2.4% 2.7% 3.1% 2.1% 2.6%
1/ Including only trips for which tickets have been sold in the railway stations, ratherthan in the train.
RAN
First Railway Project
Passenger Traffic Forecasts 1976-1985
1975 19761/ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
A. Total Traffic
Pass-km (million) 946 1040 1115 1168 1244 1324 1384 -1447 1511 1578 1647
Passengers ('000) 3006 3123 3241 3279 3383 3492 3578 3666 3758 3853 3950
Mean distance (km) 315 333 344 356 368 379 387 395 402 410 417
B. Bouaké-PétionaraTraffic
Passengers ('000) 842 864 892 918 943 967 989 1011 1052 1079 1106
1/ Based on actual traffic January to November 1976.
Ft3 PM >
ANNEX 6Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
APPRAISAL OF A REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Freight Traffic Forecast
1. The forecasts focus on the individual projections of the goodsand commodities responsible for the bulk of the railway freight traffic.These forecasts assume a reasonable level of operational efficiency in railservice. They are the result of a dynamic interaction between RAN's market-ing strategy and the demand for transport by potential customers, takinginto account keen competition with road transport.
2. The RAN's comparative advantage lies in carrying at relatively lowcosts major commodities and general cargo (possibily containerized) on longhauls between Abidjan and northern Ivory Coast, Upper Volta and southeasternMali. The average haul between 1970 and 1975 increased by 17% (to 700 km),reflecting the loss of much short and medium-haul traffic to road competition.This trend is not expected to continue as the railway has already lost thetraffic most vulnerable to competition.
3. Six commodities form the backbone of RAN freight traffic: cotton,oil-seeds, sugar, petroleum products, cement and fertilizers; their aggregateshare increased from 42% of RAN commercial freight in 1970 to 56% in 1975.RAN plays a secondary role in the transport of the three major Ivorian exportcommodities--timber, coffee and cocoa--due to the roads' comparative advan-tage (good network, short-haul, geographic dispersion). Since the decisionon the Tambao Manganese Project is pending, the forecasts do not includetransporting the corresponding ore.
4. RAN's freight traffic dropped 22% between 1973 to 1975. Poor cropsin the Sahel reduced transport demand, and priority given by RAN to transport-ing food relief gave rise to a deterioration of service for other customerswhich caused traffic to be diverted to the road. Road competition became evenmore acute with an upsurge in the over-capacity of the trucking industry dueto a drop in Ivorian timber exports. The economic recovery and a relativeimprovement in the Sahel situation explain the increase in traffic in 1976.
Road Transport Competition
5. The road system in the region served by RAN is comparatively welldeveloped, particularly in the Ivory Coast. An efficient trucking industryhas been successfully competing for short- and medium-haul cargo. Someadditional road construction in the railway's zone of influence is under-way or being planned.
ANNEX 6Page 2
The Road Links Lome-Ouagadougou and Tema-Ouagadougou
6. The Lome-Ouagadougou road is expected to be asphalted by about1983 (with FED financing). Upper Volta and Togo have taken the necessarysteps to make the 1,000 km Ouagadougou-Lome road a viable although more
costly alternative to the 150-km longer Abidjan-Ouagadougou corridor:
(i) An agreement dated July 1974 allocates two-thirdsof the interstate freight tonnage to Upper Voltantruckers and one-third to the Togolese;
(ii) a freight agency for international trucking has beenestablished in Lome; and
(iii) a 5,000 m2 warehouse for Upper Volta freight has beenfinanced by a US$0.9 million grant from KfW in the portof Lome.
7. Official tariffs for transport between Upper Volta and Togo do not
presently exist. Freight rates were about at CFAF 15 per ton-km for large
trucks in 1976. This is 13% or US$7.60 per ton above Abidjan-Ouagadougou rail
transport costs for general cargo and 27% or US$14 per ton above rail costs
for imported cereals and foodstuff, based on RAN's 1976 tariff and assumingin both cases that rail transport necessitates an additional transshipmentcosting US$3.5 per ton. A 1976 transport sector study for Upper Volta, pre-
pared by French Consultants BCEOM, analyzes total transport costs for general
cargo from f.o.b. Rotterdam or Le Havre to delivery in Ouagadougou on differ-
ent routes. The study concludes that, due to higher sea-freight rates among
other things, shipping through Lome would cost at least $25/ton more thanthrough Abidjan. The cost differential would be substantially higher for mostother commodities and origins and destinations in Upper Volta (other than
Ouagadougou), particularly for the Bobo-Dioulasso region, the origin of about
half of Upper Volta's exports and the final destination of a large part of its
imports. Only for shipments to and from southeastern Upper Volta, close
to the Togolese border, would costs through Abidjan or Lome be roughly equal.However, not much traffic is generated in this part of the country.
8. Future upgrading of the Lome-Ouagadougou link is expected to reducevehicle operating costs and, accordingly, freight rates by about 10%. In the
meantime, railway operating costs will be reduced by about the same percentage
due to expected productivity increases. The existing substantial cost advan-
tage of RAN is, therefore, expected to continue to exist.
9. The cost situation as described above has until now virtually ex-
cluded a commercial use of the Lome-Ouagadougou connection. In 1974, theonly year for which data are available, only about 1,000 tons of general
cargo and about 4,000 tons of relief food was transported from Togo to UpperVolta. In the same year exports from Upper Volta to Togo were limited to some
ANNEX 6Page 3
cattle, about 500 tons of sheep carried by truck and about 1,000 tons ofbovines being driven to Togo. Any major increase in the above transportvolumes would be subject to one or several of the following conditions tomaterialize:
(i) an allocation of traffic to the Lome route by theGovernment of Upper Volta. The Voltaic Ministry ofPublic Works and Transport indicated, however, thatit intends to let the different routes compete witheach other instead of allocating traffic;
(ii) increased traffic generation in southwestern Upper Volta;there are, however, no projects under preparation orimplementation which would generate substantial amountsof traffic; or
(iii) congestion and/or a severe deterioration of quality ofservice in the port of Abidjan and/or on RAN; this,however, would be unexpected in view of the investmentprograms of both the port and the railway. Capacity pro-blems, in particular on the railway, and correspondingdiversion of traffic are expected in the case of massivefood-relief transports.
Future traffic on the Lome-Ouagadougou road is, therefore, expected to belargely limited to some local and regional trade and to possible relief foodtransports.
10. The Tema-Ouagadougou road is asphalted on its entire length, andthe deteriorated section between Kumasi and Accra is being reconstructed orrehabilitated, partly with Bank assistance (First and Second Highway Projects).This connection is of about the same length as the Lome-Ouagadougou road, butvirtually no Upper Volta traffic is carried through the port of Tema due toadministrative and currency difficulties, the difference in language, and highcosts. Trucking costs from Tema to Ouagadougou are somewhat cheaper than fromLome, but handling charges in Tema are substantially higher than in Lome, thusmaking total transport costs through Tema about $15/ton more expensive thanthrough Lome. No diversion from Abidjan to Tema is, therefore, expectèd, withthe possible exception of relief food transports.
11. There is some regional trade between Ghana and Upper Volta, thelatter importing mainly salt and timber and the former vegetables andcattle, the latter being driven. The total volume, excluding cattle,amounted to about 30,000 tons in 1974 and should continue to grow at amoderate pace.
ANNEX 6Page 4
The Abidjan-Ouagadougou Road Link and Road Transport Prices
12. There are three major projects to upgrade the Abidjan-Ouagadougouroad system which parallels the railway:
(a) construction of the 105 km Abidjan-Ndouci expressway,now expected to be completed as far as Sikensi (71 km) by1978;
(b) paving of the 185-km Katiola-Ferkessedougou road by 1978;and
(c) reconstruction to paved standards of the 183-km Banfora-BoboDioulasso-Hounde road in Upper Volta by 1978.
By 1978 this will reduce the non-paved sections of the Abidjan-Oua6adougouroad to 309 km out of a total 1,150 km. It appears realîstic to expectthat these 309 km will also be paved by 1985 or earlier.
13. The above road construction program will further increase roa'competition for RAN and entail some loss of the railway's share of trafficfor those commodities and transport distances where the railway does not havea considerable cost advantage.
14. Official Ivorian road tariffs are mostly within the range CFAF 13to 19 per ton-km (cf. Table VII), but they do not seem to be strictly applieddue to overcapacity in the trucking industry, the high seasonal fluctuation ofthe demand for transport and the laxity of government controls. The truckingindustry is composed of small truckers and well-organized truck companies withfleets of 4 to 40 trucks; the share of the small truckers is about 80% of thefreight volume. Organized trucking companies specialize in regular-scheduledtransport, and the former work more often "a la demande" and try to undercuttheir competitors during the low season. They may have agreements with theclients who helped to finance their trucks. It is likely that organizedtrucking companies charge more than the official tariff because they advancecost-figures of CFAF 20-21 per ton-km. Organized trucking companies reducetheir operations during the four months of the low season when they are indirect competition with the independent ones.
15. No systematic and reliable information on actually charged truckingprices does exist, and even extensive field research would probably not pro-duce reliable data because the parties concerned may not wish to communicatecorrect information. There is, however, some indication that during theseason of high transport demand trucking prices are in the range of officialtariffs, but during the low season they are below official tariffs. TheIvorian Government is now limiting the access of the trucking industry withthe objective of eliminating existing overcapacity by 1979. Actually chargedtrucking prices may thus somewhat increase during the next three years andmay possibly, from about 1980 on, remain throughout each year within therange of official tariffs.
ANNEX 6Page 5
16. Based on RAN's present tariff, the railway's average revenue perton-km is CFAF 8.96 which is substantially below official road tariffs and,probably even in the low season, below actually charged trucking prices.Thus, RAN has a clear cost advantage for long hauls and even for relativelyshort hauls where rail transport does not necessitate additional costs fortransshipment and on-carriage. This is confirmed by the 1974 data forroad transport between Upper Volta and the Ivory Coast. About half of thetotal road transport of 35,000 tons is generated by traders-transporterswho carry their own goods: cola nuts northbound and sheep southbound. Inaddition trucking is used for some imports of construction material2 and someexports of oil seeds.
Abidjan-Mali Traffic
17. About one half of Mali's import and export traffic passes throughAbidjan, and it is expected that the volume of traffic will, with the ex-ception of petroleum products, continue to grow albeit at a much slower ratethan in the past thus ensuring that in the future the majority of Mali'sinternational traffic will be shipped through Dakar. RAN carried about one-third of this traffic (see Table V) until 1974. The sudden drop in 1975 is dueto the tapering off of relief food transports and the virtual closure of theMali-Upper Volta border due to political troubles.
18. Past traffic statistics are not likely to provide sound grounds forextrapolation because of the impact of structural changes in the rail/roadcompetition and in the transport of petroleum products; furthermore, theclosure of the Mali-Upper Volta border brought to an end combined road/railtransports to and from Mali via Bobo-Dioulasso. It is presently not known whenand if the Mali-Upper Volta border will reopen for commercial traffic.
19. RAN plans substantial expansion of its terminal capacity inOuangalodougou (northern Ivory Coast) for warehousing and transshipment ofMali freight. The Ivorian Ministry of Public Works is seriously concernedabout the damage being done to Ivorian roads by the heavy and often over-loaded Malian trucks going to and from Abidjan, and some limitation of theuse of Ivorian roads by Malian trucks may be imposed. RAN's Mali traffic may,therefore, increase in the future much more rapidly than forecast in thisreport should the above developments materialize.
20. The official and generally applied trucking tariff for Malitraffic was in 1975 CFAF 13.5 per ton-km for most northbound traffic andCFAF 6.6 to 9.2 per ton-km for southbound traffic. This makes combinedroad/rail transport via Ouangolodougou more expensive than road transportfor southbound traffic and cheaper for most northbound traffic (see TableVI).
21. The Bank proposes that the financing of the Third Mali RailwayProject will not become effective until the Malian government has taken therequisite steps to ensure that a portion of Mali petroleum product imports
ANNEX 6Page 6
which it controls are transferred from the Abidjan to the Dakar route, thusgiving some basic assurance that the Ilali Railway will remain solvent. Theplanned diversion from the Abidjan to the Dakar route is estimated at 30,000tons p.a., distributed over 2 to 3 years. This diversion corresponds toabout 20% of the average annual growth of road transport of petroleum pro-ducts from Abidjan. Thus, the diversion would only slightly slow down thegrowth of road transport of petroleum products and would not have a mea-surable effect on RAN.
RAN's Marketing Strategy
22. To successfully cope with road competition and maintain its financialviability, RAN needs to implement an adequate marketing strategy, an outlineof which follows:
(i) acquire and maintain a large share of transport volume forthose commodities and destinations for which the railwayhas a substantial cost advantage and can offer a competitivequality of service. To transport other commdodities, therailway should maintain a good working relation with themajor forwarding companies serving the region;
(ii) maintain RAN's leading role in the transport of Upper Volta'sinternational traffic through efficient service and competitivetariffs;
(iii) regain at least RAN's 1974 share of the Mali traffic goingthrough Abidjan, which since then has been diverted to trucks,by appropriate arrangements with the Malian authorities and,if necessary, by adequately equipping RAN's facilities in
Ouangolodougou; and
(iv) gain a major share of the growing container traffic, mostlybeing carried by road, between Abidjan, Upper Volta, Maliand northern Ivory Coast by eliminating inefficiencies throughprocurement of adequate terminal equipment and setting up aseparate organization, possibly as a joint venture with for-warders to provide competitive door-to-door service. TheSociete Africaine de Groupage (SAG), in which RAN's 30% parti-cipation is expected to be increased to a majority, is a likelypartner.
23. The traffic forecasts assume that the implementation of (i), whichis already underway, will be reasonably successful, and that the implementa-tion of (ii) will be equally successful with the exception of commodities suchas metal products, foodstuffs, beverages and various products where the shareof the railway did, or is expected to, decrease due to road competition.Regaining Mali's traffic is still uncertain, and RAN's future role in con-tainer traffic is at an early study phase. Realization of (iii) and (iv)would add some 100,000 tons to RAN's 1980 traffic volume in addition to theforecast.
ANNEX 6Page 7
24. Bovines from Upper Volta to the Ivory Coast are being exclusively
carried by rail due to their high casualty rate during road transport. Since
the cattle population decreased during the drought, both Malian and UpperVoltan authorities are determined to limit their exports till a satisfactory
replenishment level is reached, which could take several years. Should the
restrictions be ineffective, the demand for transport would return sooner to
pre-drought levels.
25. According to the Bank's economic reports, the prospects for cotton
and oil seed production are considered to be quite good, with growth rates
averaging 7% for northern Ivory Coast, Upper Volta and Mali. With anestimated 120,000 tons, 1976 would set a record for the volume of oil seedstransported by rail; this results from the exceptional karite crop and
a recent demand for rail transport of cattle cake, which should remain high.
Oil seed previsions start in 1977 at a conservative level of 102,000 tons and
grow at an average geometric rate of 2.6% till 1985. Karite and groundnuts
yields are highly volatile but have been countercyclical to each other: in
1975 groundnut production was 24,000 tons while karite production was neglig-
ible; in 1976 karite production was 35,000 tons while groundnut productionwas negligible.
Sugar and Molasses
26. Sugar projections include only Ivorian domestic production, in whichthe Ivory Coast government plans to invest heavily during the next ten years
with a production target of 600,000 tons in 1985. A first sugar plant(Ferke I) came on stream in Ferkessedougou in 1975. Forecasts are based on
a substantially slower implementation of the Ivory Coast's sugar plan, as
expected by the Bank's economic mission, and on the Government's decisionto transport the sugar by rail through construction of industrial sidingsto those sugar plants which will be located in the vicinity of the railway,
as it has been done for Ferke I.
Production and Transport of Sugar 1975 - 1985(in '000 tons)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
Ferke I 5 15 30 40 45 50 55 55 55Ferke II 10 20 30 40 55Silue 10 20 40
Total 5 15 30 40 55 70 95 115 150
Rail transportto Abidjan 5 12 24 32 44 56 76 92 120
ANNEX 6Page 8
Sugar production generates a transport demand for molasses which will reachone-third of the sugar volume once the modalities of transport are decidedon and put into operation. Discussions between RAN and companies concernedare underway.
Logs
27. Exploitation of secondary species of Sile began in 1976 and willgenerate for the next ten years a steady shipment of logs to Abidjan whichwill reach 30,000 t/year from 1978 onwards.
Petroleum Products
28. Transport tariffs for petroleum products in the Ivory Coast andUpper Volta are presently CFAF 28 per ton-km by road and about CFAF 12.2 byrail, the latter including CFAF 1 per ton-km for maintenance and depreciationof tank cars owned by the oil companies. The difference of about CFAF 16 perton-km, which probably exceeds the economic cost differential, gives a strongincentive to the oil companies to use the railway. There are four depotsalong the railway: at Bouake, Ferke, Bobo and Ouagadougou. As these depotsare located adjacent to the railway stations, rail transport does not neces-sitate additional transshipment. Almost all traffic to depots north ofBouake goes by rail, and this should remain unchanged. Transport to Bouakeis by road when there is insufficient tank car capacity. Moreover, theIvorian "Caisse de Perequation" reimburses the oil companies for road tran-sport costs to Bouake but not beyond this point, where only RAN's tariff isreimbursed. During negotiations the Ivory Coast Government was asked toanalyze the policy of reimbursing for transport to Bouake more than RAN'stariffs and its possible consequences on an uneconomic allocation of traffic.
29. Recently, the Ivorian and Upper Voltan goveraments reached an agree-ment under which Upper Volta will become a minority shareholder of the govern-ment-owned Societe Ivoirienne de Raffinage (SIR), the refining company inAbidjan. SIR's capacity, presently 2 million tons, is planned to be ex-pandedto 3 million tons by 1980 and beyond that thereafter. It is therefore realis-tic to assume that all Upper Volta's imports of petroleum products willcontinue to come from Abidjan and will be carried by RAN. The same has beenassumed for the Ferkessedougou area. Transports to Bouake will probablycontinue to be partly carried by road, and the conservative assumption wasmade that rail transports for this destination will not increase beyond themoderate 1975 level.
30. Growth of demand is based on the Bank's economic forecasts and agreedupon by representatives of the major oil companies.
ANNEX 6Page 9
Cement
31. RAN's present cement tariff is about CFAF 7.9 per ton-km, about15% above marginal costs and about the same percentage below the railway'stotal costs for carrying this commodity. Road transport prices for cementfluctuate sharply between CFAF 7 and 13 per ton-km as a function of variationsof seasonal transport demand and occasional price competition for return loadsbetween truckers. All cement is transported in bags.
32. The Ivorian cement manufacturers consider this unstable situationunsatisfactory and are reorganizing their distribution system. Specifically,the Societe des Ciments d'Abidjan (SCA), with a current output of 800,000 tonsof cement, 60% of the Ivorian production, constructs warehouses as regionaldistribution centers on railway terrain in Dimbokro, Bouake, Ferkessedougouand Ouangolodougou. Also SCA plans to modernize and extend its wagon loadingfacilities in Abidjan. Negotiations are currently underway with SCA for atransport contract between RAN and SCA bypassing the forwarders. An acceptabletransport contract including adequate arrangements for future increases ofRAN's cement traffic should be presented to the Bank for review by Septembert30, 1977.
33. The forecasts assume that the railway's share of cement transportwill increase considerably following implementation of these arrangements.Conclusion of a similar agreement with the second Ivorian cement producerwould increase RAN's transport volume over the present forecast. In line withSCA's and the Bank's forecasts, an annual increase of demand of transport forcement of 10% in the Ivory Coast and 8% in Upper Volta is expected. Provisionscement transport to Mali are highly tentative given the structural uncertaintyof the Malian traffic. Thus, no significant increase has been assumed.
Metal Products
34. The 1976 estimates are based on a high tonnage actually transportedduring the first eight months. Thereafter, it is assumed that it will parallelthe total transport volume as rail is the cheapest mode of transport for thiscargo which is equally sensitive to transport costs and quality of service.
Fertilizers
35. Fertilizers are a potential growth market for RAN since demand innorthern Ivory Coast, Upper Volta and Mali continues to increase rapidly andsince RAN has a substantial cost advantage over road transport. This isconfirmed by past increases of railway traffic and SIVENG, the distributioncompany of the fertilizer plant. Because the buyer has the choice of the modeof transport, both the quality of the service and transport costs are importantfactors.
Food and Beverages
36. Forecasts of food imports by Upper Volta and Mali are based on theBank's expectation that they will remain more or less at their current level.
ANNEX 6Page 10
The International Food Policy Research Institute, however, foresees a fooddeficit of 4 million tons for the Sahel region in 1985. The impact on thedemand for rail transport may be minimal because, after experiencing the inflexibility of the railway in the early 1970's and delays in shipping urgentcargo, food relief organizations may downplay the importance of cost in thechoice of a mode of transport. For instance, USAID food shipments to UpperVolta will use the Lome-Ouagadougou road link rather than the railway atabout twice the cost.
Miscellaneous
37. Southbound and northbound transport of miscellaneous commoditiesappears sensitive to road competition. This is due to the perceived higherquality of service of road transport and to the comparatively small costadvantage of rail transport. The railway's share of transports will thereforedrop further, rather rapidly until 1980 and somewhat slower thereafter. Thelosses will be heavier for the southbound traffic due to the imbalance ofoverall traffic volumes to and from northern Ivory Coast and Upper Volta,which makes southound cargo particularly attractive for competing truckers.
Conclusion
38. Table I presents the traffic volumes (t and t-km) realized duringthe period 1970-1975. Tables II and III forecast the traffic volumes (t andt-km) until 1985 as analyzed above. A freight traffic of 883 million t-kmand 1.4 million tons is expected for 1985. It corresponds to a growth rate of6.5% based on the 1976 traffic of 504 million t-km. Figures for 1976 are pre-liminary actual data.
39. Table VI details the traffic expected on the stretch Bouake-Tafireuntil 1985. This forecast is based on origin/destination analyses for indi-vidual commodities included in the forecast for RAN's total freight traffic.
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
Appraisal of a Regional Railway Project
Ran Freight Traffic 1970-1975
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975Tons T-Km Tons T-Km Tons T-Km Tons T-Km Tons T-Km Tons T-Km
SouthboundLivestock 32.2 24.3 34.7 28.2 35.5 30 34.6 27.7 34.7 27.8 31.9 27.8Cotton 39.9 25.1 39.8 23.8 45.1 26.5 35.8 25.4 36 23.2 31 17.5Oil seeds 74.9 62.5 55.5 42.8 62.6 46.1 64.8 48.9 56.5 48.9 43.1 31.4SugarMiscellaneous 122.9 33.8 85.6 28 72.5 24.8 53 26.5 43.6 27.2 61.3 34.7Total South- 269.9 145.7 215.6 122.8 215.7 127.4 188.2 128.5 170.8 127.1 167.3 111.4bound
NorthboundPetroleum 113.3 84.5 112.5 87.3 116.6 96.1 98.9 81.1 107 97 109.8 95.2products
Cement 30.9 25.1 55.3 41.3 59.8 42.8 66.3 55.6 66.8 59.7 80.1 62.1Metal pro- 8.1 8.8 7.5 6.7 6.6 6.3 36.7 38.7 26.7 20.2 10.7 8.4ducts
Fertilizers 4.3 3.0 11.1 7.6 17.6 11.0 20.1 12.3 18.8 11.7 28.3 16.4Food and 105.1 63.6 123 92.5 176.8 108.8 162.5 101.3 177.1 113.7 91 57.6beverages
Miscellan- 108.3 62.1 119.5 68.8 116.2 64.5 119.4 62.1 62.5 34.6 48.5 25.6eous
Total North- 370 247.1 428.9 304.2 493.6 329.5 503.9 351.1 458.9 336.9 368.4 265.3bound 4
GRAND TOTAL 639.9 392.8 644.5 427 709.3 456.9 692.1 479.6 629.7 464 535.7 376.7
Service 108.6 9.1 149.9 13.5 156.8 15.5 193.4 16.7 94.6 12 125 15.5traffieandballast
Tons expressed in '000s T-Km expressed in Millions
ANNEX 6Table 2
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
APPRAISAL OF A REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Freight Traffic Forecasts
Tons ('000)
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
Southbound
Livestock 23 25 27 30 35 37 39 44
Cotton 40 45 50 54 58 62 66 77
Oil seeds 120 102 105 107 110 112 115 125
Sugar 14 24 32 44 56 76 92 120
Timber (Logs) 10 20 30 30 30 30 30 30
Molasses 3 4 6 10 19 25 30 40
Miscellaneous 24 26 25 25 25 25 25 25
Total 234 246 275 300 333 367 397 461
Northbound
Petroleum products 118 130 143 157 170 181 193 233
Cement 80 110 140 160 180 200 220 280
Metal products 28.5 30 32 34 35 36 37 40
Fertilizer 40 43 47 52 57 62 65 75
Food and beverage 123 125 125 120 120 120 120 120
Miscellaneous 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 83
Total northbound 453.5 504 555 593 634 673 711 831
Total southboundand northbound 687.5 750 830 893 967 1040 1108 1292
Service & ballast 108 110 150 152 152 155 106 110
Total includingservice & ballast 795.5 860 980 1045 1119 1195 1214 1402
1/ Preliminary actual figures.
ANNEX 6
Table 3
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
APPRAISAL OF A REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Freight Traffic Forecasts
Ton-km (millions)
1976 - 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
Southbound
Livestock 20.0 21.0 22.7 25.2 29.4 31.1 32.8 37.0
Cotton 19.6 22.8 25.0 25.7 29.5 32.0 35.0 41.0
Oil seeds 97.2 82.2 84.3 84.4 86.6 86.8 89.0 94.4
Sugar 7.8 13.4 17.9 24.6 31.4 41.4 49.2 62.6
Timber 1.3 2.5 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Molasses 1.7 2.2 3.4 5.6 10.6 13.6 16.1 20.9
Miscellaneous 8.9 11.2 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.25 12.75 13.0
Total 156.5 155.3 168.0 180.8 203.2 220.9 238.5 272.6
Northbound
Petroleum products 101.7 111.8 123.8 135.5 147.1 158.0 167.9 204.1
Cement 58.2 72.8 87.6 99.8 112.1 124.0 136.0 171.0
Metal products 21.7 24.0 25.6 27.2 28.0 28.8 29.6 32.0
Fertilizer 23.8 25.8 28.7 32.2 35.9 39.1 41.0 47.3
Food and beverage 86.2 82.5 82.5 79.2 79.2 79.2 79.2 79.2
Miscellaneous 44.0 45.6 47.6 49.7 51.8 54.0 55.5 62.25
Total northbound 335.6 362.5 395.8 423.6 454.1 483.1 509.2 595.9
Total southboundand northbound 492.1 517.8 563.8 604.4 657.3 704.0 747.7 868.5
Service & ballast 12.0 11.0 14.0 15.0 15.0 16.0 13.0 14.0
Total includingservice & ballast 504.1 528.8 577.8 619.4 672.3 720.0 760.7 882.5
1/ Preliminary actual data.
ANNEX 6
Table 4
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
APPRAISAL OF A REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
bouaxé-1etionara-Tafiré Traffic Previsions
…----------------…Freight Traffic (Tons '000) -------------------
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
Southbound
Livestock 23.0 25.0 27.0 30.0 35.0 37.0 39.0 44.0
Cotton 30.0 34.0 37.5 41.0 44.0 47.0 51.0 60.0
Oil seeds 120.0 102.0 105.0 107.0 110.0 112.0 115.0 125.0
Sugar 14.0 24.0 32.0 44.0 56.0 76.0 92.0 120.0
Logs - - - - - - -
Molasses 3.0 4.0 6.0 10.0 19.0 25.0 30.0 40.0
Miscellaneous 13.4 15.0 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.6
Total 203.4 204.0 222.0 246.3 278.3 311.6 341.9 404.6
Northbound
Petroleumproducts 108.0 120.0 133.0 147.0 160.0 171.0 183.0 223.0
Cement 60.6 77.9 95.0 108.5 121.9 134.7 147.5 184.8
Metal products 23.5 25.0 27.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 35.0
Fertilizer 30.0 32.2 35.2 39.0 42.8 46.5 48.7 56.25
Food andbeverage 91.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0
Miscellaneous 55.0 57.0 58.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 74.0
Total 368.2 401.1 437.2 473.5 506.7 537.2 567.2 662.1
GRAND TOTAL 571.6 605.1 659.2 719.8 785.0 848.8 909.1 1,066.7
ANNEX 6
Table 5
RAN
First Railway Project
Mali Traffic Carried by RAN
('000 tons)
1973 1974 1975
Northbound:
via Ouangalodougou
Foodstuff 20.0 32.1 7.9
Cement 2.4 - 6.0
Other 11.2 0.7 1.2
Total 33.6 32.8 15.1
via Bobo-Dioulasso
Petroleum products 4.0 7.8 1.1
Foodstuff 11.4 9.2 -
Other - 1.2 -
Total 15.4 18.2 1.1
Total Northbound49.0 51.0 16.2
Southbound (cotton):
via Ouangalodougou 4.5 4.0 4.7
via Bobo-Dioulasso 21.0 21.0 -
Total Southbound 25.5 25.0 4.7
Grand Total
Total Mali Traffic through Abidjan 205 239 242
RAN's Share of Total Traffic 36% 32% 9%
ANNEX 6
Table 6
RAN
First Railway Project
Comparison of Transport Tariffs - Road vs. Rail (in CFAF)
Abidjan-Ouangolodougou
TranshipmentRAN .Cost 1/ Road Difference
Cement 5205 557.5 8181 2418.5
Cereals northbound 6610 557.5 8181 1013.5
Miscellaneous commodities 8088 557.5 8181 _(464.5)
Fertilizer 6124 557.5 8181 1499.5
Cotton fibers 6128 557.5 5575 (1110.5)
Groundnuts 4780 557.5 3400 (1937.5)
1/ "Office National des Transports", Mali, July 1976
ANNEX 6
Table 7
OFFICIAL ROAD TRANSPORT TARIFFS
IN THE IVORY COAST (10/23/76)
Units Minimum Tariff Maximum Tariff(CFAF) (CFAF)
Category A
Cement t-km 10 13
C-.egory B
Coffee, cocoa t-km 17Cargo (volume) m3-km 7 12Cargo (weight) t-km 16 19M5iscellaneous t-km 19 22Empty containers/cartons t-km 12 15
Category C
Chemicals & explosives t-km 30 37
Category D Tariff
Petroleum products:- first 300 km 100 liter-km 2.4 1/- above 300 km 100 liter-km 2.16?!- city delivery 100 liter 81
Category E
Timber for export:- first 200 km t-km 19.2- between 200 and 500 km t-km 16- above 500 km t-km 14.5
Timber for local industry t-km 90% of above tariffs
1/ Approximately CFAF 30/ton-km.2/ Approximately CFAF 27/ton-km.
ANNEX 7Page 1
REGIE ABIDJAN-NIGER
Forecast Disbursements for Investment(including contingencies)
1977-1982(CFAF Million)
GovernmentInvestment Categories 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total contribution
for financing (%)A. Infrastructure-Civil Works
1. General studies 180 160 170 60 60 60 690 -
2. Feasibility studies 1/ 32 34 47 113 -
3. Re-arrangement and extensionof railway maintenancefacilities and marshallingyards 2/ 200 600 600 600 2000 app. 30
4. Rail access to Locodjo portextension 3/ 36 344 344 688 688 2100 100
5. Abidjan-Anyama doubletrack 4/ 25 1130 1130 2285 100
6. Other track doubling betweenAnyama and Bouake 2/ 750 750 1500 3000 100
7. Realignment Dimbokro-Bouake5/ 1334 1334 60
8. Double subgrade Dimbokro-Bouake 5/ 600 150 1860 750 100
9. Realignment Bouake-Petionara1/ 1200 2260 1865 430 5755 60
10. Re-alignment Petionara-Tafire2/ 1930 1930 3860 60
11. Infrastructure and superstruc-ture rehabilitation
(i) works in Upper Volta 1/ 387 714 279 150 - - 1530 60
(îi) track material renewal inthe Ivory Coast 1/ 110 117 135 44 - - 406 60
(iii) replacement of 22 bridgesin Upper Volta 4/ 200 200 100 500 60
(iv) renewal of 50 km of trackin Upper Volta 675 675 1350 60
12. Routine renewal and rehabilita-tion works - Miscellaneous 6/ 465 435 410 480 580 580 2950 60
Sub-total A 4569 5544 4680 3202 5283 5345 28623
ANN»X 7
Page 2
GovernmentInvestment Categories 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total contribution
for financing(%>
B. Management - Consulting ServicesTraining 1/ 90 520 205 42 857
C. Fixed Installations - Buildings-Houses
1. Telecommunications - Signalling 470 110 110 110 60 50 910 602. Buildings 250 300 300 300 300 300 1750
Sub-total C 720 410 410 410 360 350 2660
D. Equipment - Tools - Road Vehicles
1. Track maintenance equipment 1/ 123 130 181 434 60
2. Tools & Other equipment 120 120 120 150 150 150 810
Sub-total D 243 250 301 150 150 150 1244
E. Motive Power
1. Mainline locomotives
1.1 5 locomotives 5/ 7/ 914 9141.2 18 locomotives 1/ 660 1530 858 566 36141.3 Others 440 440 880
2. Railcars
2.1 6 railcars 5/ 822 682 15042.2 Others
- RGL 5/ 7/ 268 268- Renewal 400 400 800
3. Shunters 700 500 1200
Sub-total E 2664 2212 858 966 1140 1340 9180
F. Rolling Stock
1. Passenger coaches and baggage vans
1.1 On order 5/ 7/ 1610 1311 29211.2 Others - - 200 400 200 200 1000
ANNEX 7Page 3
GovernmentInvestment Categories 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total contribution
for financ:n&1(%
2. Box-Cars
2.1 First phase (210) 1/ 710 730 915 402 27572.2 Second phase (130) 1000 1000 2000
3. Others 30 120 120 120 120 510
Sub-total F 2320 2071 1235 922 1320 1320 9188
S U M M A R Y
A. Infrastructure 4569 5544 4680 3202 5283 5°45 28623
B. Management - Consulting ServicesTraining 90 520 205 42 857
C. Fixed Installations - BuildingsBouses 720 410 410 410 360 350 2660
D. Equipment - Tools -Road Vehieles 243 250 301 150 150 150 1244
E. Motive Power 2664 2212 858 966 1140 1340 9180
F. Rolling Stock 2320 2071 1235 922 1320 1320 9188
TOTAL 10606 11007 7689 5692 8253 8505 51752
1/ Items included in the Regional Railway Project.2/ Subject to the findings of feasibility Studies included in the Project.3/ Subject to implementation of port extension and Tambao Manganese Project.4/ Subject to the expected availability of financing from the German Government (Item 5)
or from FED (Item 11 - iii).5/ Contracts already awarded, works underway or equipment being manufactured or
partly delivered.6/ This item includes routine renewal and rehabilitation works such as:
(i) annual replacement of 30 turnouts;(ii) annual renewal of 5 km of track with reballasting;
(iii) annual complementary ballasting;(iv) heavy bridge repairs;(v) annual renewal of sleepers on 20 km in Upper Volta.
7/ Remainder to be paid in the years shown.
ANNEX 8Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Determination of Freight Car Needs, 1977-1985
1. The determination of the need for additional freight cars isdetailed in the attached tables and is based on the following assumptions:
(1) gradual scrapping of the obsolete freight cars, namely,
-- 119 cattle wagons; and
-- 143 box cars;
(2) slight attrition due to accidents or obsolescence ofsome remaining cars;
(3) average payload, a function of the size of the freight carsand based on actual average loads recorded;
(4) availability factor constant (96% for not-too-old cars,92% for old cars);
(5) turnaround time, a function of the utilization and calculatedfrom actual figures for one-way traffic (time elapsed betweentwo successive northbound or southbound loadings);
(6) slight improvement of the turnaround time as a result ofimprovement of the operational efficiency; and
(7) traffic demand forecasts deduced from the generaltraffic forecasts made by the mission, by allocating tothe freight cars of each type, the volume of the commo-dities they usually carry according to RAN's data.
2. The mission analyzed the possible need for additional gondolas andflat cars. The conclusion was that, provided there is an improvement in theirutilization, which has been agreed upon by RAN's management as quite feasible,there is no need for new freight cars of these types. This is subject toreview in case of unexpected development of the traffic. Therefore, onlythe need for cattle wagons, box cars and tank cars is assessed in theattached tables.
ANNEX 8Page 2
Methodology
3. The following methodology has been applied for the determinationof the needs.
Box Cars
(i) Determination of the needs of cattle wagons first,since the multipurpose wagons, which are used for bothcattle traffic and general cargo, have a differentturnaround time according to their utilization (eithergeneral cargo only or mixed traffic--southbound cattleand northbound cargo), Table 1;
(ii) determination of the additional box-cars needed takinginto account the volume carried by the multipurposewagons used for southbound cattle traffic, on thenorthbound return trip to the cattle loading areas.It must be noted that all the new box-cars aresupposed to be of the multipurpose type, Table 2;
(iii) verification of the capacity of the fleet for thesouthbound traffic, Table 3; and
(iv) calculation of the productivity of the new freightcars in terms of ton-km, Table 4 gives a summary ofthe utilization of the new box cars (or multipurposewagons).
Tank Cars
4. The calculation of the total number of additional tank cars neededis shown in Table 5. It must be pointed out that the assumed turnaroundtimes represent a substantial improvement as compared with actual turnaroundtimes of the recent past. This improvement can be achieved by both the in-crease of the RAN's operational efficiency (block trains) and a better orga-nization of the loading and unloading facilities by the petroleum companies.However for the evaluation of the needs, conservative figures havebeen retained for this factor (see footnote 1).
Conclusions
5. The following conclusions can be drawn from the attached tables:
(i) There is an urgent need for 60 box cars to be delivered,if possible, early in 1978; and
(ii) in spite of the fact that scrapping of old box cars hasbeen delayed till 1979, there will probably be a lack oftransport capacity in 1977 (28,000 tons), if all factors
ANNEX 8Page 3
remain constant. If the traffic forecasts made materializein 1978, the additional capacity requirement will be coveredby the 60 new box cars referred to above.
(iii) the number of the tank-cars needed is in accordancewith the planned procurement of new tank-cars by thepetroleum companies (10 in 1977; 14 in 1978; 8 in 1979;and 9 in 1980 - total: 41 in four years).
ANNEX bTable 1
IVORY COAST - UPPER VCLTA - REGIONAL RAILJ:AY PROJECT
CATTLE WAGONS
Needs and Utilization
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
1) Traffic Forecast (1000 T) 25 27 30 35 37 39 44
Transport Capacity of ExistingCattle Wagons
(i) 30-ton wagonsa) number 16 16 16 16 16 15 14
b) turnaround time (days) 12 il 10 9 9 9 9
c) availability (%) 96 96 96 96 96 96 96d) average payload (T) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2) Transport Capacity 1/ (1000 T) 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.4
(ii) 35-ton multipurpose wagonsa) number 70 70 70 70 70 68 66
b) turnaround time (days) 18 17 16 15 15 15 15
c) availability (%) 96 96 96 96 96 96 96
d) average payload (T) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
3) Transport Capacity 1/ (1000 T) 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 15.5 15.1 14.6
(iii) 20-ton wagons (to be written off)a) number 80 60 30 0b) turnaround time (days) 12 il 10
c) availability (%) 92 92 92d) average payload (T) 5.3 5.3 5.3
4) Transport capacity 1/ (1000 T) 11.9 9.7 5.3 0
5) Total transport capacity ofexisting wagons 2/ (1000 T) 28.5 27.5 24.4 20.5 20.5 19.8 19.0
6) Excess (lack) of capacity ofexisting wagons (1000 T) 3.5 0.5 (5.6) (14.5) (16.5) (19.2) (25)
7) Additional 35-ton multipurposewagons needed 3/ - - 27 65 74 87 113
8) Ton-kilometers produced by thenew wagons (million) 5/ - - 4.7 9.9 13.9 16.1 21.0
9) Existing 3 5 -ton multipurpose wagons
utilized for cattle traffic 4/ 51 67 70 70 70 68 66
1/ (a) x 365 x (c) x (d) x i1000 (b) 100
2/ (5) = (2) + (3) + (4)
3/ - (6) x 1000 x (b) x 100 if (6) < 0365 (c) x (d)
4/ [(3) - (6) x 1000 x (b) x 100 if (6) 0; (a), if (6) < O365 (c) x(d)
5/ - (6) x 840 (average distance), if (6) < 01000
ANNEX 8Table 2page 1
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA - REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
BOX CARS
Needs and Utilization
Northbound Traffic 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
1) Traffic Forecast (1000 T) 3441/ 380 402 429 456 481 558
Existing Ordinary Box Cars
2) Number of ordinary cars 456 452 432 368 328 310 302
3) Total capacity (T) 14893 14773 14173 12253 10933 10473 10233
4) Turnaround time (days) 2/ 12 il 10 9.5 9.5 9 9
5) Availability (%) 96 96 96 96 96 96 96
6) Transport capacity of existingbox cars (1000 T) 278 301 318 289 258 261 255(3) x 22.4 x 365 x (5)
1000 35 (4) 100
7) Excess (Lack) of capacity (66) (79) (84) (140) (198) (220) (303)(7) -= (6) - (1) (1000 T)
Existing Multipurpose Wagons
8) Number of cars 70 70 70 70 70 68 66
9) Total capacity (T) 2450 2450 2450 2450 2450 2380 2310
10) Turnaround time (days) 2/ 16 17 16 15 15 15 15
11) Availability (%) 96 96 96 96 96 96 96
12) Transport capacity of existingmultipurpose wagons (1000 T) 38 36 38 41 41 40 39(9) x 25 x 365 x Ç1000 35 (10) 100
New Multipurpose Wagons Utilizedfor Mixed Transport (Cattle andvarious Northbound Traffic)
13) Number of cars - - 27 65 74 87 113
14) Turnaround time (days) 2/ _ _ 16 15 15 15 15
15) Availability (%) - - 96 96 96 96 96
1/ Forecast based on demand; realized traffic expected to be somewhat lower due to box carscapacity constraint.
2/ Turnaround time defined as time elansed between 2 conrecutive northboun' loadings.
ANNEX 8Table 2Page 2
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
16) Average payload (T) - - 25 25 25 25 25
17) Transport capacity of newmultipurpose wagons (1000 T) - - 15 38 43 51 66(13) x 365 x (15) x (16)1000 (14) 100
18) Net excess (Lack) of capacity fornew ordinary box cars (28) (43) (31) (61) (114) (129) (198)(7) +(12) +(17) (1000 T)
19) Additional new box cars needed-(18) x 1000 x (4) x 100 43 60 39 74 138 148 227
365 (5) x 22.4if (18) < O
20) Total new box cars needed(13) + (19) 43 60 66 139 212 235 340
21) Average distance (km) 650 650 650 650 650 650 650
22) Tonnage (to be carried) carried byNew wagons (1000 T) (28) 43 46 99 157 180 264(17) - (18)if (18) < 0
23) Ton-kilometers (to be produced)produced by the new wagons (million)(22) x (21) (18.2) 28.0 29.9 64.3 102.1 117 171.61000
ANNEX 8Table 3
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA - REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
BOX CARS
Needs and Utilization
Southbound Traffic 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
General Cargo
1) Traffic Forecast (1000 T) 217 232 250 269 295 318 367
Existing Ordinary Box Cars
2) Number of cars 456 452 432 368 328 310 302
3) Total capacity (T) 14893 14773 14173 12253 10933 10473 10233
4) Turnaround time (days) 12 il 10 9.5 9.5 9 9
5) Availability (%) 96 96 96 96 96 96 96
6) Transport capacity of the existingordinary box cars (1000 T) 220 238 251 228 204 206 201
(3) x 16.45 x 365 x (5)1000 32.65 (4) 100
7) Excess (lack) of capacity (1000 T) 3 6 1 (41) (91) (112) (166)(6) - (1)
New box cars available for south-bound general cargo
8) Number of new box cars availablefor southbound traffic - 60 39 74 138 148 227
9) Transport capacity (1000 T)(8) x 35 x 365 x (5) x 16.45 - 34 24 48 90 102 156
1000 32.55 (4) 100
10) Net excess (lack) of capacity(1000 T) 3 40 25 7 (1) (10) (10)
(7) + (9)
11) Utilized capacity (%)(1) if (10) >. O 99 85 91 97 100 100 100
(6) + (9)100% if (10) 1
12) Average distance (km) 671 665 648 651 637 633 621
13) Utilized capacity in ton-kilometers(million)(9) x (11) x (12) x 1 - 19.2 14.2 30.3 57.3 64.6 96.9
100 1000
ANNEX 8
Table 4
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA - REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Summary of Utilization of the New Freight Cars
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
1) New freight cars - averageavailable number for the yearshown 60 66 139 212 235 340
2) Number to be ordered in year 60 150 - 130 - -shown (early 77)
3) Expected delivery 60 80 70 25 75 30 (1983)
4) Ton-kilometers produced by newcars included in the project 1/(i) a) cattle traffic - - 4.7 9.9 13.8 14.4 13.0
b) return traffic (N)of cattle wagons - - 9.8 24.7 27.8 29.7 26.5
(ii) General cargo (N) - 28.0 20.1 39.6 73.3 74.9 79.5(S) - 19.2 14.2 30.3 56.8 57.7 59.9
5) Ton-lilometers produced by theadditional freight cars (130) 1/(i) a) cattle traffic - - - - 0.1 1.7 8.0
b) return traffic (N)of cattle wagons - - - - 0.2 3.5 16.4
(ii) General cargo (N) - - - - 0.8 8.9 49.2(S) - - - - 0.5 6.9 37.0
1/ Million of Ton-Kilometers
Table 5
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA - REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
TANK CARS
Needs and Utilization
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
1) Traffic Forecast (1000 T) 130 143 157 170 181 193 233
Existing tank cars
a) Number 134 134 134 133 132 131 130b) Turnaround time (days) 1/ 12 12 12 11.5 il 10 9c) Load factor: 0.93d) Availability: 0.96d) Average unit capacity (T) 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.4 33.4
2) Transport capacity of existingcars (1000 T) 121 121 121 126 130 143 157(a) x 365 x (c) x (d) x (e)
1000 (b)
3) Excess (Lack) of capacity(2) - (1) (1000 T) (9) (22) (36) (46) (51) (60) (76)
4) New tank cars needed 2/- (3) x 1000 x (b) x 1 8 20 33 41 43 46 52
365 (c)x(d)x 40if (3)< 0
5) Ton-kilometers (million) producedby 41 new tank-cars to bedelivered between 1977-1980Average distance: 865 km 7.8 19.0 31.1 39,8 42.1 46.3 51.8
1/ The figures utilized for the assessement of the needs are different from thefigures given in the operational plan of action as targets for the turnaround timeof tank-cars. These latter figures reflect the forecast turnaround time asexpected by RAN's Operations Departirent following the planned transport schemefor petroleum products between Abidjan and Ouagadougou (block trains). As theresults are highly sensitive to the turnaround time, which applies to the wholefleet, it is advisable to take a less optimistic approach in the evaluation ofthe needs.
2/ 40-ton tank-cars.
ANNEX 9Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Mainline Locomotive Needs in 1980
1. The evaluation of the number of new locomotives needed in RAN'smainline locomotive fleet is based on the following assumptions:
(i) The recommendations of the mission regarding thescrapping of the 5 CC 2400 locomotives and the gradualwithdrawal from long distance service of the 26 CC 1000and CC 1500 locomotives by 1980 will be implemented;
(ii) the profile characteristics are assumed uniform and theaverage maximum load of the mainline locomotives inservice in 1980 will be 1,000 gross tons. A correctionwill be applied to take into account the necessarydouble-headings where the line will not present theuniform characteristics in 1980 (presumably ABIDJAN-LE BANCO and PETIONARA-TAFIRE sections);
(iii) for the present calculation, an average practical loadper locomotive of 750 gross tons will be taken (75% ofthe average maximum load) which is probably a ratherconservative hypothesis;
(iv) the ratio gross tonnage/net tonnage for the freighttraffic is kept at its present average value of 2.20;
(v) an overall utilization factor of 67%, which combines an80% technical availability of the locomotives with an 85%utilization factor of the available motive power by theOperations Department, has been estimated as achieveable;
(vi) the service traffic will be hauled by old mainline loco-motives withdrawn from long distance service;
(vii) all mainline locomotives will have a net power outputthat is superior or equal to the actual net power outputof the existing B-BB 1800 locomotive; and
(viii) a tentative traffic pattern appropriate to the trafficdemand of 1980 has been set-up, the present time tablebeing taken as a model. This pattern includes thefollowing daily freight trains:
ANNEX 9Page 2
1 block train ABIDJAN-OUAGADOUGOU-ABIDJAN:
1 train ABIDJAN-BOBO DIOULASSO-OUAGADOUGOU and
return;
1 train ABIDJAN-BOUAKE-DIMBOKRO;
1 train DIMBOKRO-FERKESSEDOUGOU;
-- 1 train FERKESSEDOUGOU-ABIDJAN;
-- 1 train ABIDJAN-FERKESSEDOUGOU and return; and
-- 2 mixed trains ABIDJAN-DIMBOKRO and return (300gross tons of commercial freight).
2. On the basis of the freight traffic pattern defined above, allowing
some time for the routine maintenance to be performed at the ABIDJAN running
shed and adding to the freight traffic pattern one daily express train
ABIDJAN-OUAGADOUGOU-ABIDJAN, it is estimated that 21 active mainline loco-
motives are necessary to haul the trains included in the pattern. Additionally,
3 locomotives are necessary for the double-headings needed where the profilecharacteristics will still exceed the traction capacity of one single loco-motive. It makes a total of 24 active locomotives needed by 1980.
3. To these 24 active locomotives, 3 locomotives must be added as
stand-by locomotives in the running sheds of the line. This is needed be-
cause of the long distance between ABIDJAN, where the main running shed is
located, and the other end of the system (OUAGADOUGOU), and because, in case
of accident or breakdown, spare locomotives must be stationed in well selected
places along the line.
4. The total number of mainline locomotives needed can, therefore, be
estimated at:
1 x (21+3+3) = 40 locomotives.0.67
As RAN's fleet will count in 1977, 22 B-BB 1800 locomotives, the number of
additional locomotives to be procured is 18.
5. The total theoretical annual capacity for freight traffic, in termsof ton-kilometers, on the basis of the traffic pattern described above and
with an average load of 750 gross tons per locomotives, is of the order ofmagnitude of 2 billion gross ton-kilometers or about 910 million net ton-
kilometers.
6. As a check, with the figures of the freight traffic forecasts (Annex
6), the capacity needed for 1980 would be 657 million net ton-kilometers, of
ANNEX 9Page 3
which 454 million of northbound traffic. The northbound transport annualcapacity, assuming a 75% load of the locomotives would be:
Gross ton-km (Million)
-- 2 Daily Trains Abidjan-Ouagadougou 2 x 750 x 1145 x 365 = 626.9
-- 1 Daily Train Abidjan-Bouake 1 x 750 x 315 x 365 = 86.2
1 Daily Train Dimbokro-Ferkessedougou 1 x 750 x 376 x 365 = 102.9
1 Daily Train Abidjan-Ferkessedougou 1 x 750 x 558 x 365 = 152.8
2 Daily Trains Abidjan-Dimbokro 2 x 300 x 182 x 365 = 39.9
Total 1,008.7
or 1,008.7: 2.20 = 458.5 million ton-kilometers net. This meets thecapacity needs quoted above.
7. The total mileage of the mainline locomotives to be travelled to haulthe passenger and freight trains in 1980 will be of the order of magnitudeof 3,950,000 km, double-headed trains included. This represents about 95,000km per B-BB 1800 locomotive-year in the fleet or 7,900 km per B-BB 1800 loco-motive-month in the fleet. These figures are quite reasonable and are neithertoo demanding nor too low.
ANNEX 10Page 1
IVORY COAST - UPPER VOLTA
Regional Railway Project
I. Marshalling Yard Study
FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR THE MODIFICATIONS OF THE TREICHVILLEMARSHALLING YARD AND ROLLING STOCK MAINTENANCE FACILITIES
Terms of Reference
A. General Information
1. RAN's rolling stock maintenance facilities located in the Treich-ville marshalling yard must be transferred as soon as possible. The dustcoming from the cement grinding plants located southwest in the immediatevicinity of these maintenance facilities is harmful to the rolling stockand creates inappropriate working conditions for the personnel assigned tothis maintenance unit.
2. The transfer of these maintenance facilities to the northwesternpart of the Treichville marshalling yard had been envisaged to correct thissituation, while keeping them close to the starting station of the trains.This solution would deprive the RAN of marshalling facilities which are neededto serve the port zone of Abidjan and the existing industrial and transitareas, where substantial traffic and commercial development is expected withinthe next few years. Furthermore, this would make the use of these facilitiesfor expected suburban passenger traffic rather difficult or even impossible.
3. In the long run, a large railway complex is planned for Abobo. Thiscomplex will include a marshalling yard appropriate to the future traffic andwill fit into the plans for the extension of the port of Abidjan and itsindustrial areas.
4. However, in the short and medium term, the marhsalling yard ofTreichville will continue to serve existing port facilities, which will beextended, and the industrial and commercial areas which are connected to theport and the railway.
5. Even when the new marshalling facilities are completed at Abobo, forpractical operational reasons RAN will still need, in the Treichville area,marshalling facilities to sort or make up the passenger and freight trains.For this latter traffic, specifically, it would be inappropriate and ratherexpensive to marshal completely the freight cars carrying cargo which is boundfor or coming from the existing port and industrial areas, which will stand inthe future, in the sole marshalling yard of Abobo located at about 16 km fromthe center of those activities.
ANNEX 10
Page 2
6. To conclude, a master plan needs to be established for a new
arrangement of the rolling stock maintenance facilities and the marshalling
facilities of the Abidjan area, taking into account the present constraints,the short- and medium-term needs and the planned, long-term development.
This master plan, of which the re-arrangement and possible extension of the
Treichville marshalling yard is the main part, is the subject of a feasibility
study for which the following terms of reference provide guidelines.
B. Objectives
7. The objectives of the feasibility study are:
(i) determine the capacity of the rolling stock main-tenance facilities necessary to meet the expectedneeds in 1990 for passenger and freight vehicles;
(ii) determine the most suitable location for the recon-struction of the rolling stock maintenance facili-ties, as a function of the areas that could possibly
be freed to establish these facilities and of thecondition of their utilization in relation with thetrain starting points and the workshops of the rail-
way;
(iii) draft a general lay-out for these new maintenance
facilities;
(iv) determine the capacity for the railway terminal andtransit facilities of the Treichville station neededto accommodate the expected traffic increase in 1980and 1990, bound to or coming from the port andindustrial areas, taking into account the plannedextension of the latter facilities, and to accommo-
date the passenger traffic expected for 1980 and
1990;
(v) draft a general lay-out for the re-arrangement and
possible extension of the tracks at Treichvillemarshalling yard and passenger station, in order
to obtain the needed capacity in these facilities;
(vi) establish a tentative schedule for the works;
(vii) prepare draft terms of reference for the final engi-neering studies, with a time table and cost estimatesfor these studies;
(viii) prepare cost estimates (without taxes) for the works,quoting separately the foreign exchange costs andlocal costs; and
ANNEX 10Page 3
(ix) evaluate the project in both economic and finan-cial terms.
C. Scope of the Work
8. The consultant shall perform all technical studies, economic andfinancial analyses, field investigations and related work as herein describedto achieve the objectives set forth in Part B above and produce all the infor-mation required to justify the proposed project. The consultants shall basetheir work mainly on information supplied by the railway. They shall, how-ever, be solely responsible for the verification, analysis and interpretation*of all data received and for their findings and recommendations.
Technical Studies
(a) Capacity of the Rolling Stock Maintenance Facilities
9. On the basis of the traffic forecasts for 1990, which will be pro-vided by RAN, and of the definition and frequency of the maintenance opera-tions, the daily volume in terms of numbers of vehicles to be treated inthe various parts of the maintenance facilities will be determined. These
-data will be the major input for the evaluation of the capacity needed forthe new technical facilities.
(b) Geographical Location
10. The places where the new maintenance facilities could possibly berebuilt will be thoroughly inspected and their respective merits and disad-vantages evaluated in regard to:
(i) the areas that could possibly be freed in the railwaypremises;
(ii) the urban development plans for the city of Abidjanand adjacent areas;
(iii) the rail connections between the new facilities,the starting points of the trains and the railwayworkshops and the railway operations on these con-nections;
(iv) the likely passenger train schedule devised to copewith the expected traffic in 1990 and the volume offreight rolling stock to be treated in these facili-ties by 1990; and
(v) the volume of works needed to restore a sufficientcapacity for the facilities that have been removedor modified in order to provide space for the newrolling stock maintenance facilities.
ANNEX 10Page 4
(c) Draft General Lay-out of the New Rolling StockMaintenance Facilities
il. The proposed draft general lay-out will be established taking intoconsideration:
(i) the available space, with room for future expansion,without drafting this extension however;
(ii) the necessity of maintaining a sufficient operationalcapacity for the Treichville station, specificallyfor what concerns the reception, marshalling and dis-patching of freight trains coming from or bound tothe line and the areas presently served by thisTreichville station, in the short- and medium-term;
(iii) the possible extension of the activities in theTreichville station for what concerns the passengertraffic; and
(iv) the necessary equilibrium to be maintained betweenthe capital outlay for constructions, the needs andRAN's financial possibilities.
12. The draft general lay-out will include a description of the works,as detailed as possible, a situation map (Scale: 1/10,000) and a generaldrawing of the proposed new maintenance facilities (Scale: 1/1,000).
(d) Draft General Lay-out for the Re-arrangementof the Existing Facilities
13. The draft general lay-out for the re-arrangement of the existingfacilities to provide space for the new rolling stock maintenance facilitieswill determine the works to be executed for: (i) restoring a sufficientcapacity for the modified facilities at the forecast level of activity inthe short-term (1980) and, (ii) providing room for a possible extensionof the said facilities to meet the medium-term needs (1990). If the placeselected is, for example, the site presently allocated to the "Parc VB,"the works planned for the re-arrangement of the railway facilities willinclude the restoration of the VB facilities with a sufficient operationalcapacity and the re-arrangement and extension of the passenger stationtracks and of the sets of sidings of the marshalling yard of Treichville,taking over the space becoming available after removal of the existing roll-ing stock maintenance facilities.
Note: The remark of paragraph 11 (iv) is also applicable for the studyof this general lay-out.
14. In all cases, the consultants will prepare a description of theworks, as detailed as possible, with a general drawing of the re-arrangement(Scale: 1/1,000) and of the possible extension of existing facilities.
ANNEX 10Page 5
15. Finally, the capacity of the marshalling facilities will be deter-mined in accordance with the guidelines spelled out in the note attached tothe present Terms of Reference.
(e) Tentative Execution Schedule
16. The feasibility study will comprise a tentative execution sched-ule for the construction of the new maintenance facilities and for the re-arrangement and the possible extension of the existing facilities. Thisschedule will detail the successive phases of the works as to:
(i) allow the continuity of efficient railway operationsduring the modifications in the traffic conditionsprevailing at the time of execution; and
(ii) provide room for the necessary extensions to copewith the increased volumes of activity as forecastin the short- and medium-term.
(f) Final Engineering Studies
17. The consultants will establish draft terms of reference for thefinal engineering studies which will include the preparation of the biddingdocuments for the execution of the proposqd project with cost estimates forthe works (without taxes) quoting separately the foreign exchange costsand the local costs. These terms of reference will allow a possible divi-sion of the final engineering studies into several parts which could beawarded to different organizations or specialized services.
18. The consultants will establish detailed cost estimates of thefinal engineering studies and a time-table for their execution. The finalengineering studies which will follow the feasibility study will deal with:
(i) the earthworks and drainage works;
(ii) the buildings, technical facilities and util-ities both for the Treichville marshalling yardand the rolling stock maintenance facilities;
(iii) the equipment and machinery for the passengercoach cleaning;
(iv) the facilities for routine maintenance and dieseloil and sand distribution for the shunting engines;
(v) the water supply and fire protection network;
(vi) the telephone network;
(vii) the electric power supply and distribution network;
ANNEX 10Page 6
(viii) the sewerage network;
(ix) the lighting in the workshops and work areas;
(x) the rail connections of the rolling stock mainte-nance facilities;
(xi) the sets of tracks for the storage of stand-bypassenger rolling stock;
(xii) the service roads serving the various facilitiesand their connection to the general public roadsystem;
(xiii) the track sets of the passenger station and of themarshalling yard of Treichville;
(xiv) the modifications to be executed to the electric power,lighting, water supply, sewerage, compressed air andvacuum networks in the Treichville station;
(xv) the signalling; and
(xvi) the fixed installations (weigh-bridge, cranes, areasand machinery for conteiner handling, end-loadingplatforms, etc.).
The final engineering studies will include all the bidding documents, exceptfor the supplies or works to be provided by RAN (track material and stoneballast, etc.).
(g) Economic and Financial Analysis
19. For each variant solution envisaged, the consultants will calculatethe total construction cost and will establish a disbursement schedule detail-ing the disbursements relating to each phase of execution. For the economicand financial evaluation of the project, the following elements will be takeninto consideration:
(i) the estimated operating costs by traffic unit ascompared with the present operating costs;
(ii) the savings on the passenger coach maintenancecosts, including the estimated cost of immobili-zation of the vehicles;
(iii) the additional costs to the Ivorian and UpperVoltan economies which would result from thediversion of rail traffic to road, if the capac-ity of the Treichville marshalling facilities
ANNEX 10Page 7
were insufficient to cope with the traffic demand,assuming that the re-arrangement and/or the exten-sion of these facilities would not be executed.
20. The consultants will, for the year following immediately the com-pletion of the project and for the year 1985, evaluate the impact of theproposed project on RAN's financial situation as it appears in its IncomeAccounts and Balance Sheets, comparing the situation "with" and "without"re-arrangement and extension of the Treichville marshalling facilities.All the assumptions made will be explicitly stated.
D. Information and Services Provided by RAN
21. RAN will provide to the consultant all the available data relatingto the project. This information will include, inter alia:
- updated traffic forecasts;
- the origin/destination and volume of the differentcategories of present traffic, separatelyby area connected to the Treichville station;
- the peak period for e4ch category of presenttraffic, with indication of the volume, the timeperiod and the variations;
- the length and the actual composition of the trains,with the characteristics of the utilized vehiclesper category of traffic and train type (railcars,express trains, mixed trains, general cargo freighttrains, block trains, service trains, etc.);
- the average load of the freight cars for eachcategory of cargo;
- the turnaround time of the vehicles, for each typeand by utilization;
- by type and utilization of the vehicles the averagenumber of vehicles staying in the various facilities,with the average number of daily entries and the aver-age stay in the said facilities, and indication of thevariations of these parameters;
- the description of the signalling system in thestations;
ANNEX 10Page 8
the auxiliary facilities required according to RAN'sopinion and their forecast utilization in terms ofquantities, space needed, number of elements treateddaily, etc.;
the possible urban constraints; and
- the conclusion of previous studies concerning therolling stock maintenance facilities and the plannedrailway complex of Abobo.
22. During their stay in Ivory Coast, RAN will provide the con-sultants:
(a) the needed administrative and secretarial services;
(b) the required offices with furniture and equipment;
(c) the necessary transport means (rail transport).
In their proposals, the consultants will determine exactly the required.facilities and services referred to in paragraphs (a) and (b) above.
E. Reports - Timing
23. The consultants will prepare and submit the reports described belowin the said time limits:
(i) a draft final report three months after the startingdate of the feasibility study, describing briefly themethodology applied for determination of the capacityof the various facilities envisaged and summarizingall the work performed, the conclusions and recommenda-tions of the consultants, including the maps, drawings,estimates and diagrams concerning the proposed construc-tion programs; and
(ii) a final report thirty days after reception by theconsultants of all the comments and remarks madeconcerning the draft fiial report, the final reportincluding all amendments and appropriate corrections.
24. All these reports will comprise a summary of the conclusions andrecommendations of the consultants. The draft final report will be sub-mitted in _ copies in French and _ copies in English. The final reportwill be submitted in - copies in French and copies in English.
ANNEX 10Page 9Attachment
CAPACITY OF TREICHVILLE MARSHALLING FACILITIES. 1980 AND 1990
1. The marshalling yard capacity to be provided for in the Treichvillestation for the years 1980 and 1990 will be determined as a function of thefollowing factors:
(i) the traffic volumes in terms of average number ofvehicles per day coming in and going out the mar-shalling facilities, with evaluation of the peakvariation;
(ii) the present average stay of the vehicles in thesets of tracks and on the loading and unloadingsidings and the parking tracks;
(iii) the operational targets concerning the turnaroundof the vehicles and their average stay in thevarious facilities, which would be.considered asachievable by the consultants and would be agreedupon by RAN's management;
(iv) the operating scheme to be proposed by the consul-tants for the marshalling yard, taking into account(a) the frequency, the optimal time spread betweenand the length of the incoming and out-going trainsfrom and to the line; (b) the practical duration ofthe marshalling operations and of the sorting of thevehicles by origin or destination; and (c) the numberof sidings to be allocated at this sorting or at spe-cial utilizations;
(v) the frequency, the optimal spreading in time and thelength of the trains serving the port and industrialzone;
(vi) the circuit, the frequency, the optimal spreading intime and the length of the trains coming from or goingto the rolling stock maintenance facilities or theworkshops; and
(vii) the availability and the optimal number of shuntersfor the marshalling operations in the Treichvillestation and its auxiliary facilities and for thetransfer of the rolling stock to and from the main-tenance and repair facilities.
ANNEX 10Page 10Attachment
2. The calculation of the required capacity will be based on andjustified by:
(i) the detailed description of the proposed operatingscheme and of the recommended allocation of thetracks and sidings to the various utilizations;
(ii) the complete and explicit set of data and basicassumptions used by the consultants;
(iii) the description of the methods used for the calcula-tion; and
(iv) the brief description of the computer models possiblyused by the consultants for the execution of researchor calculations, (with an indication of the required inputdata, the results to be obtained, and of the limitationsof these models).
ANNEX 10Page 11
II. PETIONARA-TAFIRE FEASIBILITY STUDY
Abidjan Niger (RAN)
Petionara-Tafire Feasibility Study
Terms of Reference
A. BACKGROUND
1. The construction of the RAN railway can be divided into twodistinct periods. During the first one, 1904-1927, the line was builtfrom Abidjan to Tafire (488 km). It had low standard characteristics:
- minimum curve radius: 170 m;
- maximum gradient: 27.5 mm/m;
- 25-26 kg rails: 6 to 8 m long;
- axle load limit; 10 tons; and
- maximum speed: 40-50 kph for freight trains, and50-80 kph for passenger trains.
During the second period, 1927-1954, the Tafire-Ouagadougou section wasbuilt with improved characteristics:
- minimum curve radius: 500 m;
- maximum gradient: 10 mm/m;
- 30 kg rails; 10 to 12 m long;
- axle load limit: 15 tons; and
- maximum speed: 80 kph.
2. To correct the severe characteristics of the profile of the firstsection, some realignment works with the latter standards were executed before1969 (Abidjan-Agboville: 80 km). Since 1969 the realignment projects havebeen undertaken at a rate which is expected to be approximately 35 km peryear. These projects are:
1970-1972 Agboville-Dimbokro (105 km); and
1974-1977 Dimbokro-Bouake (new route = 134 km).
ANNEX 10Page 12
3. When this latter project is completed, nearly the whole systemwill have the uniform new standards (mainly 500-m minimum curve radiusand 10 mm/m maximum gradient compensated for curves) except for theBouake-Tafire stretch which lies between the previously realignedsection Abidjan-Bouake and the Tafire-Ouagadougou section. However,between Abidjan and Le Banco there are still very sharp curves and steepslopes. This requires double-headed trains for loads above 500-700 tons.In addition, there are numerous curves between Le Banco and Agbovillewith radii shorter than 500 m. Widening works of the track subgrade witha view of track doubling are contemplated between Abidjan and Anyama, start-ing in October 1977, and thereafter, between Anyama and Agboville, thegradient and curve characteristics of these sections being corrected atthe same time to meet RAN's standard characteristics. Only a slope of 13mm/m gradient and a 400-m radius curve will remain on the 6 km sectionlinking Abidjan (Lagune) and Agban.
4. All lines are meter-gauge and single-track, except for a sectionof about 16 km between Cechi and Anoumaba which is double-track. Also,the track subgrade of the Dimbokro-Bouake section, where realignment worksare presently ongoing, is capable of a double track.
5. RAN's specifications for new track laying provide for:
(i) 36-kg per meter rail;
(ii) concrete sleepers with a density of 1,357 sleepers per km orsteel sleepers with a density of 1,500 sleepers per km; and
(iii) 1.0 to 1.2 m3 of stone ballast per meter.
These new specifications are reasonable for welded track with an axle loadof about 15 tons (locomotives) and traffic conditions prevailing in theIvory Coast during the next decade. RAN is now considering the possibilityof adopting wooden sleepers for the future track relaying in the Ivory Coast.
B. OBJECTIVE
6. By 1978 the on-going realignment works of the Dimbokro-Bouakesection will be completed. On the Bouake-Tafire section (172 km) the trackmaterial needs renewal and the subgrade needs rehabilitation, all withinthe next few years. RAN planned initially to rebuild 162 km of this sectionon a new alignment with the uniform standards which provide substantialsavings in operating costs and travel time. The first part of the proposednew route, Bouake-Petionara (89 km), is the optimum solution as determinedby extensive studies executed by RAN's civil works department. Thus, realign-ment of this section is included in a project presently under considerationand is expected to be completed by end-1979. Most of the then remaining
ANNEX 10Page 13
83-km stretch Petionara-Tafire may need track renewal and subgrade rehabili-tation shortly thereafter, and upgrading to the otherwise uniform standardsis being considered. Determination of a technically and economically optimalsolution for this stretch is the objective of this study.
C. SCOPE OF WORK
7. The consultants shall perform all technical studies, economic andfinancial analyses, field investigations and related work as herein des-cribed, and not already done by RAN, to achieve the objective set forthabove, including preparation of such provisional designs, drawings, con-struction programs, cost estimates, notes on recommended operational pro-cedures and all other information required to justify the recommendedproject. The consultants shall base their work mainly on informationreceived from RAN. They will, however, be solely responsible for the veri-fication and interpretation of all data received and for their findings andrecommendations. In their reports the consultants shall spell out clearlyall assumptions and hypotheses made. In case a computer model is used,all model hypotheses shall be specified.
8. In order to determine a technically and economically optimal solu-tion for the proposed reconstruction of the Petionara-Tafire section, theconsultants shall analyze and compare several alternative alignments orvariants, the basis of the comparison being the reference case describedin para. 10 below. The alternative alignments or variants are quoted inparas. 11 through 13 below.
Technical Studies
9. The cost estimates prepared by the consultants shall be based on1977 prices excluding taxes and including, but spelling out separately,adequate physical and price contingencies. Local and foreign costs shallbe shown separately.
10. Reference case: The consultants shall estimate the work needed,its optimal timing and the costs to rehabilitate the existing alignmentfrom Petionara to Tafire. This rehabilitation shall not include anymodification of the geometric characteristics of the line. It shall includeall works, such as track renewal, reballasting, repair of subgrade, signal-ling and telecommunications, needed to ensure satisfactory traffic safetyand sufficient transport capacity on Petionara-Tafire for the next tenyears.
il. New alignment: RAN has engineered a new alignment for thePetionara-Tafire section, which would bring the line closer to the townof Niakaramandougou. The consultants shall review RAN's engineering, inparticular the technical appropriateness of the proposed design versus the
ANNEX 10Page 14
needs of the area served by the railway and the adequacy of RAN's costestimates. Should the consultants disagree with RAN's proposed designroute and characteristics, and cost estimates, they shall produce adequaterevisions.
12. Upgrading of existing line: The consultants shall determine and
estimate the costs of the least-cost solution to upgrade the line on or close
to the present alignment to RAN's new standards, i.e. a minimum curve radius
of 500 m and maximum gradients of 10 mm/m compensated. In doing so theconsultants may adopt geometrical characteristics below the above standardson short stretches and/or a limited number of curves if this would entailsubstantial savings in project costs and would not produce any significantconstraint for RAN's operations, regarding in particular the maximum weight
and length of trains permitted on the newer sections of the line.
13. Other alternatives: The consultants shall identify, analyze andestimate the costs of any alternative alignment or variant that: (i) would
be compatible with RAN's present design characteristics, and (ii) promises
to be less expensive than the alignments described in paras. 11 and 12.
Traffic
14. The consultants shall use the freight traffic forecasts for Bouake-
Petionara-Tafire for 1977-1985 given in the attached table. After 1985 the
consultants shall assume an annual increase of freight traffie of 2%. Theaverage transport distance for this traffic is estimated at 700 km and is
expected to remain unchanged.
15. The number of passengers on Petionara-Tafire, estimated at 840,000in 1975, shall be assumed by the consultants to increase at an annual rate of
2.8% until 1985 and at 1.5% thereafter. The average distance traveled bythese passengers shall be determined by the consultants and shall be assumed
to remain constant if there is no clear evidence to the contrary.
Cost-Benefit Analysis
16. Costs and benefits, to determine internal economic rates of return,
shall be expressed in 1977 prices. Project costs shall include physicalcontingencies and exclude taxes. The consultants shall make appropriateuse of shadow prices. The shadow wage rate for unskilled or semi-skilledlabor in the Ivory Coast is estimated at 0.83.
17. The consultants shall do analyses of four types: (a) the rateof return of each solution as determined by the technical studies shall be
determined separately, comparing each solution with the present situation;
(b) after classifying those of the above solutions which show a rate ofreturn of more than 10% in an order of increasing project costs, an incre-mental analysis shall be done, showing the rate of return on the portion
ANNEX 10Page 15
of the solution's cost that is incremental to the cost of the proceedingsolution. In any event, an incremental analysis shall be done for thesolution recommended by the consultants as an increment to the referencecase (para. 10). Care shall be taken to avoid double-counting of benefits;(c) the optimal timing of the different solutions shall be determined bymeans of a net present value analysis, using a discount rate of 12%; and(d) a sensitivity analysis shall show the sensitivity of the f indings under(a) to (c) above to the following assumptions, taken separately and together:(i) freight traffic increase beyond the 1976 level only 50% of that spelledout in para. 14; (ii) rail transport cost 10% higher than initially esti-mated by the consultants, due to railway inefficiencies; and (iii) investmentcosts 15% higher than initially estimated (in addition to the physical con-tingencies already included in costs). An additional analysis, to be doneboth separately and together with the aggregate of the above sensitivityanalyses, shall test the sensitivity of the results to an inclusion ofmanganese ore transport from Tambao to Abidjan.
18. In estimating cost streams, in particular for the alignment men-tioned in para. 11, the consultants shall inter alia take into account theeconomic costs generated by the selection of a new alignment in the formof: (i) a need to maintain all or part of the existing line to linkactual or future customers (e.g., a sugar plant) to the railway; and/or(ii) an expected loss of actual or future rail traffic. Expected gains ofrail traffic, linked to a specific alignment, should correspondingly be
considered as a benefit.
19. The consultants shall consider, whenever appropriate, the follow-ing types of benefits, consisting in the avoidance of costs for: (i)derailments; (ii) broken rails; (iii) track maintenance; (iv) track super-vision and emergency staff; (v) diversion of rail traffic to road;(vi) traction costs for passenger and freight trains; and (vii) procure-ment of locomotives. The consultants shall endeavor to identify andquantify additional types of benefits.
Financial Analysis
20. The consultants shall determine the internal financial rates ofreturn for the solution identified by the consultants as the optimal oneand for the second-best alternative. For this purpose the consultantsshall: (i) use constant 1977 prices; (ii) take into account inter aliathe costs and benefits mentioned in para. 18; (iii) analyze and estimatethose costs which they cannot obtain from RAN's cost accounting system;and (iv) take into account RAN's plans for tariff increases over and aboveinflationary cost increases.
21. The consultants shall determine the influence of the optimalsolution and the second-best alternative on RAN's cash flow. For thispurpose the consultants shall assume: (i) an annual cost inflation of 5%;
ANNEX 10Page 16
(ii) corresponding offsetting tariff increases, in addition to thosementioned in para. 20; (iii) financing by RAN of the local costs of theproject; and (iv) financing by long-term borrowing of the foreign costsof the project. The assumed terms of this financing shall be an interestrate of 9% and repayment in 16 annuities after 4 years of grace.
22. The cash flow analysis shall cover the period from the begin-ning of project implementation until 10 years after completion of theproject. The probable impact of the project on the expected amount ofGovernment contributions shall be analyzed separately.
D. REPORTS AND TIMING
23. The consultants shall submit: (i) an interim report at the endof the second month following the starting date of their works; (ii) aDraft Final Reprt within 4 months of the starting date summarizing allwork performed, the findings and recommendations of the consultants,including maps, plans, estimates and diagrams of the proposed constructionprogram and of what the consultants consider to be the second-best solu-tion; and (ii) a Final Report within 30 days of the receipt of all commentson the Draft, incorporating all appropriate revisions.
24. All reports shall include a summary of the consultants' findingsand recommendations. The interim report shall be submitted in 8 copiesin French. The Draft Final Report shall be submitted in 50 copies inFrench and 30 copies in English. The Final Report shall be submitted in50 copies in French and 30 copies in English.
E. INFORMATION AND SERVICES PROVIDED BY RAN
25. RAN will: (i) provide the consultants will all available informa-tion on the railway, its organization, administration and operations; and(ii) assist the consultants in obtaining necessary information from theGovernments and other organizations.
26. In the Ivory Coast, RAN will provide for the consultants: (i)administrative and secretarial services; (ii) offices with furniture andequipment; and (iii) rail transport. The consultants will determine intheir proposals the services and facilities needed under (i) and (ii) above.
ANNEX 10Page 17
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
APPRAISAL OF A REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Bouake-Petionara-Tafire Traffic Provisions
--------------------- Freight Traffic (Tons '000) -------------------------
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1985
Southbound
Livestock 23.0 25.0 27.0 30.0 35.0 37.0 39.0 44.0
Cotton 30.0 34.0 37.5 41.0 44.0 47.0 51.0 60.0
Oil seeds 120.0 102.0 105.0 107.0 110.0 112.0 115.0 125.0
Sugar 14.0 24.0 32.0 44.0 56.0 76.0 92.0 120.0
Logs - - - - - - -
Molasses 3.0 4.0 6.0 10.0 19.0 25.0 30.0 40.0
Miscellaneous 13.4 15.0 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.6
Total 203.4 204.0 222.0 246.3 278.3 311.6 341.9 404.6
Northbound
Petroleumproducts 108.0 120.0 133.0 147.0 160.0 171.0 183.0 223.0
Cement 60.6 77.9 95.0 108.5 121.9 134.7 147.5 184.8
Metal products 23.5 25.0 27.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 32.0 35.0
Fertilizer 30.0 32.2 35.2 39.0 42.8 46.5 48.7 56.25
Food andbeverage 91.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.0
Miscellaneous 55.0 57.0 58.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 74.0
Total 368.2 401.1 437.2 473.5 506.7 537.2 567.2 662.1
GRAND TOTAL 571.6 605.1 659.2 719.8 785.0 848.8 909.1 12066.7
ANNEX 11Page 1
DETAILS OF ECONOMIC EVALUATION
General
1. The economic evaluation consists of an itemized cost-benefitanalysis providing economic rates of return for each project componentand for the project as a whole. A sensitivity analysis identifies howvariations of the main parameters affect the economic rate of return.
2. All costs and benefits are expressed in constant 1976 CFA francs.Investment costs are net of taxes and include physical contingencies. Thefixed parity between the French franc and CFA franc is given by CFAF 100 =FF 2. The exchange rate with the dollar, whenever applicable, is US$1 =CFAF 245. Shadow pricing is applied to the value of labor in the evalua-tion of investments resulting in savings in labor costs; it has not beenapplied, however, to local costs of civil works; therefore, the rates ofreturn obtained are somewhat underestimated. The shadow price is taken at.83 of market wage rates.
Road and Rail Operating Costs -
3. An important benefit of the proposed investments is avoiding diver-sion of existing and future railway freight traffic to road transport. Asshown by the data below, economic _osts of road transport are substantiallyhigher than the railway's for the kind of traffie and distance involved.
4. The operating cost of road transport is based on estimates preparedby the consulting firm SETEC in October 1976. They correspond to the oper-ating cost of 18-ton trucks for stretches of homogeneous characteristiesbetween Abidjan and Upper Volta. The following succession of stretchesestablishes a continuous way from Abidjan to the Upper Voltan border.
ANNEX 11Page 2
Operating Cost Estimates
Stretch: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Length (km) 6 6.1 1.4 60.8 27.9 21.5 16.4 55 45 41
SETEC CostFigure (CFAF) 1047.8 971.5 223 9683.5 4443.6 3424.3 2612 8759.2 7166.6 6529.6
Stretch: il 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Length (km) 5.8 50.7 7.4 51 65 15 48 47 44.4 30.5
SETEC CostFigure (CFAF) 923.7 8074.4 1178.5 8122.2 10253.2 2388.9 7571.8 7414.1 8763.6 6228.7
The SETEC transport cost per vehicle, excluding tax, is therefore CFAF 105,800.5for 645.9 km, or CFAF 163.8/km. It is expressed in 1975 CFAF and includesvehicle running cost, insurance, amortization and overheads. It does notincorporate road maintenance costs. SETEC's estimate takes into account thestructure and the condition of the road, including improvements expected to bemade by 1979-1980. It applies to a small enterprise (one or two trucks), andit assumes good maintenance standards.
5. The estimated operating cost of road transport in 1976 CFAF isreached by deducting CFAF 39.3 from the SETEC cost figure which includesamortization and debt service and inflating to 1976 by a factor of 1.08. The1976 cost is thus CFAF 134.45/18 t-truck-km. For load factors in the range of.5 to .7, it can be established 1/ that the road maintenance cost is CFAF6.45/18 t-truck-km. Therefore, the economic cost of road transport includingvehicle operating costs and road maintenance is estimated at CFAF 140.9/18t-truck-km. Assuming a 65% utilization factor, a cost of CFAF 12.0/ton-km isobtained. With an estimated purchase price (tax free) of CFAF 10.6 million 2/for a 18 ton-truck and economic life of 7 years, the operating cost, includingdepreciation of the truck, is CFAF 15.4/ton-km. 3/
1/ SETEC "Etude de la Fiscalite Routiere en Cote d'Ivoire", August 1974.
2/ SETEC Study on Ivory Coast's transport sector, 1976.
3/ In a study of Upper Volta's Transport Sector prepared by BCEOM in June1976 under FAC financing, road transport costs are estimated to varyfrom CFAF 13.0/ton-km to CFAF 20.7/ton-km, depending on the annualdistance travelled, the type of truck and the utilization factor. Thefigure of CFAF 15.4/ton-km adopted for the analysis may thereforeslightly underestimate average truck operating costs.
ANNEX 11Page 3
6. Railway operating costs (excluding depreciation) have been derivedfrom RAN's marginal expenses, without taxes, during the period 1970-1976,presented in Table 1 to this Annex. 1/ Railway marginal costs are calculatedat CFAF 7.3 per ton-km. Adding the costs of transshipment to make the servicecomparable to road transport, estimated on average at CFAF 0.8/ton-km, totalrailway operating costs are CFAF 8.1 ton-km.
Evaluation of Project Components
Improvement of the 89-km Bouake-Petionara section
7. The project includes the realignment of the 89-km stretch Bouake-Petionara. To show that realignment is economically superior to rehabilita-tion, it is demonstrated first that rehabilitation is economically justified,and second that the economic return of the incremental investment in realign-ment (over rehabilitation) is satisfactory.
Track rehabilitation
8. By renewing the track between Bouake and Petionara, RAN avoids theeconomic consequences of an increasing number of derailments and broken railsarising from the deteriorating condition of the track. Derailments provokepassenger injuries and casualties, damages to locomotives and rolling stock,reduction of line capacity and an increased turnaround time of crews andequipment. The welding of existing old rails (which are about 50 yearsold) on some stretches of this section, which presently attempts to preventderailments due to the poor condition of the track and to reduce maintenanceburdens, cannot prevent broken rails due to track wear and cannot consequentlyavoid delays in operations and possible derailments. A solution without re-newal would require more frequent maintenance, an additional labor force nec-essary for track inspection and repair of broken rails and a diversion oftraffic to the road due to the poor service.
9. The cost of one derailment is estimated at CFAF 8.39 million:CFAF 3.53 million for locomotive and rolling stock repairs; CFAF 3.40 millionfor track repair, CFAF 0.99 million for the immobilization of equipment; CFAF0.33 million for increase in turnaround time, CFAF 141,120 for crew costs.In addition, the poor condition of worn track requires supplementary tampingestimated to cost CFAF 36.5 million/year and additional track supervisionmaintenance and emergency gangs according to the forecast number of derail-ments shown in the next paragraph, with annual costs as follows: 1979-81:CFAF 12.86 million; 1982-84 CFAF 25.73 million; 1985-2000 CFAF 45.03 million.The cost of one occurence of broken rails is estimated at CFAF 195,000 in-cluding CFAF 70,070 for the increase in turnaround time, CFAF 30,135 for theadditional working time of the crews, CFAF 65,415 for the repairs and weldingand CFAF 29,400 for the utilization of a gang car. For the broken rail prob-lem, the additional labor cost represents CFAF 7.65 million/year for inspec-tion, CFAF 6.81 million/year for a stand-by gang, and CFAF 36.51 million/yearfor the additional mechanical maintenance (tamping).
1/ Table numbers, except as otherwise noted, refer to tables of this Annex.
ANNEX 11Page 4
10. Under normal conditions, disruptions of the section Bouake-Petionarawould be limited to three derailments in a four-year period and one occurrenceof broken rails per year. The following table shows the additional number ofderailments and broken rail occurrences expected without renewal (Bank's esti-mates), over and above those that would take place with renewal:
1990No. of 1979 1980 1981 1982 1982 1984 1985 onwards
Derailments 7 8 il 12 15 17 20 55
Broken rails 14 17 21 27 35 44 59 196
11. Without rehabilitation, the progressive deterioration of RAN's qual-ity of service due to the increase in derailments and broken rails is expectedto divert freight traffic to more expensive road transport.The economic cost of road transport, as mentioned in para. 5, is estimated atCFAF 15.4/ton-km, including depreciation of the truck (but excluding capitalcosts of the road). The economic cost of rail is CFAF 9.6/ton-km (para. 6),including depreciation of locomotives and roliing stock (CFAF 1.5/ton-km),and transshipment costs. Most of present railway traffic is long distanceand the new traffic to be generated in future years will also be longdistance; the present, limited short- and medium-distance railway trafficis mostly from siding to siding, and there are no transshipment costs. It isestimated, therefore, that only a very marginal part of the traffic to bediverted to the road would be subject to a road-rail cost differential lowerthan the one mentioned above.
ANNEX 11Page 5
Percentage of Traffic Expected I/ Annual 2/ CumultiveIncrease Diverted Increase Diversion Diversion
to Road ('000 tons) (million t-km) (million t-km)
1981 10 63.8 4.5 4.5
1982 10 60.3 4.2 8.7
1983 15 52.5 5.5 14.2
1984 20 52.5 7.4 21.6
1985 25 52.5 9.2 30.8
1986 30 40.0 8.4 39.2
1987 35 40.0 9.8 49.0
1988 40 40.0 11.2 60.2
1989 50 40.0 14.0 74.2
1990 60 40.0 16.8 91,0
1991 70 40.0 19.6 110.6
1992 85 40.0 23.8 134.4
1993 100 40.0 28.0 162.4
1994 100 40.0 28.0 190.4
1/ Total traffic through Bouake-Petionara in 1985 is forecast at 1.07 mil-lion tons, and therefore traffic increases of 40,000 ton/year beyond1985 represents less than 4% annual growth and should be consideredas a conservative estimate.
2/ Estimated average total distance haul for traffie passing throughBouake-Petionara section: 700 km.
12. The economic rate of return of track rehabilitation is 18%.(See costs and benefits stream in Table 2). The rate of return would fallto 17%, if investment costs were 10% higher than expected; also to 17%with 10% higher rail operating costs; to 15%, if rail traffic increased only50% of the forecast from 1975, and to 13%, in the case of a combinationof these three events. These results are satisfactory.
ANNEX 11Page 6
Trackrealignment
13. The track realignment is intended to remove slope gradients inexcess of 10 mm/m and reduce the curvature of the line on the Bouake-Petionara section. On the present route the gross tonnage per B-BB 1800 loco-motive averages 400 tons with a load factor of 62%. The analysis considersnet tonnage per locomotive of 223 ton with present alignment and 341 tons withrealignment, which would underestimate the benefits of the realignment, as thefirst figure is likely to be higher and the second lower than the actualvalues. A conversion factor net ton-km to gross ton-km of 2.2 is assumed.The benefits of the realignment are quantified as follows: (i) savings infreight traction costs are estimated on the basis of a difference of CFAF1.1/net ton-km 1/ in direct operating costs of locomotives "with" and "with-out" realignment; (ii) savings in passenger traction costs are estimated onthe same basis, and in the assumption of 1.5 pass-km per ton-km; (iii) savingsin locomotive investments on the basis of 100,000 km/ year per locomotive andrenewal every two million km; initially 3 locomotives - 2 stand-by and 1 inreserve - would need to be bought in late 1977, to be available by end-1979if the realignment is not carried out, to provide traction capacity for doubleheading along the Bouake-Petionara section (additional locomotives would beneeded for double heading in the Petionara-Tafire section); and (iv) savingsin track maintenance, estimated at CFAF 11.6 million/year. The costs andbenefit streams are presented in Table 3.
14. The yield on the incremental investment allowing for realignmentinstead of rehabilitation is 15%. The rate of return would fall to 13% ifinvestment costs were 10% higher than estimated, to 11%, if traffic growthwere only 50% of the forecast, and to 10%, in the case of these two events,occuring simultaneously. These results are satisfactory. Since no roaddiversion benefits have been assumed for the realignment alone, the rate ofreturn would not be affected by a possible increase in railway operatingcosts.
15. Complete realignment project. The complete realignment investment,including track rehabilitation and track realignment, would yield a returnof 17%. The return would remain at 17% with 10% higher rail operating costs,fall to 16% with 10% higher investment costs, fall to 14% with traffic growthlimited to 50% of the forecast, and fall to 13% in the case of all three ofthese events combined. The project yields therefore a satisfactory economicreturn.
16. Freight cars, tank cars and locomotives. The analysis considerspackages of freight cars and locomotives, and tank cars (to be purchased bythe oil companies) and locomotives; locomotives which are to replace wornoutor obsolete equipment are evaluated separately.
1/ With the present load factor of 62%, operating costs Bouake-Petionaraare CFAF 222/ton on the present line and would be CFAF 118/ton with therealignment, or a difference of about CFAF 104/ton. For the 90 kmsection, this represents about CFAF 1.15/ton-km.
ANNEX 11Page 7
17. Freight cars (and associated locomotives). This project componentcomprises the purchase of 210 freight cars (and the locomotives required tohaul them) to satisfy the excess demand for rail transport as calculatedin Annex 8. Net ton-km provided by the new freight wagons are estimatedas shown below. It has been assumed a substantial increase in 1981 andslight thereafter, as a result of higher traffic and increased utilizationof the cars.
Years: 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 to 2002
Millions ofnet-t-km 47.2 48.8 104.5 171.7 177.6 177.4 178.2 178.9
Freight carsavailable: 60 140 210 210 210 210 210 210
It is estimated that one new locomotive is needed for every 20.3 millionnet ton-km. Some 8.8 locomotives would then be needed to haul the newfreight cars.
18. If the new freight wagons (and locomotives) are not purchased,the traffic they would have carried would be diverted to road transport at ahigher cost. Based on the savings from the avoided diversion (See table 4),the rate of return for this component is 26%. The return would fall to 24%with 10% higher investment costs, to 23% with 10% higher rail operating costs,to 24% with traffic growth 50% of the forecast, and to 20% with a simultaneouscombination of these three events.
19. Tank Cars (and associated locomotives). While the project doesnot include purchase of tank wagons, 40 such wagons will be bought by thepetroleum companies operating in Ivory Coast to transport the forecastpetroleum traffic. RAN will have to provide the required motive power.The 40 wagons will provide the following ton-km (see Annex 8).
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 to 2002
Millions of t-km: 31.1 39.8 42.1 46.3 48.1 49.9 51.8
20. The economic evaluation of the investment in tank cars and requiredlocomotives is made using the same methodology applied to freight wagons andlocomotives, i.e. benefits are quantified on the basis of avoided diversionto road transport. The equivalent of three locomotives is needed to pull thetank wagons purchased under the project. Cost and benefit streams are pre-sented in Table 5. The rate of return for this investment is 30%, and itfalls to 28% with 10% higher investment costs, 26% with 10% higher rail oper-ating costs, to 19% with traffic growth reduced by 50%, and 15% with all threeevents combined.
ANNEX 11Page 8
21. Locomotives (for renewal). The evaluation of the locomotives
to be substituted for existing equipment is based on the benefits and costs
of: i) replacement of 5CC-2400 locomotives which are very costly to operate
and which is justified based on savings in locomotive operating costs, and ii)
replacement of 26 CC-1000 and CC-1500 locomotives which are too old and cannot
continue to haul long distance service (see Annex 3) and which is justified
based on the diversion of freight to road transport if the traction capacity
needed to replace the old locomotives is not available. Based on the kilo-
metrage of the existing locomotives and their traction capacity and assuming
that the new locomotives were to perform the same as the existing B-BB 1800
(see Table 1 of main text), it is estimated that five CC-2400s would be
replaced by 1.3 new locomotives and the 26 CC-1000 and 1500 by 4.9 locomotives
(8.8 locomotives for the freight wagons and 3.0 locomotives for the 40 tank
cars provided by the oil companies complete the total of 18 new locomotives to
be purchased under the project).
22. The rate of return for the locomotives to be used for renewal
purposes is 36% (See Table 6). This rate would fall to 33% if locomotives
cost were 10% higher than expected, to 32% with 10% higher rail operating
costs, and to 30% in the combination of these two events. There is no
sensitivity to reduced traffic growth since these locomotives are needed
to haul existing traffic.
Track improvement in Upper Volta
23. The project includes improvement of the track in Upper Volta
consisting in the ballasting of about 100 km, renewal of 40 km of sleepers
and repairing several fills which are badly eroded. The improvement of the
track will restore safety standards to the line and generate savings in main-
tenance costs and derailment costs:
i) Maintenance cost savings due to re-ballasting are estimated
at 54 man-years, of which 4 man-years stemming from reduction
in maintenance staff of 0.04 man-km and avoiding the
additional staff that would be required for supplementaryinspection and emergency repairs (0.5 m/km). The economic
cost of the 54 man-years is estimated at CFAF 46.3 million,
based on salaries of CFAP 857,500/year and a shadow price
for labor of 0.83; 1/
ii) Derailment costs are estimated on the basis of a unit cost
of a derailment of CFAF 8.39 million (excluding additional
tamping and inspection that may be needed) and the following
forecast of derailments "without" the project:
1/ This is the shadow wage rate for the Ivory Coast; the rate for Upper
Volta is not available. Assuming a shadow price of 0.5 for Upper
Volta, the rate of return would be reduced by about one percentage point.
ANNEX 11Page 9
Years 1977-79 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
No. 2 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.5 7.4
iii) The cost of interruption of traffic due to collapse of earthfills is estimated on the basis of two weeks' interruptionper year, causing 50% of this traffic or 2% of annual freighttraffic to be diverted to road transport.
24. All benefits of tnis investment are based on 1976 traffic levels.The rate of return obtained is 13% and is somewhat underestimated for theabove reason. With 10% higher investment cost the return would fall to 12%,and also to 12% with 10% higher rail costs. With a combination of these twoevents, the return remains at 12% (see Table 7 for cost and benefit streams).
Track maintenance equipment
25. The evaluation of track maintenance equipment has been dividedinto equipment for renewal and equipment to continue RAN's track mainte-nance mechanization plans.
26. Equipment for renewal. The equipment for renewal consists of fourgang cars, six light inspection cars, one heavy inspection car and spare partsfor tamping machines. The estimated invesm-n"'ix cost is CFAF 173 million.Due to mechanization, the labc - ` nas been reduced by about 200 peoplefrom 1970 to 1976, and the total reduction since the beginning of the mechani-zation program is estimated at 250 workers. These staff would have to bere-hired if the worn-out maintenance equipment, which is 10 to 20 years old,is not replaced. Estimating the savings at only 150 people, and applyingshadow price of labor, the annual benefits from this investment would be CFAF106.8 million. Operating costs of this equipment are estimated at CFAF490/day per car (US$0.10/ km and 20 km per day). The rate of return for thiscomponent would be 53%, which falls to 49% with 10% higher investment costs.The evaluation is based on existing requirements of track equipment and istherefore independent of future traffic levels (see table 8).
27. Equipment for further mechanization. The equipment to continuethe mechanization plans consists of 2 gang cars, 2 light inspection cars,2 heavy inspection cars, 15 trailers, 2 bulldozers and 1 sleeper pressingmachine. Their estimated investment cost is CFAF 196 million. The continua-tion of the mechanization will result in savings of an estimated 87 workers.Average operating costs of this equipment are estimated at CFAF 490/day percar or other items. The economic evaluation for this component, carried outin the same form as for the renewal equipment, ylelds a rate of return of 25%which would fall to 22% if investment costs were 10% higher than expected(see table 9).
ANNEX 11Page 10
Evaluation of the Whole Proiect
28. The whole project has been evaluated by consolidating Costs andbenefits from the individual investments. Care has been taken to avoidpotential double counting of benefits, and for this reason the benefits fromavoided diversion in the rehabilitation of Bouake-Petionara have not been in-cluded in the analysis of the consolidated project, as they could duplicatethe benefits stemming from rolling stock and locomotive investment. The rateof return is 23%. This rate would fall to 21% with higher investment costs,21% with higher rail costs, 20% with lower traffic and to 17% with a combina-tion of these three events.
RAN: Long-term Marginal Working Expenses Without Taxes
(in 1976 prices)
1970 1975 1976 1980 1982
Pass-km (millions) 626 946 1021 1324 1447
Ton-km (millions) 402 392 504 672 761
Traffic units (millions)(t.u.: t/km+pjjm f ) 611 707 844 1133 1243
3
Working expenses (CFAF million) 6797 2/ 7567 8934 11050 12417
Taxes and transfer payments 3/(CFAF million) 1393 1550 1831 2265 2545
Net working expenses(CFAF million) 5404 6017 7103 8785 9872
Working expenses/t.u. (CFAF) 11.1 10.7 10.6 9.8 10.0
Net working expenses/t.u. (CFAF) 8.8 8.5 8.4 7.8 7.9
MARGTNA. ANAIÀYSTS: 1970-1976 1976-1982
Increment t.u. (millions) 233 536
Increment net working expenses(CFAF million) 1699 3855
Marginal net working expenses/t.u. (CFAF) 7.3 7.2
1/ This ratio reflects closely the relationship between the actual cost incurred by RAN for1 pass-km and 1 t-km.
2/ In 1976 prices; index: 1970 = 100; 1976 =195.3/ 20.5% of working expenses.
ANNEX 11
REHABILITATION OF BOUAKE - PETIONARA Table 2
COSTS AND BENEFITS
(CFAF million)
Ci B1 B2 B3 B4 B5Derailment Broken
Addil Broken Rail Savings inInvestment Derailment Staffing Rail Add'l Avoided Diversion
Year Costs Costs & Tamping Costs Staffing to Road
1977 4tO1978 15001979 810 29.3 24.7 1.3 7.21980 67.1 49.5 3.3 14.41981 92.3 49.5 4.1 14.4 25.81982 100.6 49.5 5.3 14.4 50.41983 125.8 62.2 6.8 14.4 82.31984 142.6 62.2 8.6 21.2 125.31985 167.7 62.2 11.5 21.2 178.61986 241.1 62.2 20.7 21.2 227.41987 314.5 81.5 29.9 28.1 284.21988 387.9 81.5 39.1 28.1 349.21989 461.4 81.5 48.3 28.1 430.41990 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 527.81991 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 641.51992 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 779.51993 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 941.91994 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.41995 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.41996 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.41997 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.41998 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.41999 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42000 461.4 81.5 57.7 .28.1 1,104.42001 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42002 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42003 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42004 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42005 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42006 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42007 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42008 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.42009 461.4 81.5 57.7 28.1 1,104.4
B1: includes locomotive and rolling stock repairs, track repair, immobilizationof equipment, increase in turnaround time and crew costs
B2: includes additional staff needed for maintenance, track supervision and emer-gency gangs.
B3: includes increased turnaround time, crews (repairs, welding, utilization ofgang cars)
B4: includes additional staff needed for inspection and stand-by gangs
B5: costs include depreciation of trucks and rail motive power & rolling stock
ANNEX Il
Table 3
1/REALIGNMENT OF BOUAKE - PETIONARA-
COSTS AND BENEFITS
(CFAF million)
4/2/ B3-- 5
Ci B1 B2-/ Savings in B4Investment Savings in Savings in Passenger Savings in
Cost Freight Traction Locomotive Traction TrackYear Realignment Costs Purchases Costs Maintenance
1977 5201978 360 5071979 6801980 340 77.0 169 63.0 11.61981 83.1 65.0 11.61982 89.0 66.0 11,61983 94.2 68.0 11.61984 99.2 68.0 11.61985 104.4 70.0 11.61986 109.0 70.0 11.61987 113.4 70.0 11.61988 117.9 70.0 11.61989 122.6 70.0 11.61990 127.5 70.0 11.61991 132.6 70.0 11.61992 138.0 70,0 11.61993 143.4 169 70,0 11.61994 149.2 169 70.0 11.61995 155.1 70.0 11.61996 161.3 70.0 11.61997 167.8 70.0 11.61998 174.5 70.0 11.61999 181.5 70.0 11.62000 188.7 70.0 11.62001 196.2 70.0 11.62002 204.1 70.0 11.62003 212.3 70.0 11.62004 220.8 169 70.0 11.62005 229.6 70.0 11.62006 238.8 70.0 11.62007 248.3 70.0 11.62008 258.2 70.0 11.62009 268.5 -118 70.0 11.6
1/ Costs and benefits are incremental over rehabilitation.
2/ Freight traction cost savings calculated on basis of differential costswith and without project of CFAF 1.1/loco-km. Pulling capacity assumed341 net ton/loco with project and 223 net ton/loco without project.
3/ 1 locomotive purchase saved for every 100,000 annual loco-km difference between"without" and "with" realignment; renewal every 2,000,000 loco-km.
4/ Calculated assuming equivalence 1.5 pass-km = 1.0 ton-km, estimated to be therelatronsaip for traction costs only.
5/ Bank estimate. Savings based on reduced number of loco-kilometers over thesection.
ANNEX 11
Table 4
1/
FREIGHT CARS AND LOCOMOTIVES-
COSTS AND BENEFITS
(CFAF million)
Ci C2 B1Investment Investment Savings in
Costs Costs Avoided DiversionYear Freight Cars Locomotives to Road
1977 695 4701978 695 7101979 695 318 3561980 232 80 7631981 12531982 12891983 12951984 13001985 13001986 13001987 13001988 13001989 13001990 13001991 13001992 13001993 13001994 13001995 13001996 13001997 13001998 13001999 1300
1/ This analysis refers to freight cars (excepting tank carswhich are analyzed separately) and to the locomotivesneeded to haul them. Locomotives purchased to replaceobsolete or worn-out equipment are evaluated separately.
ANNEX 11
Table 5
TANK CARS AND LOCOMOTIVES-/
COSTS AND BENEFITS
(CFAF million)
Ci C2 B1Investment Investment Savings in
Costs Costs Avoided DiversionYear Tank Wagons Locomotives to Road
1977 196 2701978 196 2701979 227.01980 290.51981 307.31982 338.01983 350.41984 364.31985 378.11986 378.11987 378.11988 378.11989 378.11990 378.11991 378.11992 378.11993 378.11994 378.11995 378.11996 378.11997 378.11998 378.11999 378.1
1/ The economic evaluation considers the investment in tank cars(to be made by the oil companies) and in the locomotives neededto pull them as a package.
ANNEX 11
Table 6
'I
LOCOMOTIVES-
COSTS AND BENEFITS
(CFAF million)
C2' Bi 41C1- B1- B2-
Investment Savings in Savings inCosts Operating Avoided Diversion
Year Locomotives Costs to Road
19771978 4601979 4601980 46.4 1251981 46.4 1881982 46.4 3131983 46.4 4391984 46.4 5641985 46.4 6271986 46.4 6271987 46.4 6271988 46.4 6271989 46.4 6271990 46.4 6271991 46.4 6271992 46.4 6271993 46.4 6271994 46.4 6271995 46.4 6271996 46.4 6271997 46.4 6271998 46.4 6271999 46.4 627
1/ This analysis refers to locomotives which will replaceobsolete and worn-out equipment. Locomotives needed topull the new freight and tank cars are evaluated in apackage with the cars.
2/ 6.2 locomotives are needed for renewal.
3/ Difference in operating costs between the new 1800-2000 hplocomotives and the existing CC-2400's estimated at CFAF 386.8/loco-km.
4/ Assuming that the obsolete CC-1000 and CC-1500 could continueto carry traffic until 1985, but gradually decreasing theirtransport capacities.
ANNEX 1 1
Table 7
LINE IMPROVEMENT IN UPP ER VOLTA
Costs and tenefits
(CFAF million)
ci nI7 B2-~-' B3nzSavggs Savings i Savings in
Investment Track Derailment AvoidedYear Costs Maintenance Costs Divers-ion
1978 523.51979 523.51980 38.4 19.31981 38..4 21.81982 38.4 25.21983 38.4 28.5 64.U1984 38.4 32.7 64.01985 38.4 36.9 64.01986 38.4 42.0 64.01987 38.4 47.8 64.01988 38.4 54.5 64.01989 38.4 62.5 64.01990 38.4 70.8 64.01991 38.4 80.7 64.01992 38.4 92.0 64.01993 38.4 104.9 64.01994 38.4 119.6 64.01995 38,4 136.3 64.01996 38.4 155.4 64.01997 38.4 177.2 64.01998 38.4 201.9 64.01999 38.4 230.2 64.02000 38.4 262.4 64.02001 38.4 299.2 64.02002 38.4 341.1 64.02003 38.4 388.8 64.02004 38.4 443.3 64.0
1/ Estimated at 54 man/years (4 man/years for regular maintenance and50 man/years due to additional needs for track inspection) obtainedby re-ballasting and new sleepers. Labor savings areassessed at its shadow price, 0.83.
2/ Derailmentsoriginated by lack of ballast, 2 during 1977-1979 andincreasing 10% p.a. thereafter, and by bad sleepers, producing anadditional 4% annual increase in derailments.
3/ Assuming traffic interruptions of 2 weeks/year causing 2% of rail-way traffie to divert to road transport.
ANNEX 11
Table 8
TRACK MAINTENANCE EQUIPMENT - RENEWAL
Costs and Benefits
(CFAF Million)
C2 Bl 2/Ci i/ Operating Costs
Year Investment Costs ot E4urpmênt Savings in Labor
1977 52
1978 103
1979 18 2.0 106.8
1980 2.0 106.8
1.981 2.0 106.8
1982 2.0 106.8
1983 2.0 106.8
1984 2.0 106.8
1985 2.0 106.8
1986 2.0 106.8
1987 2.0 106.8
1988 2.0 106.8
1/ Economic life of equipment assumed to be 10 years.
2/ Labor saved valued at shadow price.
ANNEX ilTable 9
TRACK MAINTENANCE EQUIPMENT FOR FURTHER MECHANIZATION
Costs and Benefits
(CFAF Million)
C2Cl 1/ Operating Costs Bl 2/
Year Investment Costs of Equipment Savings in Labor
1977 59
1978 188
1979 19 4.3 61.9
1980 4.3 61.9
1981 4.3 61.9
1982 4.3 61.9
1983 4.3 61.9
1984 4.3 61.9
1985 4.3 61.9
1986 4.3 61.9
1987 4.3 61.9
1988 4.3 61.9
1/ Economic life of equipment assumed to be 10 years.
2/ Labor saved valued at shadow price.
ANNEX 12Page 1
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA
REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
Assumptions Used to Forecast RAN's Financial Statements
1. Income Accounts
1.1 Revenue from freight and passenger traffic is based on trafficforecasts in Annexes 5 and 6. Revenue per ton-km is kept constant at theend-1976 level, as both the average transport distance for freight and the
mixture of high- and low-rated commodities are expected to remain virtuallyunchanged. Revenue per pass-km is expected to increase in 1978-1980 by1.5% beyond the end-1976 level and by an additional 1.5% thereafter, due
to the introduction of a new rapid train service in 1977 for which a tariffsurcharge is planned. Revenue per pass-km will not be influenced by theshare of first-class passenger traffic which will remain virtually unchanged
below 5%, nor by the increased average distance of passenger traffic becausethere is virtually no taper in the tariff for the range of distances underconsideration.
1.2 Miscellaneous revenue includes mostly the Service des Wagons-litset des Hotels du Tourisme and works executed by force account. The rapid
increase from 1975 to 1977 is caused by a more complete inclusion of revenuefrom force account works. Only moderate increases are expected thereafter.
1.3 According to agreements reached with RAN, rate increases until1979 will help to produce a working ratio of less than 75% in that year,excluding Government contributions. Hence, they are expected to offsetinflationary cost increases and, additionally, to generate cumulative revenue
increases in constant prices of about 17.5%, divided into three steps of 4%
in 1977 and 6.5% in each of the years 1978 and 1979. Rate increases during
the remainder of the forecast period are expected to suffice to maintain the1979 working ratio of 73%. The resulting average revenue increases generated
by rate increases are as follows, the 1977 figure being based on actuallyimplemented increases:
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
12% 15% 15% 9.5% 8.6% 9.7%
1.4 Staff costs are based on RAN's 1977 budget and on the followingstaff numbers which were agreed upon at negotiations:
ANNEX 12Page 2
RAN: Staff Numbers as of December 1976 to 1982
Motive Power Ways Studies andand and Departmental Adminis-
Operations Rolling Stock Works Forces SWLHT tration Total
1976 1/ 1050 1750 1350 218 272 460 5100
1977 1120 1770 1250 218 272 470 5200
1978 1130 1742 1350 218 280 480 5200
1979 1190 1740 1310 220 280 500 5240
1980 1210 1740 1280 220 280 510 5240
1981 1240 1780 1300 220 280 520 5340
1982 1260 1820 1330 220 280 530 5440
1/ There are, in addition, about 800 temporary staff for works executed byforce account. Their number is expected to remain constant during theforecast period.
Cost per staff member is expected to increase in constant prices by 5% p.a.due to merit and seniority increases and employment of higher qualified staff.Social security charges and other staff benefits are expected to remain atthe present level of about 23% of total staff costs through 1979 and toincrease thereafter to about 25%, corresponding to an additional increase intotal staff costs in 1980 of 2.5%. The rapid increase of staff costs in1977 compared to 1976 is being caused, additionally, by a 3 percentage pointincrease in the portion of social security charges, and by the inclusion, forthe first time, of the cost of temporary staff for force account work.
1.5 Fuel costs will grow in proportion to gross ton-km, the latterbeing 2.2 x freight ton-km+0.4x pass-km. 60% of other costs are a functionof gross ton-km, and 40% are a function of staff costs. Interest on Bankoverdrafts is shown separately.
1.6 Depreciation is based on (i) the rates used by RAN, which aresatisfactory, and (ii) RAN's historic asset valuation. RAN is now reval-uating its assets at replacement values, which will allow calculation ofmore realistic depreciation allowances.
1.7 Government contributions to subsidize RAN's operating costs arecalculated until 1977 according to RAN's Articles of Agreement, i.e. 60% ofthe costs of maintenance of ways and works which are expected to increase
ANNEX 12Page 3
proportionally to the corresponding staff costs. The amounts shown for1980 and later correspond to one-third of the amounts due under the presentarrangement.
1.8 Future inflation in the Ivory Coast is expected, according to theBank's economic report, to be on the order of 7 to 8.4%. This report usesan annual inflationary increase of working expenses of 8%.
2. Sources and Applications of Funds and Balance Sheets
2.1 Government contributions for maintenance and renewal, including theGovernment's share of RAN's debt service, are expected to be paid after 1977with about one year's delay on the expenses incurred by RAN. The Governmentspay to RAN 60% of the service for the debt incurred by RAN for partly reim-bursable expenses. Additional infrastructure (line extensions and trackdoubling) is to be paid promptly and entirely by the Governments, and it isassumed that RAN will not incur any debt for these works. It is additionallyassumed that: (i) the Governments will pay in 1978/79 the amounts due forearlier years, and (ii) in 1979 the subsidy scheme will be rearranged in sucha way that from 1980 onwards contributions will amount to only one-third ofwhat they would be under present arrangements (cf. Table 1). A simple across-the-board reduction has been assumed, which is, evdiently, only one of manypossibilities.
2.2 Debt service is calculated for existing debt on actual terms and foradditional loans, excluding those for the proposed project, on assumed terms,including an interest rate of 8% and repayment in 13 annuities after 2 yearsof grace. This reflects the average terms of borrowing which RAN should beable to obtain. Expected CIDA on-lending conditions are, based on indicationsgiven by CIDA: 4% interest, 7 years of grace, thereafter 23 annuities. ForBank and IDA terms cf. para. 4.19 and 7.04 of the main report.
2.3 Receivables (excluding the Government's short-term debts to RANand expected disbursements on long-term loans, which are included in RAN's1975 figure) increased from 13% of operating revenue in 1973 to 18% in 1975.An average figure of 15% is expected for 1977 and thereafter. Expecteddisbursements on long-term loans have been excluded from the forecasts.
2.4 Stores are presently at an acceptable level. They are beingmaintained at 15% of annual working expenses.
2.5 Payables are expected to be reduced to the previous level of about13% of working expenses plus capital investment, once present liquidityproblems have been solved.
2.6 Cash on hand is kept at a minimum of 10% of payroll, the shortfalluntil 1978 being covered through Bank overdrafts.
RAN
Government Contributions l/
(CFAF million)
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Amounts due for FY for:
Maintenance 922 926 1030 1173 1357 1569Renewal 745 735 770 155 590 660Additional infrastructure
(100% of cost) 661 1624 1474 1438 1438 1500Debt service:
Existing debt 249 223 289 356 355 355New debt - - 153 280 500 650
Total due for FY 2577 3508 3716 3402 4240 4734
Amounts paid in FY for:
Maintenance, renewal, debt service 1639 1716 1889 2242 1964 2802Additional infrastructure 2285 1474 1438 1438 1500Balances due 469 787 432 - - -Total paid in FY 2108 4788 3790 3680 3402 4302
Receivable as of Dec. 31 3127 3596 2316 2242 1964 2802 3234
Source: RAN and Mission estimatesAugust 1977
-/amounts calculated according to agreements reached at negotiations. Reductions which are expected
after 1979 and are otherwise reflected in this report have not been made in this table.
~t1j'-.1X
IVORY COAST/UPPER VOLTA REGIONAL RAILWAY PROJECT
RAN ORGANIZATION
BOARD OF DIRECTORS
L GENERAL MANAGER
ASSISTANT GENERALMANAGER
GENERAL INSPECTOR FOR R EPR RESENTATIVE
MANAGER IN UPPER VOLTA
ADMINISTATIVE FI NCIAL OERATIONSSTUDIES & COMRIL MOTIVE POWER TRACK &OPERATIONS CIVIL WORKS COMRIL & ROLLING STOCK WORKSADINSTATV FIANIA rr r MANAGER,
MANAGER MA AGER MANAGER MANAGER MAAEMANAGER MANAGER
SUPPLIES & SLEEPING CARS TEL ECOMMUNI-TRAINING PERSONNEL MEDICAL SPECIAL S ES SLEEPIN CARS COMPUTING CATIONS & SIG- DOCUMENTATION
DIVISION DEPARTMENT SERVICE POLICE STORES DEPATELS SERVICES NALLING SERVICEDEPARTMENT DEPARTMENT SERVICE
World Bank-17222
RANTRACK & WORKS DEPARTMENT
TRACK CHARACTERISTICS
-Ù ô .> 0 4MAISTN STTIN -J
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YEAR OF TRACK LAYING U 96 9 1 9, 517117 17 9, 9416611-925,92912-12
St 12 ZZ~~~~~~~~9,-93 9 W9... 11-1. 2
LENGTH OF THE RAILS 12 ,,12 14 16. 1. _ 14- _ E
WEL.EO RAILS 3 _ _I O _
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Z~~~ ~~ IENDCCNRT _J 3 __ _ _ ______.___________ ._____.________
EI GRAN ITEOE 1000 LIRE or oj
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LE INSTATI0F STHE ORAIOS
2 36333 =
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S GRANITE 1009 LITRES
WELDED RIS L_IT100 LITR° O
500 LITR > SANTS TON 0
|03 LITRES
EUNE 1976 Oorid E6 o_1722o
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YEA. OF TRAC~~~ -AY-19291-93-1933 93 4 1040-915019-55
LENGTIl OF TUS RAILS 1 011_ 1
WELDEO RAILS Ou0 *à
2 17-01700
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2 CONCRETS 1533
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O 00 LITRES100> ~~~~~700 LITRES
590 LITRES0- SANOSTONE 4- L0T0E
,UNE5 1970
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